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With more and more political candidates using social media for campaigning, researchers are looking at measuring the effectiveness of this medium. Most research, however, concentrates on the bare count of likes (or twitter mentions) in an attempt to correlate social media presence and winning. In this paper, we propose a novel method, Interaction Strength Plot (IntS) to measure the passive interactions between a candidate’s posts on Facebook and the users (liking the posts). Using this method on original Malaysian General Election (MGE13) and Australian Federal Elections (AFE13) Facebook Pages (FP) campaign data, we label an FP as performing well if both the posting frequency and the likes gathered are above average. Our method shows that over 60% of the MGE13 candidates and 85% of the AFE13 candidates studied in this paper had under-performing FP. Some of these FP owners would have been identified as popular based on bare count. Thus our performance chart is a vital step forward in measuring the effectiveness of online campaigning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Materials and Methods: In this paper, we propose a theoretical model based upon previous studies about personal and social network dynamics of job performance. We provide empirical support for this model using real-world data within the context of the Australian radiology profession. An examination of radiologists’ professional network topology through structural-positional and relational dimensions and radiologists’ personal characteristics in terms of knowledge, experience and self-esteem is provided. Thirty one breast imaging radiologists completed a purpose designed questionnaire regarding their network characteristics and personal attributes. These radiologists also independently read a test set of 60 mammographic cases: 20 cases with cancer and 40 normal cases. A Jackknife free response operating characteristic (JAFROC) method was used to measure the performance of the radiologists’ in detecting breast cancers. Results: Correlational analyses showed that reader performance was positively correlated with the social network variables of degree centrality and effective size, but negatively correlated with constraint and hierarchy. For personal characteristics, the number of mammograms read per year and self-esteem (self-evaluation) positively correlated with reader performance. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis indicated that the combination of number of mammograms read per year and network’s effective size, hierarchy and tie strength was the best fitting model, explaining 63.4% of the variance in reader performance. The results from this study indicate the positive relationship between reading high volumes of cases by radiologists and expertise development, but also strongly emphasise the association between effective social/professional interactions and informal knowledge sharing with high performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Risk adjusted mortality for intensive care units (ICU) is usually estimated via logistic regression. Random effects (RE) or hierarchical models have been advocated to estimate provider risk-adjusted mortality on the basis that standard estimators increase false outlier classification. The utility of fixed effects (FE) estimators (separate ICU-specific intercepts) has not been fully explored. Methods: Using a cohort from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database, 2009–2010, the model fit of different logistic estimators (FE, random-intercept and random-coefficient) was characterised: Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC; lower values better), receiver-operator characteristic curve area (AUC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic. ICU standardised hospital mortality ratios (SMR) and 95%CI were compared between models. ICU site performance (FE), relative to the grand observation-weighted mean (GO-WM) on odds ratio (OR), risk ratio (RR) and probability scales were assessed using model-based average marginal effects (AME). Results: The data set consisted of 145355 patients in 128 ICUs, years 2009 (47.5%) & 2010 (52.5%), with mean(SD) age 60.9(18.8) years, 56% male and ICU and hospital mortalities of 7.0% and 10.9% respectively. The FE model had a BIC = 64058, AUC = 0.90 and an H-L statistic P-value = 0.22. The best-fitting random-intercept model had a BIC = 64457, AUC = 0.90 and H-L statistic P-value = 0.32 and random-coefficient model, BIC = 64556, AUC = 0.90 and H-L statistic P-value = 0.28. Across ICUs and over years no outliers (SMR 95% CI excluding null-value = 1) were identified and no model difference in SMR spread or 95%CI span was demonstrated. Using AME (OR and RR scale), ICU site-specific estimates diverged from the GO-WM, and the effect spread decreased over calendar years. On the probability scale, a majority of ICUs demonstrated calendar year decrease, but in the for-profit sector, this trend was reversed. Conclusions: The FE estimator had model advantage compared with conventional RE models. Using AME, between and over-year ICU site-effects were easily characterised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bowel and bladder problems affect more than 50% of people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). These problems have a large impact on quality of life and place a significant burden on health systems. Objectives: This study aimed to ascertain the frequency of bladder and bowel problems in a select Australian MS cohort and to investigate the relationships between level of disability, bladder and bowel problems, and fatigue. Methods: Questionnaires on the nature and severity of MS symptoms were distributed to clients attending an Australian MS centre. Log-binomial regression and multiple linear regression models were used to investigate relationships between disability, fatigue, and bladder and bowel problems. Results and conclusions: Of 167 questionnaires distributed, 136 were completed. Bladder problems were reported by 87 (74.4%) respondents, whilst 66 (48.9%) experienced functional constipation and 43 (31.9%) faecal incontinence. This frequency in our select Australian MS population is similar to that reported globally. There