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Background: Reducing cigarettes per day may lower the risk of lung cancer compared with continuing to smoke at the same intensity. Other changes in smoking behaviors, such as increasing cigarette consumption or quitting for a period and relapsing, may also affect lung cancer risk., Methods: We examined changes in smoking status and cigarettes per day among 24 613 Finnish male smokers aged 50-69 years who participated in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study. Longitudinal data on smoking were collected during study follow-up visits 3 times a year (approximately every 4 months) between 1985 and 1993. Incident lung cancer patients through 2012 were identified by the Finnish Cancer Registry. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression., Results: Compared with smoking 20 cigarettes per day continuously across the intervention period, reducing an average of 5 cigarettes per day per year while smoking was associated with a 20% lower risk of lung cancer (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.90). A substantially lower risk of lung cancer was also observed when participants smoked at 50% (RR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.57 to 0.90) and 10% (RR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.83) of study visits, relative to smoked at 100% of study visits., Conclusions: Smokers may lower their risk of lung cancer by reducing smoking intensity (cigarettes per day while smoking) and the time they smoke. However, quitting smoking completely is the most effective way for smokers to reduce their risk of lung cancer., (Published by Oxford University Press 2024.)

Background: In the United States, lung cancer death rates have been declining for decades, primarily as a result of pronounced decreases in cigarette smoking. It is unclear, however, whether there have been similar declines in mortality rates of lung cancer unrelated to smoking. We estimated trends in US lung cancer death rates attributable and not attributable to smoking from 1991 to 2018., Methods: The study included 30- to 79-year-olds in the National Health Interview Survey who were linked to the National Death Index, 1991-2014. Adjusted hazard ratios for smoking status and lung cancer death were estimated, and age-specific population attributable fractions were calculated. Annual population attributable fractions were multiplied by annual US national lung cancer mortality, partitioning rates into smoking-attributable and smoking-unrelated lung cancer deaths. All statistical tests were 2-sided., Results: During 1991-2018, the proportion of never smokers increased among both men (35.1%-54.6%) and women (54.0%-65.4%). Compared with those who had ever smoked, those who had never smoked had 86% lower risk (hazard ratio = 0.14; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.12 to 0.16) of lung cancer death. The fraction of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking decreased from 81.4% (95% CI = 78.9 to 81.4) to 74.7% (95% CI = 78.1 to 71.4). Smoking-attributable lung cancer death rates declined 2.7% per year (95% CI = ‒2.9% to ‒2.5%) and smoking-unrelated lung cancer death rates declined 1.8% per year (95% CI = ‒2.0% to ‒1.5%); these declines have accelerated in recent years., Conclusions: An increasing proportion of lung cancer deaths are unrelated to smoking based on declines in smoking prevalence. Smoking-unrelated lung cancer death rates have declined, however, perhaps because of decreases in secondhand smoke and air pollution exposure as well as treatment improvements., (Published by Oxford University Press 2023.)

Unaffordable housing has been associated with poor health. We investigated the relationship between severe housing cost burden and premature cancer mortality (death before 65 years of age) overall and by Medicaid expansion status. County-level severe housing cost burden was measured by the percentage of households that spend 50% or more of their income on housing. States were classified on the basis of Medicaid expansion status (expanded, late-expanded, nonexpanded). Mortality-adjusted rate ratios were estimated by cancer type across severe housing cost burden quintiles. Compared with the lowest quintile of severe housing cost burden, counties in the highest quintile had a 5% greater cancer mortality rate (mortality-adjusted rate ratio = 1.05, 95% confidence interval = 1.01 to 1.08). Within each severe housing cost burden quintile, cancer mortality rates were greater in states that did not expand Medicaid, though this association was significant only in the fourth quintile (mortality-adjusted rate ratio = 1.08, 95% confidence interval = 1.03 to 1.13). Our findings demonstrate that counties with greater severe housing cost burden had higher premature cancer death rates, and rates are potentially greater in non-Medicaid-expanded states than Medicaid-expanded states., (Published by Oxford University Press 2024.)

Background: Studying carcinogens in tobacco and nontobacco sources may be key to understanding the pathogenesis and geographic distribution of esophageal cancer., Methods: The Golestan Cohort Study has been conducted since 2004 in a region with high rates of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. For this nested study, the cases comprised of all incident cases by January 1, 2018; controls were matched to the case by age, sex, residence, time in cohort, and tobacco use. We measured urinary concentrations of 33 exposure biomarkers of nicotine, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds, and tobacco-specific nitrosamines. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for associations between the 90th vs the 10th percentiles of the biomarker concentrations and incident esophageal squamous cell carcinoma., Results: Among individuals who did not currently use tobacco (148 cases and 163 controls), 2 acrolein metabolites, 2 acrylonitrile metabolites, 1 propylene oxide metabolite, and one 1,3-butadiene metabolite were significantly associated with incident esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (adjusted odds ratios between 1.8 and 4.3). Among tobacco users (57 cases and 63 controls), metabolites of 2 other volatile organic compounds (styrene and xylene) were associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 6.2 and 9.0, respectively). In tobacco users, 2 tobacco-specific nitrosamines (NNN and N'-Nitrosoanatabine) were also associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Suggestive associations were seen with some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (especially 2-hydroxynaphthalene) in nonusers of tobacco products and other tobacco-specific nitrosamines in tobacco users., Conclusion: These novel associations based on individual-level data and samples collected many years before cancer diagnosis, from a population without occupational exposure, have important public health implications., (Published by Oxford University Press 2023.)

Background: Opioid safety initiatives may secondarily impact opioid prescribing and pain outcomes for cancer care., Methods: We reviewed electronic health record data at a tertiary Veterans Affairs system (VA Palo Alto) for all patients from 2015 to 2021. We collected outpatient Schedule II opioid prescriptions data and calculated morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs) using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conversion formulas. To determine the clinical impact of changes in opioid prescription, we used the highest level of pain reported by each patient on the 0-to-10 Numeric Rating Scale in each year, categorized into mild (0-3), moderate (4-6), and severe (7 and above)., Results: Among 89 569 patients, 9073 had a cancer diagnosis. Cancer patients were almost twice as likely to have an opioid prescription compared with noncancer patients (69.0% vs 36.7%, respectively). The proportion of patients who received an opioid prescription decreased from 27.1% to 18.1% (trend P < .01) in cancer patients and from 17.0% to 10.2% in noncancer patients (trend P < .01). Cancer and noncancer patients had similar declines of MMEs per year between 2015 and 2019, but the decline was more rapid for cancer patients (1462.5 to 946.4, 35.3%) compared with noncancer patients (1315.6 to 927.7, 29.5%) from 2019 to 2021. During the study period, the proportion of noncancer patients who experienced severe pain was almost unchanged, whereas it increased among cancer patients, reaching a significantly higher rate than among noncancer patients in 2021 (31.9% vs 27.4%, P < .01)., Conclusions: Our findings suggest potential unintended consequences for cancer care because of efforts to manage opioid-related risks., (Published by Oxford University Press 2024.)

