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Background Nephron hypertrophy and nephrosclerosis may be important determinants of CKD and mortality. However, studies of outcomes associated with these microstructural features have been limited to small tissue specimens from patients selected for either good kidney health or known kidney disease. Methods To determine whether microstructural features are predictive of progressive CKD and mortality outcomes, we studied patients who underwent a radical nephrectomy for a tumor. Large wedge sections of renal parenchyma distal to the tumor were stained and scanned into high-resolution images; we annotated the cortex and all glomeruli to calculate glomerular volume, cortex volume per glomerulus, and percentage of globally sclerotic glomeruli. Morphometric measurements also included percentages of artery luminal stenosis and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (IF/TA) of the cortex. At follow-up visits every 6-12 months, we determined which patients experienced progressive CKD (defined as dialysis, kidney transplantation, or a 40% decline from postnephrectomy eGFR). Cox models for these outcomes were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, eGFR, and proteinuria. Results Among 936 patients (mean age, 64 years; postnephrectomy baseline eGFR, 48 ml/min per 1.73 m2), 117 progressive CKD events, 183 noncancer deaths, and 116 cancer deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 6.4 years. Larger glomerular volume, larger cortex per glomerulus, and higher percentage of globally sclerotic glomeruli or IF/TA predicted progressive CKD. Higher percentage IF/TA also predicted noncancer mortality. Microstructural features did not predict cancer mortality or recurrence. Conclusions After a radical nephrectomy, larger nephrons and nephrosclerosis predicted progressive CKD, and IF/TA predicted noncancer mortality. Morphometric analysis of renal parenchyma can predict noncancer clinical events in patients long after their radical nephrectomy.

Background Nephrosclerosis, nephron size, and nephron number vary among kidneys transplanted from living donors. However, whether these structural features predict kidney transplant recipient outcomes is unclear. Methods Our study used computed tomography (CT) and implantation biopsy to investigate donated kidney features as predictors of death-censored graft failure at three transplant centers participating in the Aging Kidney Anatomy study. We used global glomerulosclerosis, interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy, artery luminal stenosis, and arteriolar hyalinosis to measure nephrosclerosis; mean glomerular volume, cortex volume per glomerulus, and mean cross-sectional tubular area to measure nephron size; and calculations from CT cortical volume and glomerular density on biopsy to assess nephron number. We also determined the death-censored risk of graft failure with each structural feature after adjusting for the predictive clinical characteristics of donor and recipient. Results The analysis involved 2293 donor-recipient pairs. Mean recipient follow-up was 6.3 years, during which 287 death-censored graft failures and 424 deaths occurred. Factors that predicted death-censored graft failure independent of both donor and recipient clinical characteristics included interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy, larger cortical nephron size (but not nephron number), and smaller medullary volume. In a subset with 12 biopsy section slides, arteriolar hyalinosis also predicted death-censored graft failure. Conclusions Subclinical nephrosclerosis, larger cortical nephron size, and smaller medullary volume in healthy donors modestly predict death-censored graft failure in the recipient, independent of donor or recipient clinical characteristics. These findings provide insights into a graft's "intrinsic quality" at the time of donation, and further support the use of intraoperative biopsies to identify kidney grafts that are at higher risk for failure.