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Background: The European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP), like many other research funders, requires its grantees to make papers available via open access (OA). This article investigates the effect of publishing in OA journals and international collaboration within and between European and sub-Saharan African countries on citation impact and likelihood of falling into the top 1% and top 10% most cited papers in poverty-related disease (PRD) research. Methods: Disease-specific research publications were identified in the Web of Science™ and MEDLINE using Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) terms. Data on the open accessibility of scientific literature were derived from 1science oaFindr. Publication data, including relative citation counts, were extracted for 2003–2015. Regression models were applied to quantify the relationship between relative citations and presence in the 1% and top 10% most cited papers versus OA and international collaboration. Results: The results show that since 2003 papers on PRDs have become increasingly available in OA. Among all PRD areas, malaria research is most frequently published in OA and in international collaboration. The adjusted regression analyses show that holding other factors constant, publishing research in OA and in international collaboration has a significant and meaningful citation advantage over non-OA or non-international collaborative research. Publishing papers as part of a European-wide or European- sub-Saharan African collaboration increases research impact. In contrast, such collaboration advantage is not observed for research output involving sub-Saharan Africa only which seems to decrease research impact. Conclusions: Our results indicate that there is a real, measurable citation advantage for publishing PRD research in OA and international collaboration. However, the international collaboration advantage seems to be region-specific with increased research impact for European-wide and European-sub-Saharan African collaborations but a decrease in research impact of collaborations confined to sub-Saharan African research institutions. Further research is required to further verify this finding and to understand the underlying factors related to this observed decrease in research impact. To target future research capacity building activities in sub-Saharan Africa it is important to assess whether the observed decreased impact reflects the scientific competencies and geographic distribution of individual researchers or institutional-, national- or funder-specific research requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the impact of a scholarly paper is of great significance, yet the effect of geographical distance of cited papers has not been explored. In this paper, we examine 30,596 papers published in Physical Review C, and identify the relationship between citations and geographical distances between author affiliations. Subsequently, a relative citation weight is applied to assess the impact of a scholarly paper. A higher-order weighted quantum PageRank algorithm is also developed to address the behavior of multiple step citation flow. Capturing the citation dynamics with higher-order dependencies reveals the actual impact of papers, including necessary self-citations that are sometimes excluded in prior studies. Quantum PageRank is utilized in this paper to help differentiating nodes whose PageRank values are identical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale, aims and objective: Substituting outpatient hospital care with primary care is seen as a solution to decrease unnecessary referrals to outpatient hospital care and decrease rising healthcare costs. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the effects on quality of care, health and costs outcomes of substituting outpatient hospital care with primary care-based interventions, which are performed by medical specialists in face-to-face consultations in a primary care setting. Method: The systematic review was performed using the PICO framework. Original papers in which the premise of the intervention was to substitute outpatient hospital care with primary care through the involvement of a medical specialist in a primary care setting were eligible. Results: A total of 14 papers were included. A substitution intervention in general practitioner (GP) practices was described in 11 papers, three described a joint consultation intervention in which GPs see patients together with a medical specialist. This study showed that substitution initiatives result mostly in favourable outcomes compared to outpatient hospital care. The initiatives resulted mostly in shorter waiting lists, shorter clinic waiting times and higher patient satisfaction. Costs for treating one extra patient seemed to be higher in the intervention settings. This was mainly caused by inefficient planning of consultation hours and lower patient numbers. Conclusions: Despite the fact that internationally a lot has been written about the importance of performing substitution interventions in which preventing unnecessary referrals to outpatient hospital care was the aim, only 14 papers were included. Future systematic reviews should focus on the effects on the Triple Aim of substitution initiatives in which other healthcare professions than medical specialists are involved along with new technologies, such as e-consults. Additionally, to gain more insight into the effects of substitution initiatives operating in a dynamic healthcare context, it is important to keep evaluating the interventions in a longitudinal study design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen a surge of studies in machine learning in health and biomedicine, driven by digitalization of healthcare environments and increasingly accessible computer systems for conducting analyses. Many of us believe that these developments will lead to significant improvements in patient care. Like many academic disciplines, however, progress is hampered by lack of code and data sharing. In bringing together this PLOS ONE collection on machine learning in health and biomedicine, we sought to focus on the importance of reproducibility, making it a requirement, as far as possible, for authors to share data and code alongside their papers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study asks the question on which national “shoulders” the world’s top-level research stands. Traditionally, the number of citations to national papers has been the evaluative measures of national scientific standings. We raise a different question: instead of analyzing the citations to a countries’ articles (the forward view), we examine references to prior publications from specific countries cited in the most elite publications (the backward—citing—view). “Elite publications” are operationalized as the top-1% most-highly cited articles. Using the articles published from 2004 to 2013, we examine the research referenced in these works. Our results confirm the well-known fact that China has emerged to become a major player in science. However, China still belongs to the low contributors when countries are ranked as contributors to the cited references in top-1% articles. Using this perspective, the results do not support a decreasing trend for the USA; in fact, the USA exceeds expectations (compared to its publication share) in terms of references in the top-1% articles. Switzerland, Sweden, and the Netherlands also appear at the top of the list. However, the results for Germany are lower than statistically expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper generally builds on the concept of justice in social science. It attempts to interpret this concept in a geographical and particularly in a spatial context. The paper uses the concept of accessibility to define the principle of spatial equity. The main objective of the paper is to propose an approach with which to assess the level of spatial equity in the administrative division of a territory. In order to fulfil this objective the paper theoretically discusses the concept of spatial equity and relates it to other relevant concepts, such as spatial efficiency. The paper proposes some measures of spatial equity and uses the territory of four Central European countries (Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia) as example of the application of the proposed measures and the corroboration of the proposed approach. The analysis is based on the administrative division of four countries and is carried out at different hierarchical levels as defined by the Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The Swedish Register of Palliative Care (SRPC) is a national quality register that collects data about end-of-life care from healthcare providers that care for dying patients. Data are used for quality control and research. Data are mainly collected with an end-of-life questionnaire (ELQ), which is completed by healthcare staff after the death of a patient. A previous validity assessment of the ELQ showed insufficient validity in some items including symptom relief. The aim of this study was to examine the validity of the