1. Prediction of the Probability of Malignancy in Mucinous Cystic Neoplasm of the Pancreas With Ovarian-Type Stroma
- Author
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Kei Ito, Hiroshi Yamaguchi, Yasuhiro Shimizu, Takahiro Urata, Naoto Gotohda, Susumu Hijioka, Takeshi Aoki, Tsuyoshi Sano, Kenji Yamao, Kyoichi Takaori, Masahiro Serikawa, Kojun Okamoto, Wataru Kimura, Kousei Ishigami, Kazuichi Okazaki, Emiri Kita, Minoru Tanabe, Minoru Tada, Keiji Hanada, Hiroyuki Isayama, Akio Katanuma, Michiaki Unno, Takao Ohtsuka, Yuichi Nagakawa, Masanori Sugiyama, Yoshitaka Gotoh, Masafumi Nakamura, and Seiko Hirono
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Adolescent ,CA-19-9 Antigen ,Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism ,Malignancy ,Sensitivity and Specificity ,Gastroenterology ,Young Adult ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Endocrinology ,Carcinoembryonic antigen ,Japan ,Internal medicine ,Internal Medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,Pathological ,Aged ,Probability ,Aged, 80 and over ,Hepatology ,biology ,Receiver operating characteristic ,business.industry ,Ovary ,Area under the curve ,Odds ratio ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Carcinoembryonic Antigen ,Cystic Neoplasm ,Pancreatic Neoplasms ,medicine.anatomical_structure ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,biology.protein ,Female ,030211 gastroenterology & hepatology ,Stromal Cells ,Neoplasms, Cystic, Mucinous, and Serous ,Pancreas ,business - Abstract
OBJECTIVE The aim of the study was to develop a formula for predicting the probability of malignancy of mucinous cystic neoplasm (MCN) of the pancreas with ovarian-type stroma. METHODS A total of 364 patients were enrolled. A total score was calculated as the sum of the approximate integers of the odds ratios of the predictive factors identified by multivariate analysis. The relationship between the total score and pathological results was assessed. RESULTS A total of 321 patients had benign MCN and 43 had malignant MCN. Five possible predictive factors were analyzed: 56 years or older, high serum carcinoembryonic antigen level, high carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level, tumor size of 51 mm or greater, and the presence of mural nodules. The total score was significantly higher in patients with malignant MCN (median, 24; range, 0-37) compared with benign MCN (median, 5; range, 0-33; P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that the area under the curve was 0.86, and the sensitivity and specificity of the total score for discriminating malignant MCNs were 72% and 83%, respectively, using a cut-off value of 22. CONCLUSIONS The current simple formula can predict the malignancy of MCN and may thus contribute to the adequate management of patients with MCN.
- Published
- 2020