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Plant protection drones are fast and efficient application machines that are characterised by high application efficiency and no damage to crops. They are particularly suitable for small areas of farmland and mountainous terrain in regions such as Asia and are currently the dominant insecticide application technology in China. The presence of wind is a prerequisite for the spread and dissemination of airborne diseases and it can directly influence the distance and height of ascent of pathogenic spores. This paper investigates the effect of downwash airflow generated by the flight altitude of a plant protection drone on the horizontal distribution, vertical distribution and ground distribution of powdery mildew spores in wheat. Monitoring the changing dynamics of airborne powdery mildew conidia using spore traps. The test results show that: the number of powdery mildew pathogenic spores is related to various factors such as weather, relative humidity and wind speed; the release of spores is greatly influenced by airflow disturbances but has little effect at the early stages of sporulation; the disease is caused by the accumulation process of pathogenic spores and in the control of powdery mildew in wheat, preventive spraying should be carried out within 2–3 days of the germination of pathogenic spores. The study lays the foundation for further in-depth research on the spread of powdery mildew spores and improved pest control, and provides a basis for scientific and rational spraying and control by agricultural drones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the beginning of the rapidly spreading COVID-19 pandemic, several mutations have occurred in the genetic sequence of the virus, resulting in emerging different variants of concern. These variants vary in transmissibility, severity of infections, and mortality rate. Designing models that are capable of predicting the future behavior of these variants in the societies can help decision makers and the healthcare system to design efficient health policies, and to be prepared with the sufficient medical devices and an adequate number of personnel to fight against this virus and the similar ones. Among variants of COVID-19, Alpha and Delta variants differ noticeably in the virus structures. In this paper, we study these variants in the geographical regions with different size, population densities, and social life styles. These regions include the country of Iran, the continent of Asia, and the whole world. We propose four deep learning models based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and examine their predictive power in forecasting the number of infections and deaths for the next three, next five, and next seven days in each variant. These models include Encoder Decoder LSTM (ED-LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM), Convolutional LSTM (Conv-LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). Performance of these models in predictions are evaluated using the root mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error. Then, the Friedman test is applied to find the leading model for predictions in all conditions. The results show that ED-LSTM is generally the leading model for predicting the number of infections and deaths for both variants of Alpha and Delta, with the ability to forecast long time intervals ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inference of admixture proportions is a classical statistical problem in population genetics. Standard methods implicitly assume that both parents of an individual have the same admixture fraction. However, this is rarely the case in real data. In this paper we show that the distribution of admixture tract lengths in a genome contains information about the admixture proportions of the ancestors of an individual. We develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework for estimating the admixture proportions of the immediate ancestors of an individual, i.e. a type of decomposition of an individual's admixture proportions into further subsets of ancestral proportions in the ancestors. Based on a genealogical model for admixture tracts, we develop an efficient algorithm for computing the sampling probability of the genome from a single individual, as a function of the admixture proportions of the ancestors of this individual. This allows us to perform probabilistic inference of admixture proportions of ancestors only using the genome of an extant individual. We perform extensive simulations to quantify the error in the estimation of ancestral admixture proportions under various conditions. To illustrate the utility of the method, we apply it to real genetic data. Author summary: Ancestry inference is an important problem in genetics and is used commercially by a number of companies affecting millions of consumers of genetic ancestry tests. In this paper, we show that it is possible, not only to estimate the ancestry fractions of an individual, but also, with some uncertainty, to estimate the ancestry fractions of an individual's recent ancestors. For example, if an individual traces his/her ancestry 50% to Asia and 50% to Europe, it is possible to distinguish between the individual having two parents that each are 50:50 composites of Asian and European ancestry, or one parent from Asia and one from Europe. It is likewise also possible to make inferences about grandparents. We present a computationally efficient method for making such inferences called PedMix. PedMix is based on a probabilistic model for the descendant and the recent ancestors. PedMix infers admixture proportions of recent ancestors (parents, grandparents or even great grandparents) using whole-genome genetic variation data from a focal individual. Results on both simulated and real data show that PedMix performs reasonably well in most scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taenia solium is an important cause of acquired epilepsy worldwide and remains endemic in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Transmission of this parasite is still poorly understood despite the design of infection experiments to improve our knowledge of the disease, with estimates for critical epidemiological parameters, such as the probability of human-to-pig infection after exposure to eggs, still lacking. In this paper, a systematic review was carried out and eight pig infection experiments were analyzed to describe the probability of developing cysts. These experiments included different pathways of inoculation: with ingestion of proglottids, eggs, and beetles that ingested eggs, and direct injection of activated oncospheres into the carotid artery. In these experiments, different infective doses were used, and the numbers of viable and degenerated cysts in the body and brain of each pig were registered. Five alternative dose-response models (exponential, logistic, log-logistic, and exact and approximate beta-Poisson) were assessed for their accuracy in describing the observed probabilities of cyst development as a function of the inoculation dose. Dose-response models were developed separately for the presence of three types of cysts (any, viable only, and cysts in the brain) and considered for each of the four inoculation methods ("Proglottids", "Eggs", "Beetles" and "Carotid"). The exact beta-Poisson model best fit the data for the three types of cysts and all relevant exposure pathways. However, observations for some exposure pathways were too scarce to reliably define a dose-response curve with any model. A wide enough range of