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Background: Asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infections outnumber clinical presentations, however the predictors for development of active disease are not well known. We aimed to identify serological, immunological and genetic markers for progression from L. donovani infection to clinical Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). Methods: We enrolled all residents >2 years of age in 27 VL endemic villages in Bihar (India). Blood samples collected on filter paper on two occasions 6–12 months apart, were tested for antibodies against L. donovani with rK39-ELISA and DAT. Sero converters, (negative for both tests in the first round but positive on either of the two during the second round) and controls (negative on both tests on both occasions) were followed for three years. At the start of follow-up venous blood was collected for the following tests: DAT, rK39- ELISA, Quantiferon assay, SNP/HLA genotyping and L.donovani specific quantitative PCR. Results: Among 1,606 subjects enrolled,17 (8/476 seroconverters and 9/1,130 controls) developed VL (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1–8.3). High DAT and rK39 ELISA antibody titers as well as positive qPCR were strongly and significantly associated with progression from seroconversion to VL with odds ratios of 19.1, 30.3 and 20.9 respectively. Most VL cases arose early (median 5 months) during follow-up. Conclusion: We confirmed the strong association between high DAT and/or rK39 titers and progression to disease among asymptomatic subjects and identified qPCR as an additional predictor. Low predictive values do not warrant prophylactic treatment but as most progressed to VL early during follow-up, careful oberservation of these subjects for at least 6 months is indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a severe form of the leishmaniasis-disease complex. Its importance to public health relies on its high fatality rate in non-treated cases, the socio-economic impact related to its morbidity, and its endemicity on different continents. The estimated burden of disease of VL varies from 1,969,000 to 2,357,000 Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). VL is classified as a Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD), and is strongly related to poverty and its consequences. Visceral leishmaniasis calls for the development of cost-effective technologies for diagnosis and treatment. Objective: The main objective of this study was to identify, describe, classify and analyze the scientific health economic evidence of VL-related technologies. Methods: A web search of combinations of free text and Mesh terms related to the economic evaluation of visceral leishmaniasis was conducted on scientific publication databases (Web of Science, Scopus, Medline via the Pubmed and Lilacs). A manual search of references lists of articles previously identified by the authors was also included. Articles written in English, Portuguese, Spanish or French were considered suitable for inclusion. Articles that matched the inclusion criteria were screened by at least two researchers, who extracted information regarding the epidemiologic scenario and methodological issues on a standardized form. Results: The initial search retrieved 107 articles, whose abstracts were inspected according to the inclusion criteria leading to a first selection of 49 (46%) articles. After the elimination of duplicates, the list was reduced to 21 (20%) articles. After careful reading and application of exclusion criteria, 14 papers were eligible according to the description, classification and analysis process proposed by the study. When classified by type of economic evaluation, articles were 7 (50%) cost-effectiveness, 5 (36%) cost-minimization, 1(7%) cost-benefit, and 1(7%) budget impact. When classified by methodology, studies were mainly nested to clinical-trials ("piggy back") 8(57%). Discount rates for outcomes and costs were present in 3 (43%) of the cost-effectiveness studies, and according to WHO's recommendations, the discount rate of 3% was used in all studies. Conclusions: This article showed that health economic evaluations on visceral leishmaniasis used a wide range of technologies and methods. Nevertheless it is important to point out the geographic concentration of studies, which makes their transferability uncertain to different epidemiological scenarios, especially those concerning visceral leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania infantum. Author Summary: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), also known as kala azar, is a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic protozoa of the genus Leishmania. VL is related to poverty and its consequences, which leads to its status of neglected disease. For that reason, cost-effective forms of diagnoses and treatment are very important and still needed. This research aimed at a better understanding of the publications about the technologies currently available, from the standpoint of their economic value. For that purpose, we conducted a systematic review of the literature in order to identify the papers that conducted economic evaluations of technologies used in VL. We initially retrieved 107 articles, which were inspected according to specific guidelines for systematic reviews. After that process, 14 articles matched the inclusion criteria in our review. We classified those studies according to the type of economic evaluation they made, and the methodology used in each one. We found evaluations about a variety of technologies, but the studies were geographically concentrated in Asia, more specifically in India. This concentration is not good because the disease also affects other continents and it is not possible to transfer the economic evaluation from one country or epidemiologic scenario to another. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]