revised ELQ. Materials and methods: Data from 100 consecutive patients’ medical records at two specialised palliative care units were used to complete new ELQs, which were then compared to the ELQ registrations from the SRPC for the same patients. The level of agreement was calculated for each ELQ item. To account for the possibility of the agreement occurring by chance, Cohen’s kappa was calculated for suitable items. To examine the extent of registration mistakes when transferring the paper form to the web, the original paper versions of the ELQ filled out at the units were compared to data from the ELQs reported to the SRPC. Results: Level of agreement between ELQ registrations from the SRPC and the new ELQs based on the medical records varied between 0.55 and 1.00, where 24 items showed level of agreement above 0.80 and 9 items showed level of agreement below 0.80. Cohen’s kappa with 95% confidence intervals was calculated for 24 items. The kappa values showed that two items had poor agreement, four fair agreement, 11 moderate agreement, five good agreement and two very good agreement. The level of agreement varied between 0.93 and 1.00 when comparing the ELQ registrations in the SRPC and the paper forms. Conclusion: The revised ELQ contains more items with high levels of agreement between registrations in the SRPC and notes in the patients’ medical records when compared to the previous version. Validating issues around symptom assessment remains a challenge in our model of quality assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting: Research capacity is weakest in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) where operational research is highly relevant and needed. Structured Operational Research and Training Initiative (SORT IT) courses have been developed to train participants to conduct and publish operational research and influence policy and practice. Twenty courses were completed in Asia, Africa, Europe and the South Pacific between 2009 and 2014. Objectives: In the 20 completed SORT IT courses, to assess where the research was conducted, who was trained, who became facilitators in subsequent courses and course outcomes. Design: A cohort study of completed SORT IT courses Results: There were 236 participants (41% female) including 64 nationalities who conducted research in 59 countries, mostly from Asia and Africa (mean course duration = 9.7 months). Most participants (68%) were from government health programs and non-governmental agencies. A total of 213(90%) participants completed all milestones successfully with 41(19%) becoming subsequent course facilitators, 88% of whom were from LMICs. Of 228 manuscripts submitted to scientific journals, 197(86%) were either published or in press; in 86%, the principal investigator (first author) was a LMIC national. Papers were published in 23 scientific journals (impact factor 0.5–4.4) and covered 21 disease categories (median publication time = 5.7 months). Published papers (186) had 94,794 cumulative article views/downloads. Article views/downloads for immediate open access articles were double those from closed access journals. Conclusion: The SORT IT model has been effective in training personnel to produce relevant operational research in LMICs. It merits continued commitment and support for further scale-up and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates institutional change in the Polish public science system (PPSS) in the past twenty years. Employing macro-statistical data, the paper argues that this change process has unfolded stepwise and relatively late despite major political and economic transformations in post-socialist Poland. Using a historical-institutionalist perspective, the paper focuses on processes of institutional change, including layering, displacement, and dismantling. One major finding is that the speed and depth of the gradual transformation differs considerably between the three research performing sectors of the Polish public science system. As the Polish Academy of Sciences was reproduced institutionally, the former governmental units for applied R&D were partly dismantled and displaced by private sector R&D units. In contrast, the Higher Education sector underwent a strong expansion and, thus, layering of new research activities and fields. Since policy shifts within the PPSS occurred relatively late, the more than two decades following the collapse of communism are of special interest to scholars of incremental, yet cumulative, institutional change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm, called Exogenous Fitness, to calculate the Fitness of subnational entities and we apply it to the states of Brazil. In the last decade, several indices were introduced to measure the competitiveness of countries by looking at the complexity of their export basket. Tacchella et al (2012) developed a non-monetary metric called Fitness. In this paper, after an overview about Brazil as a whole and the comparison with the other BRIC countries, we introduce a new methodology based on the Fitness algorithm, called Exogenous Fitness. Combining the results with the Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPp), we look at the dynamics of the Brazilian states in the Fitness-Income plane. Two regimes are distinguishable: one with high predictability and the other with low predictability, showing a deep analogy with the heterogeneous dynamics of the World countries. Furthermore, we compare the ranking of the Brazilian states according to the Exogenous Fitness with the ranking obtained through two other techniques, namely Endogenous Fitness and Economic Complexity Index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The input-output table is very comprehensive and detailed in describing the national economic systems with abundant economic relationships, which contain supply and demand information among various industrial sectors. The complex network, a theory, and method for measuring the structure of a complex system can depict the structural characteristics of the internal structure of the researched object by measuring the structural indicators of the social and economic systems, revealing the complex relationships between the inner hierarchies and the external economic functions. In this paper, functions of industrial sectors on the global value chain are to be distinguished with bipartite graph theory, and inter-sector competitive relationships are to be extracted through resource allocation process. Furthermore, quantitative analysis indices will be proposed under the perspective of a complex network, which will be used to bring about simulations on the variation tendencies of economies’ status in different situations of commercial intercourses. Finally, a new econophysics analytical framework of international trade is to be established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial robots are a strategic future technology and an important part of the development of artificial intelligence, and they are a necessary means for the intelligent transformation of manufacturing industry. Based on global industrial robot trade data from 1998 to 2017, this paper applies the dynamic complex network analysis method to reveal the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and trade status evolution of the global industrial robot trade network. The results show that the global industrial robot network density has steadily increased, and the industrial robot trade has been characterized by ‘diversification’. The number of major industrial robot exporters in the world is increasing, and the import market is increasingly diversified. The export market structure is relatively tight, the centrality of the global industrial robot trade network shows a downward trend, and the dissimilarity of the ‘core-edge’ clusters decreases year by year. The trade status of ‘catch-up’ countries represented by China has rapidly increased. However, Japan, Germany, and Italy are still in the central position of the industrial robot trade. Moreover, trade of the ‘catch-up’ countries’ is dominated by imports, and exports of industrial robot products are insufficient. Finally, policy suggestions are provided according to the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Personal motivation is a key factor in the service of foster care, impending both on the welfare of the child and on the satisfaction of the carer. This paper explores the benefits, challenges and dilemmas involved in the job of professional (i.e. state-supported) foster carer in Romania–a country where the issue of child protection has drawn a great deal of international attention over the last thirty years. The principal hypothesis concerns whether the benefits, challenges and dilemmas identified by foster carers are influenced by the factors that led to their taking up this kind of work. Quantitative research was conducted using a questionnaire as the main tool. The paper takes a descriptive, cross-sectional and multifactorial approach. Sampling was carried out by self-selecting method, and the study involved 51 participants. The research project identified a statistically significant variation in the challenges and dilemmas reported by foster carers. Thus, the