Background: The incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is higher in women than in men but whether sex steroid hormones contribute to this difference remains unclear. Studies of reproductive and hormonal factors and thyroid cancer risk have provided inconsistent results., Methods: Original data from 1 252 907 women in 16 cohorts in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia were combined to evaluate associations of DTC risk with reproductive and hormonal factors. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs., Results: During follow-up, 2142 women were diagnosed with DTC. Factors associated with higher risk of DTC included younger age at menarche (<10 vs 10-11 years; HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.00-1.64), younger (<40; HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.05-1.62) and older (≥55; HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.05-1.68) ages at menopause (vs 40-44 years), ever use of menopausal hormone therapy (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02-1.33) and previous hysterectomy (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.13-1.39) or bilateral oophorectomy (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00-1.29). Factors associated with lower risk included longer-term use (≥5 vs <5 years) of oral contraceptives (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.96) among those who ever used oral contraception and baseline post-menopausal status (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70-0.96). No associations were observed for parity, duration of menopausal hormone therapy use or lifetime number of reproductive years or ovulatory cycles., Conclusions: Our study provides some evidence linking reproductive and hormonal factors with risk of DTC. Results should be interpreted cautiously considering the modest strength of the associations and potential for exposure misclassification and detection bias. Prospective studies of pre-diagnostic circulating sex steroid hormone measurements and DTC risk may provide additional insight., (© The Author(s) 2023; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Background: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been inconsistently associated with breast cancer incidence, however, few studies have considered historic exposure when levels were higher., Methods: Outdoor residential PM2.5 concentrations were estimated using a nationwide spatiotemporal model for women in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study, a prospective cohort located in 6 states (California, Florida, Louisiana, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) and 2 metropolitan areas (Atlanta, GA, and Detroit, MI) and enrolled in 1995-1996 (n = 196 905). Annual average PM2.5 concentrations were estimated for a 5-year historical period 10 years prior to enrollment (1980-1984). We used Cox regression to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and breast cancer incidence overall and by estrogen receptor status and catchment area., Results: With follow-up of participants through 2017, a total of 15 870 breast cancer cases were identified. A 10 ug/m3 increase in PM2.5 was statistically significantly associated with overall breast cancer incidence (HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.13). The association was evident for estrogen receptor-positive (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.17) but not estrogen receptor-negative tumors (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.84 to 1.13; Pheterogeneity = .3). Overall breast cancer hazard ratios were more than 1 across the catchment areas, ranging from a hazard ratio of 1.26 (95% CI = 0.96 to 1.64) for North Carolina to a hazard ratio of 1.04 (95% CI = 0.68 to 1.57) for Louisiana (Pheterogeneity = .9)., Conclusions: In this large US cohort with historical air pollutant exposure estimates, PM2.5 was associated with risk of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. State-specific estimates were imprecise but suggest that future work should consider region-specific associations and the potential contribution of PM2.5 chemical constituency in modifying the observed association., (Published by Oxford University Press 2023.)

Background: We sought to develop a proteomics-based risk model for lung cancer and evaluate its risk-discriminatory performance in comparison with a smoking-based risk model (PLCOm2012) and a commercially available autoantibody biomarker test., Methods: We designed a case-control study nested in 6 prospective cohorts, including 624 lung cancer participants who donated blood samples at most 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis and 624 smoking-matched cancer free participants who were assayed for 302 proteins. We used 470 case-control pairs from 4 cohorts to select proteins and train a protein-based risk model. We subsequently used 154 case-control pairs from 2 cohorts to compare the risk-discriminatory performance of the protein-based model with that of the Early Cancer Detection Test (EarlyCDT)-Lung and the PLCOm2012 model using receiver operating characteristics analysis and by estimating models' sensitivity. All tests were 2-sided., Results: The area under the curve for the protein-based risk model in the validation sample was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.81) compared with 0.64 (95% CI = 0.57 to 0.70) for the PLCOm2012 model (Pdifference = .001). The EarlyCDT-Lung had a sensitivity of 14% (95% CI = 8.2% to 19%) and a specificity of 86% (95% CI = 81% to 92%) for incident lung cancer. At the same specificity of 86%, the sensitivity for the protein-based risk model was estimated at 49% (95% CI = 41% to 57%) and 30% (95% CI = 23% to 37%) for the PLCOm2012 model., Conclusion: Circulating proteins showed promise in predicting incident lung cancer and outperformed a standard risk prediction model and the commercialized EarlyCDT-Lung., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: Starting in 2018, national death certificates included a new racial classification system that accounts for multiple-race decedents and separates Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) individuals from Asian individuals. We estimated cancer death rates across updated racial and ethnic categories, sex, and age., Methods: Age-standardized US cancer mortality rates and rate ratios from 2018 to 2020 among individuals aged 20 years and older were estimated with national death certificate data by race and ethnicity, sex, age, and cancer site., Results: In 2018, there were approximately 597 000 cancer deaths, 598 000 in 2019, and 601 000 in 2020. Among men, cancer death rates were highest in Black men (298.2 per 100 000; n = 105 632), followed by White (250.8; n = 736 319), American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN; 249.2; n = 3376), NHPI (205.6; n = 1080), Latino (177.2; n = 66 167), and Asian (147.9; n = 26 591) men. Among women, Black women had the highest cancer death rates (206.5 per 100 000; n = 104 437), followed by NHPI (192.1; n = 1141), AI/AN (189.9; n = 3239), White (183.0; n = 646 865), Latina (128.4; n = 61 579), and Asian (111.4; n = 26 396) women. The highest death rates by age group occurred among NHPI individuals aged 20-49 years and Black individuals aged 50-69 and 70 years and older. Asian individuals had the lowest cancer death rates across age groups. Compared with Asian individuals, total cancer death rates were 39% higher in NHPI men and 73% higher in NHPI women., Conclusions: There were striking racial and ethnic disparities in cancer death rates during 2018-2020. Separating NHPI and Asian individuals revealed large differences in cancer mortality between 2 groups that were previously combined in vital statistics data., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Data sharing is essential for reproducibility of epidemiologic research, replication of findings, pooled analyses in consortia efforts, and maximizing study value to address multiple research questions. However, barriers related to confidentiality, costs, and incentives often limit the extent and speed of data sharing. Epidemiological practices that follow Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable (FAIR) principles can address these barriers by making data resources findable with the necessary metadata, accessible to authorized users, and interoperable with other data, to optimize the reuse of resources with appropriate credit to its creators. We provide an overview of these principles and describe approaches for implementation in epidemiology. Increasing degrees of FAIRness can be achieved by moving data and code from on-site locations to remote, accessible ("Cloud") data servers, using machine-readable and nonproprietary files, and developing open-source code. Adoption of these practices will improve daily work and collaborative analyses and facilitate compliance with data sharing policies from funders and scientific journals. Achieving a high degree of FAIRness will require funding, training, organizational support, recognition, and incentives for sharing research resources, both data and code. However, these costs are outweighed by the benefits of making research more reproducible, impactful, and equitable by facilitating the reuse of precious research resources by the scientific community., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2023.)

Background: Previous studies had limited power to assess the associations of circulating insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) with clinically relevant prostate cancer as a primary endpoint, and the association of genetically predicted IGF-I with aggressive prostate cancer is not known. We aimed to investigate the associations of IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 concentrations with overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer., Methods: Prospective analysis of biomarkers using the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group dataset (up to 20 studies, 17 009 prostate cancer cases, including 2332 aggressive cases). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression. For IGF-I, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was undertaken using instruments identified using UK Biobank (158 444 men) and outcome data from PRACTICAL (up to 85 554 cases, including 15 167 aggressive cases). Additionally, we used colocalization to rule out confounding by linkage disequilibrium., Results: In observational analyses, IGF-I was positively associated with risks of overall (OR per 1 SD = 1.09: 95% CI 1.07, 1.11), aggressive (1.09: 1.03, 1.16) and possibly early-onset disease (1.11: 1.00, 1.24); associations were similar in MR analyses (OR per 1 SD = 1.07: 1.00, 1.15; 1.10: 1.01, 1.20; and 1.13; 0.98, 1.30, respectively). Colocalization also indicated a shared signal for IGF-I and prostate cancer (PP4: 99%). Men with higher IGF-II (1.06: 1.02, 1.11) and IGFBP-3 (1.08: 1.04, 1.11) had higher risks of overall prostate cancer, whereas higher IGFBP-1 was associated with a lower risk (0.95: 0.91, 0.99); these associations were attenuated following adjustment for IGF-I., Conclusions: These findings support the role of IGF-I in the development of prostate cancer, including for aggressive disease., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Background: Previous studies suggested associations between the oral microbiome and lung cancer, but studies were predominantly cross-sectional and underpowered., Methods: Using a case-cohort design, 1306 incident lung cancer cases were identified in the Agricultural Health Study; National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study; and Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Referent subcohorts were randomly selected by strata of age, sex, and smoking history. DNA was extracted from oral wash specimens using the DSP DNA Virus Pathogen kit, the 16S rRNA gene V4 region was amplified and sequenced, and bioinformatics were conducted using QIIME 2. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using weighted Cox proportional hazards models., Results: Higher alpha diversity was associated with lower lung cancer risk (Shannon index hazard ratio = 0.90, 95% confidence interval = 0.84 to 0.96). Specific principal component vectors of the microbial communities were also statistically significantly associated with lung cancer risk. After multiple testing adjustment, greater relative abundance of 3 genera and presence of 1 genus were associated with greater lung cancer risk, whereas presence of 3 genera were associated with lower risk. For example, every SD increase in Streptococcus abundance was associated with 1.14 times the risk of lung cancer (95% confidence interval = 1.06 to 1.22). Associations were strongest among squamous cell carcinoma cases and former smokers., Conclusions: Multiple oral microbial measures were prospectively associated with lung cancer risk in 3 US cohort studies, with associations varying by smoking history and histologic subtype. The oral microbiome may offer new opportunities for lung cancer prevention., (Published by Oxford University Press 2022.)

