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There is considerable variation among studies that evaluate how amphibian populations respond to global climate change. We used 23 years of annual survey data to test whether changes in climate have caused predictable shifts in the phenology and population characteristics of adult spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) during spring breeding migrations. Although we observed year-to-year correlation between seasonal climate variables and salamander population characteristics, there have not been long-term, directional shifts in phenological or population characteristics. Warm winters consistently resulted in early migration dates, but across the 23-year study, there was no overall shift towards warmer winters and thus no advanced migration timing. Warm summers and low variability in summer temperatures were correlated with large salamander body sizes, yet an overall shift towards increasing body sizes was not observed despite rising summer temperatures during the study. This was likely due to the absence of long-term changes of within-year variation in summer temperatures, which was a stronger determinant of body size than summer temperature alone. Climate-induced shifts in population characteristics were thus not observed for this species as long-term changes in important seasonal climate variables were not observed during the 23-years of the study. Different amphibian populations will likely be more resilient to climate change impacts than others, and the probability of amphibians exhibiting long-term population changes will depend on how seasonal climate change interacts with a species’ life history, phenology, and geographic location. Linking a wide range of seasonal climatic conditions to species or population characteristics should thus improve our ability for explaining idiosyncratic responses of species to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bemisia tabaci (the tobacco whitefly) is an important agricultural pest of global significance primarily because of its ability to transmit multiple damaging plant viruses. To date, UK outbreaks of the whitefly have been restricted to glasshouses and there are no records of the whitefly establishing outdoors during the summer. This is despite the fact that annual degree-day models (that estimate accumulated warmth over the year above the development threshold), indicate that B. tabaci has the thermal potential for multiple summer generations in the UK. A set of 49 climate indices calculated using the present day climate (1986–2015) were therefore compared between the UK and the south of France, where B. tabaci is able to establish outdoors, to identify the factors limiting its establishment. The number of cold days and nights in summer, as well as the time spent within the whitefly’s optimum temperature range, were most significantly different between the two areas. These indices may impact the development of B. tabaci and offer an explanation for the absence of the whitefly outdoors in the UK during the summer. Further analyses undertaken with climate projections suggest that in a 2–4°C warmer world this pest could pose a risk to outdoor UK crops in July and August. A clear south-north gradient can be demonstrated for these indices. Linking any possible northwards spread of B. tabaci populations outdoors in France with changes in these indices could therefore provide an important indicator of any change in the risks of outdoor populations of this species developing in the UK. The effectiveness of climate indices in pest risk analysis is compellingly demonstrated, and it is recommended that in-depth comparisons of climatic indices between areas of pest presence and absence are conducted in other situations where forecasting the risks of pest establishment are complex and challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species and ecosystems usually face more than one threat. The damage caused by these multiple threats can accumulate nonlinearly: either subadditively, when the joint damage of combined threats is less than the damages of both threats individually added together, or superadditively, when the joint damage is greater than the two individual damages added together. These additivity dynamics are commonly attributed to the nature of the threatening processes, but conflicting empirical observations challenge this assumption. Here, we use a theoretical model to demonstrate that the additivity of threats can change with different magnitudes of threat impacts (effect of a threat on the population parameter, like growth rate). We use a harvested single-species population model to integrate the effects of multiple threats on equilibrium abundance. Our results reveal that threats do not always display consistent additive behavior, even in simple systems. Instead, their additivity depends on the magnitudes of the impacts of two threats, and the population parameter that is impacted by each threat. In our model specifically, when multiple threats have a low impact on the growth rate of a population, they display superadditive dynamics. In contrast, threats that impact the species’ carrying capacity are always additive or subadditive. These dynamics can be understood by reference to the curvature of the relationship between a given population parameter (e.g., growth) and equilibrium population size. Our results suggest that management actions can achieve amplified benefits if they target low-amplitude threats that affect the growth rate, since these will be in a superadditive phase. More generally, our results suggest that cumulative impact theory should focus more than previously on the magnitude of the impact on the population parameter, and should be cautious about attributing additive dynamics to particular threat combinations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ticks are second only to mosquitoes as vectors of disease to humans and animals. Tick host detection is mainly ascribed to Haller’s organ, a complex sensory structure on the tick foreleg that detects odors, carbon dioxide and heat, but these host detection mechanisms are not well understood. There is anecdotal evidence that ticks and other ectoparasites are attracted to heat, but it has never been demonstrated that they use radiant heat to detect hosts at a distance. In fact, previous attempts to do this have concluded that radiant heat was not used by ticks. Here we use a novel thermotaxis assay to investigate the detection range, temperature dependence and repellent sensitivity of heat perception in ticks and to identify the sensory organ responsible for this sense. We show that Amblyomma americanum and Dermacentor variabilis ticks can locate a human from several meters away by radiant heat sensed by the part of Haller’s organ known as the capsule, a covered spherical pit organ. An aperture in the capsule cover confers directionality and highly reflective interior surfaces of the capsule concentrate radiation on the sensilla to sharpen directionality and increase sensitivity. Commercial insect repellents provide an effective means of personal protection against potentially infectious tick bites by hindering host-seeking behavior. Low concentrations of the insect repellents DEET, picaridin, 2-undecanone, citronellal and nootkatone eliminate thermotaxis without affecting olfaction-stimulated host-seeking behavior. Our results demonstrate that the tick Haller’s organ capsule is a radiant heat sensor used in host-finding and that repellents disrupt this sense at concentrations that do not disrupt olfaction. We anticipate that this discovery will significantly aid insect repellent research and provide novel targets for the development of innovative integrated pest management programs and personal protection strategies for ectoparasites and vector-borne disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change can severely impact artisanal fisheries and affect the role they play in food security. We study climate change effects on the triple bottom line of ecological productivity, fishers’ incomes, and fish consumption for an artisanal open-access fishery. We develop and apply an empirical, stochastic bio-economic model for the Senegalese artisanal purse seine fishery on small pelagic fish and compare the simulated fishery’s development using four climate projections and two policy scenarios. We find that economic processes of adaptation may amplify the effects of climate variations. The regions’ catch potential increases with climate change, induced by stock distribution changes. However, this outcome escalates over-fishing, whose effects outpace the incipiently favorable climate change effects under three of the four climate projections. Without policy action, the fishery is estimated to collapse in 2030–2035 on average over 1000 runs. We propose an easily implementable and overall welfare-increasing intervention: reduction of fuel subsidies. If fuel subsidies were abolished, ecological sustainability as well as the fishery’s welfare contribution would increase regardless of the climate projection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foraminifera are expected to be particularly susceptible to future changes in ocean carbonate chemistry as a function of increased atmospheric CO2. Studies in an experimental recirculating seawater system were performed with a dominant benthic foraminiferal species collected from intertidal mudflats. We investigated the experimental impacts of ocean acidification on survival, growth/calcification, morphology and the biometric features of a calcareous species Elphidium williamsoni. Foraminifera were exposed for 6 weeks to