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This paper provides empirical evidence that individuals substantially revise their stated wealth redistribution preferences after fiscal scandals. The 2016 Panama Papers scandal revealed top-income tax evasion behaviour simultaneously worldwide. The empirical investigation exploits this event as a quasi-natural experiment. I rely on two original datasets, a UK household longitudinal dataset and a survey conducted in 22 European countries. I use a difference-in-differences strategy and find that pro-redistribution statements increased between 2% and 3.3% after the scandal. Responses are heterogeneous and larger for right-wing individuals and low-income individuals. This change in wealth redistribution preferences is likely to have been translated into a slight change in votes. The results suggest an increase in stated voting intentions for the left and a decrease for the right. Complementary estimations reveal that more media coverage and more individuals involved by country increase the magnitude of the response., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Crime has major influences in urban life, from migration and mobility patterns, to housing prices and neighborhood liveability. However, urban crime studies still largely rely on static data reported by the various institutions and organizations dedicated to urban safety. In this paper, we demonstrate how the use of digital technologies enables the fine-grained analysis of specific crimes over time and space. This paper leverages the rise of ubiquitous sensing to investigate the issue of bike theft in Amsterdam—a city with a dominant cycling culture, where reportedly more than 80,000 bikes are stolen every year. We use active location tracking to unveil where stolen bikes travel to and what their temporal patterns are. This is the first study using tracking technologies to focus on two critical aspects of contemporary cities: active mobility and urban crime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the common belief that police presence reduces crime, there is mixed evidence of such causal effects in major Latin America cities. In this work we identify the casual relationship between police presence and criminal events by using a large dataset of a randomized controlled police intervention in Bogotá D.C., Colombia. We use an Instrumental Variables approach to identify the causal effect of interest. Then we consistently estimate a Conditional Logit discrete choice model with aggregate data that allow us to identify agents' utilities for crime location using Two Stage Least Squares. The estimated parameters allow us to compute the police own and cross-elasticities of crime for each of the spatial locations and to evaluate different police patrolling strategies. The elasticity of crime to police presence is, on average across spatial locations, −0.26 for violent crime, −0.38 for property crime and −0.38 for total crime, all statistically significant. Estimates of cross-elasticities are close to zero; however, spillover effects are non-negligible. Counterfactual analysis of different police deployment strategies show, for an optimal allocating algorithm, an average reduction in violent crime of 7.09%, a reduction in property crimes of 8.48% and a reduction in total crimes of 5.15% at no additional cost. These results show the potential efficiency gains of using the model to deploy police resources in the city without increasing the total police time required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an innovative methodology to study the application of seasonality (the existence of cyclical patterns) to help predict the level of crime. This methodology combines the simplicity of entropy-based metrics that describe temporal patterns of a phenomenon, on the one hand, and the predictive power of machine learning on the other. First, the classical Colwell's metrics Predictability and Contingency are used to measure different aspects of seasonality in a geographical unit. Second, if those metrics turn out to be significantly different from zero, supervised machine learning classification algorithms are built, validated and compared, to predict the level of crime based on the time unit. The methodology is applied to a case study in Barcelona (Spain), with month as the unit of time, and municipal district as the geographical unit, the city being divided into 10 of them, from a set of property crime data covering the period 2010-2018. The results show that (a) Colwell's metrics are significantly different from zero in all municipal districts, (b) the month of the year is a good predictor of the level of crime, and (c) Naive Bayes is the most competitive classifier, among those who have been tested. The districts can be ordered using the Naive Bayes, based on the strength of the month as a predictor for each of them. Surprisingly, this order coincides with that obtained using Contingency. This fact is very revealing, given the apparent disconnection between entropy-based metrics and machine learning classifiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The low prevalence effect is a phenomenon whereby target prevalence affects performance in visual search (e.g., baggage screening) and comparison (e.g., fingerprint examination) tasks, such that people more often fail to detect infrequent target stimuli. For example, when exposed to higher base-rates of 'matching' (i.e., from the same person) than 'non-matching' (i.e., from different people) fingerprint pairs, people more often misjudge 'non-matching' pairs as 'matches'-an error that can falsely implicate an innocent person for a crime they did not commit. In this paper, we investigated whether forensic science training may mitigate the low prevalence effect in fingerprint comparison. Forensic science trainees (n = 111) and untrained novices (n = 114) judged 100 fingerprint pairs as 'matches' or 'non-matches' where the matching pair occurrence was either high (90%) or equal (50%). Some participants were also asked to use a novel feature-comparison strategy as a potential attenuation technique for the low prevalence effect. Regardless of strategy, both trainees and novices were susceptible to the effect, such that they more often misjudged non-matching pairs as matches when non-matches were rare. These results support the robust nature of the low prevalence effect in visual comparison and have important applied implications for forensic decision-making in the criminal justice system., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background & Methods: National protests in the summer of 2020 drew attention to the significant presence of police in marginalized communities. Recent social movements have called for substantial police reforms, including "defunding the police," a phrase originating from a larger, historical abolition movement advocating that public investments be redirected away from the criminal justice system and into social services and health care. Although research has demonstrated the expansive role of police to respond a broad range of social problems and health emergencies, existing research has yet to fully explore the capacity for health insurance policy to influence rates of arrest in the population. To fill this gap, we examine the potential effect of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on arrests in 3,035 U.S. counties. We compare county-level arrests using FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program Data before and after Medicaid expansion in 2014-2016, relative to counties in non-expansion states. We use difference-in-differences (DID) models to estimate the change in arrests following Medicaid expansion for overall arrests, and violent, drug, and low-level arrests., Results: Police arrests significantly declined following the expansion of Medicaid under the ACA. Medicaid expansion produced a 20-32% negative difference in overall arrests rates in the first three years. We observe the largest negative differences for drug arrests: we find a 25-41% negative difference in drug arrests in the three years following Medicaid expansion, compared to non-expansion counties. We observe a 19-29% negative difference in arrests for violence in the three years after Medicaid expansion, and a decrease in low-level arrests between 24-28% in expansion counties compared to non-expansion counties. Our main results for drug arrests are robust to multiple sensitivity analyses, including a state-level model., Conclusions: Evidence in this paper suggests that expanded Medicaid insurance reduced police arrests, particularly drug-related arrests. Combined with research showing the harmful health consequences of chronic policing in disadvantaged communities, greater insurance coverage creates new avenues for individuals to seek care, receive treatment, and avoid criminalization. As police reform is high on the agenda at the local, state, and federal level, our paper supports the perspective that broad health policy reforms can meaningfully reduce contact with the criminal justice system under historic conditions of mass criminalization., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The Monitoring and Analysis Centre for the fight against money laundering is a valid financial information body which is responsible for collecting, analysing and providing financial information and conducting international exchanges of financial information for relevant undertakings. By constructing the analysis of the monitoring of the local and foreign currency and of the data transmission subsystem in the plan for the transitional period against In the light of the above, the Commission will continue to monitor the implementation of the acquis in the light of the progress made in implementing the acquis future new systems. The purpose of this paper is to study the research and implementation of the security control of the anti-money laundering monitoring and analysis system. This article studies the application of decision tree analysis technology in the anti-money laundering monitoring system of insurance companies to achieve the purpose of improving the anti-money laundering monitoring technology and capabilities of insurance companies. The emergence of data mining technology provides a new system solution for anti-money laundering monitoring. For insurance anti-money laundering, how to find potential money laundering cases in suspicious and large surrender transactions is key. The experimental data show that the decision tree method is the best predictor of the customer category between the insurance application and the surrender days. The decision tree analysis technology has greatly improved the security monitoring capabilities of the insurance in the anti-money laundering monitoring system. Experimental data shows that the security control capabilities of the anti-money laundering monitoring and analysis system make the accuracy of the entire model reach 95%, the accuracy of large and suspicious transactions reaches 88.6%, and the correct classification of customers is about 99.6%., Competing Interests: These no potential competing interests in our paper. And all authors have seen the manuscript and approved to submit to your journal. We confirm that the content of the manuscript has not been published or submitted for publication elsewhere.