was a significant correlation between level of disability and: bladder problems (p = 0.015), faecal incontinence (p = 0.001), fatigue (p<0.001) and constipation (p = 0.016, relative risk: 1.16). Further investigation into the causal relationships between various MS symptoms may be beneficial in the development of novel therapeutic strategies for people with MS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While drink driving continues to be significantly more common among male drivers, there is evidence from many countries that shows a growing trend of women engaging in this risky behaviour. The aims of the current study were threefold: (i) determine to what extent a sample of women drivers reported engaging in drink driving behaviour by expanding the construct into a range of definitions, (ii) determine if there were significant differences in self-reported engagement in drink driving behaviours in accordance with hazardous drinking behaviour, and (iii) identify which situational or personal factors would increase women drivers’ likelihood to engage in drink driving through presenting a range of scenarios. Method: Data were collected using an on-line, purpose-designed survey and promoted to reach women aged 17 years and older, living in Queensland, Australia. In addition to questions relating to demographic characteristics, participants completed items relating to engagement in seven drink driving related behaviours in the previous 12-month period, hazardous drinking as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, and likelihood of driving when unsure if over the legal limit for licence type across a range of scenarios manipulating different situational factors. A total of 644 valid responses were received in the two-week period the study was advertised. Results: The results demonstrate women’s self-reported engagement in drink driving behaviour ranged from 12.6% (driving when they believed they were over the legal limit) to over 50.0% (driving when unsure if over the legal limit the morning after drinking alcohol) and was significantly more likely among those who reported hazardous levels of alcohol use. Circumstances in which women reported they would drive when unsure if over the legal BAC limit were when they were a few blocks from home, if they subjectively felt they were not too intoxicated, or if they needed their car to get somewhere the next morning. Conclusion: Examining drink driving behaviour by way of responses to nuanced definitions provided valuable insight into self-reported engagement in the behaviour and highlights the usefulness of multi-measure dependent variables in order to illuminate a more accurate acknowledgement into both the type (and extent) of drink driving behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

“Why are neurotypicals so pig-ignorant about autism?” an autistic person wrote on the Curtin Autism Research Group’s on-line portal as a response to a call for research questions. Co-produced with an autistic researcher, knowledge about and attitudes towards autism were analysed from 1,054 completed surveys, representing the Australian neurotypical adult population. The majority, 81.5% of participants had a high level of knowledge and 81.3% of participants had a strong positive attitude towards autism. Neither age, nor education level had an impact on attitudes. However, attitudes were influenced by knowledge about ‘Societal Views and Ideas’; ‘What it Could be Like to Have Autism’; and the demographic variables ‘Knowing and having spent time around someone with autism’; and gender (women having more positive attitudes than men). Thus, targeted interventions, geared more towards men than women, to increase knowledge about autism could further improve attitudes and increase acceptance of the autistic community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Ageing in place is one of the greatest desires of elderly people. Assistive digital technologies could potentially delay the institutionalization of the elderly people and allow them ageing in place. This study develops a population-wide cost estimating framework for adopting digital technologies that can improve the quality of life of elderly people through examining an Australian region. Methods: We developed a five-stage cost estimation framework, which involved progressive forecasting of elderly population and direct cost estimation methods. The forecasting and cost estimation models have been set for a 10-year period because the prediction accuracy from cross-sectional data is better in the short to medium term compared to the long-term. For cost estimation, we categorised the ageing population on the basis of the number of chronic diseases that they have contracted. Costs of assistive technologies were collected from open sources. The model has been tested in the Fitzroy and Central West, a regional area of Queensland in Australia. A stakeholder panel discussion in a workshop format was used to validate the appropriateness of the proposed framework and the study findings. Results: This study identified eight common chronic diseases with different comorbidity patterns in Australia. We also identified the required assistive technologies to assist patients with chronic diseases. This study estimated that annual per capita cost for technological intervention could range from AUD 4,169 to AUD 7,551 on the basis of different price margins of the technologies. Conclusion: The approach of categorising the aged cohorts on the basis of the number of chronic diseases helps estimate population-wide costs compared to using single technology intervention costs for a particular chronic disease cohort. The cost estimation framework and the method developed in this study can assist the government to estimate costs for ageing-in-place programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aims to examine the costs associated with a Hospital in the Nursing Home (HiNH) program in Queensland Australia directed at patients from residential aged care facilities (RACFs) with emergency care needs. Methods: A cost analysis was undertaken comparing the costs under the HiNH program and the current practice, in parallel with a pre-post controlled study design. The study was conducted in two Queensland public