results of the study show that the majority of the carers indicate a primarily intrinsic motivation for their work. By way of conclusion, it is argued that social workers, operating in collaboration with multidisciplinary teams, can offer carers support in managing more difficult periods in the child–carer relationship, thus enhancing the sustainability of the foster care service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As of November 1, 2018, China's "One Belt and One Road" Initiative has involved 123 countries and promoted worldwide communication, cooperation and trade exchange. This paper constructs correlation networks of exchange rates among the countries along “The Belt and Road” and analyzes the risk contagion structure. It is found that when “The Belt and Road” initiative is initialized, countries in Eastern Europe occupy important positions in the network and play a vital role in the spreading of exchange rate risks; however, during the process of “The Belt and Road” initiative, the exchange rate risks are decentralized geographically, whereas they are centralized in countries that have in-depth communication and cooperation. The minimum Spanning Tree method is also proposed to investigate the structure of complex networks. It is found that the geographical link between exchange rate fluctuations and correlations among the countries has been strengthened while China has become an important node in the exchange rate network after the launch of “The Belt and Road” initiative. In addition, the influence and promotion of RMB has rapidly benefited from the initiative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical studies show that discrimination by identity found in offline markets also prevails online. This paper reveal that in a competitive market, buyers that intend to discriminate exist but they are prevented from influencing the market outcome. To this end, we construct a field experiment on eBay, where half of the sellers disclose their names in their usernames while the other half do not. eBay, however, automatically discloses the seller’s names to the buyer after the auction. In the anonymous auctions, winning bidders thus learn the identity of the seller after the auction ends, and here we find buyers to discriminate against sellers with foreign-sounding names by leaving them feedback less often. However, there is no such discrimination in feedback provision when the seller name was known to the buyer before the auction. When bidders know the names of the sellers, the bidders with animus towards individuals with specific names can select out of auctions from these sellers, leaving winners that do not discriminate. One would expect that the auctions of for example sellers with foreign-sounding names would receive fewer bidders and thus lower auction prices. However, we observe no such differences: there are no statistically significant differences in the number of bids or auction prices received by sellers with foreign or domestic sounding names. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While diaspora communities have become more critical of Female Genital Cutting (FGC), there are also trends of continuity. To explore the interplay between continuity and change, I designed a study among Somali migrants in Norway. A team of six Somali research assistants collected data from 72 male and female research participants between 16 and 57 years of age through in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The aim of the study was to gather knowledge that could improve interventions among migrant populations. The study findings indicate that the experience of FGC as a practice in transition implies that people have to maneuver between different and partly contradictory social norms. The paper first discusses the contradiction between a strong negative attitude toward FGC and very low engagement. The lack of engagement is explained by the increased privatization of FGC and insecurities due to the transition and disempowerment with regard to challenging the FGC practices of relatives based in countries of origin. Second, the paper explores the contradiction between perceptions of FGC as a disappearing practice and the recognition of trends of continuation. Trends of continuation include those related to perceptions of risk during travel to countries of origin, resistance to defibulation, support for sunna circumcision and insecurities regarding the significance of FGC for marriageability. Thus, despite an almost universally negative attitude toward FGC in the form of infibulation, ongoing changes can, to some extent, hamper further change. This suggests that to ensure further progress in the abandonment of the practice, these complex and interconnected expectations must be addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Non-medical prescribing was introduced into the United Kingdom (UK) to improve patient care, through extending healthcare professionals’ roles. More recent government health service policy focuses on the increased demand and the need for efficiency. This systematic policy review aimed to describe any changes in government policy position and the role that non-medical prescribing plays in healthcare provision. Method: The systematic policy review included policy and consultation documents that describe independent non-medical prescribing. A pre-defined protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42015019786). Professional body websites, other relevant websites and the following databases were searched to identify relevant documents: HMIC, Lexis Nexis, UK Government Web Archive, UKOP, UK Parliamentary Papers and Web of Science. Documents published between 2006 and February 2018 were included. Results and discussion: Following exclusions, 45 documents were selected for review; 23 relating to policy or strategy and 22 to consultations. Of the former, 13/23 were published 2006–2010 and the remainder since 2013. Two main themes were identified: chronological aspects and healthcare provision. In the former, a publication gap for policy documents resulted from a change in government and associated major healthcare service reorganisation. In the later, the role of non-medical prescribing was found to have evolved to support efficient service delivery, and cost reduction. For many professions, prescribing appears embedded into practice; however, the pharmacy profession continues to produce policy documents, suggesting that prescribing is not yet perceived as normal practice. Conclusion: Prescribing appears to be more easily adopted into practice where it can form part of the overall care of the patient. Where new roles are required to be established, then prescribing takes longer to be universally adopted. While this review concerns policy and practice in the UK, the aspect of role adoption has wider potential implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Internet is rapidly changing the way the results of academic research are communicated within communities and with the wider public. In a push to accelerate change and make the results of research immediately and freely available online for all to read and use, the European Commission, with support from a group of high-profile funders, has proposed a plan to influence the way academic research is published. Here, we discuss the likely impact of this plan on the publishing landscape, the potential benefits, and some possible unintended consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of outlaw bikers is growing globally. Despite this, little research exists on these groups and their alleged violent tendencies. To address this, the current paper uses unique data to examine whether gang violence causes outlaw biker violence. The period examined runs from mid-2008 until early 2012 during which violent clashes occurred between outlaw bikers and street gang members involved in an alleged conflict in Copenhagen, Denmark. A precise description of each individual act of violence would make it possible to identify whether specific acts were carried out in furtherance of the alleged conflict. This would allow one to determine whether outlaw bikers commit violence on behalf of their club. However, such knowledge is unavailable. The paper therefore takes a different approach by examining whether acts of violence committed by the two groups are statistically associated. In other words, it considers whether one or more acts can be described as retaliatory during the observation periods. The sample consists of 640 individuals involved with the Hells Angels Motorcycle Club or with non-biker street gangs–both of which are present in Copenhagen. Statistical models are used to predict 143 violent events committed by 196 outlaw bikers. The results suggest that violence committed by gang members predicts violence committed by outlaw bikers. This indicates that violent acts committed by outlaw bikers are at least partly a form of retaliation carried out on behalf of their club. The paper expands the literature on the kinds of inter-group, micro-level processes that can lead to reciprocal violence by including outlaw bikers in a literature that has previously focused on non-biker street