Personal motivation is a key factor in the service of foster care, impending both on the welfare of the child and on the satisfaction of the carer. This paper explores the benefits, challenges and dilemmas involved in the job of professional (i.e. state-supported) foster carer in Romania–a country where the issue of child protection has drawn a great deal of international attention over the last thirty years. The principal hypothesis concerns whether the benefits, challenges and dilemmas identified by foster carers are influenced by the factors that led to their taking up this kind of work. Quantitative research was conducted using a questionnaire as the main tool. The paper takes a descriptive, cross-sectional and multifactorial approach. Sampling was carried out by self-selecting method, and the study involved 51 participants. The research project identified a statistically significant variation in the challenges and dilemmas reported by foster carers. Thus, the results of the study show that the majority of the carers indicate a primarily intrinsic motivation for their work. By way of conclusion, it is argued that social workers, operating in collaboration with multidisciplinary teams, can offer carers support in managing more difficult periods in the child–carer relationship, thus enhancing the sustainability of the foster care service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examined, with a behavioral paradigm, to what extent people choose to view stimuli that portray death, violence or harm. Based on briefly presented visual cues, participants made choices between highly arousing, negative images and positive or negative alternatives. The negative images displayed social scenes that involved death, violence or harm (e.g., war scene), or decontextualized, close-ups of physical harm (e.g., mutilated face) or natural threat (e.g., attacking shark). The results demonstrated that social negative images were chosen significantly more often than other negative categories. Furthermore, participants preferred social negative images over neutral images. Physical harm images and natural threat images were not preferred over neutral images, but were chosen in about thirty-five percent of the trials. These results were replicated across three different studies, including a study that presented verbal descriptions of images as pre-choice cues. Together, these results show that people deliberately subject themselves to negative images. With this, the present paper demonstrates a dynamic relationship between negative information and behavior and advances new insights into the phenomenon of morbid curiosity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the existing centralized location services system structure, the server is easily attracted and be the communication bottleneck. It caused the disclosure of users’ location. For this, we presented a new distributed collaborative recommendation strategy that is based on the distributed system. In this strategy, each node establishes profiles of their own location information. When requests for location services appear, the user can obtain the corresponding location services according to the recommendation of the neighboring users’ location information profiles. If no suitable recommended location service results are obtained, then the user can send a service request to the server according to the construction of a k-anonymous data set with a centroid position of the neighbors. In this strategy, we designed a new model of distributed collaborative recommendation location service based on the users’ location information profiles and used generalization and encryption to ensure the safety of the user’s location information privacy. Finally, we used the real location data set to make theoretical and experimental analysis. And the results show that the strategy proposed in this paper is capable of reducing the frequency of access to the location server, providing better location services and protecting better the user’s location privacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Large numbers of young people die yearly due to homicide, but little is known about homicide during adolescence. Research primarily focuses on youth violence among young men and masks important gender-related factors inherent in the adolescent age group. Although young women are less likely to be victims of homicide, violence against women is an important form of violence experienced during adolescence. In this paper, we describe the prevalence of and gender difference in adolescent homicide in South Africa in 2009. Methods: We conducted a retrospective national mortuary-based study to identify all child homicides (boys and girls < 18 years) in 2009 in a proportionate sample of mortuaries. Victim, perpetrator and crime data were collected in three phases: cases were identified from the mortuary register, the autopsy report and from police interviews. In this paper we focus on the adolescent group, aged 10 to 17 years. Findings: We identified 674 (95% CI: 520–823) adolescent homicides for 2009, with more male (520) than female (154) homicides. This gender disparity increased as children aged, with the male homicide rate 27.9/100 000 population (95% CI: 20.3–35.5), nearly 5 times the female rate (4.5:1) of 6.5/ 100 000 population (95% CI: 4.7–8.2) in older adolescents (15–17 year old). Adolescent males were significantly more likely (61.2%) to die in a public space compared to female adolescents (39.3%) but more adolescent females (48.4%) died at home compared to adolescent males (32.9%). Adolescent females (42.1%) were mainly killed by a family member or intimate partner while adolescent males were predominantly (58%) killed by an acquaintance. Conclusion: We found a distinct gender pattern for adolescent homicide in South Africa. This pattern appears to be driven by gender norms that support violence. South Africa requires an investment in developing evidence informed interventions to reduce violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of outlaw bikers is growing globally. Despite this, little research exists on these groups and their alleged violent tendencies. To address this, the current paper uses unique data to examine whether gang violence causes outlaw biker violence. The period examined runs from mid-2008 until early 2012 during which violent clashes occurred between outlaw bikers and street gang members involved in an alleged conflict in Copenhagen, Denmark. A precise description of each individual act of violence would make it possible to identify whether specific acts were carried out in furtherance of the alleged conflict. This would allow one to determine whether outlaw bikers commit violence on behalf of their club. However, such knowledge is unavailable. The paper therefore takes a different approach by examining whether acts of violence committed by the two groups are statistically associated. In other words, it considers whether one or more acts can be described as retaliatory during the observation periods. The sample consists of 640 individuals involved with the Hells Angels Motorcycle Club or with non-biker street gangs–both of which are present in Copenhagen. Statistical models are used to predict 143 violent events committed by 196 outlaw bikers. The results suggest that violence committed by gang members predicts violence committed by outlaw bikers. This indicates that violent acts committed by outlaw bikers are at least partly a form of retaliation carried out on behalf of their club. The paper expands the literature on the kinds of inter-group, micro-level processes that can lead to reciprocal violence by including outlaw bikers in a literature that has previously focused on non-biker street gangs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In this paper we present a model of parameters to aesthetically characterize films using a multi-disciplinary approach: by combining film theory, visual low-level video descriptors (modeled in order to supply aesthetic information) and classification techniques using machine and deep learning. Methods: Four different tests have been developed, each for a different application, proving the model's usefulness. These applications are: aesthetic style clustering, prediction of production year, genre detection and influence on film popularity. Results: The results are compared against high-level information to determine the accuracy of the model to classify films without knowing such information previously. The main difference with other film characterization approaches is that we are able to isolate the influence of high-level descriptors to really understand the relevance of low-level features and, accordingly propose a useful set of low-level visual descriptors for that purpose. This model has been tested with a representative number of films to prove that it can be used for different applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV) is high (54%) in Bangladesh. Moreover, female garment workers report higher rates of IPV and are also vulnerable to workplace violence (WPV). Experience of violence puts women at increased risk of developing depressive symptoms, which are related with low self-esteem, lower life satisfaction and lower productivity. To our knowledge, there has been no previous research on depression among female garment workers and its connections to IPV and WPV in Bangladesh. This paper aims to address this gap by studying the relationship of IPV, WPV and depression among female garment workers. Methods: The data for this paper comes from a cross-sectional survey of female garment workers (n = 800) conducted as baseline survey of a quasi-experimental study known as HERrespect. Survey data were collected during September-December, 2016 among randomly selected female garment workers from eight garment factories in and around Dhaka city. Structural equation modelling was conducted to explore the relationship among IPV, WPV and depression. Results: The findings show high rates of any IPV (69%); WPV (73%, experienced or witnessed) and depressive symptomatology (40%) among female garment workers. The analysis of pathways shows that IPV impacts a woman’s experience of WPV and work related stress leading to the development of depression; while WPV had direct and mediated pathways to depression. Experience of controlling by their husband leads to WPV and increased work related stress, and thus leads to depression. It also reveals that a worker’s ability to mobilize resources in emergency, however, increased self-esteem and reduced work related stress. Conclusion: This study