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Introduction: The nicotine metabolite ratio and nicotine equivalents are measures of metabolism rate and intake. Genome-wide prediction of these nicotine biomarkers in multiethnic samples will enable tobacco-related biomarker, behavioral, and exposure research in studies without measured biomarkers., Aims and Methods: We screened genetic variants genome-wide using marginal scans and applied statistical learning algorithms on top-ranked genetic variants, age, ethnicity and sex, and, in additional modeling, cigarettes per day (CPD), (in additional modeling) to build prediction models for the urinary nicotine metabolite ratio (uNMR) and creatinine-standardized total nicotine equivalents (TNE) in 2239 current cigarette smokers in five ethnic groups. We predicted these nicotine biomarkers using model ensembles and evaluated external validity using dependence measures in 1864 treatment-seeking smokers in two ethnic groups., Results: The genomic regions with the most selected and included variants for measured biomarkers were chr19q13.2 (uNMR, without and with CPD) and chr15q25.1 and chr10q25.3 (TNE, without and with CPD). We observed ensemble correlations between measured and predicted biomarker values for the uNMR and TNE without (with CPD) of 0.67 (0.68) and 0.65 (0.72) in the training sample. We observed inconsistency in penalized regression models of TNE (with CPD) with fewer variants at chr15q25.1 selected and included. In treatment-seeking smokers, predicted uNMR (without CPD) was significantly associated with CPD and predicted TNE (without CPD) with CPD, time-to-first-cigarette, and Fagerström total score., Conclusions: Nicotine metabolites, genome-wide data, and statistical learning approaches developed novel robust predictive models for urinary nicotine biomarkers in multiple ethnic groups. Predicted biomarker associations helped define genetically influenced components of nicotine dependence., Implications: We demonstrate development of robust models and multiethnic prediction of the uNMR and TNE using statistical and machine learning approaches. Variants included in trained models for nicotine biomarkers include top-ranked variants in multiethnic genome-wide studies of smoking behavior, nicotine metabolites, and related disease. Association of the two predicted nicotine biomarkers with Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence items supports models of nicotine biomarkers as predictors of physical dependence and nicotine exposure. Predicted nicotine biomarkers may facilitate tobacco-related disease and treatment research in samples with genomic data and limited nicotine metabolite or tobacco exposure data., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.)

Whether radiation therapy (RT) affects contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk in women with pathogenic germline variants in moderate- to high-penetrance breast cancer-associated genes is unknown. In a population-based case-control study, we examined the association between RT; variants in ATM, BRCA1/2, or CHEK2*1100delC; and CBC risk. We analyzed 708 cases of women with CBC and 1399 controls with unilateral breast cancer, all diagnosed with first invasive breast cancer between 1985 and 2000 and aged younger than 55 years at diagnosis and screened for variants in breast cancer-associated genes. Rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable conditional logistic regression. RT did not modify the association between known pathogenic variants and CBC risk (eg, BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers without RT: RR = 3.52, 95% CI = 1.76 to 7.01; BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers with RT: RR = 4.46, 95% CI = 2.96 to 6.71), suggesting that modifying RT plans for young women with breast cancer is unwarranted. Rare ATM missense variants, not currently identified as pathogenic, were associated with increased risk of RT-associated CBC (carriers of ATM rare missense variants of uncertain significance without RT: RR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.09 to 1.55; carriers of ATM rare missense variants of uncertain significance with RT: RR = 2.98, 95% CI = 1.31 to 6.80). Further mechanistic studies will aid clinical decision-making related to RT., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

This article addresses issues relevant to interpreting findings from 26 epidemiologic studies of persons exposed to low-dose radiation. We review the extensive data from both epidemiologic studies of persons exposed at moderate or high doses and from radiobiology that together have firmly established radiation as carcinogenic. We then discuss the use of the linear relative risk model that has been used to describe data from both low- and moderate- or high-dose studies. We consider the effects of dose measurement errors; these can reduce statistical power and lead to underestimation of risks but are very unlikely to bring about a spurious dose response. We estimate statistical power for the low-dose studies under the assumption that true risks of radiation-related cancers are those expected from studies of Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Finally, we discuss the interpretation of confidence intervals and statistical tests and the applicability of the Bradford Hill principles for a causal relationship., (Published by Oxford University Press 2020. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Ionizing radiation is an established carcinogen, but risks from low-dose exposures are controversial. Since the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII review of the epidemiological data in 2006, many subsequent publications have reported excess cancer risks from low-dose exposures. Our aim was to systematically review these studies to assess the magnitude of the risk and whether the positive findings could be explained by biases., Methods: Eligible studies had mean cumulative doses of less than 100 mGy, individualized dose estimates, risk estimates, and confidence intervals (CI) for the dose-response and were published in 2006-2017. We summarized the evidence for bias (dose error, confounding, outcome ascertainment) and its likely direction for each study. We tested whether the median excess relative risk (ERR) per unit dose equals zero and assessed the impact of excluding positive studies with potential bias away from the null. We performed a meta-analysis to quantify the ERR and assess consistency across studies for all solid cancers and leukemia., Results: Of the 26 eligible studies, 8 concerned environmental, 4 medical, and 14 occupational exposure. For solid cancers, 16 of 22 studies reported positive ERRs per unit dose, and we rejected the hypothesis that the median ERR equals zero (P = .03). After exclusion of 4 positive studies with potential positive bias, 12 of 18 studies reported positive ERRs per unit dose (P  = .12). For leukemia, 17 of 20 studies were positive, and we rejected the hypothesis that the median ERR per unit dose equals zero (P  = .001), also after exclusion of 5 positive studies with potential positive bias (P  = .02). For adulthood exposure, the meta-ERR at 100 mGy was 0.029 (95% CI = 0.011 to 0.047) for solid cancers and 0.16 (95% CI = 0.07 to 0.25) for leukemia. For childhood exposure, the meta-ERR at 100 mGy for leukemia was 2.84 (95% CI = 0.37 to 5.32); there were only two eligible studies of all solid cancers., Conclusions: Our systematic assessments in this monograph showed that these new epidemiological studies are characterized by several limitations, but only a few positive studies were potentially biased away from the null. After exclusion of these studies, the majority of studies still reported positive risk estimates. We therefore conclude that these new epidemiological studies directly support excess cancer risks from low-dose ionizing radiation. Furthermore, the magnitude of the cancer risks from these low-dose radiation exposures was statistically compatible with the radiation dose-related cancer risks of the atomic bomb survivors., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