gangs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Doha Development Agenda recognizes the central role that international trade can play in the promotion of economic development. In fact, the increase of exports from developing countries to developed nations' markets has been considered a key element for developing countries to realize the potential benefits of globalization. Over the last decades, developed countries have provided preferential access to their markets to developing countries through nonreciprocal trade agreements. Moreover, developing countries have also participated in reciprocal trade agreements. This paper re-examines comparatively the effect of both kinds of trade agreements on exports from developing countries but also from the developed world. In line with other studies, our results across specifications are unstable. However, the results of our preferred specification give additional support to the argument raised by critics of nonreciprocal preference regimes who consider that developing countries should abandon their reliance on one-way trade preferences in favor of reciprocal agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Authorship is the currency of an academic career for which the number of papers researchers publish demonstrates creativity, productivity, and impact. To discourage coercive authorship practices and inflated publication records, journals require authors to affirm and detail their intellectual contributions but this strategy has been unsuccessful as authorship lists continue to grow. Here, we surveyed close to 6000 of the top cited authors in all science categories with a list of 25 research activities that we adapted from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) authorship guidelines. Responses varied widely from individuals in the same discipline, same level of experience, and same geographic region. Most researchers agreed with the NIH criteria and grant authorship to individuals who draft the manuscript, analyze and interpret data, and propose ideas. However, thousands of the researchers also value supervision and contributing comments to the manuscript, whereas the NIH recommends discounting these activities when attributing authorship. People value the minutiae of research beyond writing and data reduction: researchers in the humanities value it less than those in pure and applied sciences; individuals from Far East Asia and Middle East and Northern Africa value these activities more than anglophones and northern Europeans. While developing national and international collaborations, researchers must recognize differences in peoples values while assigning authorship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Problem: Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of Forecasting provide more accurate forecasts? Methods: To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published regression models used for forecasting 154 elections in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, U.K., and the U.S. The guidelines direct forecasters using causal models to be conservative to account for uncertainty by (I) modifying effect estimates to reflect uncertainty either by damping coefficients towards no effect or equalizing coefficients, (II) combining forecasts from diverse models, and (III) incorporating more knowledge by including more variables with known important effects. Findings: Modifying the econometric models to make them more conservative reduced forecast errors compared to forecasts from the original models: (I) Damping coefficients by 10% reduced error by 2% on average, although further damping generally harmed accuracy; modifying coefficients by equalizing coefficients consistently reduced errors with average error reductions between 2% and 8% depending on the level of equalizing. Averaging the original regression model forecast with an equal-weights model forecast reduced error by 7%. (II) Combining forecasts from two Australian models and from eight U.S. models reduced error by 14% and 36%, respectively. (III) Using more knowledge by including all six unique variables from the Australian models and all 24 unique variables from the U.S. models in equal-weight “knowledge models” reduced error by 10% and 43%, respectively. Originality: This paper provides the first test of applying guidelines for conservative forecasting to established election forecasting models. Usefulness: Election forecasters can substantially improve the accuracy of forecasts from econometric models by following simple guidelines for conservative forecasting. Decision-makers can make better decisions when they are provided with models that are more realistic and forecasts that are more accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores the benefits of global financial reporting models for developing countries, discussing the case of Romania, which, at the recommendations of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, exceeded the minimum requirements of the European Union, by imposing the full adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in individual financial statements of listed companies. Using regression analysis and decomposition techniques, the paper explores the evolution in value relevance of financial variables based on pre-(2009–2012) and post-(2014–2016) adoption samples, showing that after IFRS adoption financial information becomes significantly more relevant for equity valuations. We also provide empirical evidence showing that the degree of relevance for stock valuation, as well as the IFRS impact varies across types of firms. Overall, our findings tend to indicate the success of the financial reporting reform, which could be relevant for other jurisdictions facing similar decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Digital spaces, and in particular social networking sites, are becoming increasingly present and influential in the functioning of our democracies. In this paper, we propose an integrated methodology for the data collection, the reconstruction, the analysis and the visualization of the development of a country’s political landscape from Twitter data. Method: The proposed method relies solely on the interactions between Twitter accounts and is independent of the characteristics of the shared contents such as the language of the tweets. We validate our methodology on a case study on the 2017 French presidential election (60 million Twitter exchanges between more than 2.4 million users) via two independent methods: the comparison between our automated political categorization and a human categorization based on the evaluation of a sample of 5000 profiles descriptions; the correspondence between the reconfigurations detected in the reconstructed political landscape and key political events reported in the media. This latter validation demonstrated the ability of our approach to accurately reflect the reconfigurations at play in the off-line political scene. Results: We built on this reconstruction to give insights into the opinion dynamics and the reconfigurations of political communities at play during a presidential election. First, we propose a quantitative description and analysis of the political engagement of members of political communities. Second, we analyze the impact of political communities on information diffusion and in particular on their role in the fake news phenomena. We measure a differential echo chamber effect on the different types of political news (fake news, debunks, standard news) caused by the community structure and emphasize the importance of addressing the meso-structures of political networks in understanding the fake news phenomena. Conclusions: Giving access to an intermediate level, between sociological surveys in the field and large statistical studies (such as those conducted by national or international organizations) we demonstrate that social networks data make it possible to qualify and quantify the activity of political communities in a multi-polar political environment; as well as their temporal evolution and reconfiguration, their structure, their alliance strategies and their semantic particularities during a presidential campaign through the analysis of their digital traces. We conclude this paper with a comment on the political and ethical implications of the use of social networks data in politics. We stress the importance of developing social macroscopes that will enable citizens to better understand how they collectively make society and propose as example the “Politoscope”, a macroscope that delivers some of our results in an interactive way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 5th December 2012, a scientific article reviewing a change in the feeding behaviour of the European catfish, one of the largest freshwater fish, was published in the American scientific journal, PLOS ONE, an open access journal, which also allows the mass publication of pictures and videos. Within a few days following the publication of this article, it was relayed by numerous web sites and generated a media craze. In this paper, we analyse the circulation of this scientific information in the sphere of Web-based media during the two months following its publication, by revealing