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Broken water pumps continue to impede efforts to deliver clean and economically-viable water to the global poor. The literature has demonstrated that customers’ health benefits and willingness to pay for clean water are best realized when clean water infrastructure performs extremely well (>99% uptime). In this paper, we used sensor data from 42 Afridev-brand handpumps observed for 14 months in western Kenya to demonstrate how sensors and supervised ensemble machine learning could be used to increase total fleet uptime from a best-practices baseline of about 70% to >99%. We accomplish this increase in uptime by forecasting pump failures and identifying existing failures very quickly. Comparing the costs of operating the pump per functional year over a lifetime of 10 years, we estimate that implementing this algorithm would save 7% on the levelized cost of water relative to a sensor-less scheduled maintenance program. Combined with a rigorous system for dispatching maintenance personnel, implementing this algorithm in a real-world program could significantly improve health outcomes and customers’ willingness to pay for water services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Improved understanding and quantification of social contact patterns that govern the transmission dynamics of respiratory viral infections has utility in the design of preventative and control measures such as vaccination and social distancing. The objective of this study was to quantify an age-specific matrix of contact rates for a predominantly rural low-income population that would support transmission dynamic modeling of respiratory viruses. Methods and Findings: From the population register of the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, coastal Kenya, 150 individuals per age group (<1, 1–5, 6–15, 16–19, 20–49, 50 and above, in years) were selected by stratified random sampling and requested to complete a day long paper diary of physical contacts (e.g. touch or embrace). The sample was stratified by residence (rural-to-semiurban), month (August 2011 to January 2012, spanning seasonal changes in socio-cultural activities), and day of week. Usable diary responses were obtained from 568 individuals (∼50% of expected). The mean number of contacts per person per day was 17.7 (95% CI 16.7–18.7). Infants reported the lowest contact rates (mean 13.9, 95% CI 12.1–15.7), while primary school students (6–15 years) reported the highest (mean 20.1, 95% CI 18.0–22.2). Rates of contact were higher within groups of similar age (assortative), particularly within the primary school students and adults (20–49 years). Adults and older participants (>50 years) exhibited the highest inter-generational contacts. Rural contact rates were higher than semiurban (18.8 vs 15.6, p = 0.002), with rural primary school students having twice as many assortative contacts as their semiurban peers. Conclusions and Significance: This is the first age-specific contact matrix to be defined for tropical Sub-Saharan Africa and has utility in age-structured models to assess the potential impact of interventions for directly transmitted respiratory infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water point mapping databases, generated through surveys of water sources such as wells and boreholes, are now available in many low and middle income countries, but often suffer from incomplete coverage. To address the partial coverage in such databases and gain insights into spatial patterns of water resource use, this study investigated the use of a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach to predict the geospatial distribution of drinking-water sources, using two types of unimproved sources in Kenya as illustration. Geographic locations of unprotected dug wells and surface water sources derived from the Water Point Data Exchange (WPDx) database were used as inputs to the MaxEnt model alongside geological/hydrogeological and socio-economic covariates. Predictive performance of the MaxEnt models was high (all > 0.9) based on Area Under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUC), and the predicted spatial distribution of water point was broadly consistent with household use of these unimproved drinking-water sources reported in household survey and census data. In developing countries where geospatial datasets concerning drinking-water sources often have necessarily limited resolution or incomplete spatial coverage, the modelled surface can provide an initial indication of the geography of unimproved drinking-water sources to target unserved populations and assess water source vulnerability to contamination and hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our ability to measure household-level food insecurity has revealed its critical role in a range of physical, psychosocial, and health outcomes. Currently, there is no analogous, standardized instrument for quantifying household-level water insecurity, which prevents us from understanding both its prevalence and consequences. Therefore, our objectives were to develop and validate a household water insecurity scale appropriate for use in our cohort in western Kenya. We used a range of qualitative techniques to develop a preliminary set of 29 household water insecurity questions and administered those questions at 15 and 18 months postpartum, concurrent with a suite of other survey modules. These data were complemented by data on quantity of water used and stored, and microbiological quality. Inter-item and item-total correlations were performed to reduce scale items to 20. Exploratory factor and parallel analyses were used to determine the latent factor structure; a unidimensional scale was hypothesized and tested using confirmatory factor and bifactor analyses, along with multiple statistical fit indices. Reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha and the coefficient of stability, which produced a coefficient alpha of 0.97 at 15 and 18 months postpartum and a coefficient of stability of 0.62. Predictive, convergent and discriminant validity of the final household water insecurity scale were supported