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Background Neglected tropical diseases are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in low-income populations. International efforts have reduced their global burden, but transmission is persistent and case-finding-based interventions rarely target asymptomatic individuals. Methods We develop a generic mathematical modeling framework for analyzing the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian sub-continent (VL), gambiense sleeping sickness (gHAT), and Chagas disease and use it to assess the possible contribution of asymptomatics who later develop disease (pre-symptomatics) and those who do not (non-symptomatics) to the maintenance of infection. Plausible interventions, including active screening, vector control, and reduced time to detection, are simulated for the three diseases. Results We found that the high asymptomatic contribution to transmission for Chagas and gHAT and the apparently high basic reproductive number of VL may undermine long-term control. However, the ability to treat some asymptomatics for Chagas and gHAT should make them more controllable, albeit over relatively long time periods due to the slow dynamics of these diseases. For VL, the toxicity of available therapeutics means the asymptomatic population cannot currently be treated, but combining treatment of symptomatics and vector control could yield a quick reduction in transmission. Conclusions Despite the uncertainty in natural history, it appears there is already a relatively good toolbox of interventions to eliminate gHAT, and it is likely that Chagas will need improvements to diagnostics and their use to better target pre-symptomatics. The situation for VL is less clear, and model predictions could be improved by additional empirical data. However, interventions may have to improve to successfully eliminate this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target. Methods. This paper draws together the key policy-relevant conclusions from recent transmission modeling of VL, and presents new predictions for VL incidence under the interventions recommended by the WHO using the latest transmission models. Results. The model predictions suggest that the current WHO guidelines should be sufficient to reach the elimination target in areas that had medium VL endemicities (up to 5 VL cases per 10 000 population per year) prior to the start of interventions. However, additional interventions, such as extending the WHO attack phase (intensive IRS and ACD), may be required to bring forward elimination in regions with high precontrol endemicities, depending on the relative infectiousness of different disease stages. Conclusions. The potential hurdle that asymptomatic and, in particular, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis cases may pose to reaching and sustaining the target needs to be addressed. As VL incidence decreases, the pool of immunologically naive individuals will grow, creating the potential for new outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Routine asymptomatic testing strategies for COVID-19 have been proposed to prevent outbreaks in high-risk healthcare environments. We used simulation modeling to evaluate the optimal frequency of viral testing. We found that routine testing substantially reduces risk of outbreaks, but may need to be as frequent as twice weekly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background On the Indian subcontinent, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence is on track to reach elimination goals by 2020 in nearly all endemic districts. Although not included in official targets, previous data suggest post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) patients can act as an infection reservoir. Methods We conducted xenodiagnosis on 47 PKDL patients and 15 VL patients using laboratory-reared Phlebotomus argentipes. In direct xenodiagnosis, flies were allowed to feed on the patient's skin for 15 minutes. For indirect xenodiagnosis, flies were fed through a membrane on the patient's blood. Five days later, blood-fed flies were dissected and examined by microscopy and/or polymerase chain reaction (PCR). A 3-mm skin snip biopsy (PKDL) or venous blood (VL) was processed by quantitative PCR. Results Twenty-seven PKDL patients (57.4%) had positive results by direct and/or indirect xenodiagnosis. Direct was significantly more sensitive than indirect xenodiagnosis (55.3% vs 6.4%, P <.0001). Those with positive xenodiagnosis had median skin parasite loads >1 log10 unit higher than those with negative results (2.88 vs 1.66, P <.0001). In a multivariable model, parasite load, nodular lesions, and positive skin microscopy were significantly associated with positive xenodiagnosis. Blood parasite load was the strongest predictor for VL. Compared to VL, nodular PKDL was more likely and macular PKDL less likely to result in positive xenodiagnosis, but neither difference reached statistical significance. Conclusions Nodular and macular PKDL, and VL, can be infectious to sand flies. Active PKDL case detection and prompt treatment should be instituted and maintained as an integral part of VL control and elimination programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]