four different pH treatments that replicated future scenarios of a high CO2 atmosphere resulting in lower seawater pH. Results revealed that declining seawater pH caused a decline in foraminiferal survival rate and growth/calcification (mainly through test weight reduction). Scanning electron microscopy image analysis of live specimens at the end of the experimental period show changes in foraminiferal morphology with clear signs of corrosion and cracking on the test surface, septal bridges, sutures and feeding structures of specimens exposed to the lowest pH conditions. These findings suggest that the morphological changes observed in shell feeding structures may serve to alter: (1) foraminiferal feeding efficiency and their long-term ecological competitiveness, (2) the energy transferred within the benthic food web with a subsequent shift in benthic community structures and (3) carbon cycling and total CaCO3 production, both highly significant processes in coastal waters. These experimental results open-up the possibility of modelling future impacts of ocean acidification on both calcification and dissolution in benthic foraminifera within mid-latitude intertidal environments, with potential implications for understanding the changing marine carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experimental and numerical analyses performed on a scaled-down model of a 1900TEU container-ship are reported herein. Wind-tunnel and towing-tank experiments along with computational-fluid-dynamic simulations were performed to obtain (1) wind-load coefficients for superstructure of container ship at different wind angles under full-load operating conditions; (2) wave resistance of the model sans the superstructure under different wave conditions; and (3) combined wind–wave resistance of the model in the head waves coupled with a fluctuating wind. Wind-tunnel experiments were first performed to determine wind-load coefficients concerning of the superstructure at different wind angles. Subsequently, the obtained wind-load coefficients from the wind tunnel test were compared against numerical and empirically obtained results to validate the applicability of the applied numerical methods. Next, the wave-induced resistance to ship motion was investigated via a series of towing-tank experiments and numerical simulations to analyze the resistance and motion of ship under wavy conditions. Finally, characteristics of the added resistance to ship motion under conditions of combined wind–wave load were analyzed, and the coupling between ship motion and combined wind–wave load was used to investigate the changes in added resistance under different load scenarios. The results reveal that combined wind–wave load causes the resistance to ship motion to exceed the algebraic sum of the corresponding resistances under standalone wind- and wave-load conditions. The additional resistance was observed to be a combined manifestation of resistances induced by ship motion and wave-parameter alterations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black leaf streak disease, or black Sigatoka, is caused by the fungus Pseudocercospora fijiensis, and has been identified as a major constraint to global production of banana and plantain. We fitted a climatic niche model (CLIMEX) for P. fijiensis to gain an understanding of the patterns of climate suitability, and hence hazard from this disease. We then calibrated the climate suitability patterns against the results of an expert elicitation of disease pressure patterns. We found a moderately strong non-linear relationship between modelled climate suitability for P.°fijiensis and the expert ratings for disease pressure. The strength of the relationship provides a cross-validation between the CLIMEX model and the expert elicitation process. The bulk of global banana production experiences high potential threat from P. fijiensis, and the higher yielding areas for banana and plantain production are at greatest threat. By explicitly considering the role of irrigation we have been able to identify how strategic irrigation could be used to support banana production in areas that are at low risk from P. fijiensis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contemporary environmental-stewardship programmes primarily aimed at curbing the global warming potential by adopting a multidisciplinary approach. Manipulating the feeding strategies has great potential in reducing the environmental footprints of livestock production. This study intends to assess the effect of soybean meal (SBM) replacement with varying levels of coated urea (SRU) on both zoo-technical (nutrient digestibility, heat increment, and physio-biochemical parameters) and environmental attributes. The coated urea was used to replace the SBM at 0, 25, 50, and 75 percent levels. Eight adult rams (43.02 ± 0.76) maintained in a conventional shed were used in a replicated 4 x 4 Latin square design. Not all the physiological parameters viz. rectal temperature, pulse rate, and respiratory rate were affected (P>0.05)f by varying levels of SRU incorporation. The SRU fed animals had higher (P<0.05) crude protein digestibility compared to SBM fed animals; however, the replacements did not affect the nutrient digestibility coefficients of DM, OM, NFC, NDFap, ADF, and hemicellulose components. The SRU did not affect various biochemical parameters such as serum glucose, total protein, albumin, globulin, urea, creatinine, ALT, AST, Ca, P and T3, and T4 levels; however, post-prandial serum urea N (SUN) values showed a diurnal quadratic pattern (P<0.05) with a dose-dependent relationship. Further, the SBM replacements had no effect on the calcium excretion, while the SRU incorporation decreased the faecal phosphorous content, thereby abating the eutrophication phenomenon. Although the SBM replacements did not affect in vivo water variables and faecal solid fractions, they managed to decrease the land and virtual water requirement along with global warming potential (GWP) of the entire trial. The GWP-perceptual map unveils the fact that replacement of conventional feed ingredients with NPN compounds aids in eco-friendly livestock production. Further, the conjectural analysis of the carbon footprint methodology revealed that agricultural by-products consideration could cause a huge increase in the GWP share of feed consumed, thus compelling the importance of research pertaining to feed production perspective as equal as ruminal methane amelioration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution is closely associated with the development of respiratory illness. Behavioral adaptations of people to air pollution may influence its impact, yet this has not been investigated in the literature. Our hypothesis is that people experience and learn the underlying air quality to decide their adaptation, and they have a stronger incentive to behaviorally adapt to the air quality as it deteriorates. We tested our hypothesis on a sample of approximately 25,700 individuals from South Korea from 2002 to 2013 that contained information on daily doctor’s visits due to respiratory disease. We matched individuals to the mean of the past seven-day concentration of the particulate matter of size between 2.5 and 10 micrometers (PM10) in their county of residence. We examined whether people living in counties with greater air pollution suffer less from respiratory disease when the concentration increases. For the analysis, we separated counties into quintiles based on their mean seven-day PM10, and regressed the binary indicator of a daily doctor’s visit with a resulting diagnosis of respiratory disease on the seven-day PM10 concentration of the county of residence interacted with the quintile dummies. The key findings are that a 1-standard-deviation increase in the seven-day PM10 concentration in the two lowest quintiles is associated with an increase of 0.054 percentage points in the likelihood of a doctor’s visit with a resulting diagnosis of respiratory disease, which is about 40% larger than the effect in higher quintiles, and the size of 1-standard-deviation gradually increases from 0.037 percentage points in the third quintile to 0.040 percentage points in the fifth quintile. The smaller increase in the likelihood of respiratory disease in more polluted locations can be explained by the behavioral adaptation to the environment, but the effectiveness of the adaptation seems limited among the highly polluted locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fetida Cave is an active sulfuric acid cave influenced by seawater, showing abundant microbial communities that organize themselves under three main different morphologies: water filaments, vermiculations and moonmilk deposits. These biofilms/deposits have different cave distribution, pH, macro- and microelement and mineralogical composition, carbon and nitrogen content. In particular, water filaments and vermiculations had circumneutral and slightly acidic pH, respectively, both had abundant organic carbon and high microbial diversity. They were rich in macro- and microelements, deriving from mineral dissolution, and, in the case of water filaments, from seawater composition. Vermiculations had different color, partly associated with their mineralogy, and unusual minerals probably due to trapping capacities. Moonmilk was composed of gypsum, poor in organic matter, had an extremely low pH (0–1) and low microbial diversity. Based on 16S rRNA gene analysis, the microbial composition of the biofilms/deposits included autotrophic taxa associated with sulfur and nitrogen cycles and biomineralization processes. In particular, water filaments communities were characterized by bacterial taxa involved in sulfur oxidation and reduction in aquatic, aphotic, microaerophilic/anoxic environments (Campylobacterales, Thiotrichales, Arenicellales, Desulfobacterales, Desulforomonadales) and in chemolithotrophy in marine habitats (Oceanospirillales, Chromatiales). Their biodiversity was linked to the morphology of the water filaments and their collection site. Microbial communities within vermiculations were partly related to their color and showed high abundance of unclassified Betaproteobacteria and sulfur-oxidizing Hydrogenophilales (including Sulfuriferula), and Acidiferrobacterales (including Sulfurifustis), sulfur-reducing Desulfurellales, and ammonia-oxidizing Planctomycetes and Nitrospirae. The microbial community associated with gypsum moonmilk showed the strong dominance (>60%) of the archaeal genus Thermoplasma and lower abundance of chemolithotrophic Acidithiobacillus, metal-oxidizing Metallibacterium, Sulfobacillus, and Acidibacillus. This study describes the geomicrobiology of water filaments, vermiculations and gypsum moonmilk from Fetida Cave, providing insights into the microbial taxa that characterize each morphology and contribute to biogeochemical cycles and speleogenesis of this peculiar seawater-influenced sulfuric acid cave. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A time series of satellite data on Chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) that used ocean color was studied to determine mechanisms of phytoplankton variation in recent decade in the Yellow Sea, China during 2003–2015. The variability patterns on seasonal and inter-annual oscillation periods were confirmed using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), and Morlet wavelet transform analyses, respectively. The first EOF mode for Chl-a was dominated by obvious spring and fall blooms in a spatial pattern that was related to the strong mixing of the water masses from the Yellow Sea Cold Warm Mass (YSCWM) and the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) in winter. The second EOF mode for Chl-a showed an opposite spatial pattern between the northern and southern regions. The temporal coefficient showed differences in the timing of blooms. On an inter-annual scale, Chl-a indicated variation at periods of 2–4 years during 2003–2015. Chl-a showed a significantly negative correlation with the sea surface temperature (r = -0.21, p<0.01), with time lags of 4 months (Chl-a ahead). Chl-a was coupled with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, with a positive correlation (r = 0.46, p<0.01) at a lag of 3–5 months (ENSO ahead). The present study demonstrated that the variation in phytoplankton biomass was controlled primarily by water mass seasonally, and it was influenced by ENSO events on an inter-annual scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting biodiversity and ecosystem function worldwide, and the lowland tropics are of special concern because organisms living in this region experience temperatures that are close to their upper thermal limits. However, it remains unclear how and whether tropical lowland species will be able to cope with the predicted pace of climate warming. Additionally, there is growing interest in examining how quickly thermal physiological traits have evolved across taxa, and whether thermal physiological traits are evolutionarily conserved or labile. We measured critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and minimum (CTmin) in 56 species of lowland Amazonian frogs to determine the extent of phylogenetic conservatism in tolerance to heat and cold, and to predict species’ vulnerability to climate change. The species we studied live in sympatry and represent ~65% of the known alpha diversity at our study site. Given that critical thermal limits may have evolved differently in response to different temperature constraints, we tested whether CTmax and CTmin exhibit different rates of evolutionary change. Measuring both critical thermal traits allowed us to estimate species’ thermal breadth and infer their potential to respond to abrupt changes in temperature (warming and cooling). Additionally, we assessed the contribution of life history traits and found that both critical thermal traits were correlated with species’ body size and microhabitat use. Specifically, small direct-developing frogs in the Strabomantidae family appear to be at highest risk of thermal stress while tree frogs (Hylidae) and narrow mouthed frogs (Microhylidae) tolerate higher temperatures. While CTmax and CTmin had considerable variation within and among families, both critical thermal traits exhibited similar rates of evolutionary change. Our results suggest that 4% of lowland rainforest frogs assessed will experience temperatures exceeding their CTmax, 25% might be moderately affected and 70% are unlikely to experience pronounced heat stress under a hypothetical 3°C temperature increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four chronologies of the bivalve species Glycymeris pilosa have been constructed along a 300 km gradient of the eastern coastal Adriatic Sea, all of which span the common period of 1982–2015. The chronologies are compared to local and remote environmental drivers suspected to influence the biology of the system, including air and seawater temperature, precipitation and freshwater discharge. The Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), a key oceanographic feature quantified by satellite-derived absolute dynamic topography, is also compared to the chronologies. The chronologies at the two southern sites are more strongly influenced by local river discharge, while the two northern chronologies are more strongly influenced by BiOS. These results highlight the broadscale importance of BiOS to the Adriatic system as well as the heterogeneity of nearshore environmental and drivers of growth. These G. pilosa chronologies provide unique multidecadal, continuous, biological time series to better understand the ecology and fine-scale variability of the Adriatic with potential for other shallow, semi-enclosed seas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crossbreeding has been used to improve performance in beef cattle, however the effects of breed composition on methane (CH4) production, yield and intensity from cattle raised in tropical intensive and integrated systems remain unknown. To assess the impact of breed composition on performance and methane emissions, Nellore (NEL; yr 1: BW = 171.5 ± 19.4 kg; n = 10; yr 2: BW = 215.8 ± 32.3 kg, n = 25) and Angus x Nellore crossbred (AN; yr 1: BW = 214.2 ± 26.4 kg, n = 10; yr 2: BW = 242.5 ± 32.2 kg, n = 25) were compared. The animals grazed on integrated crop-livestock system in the growing phase (stocking rate 2452 kg BW/ha, herbage mass 4,884 kg dry matter (DM)/ha, forage allowance 5.9 kg DM/100kg BW) and then were finished in a feedlot. Steers (n = 8) from each breed composition were randomly selected in each phase to measure CH4 production using a sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer technique and DM intake (DMI) using titanium dioxide. Compared with NEL, AN had both superior total gain and average daily gain (ADG) in the grazing period. The AN presented greater ADG in the feedlot with a shorter finishing period and resulted in greater carcass yield and carcass ADG. Methane production (kg/period) was lower in NEL (19% less) than AN in grazing (P<0.01), and no difference was observed in feedlot. The NEL had less CH4 intensity (CH4/BW) in grazing but greater CH4 per unit of ADG in the feedlot compared to AN. Breed composition did not influence the CH4 yield (CH4/DMI) in either phase, despite the difference in feedlot DMI (kg/day). In conclusion, crossbreeding may be an option to improve performance and reduce the CH4 per ADG in tropical climate conditions, resulting in lower methane emission per kg of meat produced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To tackle urban water issues, the Chinese government has promoted the construction of sponge cities in recent years. Thirty cities have been designated as experimental sites to serve as models for future sponge city construction, as more than 80% of the built-up urban areas in China must reach the standards of sponge cities by 2030. Greening plants play an important role in sponge cities, and water-use efficiency (WUE) is a vital index to determine whether plants could adapt to and grow healthily in environments with water deficits. In this study, WUE of greening plants was quantified by measuring the stable carbon isotope fractionation. Suitable plants for the green spaces in Guyuan sponge city, in northern China, were selected based on their WUE, and the main factors affecting WUE were studied in four habitats within the city. Plant species identity had the greatest effect on WUE, while habitat and plant life form had lower effect, illustrating that WUE is a relatively stable and reliable index for the classification of plant species. We can improve the WUE and ecological function of green spaces in sponge cities by using isotope technology to select suitable plant species with high WUE. To our knowledge, this study is the first to select plant species for sponge city by using this method, providing a quick and scientific method for the selection of greening plants for future sponge cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within urban landscape planning, debate continues around the relative merits of land-sharing (sprawl) and land-sparing (compaction) scenarios. Using three of the ten districts in Greater Manchester (UK) as a case-study, we present a landscape approach to mapping green infrastructure and variation in