hospitals: the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital (intervention hospital) and the Logan Hospital (control hospital). Main outcome measures were the associated incremental costs or savings concerning the HiNH program provision and the acute hospital care utilisation over one year after intervention. Results: The initial deterministic analysis calculated the total induced mean costs associated with providing the HiNH program over one year as AU$488,116, and the total induced savings relating to acute hospital care service utilisation of AU$8,659,788. The total net costs to the health service providers were thus calculated at -AU$8,171,671 per annum. Results from the probabilistic sensitivity analysis (based on 10,000 simulations) showed the mean and median annual net costs associated with the HiNH program implementation were -AU$8,444,512 and–AU$8,202,676, and a standard deviation of 2,955,346. There was 95% certainty that the values of net costs would fall within the range from -AU$15,018,055 to -AU$3,358,820. Conclusions: The costs relating to implementing the HiNH program appear to be much less than the savings in terms of associated decreases in acute hospital service utilisation. The HiNH service model is likely to have the cost-saving potential while improving the emergency care provision for RACF residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to elicit experts’ opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The 12-item Partners in Health scale (PIH) was developed in Australia to measure self-management behaviour and knowledge in patients with chronic diseases, and has undergone several changes. Our aim was to assess the construct validity and reliability of the latest PIH version in Dutch COPD patients. Methods: The 12 items of the PIH, scored on a self-rated 9-point Likert scale, are used to calculate total and subscale scores (knowledge; coping; recognition and management of symptoms; and adherence to treatment). We used forward-backward translation of the latest version of the Australian PIH to define a Dutch PIH (PIH(Du)). Mokken Scale Analysis and common Factor Analysis were performed on data from a Dutch COPD sample to investigate the psychometric properties of the Dutch PIH; and to determine whether the four-subscale solution previously found for the original Australian PIH could be replicated for the Dutch PIH. Results: Two subscales were found for the Dutch PIH data (n = 118); 1) knowledge and coping; 2) recognition and management of symptoms, adherence to treatment. The correlation between the two Dutch subscales was 0.43. The lower-bound of the reliability of the total scale equalled 0.84. Factor analysis indicated that the first two factors explained a larger percentage of common variance (39.4% and 19.9%) than could be expected when using random data (17.5% and 15.1%). Conclusion: We recommend using two PIH subscale scores when assessing self-management in Dutch COPD patients. Our results did not support the four-subscale structure as previously reported for the original Australian PIH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Herpes zoster (HZ) is a common condition that increases in incidence with older age but vaccines are available to prevent the disease. However, there are limited data estimating the health system burden attributable to herpes zoster by age. Methods: In this study, we quantified excess healthcare resource usage associated with HZ during the acute/sub-acute period of disease (21days before to 90 days after onset) in 5952 cases and an equal number of controls matched on age, sex, and prior healthcare resource usage. Estimates were adjusted for potential confounders in multivariable regression models. Using population-based estimates of HZ incidence, we calculated the age-specific excess number of health service usage events attributable to HZ in the population. Results: Per HZ case, there was an average of 0.06 (95% CI 0.04–0.08) excess hospitalisations, 1.61 (95% CI 1.51–1.69) excess general practitioner visits, 1.96 (95% CI 1.86–2.15) excess prescriptions filled and 0.11 (95% CI 0.09–0.13) excess emergency department visits. The average number of healthcare resource use events, and the estimated excess per 100,000 population increased with increasing age but were similar for men and women, except for higher rates of hospitalisation in men. The excess annual HZ associated burden of hospitalisations was highest in adults ≥80 years (N = 2244, 95%CI 1719–2767); GP visits was highest in those 60–69 years (N = 50567, 95%CI 39958–61105), prescriptions and ED visits were highest in 70–79 years (N = 50524, 95%CI 40634–60471 and N = 2891, 95%CI 2319–3449 respectively). Conclusions: This study provides important data to establish the healthcare utilisation associated with HZ against which detailed cost-effectiveness analyses of HZ immunisation in older adults can be conducted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Low back pain (LBP) is a major health problem. Globally it is responsible for the most years lived with disability. The most problematic type of LBP is chronic LBP (pain lasting longer than 3 mo); it has a poor prognosis and is costly, and interventions are only moderately effective. Targeting interventions according to risk profile is a promising approach to prevent the onset of chronic LBP. Developing accurate prognostic models is the first step. No validated prognostic models are available to accurately predict the onset of chronic LBP. The primary aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model to estimate the risk of chronic LBP.Methods and Findings: We used the PROGRESS framework to specify a priori methods, which we published in a study protocol. Data from 2,758 patients with acute LBP attending primary care in Australia between 5 November 2003 and 15 July 2005 (development sample, n = 1,230) and between 10 November 2009 and 5 February 2013 (external validation sample, n = 1,528) were used to develop and externally validate the model. The primary outcome was chronic LBP (ongoing pain at 3 mo). In all, 30% of the development sample and 19% of the external validation sample developed chronic LBP. In the external validation sample, the primary model (PICKUP) discriminated between those who did and