doses and sufficient sample sizes was only found for the "Eggs" pathway and a merged "Oral" pathway combining the "Proglottids", "Eggs" and "Beetles" pathways. Estimated parameter values from this model suggest that a low infective dose is sufficient to result in a 50% probability for the development of any cyst or for viable cyst infections. Although this is a preliminary model reliant on a limited dataset, the parameters described in this manuscript should contribute to the design of future experimental infections related to T. solium transmission, as well as the parameterization of simulation models of transmission aimed at informing control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to demonstrate the impact of coal enterprises’ vertical integration on the performance of innovation corporate social responsibility (ICSR) and to elaborate its specific transmission path through financing structure and market power. This paper takes the data of A-share listed coal company from 2008 to 2017 as samples, uses input-output table method to measure the degree of vertical integration, and explores the relationship between the four factors through multiple linear regression and Bootstrap method. We found that: (1) the vertical integration of coal enterprises has positive incentives for the promotion of ICSR. (2) Financing structure and market power play a chain intermediary role in this process of incentive. (3) In areas with high marketization process, vertical integration has more significant incentive effect on ICSR. The paper extends the research on the relationship between vertical integration and innovation, which provides a reference for the improvement of China’s supply-side reform and corporate social responsibility (CSR) fulfillment policy. It is helpful to promote the sustainable development of the coal industry, stimulate the innovation vitality of enterprises, and improve the fulfillment of CSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we aim to establish a mathematical model to design a maximizing social welfare intervention mechanism of healthcare service goods in China. The intervention mechanism is helpful to facilitate the adoption of the healthcare service goods. We consider a research problem that regulates the supply chain system for healthcare service goods by an intervention mechanism, and two intervention strategies composed of demand-growth strategy and subsidy strategy are used to the combination of intervention mechanism. Then this paper presents a new method based on fuzzy set and bilevel programming to design the intervention mechanism. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we conduct a case study for Wudang personalized health package and verify our model by the specific result analysis, the result indicates that our joint intervention mechanism is helpful to achieve the target and increase social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Up to 1.45 billion people currently suffer from soil transmitted helminth infection, with the largest burden occurring in Africa and Asia. Safe and cost effective deworming treatment exists, but there is a debate about mass distribution of this treatment in high prevalence settings. While the World Health Organization recommends mass administration of anthelmintic drugs for preschool and school-aged children in high (>20%) prevalence settings, and several long run follow up studies of an influential trial have suggested large benefits that persist over time, recent systematic reviews have called this recommendation into question. Methods and findings: This paper analyzes the long-term impact of a cluster-randomized trial in eastern Uganda that provided mass deworming treatment to preschool aged children from 2000 to 2003 on the numeracy and literacy skills of children and young adults living in those villages in 2010-2015. This study uses numeracy and literacy data collected seven to twelve years after the end of the deworming trial in a randomly selected subset of communities from the original trial, by an education-focused survey that had no relationship to the deworming study. Building on an earlier working paper which used data from 2010 and 2011 survey rounds, this paper uses an additional four years of numeracy and literacy data (2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015). Aggregating data from all survey rounds, the difference between numeracy scores in treatment versus control communities is 0.07 standard deviations (SD) (95% CI -0.10, 0.24, p = 0.40), the difference in literacy scores is 0.05 SD (95% CI -0.16, 0.27, p = 0.62), and the difference in total scores is 0.07 SD (95% CI -0.11, 0.25, p = 0.44). There are significant differences in program impact by gender, with numeracy and literacy differentially positively affected for girls, and by age, with treatment effects larger for the primary school aged subsample. There are also significant treatment interactions for those living in households with more treatment-eligible children. There is no evidence of differential treatment effects on age at program eligibility or number of years of program eligibility. Conclusions: Mass deworming of preschool aged children in high prevalence communities in Uganda resulted in no statistically significant gains in numeracy or literacy 7-12 years after program completion. Point estimates were positive but imprecise; the study lacked sufficient power to rule out substantial positive effects or more modest negative effects. However, there is suggestive evidence that deworming was relatively more beneficial for girls, primary school aged children, and children living in households with other treated children. Research approval: As this analysis was conducted on secondary data which is publicly available, no research approval was sought or received. All individual records were anonymized by the data provider prior to public release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russell's vipers (RVs) envenoming is an important public health issue in South-East Asia. Disseminated intravascular coagulopathy, systemic bleeding, hemolysis, and acute renal injury are obvious problems that develop in most cases, and neuromuscular junction blocks are an additional problem caused by western RV snakebite. The complex presentations usually are an obstacle to early diagnosis and antivenom administration. Here, we tried to produce highly specific antibodies in goose yolks for use in a paper-based microfluidic diagnostic kit, immunochromatographic test of viper (ICT-Viper), to distinguish RVs from other vipers and even cobra snakebite in Asia. We used indirect ELISA to monitor specific goose IgY production and western blotting to illustrate the interaction of avian or mammal antibody with venom proteins. The ICT-Viper was tested not only in prepared samples but also in stored patient serum to demonstrate its preliminary efficacy. The results revealed that specific anti-Daboia russelii IgY could be raised in goose eggs effectively without inducing adverse effects. When it was collocated with horse anti-Daboia siamensis antibody, which broadly reacted with most of the venom proteins of both types of Russell's viper, the false cross-reactivity was reduced, and the test showed good performance. The limit of detection was reduced to 10 ng/ml in vitro, and the test showed good detection ability in clinical snake envenoming case samples. The ICT-Viper performed well and could be combined with a cobra venom detection kit (ICT-Cobra) to create a multiple detection strip (ICT-VC), which broadens its applications while maintaining its