1,3-Butadiene (BD) is a known human carcinogen found in cigarette smoke, automobile exhaust, and urban air. Workers occupationally exposed to BD in the workplace have an increased incidence of leukemia and lymphoma. BD undergoes cytochrome P450-mediated metabolic activation to 3,4-epoxy-1-butene (EB), 1,2,3,4-diepoxybutane (DEB) and 1,2-dihydroxy-3,4-epoxybutane (EBD), which form covalent adducts with DNA. We have previously reported a quantitative nanoLC/ESI+-HRMS3 method for urinary N7-(1-hydroxy-3-buten-2-yl) guanine (EB-GII) adducts as a mechanism-based biomarker of BD exposure. In the present study, the method was updated to include high throughput 96-well solid phase extraction (SPE) and employed to establish urinary EB-GII biomarker stability and association with smoking. Urinary EB-GII levels were measured bimonthly for 1 year in 19 smokers to determine whether single adduct measurement provides reliable levels of EB-GII in an individual smoker. In addition, association of EB-GII with smoking was studied in 17 individuals participating in a smoking cessation program. EB-GII levels decreased 34% upon smoking cessation, indicating that it is associated with smoking status, but may also originate from sources other than exposure to cigarette smoke., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the UK Environmental Mutagen Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: There are increasing concerns about the potential impact of air pollution on chronic brain inflammation and microglia cell activation, but evidence of its carcinogenic effects is limited., Methods: We used kriging interpolation and land use regression models to estimate long-term air pollutant exposures of oxides of nitrogen (NO x , NO 2 ), kriging interpolation for ozone (O 3 ), carbon monoxide, and particulate matter (PM 2.5 , PM 10 ), and nearest monitoring station measurements for benzene for 103 308 men and women from the Multiethnic Cohort, residing largely in Los Angeles County from recruitment (1993-1996) through 2013. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the associations between time-varying pollutants and risk of malignant brain cancer (94 men, 116 women) and meningioma (130 men, 425 women) with adjustment for sex, race and ethnicity, neighborhood socioeconomic status, smoking, occupation, and other covariates. Stratified analyses were conducted by sex and race and ethnicity., Results: Brain cancer risk in men increased in association with exposure to benzene (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.55 to 7.55) and PM 10 (HR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.00 to 3.23). Stronger associations with PM 10 (HR = 3.02, 95% CI = 1.26 to 7.23), O 3 (HR = 2.93, 95% CI = 1.09 to 7.88), and benzene (HR = 4.06, 95% CI = 1.17 to 18.2) were observed among Latino men. Air pollution was unrelated to risk of meningioma except that O 3 exposure was associated with risk in men (HR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.02 to 3.06). Brain cancer risk in women was unrelated to air pollution exposures., Conclusions: Confirmation of these sex differences in air pollution-brain cancer associations and the stronger findings in Latino men in additional diverse populations is warranted., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: We previously found that African Americans and Native Hawaiians were at highest lung cancer risk compared with Japanese Americans and Latinos; whites were midway in risk. These differences were more evident at relatively low levels of smoking intensity, fewer than 20 cigarettes per day (CPD), than at higher intensity., Methods: We apportioned lung cancer risk into three parts: age-specific background risk (among never smokers), an excess relative risk term for cumulative smoking, and modifiers of the smoking effect: race and years-quit smoking. We also explored the effect of replacing self-reports of CPD with a urinary biomarker-total nicotine equivalents-using data from a urinary biomarker substudy., Results: Total lung cancers increased from 1979 to 4993 compared to earlier analysis. Estimated excess relative risks for lung cancer due to smoking for 50 years at 10 CPD (25 pack-years) ranged from 21.9 (95% CI = 18.0 to 25.8) for Native Hawaiians to 8.0 (95% CI = 6.6 to 9.4) for Latinos over the five groups. The risk from smoking was higher for squamous cell carcinomas and small cell cancers than for adenocarcinomas. Racial differences consistent with earlier patterns were seen for overall cancer and for cancer subtypes. Adjusting for predicted total nicotine equivalents, Japanese Americans no longer exhibit a lower risk, and African Americans are no longer at higher risk, compared to whites. Striking risk differences between Native Hawaiians and Latinos persist., Conclusions: Racial differences in lung cancer risk persist in the Multiethnic Cohort study that are not easily explained by variations in self-reported or urinary biomarker-measured smoking intensities., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Diabetes has been proposed to be a risk factor for and a consequence of pancreatic cancer (PC). The relationship between recent-onset diabetes and PC is not well understood, and data in minorities are sparse. We examined the relationships between recent-onset diabetes and PC incidence in African Americans and Latinos in the Multiethnic Cohort., Methods: A total of 48 995 African Americans and Latinos without prior diabetes and cancer at baseline (1993-1996) were included in the study. Questionnaires, Medicare data, and California hospital discharge files were used to identify new diabetes diagnoses. Cox regressions were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cancer associated with diabetes and with diabetes duration., Results: A total of 15 833 (32.3%) participants developed diabetes between baseline and 2013. A total of 408 incident PC cases were identified during follow-up. Diabetes was associated with PC (HRage75 = 2.39, 95% CI = 1.91 to 2.98). Individuals with recent-onset diabetes (within three or fewer years of PC diagnosis) had a greater risk compared with those with long-term diabetes across all ages. The HRage75 for recent-onset diabetes was 4.08 (95% CI = 2.76 to 6.03) in Latinos and 3.38 (95% CI = 2.30 to 4.98) in African Americans., Conclusions: Diabetes was associated with a more than twofold higher risk of PC in African Americans and Latinos, but recent-onset diabetes was associated with a 2.3-fold greater increase in risk of PC than long-standing diabetes. Our findings support the hypothesis that recent-onset diabetes is a manifestation of PC and that long-standing diabetes is a risk factor for this malignancy.

Background: Women with unilateral breast cancer (UBC) are at risk of developing a subsequent contralateral breast cancer (CBC). Common variants are associated with breast cancer risk. Whether these influence CBC risk is unknown., Methods: Participants were breast cancer cases from the population-based Women's Environmental Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology (WECARE) Study. Sixty-seven established breast cancer risk loci were genotyped directly or by imputation in 1459 case subjects with CBC and 2126 UBC control subjects. An unweighted polygenic risk score (PRS) was created by summing the number of risk alleles for each directly genotyped single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), or for imputed loci, the imputed dosage. A weighted PRS was calculated similarly, but where each SNP's contribution was weighted by the published per-allele log odds ratio. Unweighted and weighted polygenic risk scores and CBC risk were modeled using conditional logistic regression. Cumulative CBC risk was estimated and benchmarked using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results population incidence rates., Results: Both unweighted and weighted PRS were statistically significantly associated with CBC risk. The adjusted risk ratio of CBC in women in the upper quartile of unweighted PRS compared with the lowest quartile was 1.63 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.33 to 2.00). The estimated 10-year cumulative risk for women in the upper quartile of the unweighted PRS was 7.4% (95% CI = 6.0% to 9.1%). For women in the upper quartile of the weighted PRS, the risk ratio for CBC was 1.75 (95% CI = 1.41 to 2.18) compared with women in the lowest quartile. There was no statistically significant heterogeneity by age, treatment (radiation therapy dose, tamoxifen, chemotherapy), estrogen receptor status of the first primary, histology of the first primary, length of at-risk period for CBC, or breast cancer family history., Conclusions: Common genomic variants associated with the development of first primary breast cancer are also associated with the development of CBC; the risk is strongest among those who carry more risk alleles., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Prostate cancer incidence is 1.6-fold higher in African Americans than in other populations. The risk factors that drive this disparity are unknown and potentially consist of social, environmental, and genetic influences. To investigate the genetic basis of prostate cancer in men of African ancestry, we performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis using two-sided statistical tests in 10 202 case subjects and 10 810 control subjects. We identified novel signals on chromosomes 13q34 and 22q12, with the risk-associated alleles found only in men of African ancestry (13q34: rs75823044, risk allele frequency = 2.2%, odds ratio [OR] = 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37 to 1.76, P = 6.10 × 10-12; 22q12.1: rs78554043, risk allele frequency = 1.5%, OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.39 to 1.89, P = 7.50 × 10-10). At 13q34, the signal is located 5' of the gene IRS2 and 3' of a long noncoding RNA, while at 22q12 the candidate functional allele is a missense variant in the CHEK2 gene. These findings provide further support for the role of ancestry-specific germline variation in contributing to population differences in prostate cancer risk., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.)