did not develop chronic LBP with acceptable performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.66 [95% CI 0.63 to 0.69]). Although model calibration was also acceptable in the external validation sample (intercept = -0.55, slope = 0.89), some miscalibration was observed for high-risk groups. The decision curve analysis estimated that, if decisions to recommend further intervention were based on risk scores, screening could lead to a net reduction of 40 unnecessary interventions for every 100 patients presenting to primary care compared to a "treat all" approach. Limitations of the method include the model being restricted to using prognostic factors measured in existing studies and using stepwise methods to specify the model. Limitations of the model include modest discrimination performance. The model also requires recalibration for local settings.Conclusions: Based on its performance in these cohorts, this five-item prognostic model for patients with acute LBP may be a useful tool for estimating risk of chronic LBP. Further validation is required to determine whether screening with this model leads to a net reduction in unnecessary interventions provided to low-risk patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Core Goodeniaceae is a clade of ~330 species primarily distributed in Australia. Considerable variation in flower morphology exists within this group and we aim to use geometric morphometrics to characterize this variation across the two major subclades: Scaevola sensu lato (s.l.) and Goodenia s.l., the latter of which was hypothesized to exhibit greater variability in floral symmetry form. We test the hypothesis that floral morphological variation can be adequately characterized by our morphometric approach, and that discrete groups of floral symmetry morphologies exist, which broadly correlate with subjectively determined groups. From 335 images of 44 species in the Core Goodeniaceae, two principal components were computed that describe >98% of variation in all datasets. Increasing values of PC1 ventralize the dorsal petals (increasing the angle between them), whereas increasing values of PC2 primarily ventralize the lateral petals (decreasing the angle between them). Manipulation of these two morphological “axes” alone was sufficient to recreate any of the general floral symmetry patterns in the Core Goodeniaceae. Goodenia s.l. exhibits greater variance than Scaevola s.l. in PC1 and PC2, and has a significantly lower mean value for PC1. Clustering clearly separates fan-flowers (with dorsal petals at least 120° separated) from the others, whereas the distinction between pseudo-radial and bilabiate clusters is less clear and may form a continuum rather than two distinct groups. Transitioning from the average fan-flower to the average non-fan-flower is described almost exclusively by PC1, whereas PC2 partially describes the transition between bilabiate and pseudo-radial morphologies. Our geometric morphometric method accurately models Core Goodeniaceae floral symmetry diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: There is a lack of information in ethnic minority groups with regard to presentation and treatment of early node-positive breast cancer. We carried out a retrospective study of patients referred to two tertiary cancer centers in South Western Sydney, both of which serve a high proportion of this ethnic minority population. Patients and methods: Women who had pathologically node-positive non-metastatic breast cancer (T1-3, N1-3, M0) diagnosed between 2003 and 2006 were studied, with variables of interest being tumor size, number of positive nodes, histological grade, hormone receptor status, age at diagnosis, country of birth and treatment. We compared the Asian and Western subgroups with regard to tumor characteristics, treatment and clinical outcomes. Results: A total of 652 eligible patients were identified, with a median follow-up of 6.1 years. Women with Asian backgrounds (n = 125, 20%) were significantly younger at presentation (48 years versus 55 years, p-value <0.0001) and more likely to undergo mastectomy (53% versus 39%, p-value 0.0009) and chemotherapy (86% versus 72%, p-value 0.0063) than their non-Asian counterparts. Tumor stage, grade and receptor status were not statistically different between these two groups. There were also no differences in disease-free survival and overall survival, with medians of 12.7 and 14.8 years respectively. Conclusion: Women of Asian background are younger at diagnosis, which may reflect population epidemiology and likely results in higher uptake of chemotherapy. Higher mastectomy rates may be influenced by cultural factors. Future research is warranted to investigate potential differences in tumor biology, psychosocial, economic and cultural factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To determine if there is a difference in serum zinc concentration between normoglycaemic, pre-diabetic and type-2 diabetic groups and if this is associated with pancreatic beta cell function and insulin sensitivity in the former 2 groups. Method: Cross sectional study of a random sample of older community-dwelling men and women in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. Beta cell function, insulin sensitivity and insulin resistance were calculated for normoglycaemic and prediabetes participants using the Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA-2) calculator. Result: A total of 452 participants were recruited for this study. Approximately 33% (N = 149) had diabetes, 33% (N = 151) had prediabetes and 34% (N = 152) were normoglycaemic. Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) parameters were found to be significantly different between normoglycaemic and prediabetes groups (p<0.001). In adjusted linear regression, higher serum zinc concentration was associated with increased insulin sensitivity (p = 0.01) in the prediabetic group. There was also a significant association between smoking and worse insulin sensitivity. Conclusion: Higher serum zinc concentration is associated with increased insulin sensitivity. Longitudinal studies are required to determine if low serum zinc concentration plays a role in progression from pre-diabetes to diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]