Search

As biological invasions continue to increase globally, eradication programs have been undertaken at significant cost, often without consideration of relevant ecological theory. Theoretical fisheries models have shown that harvest can actually increase the equilibrium size of a population, and uncontrolled studies and anecdotal reports have documented population increases in response to invasive species removal (akin to fisheries harvest). Both findings may be driven by high levels of juvenile survival associated with low adult abundance, often referred to as overcompensation. Here we show that in a coastal marine ecosystem, an eradication program resulted in stage-specific overcompensation and a 30-fold, single-year increase in the population of an introduced predator. Data collected concurrently from four adjacent regional bays without eradication efforts showed no similar population increase, indicating a local and not a regional increase. Specifically, the eradication program had inadvertently reduced the control of recruitment by adults via cannibalism, thereby facilitating the population explosion. Mesocosm experiments confirmed that adult cannibalism of recruits was size-dependent and could control recruitment. Genomic data show substantial isolation of this population and implicate internal population dynamics for the increase, rather than recruitment from other locations. More broadly, this controlled experimental demonstration of stage-specific overcompensation in an aquatic system provides an important cautionary message for eradication efforts of species with limited connectivity and similar life histories.

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict.

Biological invasions are rapidly producing planet-wide changes in biodiversity and ecosystem function. In coastal waters of the U.S., >500 invaders have become established, and new introductions continue at an increasing rate. Although most species have little impact on native communities, some initially benign introductions may occasionally turn into damaging invasions, although such introductions are rarely documented. Here, I demonstrate that a recently introduced crab has resulted in the rapid spread and increase of an introduced bivalve that had been rare in the system for nearly 50 yr. This increase has occurred through the positive indirect effects of predation by the introduced crab on native bivalves. I used field and laboratory experiments to show that the mechanism is size-specific predation interacting with the different reproductive life histories of the native (protandrous hermaphrodite) and the introduced (dioecious) bivalves. These results suggest that positive interactions among the hundreds of introduced species that are accumulating in coastal systems could result in the rapid transformation of previously benign introductions into aggressively expanding invasions. Even if future management efforts reduce the number of new introductions, given the large number of species already present, there is a high potential for positive interactions to produce many future management problems. Given that invasional meltdown is now being documented in natural systems, I suggest that coastal systems may be closer to this threshold than currently believed.