For almost 50 y, the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivor studies has been the primary source of the quantitative estimates of cancer and non-cancer risks that form the basis of international radiation protection standards. However, the long-term follow-up and extensive individual dose reconstruction for the Russian Mayak worker cohort (MWC) and Techa River cohort (TRC) are providing quantitative information about radiation effects on cancer risks that complement the atomic bomb survivor-based risk estimates. The MWC, which includes ~26 000 men and women who began working at Mayak between 1948 and 1982, is the primary source for estimates of the effects of plutonium on cancer risks and also provides information on the effects of low-dose rate external gamma exposures. The TRC consists of ~30 000 men and women of all ages who received low-dose-rate, low-dose exposures as a consequence of Mayak's release of radioactive material into the Techa River. The TRC data are of interest because the exposures are broadly similar to those experienced by populations exposed as a consequence of nuclear accidents such as Chernobyl. In this presentation, it is described the strengths and limitations of these three cohorts, outline and compare recent solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates and discussed why information from the Mayak and Techa River studies might play a role in the development and refinement of the radiation risk estimates that form the basis for radiation protection standards., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

There has been a long process of growth and development of statistical approaches to the analysis of cancer incidence and mortality data obtained from the follow-up of radiation exposed populations. The challenges of radiation risk analysis provided impetus for innovative statistical methods, including, the inception and continued improvement of hazard rate regression methods. Key statistical contributions that improved cancer risk estimation include statistical advances pertaining to the measurement error problem. Current statistical problems involve extensions of the measurement error methods to account for shared non-independent uncertainties in dose estimation, 'transportability' of risk coefficients for radioprotection and risk estimation world-wide, and extrapolation from high dose rate to low-dose rate exposures or from low LET to high LET. Future problems include quantification of individual sensitivity to radiation-related diseases due to individual genetic differences (or other factors), and in understanding the synergy (additive, multiplicative, etc.) between underlying individual risk and radiation exposure., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The 8q24 region harbors multiple risk variants for distinct cancers, including >8 for prostate cancer. In this study, we conducted fine mapping of the 8q24 risk region (127.8-128.8Mb) in search of novel associations with common and rare variation in 4853 prostate cancer case patients and 4678 control subjects of African ancestry. All statistical tests were two-sided. We identified three independent associations at P values of less than 5.00×10(-8), all of which were replicated in studies from Ghana and Uganda (combined sample = 5869 case patients, 5615 control subjects; rs114798100: risk allele frequency [RAF] = 0.04, per-allele odds ratio [OR] = 2.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.04 to 2.61, P = 2.38×10(-40); rs72725879: RAF = 0.33, OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.30 to 1.45, P = 3.04×10(-27); and rs111906932: RAF = 0.03, OR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.53 to 2.08, P = 1.39×10(-13)). Risk variants rs114798100 and rs111906923 are only found in men of African ancestry, with rs111906923 representing a novel association signal. The three variants are located within or near a number of prostate cancer-associated long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs), including PRNCR1, PCAT1, and PCAT2. These findings highlight ancestry-specific risk variation and implicate prostate-specific lncRNAs at the 8q24 prostate cancer susceptibility region., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Differences in internal dose of nicotine and tobacco-derived carcinogens among ethnic/racial groups have been observed. In this study, we explicitly examined the relationships between genetic ancestries (genome-wide average) and 19 tobacco-derived biomarkers in smokers from 3 admixed groups in the Multiethnic Cohort Study (1993-present), namely, African ancestry in African Americans (n = 362), Amerindian ancestry in Latinos (n = 437), and Asian and Native Hawaiian ancestries in Native Hawaiians (n = 300). After multiple comparison adjustment, both African and Asian ancestries were significantly related to a greater level of free cotinine; African ancestry was also significantly related to lower cotinine glucuronidation (P's < 0.00156). The predicted decrease in cotinine glucuronidation was 8.6% (P = 4.5 × 10(-6)) per a 20% increase in African ancestry. Follow-up admixture mapping revealed that African ancestry in a 12-Mb region on chromosome 4q was related to lower cotinine glucuronidation (P's < 2.7 × 10(-7), smallest P = 1.5 × 10(-9)), although this is the same region reported in our previous genome-wide association study. Our results implicate a genetic ancestral component in the observed ethnic/racial variation in nicotine metabolism. Further studies are needed to identify the underlying genetic variation that could potentially be ethnic/racial specific., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Studies have provided evidence of an inverse association between atopic allergic conditions (AACs) and invasive colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in predominantly white populations. We examined the association between AACs (asthma, hay fever, or allergy) and CRC among white, African-American, Native Hawaiian, Japanese-American, and Latino men and women in the Multiethnic Cohort Study within Hawaii and Los Angeles, California. The prospective analysis included 4,834 incident CRC cases and 1,363 CRC-related deaths ascertained between 1993 and 2010. We examined associations by ethnicity, location, stage, and potential effect modification by CRC risk factors. AACs were associated with a reduced risk of CRC incidence among both men and women (relative risk (RR) = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80, 0.92). The reduction in risk was noted in all populations except Latinos and was significant in whites (RR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.73, 0.98), African Americans (RR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.95), Native Hawaiians (RR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.54, 0.96), and Japanese Americans (RR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.78, 0.98). Individuals with AACs also had a 20% reduction in CRC-related mortality (P = 0.001). These findings provide evidence for the potential protective role of the reactive immune system in colorectal cancer., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Additive interactions can have public health and etiological implications but are infrequently reported. We assessed departures from additivity on the absolute risk scale between 9 established breast cancer risk factors and 23 susceptibility single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified from genome-wide association studies among 10,146 non-Hispanic white breast cancer cases and 12,760 controls within the National Cancer Institute's Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium. We estimated the relative excess risk due to interaction and its 95% confidence interval for each pairwise combination of SNPs and nongenetic risk factors using age- and cohort-adjusted logistic regression models. After correction for multiple comparisons, we identified a statistically significant relative excess risk due to interaction (uncorrected P = 4.51 × 10(-5)) between a SNP in the DNA repair protein RAD51 homolog 2 gene (RAD51L1; rs10483813) and body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)). We also compared additive and multiplicative polygenic risk prediction models using per-allele odds ratio estimates from previous studies for breast-cancer susceptibility SNPs and observed that the multiplicative model had a substantially better goodness of fit than the additive model., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Diabetes is an emerging risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but prospective data from different ethnic populations are scarce. We examined the association between diabetes and HCC in 168679 African Americans, Native Hawaiians, Japanese Americans, Latinos and whites in the Multiethnic Cohort., Methods: During a 15.7-year follow up period, 470 incident HCC cases were identified. Risk factor data were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. Cox regressions were used to calculate hazard rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for HCC associated with self-reported diabetes. The population attributable risk percent associated with diabetes was also calculated. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: The RRs for developing HCC (vs whites) were 2.73 (95% CI = 2.00 to 3.72) for Latinos, 2.48 (95% CI = 1.59 to 3.87) for Hawaiians, 2.16 (95% CI = 1.52 to 3.07) for African Americans, and 2.05 (95% CI = 1.50 to 2.81) for Japanese. Diabetes was associated with HCC across ethnic groups (RRLatinos = 3.36 [95% CI = 2.41 to 4.70], RRHawaiians = 2.50 [95% CI = 1.11 to 5.64], RRJapanese = 2.34 [95% CI = 1.60 to 3.41], RRwhites = 2.15 [95% CI = 0.95 to 4.90], and RRAfrican Americans = 2.02 [95% CI = 1.17 to 3.48]). We estimated that 27% of HCC cases in Latinos, 18% in Hawaiians, 13% in African Americans, 12% in Japanese, and 6% in whites were attributed to diabetes., Conclusions: Latinos were at the highest risk of developing HCC, followed by Native Hawaiians, African Americans, Japanese and whites. Diabetes is a risk factor for HCC in all ethnic groups, and eliminating diabetes could potentially reduce HCC incidence in all ethnic groups, with the largest potential for reduction in Latinos., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: The insulin-like growth factor (IGF) signaling pathway has been implicated in prostate cancer (PCa) initiation, but its role in progression remains unknown., Methods: Among 5887 PCa patients (704 PCa deaths) of European ancestry from seven cohorts in the National Cancer Institute Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium, we conducted Cox kernel machine pathway analysis to evaluate whether 530 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 26 IGF pathway-related genes were collectively associated with PCa mortality. We also conducted SNP-specific analysis using stratified Cox models adjusting for multiple testing. In 2424 patients (313 PCa deaths), we evaluated the association of prediagnostic circulating IGF1 and IGFBP3 levels and PCa mortality. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: The IGF signaling pathway was associated with PCa mortality (P = .03), and IGF2-AS and SSTR2 were the main contributors (both P = .04). In SNP-specific analysis, 36 SNPs were associated with PCa mortality with P trend less than .05, but only three SNPs in the IGF2-AS remained statistically significant after gene-based corrections. Two were in linkage disequilibrium (r 2 = 1 for rs1004446 and rs3741211), whereas the third, rs4366464, was independent (r 2 = 0.03). The hazard ratios (HRs) per each additional risk allele were 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06 to 1.34; P trend = .003) for rs3741211 and 1.44 (95% CI = 1.20 to 1.73; P trend < .001) for rs4366464. rs4366464 remained statistically significant after correction for all SNPs (P trend.corr = .04). Prediagnostic IGF1 (HRhighest vs lowest quartile = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.48 to 1.04) and IGFBP3 (HR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.65 to 1.34) levels were not associated with PCa mortality., Conclusions: The IGF signaling pathway, primarily IGF2-AS and SSTR2 genes, may be important in PCa survival.

