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In the North-Central United States, lowland ecotype switchgrass can increase yield by up to 50% compared with locally adapted but early flowering cultivars. However, lowland ecotypes are not winter tolerant. The mechanism for winter damage is unknown but previously has been associated with late flowering time. This study investigated heading date (measured for two years) and winter survivorship (measured for three years) in a multi-generation population generated from two winter-hardy lowland individuals and diverse southern lowland populations. Sequencing data (311,776 markers) from 1,306 individuals were used to evaluate genome-wide trait prediction through cross-validation and progeny prediction (n = 52). Genetic variance for heading date and winter survivorship was additive with high narrow-sense heritability (0.64 and 0.71, respectively) and reliability (0.68 and 0.76, respectively). The initial negative correlation between winter survivorship and heading date degraded across generations (F1r = -0.43, pseudo-F2r = -0.28, pseudo-F2 progeny r = -0.15). Within-family predictive ability was moderately high for heading date and winter survivorship (0.53 and 0.52, respectively). A multi-trait model did not improve predictive ability for either trait. Progeny predictive ability was 0.71 for winter survivorship and 0.53 for heading date. These results suggest that lowland ecotype populations can obtain sufficient survival rates in the northern United States with two or three cycles of effective selection. Despite accurate genomic prediction, naturally occurring winter mortality successfully isolated winter tolerant genotypes and appears to be an efficient method to develop high-yielding, cold-tolerant switchgrass cultivars., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest None declared., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Genetics Society of America.)

The lowland ecotype of switchgrass has generated considerable interest because of its higher biomass yield and late flowering characteristics compared to the upland ecotype. However, lowland ecotypes planted in northern latitudes exhibit very low winter survival. Implementation of genomic selection could potentially enhance switchgrass breeding for winter survival by reducing generation time while eliminating the dependence on weather. The objectives of this study were to assess the potential of genomic selection for winter survival in lowland switchgrass by combining multiple populations in the training set and applying the selected model in two independent testing datasets for validation. Marker data were generated using exome capture sequencing. Validation was conducted using (1) indirect indicators of winter adaptation based on geographic and climatic variables of accessions from different source locations and (2) winter survival estimates of the phenotype. The prediction accuracies were significantly higher when the training dataset comprising all populations was used in fivefold cross validation but its application was not useful in the independent validation dataset. Nevertheless, modeling for population heterogeneity improved the prediction accuracy to some extent but the genetic relationship between the training and validation populations was found to be more influential. The predicted winter survival of lowland switchgrass indicated latitudinal and longitudinal variability, with the northeast USA the region for most cold tolerant lowland populations. Our results suggested that GS could provide valuable opportunities for improving winter survival and accelerate the lowland switchgrass breeding programs toward the development of cold tolerant cultivars suitable for northern latitudes., (Copyright © 2019 Poudel et al.)