detection ability for snake envenomation identification. Nonetheless, the use of the ICT-Viper in the South-East Asia region is pending additional laboratory and field investigations and regional collaboration. We believe that the development of this practical diagnostic tool marks the beginning of positive efforts to face the global snakebite issue. Author summary: For a long time, many scientists have made efforts to develop more effective antivenoms or to expand the limits of existing antivenoms. Such endeavors are challenging but worth the effort in the long run. However, to use precious antivenom more effectively, a snake species discrimination tool might be helpful for treatment by ensuring accurate antivenom usage and dosage. In this study, we revealed that avian IgY might be an economical alternative for collocation with the equine F(ab')2 fragment in the development of a diagnostic device with improved performance. Only a few avian eggs (about 10–15) would be necessary to produce 10,000 kits. Immunochromatographic test (ICT) is a simple, easy, fast, and low-cost point-of-care lateral flow assay device, and especially adapted to perform in resource-deficient areas. Such an antibody collocation strategy might be beneficial to overcome the urgent need for snakebite diagnosis as soon as possible. More cooperative investigations across Asia continent might be initiated in the future to face the challenge of snakebites together. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Japanese encephalitis virus genotype Ib (JEV GIb) has replaced JEV GIII as the dominant genotype in endemic areas of Asia, no JEV GIb has been isolated from JE cases and natural mosquitoes at the same time in an outbreak of JE. In this study, we conducted virological and molecular biological laboratory tests on JE case samples (serum/cerebrospinal fluid) and locally collected mosquito samples from the 2018 JE outbreak in Ningxia, China. The result of JEV IgM antibody detection showed that 96% (67/70) of the suspected cases were laboratory-confirmed JE cases. Of the mosquitoes collected from local environments, 70% (17400/24900) were Culex tritaeniorhynchus of which 4.6% (16 /348 of the pools tested) were positive for JEV, other mosquitoes were negative. JEVs isolated from both the human cases and C. tritaeniorhynchus specimens belong to JEV GIb and are in the same evolutionary clade according to molecular evolution analyses. JEV GIb was detected simultaneously from specimens of JE cases and mosquito samples collected in nature in this study, suggesting that the JE outbreak that occurred in Ningxia in 2018 was due to infection of JEV GIb. Author summary: Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is recognized as an important encephalitis pathogen all over the world. Its genotype is divided into GI-V. In recent years, JEV GIb (a temperate genotype) has gradually replaced GIII as the prevalent strain in JE endemic areas. Although JEV GIb originated from tropical Asia along with JEV GIa, it has rapidly spread for its advantages in wintering and infecting vectors. Although there have been epidemics caused by JEV GI and GIII, there have been no reports of a JE outbreak caused by JEV GIb alone in northeastern Asia. However, a JE outbreak occurred in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in northern China in summer 2018 which was the first outbreak in Ningxia in recent decades. This paper presents a series of laboratory and field studies of this outbreak. The strain isolated from JE cases as well as JEV detected in Culex tritaeniorhynchus collected from local areas in nature all belonged to JEV GIb and were in the same evolutionary clade. This is the first report of a JE outbreak caused by JEV GIb infection in northeastern Asia (latitude 35 ° 14'– 39 ° 23' N, longitude 104 ° 17'– 107 ° 39' E), which used to be a low endemic area of JEV GIII. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using abandoned gas wells as geothermal resources for energy production is an effective way to extract geothermal energy from geological formations. These abandoned wells have the potential to significantly contribute in the rising global demand for energy without requiring the land disruption resulting from deep drilling or digging, processes necessary for energy extraction from geological formations via more traditional methods. In this paper, a method to extract geothermal energy from abandoned gas wells is proposed. The method offers an efficient, economical, and environmentally-conscious way to generate electricity. A mathematical model of a thermal and hydraulic coupling process is constructed, and a 3D numerical model is generated to study the process of geothermal energy extraction by retrofitting an abandoned gas reservoir into a geothermal reservoir. Using the model, heat extraction and fluid flow are analyzed over a period of 50 years. The heat production, electricity generation, and thermal recovery over the lifetime of the reservoir indicate that a commercially viable geothermal dual well system can produce geothermal energy effectively. Dual-well systems contain at least one injection well and one production well. They are composed of a two-way flow system in which the fluid flows into the reservoir via an injection well and returns from the production well having absorbed thermal energy from the surrounding rocks. Sensitivity analysis of the main parameters controlling the average outlet temperature of the fluid from the sedimentary geothermal system reveals that abandoned gas wells are a suitable source of geothermal energy. This energy can be harvested via a method whose use of reservoir fluids differs from that of the traditional method of closed-loop circulation via a borehole heat exchanger. Here, it is demonstrated that abandoned oil and gas fields can be repurposed to be geothermal energy sources that provide low-cost electricity and are economically sustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to describe the prevalent forms of intimate partner violence (IPV), and the factors associated with IPV among women and men living in the two migrant communities of Baglung district, Nepal. 357 adult women and men were enrolled following a family model, interviewing young married women with daughter-in-law status in the home, their husbands, and mothers-in-law and fathers-in-laws using an electronic questionnaire. Random effects regression modelling compared men and women, as well as young married women with daughter-in-law status and older women with mothers-in-law with status. 