Motivation: The Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics (DCEG) and the Division of Cancer Prevention (DCP) at the National Cancer Institute (NCI) have recently generated genome-wide association study (GWAS) data for multiple traits in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Genomic Atlas project. The GWAS included 110 000 participants. The dissemination of the genetic association data through a data portal called GWAS Explorer, in a manner that addresses the modern expectations of FAIR reusability by data scientists and engineers, is the main motivation for the development of the open-source JavaScript software development kit (SDK) reported here., Results: The PLCO GWAS Explorer resource relies on a public stateless HTTP application programming interface (API) deployed as the sole backend service for both the landing page's web application and third-party analytical workflows. The core PLCOjs SDK is mapped to each of the API methods, and also to each of the reference graphic visualizations in the GWAS Explorer. A few additional visualization methods extend it. As is the norm with web SDKs, no download or installation is needed and modularization supports targeted code injection for web applications, reactive notebooks (Observable) and node-based web services., Availability and Implementation: code at https://github.com/episphere/plco; project page at https://episphere.github.io/plco., (Published by Oxford University Press 2022.)

Background: Increasing proportions of smokers in Japan smoke <10 cigarettes per day (CPD). Yet, the health risks of low-intensity smoking in Asia are poorly understood., Methods: We performed a pooled analysis of 410 294 adults from nine population-based prospective cohort studies participating in the Japan Cohort Consortium. Cigarette-use data were collected at each study baseline in 1983-1994. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression by CPD among current smokers and by age at cessation among former smokers, with never smokers as the referent group. Pooled HRs and CIs were computed using a random-effect model., Results: The smoking prevalence was 54.5% in men and 7.4% in women. About 15.5% of male and 50.4% of female current smokers smoked 1-10 CPD (low-intensity). Both male and female low-intensity smokers had higher all-cause mortality risks than never smokers. Risks were further higher with increasing CPD in a dose-response manner. HRs (95% CIs) were 1.27 (0.97-1.66), 1.45 (1.33-1.59) and 1.49 (1.38-1.62) for 1-2, 3-5 and 6-10 CPD, respectively, in men; 1.28 (1.01-1.62), 1.49 (1.34-1.66) and 1.68 (1.55-1.81) for 1-2, 3-5 and 6-10 CPD, respectively, in women. Similar associations were observed for smoking-related causes of death. Among former low-intensity smokers, younger age at cessation was associated with lower mortality risk., Conclusions: Smoking very low amounts was associated with increased mortality risks in Japan. All smokers should quit, even if they smoke very few CPD., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2021. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Human studies investigating the prospective relationship between microbial metabolites and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk are lacking. We tested whether higher serum bile acids (BAs) and lower short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) were associated with CRC risk., Methods: In baseline serum collected more than 30 years before a CRC diagnosis, we quantified concentrations of 15 BAs and 6 SCFAs using targeted liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry  assays in 1:1 matched cases and controls from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial (men: n = 262 cases; women: n = 233 cases) and the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study (men: n = 598 cases). We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for BA and SCFA quartiles and summary measures with CRC overall and by anatomic location using multivariable conditional logistic regression models. PLCO analyses were stratified by sex. All statistical tests were 2-sided., Results: In PLCO women, 7 BAs were strongly associated with increased CRC risk, including the secondary BAs, deoxycholic (ORQ4 v Q1 = 2.85, 95% CI = 1.45 to 5.60, Qtrend = 0.011), glycodeoxycholic (OR Q4 v Q1 = 3.45, 95% CI = 1.79 to 6.64, Qtrend = 0.006), taurodeoxycholic (OR Q4 v Q1 = 2.36, 95% CI = 1.22 to 4.55, Qtrend = 0.023), and glycolithocholic acid (ORQ4 v Q1 = 2.71, 95% CI = 1.41 to 5.22, Qtrend = 0.015). Women in the highest compared with lowest quartile of total SCFAs had a 45% lower risk of CRC (OR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.31 to 0.98, Ptrend = .03). Associations for total BAs and SCFAs were strongest among women with proximal colon cancer. No statistically significant associations were observed for BA or SCFA measures among men., Conclusions: Serum concentrations of BAs, particularly downstream microbial metabolites of cholic acid, were strongly associated with increased risk of CRC among women., (Published by Oxford University Press 2022. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: In 2021, the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) revised its lung cancer screening guidelines to expand screening eligibility. We evaluated screening sensitivities and racial and ethnic disparities under the 2021 USPSTF criteria vs alternative risk-based criteria in a racially and ethnically diverse population., Methods: In the Multiethnic Cohort, we evaluated the proportion of ever-smoking lung cancer cases eligible for screening (ie, screening sensitivity) under the 2021 USPSTF criteria and under risk-based criteria through the PLCOm2012 model (6-year risk ≥1.51%). We also calculated the screening disparity (ie, absolute sensitivity difference) for each of 4 racial or ethnic groups (African American, Japanese American, Latino, Native Hawaiian) vs White cases., Results: Among 5900 lung cancer cases, 43.3% were screen eligible under the 2021 USPSTF criteria. Screening sensitivities varied by race and ethnicity, with Native Hawaiian (56.7%) and White (49.6%) cases attaining the highest sensitivities and Latino (37.3%), African American (38.4%), and Japanese American (40.0%) cases attaining the lowest. Latino cases had the greatest screening disparity vs White cases at 12.4%, followed by African American (11.2%) and Japanese American (9.6%) cases. Under risk-based screening, the overall screening sensitivity increased to 75.7%, and all racial and ethnic groups had increased sensitivities (54.5%-91.9%). Whereas the screening disparity decreased to 5.1% for African American cases, it increased to 28.6% for Latino cases and 12.8% for Japanese American cases., Conclusions: In the Multiethnic Cohort, racial and ethnic disparities decreased but persisted under the 2021 USPSTF lung cancer screening guidelines. Risk-based screening through PLCOm2012 may increase screening sensitivities and help to reduce disparities in some, but not all, racial and ethnic groups. Further optimization of risk-based screening strategies across diverse populations is needed., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: Higher circulating vitamin D has been associated with improved overall cancer survival, but data for organ-specific cancers are mixed., Methods: We examined the association between prediagnostic serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], the recognized biomarker of vitamin D status, and cancer survival in 4038 men and women diagnosed with 1 of 11 malignancies during 22 years of follow-up (median = 15.6 years) within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards regression estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between baseline 25(OH)D concentration and subsequent cancer survival; we also stratified on the common vitamin D binding protein isoforms (Gc1f, Gc1s, and Gc2) defined by two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (rs7041 and rs4588) in the vitamin D binding protein gene GC. All P values were 2-sided., Results: Higher 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with greater overall cancer survival (HR for cancer mortality = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.98 for highest vs lowest quintile; Ptrend = .05) and lung cancer survival (HR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.44 to 0.90; Ptrend = .03). These associations were limited to cases expressing the Gc2 isoform (HR = 0.38 for Gc2-2, 95% CI = 0.14 to 1.05 for highest vs lowest quintile; Ptrend = .02; and HR = 0.30 for Gc1-2/Gc2-2 combined, 95% CI = 0.16 to 0.56; Ptrend < .001 for overall and lung cancer, respectively)., Conclusions: Higher circulating 25(OH)D was associated with improved overall and lung cancer survival. As this was especially evident among cases with the genetically determined Gc2 isoform of vitamin D binding protein, such individuals may gain a cancer survival advantage by maintaining higher 25(OH)D blood concentrations., (Published by Oxford University Press 2022. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Increasing numbers of adults in the United States use more than 1 tobacco product. Most use cigarettes in combination with other tobacco products. However, little is known about the all-cause and cancer-specific mortality risks of dual- and poly-tobacco-product use. We examined these associations by pooling nationally representative data from the 1991, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2005, and 2010 National Health Interview Surveys (n = 118,144). Mortality information was obtained through linkage to the National Death Index. Cigarette smokers who additionally used other tobacco products smoked as many if not more cigarettes per day than exclusive cigarette smokers. Furthermore, cigarette smokers who additionally used other tobacco products had mortality risks that were as high as and sometimes higher than those of exclusive cigarette smokers. As tobacco use patterns continue to change and diversify, investigators in future studies need to carefully assess the impact of noncigarette tobacco products on cigarette use and determine associated disease risks., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2019.)

