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The need to select mediators from a high dimensional data source, such as neuroimaging data and genetic data, arises in much scientific research. In this work, we formulate a multiple-hypothesis testing framework for mediator selection from a high-dimensional candidate set, and propose a method, which extends the recent development in false discovery rate (FDR)-controlled variable selection with knockoff to select mediators with FDR control. We show that the proposed method and algorithm achieved finite sample FDR control. We present extensive simulation results to demonstrate the power and finite sample performance compared with the existing method. Lastly, we demonstrate the method for analyzing the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, in which the proposed method selects several resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging connectivity markers as mediators for the relationship between adverse childhood events and the crystallized composite score in the NIH toolbox. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proteogenomics refers to the integrated analysis of the genome and proteome that leverages mass-spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics data to improve genome annotations, understand gene expression control through proteoforms and find sequence variants to develop novel insights for disease classification and therapeutic strategies. However, proteogenomic studies often suffer from reduced sensitivity and specificity due to inflated database size. To control the error rates, proteogenomics depends on the target-decoy search strategy, the de-facto method for false discovery rate (FDR) estimation in proteomics. The proteogenomic databases constructed from three- or six-frame nucleotide database translation not only increase the search space and compute-time but also violate the equivalence of target and decoy databases. These searches result in poorer separation between target and decoy scores, leading to stringent FDR thresholds. Understanding these factors and applying modified strategies such as two-pass database search or peptide-class-specific FDR can result in a better interpretation of MS data without introducing additional statistical biases. Based on these considerations, a user can interpret the proteogenomics results appropriately and control false positives and negatives in a more informed manner. In this review, first, we briefly discuss the proteogenomic workflows and limitations in database construction, followed by various considerations that can influence potential novel discoveries in a proteogenomic study. We conclude with suggestions to counter these challenges for better proteogenomic data interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple testing problems (MTPs) are a staple of modern statistical analysis. The fundamental objective of MTPs is to reject as many false null hypotheses as possible (that is, maximize some notion of power), subject to controlling an overall measure of false discovery, like family‐wise error rate (FWER) or false discovery rate (FDR). In this paper we provide generalizations to MTPs of the optimal Neyman‐Pearson test for a single hypothesis. We show that for simple hypotheses, for both FWER and FDR and relevant notions of power, finding the optimal multiple testing procedure can be formulated as infinite dimensional binary programs and can in principle be solved for any number of hypotheses. We also characterize maximin rules for complex alternatives, and demonstrate that such rules can be found in practice, leading to improved practical procedures compared to existing alternatives that guarantee strong error control on the entire parameter space. We demonstrate the usefulness of these novel rules for identifying which studies contain signal in numerical experiments as well as in application to clinical trials with multiple studies. In various settings, the increase in power from using optimal and maximin procedures can range from 15% to more than 100%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

E‐values have gained attention as potential alternatives to p‐values as measures of uncertainty, significance and evidence. In brief, e‐values are realized by random variables with expectation at most one under the null; examples include betting scores, (point null) Bayes factors, likelihood ratios and stopped supermartingales. We design a natural analogue of the Benjamini‐Hochberg (BH) procedure for false discovery rate (FDR) control that utilizes e‐values, called the e‐BH procedure, and compare it with the standard procedure for p‐values. One of our central results is that, unlike the usual BH procedure, the e‐BH procedure controls the FDR at the desired level—with no correction—for any dependence structure between the e‐values. We illustrate that the new procedure is convenient in various settings of complicated dependence, structured and post‐selection hypotheses, and multi‐armed bandit problems. Moreover, the BH procedure is a special case of the e‐BH procedure through calibration between p‐values and e‐values. Overall, the e‐BH procedure is a novel, powerful and general tool for multiple testing under dependence, that is complementary to the BH procedure, each being an appropriate choice in different applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last decade, GWAS meta-analyses have used a strict P-value threshold of 5 ×10-8 to classify associations as significant. Here, we use our current understanding of frequently studied traits including lipid levels, height, and BMI to revisit this genome-wide significance threshold. We compare the performance of studies using the P =5× 10-8 threshold in terms of true and false positive rate to other multiple testing strategies: (1) less stringent P-value thresholds, (2) controlling the FDR with the Benjamini-Hochberg and Benjamini-Yekutieli procedure, and (3) controlling the Bayesian FDR with posterior probabilities. We applied these procedures to re-analyze results from the Global Lipids and GIANT GWAS meta-analysis consortia and supported them with extensive simulation that mimics the empirical data. We observe in simulated studies with sample sizes ~20,000 and >120,000 that relaxing the P-value threshold to 5 ×10-7 increased discovery at the cost of 18% and 8% of additional loci being false positive results, respectively. FDR and Bayesian FDR are well controlled for both sample sizes with a few exceptions that disappear under a less stringent definition of true positives and the two approaches yield similar results. Our work quantifies the value of using a relaxed P-value threshold in large studies to increase their true positive discovery but also show the excess false positive rates due to such actions in modest-sized studies. These results may guide investigators considering different thresholds in replication studies and downstream work such as gene-set enrichment or pathway analysis. Finally, we