shows the pathways through which experience of IPV and WPV lead to development of depressive symptoms among female garment workers. The link between women’s ability to mobilize resources with self-esteem and work related stress indicates the need for socio-economic empowerment of women and may suggest that combined intervention to address IPV and women’s empowerment could be successful in dealing with WPV and mental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the current severe situation of illegal land use in China, it is of great significance to explore the impact of the evolution and promotion of land law enforcement effectiveness, which will improve China's land law enforcement system and effectively curb illegal land use. This paper explains the changes and enhancements of the effectiveness of land law enforcement since the implementation of China's National Land Supervision System in terms of the deterrence, difficulty, and strength of land law enforcement, and explores the role of land law enforcement effectiveness in changing illegal land use behaviors from a theoretical level. Then, a corresponding empirical test was carried out using the provincial panel data of Mainland China from 2007 to 2016. The results show that the increase in land law enforcement deterrence and strength will help reduce the number of illegal land use cases, but it will drive the lawbreakers to "commit major cases in desperation", leading to the increase of the degree of illegal land use; and with the decrease of land law enforcement difficulty, the degree of illegal land use will be significantly reduced. At the end of this paper, several policy suggestions are put forward to effectively curb the illegal land use from the perspective of improving the land law enforcement system and enhancing the effectiveness of law enforcement., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

This paper uses resilience as a lens through which to analyse disasters and other major threats to patterns of criminal behaviour. A set of indicators and mathematical models are introduced that aim to quantitatively describe changes in crime levels in comparison to what could otherwise be expected, and what might be expected by way of adaptation and subsequent resumption of those patterns. The validity of the proposed resilience assessment tool is demonstrated using commercial theft data from the COVID-19 pandemic period. A 64 per cent reduction in crime was found in the studied city (China) during an 83-day period, before daily crime levels bounced back to higher than expected values. The proposed resilience indicators are recommended as benchmarking instruments for evaluating and comparing the global impact of COVID-19 policies on crime and public safety., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Income inequality is blamed for being the main driver of violent crime by the majority of the literature. However, earlier work on the topic largely neglects the role of poverty and income levels as opposed to income inequality. The current paper uses all court verdicts for homicide cases in China between 2014 and 2016, as well as various inequality measures calculated from 2005 mini census data together with a host of control variables to shed light on the relationship at the detailed Chinese prefecture-level. The results suggest that it is the poverty and low income level, rather than income inequality, that is positively related to homicide rates. We show that the internal rural-urban migration from more violent localities contributes to the destination cities' homicide rates. The poverty-homicide association implies that instead of "relative deprivation", "absolute deprivation" is mainly responsible for violent crime. Poverty is the mother of crime. -Marcus Aurelius (121-180AD), Emperor of the Roman Empire., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

This paper evaluates a method of generating a unique dataset that has been underused-a Freedom of Information (FOI) request. The UK's FOI Act came into force in 2005, allowing the public to make requests of publicly held data. We set out to understand the determinants of the quality responses to FOI requests. We also explain how requests can be made and provide suggestions to construct effective data-driven requests. We applied for data on hate crime from all police forces and on uptake of maternity leave from all universities. We find that observable characteristics of the local area, police force and universities neither determine whether the request was fulfilled, nor the speed of response, suggesting that the data from these FOI requests are representative of the institutions from which they were requested., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Labeling theory suggests that criminal justice interventions amplify offending behavior. Theories of intergenerational transmission suggest why children of convicted parents have a higher risk of offending. This paper combines these two perspectives and investigates whether labeling effects might be stronger for children of convicted parents. We first investigated labeling effects within the individual: we examined the impact of a conviction between ages 19–26 on self-reported offending behavior between 27–32 while controlling for self-reported behavior between 15–18. Our results show that a conviction predicted someone’s later self-reported offending behavior, even when previous offending behavior was taken into account. Second, we investigated whether having a convicted parent influenced this association. When we added this interaction to the analysis, a labeling effect was only visible among people with convicted parents. This supports the idea of cumulative disadvantage: Labeling seems stronger for people who are already in a disadvantaged situation having a convicted parent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indicators of compliance and efficiency in combatting money laundering, collected by EUROSTAT, are plagued with shortcomings. In this paper, I have carried out a forensic analysis on a 2003–2010 dataset of indicators of compliance and efficiency in combatting money laundering, that European Union member states self-reported to EUROSTAT, and on the basis of which, their efforts were evaluated. I used Benford’s law to detect any anomalous statistical patterns and found that statistical anomalies were also consistent with strategic manipulation. According to Benford’s law, if we pick a random sample of numbers representing natural processes, and look at the distribution of the first digits of these numbers, we see that, contrary to popular belief, digit 1 occurs most often, then digit 2, and so on, with digit 9 occurring in less than 5% of the sample. Without prior knowledge of Benford’s law, since people are not intuitively good at creating truly random numbers, deviations thereof can capture strategic alterations. In order to eliminate other sources of deviation, I have compared deviations in situations where incentives and opportunities for manipulation existed and in situations where they did not. While my results are not a conclusive proof of strategic manipulation, they signal that countries that faced incentives and opportunities to misinform the international community about their efforts to combat money laundering may have manipulated these indicators. Finally, my analysis points to the high potential for disruption that the manipulation of national statistics has, and calls for the acknowledgment that strategic manipulation can be an unintended consequence of the international community’s pressure on countries to put combatting money laundering on the top of their national agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Research about the mental health of children in Francophone West Africa is scarce. This paper examines the relationships between adverse childhood experiences, including exposure to violence and exploitation, and mental health outcomes among children living in ultra-poverty in rural Burkina Faso. Methods: This paper utilizes baseline data collected from 360 children ages 10–15 and 360 of their mothers recruited from twelve impoverished villages in the Nord Region of Burkina, located near the Sahel Desert and affected by extreme food insecurity. We used a Latent Class Analysis to identify underlying patterns of maltreatment. Further, the relationships between latent classes and mental health outcomes were tested using mixed effected regression models adjusted for clustering within villages. Results: About 15% of the children in the study scored above the clinical cut-off for depression, 17.8% for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and 6.4% for low self-esteem. The study identified five distinct sub-groups (or classes) of children based on their exposure to adverse childhood experiences. Children with the highest exposure to violence at home, at work and in the community (Abused and Exploited class) and children not attending school and working for other households, often away from their families (External Laborer class), demonstrated highest symptoms of depression and trauma. Despite living in adverse conditions and working to assist families, the study also identified a class of children who were not exposed to any violence at home or at work (Healthy and Non-abused class). Children in this class demonstrated significantly higher self-esteem (b = 0.92, SE = 0.45, p<0.05) and lower symptoms of trauma (b = -3.90, SE = 1.52, p<0.05). Conclusions: This study offers insight into the psychological well-being of children in the context of ultra-poverty in Burkina Faso and associated context-specific adverse childhood experiences. Identifying specific sub-groups of children with increased exposure to life stressors has implications for program developers. Study findings indicate a further need to explore the mental health consequences of traumatic experiences within the context of ultra-poverty and to develop integrated economic and psychosocial interventions that prevent or mitigate childhood adversities linked with the family-level poverty and violence in the family. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest in modeling contemporary crime trends, a task that has historically been considered valuable to the public, researchers, and policymakers, is resurging. Advancements in criminology have made it clear that understanding crime trends necessarily involves understanding trends in how likely individuals are to report crimes to the police, as well as how likely the police are to accurately record those crimes. In this paper, we use dynamic linear models to simultaneously model the time series for several crime types in order to gain insight into trends in crime and crime reporting. We analyze crime data from Chicago spanning 2007 through 2016 and show how correlations in the way crime trends evolve may contain information about drivers of crime and crime reporting. We provide evidence of substantial differences in the relationships between the trends of crimes of different types depending on whether crimes are violent or nonviolent and whether or not crimes are tracked in the FBI's Uniform Crime Report., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Community structures in collaboration networks reflect the natural tendency of individuals to organize their work in groups in order to better achieve common goals. In most of the cases, individuals exploit their connections to introduce themselves to new areas of interests, giving rise to multifaceted collaborations which span different fields. In this paper, we analyse collaborations in science and among movie actors as multiplex networks, where the layers represent respectively research topics and movie genres, and we show that communities indeed coexist and overlap at the different layers of such systems. We then propose a model to grow multiplex networks based on two mechanisms of intra and inter-layer triadic closure which mimic the real processes by which collaborations evolve. We show that our model is able to explain the multiplex community structure observed empirically, and we infer the strength of the two underlying social mechanisms from real-world systems. Being also able to correctly reproduce the values of intra-layer and inter-layer assortativity correlations, the model contributes to a better understanding of the principles driving the evolution of social networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Household debt in Thailand has become a serious problem, particularly for the elderly, because they have less ability to pay debts compared to the working population. Therefore, better understanding of the elderly's debt and delinquency is crucial in policy formulation for the aged society. Previous works have focused on the elderly's debt, either at the macro or individual levels. Little is known about geographic differences at the regional level. Knowing where the elderly debt and delinquency tend to cluster could guide area-specific policies to tackle the elderly financial stability. This research aims to examine the spatio-temporal distribution of the debt and delinquency of the near-elderly population (age 50–59) and the elderly (age 60 and above) using data from the National Credit Bureau of Thailand from 2008 to 2019. The analysis focuses on various types of loans. Spatial clusters are identified by Moran's I and Local Geary statistics. The results show that the pattern of elderly debt and delinquency generally follows the life cycle hypothesis, except for credit card and business-related loans. There exist spatial clusters and spatial differences in different types of loans, suggesting regional heterogeneities that require area-specific policy responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous research has identified the impacts of legal frameworks that criminalize HIV non-disclosure among people living with HIV (e.g., elevated stigma and violence). However, far less is known about the perspectives or experiences of people-particularly, men-who are HIV-seronegative or who are unaware of their status. The objective of this paper is to describe the health and social risks that young men perceive to be associated with an HIV diagnosis in the context of Canada's current legal framework pertaining to HIV non-disclosure., Methods: We analyzed data from 100 in-depth interviews (2013-2016) conducted with 85 young men ages 18-30 in Vancouver on the topic of the criminalization of HIV non-disclosure., Results: Our analysis revealed two dominant narratives in relation to HIV criminalization: (a) interrogation and (b) justification. An interrogation narrative problematized the moral permissibility of criminalizing HIV non-disclosure. In this narrative, Canada's HIV non-disclosure legal framework was characterized as creating unjust barriers to HIV testing uptake, as well as impeding access to and reducing retention in care for those living with HIV. Conversely, a justification narrative featured a surprising number of references to HIV as a "death sentence", despite effective treatments being universally available in Canada. However, most of those who presented the justification narrative asserted that the criminalization of HIV non-disclosure was morally justified in light of the perceived negative stigma-related impacts of HIV (e.g., discrimination; being ostracized from sex or romantic partners, friends, family). The justification narrative often reflected a belief that the legal framework provides both punishment and deterrence, which were perceived to supersede any barriers to care for both HIV-positive and -negative individuals., Conclusion: Public education regarding contemporary medical advances in HIV may help contest lay understandings of HIV as a "death sentence", which is particularly relevant to destabilizing justification narratives. However, significant strengthening of HIV stigma-reduction efforts will be needed to move society away from narratives that attempt to justify Canada's current HIV non-disclosure legal framework., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

‘Honour killing’, the murder of women to preserve family reputation, is well recognised but infrequently systematically researched. This paper has three hypotheses. First, in families where women report an ‘honour killing’ there is more violence against women and girls, second these women are more likely to report more patriarchal gender attitudes than others, and third these families are exposed to higher levels of poverty. We asked (n = 1461) women enrolled in a trial in Afghanistan, and (n = 535) in a population-based sample in the occupied Palestinian Territories (oPT) if there had ever been an ‘honour killing’ in their family. In Afghanistan, 2.3% (n = 33), and the oPT 7.7% (n = 41), reported this. We built separate multivariable logistic regression models for each country, and for married and unmarried women in each country. Among Afghan married women, ‘honour killing’ was associated with borrowing because of hunger (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]8.71, 95%CI 2.27–33.40), easier access to money in emergency (aOR11.39, 95%CI 3.05–42.50), and violence within the family; intimate partner violence (IPV) (aOR3.73, 95%CI 1.12–12.36), and IPV and mother-in-law violence (aOR10.52, 2.60–42.56). For unmarried women in Afghanistan, ‘honour killing’ was associated with easier access money in an emergency (aOR4.06, 95%CI 0.85–19.37), household violence (hit by parent or sibling, or parent and sibling [aOR5.47, 95%CI 0.82–36.70; aOR7.37, 95%CI 1.24–43.86, respectively]); more childhood traumas (aOR1.24, 1.11–1.38), and more patriarchal personal gender attitudes (aOR1.24, 1.00–1.54). In the oPT experiencing IPV (aOR3.07, 1.02–9.23) and borrowing and experiencing IPV (aOR5.89, 1.84–18.79) were risks for married women. For unmarried women borrowing because of hunger was associated with higher risk (aOR2.33, 95%CI 1.18–4.85). Despite limitations–specifically the potential women were reporting the same ‘honour killing’—our analysis suggests ‘honour killings’ are associated with violence, patriarchy, and poverty. Research is needed for the prevention of ‘honour killing’, which must address the root causes. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Institution-centered accounts of generalized trust rely on the idea that law-breaking and state’s unfairness lower individuals’ propensity to trust fellow citizens because of a weaker confidence in the state. Despite the theoretical relevance attributed to this mediation mechanism, no empirical analysis in the literature has focused on examining its correlational validity. Using data from the European Social Survey (2010), the Quality of Government EU Regional data, and EUROSTAT, this paper assesses the intervening role of institutional trust on the relationship between crime rates, state’s fairness, and generalized trust. Results from a Multilevel SEM (MSEM) mediation analysis indicate that trust in institutions strongly mediates the relationship between violent crimes (i.e. homicide) and generalized trust but not the one between property crimes (i.e. vehicle thefts and robberies) and generalized trust. On the other hand, indicators of fairness (i.e. impartiality and corruption) are all mediated by institutional trust, though impartiality maintains a significant direct effect. Overall, findings support the institutional approach, confirming that the negative relationship between ineffective and unfair institutions and generalized trust passes mostly through people’s lost faith in the state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to describe the prevalent forms of intimate partner violence (IPV), and the factors associated with IPV among women and men living in the two migrant communities of Baglung district, Nepal. 357 adult women and men were enrolled following a family model, interviewing young married women with daughter-in-law status in the home, their husbands, and mothers-in-law and fathers-in-laws using an electronic questionnaire. Random effects regression modelling compared men and women, as well as young married women with daughter-in-law status and older women with mothers-in-law with status. 