28.6% of women had ever experienced physical and/or sexual violence by an intimate partner compared to 18.2% of men ever perpetrated these forms of violence against their wives. Being older, male controlling behaviour and poor relations with husband increased women’s IPV in their lifetime while perceptions that the mother-in-law is kind were protective. Being ashamed of being unemployed and childhood trauma were associated with men perpetrating IPV in their lifetime. Borrowing money or food increased young married women’s lifetime IPV risk while mother-in-law cruelty and male control increased older married women’s lifetime IPV exposure. Factors associated with IPV in the past year among men were being younger, job seeking, experiences of childhood trauma and depression exposure among men while difficulty accessing money for emergencies, holding inequitable gender attitudes, and depression was associated with women’s increased IPV exposure. Unemployment stress, holding inequitable gender attitudes and mother-in-law kindness were associated with young women’s increased IPV risk and hunger, mother-in-law cruelty and depression with older women’s IPV risk. There is a need to critically challenge harmful social and gender norms by using approaches that are sensitive to young married women’s position and unequal gender relations in the family. IPV prevention interventions need to employ a holistic approach that combines changing social and gender norms and improving socioeconomic conditions of women living in migrant communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Targeted environmental and ecosystem management remain crucial in control of dengue. However, providing detailed environmental information on a large scale to effectively target dengue control efforts remains a challenge. An important piece of such information is the extent of the presence of potential dengue vector breeding sites, which consist primarily of open containers such as ceramic jars, buckets, old tires, and flowerpots. In this paper we present the design and implementation of a pipeline to detect outdoor open containers which constitute potential dengue vector breeding sites from geotagged images and to create highly detailed container density maps at unprecedented scale. We implement the approach using Google Street View images which have the advantage of broad coverage and of often being two to three years old which allows correlation analyses of container counts against historical data from manual surveys. Containers comprising eight of the most common breeding sites are detected in the images using convolutional neural network transfer learning. Over a test set of images the object recognition algorithm has an accuracy of 0.91 in terms of F-score. Container density counts are generated and displayed on a decision support dashboard. Analyses of the approach are carried out over three provinces in Thailand. The container counts obtained agree well with container counts from available manual surveys. Multi-variate linear regression relating densities of the eight container types to larval survey data shows good prediction of larval index values with an R-squared of 0.674. To delineate conditions under which the container density counts are indicative of larval counts, a number of factors affecting correlation with larval survey data are analyzed. We conclude that creation of container density maps from geotagged images is a promising approach to providing detailed risk maps at large scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Bangladesh Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) Elimination Programme has made significant progress in interrupting transmission through mass drug administration (MDA) and has now focussed its efforts on scaling up managing morbidity and preventing disability (MMDP) activities to deliver the minimum package of care to people affected by LF clinical conditions. This paper highlights the Bangladesh LF Programme’s success in conducting a large-scale cross-sectional survey to determine the number of people affected by lymphoedema and hydrocoele, which enabled clinical risk maps to be developed for targeted interventions across the 34 endemic districts (19 high endemic; 15 low endemic). Methodology/Principal findings: In the 19 high endemic districts, 8,145 community clinic staff were trained to identify and report patients in their catchment area. In the 15 low endemic districts, a team of 10 trained field assistants conducted active case finding with cases reported via a SMS mHealth tool. Disease burden and prevalence maps were developed, with morbidity hotspots identified at sub-district level based on a combination of the highest prevalence rates per 100,000 and case-density rates per square kilometre (km2). The relationship between morbidity and baseline microfilaria (mf) prevalence was also examined. In total 43,678 cases were identified in the 19 high endemic districts; 30,616 limb lymphoedema (70.1%; female 55.3%), 12,824 hydrocoele (29.4%), and 238 breast/female genital swelling (0.5%). Rangpur Division reported the highest cases numbers and prevalence of lymphoedema (26,781 cases, 195 per 100,000) and hydrocoele (11661 cases, 169.6 per 100,000), with lymphoedema predominately affecting females (n = 21,652). Rangpur and Lalmonirhat Districts reported the highest case numbers (n = 11,199), and prevalence (569 per 100,000) respectively, with five overlapping lymphoedema and hydrocoele sub-district hotspots. In the 15 low endemic districts, 732 cases were identified; 661 lymphoedema (90.2%; female 39.6%), 56 hydrocoele (7.8%), and 15 both conditions (2.0%). Spearman’s correlation analysis found morbidity and mf prevalence significantly positively correlated (r = 0.904; p<0.01). Conclusions/Significance: The Bangladesh LF Programme has developed one of the largest, most comprehensive country databases on LF clinical conditions in the world. It provides an essential database for health workers to identify local morbidity hotspots, deliver the minimum package of care, and address the dossier elimination requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sustainable Energy Development Authority of Malaysia (SEDA) regularly receives complaints about damaged components and distribution boards of PV systems due to lightning strikes. Permanent and momentary interruptions of distribution circuits may also occur from the disturbance. In this paper, a solar PV Rooftop system (3.91 kWp) provided by SEDA was modelled in the PSCAD/EMTDC. The Heidler function was used as a lightning current waveform model to analyse the transient current and voltage at two different points susceptible to the influence of lightning events such as different lightning current wave shape, standard lightning current and non-standard lightning current. This study examines the effect on the system components when lightning directly strikes at two different points of the installation. The two points lie between the inverter and the solar PV array and between inverter and grid. Exceptionally high current and voltage due to the direct lightning strike on a certain point of a PV Rooftop system was also studied. The result of this case study is observed with and without the inclusion of surge protective devices (SPDs). The parameters used were 31 kA of peak current, 10 metres cable length and lightning impulse current wave shape of 8/20μs. The high current and voltage at P1 striking point were 31 kA and 2397 kV, respectively. As for the AC part, the current and voltage values were found to be 5.97 kA and 5392 kV, respectively.Therefore, SPDs with suitable rating provided by SEDA were deployed. Results showed that high transient current voltage is expected to clamp sharply at the values of 1.915 kV and 0 A at the P1 striking point. As for the AC part, the current and voltage values were found to be 0 kA and 0.751 V, respectively. Varying lightning impulse current wave shapes at striking point P2 showed that the highest voltage was obtained at waveshape 10/350 μs at 11277 kV followed by wave shapes of 2/70 μs, 8/20 μs and 0.7/6 μs. The high value of transient voltage was clamped at a lower level of 2.029 kV. Different lightning amplitudes were also applied, ranging from 2–200 kA selected based on the CIGRE distribution. It showed that the current and voltage at P1 and P2 were directly proportional. Therefore, the SPD will be designed at an acceptable rating and proper position of SPD installation at solar PV Rooftop will be proposed. The results obtained in this study can then be utilised to appropriately assign a SPD to protect the PV systems that are connected to the grid. Installing SPDs without considering the needs of lightning protection zones would expose the expensive equipment to potential damage even though the proper energy coordination of SPDs is in place. As such, the simulation results provide a basis for controlling the impacts of direct lightning strikes on electrical equipment and power grids and thus justify SPD coordination to ensure the reliability of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Developing countries still struggle with late detection and mortality from pertussis. A review of clinical case definitions is necessary for early disease detection. This paper aimed to study possible clinical characteristics for earlier pertussis detection in a sporadic setting. Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of medical and laboratory records in a general paediatric ward of a district hospital in a developing country. Inclusion criteria were all children hospitalised with nasopharyngeal swab taken for Bordetella pertussis. We compared sensitivity and specificity of World Health Organization diagnostic criteria with other clinical characteristics. Polymerase chain reaction Bordetella pertussis was the gold standard used. Results: Out of 207 eligible admissions, the study retrieved 128 complete records. Approximately half of the children were less than 3 months old. The World Health Organization diagnostic criteria had a low sensitivity (15%), but high specificity (92%). In comparison, combinations that included paroxysmal cough, ill contact and facial congestion had higher sensitivity. Increasing cough duration improved specificity while compromising sensitivity. Conclusion: Several clinical characteristics such as paroxysmal cough, facial congestion and a history of ill contact have potential for early clinical detection. Conventional emphasis on cough duration may hamper early detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bangladesh is one of the most anemia prone countries in South Asia. Children of age under five years and women of reproductive age are particularly vulnerable in this region. Although several studies have investigated the risk factors of anemia, only few have explored its association with malnutrition, despite its high prevalence in the same group. The objective of this paper is to investigate the association of malnutrition with anemia by conducting separate analyses for under-five children and women of reproductive age using data from the nationally representative 2011 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Methods: Two binary outcome variables are considered separately: presence of anemia in children under five years of age (Hb<11.0 g/dl) and presence of anemia in women of childbearing age (Hb<12.0 g/dl). The exposures of interest corresponding to these two outcomes are stunting (low height-for-age) and low BMI (<18.5 kg/m2), respectively. Preliminary analysis involves estimating the association between exposure and outcome while controlling for a single confounder by computing adjusted odds ratios (adjOR) using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel approach in stratified analysis. Later, associations between the exposures and outcomes are estimated separately for under-five children and women of reproductive age by fitting multivariable regression models that adjust simultaneously for several confounders. Results: The prevalence of anemia is found to be higher among both the stunted children and women with low BMI compared to their healthy counterparts (Children: 56% vs 48%; women: 50% vs 43%). Furthermore, stunted children and women with low BMI have significantly increased odds of developing anemia, as reflected by the adjusted ORs of 1.76 (95% CI:1.10–2.83) and 1.81 (95% CI: 1.11–3.48), respectively. The association of stunting with anemia in children was modified by their age and socio-economic condition, where risk of being anemic decreases with increasing age but with a lower rate for stunted children from richest family. In addition, stunted children of anemic mothers are at greater risk of being anemic compared to non-stunted children of anemic or non-anemic mothers. Again the association between BMI and anemia in women is modified by the level of education, with risk of anemia being lowest among women with low BMI and higher education. Conclusion: Evidence–based policies targeting the vulnerable groups are required to combat anemia and nutritional deficiencies simultaneously under the same program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the shared prosperity goal by the World Bank in 2013 and Sustainable Development Goal 10, on inequality, by the United Nations in 2015 should strengthen the focus of development interventions and cooperation on the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. This paper contributes to the incipient literature on within-country allocations of development institutions and assesses the geographic targeting of World Bank projects to the bottom 40 percent. Bivariate correlations between the allocation of project funding approved over 2005–14 and the geographical distribution of the bottom 40 as measured by survey income or consumption data are complemented by regressions with population and other potential factors affecting the within-country allocations as controls. The correlation analysis shows that, of the 58 countries in the sample, 41 exhibit a positive correlation between the shares of the bottom 40 and World Bank funding, and, in almost half of these, the correlation is above 0.5. Slightly more than a quarter of the countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit a negative correlation. The regression analysis shows that, once one controls for population, the correlation between the bottom 40 and World Bank funding switches sign and becomes significant and negative on average. This is entirely driven by Sub-Saharan Africa and not observed in the other regions. Hence, the significant and positive correlation in the estimations without controlling for population suggests that World Bank project funding is concentrated in administrative areas in which more people live (including the bottom 40) rather than in poorer administrative areas. Furthermore, capital cities receive disproportionally high shares of World Bank funding on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's air transport industry and the change in market consumption structure, service quality has become one of the important factors affecting airline revenue. How to formulate a reasonable pricing strategy and maintain competitiveness in the fierce market competition has become an urgent problem for airlines. First, the impact factor of service quality level in the traditional pricing model is introduced and a static price competition model for multi-oligopoly airlines based on service quality is established in this paper. And then, a dynamic pricing model based on service quality of the multi-oligopoly airlines is established. The model incorporates the weight factor of service quality impact, which is used to indicate the weight of the service quality level in the process of airline dynamic pricing. The research results show that the service quality level of airlines has an indispensable influence on its development. Airlines should improve service quality as soon as possible to enhance market competitiveness and achieve sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops two-stage inverse data envelopment analysis models with undesirable outputs to formulate resource plans for 16 Chinese listed commercial banks whose outputs are increased and