Background: With advancing therapeutics, lung cancer (LC) survivors are rapidly increasing in number. Although mounting evidence suggests LC survivors have high risk of second primary lung cancer (SPLC), there is no validated prediction model available for clinical use to identify high-risk LC survivors for SPLC., Methods: Using data from 6325 ever-smokers in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) study diagnosed with initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) in 1993-2017, we developed a prediction model for 10-year SPLC risk after IPLC diagnosis using cause-specific Cox regression. We evaluated the model's clinical utility using decision curve analysis and externally validated it using 2 population-based data-Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST)-that included 2963 and 2844 IPLC (101 and 93 SPLC cases), respectively., Results: Over 14 063 person-years, 145 (2.3%) ever-smoking IPLC patients developed SPLC in MEC. Our prediction model demonstrated a high predictive accuracy (Brier score = 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.4 to 3.3) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics [AUC] = 81.9%, 95% CI = 78.2% to 85.5%) based on bootstrap validation in MEC. Stratification by the estimated risk quartiles showed that the observed SPLC incidence was statistically significantly higher in the 4th vs 1st quartile (9.5% vs 0.2%; P < .001). Decision curve analysis indicated that in a wide range of 10-year risk thresholds from 1% to 20%, the model yielded a larger net-benefit vs hypothetical all-screening or no-screening scenarios. External validation using PLCO and NLST showed an AUC of 78.8% (95% CI = 74.6% to 82.9%) and 72.7% (95% CI = 67.7% to 77.7%), respectively., Conclusions: We developed and validated a SPLC prediction model based on large population-based cohorts. The proposed prediction model can help identify high-risk LC patients for SPLC and can be incorporated into clinical decision making for SPLC surveillance and screening., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: In response to the US opioid epidemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated their guideline on prescription opioids for chronic pain management in March 2016. The aim of this study was to provide detailed analysis of trends in opioid claims among cancer patients in the United States during 2013-2018., Methods: We analyzed pharmaceutical dispensing data from Symphony Health's Integrated Dataverse database, which covers approximately 80% of the US population. We examined annual trends in dispensed opioids in cancer patients during 2013-2018. We examined quarterly trends of the prevalence, mean number of days, and dose (stated as morphine milligram equivalents) of opioid dispensing in cancer patients., Results: Dispensing records of an average of over 3.7 million cancer patients contributed to the study annually in 2013-2018. The annual prevalence of opioid dispensing claims declined from 40.2% in 2013 to 34.5% in 2018. Annual declines occurred across cancer sites, and particularly among patients with metastatic cancer (decline of 19.8%), breast cancer (18.2%), and lung cancer (13.8%). By quarter, the prevalence of opioid claims declined statistically significantly from 26.6% in Q1 2013 to 21.2% in Q4 2018; this decline was more pronounced after Q3 2016 (2-sided P  =   .004). Both quarterly trends in mean days and morphine milligram equivalents of opioids supplied showed a gradual decline from 2013 to 2018, with a slightly larger decline after 2016., Conclusions: We observed a decline in opioid use among cancer patients, particularly after 2016, coinciding with the publication of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guideline on prescription opioids for chronic pain management., (Published by Oxford University Press 2021. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Cancer risk is elevated in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). A comprehensive investigation of cancer risk in older patients (≥66 years of age) is needed, because this understudied population is at high risk., Methods: We performed a case-control study using Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare data including 1 986 735 incident cancer cases (aged 66-99 years; diagnosed 1992-2015) and 200 000 controls matched by sex, age, race and ethnicity, and selection year. IBD was identified by ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn's disease (CD) diagnosis codes. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. For colorectal cancers, we further adjusted for screening rates. We assessed confounding by medication exposure among patients with prescription drug coverage., Results: IBD, CD, and UC were present in 0.8%, 0.3%, and 0.5% in both cancer cases and non-cancer controls. Of 51 cancers examined, IBD was statistically significantly associated with cancers of the small intestine (OR = 2.55, 95% CI = 2.15 to 3.01), intrahepatic (OR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.47 to 2.51) and extrahepatic bile ducts (OR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.38 to 2.22), rectum (OR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.36 to 1.90), and colon (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.33). CD was associated with cancers of the small intestine (OR = 4.55, 95% CI = 3.65 to 5.67), and UC was associated with cancers of the intrahepatic bile ducts (OR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.34 to 2.61), rectum (OR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.47 to 2.20), and colon (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.14 to 1.43). After adjusting for medication exposure, IBD was not statistically significantly associated with lung cancer, melanoma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, and myelodysplastic syndrome., Conclusions: In this large study among older adults (≥66 years of age), IBD was positively associated with gastrointestinal cancers. Associations with extraintestinal cancers may reflect the effect of immunosuppressive medications., (Published by Oxford University Press 2021. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Coffee consumption has been associated with a reduced risk of some cancers, but the evidence for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is inconclusive. We investigated the relationship between coffee and RCC within a large cohort., Methods: Coffee intake was assessed at baseline in the National Institutes of Health-American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health Study. Among 420 118 participants eligible for analysis, 2674 incident cases were identified. We fitted Cox-regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for coffee consumption vs non-drinkers., Results: We observed HRs of 0.94 (95% CI 0.81, 1.09), 0.94 (0.81, 1.09), 0.80 (0.70, 0.92) and 0.77 (0.66, 0.90) for usual coffee intake of <1, 1, 2-3 and ≥4 cups/day, respectively (Ptrend = 0.00003). This relationship was observed among never-smokers (≥4 cups/day: HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.46, 0.83; Ptrend = 0.000003) but not ever-smokers (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.70, 1.05; Ptrend = 0.35; Pinteraction = 0.0009) and remained in analyses restricted to cases diagnosed >10 years after baseline (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.51, 0.82; Ptrend = 0.0005). Associations were similar between subgroups who drank predominately caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee (Pinteraction = 0.74)., Conclusion: In this investigation of coffee and RCC, to our knowledge the largest to date, we observed a 20% reduced risk for intake of ≥2 cups/day vs not drinking. Our findings add RCC to the growing list of cancers for which coffee consumption may be protective., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2021. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Alcohol is an established risk factor for several cancers, but modest alcohol-cancer associations may be missed because of measurement error in self-reported assessments. Biomarkers of habitual alcohol intake may provide novel insight into the relationship between alcohol and cancer risk., Methods: Untargeted metabolomics was used to identify metabolites correlated with self-reported habitual alcohol intake in a discovery dataset from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC; n = 454). Statistically significant correlations were tested in independent datasets of controls from case-control studies nested within EPIC (n = 280) and the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC; n = 438) study. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of alcohol-associated metabolites and self-reported alcohol intake with risk of pancreatic cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver cancer, and liver disease mortality in the contributing studies., Results: Two metabolites displayed a dose-response association with self-reported alcohol intake: 2-hydroxy-3-methylbutyric acid and an unidentified compound. A 1-SD (log2) increase in levels of 2-hydroxy-3-methylbutyric acid was associated with risk of HCC (OR = 2.54, 95% CI = 1.51 to 4.27) and pancreatic cancer (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.99) in EPIC and liver cancer (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.44 to 2.77) and liver disease mortality (OR = 2.16, 95% CI = 1.63 to 2.86) in ATBC. Conversely, a 1-SD (log2) increase in questionnaire-derived alcohol intake was not associated with HCC or pancreatic cancer in EPIC or liver cancer in ATBC but was associated with liver disease mortality (OR = 2.19, 95% CI = 1.60 to 2.98) in ATBC., Conclusions: 2-hydroxy-3-methylbutyric acid is a candidate biomarker of habitual alcohol intake that may advance the study of alcohol and cancer risk in population-based studies., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are highly persistent chemicals that have been detected in the serum of over 98% of the US population. Studies among highly exposed individuals suggest an association with perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) exposure and kidney cancer. It remains unclear whether PFOA or other PFAS are renal carcinogens or if they influence risk of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) at concentrations observed in the general population., Methods: We measured prediagnostic serum concentrations of PFOA and 7 additional PFAS in 324 RCC cases and 324 individually matched controls within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) relating serum PFAS concentrations and RCC risk. Individual PFAS were modeled continuously (log2-transformed) and categorically, with adjustment for kidney function and additional potential confounders. All statistical tests were 2-sided., Results: We observed a positive association with RCC risk for PFOA (doubling in serum concentration, ORcontinuous = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.23 to 2.37, P = .002) and a greater than twofold increased risk among those in the highest quartile vs the lowest (OR = 2.63, 95% CI = 1.33 to 5.20, Ptrend = .007). The association with PFOA was similar after adjustment for other PFAS (ORcontinuous = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.07 to 2.63, P = .02) and remained apparent in analyses restricted to individuals without evidence of diminished kidney function and in cases diagnosed 8 or more years after phlebotomy., Conclusions: Our findings add substantially to the weight of evidence that PFOA is a renal carcinogen and may have important public health implications for the many individuals exposed to this ubiquitous and highly persistent chemical., (Published by Oxford University Press 2020.)

