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Longer periods are needed to examine how biomarker changes occur relative to incident sporadic cognitive impairment. We evaluated molecular (CSF and imaging), structural, and cognitive biomarkers to predict incident cognitive impairment and examined longitudinal biomarker changes before and after symptomatic onset. Data from participants who were cognitively normal, underwent amyloid imaging using Pittsburgh compound B and/or CSF studies, and at least two clinical assessments were used. Stepwise Cox proportional hazards models tested associations of molecular (Pittsburgh compound B; CSF amyloid-β42, tau, ptau181, tau/amyloid-β42, ptau181/amyloid-β42), structural (normalized hippocampal volume, normalized whole brain volume), and cognitive (Animal Naming, Trail Making A, Trail Making B, Selective Reminding Test - Free Recall) biomarkers with time to Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) > 0. Cognitively normal participants (n = 664), aged 42 to 90 years (mean ± standard deviation = 71.4 ± 9.2) were followed for up to 16.9 years (mean ± standard deviation = 6.2 ± 3.5 years). Of these, 145 (21.8%) participants developed a CDR > 0. At time of incident cognitive impairment, molecular, structural, and cognitive markers were abnormal for CDR > 0 compared to CDR = 0. Linear mixed models indicated rates of change in molecular biomarkers were similar for CDR = 0 and CDR > 0, suggesting that the separation in values between CDR = 0 and CDR > 0 must have occurred prior to the observation period. Rate of decline for structural and cognitive biomarkers was faster for CDR > 0 compared to CDR = 0 (P < 0.0001). Structural and cognitive biomarkers for CDR > 0 diverged from CDR 0 at 9 and 12 years before incident cognitive impairment, respectively. Within those who developed CDR > 0, a natural separation occurred for Pittsburgh compound B values. In particular, CDR > 0 who had at least one APOE ɛ4 allele had higher, and more rapid increase in Pittsburgh compound B, while APOE ɛ2 was observed to have slower increases in Pittsburgh compound B. Of molecular biomarker-positive participants followed for at least 10 years (n = 16-23), ∼70% remained CDR = 0 over the follow-up period. In conclusion, conversion from cognitively normal to CDR > 0 is characterized by not only the magnitude of molecular biomarkers but also rate of change in cognitive and structural biomarkers. Findings support theoretical models of biomarker changes seen during transition to cognitive impairment using longitudinal data and provide a potential time for changes seen during this transition. These findings support the use of molecular biomarkers for trial inclusion and cognitive/structural biomarkers for evaluating trial outcomes. Finally, results support a potential role for APOE ɛ in modulating amyloid accumulation in CDR > 0 with APOE ɛ4 being deleterious and APOE ɛ2 protective.

Universally accepted neuropathologic criteria for differentiating Alzheimer disease (AD) from healthy brain aging do not exist. We tested the hypothesis that Bielschowsky silver stained total, cored, and neuritic senile plaques (TSPs, CSPs, and NSPs, respectively), rather than neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs), best discriminate between the 2 conditions using rigorously defined nondemented (n = 7) and AD (n = 35) subjects with no known co-morbidities. We compared lesions in 3 neocortical regions, in hippocampal CA1, and in entorhinal cortex in 19 men and 13 women between 74 and 86 years at death. The Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) was used to assess degree of cognitive impairment within a year of demise. Neocortical TSP measures provided the highest correlation with expiration CDR: area under the curve (AUC) = 0.986 with 97.8% sensitivity at 90% specificity with an estimated cut-point of 6.0 TSP/ mm2. All SP measures yielded higher estimated AUC and sensitivity for 90% specificity compared to NFTs. Derived TSP cut-points applied to 149 persons with clinical AD regardless of their neuropathologic diagnosis yielded a sensitivity of 97% and specificity of 84% for TSPs in the 3 neocortical areas. Thus cut-points based on both diffuse and neuritic SP in neocortical regions distinguished nondemented and AD subjects with high sensitivity and specificity.