based on relationships with food insecurity, perceived stress, per capita household water use, and time and money spent acquiring water. The resultant scale is a valid and reliable instrument. It can be used in this setting to test a range of hypotheses about the role of household water insecurity in numerous physical and psychosocial health outcomes, to identify the households most vulnerable to water insecurity, and to evaluate the effects of water-related interventions. To extend its applicability, we encourage efforts to develop a cross-culturally valid scale using robust qualitative and quantitative techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.S. is the main country in the world that delivers its food assistance primarily via transoceanic shipments of commodity-based in-kind food. This approach is costlier and less timely than cash-based assistance, which includes cash transfers, food vouchers, and local and regional procurement, where food is bought in or nearby the recipient country. The U.S.’s approach is exacerbated by a requirement that half of its transoceanic food shipments need to be sent on U.S.-flag vessels. We estimate the effect of these U.S. food assistance distribution policies on child mortality in northern Kenya by formulating and optimizing a supply chain model. In our model, monthly orders of transoceanic shipments and cash-based interventions are chosen to minimize child mortality subject to an annual budget constraint and to policy constraints on the allowable proportions of cash-based interventions and non-US-flag shipments. By varying the restrictiveness of these policy constraints, we assess the impact of possible changes in U.S. food aid policies on child mortality. The model includes an existing regression model that uses household survey data and geospatial data to forecast the mean mid-upper-arm circumference Z scores among children in a community, and allows food assistance to increase Z scores, and Z scores to influence mortality rates. We find that cash-based interventions are a much more powerful policy lever than the U.S.-flag vessel requirement: switching to cash-based interventions reduces child mortality from 4.4% to 3.7% (a 16.2% relative reduction) in our model, whereas eliminating the U.S.-flag vessel restriction without increasing the use of cash-based interventions generates a relative reduction in child mortality of only 1.1%. The great majority of the gains achieved by cash-based interventions are due to their reduced cost, not their reduced delivery lead times; i.e., the reduction of shipping expenses allows for more food to be delivered, which reduces child mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We set out to adapt the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI)-II in Kenya and examine its factorial structure. Methods: In the first phase we carried out in-depth interviews involving 29 adult members of the community to elicit their understanding of depression and identify aspects of the BDI-II that required adaptation. In the second phase, a modified version of BDI-II was administered to 221 adults randomly selected from the community to allow for the evaluation of its psychometric properties. In the third phase of the study we evaluated the discriminative validity of BDI-11 by comparing a randomly chosen community sample (n = 29) with caregivers of adolescents affected by HIV (n = 77). Results: A considerable overlap between the BDI symptoms and those generated in the interviews was observed. Relevant idioms and symptoms such as ‘thinking too much’ and ‘Kuchoka moyo (having a tired heart)’ were identified. The administration of the BDI had to be modified to make it suitable for the low literacy levels of our participants. Fit indices for several models (one factorial, two-factor model and a three factor model) were all within acceptable range. Evidence indicated that while multidimensional models could be fitted, the strong correlations between the factors implied that a single factor model may be the best suited solution (alpha [0.89], and a significant correlation with locally identified items [r = 0.51]) confirmed the good psychometric properties of the adapted BDI-II. No evidence was found to support the hypothesis that somatization was more prevalent. Lastly, caregivers of HIV affected adolescents had significantly higher scores compared to adults randomly selected from the community F(1, 121) = 23.31, p < .001 indicating the discriminative validity of the adapted BDI = II. Conclusions: With an adapted administration procedure, the BDI-II provides an adequate measure of depressive symptoms which can be used alongside other measures for proper diagnosis in a low literacy population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Anaemia is one of the significant public health problems among children in the world. Understanding risk factors of anaemia provides more insight to the nature and types of policies that can be put up to fight anaemia. We estimated the prevalence and risk factors of anaemia in a population-based, cross-sectional survey. Methodology: Blood samples from 11,711 children aged between 6 months and 14 years were collected using a single-use, spring-loaded, sterile lancet to make a finger prick. Anaemia was measured based on haemoglobin concentration level. The generalized linear model framework was used to analyse the data, in which the response variable was either a child was anemic or not anemic. Results: The overall prevalence of anaemia among the children in Kenya was estimated to be 28.8%. The risk of anaemia was found to decrease with age progressively with increase in each year of age; children below 1 year were at highest risk of anaemia. The risk of anaemia was significantly higher in male than female children. Mothers with secondary and above education had a protective effect on the risk of anaemia on their children. Malaria diagnosis status of a child was positively associated with risk anaemia. Conclusion: Controlling co-morbidity of malaria and improving maternal knowledge are potential options for reducing the burden of anaemia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]