Background: Pediatric cancers are the leading cause of death by disease in children despite improved survival rates overall. The contribution of germline genetic susceptibility to pediatric cancer survivors has not been extensively characterized. We assessed the frequency of pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in 5451 long-term pediatric cancer survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study., Methods: Exome sequencing was conducted on germline DNA from 5451 pediatric cancer survivors (cases who survived ≥5 years from diagnosis; n = 5105 European) and 597 European cancer-free adults (controls). Analyses focused on comparing the frequency of rare P/LP variants in 237 cancer-susceptibility genes and a subset of 60 autosomal dominant high-to-moderate penetrance genes, for both case-case and case-control comparisons., Results: Of European cases, 4.1% harbored a P/LP variant in high-to-moderate penetrance autosomal dominant genes compared with 1.3% in controls (2-sided P  = 3 × 10 -4 ). The highest frequency of P/LP variants was in genes typically associated with adult onset rather than pediatric cancers, including BRCA1/2 , FH , PALB2 , PMS2 , and CDKN2A . A statistically significant excess of P/LP variants, after correction for multiple tests, was detected in patients with central nervous system cancers ( NF1 , SUFU , TSC1 , PTCH2 ), Wilms tumor ( WT1 , REST ), non-Hodgkin lymphoma ( PMS2 ), and soft tissue sarcomas ( SDHB , DICER1 , TP53 , ERCC4 , FGFR3 ) compared with other pediatric cancers., Conclusion: In long-term pediatric cancer survivors, we identified P/LP variants in cancer-susceptibility genes not previously associated with pediatric cancer as well as confirmed known associations. Further characterization of variants in these genes in pediatric cancer will be important to provide optimal genetic counseling for patients and their families., (Published by Oxford University Press 2021. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Coffee has been consistently associated with lower risk of liver cancer and chronic liver disease, suggesting that coffee affects mechanisms underlying disease development., Methods: We measured serum metabolites using untargeted metabolomics in 1:1 matched nested case-control studies of liver cancer (n = 221 cases) and fatal liver disease (n = 242 cases) in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention cohort (n = 29 133). Associations between baseline coffee drinking and metabolites were identified using linear regression; conditional logistic regression models were used to identify associations with subsequent outcomes., Results: Overall, 21 metabolites were associated with coffee drinking and also each subsequent endpoint; nine metabolites and trigonelline, a known coffee biomarker, were identified. Tyrosine and two bile acids, glycochenodeoxycholic acid (GCDCA) and glycocholic acid (GCA), were inversely associated with coffee but positively associated with both outcomes; odds ratios (ORs) comparing the 90th to 10th percentile (modeled on a continuous basis) ranged from 3.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.00 to 7.74) for tyrosine to 4.95 (95% CI = 2.64 to 9.29) for GCA and from 4.00 (95% CI = 2.42 to 6.62) for GCA to 6.77 (95% CI = 3.62 to 12.65) for GCDCA for liver cancer and fatal liver disease, respectively. The remaining six metabolites and trigonelline were positively associated with coffee drinking but inversely associated with both outcomes; odds ratio ranged from 0.16 to 0.37. Associations persisted following diet adjustment and for outcomes occurring greater than 10 years after blood collection., Conclusions: A broad range of compounds were associated with coffee drinking, incident liver cancer, and liver disease death over 27 years of follow-up. These associations provide novel insight into chronic liver disease and liver cancer etiology and support a possible hepatoprotective effect of coffee., (Published by Oxford University Press 2019. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: The contribution of measurable immunological and inflammatory parameters to lung cancer development remains unclear, particularly among never smokers. We investigated the relationship between total and differential white blood cell (WBC) counts and incident lung cancer risk overall and among subgroups defined by smoking status and sex in the United Kingdom (UK)., Methods: We evaluated 424 407 adults aged 37-73 years from the UK Biobank. Questionnaires, physical measurements, and blood were administered and collected at baseline in 2006-2010. Complete blood cell counts were measured using standard methods. Lung cancer diagnoses and histological classifications were obtained from cancer registries. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals of incident lung cancer in relation to quartiles (Q) of total WBC and subtype-specific counts, with Q1 as the reference., Results: There were 1493 incident cases diagnosed over an average 7-year follow-up. Overall, the highest quartile of total WBC count was statistically significantly associated with elevated lung cancer risk (HR Q4 = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.41 to 1.98). Among women, increased risks were found in current smokers ( n cases / n  = 244 / 19 464, HR Q4 = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.46 to 3.16), former smokers ( n cases / n  = 280 / 69 198, HR Q4 = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.24 to 2.47), and never smokers without environmental tobacco smoke exposure (n cases / n = 108 / 111 294, HR Q4 = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.11 to 3.35). Among men, stronger associations were identified in current smokers (n case s / n  = 329 / 22 934, HR Q4 = 2.95, 95% CI = 2.04 to 4.26) and former smokers ( n c ases / n  = 358/71 616, HR Q4 = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.74 to 3.27) but not in never smokers. Findings were similar for lung adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma and were driven primarily by elevated neutrophil fractions., Conclusions: Elevated WBCs could potentially be one of many important markers for increased lung cancer risk, especially among never-smoking women and ever-smoking men., (Published by Oxford University Press 2019. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Tobacco and alcohol are well-established risk factors for numerous cancers, yet their relationship to biliary tract cancers remains unclear., Methods: We pooled data from 26 prospective studies to evaluate associations of cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption with biliary tract cancer risk. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with smoking and alcohol consumption were calculated. Random-effects meta-analysis produced summary estimates. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: Over a period of 38 369 156 person-years of follow-up, 1391 gallbladder, 758 intrahepatic bile duct, 1208 extrahepatic bile duct, and 623 ampulla of Vater cancer cases were identified. Ever, former, and current smoking were associated with increased extrahepatic bile duct and ampulla of Vater cancers risk (eg, current vs never smokers HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.34 to 2.13 and 2.22, 95% CI = 1.69 to 2.92, respectively), with dose-response effects for smoking pack-years, duration, and intensity (all Ptrend < .01). Current smoking and smoking intensity were also associated with intrahepatic bile duct cancer (eg, >40 cigarettes per day vs never smokers HR = 2.15, 95 % CI = 1.15 to 4.00; Ptrend = .001). No convincing association was observed between smoking and gallbladder cancer. Alcohol consumption was only associated with intrahepatic bile duct cancer, with increased risk for individuals consuming five or more vs zero drinks per day (HR = 2.35, 95%CI = 1.46 to 3.78; Ptrend = .04). There was evidence of statistical heterogeneity among several cancer sites, particularly between gallbladder cancer and the other biliary tract cancers., Conclusions: Smoking appears to increase the risk of developing all biliary tract cancers except gallbladder cancer. Alcohol may increase the risk of intrahepatic bile duct cancer. Findings highlight etiologic heterogeneity across the biliary tract., (Published by Oxford University Press 2019. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.)