overall efficiency is kept unchanged in the short term. We use these models to meet three different output targets, namely, increasing both the desirable and undesirable outputs by the same percentage, increasing these outputs by different percentages, and increasing only the desirable outputs while keeping the undesirable outputs unchanged. We find that operation cost and interest expense are more flexible than labor in the adjustment process and that deposits have no obvious law of change. The findings of this work provide some suggestions for bank managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deterioration of water quality has become a primary environmental concern worldwide. Understanding the status of water quality and identifying the influencing factors are important for water resources management. However, reported analyses have mostly been conducted in small and focused areas. It is still unclear if factors driving spatial variation in water quality would be different in extended spatial scales. In this paper, we analyzed spatial pattern of inland surface water quality in China using a dataset with four water quality parameters (i.e., pH, DO, NH4+-N and CODMn) and the water quality level. We tested the effects of anthropogenic (i.e., land use and socio-economic) and natural (i.e., climatic and topographic) factors on spatial variation in water quality. The study concluded that the overall inland surface water quality in China was at level III (fair). Water quality level was strongly correlated with CODMn and NH4+-N concentration. In contrast to reported studies that suggested land use patterns were the determinants of inland surface water quality, this study revealed that both anthropogenic and natural factors played important roles in explaining spatial variation of inland surface water quality in China. Among the tested explanatory variables, mean elevation within watershed appeared as the best predictor for pH, while annual precipitation and mean air temperature were the most important explanatory variables for CODMn and DO, respectively. NH4+-N concentration and water quality level were most strongly correlated with the percent of forest cover in watershed. Compared to studies at smaller spatial scales, this study found different influencing factors of surface water quality, suggesting that factors may play different roles at different spatial scales of consideration. Therefore management policies and measures in water quality control must be established and implemented accordingly. Since currently adopted parameters for monitoring of inland surface water quality in China are largely influenced by natural variables, additional physicochemical and biological indicators are needed for a robust assessment of human impacts on water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most papers on the physical condition of birds during spring migration focused on food availability preceding migratory take-off. Only a few studies examined the effect of climate conditions at the wintering grounds upon autumn arrival on bird physical condition later on. Here, we hypothesized that environmental conditions upon arrival at the wintering grounds, and not necessarily upon departure, have a crucial carry-over effect on bird spring migration. Using 29,000 observations of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca, and the eastern Bonelli’s warbler, Phylloscopus orientalis, we found temperatures upon arrival at the African wintering grounds to be the only climatic variable correlated with birds’ body state upon spring stopover in Israel, six months later. Two different mechanisms could explain these results. One possibility is that high temperatures create favorable conditions for insect activity, which allows rapid recovery from autumn migration and hence successful winter survival and maintenance. Another possible scenario is that harsh conditions, due to the heat and dry environment, cause high mortality, permitting survival of larger individuals which, then, enjoy reduced inter- and intra-specific competition. Whatever the mechanism is, our findings suggest that conditions upon autumn arrival, and not necessarily at the end of winter as traditionally thought, may have a major impact on migrating birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines a Granger causality test and a VAR model to investigate the relationships among oil price shocks, global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU), and China’s industrial economic growth. Based on monthly data from 2000 to 2017, we reveal that GEPU and world oil prices jointly Granger cause China's industrial economic growth; world oil prices have a positive effect on China's industrial economic growth, while GEPU has a negative effect. Further analyses investigate the asymmetry effect of oil prices and find that the negative component shows a more significant impact on China's industrial economic growth. The results are robust to different oil price and EPU proxies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the calculation of the inclusive financial development level of 22 provinces and 4 municipalities in China from 2004 to 2017, this paper uses the Kernel density estimation method to further analyze the evolution of the inclusive financial index. Based on the above analysis, we make empirical analysis of the impact of China's inclusive financial inclusion development index on farmers' entrepreneurship using static panel and dynamic panel estimation method. The empirical conclusions show that there are certain differences in inclusive financial inclusion development level in various provinces in China. Improving the inclusion development level of inclusive finance can better promote farmers' entrepreneurship. Urbanization level, economic openness and regional economic development level have a significant positive effect on farmers' entrepreneurship, while farmers' income and education level have a significant negative effect on farmers' entrepreneurship. It is possible to promote farmers' entrepreneurship by improving the inclusive development level of inclusive finance, combining urbanization, increasing government investment in productive fixed assets, increasing economic openness and improving regional economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autonomous Vehicles (AV) technology is emerging. Field tests on public roads have been on going in several states in the US as well as in Europe and Asia. During the US public road tests, crashes with AV involved happened, which becomes a concern to the public. Most previous studies on AV safety relied heavily on assessing drivers’ performance and behaviors in a simulation environment and developing automated driving system performance in a closed field environment. However, contributing factors and the mechanism of AV-related crashes have not been comprehensively and quantitatively investigated due to the lack of field AV crash data. By harnessing California’s Report of Traffic Collision Involving an Autonomous Vehicle Database, which includes the AV crash data from 2014 to 2018, this paper investigates by far the most current and complete AV crash database in the US using statistical modeling approaches that involve both ordinal logistic regression and CART classification tree. The quantitative analysis based on ordinal logistic regression and CART models has successfully explored the mechanism of AV-related crash, via both perspectives of crash severity and collision types. Particularly, the CART model reveals and visualize the hierarchical structure of the AV