demonstrate the viability of FDR-controlling procedures in GWAS [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The false discovery rate (FDR) measures the proportion of false discoveries among a set of hypothesis tests called significant. This quantity is typically estimated based on p-values or test statistics. In some scenarios, there is additional information available that may be used to more accurately estimate the FDR. We develop a new framework for formulating and estimating FDRs and q-values when an additional piece of information, which we call an "informative variable", is available. For a given test, the informative variable provides information about the prior probability a null hypothesis is true or the power of that particular test. The FDR is then treated as a function of this informative variable. We consider two applications in genomics. Our first application is a genetics of gene expression (eQTL) experiment in yeast where every genetic marker and gene expression trait pair are tested for associations. The informative variable in this case is the distance between each genetic marker and gene. Our second application is to detect differentially expressed genes in an RNA-seq study carried out in mice. The informative variable in this study is the per-gene read depth. The framework we develop is quite general, and it should be useful in a broad range of scientific applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small non‐coding RNAs that function as regulators of gene expression. In recent years, there has been a tremendous interest among researchers to investigate the role of miRNAs in normal as well as in disease processes. To investigate the role of miRNAs in oral cancer, we analyse expression levels of miRNAs to identify miRNAs with statistically significant differential expression in cancer tissues. In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model of miRNA expression data. Compelling evidence has demonstrated that the transcription process of miRNAs in the human genome is a latent process instrumental for the observed expression levels. We take into account positional clustering of the miRNAs in the analysis and model the latent transcription phenomenon nonparametrically by an appropriate Gaussian process. For the purpose of testing, we employ a novel Bayesian multiple testing method where we mainly focus on utilizing the dependence structure between the hypotheses for better results, while also ensuring optimality in many respects. Indeed, our non‐marginal method yielded results in accordance with the underlying scientific knowledge which are found to be missed by the very popular Benjamini–Hochberg method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The ability of finding complex associations in large omics datasets, assessing their significance, and prioritizing them according to their strength can be of great help in the data exploration phase. Mutual information-based measures of association are particularly promising, in particular after the recent introduction of the TICe and MICe estimators, which combine computational efficiency with superior bias/variance properties. An open-source software implementation of these two measures providing a complete procedure to test their significance would be extremely useful. Findings: Here, we present MICtools, a comprehensive and effective pipeline that combines TICe and MICe into a multistep procedure that allows the identification of relationships of various degrees of complexity. MICtools calculates their strength assessing statistical significance using a permutation-based strategy. The performances of the proposed approach are assessed by an extensive investigation in synthetic datasets and an example of a potential application on a metagenomic dataset is also illustrated. Conclusions: We show that MICtools, combining TICe and MICe, is able to highlight associations that would not be captured by conventional strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Having identified that the lack of replicability of results in earlier phases of clinical medical research stems largely from unattended selective inference, we offer a new hierarchical weighted false discovery rate controlling testing procedure alongside the single-level weighted procedure. These address the special structure of clinical research, where the comparisons of treatments involve both primary and secondary endpoints, by assigning weights that reflect the relative importance of the endpoints in the error being controlled. In the hierarchical method, the primary endpoints and a properly weighted intersection hypothesis that represents all secondary endpoints are tested. Should the intersection hypothesis be among the rejected, individual secondary endpoints are tested. We identify configurations where each of the two procedures has the advantage. Both offer higher power than competing hierarchical (gatekeeper) familywise error-rate controlling procedures being used for drug approval. By their design, the advantage of the proposed methods is the increased power to discover effects on secondary endpoints, without giving up the rigor of addressing their multiplicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rise of both the number and the complexity of traits of interest, control of the false discovery rate (FDR) in genetic association studies has become an increasingly appealing and accepted target for multiple comparison adjustment. While a number of robust FDR-controlling strategies exist, the nature of this error rate is intimately tied to the precise way in which discoveries are counted, and the performance of FDR-controlling procedures is satisfactory only if there is a one-to-one correspondence between what scientists describe as unique discoveries and the number of rejected hypotheses. The presence of linkage disequilibrium between markers in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) often leads researchers to consider the signal associated to multiple neighboring SNPs as indicating the existence of a single genomic locus with possible influence on the phenotype. This a posteriori aggregation of rejected hypotheses results in inflation of the relevant FDR. We propose a novel approach to FDR control that is based on prescreening to identify the level of resolution of distinct hypotheses. We show how FDR-controlling strategies can be adapted to account for this initial selection both with theoretical results and simulations that mimic the dependence structure to be expected in GWAS. We demonstrate that our approach is versatile and useful when the data are analyzed using both tests based on single markers and multiple regression. We provide an R package that allows practitioners to apply our procedure on standard GWAS format data, and illustrate its performance on lipid traits in the North Finland Birth Cohort 66 cohort study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of methodological breakthroughs and the availability of an