Background: A growing proportion of tobacco users in the United States use non-cigarette products including cigars, pipes, and smokeless tobacco. Studies examining the disease and mortality risks of these products are urgently needed., Methods: We harmonized tobacco use data from 165 335 adults in the 1991, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2005, and 2010 National Health Interview Surveys. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall and cause-specific mortality occurring through December 31, 2015, were estimated by exclusive use of cigarettes, cigars, pipes, or smokeless tobacco using Cox proportional hazards regression with age as the underlying time metric and never tobacco users as the referent group., Results: Current use of cigarettes (HR = 2.23, 95% CI = 2.13 to 2.33) and smokeless tobacco (HR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.59) were each associated with overall mortality. Relative to never tobacco users, higher risks were observed both in daily (HR = 2.34, 95% CI = 2.24 to 2.44) and nondaily (HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.54 to 1.86) cigarette smokers, with associations also observed across major smoking-related causes of death. Daily use of smokeless tobacco was also associated with overall mortality (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.20 to 1.66) as was daily use of cigars (HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.12 to 2.08). Current smokeless tobacco use was associated with a higher risk of mortality from heart disease and smoking-related cancer, with strong associations observed for cancers of the oral cavity and bladder., Conclusions: Exclusive daily use of cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco was associated with higher mortality risk. Tobacco control efforts should include cigars and smokeless tobacco.

Disparities in cancer mortality by county-level income have increased. It is unclear whether these widening disparities have affected older and younger adults equally. National death certificate data were utilized to ascertain cancer deaths during 1999-2015. Average annual percent changes in mortality rates and mortality rate ratios (RRs) were estimated by county-level income quintile and age (25-64 vs ≥65 years). Among 25- to 64-year-olds, cancer mortality rates were 30% higher (RR = 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29 to 1.31) in the lowest-vs the highest-income counties in 1999-2001 and 56% higher (RR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.55 to 1.57) in 2013-2015; the disparities among those 65 years and older were smaller but also widened over time (RR1999-2001 = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.05; RR2013-2015 = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.14). Widening disparities occurred across cancer sites. If all counties had the mortality rates of the highest-income counties, 21.5% of cancer deaths among 25- to 64-year-olds and 7.3% of cancer deaths in those 65 years and older would have been avoided in 2015. These results highlight an ongoing need for equity-focused interventions, particularly among younger adults., (Published by Oxford University Press 2019.)

Background: Available evidence on diet and glioma risk comes mainly from studies with retrospective collection of dietary data. To minimize possible differential dietary recall between those with and without glioma, we present findings from 3 large prospective studies., Methods: Participants included 692 176 from the UK Million Women Study, 470 780 from the US National Institutes of Health-AARP study, and 99 148 from the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Cox regression yielded study-specific adjusted relative risks for glioma in relation to 15 food groups, 14 nutrients, and 3 dietary patterns, which were combined, weighted by inverse variances of the relative risks. Separate analyses by <5 and ≥5 years follow-up assessed potential biases related to changes of diet before glioma diagnosis., Results: The 1 262 104 participants (mean age, 60.6 y [SD 5.5] at baseline) were followed for 15.4 million person-years (mean 12.2 y/participant), during which 2313 incident gliomas occurred, at mean age 68.2 (SD 6.4). Overall, there was weak evidence for increased glioma risks associated with increasing intakes of total fruit, citrus fruit, and fiber and healthy dietary patterns, but these associations were generally null after excluding the first 5 years of follow-up. There was little evidence for heterogeneity of results by study or by sex., Conclusions: The largest prospective evidence to date suggests little, if any, association between major food groups, nutrients, or common healthy dietary patterns and glioma incidence. With the statistical power of this study and the comprehensive nature of the investigation here, it seems unlikely we have overlooked major effects of diet on risk of glioma that would be of public health concern., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Neuro-Oncology.)

Background: Previously we showed that adulthood body mass index (BMI) trajectories that result in obesity were associated with elevated risks of fatal prostate cancer (PCA). To further explore this relationship, we conducted a study within the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study., Methods: Among 153 730 eligible men enrolled in the NIH-AARP cohort from 1995 to 1996 (median follow-up = 15.1 years), we identified 630 fatal PCA cases and 16 896 incident cases. BMI was assessed for ages 18, 35 and 50 and at study entry, enabling examination of latent class-identified BMI trajectories. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression., Results: BMI at study entry (mean age = 63, HR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.01, 1.24, per 5-unit increase) and maximum BMI during adulthood (HR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.02, 1.24, per 5-unit increase) shared modest associations with increased risk of fatal PCA. Smoking status likely modified the relationship between BMI trajectories and fatal PCA (Pinteraction = 0.035 via change-in-estimate variable section, P = 0.065 via full a priori model). Among never-smokers, BMI trajectory of normal weight to obesity was associated with increased risk of fatal disease (HR = 2.37; 95% CI = 1.38, 4.09), compared with the maintained normal weight trajectory, whereas there was no association among former or current-smokers. Total and non-aggressive PCA exhibited modest inverse associations with BMI at all ages, whereas no association was observed for aggressive PCA., Conclusions: Increased BMI was positively associated with fatal PCA, especially among never-smokers. Future studies that examine PCA survival will provide additional insight as to whether these associations are the result of biology or confounding., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2018. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Many smokers do not quit but instead reduce the number of cigarettes they smoke per day (CPD) over their lifetime. Yet the associations of such changes in CPD with health risks are unclear. We examined the association of changes in CPD with subsequent death in the period 2004-2011 among 253,947 participants of the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. Using a questionnaire assessing responders' history of smoking cigarettes, we identified cigarette smokers who quit, decreased, maintained, or increased their CPD between ages 25-29 and 50-59 years. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were obtained from multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. Relative to never smokers, smokers who maintained a consistent CPD had 2.93 times (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.82, 3.05) higher all-cause mortality risk, and participants who increased their CPD had still higher risk (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.37, 95% CI: 3.23, 3.52). Death risk was lower among participants who decreased their CPD (HR = 2.38, 95% CI: 2.25, 2.52) or quit smoking (for quitting between ages 30 and 39 years, HR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.39). Similar patterns were observed for smoking-related causes of death, with particularly strong associations for lung cancer and respiratory disease. Reductions in CPD over the lifetime meaningfully decreased death risk; however, cessation provided a larger benefit than even large declines in CPD.

Background: Experimental and epidemiological studies suggest a protective role for vitamin D in colorectal carcinogenesis, but evidence is inconclusive. Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations that minimize risk are unknown. Current Institute of Medicine (IOM) vitamin D guidance is based solely on bone health., Methods: We pooled participant-level data from 17 cohorts, comprising 5706 colorectal cancer case participants and 7107 control participants with a wide range of circulating 25(OH)D concentrations. For 30.1% of participants, 25(OH)D was newly measured. Previously measured 25(OH)D was calibrated to the same assay to permit estimating risk by absolute concentrations. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) for prediagnostic season-standardized 25(OH)D concentrations were calculated using conditional logistic regression and pooled using random effects models., Results: Compared with the lower range of sufficiency for bone health (50-<62.5 nmol/L), deficient 25(OH)D (<30 nmol/L) was associated with 31% higher colorectal cancer risk (RR = 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 1.62); 25(OH)D above sufficiency (75-<87.5 and 87.5-<100 nmol/L) was associated with 19% (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.99) and 27% (RR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.91) lower risk, respectively. At 25(OH)D of 100 nmol/L or greater, risk did not continue to decline and was not statistically significantly reduced (RR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.67 to 1.24, 3.5% of control participants). Associations were minimally affected when adjusting for body mass index, physical activity, or other risk factors. For each 25 nmol/L increment in circulating 25(OH)D, colorectal cancer risk was 19% lower in women (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.87) and 7% lower in men (RR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.86 to 1.00) (two-sided Pheterogeneity by sex = .008). Associations were inverse in all subgroups, including colorectal subsite, geographic region, and season of blood collection., Conclusions: Higher circulating 25(OH)D was related to a statistically significant, substantially lower colorectal cancer risk in women and non-statistically significant lower risk in men. Optimal 25(OH)D concentrations for colorectal cancer risk reduction, 75-100 nmol/L, appear higher than current IOM recommendations., (Published by Oxford University Press 2018.)

Background: Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) are characterized by a strong male predominance. Concentrations of sex steroid hormones have been hypothesized to explain this sex disparity. However, no prospective population-based study has examined sex steroid hormones in relation to EA/GCA risk. Thus, we investigated whether prediagnostic circulating sex steroid hormone concentrations were associated with EA/GCA in a nested case-control study drawn from participants in three prospective cohort studies., Methods: Using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and electrochemiluminescence immunoassay, we quantitated sex steroid hormones and sex hormone binding globulin, respectively, in serum from 259 EA/GCA male case participants and 259 matched male control participants from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial, Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study, and Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between circulating hormones and EA/GCA risk. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: Higher concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) were associated with a 38% decreased risk of EA/GCA (OR per unit increase in log2 DHEA = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.47 to 0.82, Ptrend = .001). Higher estradiol concentrations were associated with a 34% reduced risk of EA/GCA (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.98, Ptrend = .05), and the association with free estradiol was similar. No other associations between baseline hormone concentrations and future EA/GCA risk were observed., Conclusions: This study provides the first evidence that higher concentrations of circulating DHEA, estradiol, and free estradiol may be associated with lower risks of EA/GCA in men.

