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One of the main strategies to control the spread of infectious animal diseases is the implementation of movement restrictions. This paper shows a loss in efficiency of the movement restriction policy (MRP) when behavioral responses of farmers are taken into account. Incorporating the strategic behavior of farmers in an epidemiologic model reveals that the MRP can trigger premature animal sales by farms at high risk of becoming infected that significantly reduce the efficacy of the policy. The results are validated in a parameterized network via Monte Carlo simulations and measures to mitigate the loss of efficiency of the MRP are discussed. Financial aid to farmers can be justified by public health concerns, not only for equity. This paper contributes to developing an interdisciplinary analytical framework regarding the expansion of infectious diseases combining economic and epidemiologic dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development.Methods and Findings: The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million) in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children ages 3 and 4 y), followed by South Asia (27.7 million; 37.7%) and the East Asia and Pacific region (15.1 million; 25.9%). Positive associations were found between low development scores and stunting, poverty, male sex, rural residence, and lack of cognitive stimulation. Additional research using more detailed developmental assessments across a larger number of LMICs is needed to address the limitations of the present study.Conclusions: The number of children globally failing to reach their developmental potential remains large. Additional research is needed to identify the specific causes of poor developmental outcomes in diverse settings, as well as potential context-specific interventions that might promote children's early cognitive and socioemotional well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classification of pollen species and types is an important task in many areas like forensic palynology, archaeological palynology and melissopalynology. This paper presents the first annotated image dataset for the Brazilian Savannah pollen types that can be used to train and test computer vision based automatic pollen classifiers. A first baseline human and computer performance for this dataset has been established using 805 pollen images of 23 pollen types. In order to access the computer performance, a combination of three feature extractors and four machine learning techniques has been implemented, fine tuned and tested. The results of these tests are also presented in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In order to adapt to societal changes, healthcare systems need to switch from a disease orientation to a patient-centered approach. Virtual patient networks are a promising tool to favor this switch and much can be learned from the open and user innovation literature where the involvement of online user communities in the innovation process is well-documented. Objectives: The objectives of this study were 1) to describe the use of online communities as a tool to capture and harness innovative ideas of end users or consumers; and 2) to point to the potential value and challenges of these virtual platforms to function as a tool to inform and promote patient-centered care in the context of chronic health conditions. Methods: A scoping review was conducted. A total of seven databases were searched for scientific articles published in English between 1995 and 2014. The search strategy was refined through an iterative process. Results: A total of 144 studies were included in the review. Studies were coded inductively according to their research focus to identify groupings of papers. The first set of studies focused on the interplay of factors related to user roles, motivations, and behaviors that shape the innovation process within online communities. Studies of the second set examined the role of firms in online user innovation initiatives, identifying different organizational strategies and challenges. The third set of studies focused on the idea selection process and measures of success with respect to online user innovation initiatives. Finally, the findings from the review are presented in the light of the particularities and challenges discussed in current healthcare research. Conclusion: The present paper highlights the potential of virtual patient communities to inform and promote patient-centered care, describes the key challenges involved in this process, and makes recommendations on how to address them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Innovation systems are sometimes referred to as complex systems, something that is intuitively understood but poorly defined. A complex system dynamically evolves in non-linear ways giving it unique properties that distinguish it from other systems. In particular, a common signature of complex systems is scale-invariant emergent properties. A scale-invariant property can be identified because it is solely described by a power law function, f(x) = kxα, where the exponent, α, is a measure of scale-invariance. The focus of this paper is to describe and illustrate that innovation systems have properties of a complex adaptive system. In particular scale-invariant emergent properties indicative of their complex nature that can be quantified and used to inform public policy. The global research system is an example of an innovation system. Peer-reviewed publications containing knowledge are a characteristic output. Citations or references to these articles are an indirect measure of the impact the knowledge has on the research community. Peer-reviewed papers indexed in Scopus and in the Web of Science were used as data sources to produce measures of sizes and impact. These measures are used to illustrate how scale-invariant properties can be identified and quantified. It is demonstrated that the distribution of impact has a reasonable likelihood of being scale-invariant with scaling exponents that tended toward a value of less than 3.0 with the passage of time and decreasing group sizes. Scale-invariant correlations are shown between the evolution of impact and size with time and between field impact and sizes at points in time. The recursive or self-similar nature of scale-invariance suggests that any smaller innovation system within the global research system is likely to be complex with scale-invariant properties too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sand production and blockage are common during the drilling and production of horizontal oil and gas wells as a result of formation breakdown. The use of high-pressure rotating jets and annular helical flow is an effective way to enhance horizontal wellbore cleanout. In this paper, we propose the idea of using supercritical CO2 (SC-CO2) as washing fluid in water-sensitive formation. SC-CO2 is manifested to be effective in preventing formation damage and enhancing production rate as drilling fluid, which justifies tis potential in wellbore cleanout. In order to investigate the effectiveness of SC-CO2 helical flow cleanout, we perform the numerical study on the annular flow field, which significantly affects sand cleanout efficiency, of SC-CO2 jets in horizontal wellbore. Based on the field data, the geometry model and mathematical models were built. Then a numerical simulation of the annular helical flow field by SC-CO2 jets was accomplished. The influences of several key parameters were investigated, and SC-CO2 jets were compared to conventional water jets. The results show that flow rate, ambient temperature, jet temperature, and nozzle assemblies play the most important roles on wellbore flow field. Once the difference between ambient temperatures and jet temperatures is kept constant, the wellbore velocity distributions will not change. With increasing lateral nozzle size or decreasing rear/forward nozzle size, suspending ability of SC-CO2 flow improves obviously. A back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) was successfully employed to match the operation parameters and SC-CO2 flow velocities. A comprehensive model was achieved to optimize the operation parameters according to two strategies: cost-saving strategy and local optimal strategy. This paper can help to understand the distinct characteristics of SC-CO2 flow. And it is the first time that the BP-ANN is introduced to analyze the flow field during wellbore cleanout in horizontal wells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent PLOS ONE paper, we conducted an evidence-based analysis of current versus historical fire regimes and concluded that traditionally defined reference conditions of low-severity fire regimes for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and mixed-conifer forests were incomplete, missing considerable variability in forest structure and fire regimes. Stevens et al. (this issue) agree that high-severity fire was a component of these forests, but disagree that one of the several sources of evidence, stand age from a large number of forest inventory and analysis (FIA) plots across the western USA, support our findings that severe fire played more than a minor role ecologically in these forests. Here we highlight areas of agreement and disagreement about past fire, and analyze the methods Stevens et al. used to assess the FIA stand-age data. We found a major problem with a calculation they used to conclude that the FIA data were not useful for evaluating fire regimes. Their calculation, as well as a narrowing of the definition of high-severity fire from the one we used, leads to a large underestimate of conditions consistent with historical high-severity fire. The FIA stand age data do have limitations but they are consistent with other landscape-inference data sources in supporting a broader paradigm about historical variability of fire in ponderosa and mixed-conifer forests than had been