Background: A common genetic variant (rs10993994) in the 5' region of the gene encoding β-microseminoprotein (MSP) is associated with circulating levels of MSP and prostate cancer risk. Whether MSP levels are predictive of prostate cancer risk has not been evaluated., Methods: We investigated the prospective relationship between circulating plasma levels of MSP and prostate cancer risk in a nested case-control study of 1503 case subjects and 1503 control subjects among black, Latino, Japanese, Native Hawaiian, and white men from the Multiethnic Cohort study. We also examined the ability of MSP to serve as a biomarker for discriminating prostate cancer case subjects from control subjects. All statistical tests are two-sided., Results: In all racial and ethnic groups, men with lower MSP levels were at greater risk of developing prostate cancer (odds ratio = 1.02 per one unit decrease in MSP, P < .001 in the prostate-specific antigen [PSA]-adjusted analysis). Compared with men in the highest decile of MSP, the multivariable PSA-adjusted odds ratio was 3.64 (95% confidence interval = 2.41 to 5.49) for men in the lowest decile. The positive association with lower MSP levels was observed consistently across racial and ethnic populations, by disease stage and Gleason score, for men with both high and low levels of PSA and across all genotype classes of rs10993994. However, we did not detect strong evidence of MSP levels in improving prostate cancer prediction beyond that of PSA., Conclusions: Regardless of race and ethnicity or rs10993994 genotype, men with low blood levels of MSP have increased risk of prostate cancer.

Observational studies have found an inverse association between type 2 diabetes (T2D) and prostate cancer (PCa), and genome-wide association studies have found common variants near 3 loci associated with both diseases. The authors examined whether a genetic background that favors T2D is associated with risk of advanced PCa. Data from the National Cancer Institute's Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium, a genome-wide association study of 2,782 advanced PCa cases and 4,458 controls, were used to evaluate whether individual single nucleotide polymorphisms or aggregations of these 36 T2D susceptibility loci are associated with PCa. Ten T2D markers near 9 loci (NOTCH2, ADCY5, JAZF1, CDKN2A/B, TCF7L2, KCNQ1, MTNR1B, FTO, and HNF1B) were nominally associated with PCa (P < 0.05); the association for single nucleotide polymorphism rs757210 at the HNF1B locus was significant when multiple comparisons were accounted for (adjusted P = 0.001). Genetic risk scores weighted by the T2D log odds ratio and multilocus kernel tests also indicated a significant relation between T2D variants and PCa risk. A mediation analysis of 9,065 PCa cases and 9,526 controls failed to produce evidence that diabetes mediates the association of the HNF1B locus with PCa risk. These data suggest a shared genetic component between T2D and PCa and add to the evidence for an interrelation between these diseases.

Regression calibration has been described as a means of correcting effects of measurement error for normally distributed dietary variables. When foods are the items of interest, true distributions of intake are often positively skewed, may contain many zeroes, and are usually not described by well-known statistical distributions. The authors considered the validity of regression calibration assumptions where data are non-Gaussian. Such data (including many zeroes) were simulated, and use of the regression calibration algorithm was evaluated. An example used data from Adventist Health Study 2 (2002-2008). In this special situation, a linear calibration model does (as usual) at least approximately correct the parameter that captures the exposure-disease association in the "disease" model. Poor fit in the calibration model does not produce biased calibrated estimates when the "disease" model is linear, and it produces little bias in a nonlinear "disease" model if the model is approximately linear. Poor fit will adversely affect statistical power, but more complex linear calibration models can help here. The authors conclude that non-Gaussian data with many zeroes do not invalidate regression calibration. Irrespective of fit, linear regression calibration in this situation at least approximately corrects bias. More complex linear calibration equations that improve fit may increase power over that of uncalibrated regressions.