increasing amount of whole-genome sequence data, horizontal transfers (HTs) in eukaryotes have received much attention recently. Contrary to similar analyses in prokaryotes, most studies in eukaryotes usually investigate particular sequences corresponding to transposable elements (TEs), neglecting the other components of the genome. We present a new methodological framework for the genome-wide detection of all putative horizontally transferred sequences between two species that requires no prior knowledge of the transferred sequences. This method provides a broader picture of HTs in eukaryotes by fully exploiting complete-genome sequence data. In contrast to previous genome-wide approaches, we used a well-defined statistical framework to control for the number of false positives in the results, and we propose two new validation procedures to control for confounding factors. The first validation procedure relies on a comparative analysis with other species of the phylogeny to validate HTs for the nonrepeated sequences detected, whereas the second one built upon the study of the dynamics of the detected TEs. We applied our method to two closely related Drosophila species, Drosophila melanogaster and D. simulans, in which we discovered 10 new HTs in addition to all the HTs previously detected in different studies, which underscores our method's high sensitivity and specificity. Our results favor the hypothesis of multiple independent HTs of TEs while unraveling a small portion of the network of HTs in the Drosophila phylogeny. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Space–time modeling of small area data is often used in epidemiology for mapping chronic disease rates and by government statistical agencies for producing local estimates of, for example, unemployment or crime rates. Although there is typically a general temporal trend, which affects all areas similarly, abrupt changes may occur in a particular area, e.g. due to emergence of localized predictors/risk factor(s) or impact of a new policy. Detection of areas with “unusual” temporal patterns is therefore important as a screening tool for further investigations. In this paper, we propose BaySTDetect, a novel detection method for short-time series of small area data using Bayesian model choice between two competing space–time models. The first model is a multiplicative decomposition of the area effect and the temporal effect, assuming one common temporal pattern across the whole study region. The second model estimates the time trends independently for each area. For each area, the posterior probability of belonging to the common trend model is calculated, which is then used to classify the local time trend as unusual or not. Crucial to any detection method, we provide a Bayesian estimate of the false discovery rate (FDR). A comprehensive simulation study has demonstrated the consistent good performance of BaySTDetect in detecting various realistic departure patterns in addition to estimating well the FDR. The proposed method is applied retrospectively to mortality data on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England and Wales between 1990 and 1997 (a) to test a hypothesis that a government policy increased the diagnosis of COPD and (b) to perform surveillance. While results showed no evidence supporting the hypothesis regarding the policy, an identified unusual district (Tower Hamlets in inner London) was later recognized to have higher than national rates of hospital readmission and mortality due to COPD by the National Health Service, which initiated various local enhanced services to tackle the problem. Our method would have led to an early detection of this local health issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss the identification of genes that are associated with an outcome in RNA sequencing and other sequence-based comparative genomic experiments. RNA-sequencing data take the form of counts, so models based on the Gaussian distribution are unsuitable. Moreover, normalization is challenging because different sequencing experiments may generate quite different total numbers of reads. To overcome these difficulties, we use a log-linear model with a new approach to normalization. We derive a novel procedure to estimate the false discovery rate (FDR). Our method can be applied to data with quantitative, two-class, or multiple-class outcomes, and the computation is fast even for large data sets. We study the accuracy of our approaches for significance calculation and FDR estimation, and we demonstrate that our method has potential advantages over existing methods that are based on a Poisson or negative binomial model. In summary, this work provides a pipeline for the significance analysis of sequencing data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

An incredible amount of data is generated in the course of a functional neuroimaging experiment. The quantity of data gives us improved temporal and spatial resolution with which to evaluate our results. It also creates a staggering multiple testing problem. A number of methods have been created that address the multiple testing problem in neuroimaging in a principled fashion. These methods place limits on either the familywise error rate (FWER) or the false discovery rate (FDR) of the results. These principled approaches are well established in the literature and are known to properly limit the amount of false positives across the whole brain. However, a minority of papers are still published every month using methods that are improperly corrected for the number of tests conducted. These latter methods place limits on the voxelwise probability of a false positive and yield no information on the global rate of false positives in the results. In this commentary, we argue in favor of a principled approach to the multiple testing problem—one that places appropriate limits on the rate of false positives across the whole brain gives readers the information they need to properly evaluate the results. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Given a set of microarray data, the problem is to detect differentially expressed genes, using a false discovery rate (FDR) criterion. As opposed to common procedures in the literature, we do not base the selection criterion on statistical significance only, but also on the effect size. Therefore, we select only those genes that are significantly more differentially expressed than some f-fold (e.g., f= 2). This corresponds to use of an interval null domain for the effect size. Based on a simple error model, we discuss a naive estimator for the FDR, interpreted as the probability that the parameter of interest lies in the null-domain (e.g., ) given that the test statistic exceeds a threshold. We improve the naive estimator by using deconvolution. That is, the density of the parameter of interest is recovered from the data. We study performance of the methods using simulations and real data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]