traditionally recognized, as described in our previous PLOS paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important factor for improving recommendations, time information has been introduced to model users’ dynamic preferences in many papers. However, the sequence of users’ behaviour is rarely studied in recommender systems. Due to the users’ unique behavior evolution patterns and personalized interest transitions among items, users’ similarity in sequential dimension should be introduced to further distinguish users’ preferences and interests. In this paper, we propose a new collaborative filtering recommendation method based on users’ interest sequences (IS) that rank users’ ratings or other online behaviors according to the timestamps when they occurred. This method extracts the semantics hidden in the interest sequences by the length of users’ longest common sub-IS (LCSIS) and the count of users’ total common sub-IS (ACSIS). Then, these semantics are utilized to obtain users’ IS-based similarities and, further, to refine the similarities acquired from traditional collaborative filtering approaches. With these updated similarities, transition characteristics and dynamic evolution patterns of users’ preferences are considered. Our new proposed method was compared with state-of-the-art time-aware collaborative filtering algorithms on datasets MovieLens, Flixster and Ciao. The experimental results validate that the proposed recommendation method is effective and outperforms several existing algorithms in the accuracy of rating prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Articles from open access and local journals are important resources for research in Korea and the usage trends of these articles are important indicators for the assessment of the current research practice. We analyzed an institutional collection of published papers from 1998 to 2014 authored by researchers from Seoul National University, and their references from papers published between 1998 and 2011. The published papers were collected from Web of Science or Scopus and were analyzed according to the proportion of articles from open access journals. Their cited references from published papers in Web of Science were analyzed according to the proportion of local (South Korean) or open access journals. The proportion of open access papers was relatively stable until 2006 (2.5 ~ 5.2% in Web of Science and 2.7 ~ 4.2% in Scopus), but then increased to 15.9% (Web of Science) or 18.5% (Scopus) in 2014. We analyzed 2,750,485 cited references from 52,295 published papers. We found that the overall proportion of cited articles from local journals was 1.8% and that for open access journals was 3.0%. Citations of open access articles have increased since 2006 to 4.1% in 2011, although the increase in open access article citations was less than for open access publications. The proportion of citations from local journals was even lower. We think that the publishing / citing mismatch is a term to describe this difference, which is an issue at Seoul National University, where the number of published papers at open access or local journals is increasing but the number of citations is not. The cause of this discrepancy is multi-factorial but the governmental / institutional policies, social / cultural issues and authors' citing behaviors will explain the mismatch. However, additional measures are also necessary, such as the development of an institutional citation database and improved search capabilities with respect to local and open access documents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In biomedicine, scientific literature is a valuable source for knowledge discovery. Mining knowledge from textual data has become an ever important task as the volume of scientific literature is growing unprecedentedly. In this paper, we propose a framework for examining a certain disease based on existing information provided by scientific literature. Disease-related entities that include diseases, drugs, and genes are systematically extracted and analyzed using a three-level network-based approach. A paper-entity network and an entity co-occurrence network (macro-level) are explored and used to construct six entity specific networks (meso-level). Important diseases, drugs, and genes as well as salient entity relations (micro-level) are identified from these networks. Results obtained from the literature-based literature mining can serve to assist clinical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation is a crucial biological function possessed by many sensory systems. Early work has shown that some influential equilibrium models can achieve accurate adaptation. However, recent studies indicate that there are close relationships between adaptation and nonequilibrium. In this paper, we provide an explanation of these two seemingly contradictory results based on Markov models with relatively simple networks. We show that as the nonequilibrium driving becomes stronger, the system under consideration will undergo a phase transition along a fixed direction: from non-adaptation to simple adaptation then to oscillatory adaptation, while the transition in the opposite direction is forbidden. This indicates that although adaptation may be observed in equilibrium systems, it tends to occur in systems far away from equilibrium. In addition, we find that nonequilibrium will improve the performance of adaptation by enhancing the adaptation efficiency. All these results provide a deeper insight into the connection between adaptation and nonequilibrium. Finally, we use a more complicated network model of bacterial chemotaxis to validate the main results of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There appears to be little doubt as to the existence of an intentional technological resolve to produce convergent tools during the Middle Palaeolithic. However, the use of these pieces as pointed tools is still subject to debate: i.e., handheld tool vs. hafted tool. Present-day technological analysis has begun to apply new methodologies in order to quantify shape variability and to decipher the role of the morphology of these pieces in relation to function; for instance, geometric morphometric analyses have recently been applied with successful results. This paper presents a study of this type of analysis on 37 convergent tools from level Ga of Payre site (France), dated to MIS 8–7. These pieces are non-standardized knapping products produced by discoidal and orthogonal core technologies. Moreover, macro-wear studies attest to various activities on diverse materials with no evidence of hafting or projectile use. The aim of this paper is to test the geometric morphometric approach on non-standardized artefacts applying the Elliptical Fourier analysis (EFA) to 3D contours and to assess the potential relationship between size and shape, technology and function. This study is innovative in that it is the first time that this method, considered to be a valuable complement for describing technological and functional attributes, is applied to 3D contours of lithic products. Our results show that this methodology ensures a very good degree of accuracy in describing shape variations of the sharp edges of technologically non-standardized convergent tools. EFA on 3D contours indicates variations in deviations of the outline along the third dimension (i.e., dorso-ventrally) and yields quantitative and insightful information on the actual shape variations of tools. Several statistically significant relationships are found between shape variation and use-wear attributes, though the results emphasize the large variability of the shape of the convergent tools, which, in general, does not show a strong direct association with technological features and function. This is in good agreement with the technological context of this chronological period, characterized by a wide diversity of non-standardized tools adapted to multipurpose functions for varied subsistence activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: How can we explain the uneven decline of syphilis around the world following the introduction of penicillin? In this paper we use antenatal syphilis prevalence (ASP) to investigate how syphilis prevalence varied worldwide in the past century, and what risk factors correlate with this variance. Methods: 1) A systematic review using PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted to identify countries with published data relating to ASP estimates from before 1952 until the present. Eleven countries were identified (Canada, Denmark, Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK) and Zimbabwe). The ASP epidemic curve for each population was depicted graphically. In South Africa and the USA, results are reported separately for the black and white populations. 2) National antenatal syphilis prevalence estimates for 1990 to 1999 and 2008 were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low risk populations compiled for the Global Burden of Diseases study and from a recent review paper respectively. National ASPs were depicted graphically and regional median ASPs were calculated for both time periods. 