Background: Recently, several genome-wide association studies have identified various genetic susceptibility loci for breast cancer. Relatively little is known about the possible interactions between these loci and the established risk factors for breast cancer., Methods: To assess interactions between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and established risk factors, we prospectively collected DNA samples and questionnaire data from 8576 breast cancer case subjects and 11 892 control subjects nested within the National Cancer Institute's Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3). We genotyped 17 germline SNPs (FGFR2-rs2981582, FGFR2-rs3750817, TNRC9-rs3803662, 2q35-rs13387042, MAP3K1-rs889312, 8q24-rs13281615, CASP8-rs1045485, LSP1-rs3817198, COL1A1-rs2075555, COX11-rs6504950, RNF146-rs2180341, 6q25-rs2046210, SLC4A7-rs4973768, NOTCH2-rs11249433, 5p12-rs4415084, 5p12-rs10941679, RAD51L1-rs999737), and odds ratios were estimated by logistic regression to confirm previously reported associations with breast cancer risk. We performed likelihood ratio test to assess interactions between 17 SNPs and nine established risk factors (age at menarche, parity, age at menopause, use of hormone replacement therapy, family history, height, body mass index, smoking status, and alcohol consumption), and a correction for multiple testing of 153 tests (adjusted P value threshold = .05/153 = 3 × 10(-4)) was done. Case-case comparisons were performed for possible differential associations of polymorphisms by subgroups of tumor stage, estrogen and progesterone receptor status, and age at diagnosis. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: We confirmed the association of 14 SNPs with breast cancer risk (P(trend) = 2.57 × 10(-3) -3.96 × 10(-19)). Three SNPs (LSP1-rs3817198, COL1A1-rs2075555, and RNF146-rs2180341) did not show association with breast cancer risk. After accounting for multiple testing, no statistically significant interactions were detected between the 17 SNPs and the nine risk factors. We also confirmed that SNPs in FGFR2 and TNRC9 were associated with greater risk of estrogen receptor-positive than estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer (P(heterogeneity) = .0016 for FGFR2-rs2981582 and P(heterogeneity) = .0053 for TNRC9-rs3803662). SNP 5p12-rs10941679 was statistically significantly associated with greater risk of progesterone receptor-positive than progesterone receptor-negative breast cancer (P(heterogeneity) = .0028)., Conclusion: This study does not support the hypothesis that known common breast cancer susceptibility loci strongly modify the associations between established risk factors and breast cancer.

Background: Androgens are key regulators of prostate gland maintenance and prostate cancer growth, and androgen deprivation therapy has been the mainstay of treatment for advanced prostate cancer for many years. A long-standing hypothesis has been that inherited variation in the androgen receptor (AR) gene plays a role in prostate cancer initiation. However, studies to date have been inconclusive and often suffered from small sample sizes., Objective and Methods: We investigated the association of AR sequence variants with circulating sex hormone levels and prostate cancer risk in 6058 prostate cancer cases and 6725 controls of Caucasian origin within the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium. We genotyped a highly polymorphic CAG microsatellite in exon 1 and six haplotype tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms and tested each genetic variant for association with prostate cancer risk and with sex steroid levels., Results: We observed no association between AR genetic variants and prostate cancer risk. However, there was a strong association between longer CAG repeats and higher levels of testosterone (P = 4.73 x 10(-5)) and estradiol (P = 0.0002), although the amount of variance explained was small (0.4 and 0.7%, respectively)., Conclusions: This study is the largest to date investigating AR sequence variants, sex steroid levels, and prostate cancer risk. Although we observed no association between AR sequence variants and prostate cancer risk, our results support earlier findings of a relation between the number of CAG repeats and circulating levels of testosterone and estradiol.

Among men of European ancestry, diabetics have a lower risk of prostate cancer than do nondiabetics. The biologic basis of this association is unknown. The authors have examined whether the association is robust across populations in a population-based prospective study. The analysis included 5,941 prostate cancer cases identified over a 12-year period (1993-2005) among 86,303 European-American, African-American, Latino, Japanese-American, and Native Hawaiian men from the Multiethnic Cohort. The association between diabetes and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels (n = 2,874) and PSA screening frequencies (n = 46,970) was also examined. Diabetics had significantly lower risk of prostate cancer than did nondiabetics (relative risk = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 0.87; P < 0.001), with relative risks ranging from 0.65 (95% CI: 0.50, 0.84; P = 0.001) among European Americans to 0.89 (95% CI: 0.77, 1.03; P = 0.13) among African Americans. Mean PSA levels were significantly lower in diabetics than in nondiabetics (mean PSA levels, 1.07 and 1.28, respectively; P = 0.003) as were PSA screening frequencies (44.7% vs. 48.6%; P < 0.001); however, this difference could explain only a small portion ( approximately 20%) of the inverse association between these diseases. Diabetes is a protective factor for prostate cancer across populations, suggesting shared risk factors that influence a common mechanism.

High intakes of calcium and dairy products have been suggested to be related to prostate cancer risk. Such associations were examined in the Multiethnic Cohort Study (1993-2002) among 82,483 men who completed a detailed quantitative food frequency questionnaire. During a mean follow-up of 8 years, 4,404 total cases of prostate cancer were identified. In Cox proportional hazards models, no association was found between calcium and vitamin D intake and total, advanced, or high-grade prostate cancer risk, whether for total intake, intake from foods, or intake from supplements, among all male participants or among nonusers of supplemental calcium. No association of calcium or vitamin D intake was seen across racial/ethnic groups. In analyses of food groups, dairy product and total milk consumption were not associated with prostate cancer risk. However, low-/nonfat milk was related to an increased risk and whole milk to a decreased risk of total prostate cancer; after stratification, these effects were limited to localized or low-grade tumors. Although the findings from this study do not support an association between the intakes of calcium and vitamin D and prostate cancer risk, they do suggest that an association with milk consumption may vary by fat content, particularly for early forms of this cancer.

The association of body size, lifestyle, and medical conditions with renal cell cancer risk was examined among 161,126 Hawaii-Los Angeles Multiethnic Cohort participants (1993-2002). After 8.3 years of follow-up, 347 renal cell cancer cases (220 men, 127 women) were identified. Renal cell cancer risk increased with increasing body mass index in men (multivariate relative risk (RR) = 1.06 per unit of body mass index, p = 0.001) and women (RR = 1.07, p < 0.0001). The relative risks associated with being obese compared with being lean were 1.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20, 2.58) for men and 2.27 (95% CI: 1.37, 3.74) for women. Hypertension was associated with renal cell cancer (RR-men = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.87; RR-women = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.09, 2.28). Smoking was confirmed to be a risk factor for both sexes. Among women, diuretic use was associated with increased risk (RR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.57), whereas physical activity was associated with reduced risk (ptrend = 0.027). Alcohol consumption was inversely associated with risk for men (ptrend = 0.045). Compared with nondrinkers, men who drank >or=1 drinks/day had a 31% lower risk (95% CI: 0.49, 0.96). Results show that body mass index, smoking, and hypertension are risk factors for renal cell cancer in both sexes.