crash mechanism with knowledge of how these traffic, roadway, and environmental contributing factors can lead to crashes of various serveries and collision types. Statistical analysis results indicate that crash severity significantly increases if the AV is responsible for the crash. The highway is identified as the location where severe injuries are likely to happen. AV collision types are affected by whether the vehicle is on automated driving mode, whether the crashes involve pedestrians/cyclists, as well as the roadway environment. The method used in this research provides a proven approach to statistically analyze and understand AV safety issues. And this benefit is potential be even enhanced with an increasing sample size of AV-related crashes records in the future. The comprehensive knowledge obtained ultimately facilitates assessing and improving safety performance of automated vehicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infections outnumber clinical presentations, however the predictors for development of active disease are not well known. We aimed to identify serological, immunological and genetic markers for progression from L. donovani infection to clinical Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). Methods: We enrolled all residents >2 years of age in 27 VL endemic villages in Bihar (India). Blood samples collected on filter paper on two occasions 6–12 months apart, were tested for antibodies against L. donovani with rK39-ELISA and DAT. Sero converters, (negative for both tests in the first round but positive on either of the two during the second round) and controls (negative on both tests on both occasions) were followed for three years. At the start of follow-up venous blood was collected for the following tests: DAT, rK39- ELISA, Quantiferon assay, SNP/HLA genotyping and L.donovani specific quantitative PCR. Results: Among 1,606 subjects enrolled,17 (8/476 seroconverters and 9/1,130 controls) developed VL (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1–8.3). High DAT and rK39 ELISA antibody titers as well as positive qPCR were strongly and significantly associated with progression from seroconversion to VL with odds ratios of 19.1, 30.3 and 20.9 respectively. Most VL cases arose early (median 5 months) during follow-up. Conclusion: We confirmed the strong association between high DAT and/or rK39 titers and progression to disease among asymptomatic subjects and identified qPCR as an additional predictor. Low predictive values do not warrant prophylactic treatment but as most progressed to VL early during follow-up, careful oberservation of these subjects for at least 6 months is indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the link between reliance on Facebook for news, political knowledge, and political engagement in the Philippines. We tested five hypotheses using data gathered from an online survey of 978 Filipinos conducted from February 1 to March 31, 2016. Findings support the hypothesis that those who rely less on social media as a news source exhibit higher levels of perceived knowledge about politics than those who rely more on it for news. Controlling for traditional news use, following political officials or institutions on social media is associated with higher levels of political interest and engagement, those with more politically active friends on Facebook have higher levels of exposure to political content online, and there is a positive correlation between Facebook being a source of information about politics and discussing politics more often with others. However, the hypothesis that those with more friends on their network who are politically active, will have greater political knowledge and more political engagement than those who have few politically active friends on their Facebook network is not supported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a severe form of the leishmaniasis-disease complex. Its importance to public health relies on its high fatality rate in non-treated cases, the socio-economic impact related to its morbidity, and its endemicity on different continents. The estimated burden of disease of VL varies from 1,969,000 to 2,357,000 Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). VL is classified as a Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD), and is strongly related to poverty and its consequences. Visceral leishmaniasis calls for the development of cost-effective technologies for diagnosis and treatment. Objective: The main objective of this study was to identify, describe, classify and analyze the scientific health economic evidence of VL-related technologies. Methods: A web search of combinations of free text and Mesh terms related to the economic evaluation of visceral leishmaniasis was conducted on scientific publication databases (Web of Science, Scopus, Medline via the Pubmed and Lilacs). A manual search of references lists of articles previously identified by the authors was also included. Articles written in English, Portuguese, Spanish or French were considered suitable for inclusion. Articles that matched the inclusion criteria were screened by at least two researchers, who extracted information regarding the epidemiologic scenario and methodological issues on a standardized form. Results: The initial search retrieved 107 articles, whose abstracts were inspected according to the inclusion criteria leading to a first selection of 49 (46%) articles. After the elimination of duplicates, the list was reduced to 21 (20%) articles. After careful reading and application of exclusion criteria, 14 papers were eligible according to the description, classification and analysis process proposed by the study. When classified by type of economic evaluation, articles were 7 (50%) cost-effectiveness, 5 (36%) cost-minimization, 1(7%) cost-benefit, and 1(7%) budget impact. When classified by methodology, studies were mainly nested to clinical-trials ("piggy back") 8(57%). Discount rates for outcomes and costs were present in 3 (43%) of the cost-effectiveness studies, and according to WHO's recommendations, the discount rate of 3% was used in all studies. Conclusions: This article showed that health economic evaluations on visceral leishmaniasis used a wide range of technologies and methods. Nevertheless it is important to point out the geographic concentration of studies, which makes their transferability uncertain to different epidemiological scenarios, especially those concerning visceral leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania infantum. Author Summary: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), also known as kala azar, is a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic protozoa of the genus Leishmania. VL is related to poverty and its consequences, which leads to its status of neglected disease. For that reason, cost-effective forms of diagnoses and treatment are very important and still needed. This research aimed at a better understanding of the publications about the technologies currently available, from the standpoint of their economic value. For that purpose, we conducted a systematic review of the literature in order to identify the papers that conducted economic evaluations of technologies used in VL. We initially retrieved 107 articles, which were inspected according to specific guidelines for systematic reviews. After that process, 14 articles matched the inclusion criteria in our review. We classified those studies according to the type of economic evaluation they made, and the methodology used in each one. We found evaluations about a variety of technologies, but the studies were geographically concentrated in Asia, more specifically in India. This concentration is not good because the disease also affects other continents and it is not possible to transfer the economic evaluation from one country or epidemiologic scenario to another. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding the past-year prevalence of male-perpetrated intimate partner violence (IPV) and risk factors is essential for building evidence-based prevention and monitoring progress to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5.2, but so far, population-based research on this remains very limited. The objective of this study is to compare the population prevalence rates of past-year male-perpetrated IPV and nonpartner rape from women's and men's reports across 4 countries in Asia and the Pacific. A further objective is to describe the risk factors associated with women's experience of past-year physical or sexual IPV from women's reports and factors driving women's past-year experience of partner violence.Methods and Findings: This paper presents findings from the United Nations Multi-country Study on Men and Violence in Asia and the Pacific. In the course of this study, in population-based cross-sectional surveys, 5,206 men and 3,106 women aged 18-49 years were interviewed from 4 countries: Cambodia, China, Papua New Guinea (PNG), and Sri Lanka. To measure risk factors, we use logistic regression and structural equation modelling to show pathways and mediators. The analysis was not based on a written plan, and following a reviewer's comments, some material was moved to supplementary files and the regression was performed without variable elimination. Men reported more lifetime perpetration of IPV (physical or sexual IPV range 32.5%-80%) than women did experience (physical or sexual IPV range 27.5%-67.4%), but women's reports of past-year experience (physical or sexual IPV range 8.2%-32.1%) were not very clearly different from men's (physical or sexual IPV range 10.1%-34.0%). Women reported much more emotional/economic abuse (past-year ranges 1.4%-5.7% for men and 4.1%-27.7% for women). Reports of nonpartner rape were similar for men (range 0.8%-1.9% in the past year) and women (range 0.4%-2.3% in past year), except in Bougainville, where they were higher for men (11.7% versus 5.7%). The risk factor modelling shows 4 groups of variables to be important in experience of past-year sexual and/or physical IPV: (1) poverty, (2) all childhood trauma, (3) quarrelling and women's limited control in relationships, and (4) partner factors (substance abuse, unemployment, and infidelity). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was largest for quarrelling often, but the second greatest PAF was for the group related to exposure to violence in childhood. The relationship control variable group had the third highest PAF, followed by other partner factors. Currently married women were also more at risk. In the structural model, a resilience pathway showed less poverty, higher education, and more gender-equitable ideas were connected and conveyed protection from IPV. These are all amenable risk factors. This research was cross-sectional, so we cannot be sure of the temporal sequence of exposure, but the outcome being a past-year measure to some extent mitigates this problem.Conclusions: Past-year IPV indicators based on women's reported experience that were developed to track SDG 5 are probably reasonably reliable but will not always give the same prevalence as may be reported by men. Report validity requires further research. Interviews with men to track past-year nonpartner rape perpetration are feasible and important. The findings suggest a range of factors are associated with past-year physical and/or sexual IPV exposure; of particular interest is the resilience pathway suggested by the structural model, which is highly amenable to intervention and explains why combining economic empowerment of women and gender empowerment/relationship skills training has been successful. This study provides additional rationale for scaling up violence prevention interventions that combine economic and gender empowerment/relationship skills building of women, as well as the value of investing in girls' education with a view to long-term violence reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unusual biogeographic patterns of closely related groups reflect events in the past, and molecular analyses can help to elucidate these events. While ample research on the origin of disjunct distributions of different organism groups in the Western Paleartic has been conducted, such studies are rare for Eastern Palearctic organisms. In this paper we present a phylogeographic analysis of the disjunct distribution pattern of the extant species of the strongly cool-adapted Epiophlebia dragonflies from Asia. We investigated sequences of the usually more conserved 18 S rDNA and 28 S rDNA genes and the more variable sequences of ITS1, ITS2 and CO2 of all three currently recognised Epiophlebia species and of a sample of other odonatan species. In all genes investigated the degrees of similarity between species of Epiophlebia are very high and resemble those otherwise found between different populations of the same species in Odonata. This indicates that substantial gene transfer between these populations occurred in the comparatively recent past. Our analyses imply a wide distribution of the ancestor of extant Epiophlebia in Southeast Asia during the last ice age, when suitable habitats were more common. During the following warming phase, its range contracted, resulting in the current disjunct distribution. Given the strong sensitivity of these species to climatic parameters, the current trend to increasing global temperatures will further reduce acceptable habitats and seriously threaten the existences of these last representatives of an ancient group of Odonata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In 2010, the Global Fund provided more than 75% of external international financing for malaria control. The Global Fund uses performance based funding in the grants it finances. This paper analyses the indicators used to measure the performance of Global Fund supported malaria grants in Asia. Methods: Indicators used in the performance frameworks for all Global Fund supported malaria grants in Asia were retrieved from grant database and grouped into impact, outcome, output and input categories and categorized by service delivery areas. Indicators of each group were compared over rounds. Indicators used in performance frameworks were compared with internationally adopted indicators included in the Monitoring and Evaluation Toolkit developed by the Global Fund and international technical agencies. Results: Between 2002 and 2010, 1,434 indicators were included in the performance frameworks of the 48 malaria grants awarded in Asia, including 229 impact and 227 outcome indicators, 437 output and 541 input indicators, with an average of 29.9 indicators per grant. The proportion of impact and outcome indicators increased over rounds, with that of input indicators declining from 44.1% in Round 1 to 22.7% in Round 9. Conclusions: Input indicators, which have predominated the performance frameworks of the Global Fund supported malaria programs in Asia have declined between Rounds 1 and 9. However, increased alignment with internationally adopted indicators included in the Monitoring and Evaluation Toolkit is needed to improve the validity of reported results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]