the citation mechanisms of the original article and the logic of the Internet users participating in its diffusion. In addition, since the circulation of its informational content travelled beyond linguistic and geographical boundaries, we chose to compare the citation modalities and intertextual relationships of documents in the three countries where the article spread the most widely, namely: France, the United States and Great Britain. Even though our study shows that the media circulation of scientific papers operates in a traditional way, the intertextual analysis underlines the grand variety of participants (such as journalists, non-scientists, fishermen, technology enthusiasts and Internet users) involved in the diffusion of this information, each of them mobilizing different intertextual strategies, according to their various targets. They all transformed, reformulated and appropriated the scientific information according to their own, unique interests. This study also emphasizes the importance of journalistic websites as opinion relays. They were the first diffusers involved in spreading the information but this role was rarely acknowledged by the Internet users - through citations, for example. In contrast, we observed that amateurs’ communities (communities of practices and communities of interest of fishermen or of buzz fans), which only became involved in a second temporal phase of the spreading, preferred to build up their credibility through citations of the original article. Finally, this research helps to rethink the mechanisms of the circulation of scientific information in the Web-based media, highlighting both the variety and the inventiveness of the interactions between the academic and public spheres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we use a panel of manufacturing firms in Spain to examine the extent to which they use internal and external sources of information (customers, suppliers, competitors, consultants and universities) to generate product and process innovation. Our results show that, although internal sources are influential, external sources of information are key to achieve innovation performance. These results are in line with the open innovation literature because they show that firms that are opening up their innovation process and that use different information sources have a greater capacity to generate innovations. We also find that the importance of external sources of information varies depending on the type of innovation (product or process) considered. To generate process innovation, firms mainly rely on suppliers while, to generate product innovation, the main contribution is from customers. The potential simultaneity between product and process innovation is also taken into consideration. We find that the generation of both types of innovation is not independent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates age variations in foreign-born vs. native-born mortality ratios in an international comparative perspective, with the purpose of gaining insight into the mechanisms underlying the so-called migrant mortality advantage. We examine the four main explanations that have been proposed in the literature for the migrant mortality advantage (i.e., in-migration selection effects, out-migration selection effects, cultural effects, and data artifacts), and formulate expectations as to whether they should generate an increase, a decrease, or no change in relative mortality over the life course. Using data from France, the US and the UK for periods around 2010, we then examine typical age patterns of foreign-born vs. native-born mortality ratios in light of this theoretical framework. We find that these mortality ratios vary greatly by age, with important similarities across migrant groups and host countries. The most systematic age pattern we find is a U-shape pattern: at the aggregate level, migrants often experience excess mortality at young ages, then exhibit a large advantage at adult ages (with the largest advantage around age 45), and finally experience mortality convergence with natives at older ages. The explanation most consistent with this pattern is the “in-migration selection effects” explanation. By contrast, the “out-migration selection effects” explanation is poorly supported by the observed patterns. Our age disaggregation also shows that migrants at mid-adult ages experience mortality advantages that are often far greater than typically documented in this literature. Overall, these results reinforce the notion that migrants are a highly-selected population exhibiting mortality patterns that poorly reflect their living conditions in host countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Forensic odontology (FO) is regarded in the literature as one of the most reliable and economical scientific methods for victim identification in mass disasters (MDs). The present paper systematically reviews the role of forensic odontologists in various global MDs. Method: A comprehensive search of the literature databases (PubMed, Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Google Scholar), along with cross-referencing published peer-reviewed articles, was conducted. The search included full texts, abstracts or titles, had no inclusion year limit (searched until September 2017) and was limited to the English language. Keywords included a combination of ‘Forensic odontology’, ‘Dental records’, ‘Victim identification’, ‘Natural mass disaster’, ‘Criminal mass disaster’, ‘Accidental mass disaster’ and ‘Victim disaster’. Results: Of the included disasters (20), 12 (57.14%) were accidental, 5 (23.80%) natural and 3 (19.04%) were criminal. The maximum number of victims was associated with the Japan tsunami (15892), followed by the Thailand tsunami (4280) and the Estonia ferry disaster (852). A total of 23654 victims were reported, of which 20569 (86.96%) were positively identified. Reports from 17 MDs included the use of FO in victim identification [3025 (14.70%) cases]. In addition, 1094 victims (5.31%; from 7 papers) were identified using FO in combination with other methodologies. The highest percentage of victims was identified using FO following the Kentucky air crash (47; 100%), followed by the Newark air crash (38; 76%), the Nepal air crash (10; 71.42%), the France air crash (56; 65.88%), the Australian bushfire (14; 63.63%), and the Estonia ferry disaster (57; 60.63%). Conclusion: FO has played a significant role in victim identification in several MDs around the world. The success of FO-based identification is heavily dependent on the availability of ante-mortem records from general dental practitioners. Hence, adequate knowledge about FO and appropriate dental record keeping among general dental practitioners are critical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal diseases are global issues affecting the productivity and financial profitability of affected farms. Johne’s disease is distributed on farms worldwide and is an endemic contagious bacterial infection in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis. In cattle, the clinical disease manifests itself as chronic enteritis resulting in reduced production, weight loss, and eventually death. Johne’s disease is prevalent in the UK, including Scotland. Direct costs and losses associated with Johne’s disease have been estimated in previous research, confirming an important economic impact of the disease in UK herds. Despite this, the distributional impact of Johne’s disease among milk consumers and producers in Scotland has not been estimated. In this paper, we evaluate the change in society’s economic welfare, namely to dairy producers (i.e. infected and uninfected herds) and milk consumers in Scotland induced by the introduction of Johne’s disease in the national Scottish dairy herd. At the national-level, we conclude that the economic burden falls mainly on producers of infected herds and, to a lesser extent, milk consumers, while producers of uninfected herds benefit from the presence of Johne’s. An infected producer’s loss per cow is approximately two times larger in magnitude than that of an uninfected producer’s gain. Such economic welfare estimates are an important comparison of the relative costs of national herd prevalence and the wider economic welfare implications for both producers and consumers. This is particularly important from a policy, public good, cost sharing, and human health perspective. The economic welfare framework presented in this paper can be applied to other diseases to examine the relative burden of society’s economic welfare of alternative livestock disease scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity analysis evaluates uncertainty in economic welfare given limited data and uncertainty in the national herd prevalence, and other input parameters, associated with Johne’s disease in Scotland. Therefore, until the prevalence of Johne’s is better understood, the full economic cost to Scottish dairy herds remains uncertain but in the meantime the sensitivity analysis evaluates the robustness of economic welfare to such uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is ample evidence that biotic factors, such as biotic interactions