Dietary phytochemical compounds, including isoflavones and isothiocyanates, may inhibit cancer development but have not yet been examined in prospective epidemiologic studies of ovarian cancer. The authors have investigated the association between consumption of these and other nutrients and ovarian cancer risk in a prospective cohort study. Among 97,275 eligible women in the California Teachers Study cohort who completed the baseline dietary assessment in 1995-1996, 280 women developed invasive or borderline ovarian cancer by December 31, 2003. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, with age as the timescale, was used to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals; all statistical tests were two sided. Intake of isoflavones was associated with lower risk of ovarian cancer. Compared with the risk for women who consumed less than 1 mg of total isoflavones per day, the relative risk of ovarian cancer associated with consumption of more than 3 mg/day was 0.56 (95% confidence interval: 0.33, 0.96). Intake of isothiocyanates or foods high in isothiocyanates was not associated with ovarian cancer risk, nor was intake of macronutrients, antioxidant vitamins, or other micronutrients. Although dietary consumption of isoflavones may be associated with decreased ovarian cancer risk, most dietary factors are unlikely to play a major role in ovarian cancer development.

Background: Insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) appears to play a role in prostate development and carcinogenesis. We investigated whether genetic variation at the IGF1 locus is associated with prostate cancer risk., Methods: We sequenced IGF1 exons in germline DNA from 95 men with advanced prostate cancer to identify missense variants. IGF1 linkage disequilibrium patterns and common haplotypes were characterized by genotyping 64 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning 156 kilobases in 349 control subjects. Associations between IGF1 haplotypes and genotypes were investigated among 2320 patients with prostate cancer and 2290 control subjects from the Multiethnic Cohort. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by unconditional logistic regression to determine the association between prostate cancer and IGF1 haplotypes and genotypes. We used permutation testing to correct for multiple hypothesis testing. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: No IGF1 missense variants were observed. We identified four blocks of strong linkage disequilibrium and selected a subset of 29 tagging SNPs that could accurately predict both the common IGF1 haplotypes and the remaining SNPs. Haplotype analysis revealed nominally statistically significant associations with prostate cancer risk in each of the four haplotype blocks: haplotype 1B (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.40), haplotype 2C (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.44), haplotype 3C (OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.50), and haplotype 4D (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.39). Two SNPs--rs7978742 (Ptrend = .002) and rs7965399 (Ptrend = .002)--were perfectly correlated (correlation coefficient = 1.0) with one another and also associated with prostate cancer risk. These two SNPs were strong proxies for haplotypes 1B, 2C, 3C, and 4D and could account for the haplotype findings. Permutation testing revealed that a similarly strong result would be observed by chance only 5.6% of the time., Conclusion: Inherited variation in IGF1 may play a role in the risk of prostate cancer.

Background: The PROGINS allele of the progesterone receptor (PGR) gene has been associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer and a decreased risk of breast cancer. We set out to refine the association between common variation at the PGR gene locus and these two diseases., Methods: We characterized the haplotype structure of the PGR gene by genotyping 54 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 349 women. We then selected a subset of 17 haplotype-tagging SNPs that captured variation across the locus and typed them in 267 ovarian cancer case patients and 397 control subjects from two case-control studies and in 1715 breast cancer case patients and 2505 control subjects from a cohort study., Results: The PGR locus was characterized by four blocks of strong linkage disequilibrium. Two SNPs in block 4 were associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer among homozygous carriers as compared with noncarriers: rs1042838 (PROGINS allele; odds ratio [OR] = 3.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19 to 8.75, P = .022) and rs608995 (minor allele; OR = 3.10, 95% CI = 1.63 to 5.89, P<.001). The PROGINS allele was observed on a subset of chromosomes carrying the minor allele at rs608995, and its association with ovarian cancer was fully explained by its association with rs608995. In addition, rs608995 fell on two common haplotypes (4-D and 4-E), whose association with ovarian cancer was the same as that of rs608995. These same two haplotypes were associated with a non-statistically significantly reduced risk of breast cancer., Conclusions: Variation in PGR was associated with ovarian cancer risk, although the strongest result was not with the PROGINS allele. Instead, any causal allele(s) are likely in or downstream of block 4 and carried on haplotypes 4-D and 4-E. There was some evidence that the same variation was associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer, but the association was not statistically significant.

The results of three randomized trials of beta-carotene supplementation for the prevention of lung cancer among smokers are in contradiction to a large body of epidemiologic evidence for the reduction of risk of lung cancer among smokers with higher intake and/or higher serum levels of beta-carotene. Complicating this issue are widely noted negative associations between tobacco use and intake or serum levels of beta-carotene. Although observational studies attempt to control for reported smoking histories, the accuracy of self-reported smoking is uncertain; correlations as low as 0.5 between reported and true smoking exposure are not inconsistent with studies of biomarkers of cigarette exposure. The authors developed a simple statistical model for random errors in reported smoking (relative to true tobacco exposure) and assumed a modest (inverse) relation between true tobacco exposure and serum beta-carotene. Calculations from this model, combined with a model for lung cancer contemplated by Doll and Peto (J Epidemiol Community Health 1978;78:303-13), suggest that biases in assessment of smoking exposure between smokers with low versus high beta-carotene intake may plausibly explain much or all of the observed protective effect of high beta-carotene levels. Appropriate cohort studies of lung cancer in smokers, utilizing biomarkers of smoking, are needed and are presently ongoing.

Regression calibration is a technique that corrects biases in regression results in situations where exposure variables are measured with error. The existence of a calibration substudy, where accurate and crude measurement methods are related by a second regression analysis, is assumed. The cost of measurement error in multivariate analyses is loss of statistical power. In this paper, calibration data from California Seventh-day Adventists are used to simulate study populations and new calibration studies. Applying regression calibration logistic analyses, the authors estimate power for pairs of nutritional variables. The results demonstrate substantial loss of power if variables measured with error are strongly correlated. Biases in estimated effects in cases where regression calibration is not performed can be large and are corrected by regression calibration. When the true coefficient has zero value, the corresponding coefficient in a crude analysis will usually have a nonzero expected value. Then type I error probabilities are not nominal, and the erroneous appearance of statistical significance can readily occur, particularly in large studies. Major determinants of power with use of regression calibration are collinearity between the variables measured with error and the size of correlations between crude and corresponding true variables. Where there is important collinearity, useful gains in power accrue with calibration study size up to 1,000 subjects.