Background: Self-reported smoking is the principal measure used to assess lung cancer risk in epidemiological studies. We evaluated if circulating cotinine-a nicotine metabolite and biomarker of recent tobacco exposure-provides additional information on lung cancer risk., Methods: The study was conducted in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3) involving 20 prospective cohort studies. Pre-diagnostic serum cotinine concentrations were measured in one laboratory on 5364 lung cancer cases and 5364 individually matched controls. We used conditional logistic regression to evaluate the association between circulating cotinine and lung cancer, and assessed if cotinine provided additional risk-discriminative information compared with self-reported smoking (smoking status, smoking intensity, smoking duration), using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis., Results: We observed a strong positive association between cotinine and lung cancer risk for current smokers [odds ratio (OR ) per 500 nmol/L increase in cotinine (OR500): 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32-1.47]. Cotinine concentrations consistent with active smoking (≥115 nmol/L) were common in former smokers (cases: 14.6%; controls: 9.2%) and rare in never smokers (cases: 2.7%; controls: 0.8%). Former and never smokers with cotinine concentrations indicative of active smoking (≥115 nmol/L) also showed increased lung cancer risk. For current smokers, the risk-discriminative performance of cotinine combined with self-reported smoking (AUCintegrated: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.68-0.71) yielded a small improvement over self-reported smoking alone (AUCsmoke: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.64-0.68) (P = 1.5x10-9)., Conclusions: Circulating cotinine concentrations are consistently associated with lung cancer risk for current smokers and provide additional risk-discriminative information compared with self-report smoking alone.

Background: Circulating concentrations of B vitamins and factors related to one-carbon metabolism have been found to be strongly inversely associated with lung cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The extent to which these associations are present in other study populations is unknown., Methods: Within 20 prospective cohorts from the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium, a nested case-control study was designed including 5364 incident lung cancer case patients and 5364 control subjects who were individually matched to case patients by age, sex, cohort, and smoking status. Centralized biochemical analyses were performed to measure circulating concentrations of vitamin B6, folate, and methionine, as well as cotinine as an indicator of recent tobacco exposure. The association between these biomarkers and lung cancer risk was evaluated using conditional logistic regression models., Results: Participants with higher circulating concentrations of vitamin B6 and folate had a modestly decreased risk of lung cancer risk overall, the odds ratios when comparing the top and bottom fourths (OR 4vs1 ) being 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.78 to 1.00) and 0.86 (95% CI = 0.74 to 0.99), respectively. We found stronger associations among men (vitamin B6: OR 4vs1 = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.89; folate: OR 4vs1 = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.61 to 0.93) and ever smokers (vitamin B6: OR 4vs1 = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.91; folate: OR 4vs1 = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.73 to 1.03). We further noted that the association of folate was restricted to Europe/Australia and Asia, whereas no clear association was observed for the United States. Circulating concentrations of methionine were not associated with lung cancer risk overall or in important subgroups., Conclusions: Although confounding by tobacco exposure or reverse causation cannot be ruled out, these study results are compatible with a small decrease in lung cancer risk in ever smokers who avoid low concentrations of circulating folate and vitamin B6., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Unlike cigarettes, there is little information about the association between other tobacco products and the risk of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma., Methods: We used the baseline data from the Pars Cohort Study conducted in southern Iran. In 2012, 9264 local residents between 40 and 75 years old were enrolled, with detailed information about lifestyle, including duration and frequency of tobacco use. GERD was defined based on questions assessing heartburn and regurgitation in the past 12 months, frequency and severity. Associations were calculated by logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, education, cigarettes and body mass index., Results: In the study, 25.4% of the participants had severe GERD (interfering with participants' routines), 25.1% had frequent GERD (at least once a week) and 11.2% had both severe and frequent GERD, all more common among women (p < 0.001); 45.6% of women and 28.3% of men smoked waterpipes. Among people not using medications against reflux symptoms, there was an association between waterpipe smoking and severe [odds ratio (OR) = 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.04-1.35], frequent (OR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.02-1.32) and severe and frequent reflux (OR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.08-1.56). The associations increased with the duration of use, intensity and cumulative waterpipe-years, reaching an OR of 1.44 (95% CI: 1.12-1.86) for severe and frequent reflux in those who had smoked more than 48 waterpipe-years. There was effect modification by sex, and all the associations were only seen among women., Conclusion: The increasing trend in the association between cumulative waterpipe use and reflux disease among women is particularly important given the growing waterpipe tobacco epidemic in many populations., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.)

Background: In a European cohort, it was previously reported that 35% of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) patients were human papillomavirus type-16 (HPV16) seropositive up to 10 years before diagnosis vs 0.6% of cancer-free controls. Here, we describe the kinetics of HPV16-E6 antibodies prior to OPC diagnosis., Methods: We used annual serial prediagnostic blood samples from the PLCO Cancer Screening Trial. Antibodies to HPV were initially assessed in prediagnostic blood drawn at study enrollment from 198 incident head and neck cancer patients (median years to cancer diagnosis = 6.6) and 924 matched control subjects using multiplex serology, and subsequently in serial samples (median = 5/individual). Available tumor samples were identified and tested for HPV16 RNA to define HPV-driven OPC., Results: HPV16-E6 antibodies were present at baseline in 42.3% of 52 OPC patients and 0.5% of 924 control subjects. HPV16-E6 antibody levels were highly elevated and stable across serial blood samples for 21 OPC patients who were seropositive at baseline, as well as for one OPC patient who seroconverted closer to diagnosis. All five subjects with HPV16-driven OPC tumors were HPV16-E6-seropositive, and the four subjects with HPV16-negative OPC tumors were seronegative. The estimated 10-year cumulative risk of OPC was 6.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8% to 21.5%) for HPV16-E6-seropositive men, 1.3% (95% CI = 0.1% to 15.3%) for HPV16-E6-seropositive women, and 0.04% (95% CI = 0.03% to 0.06%) among HPV16-E6-seronegative individuals., Conclusions: Forty-two percent of subjects diagnosed with OPC between 1994 and 2009 in a US cohort were HPV16-E6 seropositive, with stable antibody levels during annual follow-up for up to 13 years prior to diagnosis. Tumor analysis indicated that the sensitivity and specificity of HPV16-E6 antibodies were exceptionally high in predicting HPV-driven OPC., (Published by Oxford University Press 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Gastrin, which induces gastric acid secretion, and a structurally similar hormone, cholecystokinin (CCK)-a potent acid inhibitor, may each play a role in gastric cancer. However, few studies have investigated this hypothesis in humans. We therefore investigated whether serum gastrin or CCK concentrations at baseline were associated with the incidence of gastric non-cardia adenocarcinomas (GNCA), oesophagogastric junctional adenocarcinomas (EGJA) or gastric carcinoid tumours over 24 years of follow-up in a study nested within the all-male Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study of Finnish smokers., Methods: Totals of 283 incident GNCA, 96 EGJA and 10 gastric carcinoid cases, and 778 matched controls, were included in our analysis. Gastrin and CCK were measured using specific radioimmunoassays. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated by multivariable logistic regression with adjustment for all known or suspected confounding factors, including Helicobacter pylori seropositivity., Results: Those with high gastrin (Q4 vs Q1), had an increased risk of GNCA (fully adjusted OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.21, 3.05) and gastric carcinoids, though the small number of carcinoid cases meant the fully adjusted model was unstable (age-adjusted continuous model OR: 4.67; 95% CI: 2.67, 8.15). CCK was associated with risk of GNCA only for those in Q3 relative to Q1 (OR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.33, 0.96), and no significant trend was observed., Conclusions: Our data suggest that high serum concentrations of gastrin may be associated independently with an increased risk of gastric cancer; the role of CCK in cancer risk is less clear., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.)