social-ecological-environmental conditions as a function of land sharing and sparing. We do so for the landscape as a whole and in a more focussed approach for areas of high and low urbanity. Results imply potential trade-offs between land-sharing-sparing scenarios relevant to characteristics critical to urban resilience such as landscape connectivity and diversity, air quality, surface temperature, and access to green space. These trade-offs are complex due to the parallel influence of patch attributes such as land-cover and size and imply that both ecological restoration and spatial planning have a role to play in reconciling tensions between land-sharing and sparing strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau is an important component of the global carbon cycle due to the large permafrost carbon pool and its vulnerability to climate warming. The Tibetan Plateau has experienced a noticeable warming over the past few decades and is projected to continue warming in the future. However, the direction and magnitude of carbon fluxes responses to climate change and elevated CO2 concentration under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios in the Tibetan Plateau grassland are poorly known. Here, we used a calibrated and validated biogeochemistry model, CENTURY, to quantify the contributions of climate change and elevated CO2 on the future carbon budget in the alpine grassland under three RCP scenarios. Though the Tibetan Plateau grassland was projected a net carbon sink of 16 ~ 25 Tg C yr-1 in the 21st century, the capacity of carbon sequestration was predicted to decrease gradually because climate-driven increases in heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (with linear slopes 0.49 ~ 1.62 g C m-2 yr-1) was greater than the net primary production (NPP) (0.35 ~ 1.52 g C m-2 yr-1). However, the elevated CO2 contributed more to plant growth (1.9% ~ 7.3%) than decomposition (1.7% ~ 6.1%), which could offset the warming-induced carbon loss. The interannual and decadal-scale dynamics of the carbon fluxes in the alpine grassland were primarily controlled by temperature, while the role of precipitation became increasingly important in modulating carbon cycle. The strengthened correlation between precipitation and carbon budget suggested that further research should consider the performance of precipitation in evaluating carbon dynamics in a warmer climate scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat’s emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4– based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500–4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre–to post–4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the perspective of Central and South America, the peopling of the New World was a complex process lasting thousands of years and involving multiple waves of Pleistocene and early Holocene period immigrants entering into the neotropics. These Paleoindian colonists initially brought with them technologies developed for adaptation to environments and resources found in North America. As the ice age ended across the New World people adapted more generalized stone tools to exploit changing environments and resources. In the neotropics these changes would have been pronounced as patchy forests and grasslands gave way to broadleaf tropical forests. We document a late Pleistocene/early Holocene stone tool tradition from Belize, located in southern Mesoamerica. This represents the first endogenous Paleoindian stone tool technocomplex recovered from well dated stratigraphic contexts for Mesoamerica. Previously designated Lowe, these artifacts share multiple features with contemporary North and South American Paleoindian tool types. Once hafted, these bifaces appear to have served multiple functions for cutting, hooking, thrusting, or throwing. The tools were developed at a time of technological regionalization reflecting the diverse demands of a period of pronounced environmental change and population movement. Combined stratigraphic, technological, and population paleogenetic data suggests that there were strong ties between lowland neotropic regions at the onset of the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change poses severe risks to human and natural systems, many young Canadian adults do not view it as a major issue. We analyzed secondary science curricula in each province for their coverage of climate change according to six core topics: physical climate mechanisms (“It’s climate”), observed increase in temperature (“It’s warming”), anthropogenic causes of warming (“It’s us”), scientific consensus (“Experts agree”), negative consequences associated with warming (“It’s bad”), and the possibility for avoiding the worst effects (“We can fix it”). We found that learning objectives tend to focus on knowledge of the first three elements, with little or no emphasis on scientific consensus, climate change impacts, or ways to address the issue. The provinces of Saskatchewan and Ontario provide the most comprehensive standards for climate change education, while Nova Scotia and New Brunswick provide the least. We conducted interviews with individuals responsible for curriculum design in six different provinces to understand how curriculum documents are developed and whether political controversies influence the writing process. Interviewees described a process relying on input from professionals, institutions, and members of the public where curriculum developers made decisions independent of political concerns. In some cases, efforts to provide balance may have led to a focus on social controversy, contrary to overwhelming scientific consensus. Curriculum documents are the basis for teacher instruction and textbook content; aligning these documents with the best possible evidence can improve student learning and engage the next generation of Canadians on the critical issue of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An iPhone 6 using the Avenza software for capturing horizontal positions was employed to understand relative positional accuracy in an urban environment, during two seasons of the year, two times of day, and two perceived WiFi usage periods. On average, time of year did not seem to influence the average error observed in horizontal positions when GPS-only (no WiFi) capability was enabled, nor when WiFi was enabled. Observations of average horizontal position error only seemed to improve with time of day (afternoon) during the leaf-off season. During each season and during each time of day, horizontal position error seemed to improve in general during perceived high WiFi usage periods (when more people were present). Overall average horizontal position accuracy of the iPhone 6 (7–13 m) is consistent with the general accuracy levels observed of recreation-grade GPS receivers in potential high multi-path environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing uncertainties in Earth System Model predictions requires carefully evaluating core model processes. Here we examined how canopy radiative transfer model (RTM) parameter uncertainties, in combination with canopy structure, affect terrestrial carbon and energy projections in a demographic land-surface model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). Our analyses focused on temperate deciduous forests and tested canopies of varying structural complexity. The results showed a strong sensitivity of tree productivity, albedo, and energy balance projections to RTM parameters. Impacts of radiative parameter uncertainty on stand-level canopy net primary productivity ranged from ~2 to > 20% and was most sensitive to canopy clumping and leaf reflectance/transmittance in the visible spectrum (~400–750 nm). ED2 canopy albedo varied by ~1 to ~10% and was most sensitive to near-infrared reflectance (~800–1200 nm). Bowen ratio, in turn, was most sensitive to wood optical properties parameterization; this was much larger than expected based on literature, suggesting model instabilities. In vertically and spatially complex canopies the model response to RTM parameterization may show an apparent reduced sensitivity when compared to simpler canopies, masking much larger changes occurring within the canopy. Our findings highlight both the importance of constraining canopy RTM parameters in models and valuating how the canopy structure responds to those parameter values. Finally, we advocate for more model evaluation, similar to this study, to highlight possible issues with model behavior or process representations, particularly models with demographic representations, and identify potential ways to inform and constrain model predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-related studies have generally focussed upon physiologically well-defined ‘mechanistic’ traits rather than ‘functional’ ones relating indirectly to resource capture. Nevertheless, field responses to climate are likely to typically include both ‘mechanistic’ specialization to climatic extremes and ‘functional’ strategies that optimize resource acquisition during less climatically-severe periods. Here, this hypothesis was tested. Seventeen traits (six ‘functional’, six ‘mechanistic’ and five ‘intermediate’) were measured from 19 populations of oleaster (wild olive) along a climatic gradient in Morocco. Principal components analysis of the trait dataset identified size and the ‘worldwide leaf economics spectrum’ as PCA axes 1 and 2. However, contrary to our prediction, these axes, and commonly-measured ‘functional’ traits, were little correlated with climate. Instead, PCA 3, perhaps relating to water-use and succulence, together stomatal density, specific leaf water