The authors describe the design and implementation of a large multiethnic cohort established to study diet and cancer in the United States. They detail the source of the subjects, sample size, questionnaire development, pilot work, and approaches to future analyses. The cohort consists of 215,251 adult men and women (age 45-75 years at baseline) living in Hawaii and in California (primarily Los Angeles County) with the following ethnic distribution: African-American (16.3%), Latino (22.0%), Japanese-American (26.4%), Native Hawaiian (6.5%), White (22.9%), and other ancestry (5.8%). From 1993 to 1996, participants entered the cohort by completing a 26-page, self-administered mail questionnaire that elicited a quantitative food frequency history, along with demographic and other information. Response rates ranged from 20% in Latinos to 49% in Japanese-Americans. As expected, both within and among ethnic groups, the questionnaire data show substantial variations in dietary intakes (nutrients as well as foods) and in the distributions of non-dietary risk factors (including smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, and physical activity). When compared with corresponding ethnic-specific cancer incidence rates, the findings provide tentative support for several current dietary hypotheses. As sufficient numbers of cancer cases are identified through surveillance of the cohort, dietary and other hypotheses will be tested in prospective analyses.

The performance of the dietary questionnaire used in a multiethnic cohort study in Hawaii and Los Angeles was assessed in a calibration substudy that compared diet reported from the questionnaire with three 24-hour dietary recalls. For the calibration substudy, subjects from each of eight subgroups defined by sex and ethnic group (African-American, Japanese-American, Latino, and White) were chosen randomly from among the cohort members, and each participant's previous day's diet was assessed by telephone recall on three occasions over approximately 2 months. After completing the three 24-hour recalls, each calibration subject was sent a second questionnaire; 1,606 persons completed three recalls and a second questionnaire (127 to 267 per ethnic-sex group). This report describes correlation coefficients and calibration slopes for the relation between the 24-hour recalls and second questionnaire values for a selected set of macro- and micronutrients, as absolute intakes, nutrient densities, and calorie-adjusted nutrients. In all subgroups, estimates of the correlation between the questionnaire and 24-hour recalls were greater after energy adjustment (average correlations ranged from 0.57-0.74 for nutrient densities and from 0.55-0.74 for calorie-adjusted nutrients) than when absolute nutrient values were used (average range 0.26-0.57). For absolute nutrient intakes, the correlations were greatest for Whites, somewhat lower for Japanese-Americans and Latinos, and lowest for African-Americans. After energy adjustment, the difference between subgroups were diminished, and the correlations were generally highly satisfactory.

Previous epidemiologic studies have suggested an association between maternal sex hormone use during pregnancy, including infertility medication, and an increased risk of neuroblastoma in the offspring. The authors conducted a case-control interview study from 1992 to 1996 that included 504 children less than 19 years of age whose newly diagnosed neuroblastoma was identified by two national collaborative clinical trials groups in the United States and Canada, the Children's Cancer Group and the Pediatric Oncology Group. Controls, matched to cases on age, were identified by random digit dialing. No association was found for use of oral contraceptives before or during pregnancy (first trimester odds ratio (OR) = 1.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.5, 2.1). The odds ratio was slightly elevated for history of infertility (OR = 1.4, 95% CI: 0.9, 2.1) and ever use of any infertility medication (OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 0.7, 2.2). Specifically, ever use of clomiphene was associated with a 1.6-fold increased risk (95% CI: 0.8, 3.0) but not periconceptionally or during the index pregnancy. A suggestive pattern was found for gender of the offspring, with an increased risk for males but not for females after exposure to oral contraceptives or clomiphene. This study did not find consistent and large increased risks for maternal use of hormones, but the suggestion of an association for male offspring requires further consideration.

Background: There is compelling evidence that estrogens influence breast cancer risk. Since the mid-1980s, dietary fat intervention studies have been conducted to investigate the effect of fat intake on endogenous estrogen levels. To further our understanding of the possible relationship between dietary fat and breast cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of dietary fat intervention studies that investigated serum estradiol levels, and we reviewed the nature of the evidence provided by prospective analytic studies of fat consumption and breast cancer risk., Methods: A computerized search of the English language literature on estrogen/estradiol and dietary fat intervention studies published from January 1966 through June 1998 was conducted using the MEDLINE database. Pooled estimates were derived from the change in estradiol levels associated with fat reduction from 13 studies. Analyses were conducted separately for premenopausal and postmenopausal women and in both groups combined., Results and Conclusions: Statistically significant reductions in serum estradiol levels of -7.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -11.7% to -2.9%) among premenopausal women and -23.0% (95% CI = -27.7% to -18.1%) among postmenopausal women were observed, with an overall -13.4% (95% CI = -16.6% to -10.1%) reduction observed. The greatest reductions occurred in two studies in which dietary fat was reduced to 10%-12% of calories compared with 18%-25% of calories in the other studies. A statistically significant reduction in estradiol levels of -6.6% (95% CI = -10.3% to -2.7%) remained after exclusion of these two studies. Review of prospective analytic epidemiologic studies that allowed for dietary measurement error suggests that the possibility that reducing fat consumption below 20% of calories will reduce breast cancer risk cannot be excluded., Implications: Dietary fat reduction can result in a lowering of serum estradiol levels and such dietary modification may still offer an approach to breast cancer prevention.

Eighteen transfusion recipients infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) were followed prospectively with their 19 long-term sexual partners from 1986 to 1993 in California, Florida, and New York. Follow-up included clinical, behavioral, immunologic, serologic, and virologic evaluations. Two partners were already infected when seen 18 and 34 months after sexual contact began following the infectious transfusion. Four of 17 initially seronegative partners seroconverted during 23 person-years of observation. The recipient's clinical status, mononuclear cell subset variations, and time trend in CD4+ counts had no association with transmission. Individual plasma HIV-1 ribonucleic acid (RNA) loads were stable during observation, and sexual transmission was not attributable to an upward trend or transient burst in viremia. However, recipients who transmitted HIV-1 to their sexual partners had higher mean viral RNA levels than did nontransmitting recipients (4.3 vs. 3.6 log10 copies/ml; p = 0.05). Although this series was small, the prospective observations suggest that viral load was the only characteristic in the recipient that contributed to heterosexual infectiousness.

One hundred thirty-two recipients of blood components that retrospectively tested positive for antibody to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (anti-HIV-1) were identified. Fourteen (11%) remained seronegative throughout follow-up. Donor and recipient characteristics that could have influenced transmission were examined. Attributes did not differ for infected and uninfected recipients. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from uninfected recipients were HIV-1-negative by DNA amplification and culture but were susceptible to in vitro infection. Transmitting and nontransmitting donors at donation differed only for HIV-1 RNA positivity. By immunocapture reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction, 6 of 11 transmitters and 0 of 11 nontransmitters tested RNA-positive (P = .02). A more sensitive quantitative RNA assay detected RNA in all donation sera, but median levels were higher in transmitting than nontransmitting sera (P = .01). Median CD4 cell counts were lower for transmitting than nontransmitting donors at enrollment (P = .02). Level of viremia is an important determinant of HIV infection by blood transfusion.