28.6% of women had ever experienced physical and/or sexual violence by an intimate partner compared to 18.2% of men ever perpetrated these forms of violence against their wives. Being older, male controlling behaviour and poor relations with husband increased women’s IPV in their lifetime while perceptions that the mother-in-law is kind were protective. Being ashamed of being unemployed and childhood trauma were associated with men perpetrating IPV in their lifetime. Borrowing money or food increased young married women’s lifetime IPV risk while mother-in-law cruelty and male control increased older married women’s lifetime IPV exposure. Factors associated with IPV in the past year among men were being younger, job seeking, experiences of childhood trauma and depression exposure among men while difficulty accessing money for emergencies, holding inequitable gender attitudes, and depression was associated with women’s increased IPV exposure. Unemployment stress, holding inequitable gender attitudes and mother-in-law kindness were associated with young women’s increased IPV risk and hunger, mother-in-law cruelty and depression with older women’s IPV risk. There is a need to critically challenge harmful social and gender norms by using approaches that are sensitive to young married women’s position and unequal gender relations in the family. IPV prevention interventions need to employ a holistic approach that combines changing social and gender norms and improving socioeconomic conditions of women living in migrant communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of large renewable energy projects is characterized by the great uncertainties associated with their administrative complexity and their constructive characteristics. For proper management, it is necessary to undertake a thorough project risk assessment prior to construction. The work presented in this paper is based on a hierarchical risk structure identified by a group of experts, from which a Probabilistic Fuzzy Sets with Analysis Hierarchy Process (PFSAHP) was applied. This probabilistic analysis approach used expert opinion based on the Monte Carlo Method that allows for extracting more information from the original data. In addition, the coherence of the experts’ opinions is assessed using a novel parameter known as Confidence Level, which allows for adjusting the opinions of experts and weighting their judgments regarding impact and probability according to their coherence. This model has the advantage of offering a risk analysis in the early stages of the management of renewable energy projects in which there is no detailed information. This model is also more accurate than the classic fuzzy methodology when working with complete distribution functions, whilst it avoids the loss of information that results from the traditional mathematical operations with Fuzzy numbers. To test the model, it was applied to a 250 MW photovoltaic solar plant construction project located in southeast of Spain (Region of Murcia). As a result of the application of the proposed method, risk rankings are obtained with respect to the cost, the time, the scope and from a general point of view of the project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This paper focuses on the issue of intimate partner violence and, specifically, on the distribution of femicides over time and the existence of copycat effects. This is the subject of an ongoing debate often triggered by the social alarm following multiple intimate partner homicides (IPHs) occurring in a short span of time. The aim of this research is to study the evolution of IPHs and provide a far-reaching answer by rigorously analyzing and searching for patterns in data on femicides. Methods: The study analyzes an official dataset, provided by the system VioGén of the Secretaría de Estado de Seguridad (Spanish State Secretariat for Security), including all the femicides occurred in Spain in 2007-2017. A statistical methodology to identify temporal interdependencies in count time series is proposed and applied to the dataset. The same methodology can be applied to other contexts. Results: There has been a decreasing trend in the number of femicides per year. No interdependencies among the temporal distribution of femicides are observed. Therefore, according to data, the existence of copycat effect in femicides cannot be claimed. Conclusions: Around 2011 there was a clear change in the average number of femicides which has not picked up. Results allow for an informed answer to the debate on copycat effect in Spanish femicides. The planning of femicides prevention activities should not be a reaction to a perceived increase in their occurrence. As a copycat effect is not detected in the studied time period, there is no evidence supporting the need to censor media reports on femicides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sexual and physical abuse in childhood creates a great health burden including on mental and reproductive health. A possible link between child abuse and HIV infection has increasingly attracted attention. This paper investigated whether a history of child physical and sexual abuse is associated with HIV infection among adult women. Methods: A cross sectional survey was conducted among 2042 postnatal women (mean age = 26y) attending six public primary health care clinics in Harare, Zimbabwe within 6 weeks post-delivery. Clinic records were reviewed for mother’s antenatal HIV status. Participants were interviewed about childhood abuse including physical or sexual abuse before 15 years of age, forced first sex before 16, HIV risk factors such as age difference at first sex before age 16. Multivariate analyses assessed the associations between mother’s HIV status and child physical and sexual abuse while controlling for confounding variables. Results: More than one in four (26.6%) reported abuse before the age of 15: 14.6% physical abuse and 9.1% sexual abuse,14.3% reported forced first sex and 9.0% first sex before 16 with someone 5+ years older. Fifteen percent of women tested HIV positive during the recent antenatal care visit. In multivariate analysis, childhood physical abuse (aOR 3.30 95%CI 1.58–6.90), sexual abuse (3.18 95%CI: 1.64–6.19), forced first sex (aOR 1.42, 95%CI: 1.00–2.02), and 5+ years age difference with first sex partner (aOR 1.66 95%CI 1.09–2.53) were independently associated with HIV infection. Conclusion: This study highlights that child physical and/or sexual abuse may increase risk for HIV acquisition. Further research is needed to assess the pathways to HIV acquisition from childhood to adulthood. Prevention of child abuse must form part of the HIV prevention agenda in Sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) are associated with poor health outcomes, underlining the significance of early identification and intervention. Currently, there is no validated tool to screen for ACEs exposure in childhood. To fill this gap, we designed and implemented a pediatric ACEs questionnaire in an urban pediatric Primary Care Clinic. Questionnaire items were selected and modified based on literature review of existing childhood adversity tools. Children twelve years and under were screened via caregiver report, using the developed instrument. Cognitive interviews were conducted with caregivers, health providers, and clinic staff to assess item interpretation, clarity, and English/Spanish language equivalency. Using a rapid cycle assessment, information gained from the interviews were used to iteratively change the instrument. Additional questions assessed acceptability of screening within primary care and preferences around administration. Twenty-eight (28) caregivers were administered the questionnaire. Cognitive interviews conducted among caregivers and among 16 health providers and clinic staff resulted in the changes in wording and addition of examples in the items to increase face validity. In the final instrument, no new items were added; however, two items were merged and one item was split into three separate items. While there was a high level of acceptability of the overall questionnaire, some caregivers reported discomfort with the sexual abuse, separation from caregiver, and community violence items. Preference for methods of administration were split between tablet and paper formats. The final Pediatric ACE and other Determinants of Health Questionnaire is a 17-item instrument with high face validity and acceptability for use within primary care settings. Further evaluation on the reliability and construct validity of the instrument is being conducted prior to wide implementation in pediatric practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a huge public health, development and human rights issue worldwide. Despite the fact that working women in patriarchal contexts commonly report higher level of IPV, literature on this subject is still scanty. This paper assessed the magnitude of different types of IPV against female garment workers and identified its correlates using cross-sectional survey data collected during September-December, 2016 from 800 female garment workers randomly selected from lists provided by eight garment factories in and around Dhaka, Bangladesh. The results reveal high levels of IPV experienced by the workers (physical = 34%; sexual = 43%; economic = 35%, last 12 months). Logistic regression results were nuanced. While the worker’s ability to mobilize resources in crises reduced IPV, her savings beyond a threshold increased its likelihood. Moreover, her ownership of jewellery/ large household assets increased the likelihood of IPV. Having moderately or highly controlling husband, substance abuse by husband and his involvement in extramarital sex predicted IPV. Although the worker’s education up to 6 years or more was protective, education more than the husband increased the likelihood of IPV. Young age, having two or more children, experience of non-partner sexual violence and high acceptance of IPV increased the likelihood of IPV. Middle income group protected against IPV, while household food insecurity increased its likelihood. Work at a factory in the Export Processing Zone protected against IPV. The findings indicate that financial empowerment alone is not sufficient to protect the workers from IPV; interventions that combine gender empowerment training for workers in the context of better factory working conditions may be useful in reducing IPV; working with men is essential in this endeavour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Violence against women by an intimate partner (DV) is a serious public health and human rights issue. Attitudes justifying DV strongly predict its perpetration and victimisation. This paper presents gendered ecological analyses of the societal acceptance of DV in 49 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) across geographical regions. Methods and findings: We utilised data from 49 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2005 and 2017, United Nations Statistics and topic-specific meta-databases. DV acceptance was measured as the justification of ‘wife-beating’ in at least one of five circumstances, and by the summative scale. Stepwise multiple linear regression examined country-level social, economic and political empowerment predictors of societal acceptance of DV amongst women, men, and the aggregate gender difference. Women were more likely than men to justify DV in Sub-Saharan Africa and South (east) Asia with societal acceptance of DV being more widespread in these regions compared with