content and leaf shape, patterned with altitude, aridity, rainfall and temperature. We concluded that, at least for slow-growing species, such as oleaster, ‘mechanistic’ traits are key to identifying mechanisms of climatic restriction. Meaningful collaboration between ‘mechanistic’ and ‘functional’ disciplines provides the best way of improving our understanding of the global impacts of climate change on species distribution and performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Car traffic in urban systems has been studied intensely in past decades but models are either limited to a specific aspect of traffic or applied to a specific region. Despite the importance and urgency of the problem we have a poor theoretical understanding of the parameters controlling urban car use and congestion. Here, we combine economical and transport ingredients into a statistical physics approach and propose a generic model that predicts for different cities the share of car drivers, the CO2 emitted by cars and the average commuting time. We confirm these analytical predictions on 25 major urban areas in the world, and our results suggest that urban density is not the most relevant variable controlling car-related quantities but rather are the city’s area size and the density of public transport. Mitigating the traffic (and its effect such as CO2 emissions) can then be obtained by reducing the urbanized area size or, more realistically, by improving either the public transport density or its access. In particular, increasing the population density is a good idea only if it also increases the fraction of individuals having access to public transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To study the relationship between the glazed pottery from southern China and the lead-glazed pottery in northern China in the Han Dynasty (202BC-220AD), 34 samples unearthed from Shangyu(上虞), Zhejiang Province have been studied by LA-ICP-AES, SEM/EDS and XRD. The results showed that these samples included the typical lead-glazed pottery, the proto-porcelain and the glazed pottery using both lead and calcium as glaze fluxing agents. Previously, the lead-glazed pottery type was considered as the main northern products during the Han dynasty while the calcium-glazed pottery type or the proto-porcelain was the representative of the south of China. However, apart from the two typical types above, a new variety of glaze categorized as the calcium-lead glaze was discovered in the samples from Shangyu. This indicates that there were technology exchanges and amalgamation of lead-glaze and calcium-glaze between the south and the north during the Han Dynasty. As a result, a new type of glazed potteries with both features was created, which had a more beautiful appearance than the proto-porcelain but perhaps had some undesirable aspects. The manufacturing process of the new variety might also lay foundations for the invention of celadon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work we analyze potential environmental drivers of malaria cases in Northwestern Argentina. We inspect causal links between malaria and climatic variables by means of the convergent cross mapping technique, which provides a causality criterion from the theory of dynamic systems. Analysis is based on 12 years of weekly malaria P. vivax cases in Tartagal, Salta, Argentina—at the southern fringe of malaria incidence in the Americas—together with humidity and temperature time-series spanning the same period. Our results show that there are causal links between malaria cases and both maximum temperature, with a delay of five weeks, and minimum temperature, with delays of zero and twenty two weeks. Humidity is also a driver of malaria cases, with thirteen weeks delay between cause and effect. Furthermore we also determined the sign and strength of the effects. Temperature has always a positive non-linear effect on cases, with maximum temperature effects more pronounced above 25°C and minimum above 17°C, while effects of humidity are more intricate: maximum humidity above 85% has a negative effect, whereas minimum humidity has a positive effect on cases. These results might be signaling processes operating at short (below 5 weeks) and long (over 12 weeks) time delays, corresponding to effects related to parasite cycle and mosquito population dynamics respectively. The non-linearities found for the strength of the effect of temperature on malaria cases make warmer areas more prone to higher increases in the disease incidence. Moreover, our results indicate that an increase of extreme weather events could enhance the risks of malaria spreading and re-emergence beyond the current distribution. Both situations, warmer climate and increase of extreme events, will be remarkably increased by the end of the century in this hot spot of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the ‘consensus gap’ between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid’s climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech’s climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assessed households’ resilience to climate change-induced shocks in Dinki watershed, northcentral highlands of Ethiopia. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted on 288 households, three focus group discussions, and 15 key informant interviews. The Climate Resilience Index (CRI) based on the three resilience capacities (absorptive, adaptive and transformative) frame was used to measure households’ resilience to climate change-induced shocks on an agro-ecological unit of analysis. A principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis were used to identify determinant factors and indicators to households’ resilience, respectively. Findings indicate that the indexed scores of major components clearly differentiated the study communities in terms of their agro-ecological zones. Specifically, the absorptive capacity (0.495) was the leading contributing factor to resilience followed by adaptive (0.449) and transformative (0.387) capacities. Likewise, the Midland was relatively more resilient with a mean index value of 0.461. Both the PCA and multiple regression analysis indicated that access to and use of livelihood resources, such as farmlands and livestock holdings, diversity of income sources, infrastructure and social capital were determinants of households’ resilience. In general, it might be due to their exposure to recurrent shocks coupled with limited adaptive capacities including underdeveloped public services, poor livelihood diversification practices, among others, the study communities showed minimal resilience capacity with a mean score of 0.44. Thus, in addition to short-term buffering strategies, intervention priority focusing on both adaptive and transformative capacities, particularly focusing on most vulnerable localities and constrained livelihood strategies, would contribute to ensuring long-term resilience in the study communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events affect the development and survival of disease pathogens and vectors. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of heat waves on the population dynamics of Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which is a major vector of dengue and Zika viruses. We modeled the population abundance of blood-fed mosquito adults based on a mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus with the consideration of diapause. Using simulated heat wave events derived from a 35-year historical dataset, we assessed how the mosquito population responded to different heat wave characteristics, including the onset day, duration, and the average temperature. Two important observations are made: (1) a heat wave event facilitates the population growth in the early development phase but tends to have an overall inhibitive effect; and (2) two primary factors affecting the development are the unusual onset time of a heat wave and a relatively high temperature over an extended period. We also performed a sensitivity analysis using different heat wave definitions, justifying the robustness of the findings. The study suggests that particular attention should be paid to future heat wave events with an abnormal onset time or a lasting high temperature in order to develop effective strategies to prevent and control Ae. albopictus-borne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the relationship between stock returns and local weather through a new channel—the influence of the air-cooling system installed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). To our knowledge, we are the first to employ the use of air conditioning to examine whether and how weather, especially excessively high temperature, and other factors affect stock returns. Using data for 1885–1914, we show that lower Dow Jones Average (DJA) returns were significantly associated with hotness before the NYSE trading rooms were equipped with the cooling system in 1903, whereas this correlation is largely weakened afterward. We also find that before the introduction of the air-cooling system, the negative effect of high temperatures on stock returns was stronger when the precipitation was lower. We obtain consistent results when controlling for the calendar anomalies such as the May-to-October effect, the Monday effect, and the effect of macroeconomic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various models and datasets related to aflatoxins in the maize and dairy production chain have been developed and used but they have not yet been linked with each other. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on aflatoxin B1 production in maize and its consequences on aflatoxin M1 contamination in dairy cow’s milk, using a full chain modelling approach. To this end, available models and input data were chained together in a modelling framework. As a case study, we focused on maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands to be fed–as part of dairy cows’ compound feed–to dairy cows in the Netherlands. Three different climate models, one aflatoxin B1 prediction model and five different carryover models were used. For this particular case study of East European maize, most of the calculations suggest an increase (up to 50%) of maximum mean aflatoxin M1 in milk by 2030, except for one climate (DMI) model suggesting a decrease. Results from all combinations of carryover and climate models suggest a similar or slight increase (up to 0.6%) of the chance of finding aflatoxin M1 in milk above the EC limit of 0.05 μg/kg by 2030. Results varied mainly with the climate model data and carryover model considered. The model framework infrastructure is flexible so that forecasting models for other mycotoxins or other food safety hazards as well as other production chains, together with necessary input databases, can easily be included as well. This modelling framework for the first time links datasets and models related to aflatoxin B1 in maize and related aflatoxin M1 the dairy production chain to obtain a unique predictive methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. Such an integrated approach with scenario analysis provides possibilities for policy makers and risk managers to study the effects of changes in the beginning of the chain on the end product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An Inverse Heat Transfer Problem is solved for a sounding rocket module given its geometry and measured temperature profile. The solution is obtained via moving window optimization, a technique for solving inverse dynamics. An analysis is performed to modify the method to avoid oscillatory behavior of the resulting heat flux profile. The method parameters are tuned in relation to characteristic phases of the flight. Results are presented and correlated with measured flight data. Conclusions are drawn for better experiments for measuring heat flux on a sounding rocket skin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the period 1982–2015, temperatures have exhibited an asymmetric warming pattern diurnally, as well as seasonally across the Loess Plateau. However, very limited research has studied the implications and effects of such seasonally heterogeneous warming across the Loess Plateau. In this study, we also analyzed the time series trends and seasonal spatial patterns of the maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures and evaluated how different vegetation responded to daytime and nighttime warming in the Loess Plateau from 1982 to 2015 based on the NDVI and meteorological parameters (precipitation or temperature). We found that Tmax and Tmin significantly increased throughout the years except for Tmax in autumn, and the diurnal asymmetric warming showed some striking seasonal differences. For example, the increasing rates of Tmin in spring, summer, autumn, and winter were 0.75, 1.20, 1.88, and 1.10 times larger than that of Tmax, respectively. NDVI showed significantly positive correlation with Tmax and Tmin in spring and winter, while NDVI presented significantly positive correlation with Tmin in summer and Tmax in autumn across entire Loess Plateau. Furthermore, we also discovered diverse seasonal responses in terms of vegetation types to daytime and nighttime warming. For instance, Spring NDVI showed significantly positive partial correlations with Tmax and Tmin. In summer, grasslands and wetlands merely displayed significantly positive partial correlations with Tmin. Cultivated land presented significantly positive partial correlation between the NDVI and Tmax (Tmin) in autumn. In winter, cultivated land, forest, and grassland exhibited significantly positive partial correlation with Tmax and Tmin, while only wetland showed a significantly positive partial correlation with Tmax. Our results demonstrated responses of vegetation to climate extremes and enhance a better understanding of the seasonally different responses of vegetation under global climate change at different scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean acidification (O.A.) influences the ecology of oceans and it may impact plant-animal interactions at various levels. Seagrass meadows located at acidified vents in the Bay of Naples (Italy) are considered an open window to forecast the effects of global-changes on aquatic communities. Epiphytic diatoms of the genus Cocconeis are abundant in seagrass meadows, including acidified environments, where they play key ecological roles. A still-unknown apoptogenic compound produced by Cocconeis triggers the suicide of the androgenic gland of Hippolyte inermis Leach 1816, a protandric hermaphroditic shrimp distributed in P. oceanica meadows located both at normal pH and in acidified vents. Feeding on Cocconeis sp. was proven important for the stability of the shrimp’s natural populations. Since O.A. affects the physiology of diatoms, we investigated if, in future scenarios of O.A., Cocconeis scutellum parva will still produce an effect on shrimp’s physiology. Cell densities of Cocconeis scutellum parva cultivated in custom-designed photobioreactors at two pH conditions (pH 7.7 and 8.2) were compared. In addition, we determined the effects of the ingestion of diatoms on the process of sex reversal of H. inermis and we calculated the % female on the total of mature individuals-1 (F/mat). We observed significant differences in cell densities of C. scutellum parva at the two pH conditions. In fact, the highest cell densities (148,808 ±13,935 cells. mm-2) was obtained at day 13 (pH 7.7) and it is higher than the highest cell densities (38,066 (±4,166) cells. mm-2, day 13) produced at pH 8.2. Diatoms cultured at acidified conditions changed their metabolism. In fact, diatoms grown in acidified conditions produced in H. inermis a proportion of females (F/mat 36.3 ±5.9%) significantly lower than diatoms produced at normal pH (68.5 ±2.8), and it was not significantly different from that elicited by negative controls (31.7 ±5.6%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many woody dicot plant species, colder temperatures correlate with a greater degree of leaf dissection and with larger and more abundant leaf teeth (the serrated edges along margins). The measurement of site-mean characteristics of leaf size and shape (physiognomy), including leaf dissection and tooth morphology, has been an important paleoclimate tool for over a century. These physiognomic-based climate proxies require that all woody dicot plants at a site, regardless of species, change their leaf shape rapidly and predictably in response to temperature. Here we experimentally test these assumptions by growing five woody species in growth cabinets under two temperatures (17 and 25°C). In keeping with global site-based patterns, plants tend to develop more dissected leaves with more abundant and larger leaf teeth in the cool treatment. Overall, this upholds the assumption that leaf shape responds in a particular direction to temperature change. The assumption that leaf shape variables respond to temperature in the same way regardless of species did not hold because the responses varied by species. Leaf physiognomic models for inferring paleoclimate should take into account these species-specific responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil pH is a key factor that controls soil nutrient availability, soil microbial activities, and crop growth and development. However, studies on the soil pH variations of cultivated lands in different horizons at the regional scale remain limited. In this work, 348 soil samples were collected from three soil horizons (A, B, and C) at 120 sites over the hilly region of Chongqing, southwestern China. Six topographic indicators, four climate parameters, and parent material were considered. Classification and regression trees (CARTs) were applied to investigate the relationships between soil pH and the variables in the A, B, and C horizons. Model performances were evaluated by root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Results showed that soil pH increased obviously from the A to C horizons. Soil pH was predicted well by the forcing factors with the CART models in all horizons. RMSE, RRMSE, and R2 varied between 0.37 and 0.435, between 5.93 and 7.23%, and between 0.71 and 0.80, respectively. The relative importance of the studied variables to soil pH differed with the horizons. Annual temperature range (ATR), terrain wetness index (TWI), and Melton ruggedness number were critical factors that controlled soil pH variability in the A horizon. Parent material, precipitation of warmest quarter (PWQ), ATR, and TWI were important variables in the B horizon. Parent material, PWQ, ATR, and precipitation were key factors in the C horizon. The results are expected to provide valuable information for designing appropriate measurements for agricultural practices and preventing soil acidification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk assessment regarding the distribution of malaria vectors and environmental variables underpinning their distribution under changing climates is crucial towards malaria control and eradication. On this basis, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model to estimate the potential future distribution of major transmitters of malaria in Nigeria—Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings: Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis under low and high emissions scenarios. In the model, we used mosquito occurrence data sampled from 1900 to 2010 alongside land use and terrain variables, and bioclimatic variables for baseline climate 1960–1990 and future climates of 2050s (2041–2060) and 2070s (2061–2080) that follow RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Anopheles gambiae species are projected to experience large shift in potential range and population with increased distribution density, higher under high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and 2070s than low emission scenario (RCP2.6) and 2050s. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis are projected to have highest invasion with 47–70% and 10–14% percentage increase, respectively in Sahel and Sudan savannas within northern states in 2041–2080 under RCP8.5. Highest prevalence is predicted for Humid forest and Derived savanna in southern and North Central states in 2041–2080; 91–96% and 97–99% for Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and 67–71% and 72–75% for Anopheles arabiensis under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The higher magnitude of change in species prevalence predicted for the later part of the 21st century under high emission scenario, driven mainly by increasing and fluctuating temperature, alongside longer seasonal tropical rainfall accompanied by drier phases and inherent influence of rapid land use change, may lead to more significant increase in malaria burden when compared with other periods and scenarios during the century; especially in Humid forest, Derived savanna, Sahel and Sudan savannas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum were geographically constrained to glacial refugia by the severity of the climate and ecological risk factors. In this research we use an agent-based model of human mobility and interaction, based on ethnographic and archaeological data, to explore the impact of ecological risk on human population structure via a reconstructed landscape of habitat suitability. The agent-based model allows us to evaluate the size and location of glacial refugia, the size of the populations occupying them and the degree of genetic relatedness between people occupying these areas. To do this, we model the probability of an agent foraging groups’ survival as a function of habitat suitability. The model’s simulated “genomes” (composed of regionally specific genetic markers) allow us to track long-term trends of inter-regional interaction and mobility. The results agree with previous archaeological studies situating a large glacial refugium spanning southern France and northeastern Spain, but we expand on those studies by demonstrating that higher rates of population growth in this central refugium led to continuous out-migration and therefore genetic homogeneity across Western Europe, with the possible exception of the Italian peninsula. These results concur with material culture data from known archaeological sites dating to the Last Glacial Maximum and make predictions for future ancient DNA studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The increase in the frequency of extreme events due to climate change poses a serious challenge to achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 2 of ending hunger by 2030. While evidence exists on the impact of drought on under-five children, its effect during late childhood and early adolescence remains less investigated. Objective: This study estimates the impact of concurrent and long-term exposure to drought on linear growth during late childhood and early adolescence. Methods: Four rounds (2002–2013) of data from the young lives Cohort Study dataset (n = 2000) was used. The associations of concurrent and long-term exposure to drought and Height-for-age z-score was analysed using structural equation modelling techniques. The study also explored the mediating role of interim period growth in the association of early exposure to drought and undernutrition at later age and the role of the Productive Safety Net Program in buffering the impact of drought on child nutrition. Results: Results show that both concurrent and long-term exposure to drought was negatively associated with Height-for-age z-score (p < 0.001). Exposure to drought at age 5, 8, and 12 years is associated with lower Height-for-age z- score at age 5, 8, and 12 years respectively. Exposure to drought at age 5 years was also negatively associated with Height-for-age z-score at age 12 years (p < 0.001). This association was mainly indirect (89%) and mediated through reduced child growth in subsequent years. Participation in productive safety net program by drought-affected children reduces but does not completely offset the negative effects of drought on Height-for-age z-score (p < 0.1). Moreover, girls were more likely to suffer poor growth than boys. Conclusion: Drought exposure after the 1,000 days window could have a lasting impact on child growth. Given the importance of this period for child physical and mental development, children beyond the 1,000 days window should also be a focus of disaster relief programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing interest to restore oyster populations and develop oyster reefs for their role in ecosystem health and delivery of ecosystem services. Successful and sustainable oyster restoration efforts largely depend on the availability and selection of suitable sites that can support long-term growth and survival of oysters. Hence, in the present study a habitat suitability index (HSI) model was developed for the intertidal rock oyster (Saccostrea cucullata), with special attention: (1) to the role of the monsoon in the suitability of oyster habitats, and (2) to identify potential suitable sites along the south-eastern Bangladesh coast. Seven habitat factors were used as input variables for the HSI model: (1) water temperature; (2) salinity; (3) dissolved oxygen; (4) particulate inorganic matter (PIM); (5) pH; (6) Chlorophyll-a; and (7) water flow velocity. Seven field surveys were conducted at 80 locations to collect geo-spatial environmental data, which were then used to determine HSI scores using habitat suitability functions. The model results showed that the areas suitable (HSI >0.50) for oyster settlement and growth were characterized by relatively high salinities, Chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen and pH values. In contrast, freshwater dominated estuaries and nearby coastal areas with high suspended sediment were found less suitable (HSI <0.50) for oysters. HSI model results were validated with observed oyster distribution data. There was strong correlation between the HSI calculated by the model and observed oyster densities (r = 0.87; n = 53), shell height (r = 0.95; n = 53) and their condition index (r = 0.98; n = 53). The good correspondence with field data enhances the applicability of the HSI model as a quantitative tool for evaluating the quality of a site for oyster restoration and culture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Avian cavity nesters (ACN) are viable indicators of forest structure, composition, and diversity. Utilizing these species responses in multi-disciplinary climate-avian-forest modeling can improve climate adaptive management. We propose a framework for integrating and evaluating climate-avian-forest models by linking two ACN niche models with a forest landscape model (FLM), LANDIS-II. The framework facilitates the selection of available ACN models for integration, evaluation of model transferability, and evaluation of successful integration of ACN models with a FLM. We found selecting a model for integration depended on its transferability to the study area (Northern Rockies Ecoregion of Idaho in the United States), which limited the species and model types available for transfer. However, transfer evaluation of the tested ACN models indicated a good fit for the study area. Several niche model variables (canopy cover, snag density, and forest cover type) were not directly informed by the LANDIS-II model, which required secondary modeling (Random Forest) to derive values from the FLM outputs. In instances where the Random Forest models performed with a moderate classification accuracy, the overall effect on niche predictions was negligible. Predictions based on LANDIS-II simulations performed similarly to predictions based on the niche model’s original training input types. This supported the conclusion that the proposed framework is viable for informing avian niche models with FLM simulations. Even models that poorly approximate habitat suitability, due to the inherent constraints of predicting spatial niche use of irruptive species produced informative results by identifying areas of management focus. This is primarily because LANDIS-II estimates spatially explicit variables that were unavailable over large spatial extents from alternative datasets. Thus, without integration, one of the ACN niche models was not applicable to the study area. The framework will be useful for integrating avifauna niche and forest ecosystem models, which can inform management of contemporary and future landscapes under differing management and climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mongolian Gobi-Eastern Steppe Ecosystem is one of the largest remaining natural drylands and home to a unique assemblage of migratory ungulates. Connectivity and integrity of this ecosystem are at risk if increasing human activities are not carefully planned and regulated. The Gobi part supports the largest remaining population of the Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus; locally