3) Linear regression was used to test for an association between ASP in 1990–1999 and 2008 and four risk factors (efficacy of syphilis screening/treatment, health expenditure, GDP per capita and circumcision prevalence). WHO world regions were included as potential explanatory variables. Results: In most populations, ASP dropped to under 1% before 1960. In Zimbabwe and black South Africans, ASP was high in the pre-penicillin period, dropped in the post-penicillin period, but then plateaued at around 6% until the end of the 20th century when ASP dropped to just above 1%. In black Americans, ASP declined in the post penicillin period, but plateaued at 3–5% thereafter. ASP was statistically significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990–1999 and 2008 than in the other world regions (P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis in both time periods, ASP was only associated with residence in sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusions: Further research is necessary to elucidate the reasons for the higher prevalence of syphilis in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, we have observed an intensification of science, technology and innovation activities in Brazil. The increase in production of scientific papers indexed in international databases, however, has not been accompanied by an equivalent increase in the impact of publications. This paper presents a methodology for analyzing production and the impact of certain research areas in Brazil related to two aspects: the origin of the journals (national or foreign) and international collaboration. These two variables were selected for being of particular importance in understanding the context of scientific production and communication in countries with emerging economies. The sample consisted of papers written by Brazilian researchers in 19 subfields of knowledge published from 2002 to 2011, totaling 85,082 papers. To calculate the impact, we adopted a normalized indicator called the relative subfield citedness (Rw) using a window of 5 years to obtain measurements evaluated in 2 different years: 2007 and 2012. The data on papers and citations were collected from the Web of Science database. From the results, we note that most of the subfields have presented, from one quinquennium to another, improved performance in the world production rankings. Regarding publication in national and foreign journals, we observed a trend in the distribution maintenance of production of the subfields based on the origin of the journal. Specifically, for impact, we identified a lower Rw pattern for Brazilian papers when they were published in national journals in all subfields. When Brazilian products are published in foreign journals, we observed a higher impact for those papers, even surpassing the average global impact in some subfields. For international collaboration, we analyzed the percentage of participation of foreign researchers and the connection between collaboration and the impact of papers, especially emphasizing the distinction of hyperauthorship papers in terms of production and impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue virus infection causes major public health problems in tropical and subtropical areas. In many endemic areas, including the Lao PDR, inadequate access to laboratory facilities is a major obstacle to surveillance and study of dengue epidemiology. Filter paper is widely used for blood collection for subsequent laboratory testing for antibody and nucleic acid detection. For the first time, we demonstrate that dengue viral RNA can be extracted from dengue rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and then submitted to real-time RT-PCR for serotyping. Methodology/Principal Findings: We evaluated the Standard Diagnostics (SD) Bioline Dengue Duo RDT, a commonly used test in dengue endemic areas. First, using the QIAamp RNA kit, dengue RNA was purified from the sample pad of the NS1 RDT loaded with virus isolates of the four serotypes, then quantified by RT-PCR. We observed greater recovery of virus, with a mean of 27 times more RNA recovered from RDT, than from filter paper. Second, we evaluated dengue NS1 RDTs from patients at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, (99 patients) and from rural Salavan Provincial Hospital (362 patients). There was good agreement between dengue RT-PCR from NS1 RDT with RT-PCR performed on RNA extracted from patient sera, either using RDT loaded with blood (82.8% and 91.4%, in Vientiane and Salavan, respectively) or serum (91.9% and 93.9%). There was 100% concordance between RDT and serum RT-PCR of infecting dengue serotype. Conclusions/Significance: Therefore, the collection of NS1 positive RDTs, which do not require cold storage, may be a novel approach for dengue serotyping by RT-PCR and offers promising prospects for the collection of epidemiological data from previously inaccessible tropical areas to aid surveillance and public health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: This paper studies the relationship between the risk of child social exclusion, as measured by the Child Social Exclusion (CSE) index and its individual domains, and child health outcomes at the small area level in Australia. The CSE index is Australia’s only national small-area index of the risk of child social exclusion. It includes five domains that capture different components of social exclusion: socio-economic background, education, connectedness, housing and health services. Methods: The paper used data from the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), University of Canberra for the CSE Index and its domains and two key Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) data sources for the health outcome measures: the National Hospital Morbidity Database and the National Mortality Database. Results: The results show positive associations between rates of both of the negative health outcomes: potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPH) and avoidable deaths, and the overall risk of child social exclusion as well as with the index domains. This analysis at the small-area level can be used to identify and study areas with unexpectedly good or bad health outcomes relative to their estimated risk of child social exclusion. We show that children’s health outcomes are worse in remote parts of Australia than what would be expected solely based on the CSE index. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that developing composite indices of the risk of child social exclusion can provide valuable guidance for local interventions and programs aimed at improving children’s health outcomes. They also indicate the importance of taking a small-area approach when conducting geographic modelling of disadvantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The perception and production of biological movements is characterized by the 1/3 power law, a relation linking the curvature and the velocity of an intended action. In particular, motions are perceived and reproduced distorted when their kinematics deviate from this biological law. Whereas most studies dealing with this perceptual-motor relation focused on visual or kinaesthetic modalities in a unimodal context, in this paper we show that auditory dynamics strikingly biases visuomotor processes. Biologically consistent or inconsistent circular visual motions were used in combination with circular or elliptical auditory motions. Auditory motions were synthesized friction sounds mimicking those produced by the friction of the pen on a paper when someone is drawing. Sounds were presented diotically and the auditory motion velocity was evoked through the friction sound timbre variations without any spatial cues. Remarkably, when subjects were asked to reproduce circular visual motion while listening to sounds that evoked elliptical kinematics without seeing their hand, they drew elliptical shapes. Moreover, distortion induced by inconsistent elliptical kinematics in both visual and auditory modalities added up linearly. These results bring to light the substantial role of auditory dynamics in the visuo-motor coupling in a multisensory context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was conducted in order to map European research in chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs). It was intended to assist the European Commission and other research funders to identify gaps and overlaps in their portfolios, and to suggest ways in which they could improve the effectiveness of their support and increase the impact of the research on patient care and on the reduction of the incidence of the CRDs. Articles and reviews were identified in the Web of Science on research in six non-communicable respiratory diseases that were published in 2002–13 from 31 European countries. They represented only 0.8% of biomedical research output but these diseases accounted for 4.7% of the European disease burden, as measured by Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), so the sub-field is seriously under-researched. Europe is prominent in the sub-field and published 56% of the world total, with the UK the most productive and publishing more than France and Italy, the next two countries, combined. Asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) were the diseases with the most publications and the highest citation rates. They also received the most funding, with around two acknowledgments per paper (in 2009–13), whereas cystic fibrosis and emphysema averaged only one. Just over 37% of papers had no specific funding and depended on institutional support from universities and hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The body of science evaluating the potential impacts of unconventional natural gas development (UNGD) has grown significantly in recent years, although many data gaps remain. Still, a broad empirical understanding of the impacts is beginning to emerge amidst a swell of research. The present categorical assessment provides an overview of the peer-reviewed scientific literature from 2009–2015 as it relates to the potential impacts of UNGD on public health, water quality, and air quality. We have categorized all available original research during this time period in an attempt to understand the weight and direction of the scientific literature. Our results indicate that at least 685 papers have been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals that are relevant to assessing the impacts of UNGD. 84% of public health studies contain findings that indicate public health hazards, elevated risks, or adverse health outcomes; 69% of water quality studies contain findings that indicate potential, positive association, or actual incidence of water contamination; and 87% of air quality studies contain findings that indicate elevated air pollutant emissions and/or atmospheric concentrations. This paper demonstrates that the weight of the findings in the scientific literature indicates hazards and elevated risks to human health as well as possible adverse health outcomes associated with UNGD. There are limitations to this type of assessment and it is only intended to provide a snapshot of the scientific knowledge based on the available literature. However, this work can be used to identify themes that lie in or across studies, to prioritize future research, and to provide an empirical foundation for policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

