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We estimated sex- and age-specific apparent survival of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) born at Tugidak Island, Alaska, from 2000 to 2007 using mark-recapture models and photographs of ventral pelage markings to identify individuals. Estimates of annual apparent survival (1 - (mortality + emigration)) of females were from 0.05 to 0.10 higher than those of males and were 0.820 for weaning (~1 month) to 1 year, 0.865 for 1-3 years, and 0.929 at 3-7 years. Annual survival of males was 0.717, 0.782, and 0.879 for the same ages. Highest mortality occurred preweaning, with cumulative mortality to 4 weeks of age of 0.259, indicating this is the most vulnerable period for Tugidak harbor seals. Estimates of survival, not biased by misidentification, required that an individual had at least 2 good-quality, matching photographs in the photograph library. The number of photographs available for matching improved resighting probabilities from 0.43 for seals with 2 photographs to 0.69 for seals with 8 photographs, but this heterogeneity did not affect survival estimates. Survival estimates based on photograph-identification data were nearly identical to those based on resightings of flipper-tagged seals using mark-recapture models with a preliminary double-tag-loss estimate of 2.5% per year. Photograph identification of natural pelage markings provides a viable method for estimating vital rates of harbor seals even at large haul-outs (> 1,000 animals) and may be useful for populations of conservation concern that require low disturbance of animals or where capturing sufficient numbers of seals for artificial marking is not feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring the dynamics and status of populations of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) requires efficient methods for estimating population parameters from mark--resight data. We used a test set of photographs from 182 individuals identified by flipper tags, scars, or unique pelage markings to test whether individuals could be identified accurately by their ventral pelage markings; to document efficiency and misidentification error rate associated with a computer-assisted photograph-matching system; and to test for bias in mark-recapture survival estimates resulting from misidentification errors. Pelage patterns of seals that were not of dark-intermediate or intermediate color phase were unique and stable from birth until 6-8 years, and from year to year as adults. The computer-assisted system greatly improved efficiency of photograph matching: 93.3% of good photographs and 69.9% of all photographs ranked 1st, and 95.2% of good photographs ranked in the top 0.3% of the ordered list for visual checking. Additional visual matching error averaged <3.0% for good photographs, and overall misidentification error rate was low at 1.8%, due to the availability of multiple photographs for matching. Inclusion of poor-quality photographs reduced ranking success by ~20% and increased additional visual matching error up to 20%. Bias in survival estimates was -7.0% for a misidentification rate of 8.8%, but was ≤1.1% for misidentification rates of <2.7%, achieved by restricting data to only good photos. Our study suggests that estimation of misidentification error rate, inclusion of only high-quality photographs, or use of models that account for misidentification error, are required to prevent bias in mark-recapture survival estimates when using data from natural-marking studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the CYD14 and CYD15 Phase 3 trials of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine, estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) occurring between months 13 and 25 was 56.5% and 60.8%, respectively.Methods: Neutralizing antibody titers to the 4 dengue serotypes in the CYD-TDV vaccine insert were measured at month 13 in a randomly sampled immunogenicity subcohort and in all VCD cases through month 25 (2848 vaccine, 1574 placebo) and studied for their association with VCD and with the level of VE to prevent VCD.Results: For each trial and serotype, vaccinees with higher month 13 titer to the serotype had significantly lower risk of VCD with that serotype (hazard ratios, 0.19-0.43 per 10-fold increase). Moreover, for each trial, vaccinees with higher month 13 average titer to the 4 serotypes had significantly higher VE against VCD of any serotype (P < .001).Conclusions: Neutralizing antibody titers postdose 3 correlate with CYD-TDV VE to prevent dengue. High titers associate with high VE for all serotypes, baseline serostatus groups, age groups, and both trials. However, lowest titers do not fully correspond to zero VE, indicating that other factors influence VE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]