and dispersal capacity, can affect species distributions and influence species’ responses to climate change. However, little is known about how these factors affect predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) with respect to spatial grain and extent of the models. Objectives: Understanding how spatial scale influences the effects of biological processes in SDMs is important because SDMs are one of the primary tools used by conservation biologists to assess biodiversity impacts of climate change. Data sources and study eligibility criteria: We systematically reviewed SDM studies published from 2003–2015 using ISI Web of Science searches to: (1) determine the current state and key knowledge gaps of SDMs that incorporate biotic interactions and dispersal; and (2) understand how choice of spatial scale may alter the influence of biological processes on SDM predictions. Synthesis methods and limitations: We used linear mixed effects models to examine how predictions from SDMs changed in response to the effects of spatial scale, dispersal, and biotic interactions. Results: There were important biases in studies including an emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems in northern latitudes and little representation of aquatic ecosystems. Our results suggest that neither spatial extent nor grain influence projected climate-induced changes in species ranges when SDMs include dispersal or biotic interactions. Conclusions: We identified several knowledge gaps and suggest that SDM studies forecasting the effects of climate change should: 1) address broader ranges of taxa and locations; and 1) report the grain size, extent, and results with and without biological complexity. The spatial scale of analysis in SDMs did not affect estimates of projected range shifts with dispersal and biotic interactions. However, the lack of reporting on results with and without biological complexity precluded many studies from our analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous epidemiologic studies have reported famine exposure during early life association with overweight or obesity in adulthood, but a consistent perspective has not been established to date. Purpose: To determine, by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis, whether exposure to famine could increase body mass index (BMI) in adult or not, and assess the association between famine exposure and the risk of overweight or obesity. Methods: Published articles were systematically searched (until August, 2017) from PubMed, ScienceDirect, Cochrane, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Initially, comparing differences in BMI between exposed and non-exposed groups that weight mean difference (WMD) were used. Subsequently, the effect of famine exposure on overweight or obesity risk, which pooled relative risks (RRs), odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model. Result: Twenty studies were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Compared with non-exposed group, famine exposure group significantly increased the risk of overweight (OR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.04–1.16) and obesity (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05–1.24). Sensitivity analyses revealed no significant change in the famine exposure and BMI, the risk of overweight and obesity study when any one study was excluded. Subgroup analyses showed that age, gender, exposure type, study type, continent, famine cause and paper publication date were associated with BMI, the risk of overweight and obesity. Meta-regression analyses suggested that continent, famine cause could partially explain heterogeneity for famine exposure and BMI studies. Conclusion: The systematic review and meta-analysis indicates that famine exposure during early life may increase BMI, the risk of overweight and obesity, especially for female, fetal famine exposure or subject age less than 50. Furthermore, famine exposure group the risk of overweight and obesity in cross-sectional studies, Asian studies, famine cause by natural disaster or paper published from 2015 to the present studies are higher than that of non-exposed group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the cross-market effects of Brexit on the stock and bond markets of nine major countries in the world. By incorporating information theory, we introduce the time-varying impact weights based on symbolic transfer entropy to improve the traditional GARCH model. The empirical results show that under the influence of Brexit, flight-to-quality not only commonly occurs between the stocks and bonds of each country but also simultaneously occurs among different countries. We also find that the accuracy of the time-varying symbolic transfer entropy GARCH model proposed in this paper has been improved compared to the traditional GARCH model, which indicates that it has a certain practical application value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention strategies now prioritise four major risk factors: food, tobacco, alcohol and physical activity. Dietary salt intake remains much higher than recommended, increasing blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and stomach cancer. Substantial reductions in salt intake are therefore urgently needed. However, the debate continues about the most effective approaches. To inform future prevention programmes, we systematically reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of possible salt reduction interventions. We further compared “downstream, agentic” approaches targeting individuals with “upstream, structural” policy-based population strategies. Methods: We searched six electronic databases (CDSR, CRD, MEDLINE, SCI, SCOPUS and the Campbell Library) using a pre-piloted search strategy focussing on the effectiveness of population interventions to reduce salt intake. Retrieved papers were independently screened, appraised and graded for quality by two researchers. To facilitate comparisons between the interventions, the extracted data were categorised using nine stages along the agentic/structural continuum, from “downstream”: dietary counselling (for individuals, worksites or communities), through media campaigns, nutrition labelling, voluntary and mandatory reformulation, to the most “upstream” regulatory and fiscal interventions, and comprehensive strategies involving multiple components. Results: After screening 2,526 candidate papers, 70 were included in this systematic review (49 empirical studies and 21 modelling studies). Some papers described several interventions. Quality was variable. Multi-component strategies involving both upstream and downstream interventions, generally achieved the biggest reductions in salt consumption across an entire population, most notably 4g/day in Finland and Japan, 3g/day in Turkey and 1.3g/day recently in the UK. Mandatory reformulation alone could achieve a reduction of approximately 1.45g/day (three separate studies), followed by voluntary reformulation (-0.8g/day), school interventions (-0.7g/day), short term dietary advice (-0.6g/day) and nutrition labelling (-0.4g/day), but each with a wide range. Tax and community based counselling could, each typically reduce salt intake by 0.3g/day, whilst even smaller population benefits were derived from health education media campaigns (-0.1g/day). Worksite interventions achieved an increase in intake (+0.5g/day), however, with a very wide range. Long term dietary advice could achieve a -2g/day reduction under optimal research trial conditions; however, smaller reductions might be anticipated in unselected individuals. Conclusions: Comprehensive strategies involving multiple components (reformulation, food labelling and media campaigns) and “upstream” population-wide policies such as mandatory reformulation generally appear to achieve larger reductions in population-wide salt consumption than “downstream”, individually focussed interventions. This ‘effectiveness hierarchy’ might deserve greater emphasis in future NCD prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise of global value chains (GVCs) characterized by the so-called “outsourcing”, “fragmentation production”, and “trade in tasks” has been considered one of the most important phenomena for the 21st century trade. GVCs also can play a decisive role in trade policy making. However, due to the increasing complexity and sophistication of international production networks, especially in the equipment manufacturing industry, conventional trade statistics and the corresponding trade indicators may give us a distorted picture of trade. This paper applies various network analysis tools to the new GVC accounting system proposed by Koopman et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2013) in which gross exports can be decomposed into value-added terms through various routes along GVCs. This helps to divide the equipment manufacturing-related GVCs into some sub-networks with clear visualization. The empirical results of this paper significantly improve our understanding of the topology of equipment manufacturing-related GVCs as well as the interdependency of countries in these GVCs that is generally invisible from the traditional trade statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the bank lending channel, which considers how monetary authority actions affect the variation of loans. We focus on the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) totalizing 1254 banks from five countries in the period 2000–2012 (totalizing 13 years). The empirical results show that the effect of money supply growth on the growth of loans is non-linear and inverted U-shaped. In this context, our results show empirical evidence expansionary monetary policies do not increase the propensity of economic agents to systematically take greater risks on the market. After a certain level of money stock, increases in the money supply do not lead to increased negotiated credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores which demographic characteristics substantially bias self-reported physical and cognitive health status of older Europeans. The analysis utilises micro-data for 19 European countries from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe to compare performance-tested outcomes of mobility and memory with their self-reported equivalents. Relative importance analysis based on multinomial logistic regressions shows that the bias in self-reported health is mostly due to reporting heterogeneities between countries and age groups, whereas gender contributes little to the discrepancy. Concordance of mobility and cognition measures is highly related; however, differences in reporting behaviour due to education and cultural background have a larger impact on self-assessed memory than on self-assessed mobility. Southern as well as Central and Eastern Europeans are much more likely to misreport their physical and cognitive abilities than Northern and Western Europeans. Overall, our results suggest that comparisons of self-reported health between countries and age groups are prone to significant biases, whereas comparisons between genders are credible for most European countries. These findings are crucial given that self-assessed data are often the only information available to researchers and policymakers when asking health-related questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Castanea sativa is classified as non-indigenous in Britain and Ireland. It was long held that it was first introduced into Britain by the Romans, until a recent study found no corroborative evidence of its growing here before c. AD 650. This paper presents new data on the genetic diversity of C. sativa in Britain and Ireland and potential ancestral sources in continental Europe. Microsatellite markers and analytical methods tested in previous European studies were used to genotype over 600 C. sativa trees and coppice stools, sampled from ancient semi-natural woodlands, secondary woodlands and historic cultural sites across Britain and Ireland. A single overall genepool with a diverse admixture of genotypes was found, containing two sub groups differentiating Wales from Ireland, with discrete geographical and typological clusters. C. sativa genotypes in Britain and Ireland were found to relate predominantly to some sites in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Romania, but not to Greece, Turkey or eastern parts of Europe. C. sativa has come to Britain and Ireland from these western European areas, which had acted as refugia in the Last Glacial Maximum; we compare its introduction with the colonization/translocation of oak, ash, beech and hazel into Britain and Ireland. Clones of C. sativa were identified in Britain, defining for the first time the antiquity of some ancient trees and coppice stools, evincing both natural regeneration and anthropogenic propagation over many centuries and informing the chronology of the species’ arrival in Britain. This new evidence on the origins and antiquity of British and Irish C. sativa trees enhances their conservation and economic significance, important in the context of increasing threats from environmental change, pests and pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the trends in today’s tourism sector is the development of environmentally-friendly tourism activities which rely on natural resources of cultural heritage and on biodiversity. This is definitely the case for agritourism, a form of rural tourism. The purpose of this paper is to identify the development aspects of Polish agritourism with particular emphasis on natural and cultural attractiveness. To demonstrate the relationship between agritourism activities of Polish farms and the cultural and natural attractiveness, the Hellwig’s synthetic development indicator was used. As shown by research, the cultural and natural attractiveness of a destination is an important exogenous development factor. Another finding was that the intensified efforts undertaken by the farmers to access EU funds were not focused on areas with valuable natural or cultural resources and an untapped agritourism potential; instead, they were oriented at regions dominated by semi-subsistence or family farms. For a large part of farmers, the new form of support is about to become a source of additional incomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the effect of speed cameras on road traffic collisions using an approximate Bayesian doubly-robust (DR) causal inference estimation method. Previous empirical work on this topic, which shows a diverse range of estimated effects, is based largely on outcome regression (OR) models using the Empirical Bayes approach or on simple before and after comparisons. Issues of causality and confounding have received little formal attention. A causal DR approach combines propensity score (PS) and OR models to give an average treatment effect (ATE) estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal under correct specification of either of the two component models. We develop this approach within a novel approximate Bayesian framework to derive posterior predictive distributions for the ATE of speed cameras on road traffic collisions. Our results for England indicate significant reductions in the number of collisions at speed cameras sites (mean ATE = -15%). Our proposed method offers a promising approach for evaluation of transport safety interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the process of adapting the Stanford Coreference resolution module to the Basque language, taking into account the characteristics of the language. The module has been integrated in a linguistic analysis pipeline obtaining an end-to-end coreference resolution system for the Basque language. The adaptation process explained can benefit and facilitate other languages with similar characteristics in the implementation of their coreference resolution systems. During the experimentation phase, we have demonstrated that language-specific features have a noteworthy effect on coreference resolution, obtaining a gain in CoNLL score of 7.07 with respect to the baseline system. We have also analysed the effect that preprocessing has in coreference resolution, comparing the results obtained with automatic mentions versus gold mentions. When gold mentions are provided, the results increase 11.5 points in CoNLL score in comparison with results obtained when automatic mentions are used. The contribution of each sieve is analysed concluding that morphology is essential for agglutinative languages to obtain good performance in coreference resolution. Finally, an error analysis of the coreference resolution system is presented which have revealed our system’s weak points and help to determine the improvements of the system. As a result of the error analysis, we have enriched the Basque coreference resolution adding new two sieves, obtaining an improvement of 0.24 points in CoNLL F1 when automatic mentions are used and of 0.39 points when the gold mentions are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is commonly regarded as the key pillar of the European climate policy and as the main unifying tool to create a unique carbon price all over Europe. The UK has always played a crucial role in the EU ETS, being one of the most active national registry and a crucial hub for the exchange of allowances in the market. Brexit, therefore, could deeply modify the number and directions of such exchanges as well as the centrality of the other countries in this system. To investigate these issues, the present paper exploits network analysis tools to compare the structure of the EU ETS market in its first two phases with and without the UK, investigating a few different scenarios that might emerge from a possible reallocation of the transactions that have involved UK partners. We find that without the UK the EU ETS network would become in general much more homogeneous, though results may change focusing on the type of accounts involved in the transactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a rare, progressive neurodegenerative disease. There is heterogeneity of clinical phenotypes while a clinical characterization of ALS in Cyprus is still lacking. The aim of this 30-year retrospective study of ALS in Cyprus is to determine the demographic characteristics of patients, the clinical features of the disease, the uptake of supportive therapies and factors