Latin America, the Caribbean, Central/West Asia and Europe. Political conflict and limited economic rights for women were associated with higher levels of DV acceptance amongst women and men. Men in more democratic countries were less likely to justify DV. Amongst women, higher national female literacy rates predicted lower levels of justification. There were higher levels of DV acceptance amongst women and a wider aggregate gender difference in countries with a larger representation of women in national parliament. Conclusion: Justification of DV is widespread amongst women and men in LMICs with acceptance rates varying across countries and regions. Gender differences in the impact of contextual factors on DV acceptance supports a gendered approach to national-level interventions. Our findings highlight the need for tailored interventions targeting DV acceptance in conflict-impacted societies. The emphasis of inter(national) policies on the ‘empowerment’ domains of widely-used gender (in)equality indices need to be coupled with strategies tackling discriminatory gender norms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Four decades of conflict has indelibly impacted the lives of Afghans, exposing many to different forms of trauma. The aim of this paper investigate a hypothesis that (mostly war related) trauma is a key driver of partner violence in Afghanistan. Methods: 1,463 women aged 18–48 were recruited into a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate a women empowerment intervention in 8 villages of Kabul and Nangarhar provinces. The women were interviewed at baseline. The analysis uses multivariable logistic regression and structural equation modelling (SEM) to describe relationships between measures. Results: 57.4% of women reported exposure to one of four types of trauma: 23.3% an armed attack, 39.4% had felt close to death, 10.6% witnessed a friend or family member being killed and 21.4% witnessed the death of a stranger or someone unknown. Trauma exposure was associated with being older, Pashtan, madrassa educated, and food insecure. Women who were trauma exposed were more likely to have ever experienced IPV, have hit their children in the last 4 weeks, and be hit by a sibling or relative of their husband or their mother-in-law in the last year. They held less patriarchal personal gender attitudes and perceived the community to be more patriarchal. The SEM showed that all pathways between trauma exposure and IPV were ultimately mediated by either (mostly mental) ill-health or quarrelling, but not both of these. There were multiple paths through which trauma exposure impacted women’s past year experience of physical IPV. One was mediated by childhood trauma exposure and a latent variable for ill health. Other paths were mediated by women’s education and personal gender attitudes and ill-health, or else by quarrelling. Trauma exposure was related to lower educational levels. Another path was mediated by less patriarchal personal gender attitudes and ill health. Community gender attitudes was a mediating variable on a path which was also mediated by ill health and another mediated by quarrelling. It was also a mediator on a path which included personal gender attitudes and ill-health. Food insecurity mediated another path with ill health. It was also connected to childhood trauma, community gender attitudes and educational level. Conclusion: Trauma exposure due to conflict will persist until the conflict ends but the impact on women can be ameliorated. This analysis suggests interventions to reduce women’s exposure to IPV should focus on reducing poverty, changing social norms on gender, providing relationship skills to help reduce quarrelling and supporting women’s mental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, various studies have been conducted on the prediction of crime occurrences. This predictive capability is intended to assist in crime prevention by facilitating effective implementation of police patrols. Previous studies have used data from multiple domains such as demographics, economics, and education. Their prediction models treat data from different domains equally. These methods have problems in crime occurrence prediction, such as difficulty in discovering highly nonlinear relationships, redundancies, and dependencies between multiple datasets. In order to enhance crime prediction models, we consider environmental context information, such as broken windows theory and crime prevention through environmental design. In this paper, we propose a feature-level data fusion method with environmental context based on a deep neural network (DNN). Our dataset consists of data collected from various online databases of crime statistics, demographic and meteorological data, and images in Chicago, Illinois. Prior to generating training data, we select crime-related data by conducting statistical analyses. Finally, we train our DNN, which consists of the following four kinds of layers: spatial, temporal, environmental context, and joint feature representation layers. Coupled with crucial data extracted from various domains, our fusion DNN is a product of an efficient decision-making process that statistically analyzes data redundancy. Experimental performance results show that our DNN model is more accurate in predicting crime occurrence than other prediction models.

Urban authorities are continuously drawing up policies to promote cycling among commuters. However, these initiatives are counterproductive for the targeted objectives because they increase opportunities for bicycle theft. This paper explores Inner London as a case study to address place-specific risk factors for bicycle theft at the street-segment level while controlling for seasonal variation. The presence of certain public amenities (e.g., bicycle stands, railway stations, pawnshops) was evaluated against locations of bicycle theft between 2013 and 2016 and risk effects were estimated using negative binomial regression models. Results showed that a greater level of risk stemmed from land-use facilities than from area-based socioeconomic status. The presence of facilities such as train stations, vacant houses, pawnbrokers and payday lenders increased bicycle theft, but no evidence was found that linked police stations with crime levels. The findings have significant implications for urban crime prevention with respect to non-residential land use., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate if domestic violence affected women’s ability to prepare for childbirth. Birth preparedness and complication readiness (BP/CR) includes saving money, arranging transportation, identifying a skilled birth attendant, a health facility, and a blood donor before childbirth. During data collection, Nepal experienced two earthquakes and therefore it was possible to examine associations between domestic violence, women’s BP/CR and effects of the earthquakes. Methods: Women who were between 12 and 28 weeks of gestation participated in a descriptive cross-sectional study at a hospital antenatal clinic in Nepal, where they completed a structured questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics, obstetric history, experiences of domestic violence, and BP/CR. The 5-item Abuse Assessment Screen was used to assess prevalence of domestic violence, and a questionnaire on safe motherhood obtained from Jhpiego was used to assess BP/CR status. The participants self-completed the questionnaire on a tablet computer. Those who reported at least three out of five BP/CR activities were considered prepared for childbirth. Results: A total of 1011 women participated in the study: 433 pre-earthquakes and 578 post-earthquakes. With respect to BP/CR, 78% had identified a health facility for childbirth and 65% had saved money prior to childbirth. Less than 50% had identified a birth attendant to assist with the delivery, transportation to a health facility, or arranged for a potential blood donor. Prior to the earthquakes, 38% were unprepared; by contrast, almost 62% were not prepared after the earthquakes. A significant association was found between exposure to violence and not being prepared for childbirth (AOR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.4–3.9). The women with increased odds of not being prepared for childbirth were illiterate (AOR = 9.9, 95% CI:5.7–17), young (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI:1.6–7.2), from the most oppressed social classes (AOR = 3.0, 95% CI:1.2–7.6), were married to illiterate husbands (AOR = 2.5, 95% CI:1.2–5.2), had attended fewer than four antenatal visits (AOR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.4–2.6), had low incomes (AOR = 1.7, 95% CI:1.1–2.9) or lived in rural settings (AOR = 1.5, 95% confidence interval CI:1.2–2.1). Conclusion: The paper identifies vulnerable women who require extra care from the health system, and draws attention to the need for interventions to reduce the harmful effects of domestic violence on women’s preparations for childbirth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bangladesh reports one of the highest rates of intimate partner violence (IPV) in the world. Despite wide recognition of IPV as an important public health and human rights issue, evidence for IPV prevention is still inadequate. Lack of guidance on effective IPV prevention in Bangladesh resulted in targeting only women in most of the programmes. Methods: This paper assesses impact of SAFE, a 20-month intervention (March 2012 to October 2013) in slums of Dhaka on IPV and tests effectiveness of female only groups vs. no groups; and female + male groups vs. female only groups on IPV in the community using a three-arm cluster randomized controlled trial. SAFE’s core activities included interactive group sessions, community mobilisation, and services. The last two activities were common across arms. Findings: Regression analyses (female survey: baseline n = 2,666; endline n = 2,670) showed no effect of SAFE on IPV against women aged 15–29. However, sub-group analyses demonstrated 21% risk reduction of physical IPV against adolescent girls aged 15–19 in the female + male group intervention arm. A consistent reduction in sexual violence was observed in both female and female + male arms for both groups of women, but the results were not statistically significant. Interpretation: The findings emphasise the importance of combining male and female interventions for reducing physical IPV against adolescent girls. Implications for future research have been discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Child homicide is the