13C metabolic flux analysis (13C-MFA) has been widely used to measure in vivo enzyme reaction rates (i.e., metabolic flux) in microorganisms. Mining the relationship between environmental and genetic factors and metabolic fluxes hidden in existing fluxomic data will lead to predictive models that can significantly accelerate flux quantification. In this paper, we present a web-based platform MFlux () that predicts the bacterial central metabolism via machine learning, leveraging data from approximately 100 13C-MFA papers on heterotrophic bacterial metabolisms. Three machine learning methods, namely Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN), and Decision Tree, were employed to study the sophisticated relationship between influential factors and metabolic fluxes. We performed a grid search of the best parameter set for each algorithm and verified their performance through 10-fold cross validations. SVM yields the highest accuracy among all three algorithms. Further, we employed quadratic programming to adjust flux profiles to satisfy stoichiometric constraints. Multiple case studies have shown that MFlux can reasonably predict fluxomes as a function of bacterial species, substrate types, growth rate, oxygen conditions, and cultivation methods. Due to the interest of studying model organism under particular carbon sources, bias of fluxome in the dataset may limit the applicability of machine learning models. This problem can be resolved after more papers on 13C-MFA are published for non-model species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Toxoplasma gondii is one of the most widespread parasites in humans and can cause severe illness in immunocompromised individuals. However, its role in healthy people is probably under-appreciated. The complex epidemiology of this protozoan recognizes several infection routes but consumption of contaminated food is likely to be the predominant one. Among food, consumption of raw and undercooked meat is a relevant route of transmission, but the role of different meat producing animal species and meats thereof is controversial. Objectives: The aim of the present work is to summarize and analyse literature data reporting prevalence estimates of T. gondii in meat animals/meats. Data Sources: We searched Medline, Web of Science, Science Direct (last update 31/03/2015). Eligibility Criteria: Relevant papers should report data from primary studies dealing with the prevalence of T. gondii in meat from livestock species as obtained through direct detection methods. Meta-analysis and meta-regression were performed. Results: Of 1915 papers screened, 69 papers were included, dealing mainly with cattle, pigs and sheep. Pooled prevalences, based on random-effect models, were 2.6% (CI95 [0.5–5.8]) for cattle, 12.3% (CI95 [7.6–17.8]) for pigs and 14.7% (CI95 [8.9–21.5]) for sheep. Due to the high heterogeneity observed, univariable and multivariable meta-regression models were fitted showing that the geographic area for cattle (p = 0.032), the farming type for pigs (p = 0.0004) and the sample composition for sheep (p = 0.03) had significant effects on the prevalences of Toxoplasma detected/estimated. Moreover, the role of different animal species was dependent on the geographic location of animals’ origin. Limitations: Limitations were due mainly to a possible publication bias. Conclusions and Implications: The present work confirms the role of meat, including beef, as T. gondii sources, and highlights the need for a control system for this parasite to be implemented along the meat production chain. Moreover, consumer knowledge should be strengthened in order to reduce the impact of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting), significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Wealthy schools appoint better qualified teachers, less wealthy schools under qualified teachers. Added to this mix is a powerful teacher’s union whose policies attempt to entrench the job security of teachers in the less wealthy schools irrespective of whether they can teach their subjects or not. Can one isolate these effects from that of other socio-demographic factors that may also be affecting the performance of students when they enrol for a degree at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN)? An outcome variable that subtracts the number of courses that have been failed from the number of courses that have been passed, dividing this by the total number of years that they have spent studying for a particular degree will be used as a response variable for this paper. Objectives: The system of secondary education in South Africa is highly polarized. On the one hand, we have a group of mainly Black African students, forming about 80% of the total student population, that come from a vastly under-resourced rural or township based community. On the other hand, we have a group of predominantly White and Indian students who are able to attend a far better resourced set of private schools. Added to this mix, we have 240,000 of South Africa’s total number of 390,000 primary and secondary school teachers who belong to a powerful teacher’s union which enjoys a strong political alliance with the ruling party in South Africa. With most of their union members teaching in the less wealthy schools in South Africa, `school background’ now includes a politically motivated component that focuses on teacher self–interest rather than the education of the child. What sort of effect does school background have on the performance of students when they enter an institution of higher learning? More importantly, can one isolate the effect of school background from that of other possibly confounding factors such as gender, financial aid and the receipt of some form of residence based accommodation that will also impact on their performance while at university? Method: A total of 6,183 students enrolling for a degree at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) over the period 2008 to 2012 were used a dataset for this study. Permission to use this dataset was given by the Teaching and Learning Office at UKZN. The database that was used for this study was obtained from the Division of Management Information (DMI) office at UKZN. The percentage based marks that students have managed to record for Mathematics, English, Biology and Accounting in their school leaving exams together with some other important but observable socio-economic factors were included in a regression model to determine how students will perform at UKZN. Socio-economic variables relating to gender, race and whether they have receivd some form of financial aid or residence based accommodation while studying at university were also included as predictor variables in our regression based model structure. Results and Conclusions: An interaction effect associated with being a Black African student who has been privileged enough to attend a quintile five school was found to be significant. A main effect associated with being able to attend a more privileged quintile 5 school however was found to be nonsignificant even after an adjustment has been made for gender, race, the receipt of some form of financial aid and residence based accommodation. Given that UKZN already has a number of bridging programs in place that target students who have come from a less privileged background, for university based policymakers, this result may help to justify the targeted selection of Black African students from the less privileged schools that is taking place. Because some of the disparity in matric performance that we are observing may also be associated with teacher competency and the protective influence of a powerful teacher’s union, this paper may also help to highlight some of the economic costs related with having under-prepared students. “A mind is a terrible thing to waste”–United Negro College Fund. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is a major challenge to search for survivors after chemical or nuclear leakage or explosions. At present, biological radar can be used to achieve this goal by detecting the survivor’s respiration signal. However, owing to the random posture of an injured person at a rescue site, the radar wave may directly irradiate the person’s head or feet, in which it is difficult to detect the respiration signal. This paper describes a multichannel-based antenna array technology, which forms an omnidirectional detection system via 24-GHz Doppler biological radar, to address the random positioning relative to the antenna of an object to be detected. Furthermore, since the survivors often have random body movement such as struggling and twitching, the slight movements of the body caused by breathing are obscured by these movements. Therefore, a method is proposed to identify random human-body movement by utilizing multichannel information to calculate the background variance of the environment in combination with a constant-false-alarm-rate detector. The conducted outdoor experiments indicate that the system can realize the omnidirectional detection of random human-body movement and distinguish body movement from environmental interference such as movement of leaves and grass. The methods proposed in this paper will be a promising way to search for survivors outdoors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, genome and exome sequencing studies have implicated a plethora of new disease genes with rare causal variants. Here, I review 150 exome sequencing studies that claim to have discovered that a disease can be caused by different rare variants in the same gene, and I determine whether their methods followed the current best-practice guidelines in the interpretation of their data. Specifically, I assess whether studies appropriately assess controls for rare variants throughout the entire gene or implicated region as opposed to only investigating the specific rare variants identified in the cases, and I assess whether studies present sufficient co-segregation data for statistically significant linkage. I find that the proportion of studies performing gene-based analyses has increased with time, but that even in 2015 fewer than 40% of the reviewed studies used this method, and only 10% presented statistically significant co-segregation data. Furthermore, I find that the genes reported in these papers are explaining a decreasing proportion of cases as the field moves past most of the low-hanging fruit, with 50% of the genes from studies in 2014 and 2015 having variants in fewer than 5% of cases. As more studies focus on genes explaining relatively few cases, the importance of performing appropriate gene-based analyses is increasing. It is becoming increasingly important for journal editors and reviewers to require stringent gene-based evidence to avoid an avalanche of misleading disease gene discovery papers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spiking neural networks (SNNs) are the third generation of neural networks and perform remarkably well in cognitive tasks such as pattern recognition. The spike emitting and information processing mechanisms found in biological cognitive systems motivate the application of the hierarchical structure and temporal encoding mechanism in spiking neural networks, which have exhibited strong computational capability. However, the hierarchical structure and temporal encoding approach require neurons to process information serially in space and time respectively, which reduce the training efficiency significantly. For training the hierarchical SNNs, most existing methods are based on the traditional back-propagation algorithm, inheriting its drawbacks of the gradient diffusion and the sensitivity on parameters. To keep the powerful computation capability of the hierarchical structure and temporal encoding mechanism, but to overcome the low efficiency of the existing algorithms, a new training algorithm, the Normalized Spiking Error Back Propagation (NSEBP) is proposed in this paper. In the feedforward calculation, the output spike times are calculated by solving the quadratic function in the spike response model instead of detecting postsynaptic voltage states at all time points in traditional algorithms. Besides, in the feedback weight modification, the computational error is propagated to previous layers by the presynaptic spike jitter instead of the gradient decent rule, which realizes the layer-wised training. Furthermore, our algorithm investigates the mathematical relation between the weight variation and voltage error change, which makes the normalization in the weight modification applicable. Adopting these strategies, our algorithm outperforms the traditional SNN multi-layer algorithms in terms of learning efficiency and parameter sensitivity, that are also demonstrated by the comprehensive experimental results in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several biological tissues undergo changes in their geometry and in their bulk material properties by modelling and remodelling processes. Modelling synthesises tissue in some regions and removes tissue in others. Remodelling overwrites old tissue material properties with newly formed, immature tissue properties. As a result, tissues are made up of different “patches”, i.e., adjacent tissue regions of different ages and different material properties, within evolving boundaries. In this paper, generalised equations governing the spatio-temporal evolution of such tissues are developed within the continuum model. These equations take into account nonconservative, discontinuous surface mass balance due to creation and destruction of material at moving interfaces, and bulk balance due to tissue maturation. These equations make it possible to model patchy tissue states and their evolution without explicitly maintaining a record of when/where resorption and formation processes occurred. The time evolution of spatially averaged tissue properties is derived systematically by integration. These spatially-averaged equations cannot be written in closed form as they retain traces that tissue destruction is localised at tissue boundaries. The formalism developed in this paper is applied to bone tissues, which exhibit strong material heterogeneities due to their slow mineralisation and remodelling processes. Evolution equations are proposed in particular for osteocyte density and bone mineral density. Effective average equations for bone mineral density (BMD) and tissue mineral density (TMD) are derived using a mean-field approximation. The error made by this approximation when remodelling patchy tissue is investigated. The specific signatures of the time evolution of BMD or TMD during remodelling events are exhibited. These signatures may provide a way to detect remodelling events at lower, unseen spatial resolutions from microCT scans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A recent paper by Tomasetti and Vogelstein (Science 2015 347 78–81) suggested that the variation in natural cancer risk was largely explained by the total number of stem-cell divisions, and that most cancers arose by chance. They proposed an extra-risk score as way of distinguishing the effects of the stochastic, replicative component of cancer risk from other causative factors, specifically those due to the external environment and inherited mutations. Objectives: We tested the hypothesis raised by Tomasetti and Vogelstein by assessing the degree of correlation of stem cell divisions and their extra-risk score with radiation- and tobacco-associated cancer risk. Methods: We fitted a variety of linear and log-linear models to data on stem cell divisions per year and cumulative stem cell divisions over lifetime and natural cancer risk, some taken from the paper of Tomasetti and Vogelstein, augmented using current US lifetime cancer risk data, and also radiation- and tobacco-associated cancer risk. Results: The data assembled by Tomasetti and Vogelstein, as augmented here, are inconsistent with the power-of-age relationship commonly observed for cancer incidence and the predictions of a multistage carcinogenesis model, if one makes the strong assumption of homogeneity of numbers of driver mutations across cancer sites. Analysis of the extra-risk score and various other measures (number of stem cell divisions per year, cumulative number of stem cell divisions over life) considered by Tomasetti and Vogelstein suggests that these are poorly predictive of currently available estimates of radiation- or smoking-associated cancer risk–for only one out of 37 measures or logarithmic transformations thereof is there a statistically significant correlation (p<0.05) with radiation- or smoking-associated risk. Conclusions: The data used by Tomasetti and Vogelstein are in conflict with predictions of a multistage model of carcinogenesis, under the assumption of homogeneity of numbers of driver mutations across most cancer sites. Their hypothesis that if the extra-risk score for a tissue type is high then one would expect that environmental factors would play a relatively more important role in that cancer’s risk is in conflict with the lack of correlation between the extra-risk score and other stem-cell proliferation indices and radiation- or smoking-related cancer risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When disaster events capture global attention users of Twitter form transient interest communities that disseminate information and other messages online. This paper examines content related to Typhoon Haiyan (locally known as Yolanda) as it hit the Philippines and triggered international humanitarian response and media attention. It reveals how Twitter conversations about disasters evolve over time, showing an issue attention cycle on a social media platform. The paper examines different functions of Twitter and the information hubs that drive and sustain conversation about the event. Content analysis shows that the majority of tweets contain information about the typhoon or its damage, and disaster relief activities. There are differences in types of content between the most retweeted messages and posts that are original tweets. Original tweets are more likely to come from ordinary users, who are more likely to tweet emotions, messages of support, and political content compared with official sources and key information hubs that include news organizations, aid organization, and celebrities. Original tweets reveal use of the site beyond information to relief coordination and response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Nigeria has one of the highest burdens of pneumococcal disease in the world, but accurate surveillance is lacking. Molecular detection of infectious pathogens in dried blood spots (DBS) is an ideal method for surveillance of infections in resource-limited settings because of its low cost, minimal blood volumes involved, and ease of storage at ambient temperature. Our study aim was to evaluate a Streptococcus pneumoniae real-time polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR) assay on DBS from febrile Nigerian children on Whatman 903 and FTA filter papers, compared to the gold standard of culture. Methods: Between September 2011 to May 2015, blood was collected from children 5 years of age or under who presented to six hospital study sites throughout northern and