influencing survival. Methods: All ALS patients seen at the Cyprus Institute of Neurology and Genetics from January 1985 until July 2015 were included. Medical records of eligible patients were used for data extraction and compilation of an ALS database. Clinical features were compared between gender categories using univariate tests, while survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify prognostic factors for survival. Results: One hundred and seventy-nine ALS patients were included in the study, of whom 7 had a positive family history. Most clinical characteristics of ALS did not differ from what is observed in other European countries. However, some clinical characteristics were unique to our population, such as an increased acceptability and utilisation of supportive treatments such as gastrostomy. Conclusions: Overall, clinical characteristics of patients with ALS in the Republic of Cyprus do not differ from other European counties. Our study demonstrates a high acceptance and utilisation of supportive interventions enhancing survival, in the context of a multidisciplinary approach offered in the single tertiary centre that services the whole Cypriot ALS population. The findings of this paper are of value to the health professionals treating ALS in Cyprus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For pilot or experimental employment programme results to apply beyond their test bed, researchers must select ‘clusters’ (i.e. the job centres delivering the new intervention) that are reasonably representative of the whole territory. More specifically, this requirement must account for conditions that could artificially inflate the effect of a programme, such as the fluidity of the local labour market or the performance of the local job centre. Failure to achieve representativeness results in Cluster Sampling Bias (CSB). This paper makes three contributions to the literature. Theoretically, it approaches the notion of CSB as a human behaviour. It offers a comprehensive theory, whereby researchers with limited resources and conflicting priorities tend to oversample ‘effect-enhancing’ clusters when piloting a new intervention. Methodologically, it advocates for a ‘narrow and deep’ scope, as opposed to the ‘wide and shallow’ scope, which has prevailed so far. The PILOT-2 dataset was developed to test this idea. Empirically, it provides evidence on the prevalence of CSB. In conditions similar to the PILOT-2 case study, investigators (1) do not sample clusters with a view to maximise generalisability; (2) do not oversample ‘effect-enhancing’ clusters; (3) consistently oversample some clusters, including those with higher-than-average client caseloads; and (4) report their sampling decisions in an inconsistent and generally poor manner. In conclusion, although CSB is prevalent, it is still unclear whether it is intentional and meant to mislead stakeholders about the expected effect of the intervention or due to higher-level constraints or other considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: How can we explain the uneven decline of syphilis around the world following the introduction of penicillin? In this paper we use antenatal syphilis prevalence (ASP) to investigate how syphilis prevalence varied worldwide in the past century, and what risk factors correlate with this variance. Methods: 1) A systematic review using PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted to identify countries with published data relating to ASP estimates from before 1952 until the present. Eleven countries were identified (Canada, Denmark, Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK) and Zimbabwe). The ASP epidemic curve for each population was depicted graphically. In South Africa and the USA, results are reported separately for the black and white populations. 2) National antenatal syphilis prevalence estimates for 1990 to 1999 and 2008 were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low risk populations compiled for the Global Burden of Diseases study and from a recent review paper respectively. National ASPs were depicted graphically and regional median ASPs were calculated for both time periods. 3) Linear regression was used to test for an association between ASP in 1990–1999 and 2008 and four risk factors (efficacy of syphilis screening/treatment, health expenditure, GDP per capita and circumcision prevalence). WHO world regions were included as potential explanatory variables. Results: In most populations, ASP dropped to under 1% before 1960. In Zimbabwe and black South Africans, ASP was high in the pre-penicillin period, dropped in the post-penicillin period, but then plateaued at around 6% until the end of the 20th century when ASP dropped to just above 1%. In black Americans, ASP declined in the post penicillin period, but plateaued at 3–5% thereafter. ASP was statistically significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990–1999 and 2008 than in the other world regions (P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis in both time periods, ASP was only associated with residence in sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusions: Further research is necessary to elucidate the reasons for the higher prevalence of syphilis in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Media plays an important role in informing the general public about scientific ideas. We examine whether the word “evolve,” sometimes considered controversial by the general public, is frequently used in the popular press. Specifically, we ask how often articles discussing antibiotic resistance use the word “evolve” (or its lexemes) as opposed to alternative terms such as “emerge” or “develop.” We chose the topic of antibiotic resistance because it is a medically important issue; bacterial evolution is a central player in human morbidity and mortality. We focused on the most widely-distributed newspapers written in English in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, India, and Australia. We examined all articles that focused primarily on the evolution of antibiotic resistance, were published in 2014 or earlier, and were accessible in online archives, for a total of 1639 articles. The total years examined per newspaper ranged from 5 to 37 years with a median of 27 years, and the overall range was 1978–2014. We quantified how many articles included the term “evolve” and analyzed how this varied with newspaper, country, and time. We found that an overall rate of 18% of articles used the term “evolve” but with significant variation among countries. Newspapers in the United Kingdom had the highest rate (24%), more than double of those in India (9%), the country with the lowest rate. These frequencies were lower than those found in scientific papers from both evolutionary journals and biomedical journals. There were no statistically significant changes in frequency and no trends when “evolve” usage was compared against variables such as newspaper circulation, liberal/conservative bias, time, and state evolution acceptance in U.S. newspapers. This study highlights the globally low usage of the word “evolve” in the popular press. We suggest this low usage may affect public understanding and acceptance of evolutionary concepts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polyarthritis and rash caused by Sindbis virus (SINV), was first recognised in northern Europe about 50 years ago and is known as Ockelbo disease in Sweden and Pogosta disease in Finland. This mosquito-borne virus occurs mainly in tropical and sub-tropical countries, and in northern Europe it is suggested to cause regularly reoccurring outbreaks. Here a seven-year cycle of SINV outbreaks has been referred to in scientific papers, although the hypothesis is based solely on reported human cases. In the search for a more objective outbreak signal, we evaluated mosquito abundance and SINV prevalence in vector mosquitoes from an endemic area in central Sweden. Vector mosquitoes collected in the River Dalälven floodplains during the years before, during, and after the hypothesised 2002 outbreak year were assayed for virus on cell culture. Obtained isolates were partially sequenced, and the nucleotide sequences analysed using Bayesian maximum clade credibility and median joining network analysis. Only one SINV strain was recovered in 2001, and 4 strains in 2003, while 15 strains were recovered in 2002 with significantly increased infection rates in both the enzootic and the bridge-vectors. In 2002, the Maximum Likelihood Estimated infection rates were 10.0/1000 in the enzootic vectors Culex torrentium/pipiens, and 0.62/1000 in the bridge-vector Aedes cinereus, compared to 4.9/1000 and 0.0/1000 in 2001 and 0.0/1000 and 0.32/1000 in 2003 Sequence analysis showed that all isolates belonged to the SINV genotype I (SINV-I). The genetic analysis revealed local maintenance of four SINV-I clades in the River Dalälven floodplains over the years. Our findings suggest that increased SINV-I prevalence in vector mosquitoes constitutes the most valuable outbreak marker for further scrutinising the hypothesized seven-year cycle of SINV-I outbreaks and the mechanisms behind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]