Background: Neuroblastomas show different histopathologic phenotypes, and the tumor cells can carry normal or multiple copies of the N-myc proto-oncogene (MYCN). Studies of the N-myc gene and histopathology of untreated primary neuroblastomas have demonstrated that both these factors are important in risk assessment., Purpose: Our purpose was to determine if there are any associations between N-myc gene copy number, histopathologic features, clinical stage, and progression-free survival (PFS) and if joint analyses of histopathology and N-myc gene copy number improve risk assessment., Methods: The histopathologic phenotype and N-myc gene copy number were determined for 232 biopsy/surgery specimens obtained from untreated primary neuroblastoma patients. Tumors were classified as having favorable or unfavorable histology on the basis of Schwannian stroma (rich versus poor), neuroblastic differentiation (differentiating versus undifferentiated), and mitosis-karyorrhexis (fragmenting nucleus) index (MKI; high, intermediate, or low) in the context of age at diagnosis (Shimada classification). N-myc gene amplification was considered significant when the gene copy number was at least 10-fold higher than normal as determined by Southern blot analysis. Otherwise, tumors were classified as nonamplified for N-myc., Results: Among 19 stroma-rich tumors, 11 had grossly visible neuroblastic nodules, and two of these had N-myc amplification. Of 213 stroma-poor tumors, 51 had N-myc amplification, all of which were undifferentiated, and 45 (88% of 51) had high MKI. This histologic phenotype was present in less than 10% of tumors with nonamplified N-myc. Of 162 stroma-poor tumors that showed nonamplified N-myc, 45 (28%) were differentiating and 121 (75%) had low MKI. Neuroblastomas of clinical stages I, II, and IV-S nearly always had favorable histology and no amplification of N-myc. Stage III (regional) and particularly stage IV (metastatic) tumors, however, frequently had unfavorable histologic features with or without N-myc amplification. The estimated PFS at the end of 4 years after diagnosis was 83% for patients whose tumors had favorable histology and no N-myc amplification. The estimated PFS for the patients whose neuroblastomas had unfavorable histology, however, was 29% without and 13% with N-myc amplification, respectively. Subsets of patients with stage II, III, or IV disease were identified by both histologic evaluation and N-myc analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that both the histologic and N-myc-based stratifications provided prognostic information that was independent of staging., Conclusions: Neuroblastomas with N-myc amplification have a characteristic histopathologic phenotype and an aggressive clinical course. In contrast, neuroblastomas without N-myc amplification exhibit a wide range of histologic features that can define prognostic subsets.

Age differences among risk groups may account for rate differences in progression of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection to AIDS. Institutions in 6 US cities used a common protocol to study infected homosexual blood donors, recipients of blood components, and factor VIII-treated hemophiliacs. Follow-up was every 6 months. Actuarial risk for AIDS 8 years after infection was 51% among blood recipients, 36% among homosexual donors, and 24% among hemophiliacs. Significant risk group differences were explained by age differences among cohorts (medians of 61, 29, and 22 years, respectively). When age was adjusted for and both CD4 cell value and zidovudine treatment were used as time-dependent covariates, homosexual donors had more rapid progression than the other groups. Omitting Kaposi's sarcoma as an AIDS-defining condition removed any significant differences among risk groups except CD4 cell count and age. Thus, major factors in AIDS progression are age-related.

Validation studies of food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) describe the extent to which the FFQ reflects true diet and the relation between measured and true diet (calibration). Calibration data can be used to estimate the relation between disease and diet that would have been observed in the absence of error due to the FFQ. In this paper, the authors consider the optimal design of a validation study when the goal is precise calibration of an FFQ. The authors posed the following question: Under the constraint of a fixed total cost for a validation study, what is the optimal choice of number of subjects (n) and number of days (m) of diet records (or 24-hour recalls) per subject? The optimal n and m were found to depend upon 1) the ratio between the costs of the initial and subsequent 1-day diet records and 2) the ratio of the variance in day-to-day nutrient intake to the variance in true diet for a fixed FFQ value. Data for the two ratios and optimal values of n and m are given under a variety of realistic scenarios. The authors conclude that in most settings the optimal study design will rarely require more than four or five 1-day diet records per subject.

Random errors in the DS86 radiation dose estimates used in the analysis of A-bomb survivor data are recognized to have an important impact upon estimates of the risk of late effects such as cancer. Little however is known for certain concerning the distribution of such random errors. This paper gives an overview of recent work at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) using multivariate analysis of biological data, including acute effects of radiation exposure, late effects (eg leukemia mortality) and stable chromosome aberrations, for the purpose of evaluating the extent of random error in the estimation of individual doses using DS86. The emphasis here is on analyses of apparent association between biological endpoints, in light of a dosimetry error model framework proposed recently by Pierce et al. Analyses performed to date appear to be consistent with the view that lognormal random dosimetry errors with a standard deviation of 40% or greater of true dose may exist in DS86. Association between radiogenic outcomes in A-bomb survivors, after adjustment for DS86 estimated dose level, has been detected for such widely varying pairs of outcomes as mutant T-cell frequencies and chromosome aberrations, epilation and leukemia mortality, and epilation and chromosome aberrations. The motivation for examining association between pairs of biological endpoints has usually been to determine the extent to which radiation sensitivity varies between individual survivors. Recognizing, however, that random error in dose estimates results in apparent association between biological outcomes is crucial to interpreting studies, such as these, which use data on multiple biological endpoints. To go one step further, in situations where there is a prior knowledge about the biological plausibility of such associations in outcome data the amount of association between radiogenic outcomes (remaining after adjustment for estimated dose), to the extent that they are greater than that assumed to be reasonable, is an important potential source of information concerning the magnitude of random errors in the DS86 dose estimates.

Unless allowances are made, random errors in radiation dose estimates cause underestimation of linear risk estimates and distort the shape of dose-response curves. These errors also result in spurious associations between radiogenic endpoints, exaggerating possible variations in individual sensitivity to radiation. Statistical methods have been developed which reduce these biases, based on assumptions regarding the nature and magnitude of dose-estimation errors. Some understanding of the underlying statistical basis for these methods is necessary to both those interested in interpreting radiogenic effects and those interested in the dosimetry system. This paper discusses the basic statistical issues and their implications, presents some statistical methods to deal with the problem, and indicates the sensitivity of certain results to assumptions about the magnitude of the dose-estimation errors.

Associations of smoking habit with serum levels of total protein as well as protein fractions were studied in a population consisting of 4,739 atomic-bomb survivors and unexposed control subjects in Hiroshima, Japan who participated in the 1979-1981 period of the Adult Health Study, an ongoing health follow-up program of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. Smoking was strongly related to serum protein concentration after correction for age, sex, and body mass index. Among current smokers, levels of total protein, beta globulin, and gamma globulin were significantly lower and levels of alpha-1 and alpha-2 globulin were significantly higher, when compared with nonsmokers. For serum albumin levels a decrease was also noted, but it failed to attain statistical significance. Ex-smokers were indistinguishable from nonsmokers in terms of the serum protein levels analyzed. With an increase of the amount of daily cigarette consumption, monotonic increases of serum levels were observed only in alpha-1 globulin. Duration of smoking was related to increased alpha-1 and alpha-2 globulin. Smoking duration was also associated with albumin level, but the trend was not monotonic. The radiation exposure effect on serum protein level was significant in several instances but was in general much smaller than the smoking effect, and its inclusion in the regression models did not noticeably affect the association between smoking and serum proteins.