central Nigeria with febrile illness, and inoculated into blood culture bottles or spotted onto Whatman 903 or FTA filter paper. Culture and rt-PCR were performed on all samples. Results: A total of 537 DBS specimens from 535 children were included in the study, of which 15 were culture-positive for S. pneumoniae. The rt-PCR assay detected S. pneumoniae in 12 DBS specimens (2.2%). One positive rt-PCR result was identified in a culture-negative specimen from a high-risk subject, and two positive rt-PCR results were negative on repeat testing. Six culture-confirmed cases of S. pneumoniae bacteremia were missed. Compared to culture, the overall sensitivities of Whatman 903 and FTA DBS for detection of S. pneumoniae were 57.1% (95% CI 18.4–90.1%) and 62.5% (95% CI 24.5–91.5%), respectively. Nonspecific amplification was noted in an additional 22 DBS (4.1%). Among these, six were positive for a non-S. pneumoniae pathogen on culture. Conclusions: Rt-PCR was able to detect S. pneumoniae from clinical DBS specimens, including from a culture-negative specimen. Our findings show promise of this approach as a surveillance diagnostic, but also raise important cautionary questions. Several DBS specimens were detected as S. pneumoniae by rt-PCR despite growth of a non-S. pneumoniae pathogen on culture. A precise definition of what constitutes a positive result is required to avoid falsely over-identifying specimens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persuasion is at the core of norm creation, emergence of collective action, and solutions to ‘tragedy of the commons’ problems. In this paper, we show that the directionality of friendship ties affect the extent to which individuals can influence the behavior of each other. Moreover, we find that people are typically poor at perceiving the directionality of their friendship ties and that this can significantly limit their ability to engage in cooperative arrangements. This could lead to failures in establishing compatible norms, acting together, finding compromise solutions, and persuading others to act. We then suggest strategies to overcome this limitation by using two topological characteristics of the perceived friendship network. The findings of this paper have significant consequences for designing interventions that seek to harness social influence for collective action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In high efficiency video coding (HEVC), coding tree contributes to excellent compression performance. However, coding tree brings extremely high computational complexity. Innovative works for improving coding tree to further reduce encoding time are stated in this paper. A novel low complexity coding tree mechanism is proposed for HEVC fast coding unit (CU) encoding. Firstly, this paper makes an in-depth study of the relationship among CU distribution, quantization parameter (QP) and content change (CC). Secondly, a CU coding tree probability model is proposed for modeling and predicting CU distribution. Eventually, a CU coding tree probability update is proposed, aiming to address probabilistic model distortion problems caused by CC. Experimental results show that the proposed low complexity CU coding tree mechanism significantly reduces encoding time by 27% for lossy coding and 42% for visually lossless coding and lossless coding. The proposed low complexity CU coding tree mechanism devotes to improving coding performance under various application conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Virtual Reality (VR) has emerged as a promising tool in many domains of therapy and rehabilitation, and has recently attracted the attention of researchers and clinicians working with elderly people with MCI, Alzheimer’s disease and related disorders. Here we present a study testing the feasibility of using highly realistic image-based rendered VR with patients with MCI and dementia. We designed an attentional task to train selective and sustained attention, and we tested a VR and a paper version of this task in a single-session within-subjects design. Results showed that participants with MCI and dementia reported to be highly satisfied and interested in the task, and they reported high feelings of security, low discomfort, anxiety and fatigue. In addition, participants reported a preference for the VR condition compared to the paper condition, even if the task was more difficult. Interestingly, apathetic participants showed a preference for the VR condition stronger than that of non-apathetic participants. These findings suggest that VR-based training can be considered as an interesting tool to improve adherence to cognitive training in elderly people with cognitive impairment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Debates over the pros and cons of a “publish or perish” philosophy have inflamed academia for at least half a century. Growing concerns, in particular, are expressed for policies that reward “quantity” at the expense of “quality,” because these might prompt scientists to unduly multiply their publications by fractioning (“salami slicing”), duplicating, rushing, simplifying, or even fabricating their results. To assess the reasonableness of these concerns, we analyzed publication patterns of over 40,000 researchers that, between the years 1900 and 2013, have published two or more papers within 15 years, in any of the disciplines covered by the Web of Science. The total number of papers published by researchers during their early career period (first fifteen years) has increased in recent decades, but so has their average number of co-authors. If we take the latter factor into account, by measuring productivity fractionally or by only counting papers published as first author, we observe no increase in productivity throughout the century. Even after the 1980s, adjusted productivity has not increased for most disciplines and countries. These results are robust to methodological choices and are actually conservative with respect to the hypothesis that publication rates are growing. Therefore, the widespread belief that pressures to publish are causing the scientific literature to be flooded with salami-sliced, trivial, incomplete, duplicated, plagiarized and false results is likely to be incorrect or at least exaggerated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria elimination efforts are hampered by the lack of sensitive tools to detect infections with low-level parasitemia, usually below the threshold of standard diagnostic methods, microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests. Isothermal nucleic acid amplification assays such as the loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), are well suited for field use as they do not require thermal cyclers to run the test. However, the use of specialized equipment, as described by many groups, reduces the versatility of the LAMP technique as a simple tool for use in endemic countries. In this study, the use of the malachite green (MG) dye, as a visual endpoint readout, together with a simple mini heat block was evaluated for the detection of malaria parasites. The assay was performed for 1 hour at 63°C and the results scored by 3 independent human readers. The limit of detection of the assay was determined using well-quantified Plasmodium spp. infected reference samples and its utility in testing clinical samples was determined using 190 pre-treatment specimens submitted for reference diagnosis of imported malaria in the United States. Use of a simplified boil and spin methods of DNA extraction from whole blood and filter paper was also investigated. We demonstrate the accurate and sensitive detection of malaria parasites using this assay with a detection limit ranging between 1–8 parasites/μL, supporting its applicability for the detection of infections with low parasite burden. This assay is compatible with the use of a simple boil and spin sample preparation method from both whole blood and filter papers without a loss of sensitivity. The MG-LAMP assay described here has great potential to extend the reach of molecular tools to settings where they are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distance sampling is a technique for estimating the abundance of animals or other objects in a region, allowing for imperfect detection. This paper evaluates the statistical efficiency of the method when its assumptions are met, both theoretically and by simulation. The theoretical component of the paper is a derivation of the asymptotic variance penalty for the distance sampling estimator arising from uncertainty about the unknown detection parameters. This asymptotic penalty factor is tabulated for several detection functions. It is typically at least 2 but can be much higher, particularly for steeply declining detection rates. The asymptotic result relies on a model which makes the strong assumption that objects are uniformly distributed across the region. The simulation study relaxes this assumption by incorporating over-dispersion when generating object locations. Distance sampling and strip transect estimators are calculated for simulated data, for a variety of overdispersion factors, detection functions, sample sizes and strip widths. The simulation results confirm the theoretical asymptotic penalty in the non-overdispersed case. For a more realistic overdispersion factor of 2, distance sampling estimation outperforms strip transect estimation when a half-normal distance function is correctly assumed, confirming previous literature. When the hazard rate model is correctly assumed, strip transect estimators have lower mean squared error than the usual distance sampling estimator when the strip width is close enough to its optimal value (± 75% when there are 100 detections; ± 50% when there are 200 detections). Whether the ecologist can set the strip width sufficiently accurately will depend on the circumstances of each particular study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motor control is a challenging