most extreme form of violence against children. Within South Africa, children face the highest risk of homicide by parents/caregivers. It is suggested that prolonged exposure to adverse relationships with one’s own parents may be linked to committing child homicide as it may lead to psychological damage and disturb neurological functioning. This paper explores the adverse parent-child relationships of 22 men and women incarcerated for the murder of either a biological child, a stepchild or a child in their care and draws on 49 in-depth interviews with these participants. We illustrate that traumatic parent-child experiences in the form of absent parents, neglect and abuse have a profound impact on establishing unhealthy attachment styles and emphasize the importance of early adverse parent-child bonds in setting the tone for future bonds as adults. The pathway to adopting an adverse attachment with one’s own child is argued to be influenced by these early traumatic emotional experiences within the home. This study highlights the need to acknowledge the impact that adverse parent-child experiences have on the formation of violent forms of parental behavior. It is imperative to reduce children’s emotional vulnerabilities by implementing strategies to strengthen current parenting practices, to promote the development of less violent parent-child relationships and to work towards resolving parents’ experiences of trauma in reducing child homicide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Crime and violence causes massive disruptions to the health, survival and development of populations. In South Africa, incredibly high rates of crime and violence are noted. The country also has a very large youth population whose health, survival and development are key to economic growth. Among other efforts to encourage healthy youth development and the promotion of social activities such as sports, youth groups, choirs and so forth. This study examines the relationship between perceived community safety and the uptake of social activities among youth in South Africa. Data and methods: This paper uses data from the National Youth Lifestyle Survey (2008) with an unweighted sample of 4,391 youth (age12-22 years old). Using chi-square and logistic regression analysis the association between perceived community safety and social activity participation are tested. Findings: The results indicate that youth participation in social activities in South Africa is high (55% of males and 45% of females). Among males, the most prominent activity is sports (51.8%), while for females there is high participation in choir and singing groups (55.68%). More than 50% of males perceive their communities as risky while less than half of females feel the same. Male youth are more likely to participate in social activities if they perceive their communities as risky (OR = 1.04). Females (OR = 0.83), youth have a negative view of their future (OR = 0.43) are less likely to participate in social activities. Conclusions: There exists an association between youth’s perception of community safety and their participation in social activities. Whether sports and groups are protective or enabling environments for youth from unsafe communities is moot. More in-depth research is needed on why youth participate in these clubs and groups to truly understand the role of social activities in South African societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intimate partner violence (IPV) has significant impacts on mental health. Community-focused interventions have shown promising results for addressing IPV in low-income countries, however, little is known about the implications of these interventions for women’s mental wellbeing. This paper analyses data from a community-focused policy intervention in Rwanda collected in 2013–14, including focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with community members (n = 59). Our findings point to three ways in which these community members responded to IPV: (1) reconciling couples experiencing violence, (2) engaging community support through raising cases of IPV during community discussions, (3) navigating resources for women experiencing IPV, including police, social services and legal support. These community responses support women experiencing violence by helping them access available resources and by engaging in community discussions. However, assistance is largely only offered to married women and responses tend to focus exclusively on physical rather than psychological or emotional forms of violence. Drawing on Campbell and Burgess’s (2012) framework for ‘community mental health competence’, we interrogate the potential implications of these responses for the mental wellbeing of women affected by violence. We conclude by drawing attention to the gendered nature of community responses to IPV and the potential impacts this may have for the mental health of women experiencing IPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research suggests that psychological needs can influence the political attitudes of ordinary citizens, often outside of their conscious awareness. In this paper, we investigate whether psychological needs also shape the spending priorities of political elites in the US. Most models of policymaking assume that political elites respond to information in relatively homogeneous ways. We suggest otherwise, and explore one source of difference in information processing, namely, threat sensitivity, which previous research links to increased support for conservative policy attitudes. Drawing on a sample of state-level policymakers, we measure their spending priorities using a survey and their level of threat sensitivity using a standard psychophysiological measure (skin conductance). We find that, like ordinary citizens, threat sensitivity leads even state-level policymakers to prioritize spending on government polices that are designed to minimize threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, major global institutions have amplified their efforts to address intimate partner violence (IPV) against women—a global health and human rights violation affecting 15–71% of reproductive aged women over their lifetimes. Still, some scholars remain concerned about the validity of instruments used for IPV assessment in population-based studies. In this paper, we conducted two validation analyses using novel data from 450 women-men dyads across nine villages in Northern Tanzania. , we examined the level of inter-partner agreement in reporting of men’s physical, sexual, emotional and economic IPV against women in the last three and twelve months prior to the survey, ever in the relationship, and during pregnancy. , we conducted a convergent validity analysis to compare the relative efficacy of men’s self-reports of perpetration and women’s of victimization as a valid indicator of IPV against Tanzanian women using logistic regression models with village-level clustered errors. We found that, for every violence type across the recall periods of the last three months, the last twelve months and ever in the relationship, at least one in three couples disagreed about IPV occurrences in the relationship. Couples’ agreement about physical, sexual and economic IPV during pregnancy was high with 86–93% of couples reporting concordantly. Also, men’s self-reported perpetration had statistically significant associations with at least as many validated risk factors as had women’s self-reported victimization. This finding suggests that men’s self-reports are at least as valid as women’s as an indicator of IPV against women in Northern Tanzania. We recommend more validation studies are conducted in low-income countries, and that data on relationship factors affecting IPV reports and reporting are made available along with data on IPV occurrences. Keywords: Intimate partner violence; measurement; validity; survey research; Tanzania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Software test suites based on the concept of interaction testing are very useful for testing software components in an economical way. Test suites of this kind may be created using mathematical objects called covering arrays. A covering array, denoted by CA(N; t, k, v), is an N × k array over with the property that every N × t sub-array covers all t-tuples of at least once. Covering arrays can be used to test systems in which failures occur as a result of interactions among components or subsystems. They are often used in areas such as hardware Trojan detection, software testing, and network design. Because system testing is expensive, it is critical to reduce the amount of testing required. This paper addresses the Optimal Shortening of Covering ARrays (OSCAR) problem, an optimization problem whose objective is to construct, from an existing covering array matrix of uniform level, an array with dimensions of (N − δ) × (k − Δ) such that the number of missing t-tuples is minimized. Two applications of the OSCAR problem are (a) to produce smaller covering arrays from larger ones and (b) to obtain quasi-covering arrays (covering arrays in which the number of missing t-tuples is small) to be used as input to a meta-heuristic algorithm that produces covering arrays. In addition, it is proven that the OSCAR problem is NP-complete, and twelve different algorithms are proposed to solve it. An experiment was performed on 62 problem instances, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of solving the OSCAR problem to facilitate the construction of new covering arrays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh is a culturally conservative nation with limited freedom for women. A number of studies have evaluated intimate partner violence (IPV) and spousal physical violence in Bangladesh; however, the views of women have been rarely discussed in a quantitative manner. Three nationwide surveys in Bangladesh (2007, 2011, and 2014) were analyzed in this study to characterize the most vulnerable households, where women themselves accepted spousal physical violence as a general norm. 31.3%, 31.9% and 28.7% women in the surveys found justification for physical violence in household in 2007, 2011 and 2014 respectively. The binary logistic model showed wealth index, education of both women and their partner, religion, geographical division, decision making freedom and marital age as significant household contributors for women’s perspective in all the three years. Women in rich households and the highly educated were found to be 40% and 50% less likely to accept domestic physical violence compared