called “khulan”). Individual khulan roam over areas of thousands of square kilometers and the scale of their movements is among the largest described for terrestrial mammals, making them particularly difficult to monitor. Although GPS satellite telemetry makes it possible to track animals in near-real time and remote sensing provides environmental data at the landscape scale, remotely collected data also harbors the risk of missing important abiotic or biotic environmental variables or life history events. We tested the potential of animal born camera systems (“camera collars”) to improve our understanding of the drivers and limitations of khulan movements. Deployment of a camera collar on an adult khulan mare resulted in 7,881 images over a one-year period. Over half of the images showed other khulan and 1,630 images showed enough of the collared khulan to classify the behaviour of the animals seen into several main categories. These khulan images provided us with: i) new insights into important life history events and grouping dynamics, ii) allowed us to calculate time budgets for many more animals than the collared khulan alone, and iii) provided us with a training dataset for calibrating data from accelerometer and tilt sensors in the collar. The images also allowed to document khulan behaviour near infrastructure and to obtain a day-time encounter rate between a specific khulan with semi-nomadic herders and their livestock. Lastly, the images allowed us to ground truth the availability of water by: i) confirming waterpoints predicted from other analyses, ii) detecting new waterpoints, and iii) compare precipitation records for rain and snow from landscape scale climate products with those documented by the camera collar. We discuss the added value of deploying camera collars on a subset of animals in remote, highly variable ecosystems for research and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sister centromere fusion is a process unique to meiosis that promotes co-orientation of the sister kinetochores, ensuring they attach to microtubules from the same pole during metaphase I. We have found that the kinetochore protein SPC105R/KNL1 and Protein Phosphatase 1 (PP1-87B) regulate sister centromere fusion in Drosophila oocytes. The analysis of these two proteins, however, has shown that two independent mechanisms maintain sister centromere fusion. Maintenance of sister centromere fusion by SPC105R depends on Separase, suggesting cohesin proteins must be maintained at the core centromeres. In contrast, maintenance of sister centromere fusion by PP1-87B does not depend on either Separase or Wapl. Instead, PP1-87B maintains sister centromeres fusion by regulating microtubule dynamics. We demonstrate that this regulation is through antagonizing Polo kinase and BubR1, two proteins known to promote stability of kinetochore-microtubule (KT-MT) attachments, suggesting that PP1-87B maintains sister centromere fusion by inhibiting stable KT-MT attachments. Surprisingly, C(3)G, the transverse element of the synaptonemal complex (SC), is also required for centromere separation in Pp1-87B RNAi oocytes. This is evidence for a functional role of centromeric SC in the meiotic divisions, that might involve regulating microtubule dynamics. Together, we propose two mechanisms maintain co-orientation in Drosophila oocytes: one involves SPC105R to protect cohesins at sister centromeres and another involves PP1-87B to regulate spindle forces at end-on attachments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar energy is a major type of renewable energy, and its estimation is important for decision-makers. This study introduces a new prediction model for solar radiation based on support vector regression (SVR) and the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm. The new version of algorithm attempts to enhance the global search ability for the PSO. In practice, the SVR method has a few parameters that should be determined through a trial-and-error procedure while developing the prediction model. This procedure usually leads to non-optimal choices for these parameters and, hence, poor prediction accuracy. Therefore, there is a need to integrate the SVR model with an optimization algorithm to achieve optimal choices for these parameters. Thus, the IPSO algorithm, as an optimizer is integrated with SVR to obtain optimal values for the SVR parameters. To examine the proposed model, two solar radiation stations, Adana, Antakya and Konya, in Turkey, are considered for this study. In addition, different models have been tested for this prediction, namely, the M5 tree model (M5T), genetic programming (GP), SVR integrated with four different optimization algorithms SVR-PSO, SVR-IPSO, Genetic Algorithm (SVR-GA), FireFly Algorithm (SVR-FFA) and the multivariate adaptive regression (MARS) model. The sensitivity analysis is performed to achieve the highest accuracy level of the prediction by choosing different input parameters. Several performance measuring indices have been considered to examine the efficiency of all the prediction methods. The results show that SVR-IPSO outperformed M5T and MARS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting reference evapotranspiration (ET0) with limited climatic data is crucial for irrigation scheduling design and agricultural water management. This study evaluated eight machine learning models in four categories, i.e. neuron-based (MLP, GRNN and ANFIS), kernel-based (SVM, KNEA), tree-based (M5Tree, XGBoost) and curve-based (MARS) models, for predicting daily ET0 with maximum/maximum temperature and precipitation data during 2001–2015 from 14 stations in various climatic regions of China, i.e., arid desert of northwest China (NWC), semi-arid steppe of Inner Mongolia (IM), Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), (semi-)humid cold-temperate northeast China (NEC), semi-humid warm-temperate north China (NC), humid subtropical central China (CC) and humid tropical south China (SC). The results showed machine learning models using only temperature data obtained satisfactory daily ET0 estimates (on average R2 = 0.829, RMSE = 0.718 mm day−1, NRMSE = 0.250 and MAE = 0.508 mm day−1). The prediction accuracy was improved by 7.6% across China when information of precipitation was further considered, particularly in (sub)tropical humid regions (by 9.7% in CC and 12.4% in SC). The kernel-based SVM, KNEA and curve-based MARS models generally outperformed the others in terms of prediction accuracy, with the best performance by KNEA in NWC and IM, by SVM in QTP, CC and SC, and very similar performance by them in NEC and NC. SVM (1.9%), MLP (2.0%), MARS (2.6%) and KNEA (6.4%) showed relatively small average increases in RMSE during testing compared with training RMSE. SVM is highly recommended for predicting daily ET0 across China in light of best accuracy and stability, while KNEA and MARS are also promising powerful models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in irrigated agriculture. The objective of this study is to simulate monthly ET0 at a meteorological station in India using a new method, an improved support vector machine (SVM) based on the cuckoo algorithm (CA), which is known as SVM-CA. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine hours were selected as inputs for the models used in the simulation. The results of the simulation using SVM-CA were compared with those from experimental models, genetic programming (GP), model tree (M5T) and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The achieved results demonstrate that the proposed SVM-CA model is able to simulate ET0 more accurately than the GP, M5T and ANFIS models. Two major indicators, namely, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), indicated that the SVM-CA outperformed the other methods with respective reductions of 5–15% and 5–17% compared with the GP model, 12–21% and 10–22% compared with the M5T model, and 7–15% and 5–18% compared with the ANFIS model, respectively. Therefore, the proposed SVM-CA model has high potential for accurate simulation of monthly ET0 values compared with the other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adaptability of our species, as revealed by the geographic routes and palaeoenvironmental contexts of human dispersal beyond Africa, is a prominent topic in archaeology and palaeoanthropology. Northern and Central Asia have largely been neglected as it has been assumed that the deserts and mountain ranges of these regions acted as ‘barriers’, forcing human populations to arc north into temperate and arctic Siberia. Here, we test this proposition by constructing Least Cost Path models of human dispersal under glacial and interstadial conditions between prominent archaeological sites in Central and East Asia. Incorporating information from palaeoclimatic, palaeolake, and archaeological data, we demonstrate that regions such as the Gobi Desert and the Altai Mountain chains could have periodically acted as corridors and routes for human dispersals and framing biological interactions between hominin populations. Review of the archaeological datasets in these regions indicates the necessity of wide-scale archaeological survey and excavations in many poorly documented parts of Eurasia. We argue that such work is likely to highlight the ‘northern routes’ of human dispersal as variable, yet crucial, foci for understanding the extreme adaptive plasticity characteristic of the emergence of Homo sapiens as a global species, as well as the cultural and biological hybridization of the diverse hominin species present in Asia during the Late Pleistocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]