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Seismically triggered subaqueous mass movements in lakes may generate tsunamis that can cause significant damage on the shore. In this study, we assess the seismic response and stability of subaqueous slopes in Swiss lakes based on recorded seismological data, historical and geological information and geotechnical surveys. We performed seismic investigations at multiple locations in Lake Lucerne using Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBS). For these locations, we derived ground-motion amplification functions from local and regional earthquakes and horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (H / V) from the earthquake and ambient vibration recordings. The results show (1) very high amplification levels, often exceeding values of 50–100 in the frequency range between 1 and 10 Hz, (2) the fundamental frequency of resonance in the range of 0.5–3.5 Hz and (3) laterally variable site response even for closely located stations. We sought also the signatures of non-linear site response in the H / V curves or ground-motion amplification functions but found only weak indicative effects and no clear evidence. This is most likely due to the low levels of ground motion recorded during the OBS campaigns. We conducted back analyses of historical earthquakes in Switzerland with available documental and/or geological evidence of induced (tsunamigenic) subaqueous slope failures in Swiss lakes. The data set of historical events was complemented with a selection of instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Switzerland. For the analyses, we selected multiple sites in Swiss lakes which failed in the past or are prone to failure in the future. We modelled the ground motion at these locations assuming Swiss standard reference rock conditions (v s 30 = 1105 m s−1). The modelled ground motion intensity measures (IM) included peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) at 0.3, 1 and 2 s. We estimated the minimum ground motion and macroseismic intensity at reference rock conditions required to trigger the failures of subaqueous slopes. In addition, we defined a threshold for the seismic triggering of such failures in terms of moment magnitude (M w) and epicentral distance (Re) as: $$\begin{eqnarray} M_{\rm w}=2.891+1.904\log_{10}(R_e+5.166)\: {\rm for}\: R_e\ge 3.7\: {\rm km}. \end{eqnarray}$$ Our results are consistent with previous studies based on worldwide observations. Furthermore, we related the modelled ground motions to the Swiss seismic hazard products and estimated the return period of critical ground shaking responsible for triggering subaqueous slope failures (with potential for tsunami generation) to be in the range of 36–224 yr. Finally, based on previously collected geotechnical data (in situ Cone Penetration Testing and laboratory sediment analysis), we determined the most likely values of the seismic coefficient k to be used with the ground motion IMs modelled at reference rock conditions in infinite slope stability analyses to estimate the factor of safety (FS). For PGA, we found a k = 1; for PGV, k = 2; for PSA0.3s, k = 0.6; for PSA1s, k = 2 and for PSA2s, k = 5.5. These estimates are conservative and affected by the trade-off between the thickness of unconsolidated sediments and the slope angle. Thus, we recommend applying them to slopes with a low-to-moderate gradient (<15°) and sediment thickness of more than 2 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some geological configurations, like sedimentary basins, are prone to site effects. Basins are often composed of different geological layers whose properties are generally considered as spatially homogeneous or smoothly varying. In this study, we address the influence of small-scale velocity fluctuations on seismic response. For this purpose, we use the spectral element method to model the 2-D SH wave propagation on a basin of 1.1 km long and ≈ 60 m deep, representing a 2-D profile in the city of Nice, France. The velocity fluctuations are modelled statistically as a random process characterized by a Von Karman autocorrelation function and are superimposed to the deterministic model. We assess the influence of the amplitude and correlation length of the random velocities on the surface ground motion. We vary the autocorrelation function's parameters and compute seismic wavefields in 10 random realizations of the stochastic models. The analyses of our results focus on the envelope and phase differences between the waveforms computed in the random and deterministic models; on the variability of ground motion intensity measures, such as the peak ground velocity, the pseudo-spectral acceleration response; and the 2-D basin response (transfer function). We find that the amplitude of fluctuations has a greater effect on the ground motion variability than the correlation length. Depending on the random medium realization, the ground motion in one stochastic model can be locally amplified or deamplified with respect to the reference model due to the presence of high or low velocity contrasts, respectively. When computing the mean amplification of different random realizations, the results may be smaller than those of the reference media due to the smoothing effect of the average. This study highlights the importance of knowing the site properties at different scales, particularly at small scales, for proper seismic hazard assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building geomechanical models for induced seismicity in complex reservoirs poses a major challenge, in particular if many faults need to be included. We developed a novel way of calculating induced stress changes and associated seismic moment response for structurally complex reservoirs with tens to hundreds of faults. Our specific target was to improve the predictive capability of stress evolution along multiple faults, and to use the calculations to enhance physics-based understanding of the reservoir seismicity. Our methodology deploys a mesh-free numerical and analytical approach for both the stress calculation and the seismic moment calculation. We introduce a high-performance computational method for high-resolution induced Coulomb stress changes along faults, based on a Green's function for the stress response to a nucleus of strain. One key ingredient is the deployment of an octree representation and calculation scheme for the nuclei of strain, based on the topology and spatial variability of the mesh of the reservoir flow model. Once the induced stress changes are evaluated along multiple faults, we calculate potential seismic moment release in a fault system supposing an initial stress field. The capability of the approach, dubbed as MACRIS (M echanical A nalysis of C omplex R eservoirs for I nduced S eismicity) is proven through comparisons with finite element models. Computational performance and suitability for probabilistic assessment of seismic hazards are demonstrated though the use of the complex, heavily faulted Gullfaks field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterization of the top 10–50 m of the subseabed is key for landslide hazard assessment, offshore structure engineering design and underground gas-storage monitoring. In this paper, we present a methodology for the stochastic inversion of ultra-high-frequency (UHF, 0.2–4.0 kHz) pre-stack seismic reflection waveforms, designed to obtain a decimetric-resolution remote elastic characterization of the shallow sediments with minimal pre-processing and little a priori information. We use a genetic algorithm in which the space of possible solutions is sampled by explicitly decoupling the short and long wavelengths of the P -wave velocity model. This approach, combined with an objective function robust to cycle skipping, outperforms a conventional model parametrization when the ground-truth is offset from the centre of the search domain. The robust P -wave velocity model is used to precondition the width of the search range of the multiparameter elastic inversion, thereby improving the efficiency in high-dimensional parametrizations. Multiple independent runs provide a set of independent results from which the reproducibility of the solution can be estimated. In a real data set acquired in Finneidfjord, Norway, we also demonstrate the sensitivity of UHF seismic inversion to shallow subseabed anomalies that play a role in submarine slope stability. Thus, the methodology has the potential to become an important practical tool for marine ground model building in spatially heterogeneous areas, reducing the reliance on expensive and time-consuming coring campaigns for geohazard mitigation in marine areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]