to the poorest and illiterate women. Similarly, women who got married before 18 years were 20% more likely accept physical violence in the family as a norm. Apart from these particular groups (richest, highly educated and married after 18 years), other groups had around 30% acceptance rate of household violence. For any successful attempt to reduce spousal physical violence in the traditional patriarchal society of Bangladesh, interventions must target the most vulnerable households and the geographical areas where women experience spousal violence. Although this paper focuses on women’s attitudes, it is important that any intervention scheme should be devised to target both men and women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sexual assault on college campuses is a public health issue. However varying research methodologies (e.g., different sexual assault definitions, measures, assessment timeframes) and low response rates hamper efforts to define the scope of the problem. To illuminate the complexity of campus sexual assault, we collected survey data from a large population-based random sample of undergraduate students from Columbia University and Barnard College in New York City, using evidence based methods to maximize response rates and sample representativeness, and behaviorally specific measures of sexual assault to accurately capture victimization rates. This paper focuses on student experiences of different types of sexual assault victimization, as well as sociodemographic, social, and risk environment correlates. Descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and logistic regression were used to estimate prevalences and test associations. Since college entry, 22% of students reported experiencing at least one incident of sexual assault (defined as sexualized touching, attempted penetration [oral, anal, vaginal, other], or completed penetration). Women and gender nonconforming students reported the highest rates (28% and 38%, respectively), although men also reported sexual assault (12.5%). Across types of assault and gender groups, incapacitation due to alcohol and drug use and/or other factors was the perpetration method reported most frequently (> 50%); physical force (particularly for completed penetration in women) and verbal coercion were also commonly reported. Factors associated with increased risk for sexual assault included non-heterosexual identity, difficulty paying for basic necessities, fraternity/sorority membership, participation in more casual sexual encounters (“hook ups”) vs. exclusive/monogamous or no sexual relationships, binge drinking, and experiencing sexual assault before college. High rates of re-victimization during college were reported across gender groups. Our study is consistent with prevalence findings previously reported. Variation in types of assault and methods of perpetration experienced across gender groups highlight the need to develop prevention strategies tailored to specific risk groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial crises inflict significant human as well as economic hardship. This paper focuses on the human fallout of capital market stress. Financial stress-induced behavioral changes can manifest in higher suicide and murder-suicide rates. We find that these rates also correlate with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (negatively associated; a -0.25% drop [in the rate of change in annual suicides for a +1% change in the independent variable]), unemployment rate (positive link; 0.298% increase), inflation rate (positive link; 0.169% increase in suicide rate levels) and stock market returns adjusted for the risk-free T-Bill rate (negative link; -0.047% drop). Suicides tend to rise during periods of economic turmoil, such as the recent Great Recession of 2008. An analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data of more than 2 million non-natural deaths in the US since 1980 reveals a positive correlation with unemployment levels. We find that suicides and murder-suicides associated with adverse market sentiment lag the initial stressor by up to two years, thus opening a policy window for government/public health intervention to reduce these negative outcomes. Both our models explain about 73 to 76% of the variance in suicide rates and rate of change in suicide rates, and deploy a total of four widely available independent variables (lagged and/or transformed). The results are invariant to the inclusion/exclusion of 2008 data over the 1980–2016 time series, the period of our study. The disconnect between rational decision making, induced by cognitive dissonance and severe financial stress can lead to suboptimal outcomes, not only in the area of investing, but in a direct loss of human capital. No economic system can afford such losses. Finance journal articles focus on monetary alpha, which is the return on a portfolio in excess of the benchmark; we think it is important to be aware of the loss of human capital as a consequence of market instability. This study makes one such an attempt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding the past-year prevalence of male-perpetrated intimate partner violence (IPV) and risk factors is essential for building evidence-based prevention and monitoring progress to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5.2, but so far, population-based research on this remains very limited. The objective of this study is to compare the population prevalence rates of past-year male-perpetrated IPV and nonpartner rape from women's and men's reports across 4 countries in Asia and the Pacific. A further objective is to describe the risk factors associated with women's experience of past-year physical or sexual IPV from women's reports and factors driving women's past-year experience of partner violence.Methods and Findings: This paper presents findings from the United Nations Multi-country Study on Men and Violence in Asia and the Pacific. In the course of this study, in population-based cross-sectional surveys, 5,206 men and 3,106 women aged 18-49 years were interviewed from 4 countries: Cambodia, China, Papua New Guinea (PNG), and Sri Lanka. To measure risk factors, we use logistic regression and structural equation modelling to show pathways and mediators. The analysis was not based on a written plan, and following a reviewer's comments, some material was moved to supplementary files and the regression was performed without variable elimination. Men reported more lifetime perpetration of IPV (physical or sexual IPV range 32.5%-80%) than women did experience (physical or sexual IPV range 27.5%-67.4%), but women's reports of past-year experience (physical or sexual IPV range 8.2%-32.1%) were not very clearly different from men's (physical or sexual IPV range 10.1%-34.0%). Women reported much more emotional/economic abuse (past-year ranges 1.4%-5.7% for men and 4.1%-27.7% for women). Reports of nonpartner rape were similar for men (range 0.8%-1.9% in the past year) and women (range 0.4%-2.3% in past year), except in Bougainville, where they were higher for men (11.7% versus 5.7%). The risk factor modelling shows 4 groups of variables to be important in experience of past-year sexual and/or physical IPV: (1) poverty, (2) all childhood trauma, (3) quarrelling and women's limited control in relationships, and (4) partner factors (substance abuse, unemployment, and infidelity). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was largest for quarrelling often, but the second greatest PAF was for the group related to exposure to violence in childhood. The relationship control variable group had the third highest PAF, followed by other partner factors. Currently married women were also more at risk. In the structural model, a resilience pathway showed less poverty, higher education, and more gender-equitable ideas were connected and conveyed protection from IPV. These are all amenable risk factors. This research was cross-sectional, so we cannot be sure of the temporal sequence of exposure, but the outcome being a past-year measure to some extent mitigates this problem.Conclusions: Past-year IPV indicators based on women's reported experience that were developed to track SDG 5 are probably reasonably reliable but will not always give the same prevalence as may be reported by men. Report validity requires further research. Interviews with men to track past-year nonpartner rape perpetration are feasible and important. The findings suggest a range of factors are associated with past-year physical and/or sexual IPV exposure; of particular interest is the resilience pathway suggested by the structural model, which is highly amenable to intervention and explains why combining economic empowerment of women and gender empowerment/relationship skills training has been successful. This study provides additional rationale for scaling up violence prevention interventions that combine economic and gender empowerment/relationship skills building of women, as well as the value of investing in girls' education with a view to long-term violence reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crime remains a crucial concern regarding ensuring a safe and secure environment for the public. Numerous efforts have been made to predict crime, emphasizing the importance of employing deep learning approaches for precise predictions. However, sufficient crime data and resources for training state-of-the-art deep learning-based crime prediction systems pose a challenge. To address this issue, this study adopts the transfer learning paradigm. Moreover, this study fine-tunes state-of-the-art statistical and deep learning methods, including Simple Moving Averages (SMA), Weighted Moving Averages (WMA), Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory (BiLSTMs), and Convolutional Neural Networks and Long Short Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) for crime prediction. Primarily, this study proposed a BiLSTM based transfer learning architecture due to its high accuracy in predicting weekly and monthly crime trends. The transfer learning paradigm leverages the fine-tuned BiLSTM model to transfer crime knowledge from one neighbourhood to another. The proposed method is evaluated on Chicago, New York, and Lahore crime datasets. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of transfer learning with BiLSTM, achieving low error values and reduced execution time. These prediction results can significantly enhance the efficiency of law enforcement agencies in controlling and preventing crime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]