Background: A number of prospective studies have observed inverse associations between nut consumption and chronic diseases. However, these studies have predominantly been conducted in Western countries, where nut consumption tends to be more common among individuals with healthier lifestyles. It is important to examine the association in other parts of the world, and particularly among populations with different patterns of disease, socioeconomic status, lifestyles and disease risk factors. Our objective was to examine the association between nut consumption and mortality in a population whose nut consumption does not track with a healthy lifestyle., Methods: We examined the association between nut consumption and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the 50 045 participants of the Golestan Cohort Study. Participants were aged 40 and older at baseline in 2004, and have been actively followed since that time. Dietary data were collected using a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire that was administered at baseline., Results: During 349 677 person-years of follow-up, 3981 cohort participants died, including 1732 women and 2249 men. Nut consumption was associated inversely with all-cause mortality. The pooled multivariate adjusted hazard ratios for death among participants who ate nuts, as compared with those who did not, were 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.82-0.95] for the consumption of less than one serving of nuts per week, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.67-0.85) for one to less than three servings per week and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.58-0.86) for three or more servings per week ( P < 0.001 for trend). Among specific causes, significant inverse associations were observed between nut consumption and deaths due to cardiovascular disease, all cancers and gastrointestinal cancers., Conclusions: This study provides evidence for an inverse association between nut consumption and mortality in a developing country, where nut consumption does not track with a healthy lifestyle. Further work is needed to establish the underlying mechanisms responsible for this association., (© The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association)

In this issue of the Journal, Wyss et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2016;184(10):703-716) describe the association between use of smokeless tobacco and head and neck cancer in 11 US case-control studies. Despite use by an estimated 300 million people worldwide and prior evidence for a causal association with cancer, these products remain understudied. Data are particularly needed for persons who do not use cigarettes or other smoking tobacco products. With 6,772 cancer cases and 8,375 controls, the current study is larger than previous efforts, allowing evaluation of associations among never cigarette smokers. Importantly, snuff use was positively associated with head and neck cancer, particularly for cancers of the oral cavity, whereas associations were weaker for chewing tobacco. Associations were observed among never cigarette smokers but not among ever cigarette smokers. Yet, despite the large sample size, only 44 cases and 62 controls had used snuff and only 61 cases and 96 controls had used chewing tobacco in the absence of cigarettes, precluding detailed examinations of dose response and cessation. Future studies set in high-prevalence populations with detailed assessment of lifetime use are needed to better understand the cancer risks of exclusive smokeless tobacco use and dual use of smokeless tobacco with other tobacco products, including cigarettes.

Background: Identifying circulating metabolites related to cigarette smoking may provide insight into the biological mechanisms of smoking-related diseases and the nature of addiction. However, previous studies are limited, generally small, and have largely targeted a priori metabolites., Methods: We examined associations between cigarette smoking and metabolites using an untargeted metabolomics approach in 892 men and women from four studies including participants from Italy, USA, China and Finland. We examined associations between individual log-transformed metabolites and two key smoking phenotypes (current smoking status and cigarettes per day [cig/day]) using linear regression. Fixed-effect meta-analysis was used to combine results across studies. Strict Bonferroni thresholds were used as our significance criteria. We further examined associated metabolites with other metrics of smoking behaviuor (current versus former, former versus never, smoking duration and years since quitting) in the US study., Results: We identified a total of 25 metabolites associated with smoking behaviours; 24 were associated with current smoking status and eight with cig/day. In addition to three well-established nicotine metabolites (cotinine, hydroxycotinine, cotinine N-oxide), we found an additional 12 xenobiotic metabolites involved in benzoatic (e.g. 3-ethylphenylsulphate) or xanthine metabolism (e.g. 1-methylurate), three amino acids (o-cresol sulphate, serotonin, indolepropionate), two lipids (scyllo-inositol, pregnenolone sulphate), four vitamins or cofactors [e.g. bilirubin (Z,Z)], and one carbohydrate (oxalate)., Conclusions: We identified associations between cigarette smoking and a diverse range of metabolites. Our findings, with further validation in future studies, have implications regarding aetiology and study design of smoking-related diseases., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2015. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.)

Background: Historically, US women started smoking at a later age than men and had lower relative risks for smoking-related cancers. However, more recent birth cohorts of women and men have similar smoking histories and have now reached the high-risk age for cancer. The impact of these changes on cancer incidence has not been systematically examined., Methods: Relative risks (RR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and attributable fractions were calculated for cigarette smoking and incidence of 20 smoking-related cancers in 186 057 women and 266 074 men of the National Institutes of Health-AARP cohort, aged 50 to 71 years in 1995 and followed for 11 years., Results: In the cohort, which included participants born between 1924 and 1945, most women and men started smoking as teenagers. RRs for current vs never smoking were similar in women and men for the following cancers: lung squamous-cell (RR women: 121.4, 95% CI: 57.3-257.4; RR men:114.6, 95% CI: 61.2-214.4), lung adenocarcinoma (RR women: 11.7, 95% CI: 9.8-14.0; RR men: 15.6, 95% CI: 12.5-19.6), laryngeal (RR women: 37.0, 95% CI: 14.9-92.3; RR men: 13.8, 95% CI: 9.3-20.2), oral cavity-pharyngeal (RR women:4.4, 95% CI: 3.3-6.0; RR men: 3.8, 95% CI: 3.0-4.7), oesophageal squamous cell (RR women: 7.3, 95% CI: 3.5-15.5; RR men: 6.2, 95% CI: 2.8-13.7), bladder (RR women: 4.7, 95% CI: 3.7-5.8; RR men: 4.0, 95% CI: 3.5-4.5), colon (RR women: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.2-1.5; RR men: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1-1.4), and at other sites, with similar attributable fractions., Conclusions: RRs for current smoking and incidence of many smoking-related cancers are now similar in US women and men, likely reflecting converging smoking patterns., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2015. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Coffee drinkers had a higher risk of lung cancer in some previous studies, but as heavy coffee drinkers tend to also be cigarette smokers, such findings could be confounded. Therefore, we examined this association in the nearly half a million participants of the US NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study., Methods: Typical coffee intake and smoking history were queried at baseline. During 4 155 256 person-years of follow-up, more than 9000 incident lung cancer cases occurred. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs)and 95% confidence intervals for coffee intake and subsequent incidence of lung cancer. We also comprehensively adjusted for tobacco smoking and examined associations by detailed strata of tobacco use., Results: Coffee drinkers were far more likely to smoke than non-drinkers. Although coffee drinking was associated with lung cancer in age- and sex- adjusted models (HR for ≥ 6 cups/day compared with none: 4.56, 4.08-5.10), this association was substantially attenuated after adjusting for smoking (HR: 1.27, 1.14-1.42). Similar findings were observed for each different histological type of lung cancer, and for participants drinking predominantly caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee. Little evidence for an association was observed in our stratified analyses, either within never smokers or in most categories of tobacco use., Conclusions: Coffee drinking was positively associated with lung cancer in our study, although the association was substantially attenuated after adjustment for tobacco smoking. As our adjustment for lifetime tobacco use was imperfect, it is likely that the remaining association is due to residual confounding by smoking, although other explanations are possible., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2015. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Several studies suggest that cancer is reduced before and after a Parkinson's disease (PD) diagnosis. However, determining relationships among diseases of ageing is challenging due to possible biases in ascertaining disease. This study evaluates the PD and cancer relationship, addressing potential biases., Methods: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked data (1992-2005) of adults ≥ 65 years, we assessed PD risk after cancer comparing PD in 743 779 cancer patients with PD in a non-cancer group (n = 419 432) in prospective cohort analyses. We also conducted a case-control study of 836 947 cancer cases and 142 869 controls to assess cancer following PD. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazards ratios (HRs) for PD after cancer and unconditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for PD preceding cancer, controlling for physician visits and other factors. To explore biases in ascertaining cancer, we examined relationships between cancer and automobile accident injuries, which we expected to be null., Results: No association was observed between cancer and subsequent PD [HR = 0.97; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.92-1.01] nor between cancer and subsequent automobile injuries (HR = 1.03; 95% CI = 0.98-1.07). One site, lung cancer, was associated with subsequent reduced PD, which may reflect confounding by smoking. In the case-control analysis, PD was associated with reduced subsequent cancer, overall (OR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.71-0.82) and for several cancer sites. However, the automobile injury/ subsequent cancer association was similar (OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.78-0.88), suggesting a cancer detection bias after serious health outcomes., Conclusions: In totality, our data do not support a biological relationship between PD and cancer., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.)