task for the central nervous system, since it involves redundant degrees of freedom, nonlinear dynamics of actuators and limbs, as well as noise. When an action is carried out, which factors does your nervous system consider to determine the appropriate set of muscle forces between redundant degrees-of-freedom? Important factors determining motor output likely encompass effort and the resulting motor noise. However, the tasks used in many previous motor control studies could not identify these two factors uniquely, as signal-dependent noise monotonically increases as a function of the effort. To address this, a recent paper introduced a force control paradigm involving one finger in each hand that can disambiguate these two factors. It showed that the central nervous system considers both force noise and amplitude, with a larger weight on the absolute force and lower weights on both noise and normalized force. While these results are valid for the relatively low force range considered in that paper, the magnitude of the force shared between the fingers for large forces is not known. This paper investigates this question experimentally, and develops an appropriate Markov chain Monte Carlo method in order to estimate the weightings given to these factors. Our results demonstrate that the force sharing strongly depends on the force level required, so that for higher force levels the normalized force is considered as much as the absolute force, whereas the role of noise minimization becomes negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for coping with rainfall variability. Such adjustments are not incorporated in hydro-meteorological crop models commonly used for food security analyses. Our paper contributes to the literature by making a comprehensive model assessment of inter-annual variability in crop production, including both variations in crop yield and cropped area. The Ganges basin is used as a case study. First, we assessed the contribution of cropped area variability to overall variability in rice and wheat production by applying hierarchical partitioning on time-series of agricultural statistics. We then introduced cropped area as an endogenous decision variable in a hydro-economic optimization model (WaterWise), coupled to a hydrology-vegetation model (LPJmL), and analyzed to what extent its performance in the estimation of inter-annual variability in crop production improved. From the statistics, we found that in the period 1999–2009 seasonal adjustment in cropped area can explain almost 50% of variability in wheat production and 40% of variability in rice production in the Indian part of the Ganges basin. Our improved model was well capable of mimicking existing variability at different spatial aggregation levels, especially for wheat. The value of flexibility, i.e. the foregone costs of choosing not to crop in years when water is scarce, was quantified at 4% of gross margin of wheat in the Indian part of the Ganges basin and as high as 34% of gross margin of wheat in the drought-prone state of Rajasthan. We argue that flexibility in land use is an important coping strategy to rainfall variability in water stressed regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

H-index is the most commonly applied tool to evaluate scientific productivity. In this study, the use of the H-index to evaluate scientific production in swine veterinary medicine was explored. A database of 137 pig infectious agents was constructed, including its taxonomic division, zoonotic potential, status as emerging pathogen and whether it was OIE-listed. The H-index and the total number of citations were calculated for those pathogens, the location of the affiliation of the first author of each paper included in the H-index core was registered and, for the ten pathogens with the highest H-index, evolution over time was measured. H-index values were compared to the M quotient, A-index, G-index, HG-index and the G/H ratio. H-indices were found to be severely affected by search accuracy and the database was hand curated. Swine pathogen H-indexes were highly dispersed ranging from 0 to 106 and were generally higher for pathogens causing endemic diseases in large pig producing countries. Indeed, the three top pathogens were Escherichia coli, Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus and Porcine circovirus type 2 with H-indices 106, 95 and 85, respectively. H-indices of viruses and bacteria were significantly higher (P<0.001) than other pathogen types. Also, non-zoonotic pathogens had higher H-indices than zoonotic pathogens (p<0.009) while no differences could be found for being listed by the OIE. For emerging diseases, only non-emerging viruses had higher H-index (p = 0.02). The study of H-indexes over time revealed three general patterns and that they had increased mainly after the 1980’s. As expected, there were strong geographic patterns in terms of authorship and North America (38%) and Europe (46%) coped the majority of the papers. Finally, in order to quantify the contribution of a subject to a specific field, a new index “Deciphering Citations Organized by Subject” (Dcos) is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims: Extended esophageal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is highly responsible for esophageal stricture. We conducted a comparative study in a porcine model to evaluate the effectiveness of adipose tissue-derived stromal cell (ADSC) double cell sheet transplantation. Methods: Twelve female pigs were treated with 5 cm long hemi-circumferential ESD and randomized in two groups. ADSC group (n = 6) received 4 double cell sheets of allogenic ADSC on a paper support membrane and control group (n = 6) received 4 paper support membranes. ADSC were labelled with PKH-67 fluorophore to allow probe-based confocal laser endomicroscopie (pCLE) monitoring. After 28 days follow-up, animals were sacrificed. At days 3, 14 and 28, endoscopic evaluation with pCLE and esophagography were performed. Results: One animal from the control group was excluded (anesthetic complication). Animals from ADSC group showed less frequent alimentary trouble (17% vs 80%; P = 0.08) and higher gain weight on day 28. pCLE demonstrated a compatible cell signal in 4 animals of the ADSC group at day 3. In ADSC group, endoscopy showed that 1 out of 6(17%) animals developed a severe esophageal stricture comparatively to 100% (5/5) in the control group; P = 0.015. Esophagography demonstrated a decreased degree of stricture in the ADSC group on day 14 (44% vs 81%; P = 0.017) and day 28 (46% vs 90%; P = 0.035). Histological analysis showed a decreased fibrosis development in the ADSC group, in terms of surface (9.7 vs 26.1 mm²; P = 0.017) and maximal depth (1.6 vs 3.2 mm; P = 0.052). Conclusion: In this model, transplantation of allogenic ADSC organized in double cell sheets after extended esophegeal ESD is strongly associated with a lower esophageal stricture’s rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The use of food supplements containing botanicals is increasing in European markets. Although intended to maintain the health status, several cases of adverse effects to Plant Food Supplements (PFS) have been described. Objectives: To describe the self-reported adverse effects collected during the European PlantLIBRA PFS Consumer Survey 2011–2012, with a critical evaluation of the plausibility of the symptomatology reported using data from the literature and from the PlantLIBRA Poisons Centers' survey. Subjects/Setting: From the total sample of 2359 consumers involved in the consumers' survey, 82 subjects reported adverse effects due to a total of 87 PFS. Results: Cases were self-reported, therefore causality was not classified on the basis of clinical evidence, but by using the frequency/strength of adverse effects described in scientific papers: 52 out of 87 cases were defined as possible (59.8%) and 4 as probable (4.6%). Considering the most frequently cited botanicals, eight cases were due to Valeriana officinalis (garden valerian); seven to Camellia sinensis (tea); six to Ginkgo biloba (Maidenhair tree) and Paullinia cupana (guarana). Most adverse events related to the gastrointestinal tract, nervous and cardiovascular systems. Conclusions: Comparing the data from this study with those published in scientific papers and obtained by the PlantLIBRA Poisons Centers' survey, some important conclusions can be drawn: severe adverse effects to PFS are quite rare, although mild or moderate adverse symptoms can be present. Data reported in this paper can help health professionals (and in particular family doctors) to become aware of possible new problems associated with the increasing use of food supplements containing botanicals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the results of the recent Reproducibility Project: Psychology by the Open Science Collaboration. We compute Bayes factors—a quantity that can be used to express comparative evidence for an hypothesis but also for the null hypothesis—for a large subset (N = 72) of the original papers and their corresponding replication attempts. In our computation, we take into account the likely scenario that publication bias had distorted the originally published results. Overall, 75% of studies gave qualitatively similar results in terms of the amount of evidence provided. However, the evidence was often weak (i.e., Bayes factor < 10). The majority of the studies (64%) did not provide strong evidence for either the null or the alternative hypothesis in either the original or the replication, and no replication attempts provided strong evidence in favor of the null. In all cases where the original paper provided strong evidence but the replication did not (15%), the sample size in the replication was smaller than the original. Where the replication provided strong evidence but the original did not (10%), the replication sample size was larger. We conclude that the apparent failure of the Reproducibility Project to