1. Development and validation of explainable machine learning models for risk of mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation: TAVI risk machine scores
- Author
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Andreas Leha, Cynthia Huber, Tim Friede, Timm Bauer, Andreas Beckmann, Raffi Bekeredjian, Sabine Bleiziffer, Eva Herrmann, Helge Möllmann, Thomas Walther, Friedhelm Beyersdorf, Christian Hamm, Arnaud Künzi, Stephan Windecker, Stefan Stortecky, Ingo Kutschka, Gerd Hasenfuß, Stephan Ensminger, Christian Frerker, and Tim Seidler
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General Engineering ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,610 Medicine & health ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
Aims Identification of high-risk patients and individualized decision support based on objective criteria for rapid discharge after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) are key requirements in the context of contemporary TAVI treatment. This study aimed to predict 30-day mortality following TAVI based on machine learning (ML) using data from the German Aortic Valve Registry. Methods and results Mortality risk was determined using a random forest ML model that was condensed in the newly developed TAVI Risk Machine (TRIM) scores, designed to represent clinically meaningful risk modelling before (TRIMpre) and in particular after (TRIMpost) TAVI. Algorithm was trained and cross-validated on data of 22 283 patients (729 died within 30 days post-TAVI) and generalisation was examined on data of 5864 patients (146 died). TRIMpost demonstrated significantly better performance than traditional scores [C-statistics value, 0.79; 95% confidence interval (CI)] [0.74; 0.83] compared to Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) with C-statistics value 0.69; 95%-CI [0.65; 0.74]). An abridged (aTRIMpost) score comprising 25 features (calculated using a web interface) exhibited significantly higher performance than traditional scores (C-statistics value, 0.74; 95%-CI [0.70; 0.78]). Validation on external data of 6693 patients (205 died within 30 days post-TAVI) of the Swiss TAVI Registry confirmed significantly better performance for the TRIMpost (C-statistics value 0.75, 95%-CI [0.72; 0.79]) compared to STS (C-statistics value 0.67, CI [0.63; 0.70]). Conclusion TRIM scores demonstrate good performance for risk estimation before and after TAVI. Together with clinical judgement, they may support standardised and objective decision-making before and after TAVI.
- Published
- 2023
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