replicate many target effects can be adequately explained by overestimation of effect sizes (or overestimation of evidence against the null hypothesis) due to small sample sizes and publication bias in the psychological literature. We further conclude that traditional sample sizes are insufficient and that a more widespread adoption of Bayesian methods is desirable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using matching and regression analyses, we measure the difference in citations between articles posted to Academia.edu and other articles from similar journals, controlling for field, impact factor, and other variables. Based on a sample size of 31,216 papers, we find that a paper in a median impact factor journal uploaded to Academia.edu receives 16% more citations after one year than a similar article not available online, 51% more citations after three years, and 69% after five years. We also found that articles also posted to Academia.edu had 58% more citations than articles only posted to other online venues, such as personal and departmental home pages, after five years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To discover regularities in human mobility is of fundamental importance to our understanding of urban dynamics, and essential to city and transport planning, urban management and policymaking. Previous research has revealed universal regularities at mainly aggregated spatio-temporal scales but when we zoom into finer scales, considerable heterogeneity and diversity is observed instead. The fundamental question we address in this paper is at what scales are the regularities we detect stable, explicable, and sustainable. This paper thus proposes a basic measure of variability to assess the stability of such regularities focusing mainly on changes over a range of temporal scales. We demonstrate this by comparing regularities in the urban mobility patterns in three world cities, namely London, Singapore and Beijing using one-week of smart-card data. The results show that variations in regularity scale as non-linear functions of the temporal resolution, which we measure over a scale from 1 minute to 24 hours thus reflecting the diurnal cycle of human mobility. A particularly dramatic increase in variability occurs up to the temporal scale of about 15 minutes in all three cities and this implies that limits exist when we look forward or backward with respect to making short-term predictions. The degree of regularity varies in fact from city to city with Beijing and Singapore showing higher regularity in comparison to London across all temporal scales. A detailed discussion is provided, which relates the analysis to various characteristics of the three cities. In summary, this work contributes to a deeper understanding of regularities in patterns of transit use from variations in volumes of travellers entering subway stations, it establishes a generic analytical framework for comparative studies using urban mobility data, and it provides key points for the management of variability by policy-makers intent on for making the travel experience more amenable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Research investigating cognition and behaviour in Sotos syndrome has been sporadic and to date, there is no published overview of study findings. Method: A systematic review of all published literature (1964–2015) presenting empirical data on cognition and behaviour in Sotos syndrome. Thirty four journal articles met inclusion criteria. Within this literature, data relating to cognition and/or behaviour in 247 individuals with a diagnosis of Sotos syndrome were reported. Ten papers reported group data on cognition and/or behaviour. The remaining papers employed a case study design. Results: Intelligence quotient (IQ) scores were reported in twenty five studies. Intellectual disability (IQ < 70) or borderline intellectual functioning (IQ 70–84) was present in the vast majority of individuals with Sotos syndrome. Seven studies reported performance on subscales of intelligence tests. Data from these studies indicate that verbal IQ scores are consistently higher than performance IQ scores. Fourteen papers provided data on behavioural features of individuals with Sotos syndrome. Key themes that emerged in the behavioural literature were overlap with ASD, ADHD, anxiety and high prevalence of aggression/tantrums. Conclusion: Although a range of studies have provided insight into cognition and behaviour in Sotos syndrome, specific profiles have not yet been fully specified. Recommendations for future research are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Penalized selection criteria like AIC or BIC are among the most popular methods for variable selection. Their theoretical properties have been studied intensively and are well understood, but making use of them in case of high-dimensional data is difficult due to the non-convex optimization problem induced by L0 penalties. In this paper we introduce an adaptive ridge procedure (AR), where iteratively weighted ridge problems are solved whose weights are updated in such a way that the procedure converges towards selection with L0 penalties. After introducing AR its specific shrinkage properties are studied in the particular case of orthogonal linear regression. Based on extensive simulations for the non-orthogonal case as well as for Poisson regression the performance of AR is studied and compared with SCAD and adaptive LASSO. Furthermore an efficient implementation of AR in the context of least-squares segmentation is presented. The paper ends with an illustrative example of applying AR to analyze GWAS data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Specific memory might be stored in a subnetwork consisting of a small population of neurons. To select neurons involved in memory formation, neural competition might be essential. In this paper, we show that excitable neurons are competitive and organize into two assemblies in a recurrent network with spike timing-dependent synaptic plasticity (STDP) and axonal conduction delays. Neural competition is established by the cooperation of spontaneously induced neural oscillation, axonal conduction delays, and STDP. We also suggest that the competition mechanism in this paper is one of the basic functions required to organize memory-storing subnetworks into fine-scale cortical networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the theory of belief functions, the approximation of a basic belief assignment (BBA) is for reducing the high computational cost especially when large number of focal elements are available. In traditional BBA approximation approaches, a focal element’s own characteristics such as the mass assignment and the cardinality, are usually used separately or jointly as criteria for the removal of focal elements. Besides the computational cost, the distance between the original BBA and the approximated one is also concerned, which represents the loss of information in BBA approximation. In this paper, an iterative approximation approach is proposed based on maximizing the closeness, i.e., minimizing the distance between the approximated BBA in current iteration and the BBA obtained in the previous iteration, where one focal element is removed in each iteration. The iteration stops when the desired number of focal elements is reached. The performance evaluation approaches for BBA approximations are also discussed and used to compare and evaluate traditional BBA approximations and the newly proposed one in this paper, which include traditional time-based way, closeness-based way and new proposed ones. Experimental results and related analyses are provided to show the rationality and efficiency of our proposed new BBA approximation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence-based practice and capacity-building approaches are essential for large-scale health promotion interventions. However, there are few models in the literature to guide and evaluate training of social service workers in community settings. This paper presents the development and evaluation of the “train-the-trainer” workshop (TTT) for the first large scale, community-based, family intervention projects, entitled “Happy Family Kitchen Project” (HFK) under the FAMILY project, a Hong Kong Jockey Club Initiative for a Harmonious Society. The workshop aimed to enhance social workers’ competence and performance in applying positive psychology constructs in their family interventions under HFK to improve family well-being of the community they served. The two-day TTT was developed and implemented by a multidisciplinary team in partnership with community agencies to 50 social workers (64% women). It focused on the enhancement of knowledge, attitude, and practice of five specific positive psychology themes, which were the basis for the subsequent development of the 23 family interventions for 1419 participants. Acceptability and applicability were enhanced by completing a needs assessment prior to the training. The TTT was evaluated by trainees’ reactions to the training content and design, changes in learners (trainees) and benefits to the service organizations. Focus group interviews to evaluate the workshop at three months after the training, and questionnaire survey at pre-training, immediately after, six months, one year and two years after training were conducted. There were statistically significant increases with large to moderate effect size in perceived knowledge, self-efficacy and practice after training, which sustained to 2-year follow-up. Furthermore, there were statistically significant improvements in family communication and well-being of the participants in the HFK interventions they implemented after training. This paper offers a practical example of development, implementation and model-based evaluation of training programs, which may be helpful to others seeking to develop such programs in diverse communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]