Search

This paper examines whether tobacco expenditure leads to the crowding out or crowding in of different expenditure items in South Africa. We apply genetic matching to expenditure quartiles of the 2010/2011 South African Income and Expenditure Survey. Genetic matching is a more appealing approach for dealing with the endogeneity of tobacco expenditure that often plagues studies using systems of demand equations. Further, genetic matching provides transparent measures of covariate balance giving the analyst objective means of assessing match success. We find that the poorest tobacco consuming households in South Africa consistently allocate smaller budget shares towards food items than non-smoking households. Specifically, we find that dairy, fruits, nuts and oils are displaced in favour of tobacco expenditure in the two poorest quartiles. Unsurprisingly, food items are never displaced for households in the top two quartiles, given these households’ greater access to resources. Like other studies in the literature, we find that tobacco expenditure consistently crowds-in alcohol across all quartiles confirming the strong complementarities between the two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

TB is rated as one of the world’s deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Interventions to prevent rape perpetration must be designed to address its drivers. This paper seeks to extend understanding of drivers of single and multiple perpetrator rape (referred to here as SPR and MPR respectively) and the relationships between socio-economic status, childhood trauma, peer pressure, other masculine behaviours and rape. Method: 1370 young men aged 15 to 26 were interviewed as part of the randomised controlled trial evaluation of Stepping Stones in the rural Eastern Cape. We used multinomial to compare the characteristics of men who reported rape perpetration at baseline. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to examine pathways to rape perpetration. Results: 76.1% of young men had never raped, 10.0% had perpetrated SPR and 13.9% MPR. The factors associated with both MPR and SPR (compared to never having raped) were indicators of socio-economic status (SES), childhood trauma, sexual coercion by a woman, drug and alcohol use, peer pressure susceptibility, having had transactional sex, multiple sexual partners and being physically violent towards a partner. The SEM showed the relationship between SES and rape perpetration to be mediated by gender inequitable masculinity. It was complex as there was a direct path indicating that SES correlated with the masculinity variable directly such that men of higher SES had more gender inequitable masculinities, and indirect path mediated by peer pressure resistance indicated that the former pertained so long as men lacked peer pressure resistance. Having a higher SES conveyed greater resistance for some men. There was also a path mediated through childhood trauma, such that men of lower SES were more likely to have a higher childhood trauma exposure and this correlated with a higher likelihood of having the gender inequitable masculinity (with or without the mediating effect of peer pressure resistance). Discussion: Both higher and lower socio-economic status were associated with raping. Prevention of rape perpetration must focus on changing men’s gender ideals, entitlements and inequitable practices. Reducing poverty and adverse childhood experiences should also be of benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the effectiveness of sequential aerosol technique (SAT) against riverine tsetse flies in southern Africa. An overview on the tuning control operations concerning the reproduction of tsetse flies, is highlighted. Also emphasized are the tsetse species' challenging habitats in the adaptation of SAT, is also emphasized.

Background: The World Health Organization recommends "same-day" initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV patients who are eligible and ready. Identifying efficient, safe, and feasible procedures for determining same-day eligibility and readiness is now a priority. The Simplified Algorithm for Treatment Eligibility (SLATE) study evaluated a clinical algorithm that allows healthcare workers to determine eligibility for same-day treatment and to initiate ART at the patient's first clinic visit.Methods and Findings: SLATE was an individually randomized trial at three outpatient clinics in urban settlements in Johannesburg, South Africa and three hospital clinics in western Kenya. Adult, nonpregnant, HIV-positive, ambulatory patients presenting for any HIV care, including HIV testing, but not yet on ART were enrolled and randomized to the SLATE algorithm arm or standard care. The SLATE algorithm used four screening tools-a symptom self-report, medical history questionnaire, physical examination, and readiness assessment-to ascertain eligibility for same-day initiation or refer for further care. Follow-up was by record review, and analysis was conducted by country. We report primary outcomes of 1) ART initiation ≤28 days and 2) initiation ≤28 days and retention in care ≤8 months of enrollment. From March 7, 2017 to April 17, 2018, we enrolled 600 patients (median [IQR] age 34 [29-40] and CD4 count 286 [128-490]; 63% female) in South Africa and 477 patients in Kenya (median [IQR] age 35 [29-43] and CD4 count 283 [117-541]; 58% female). In the intervention arm, 78% of patients initiated ≤28 days in South Africa, compared to 68% in the standard arm (risk difference [RD] [95% confidence interval (CI)] 10% [3%-17%]); in Kenya, 94% of intervention-arm patients initiated ≤28 days compared to 89% in the standard arm (6% [0.5%-11%]). By 8 months in South Africa, 161/298 (54%) intervention-arm patients had initiated and were retained, compared to 146/302 (48%) in the standard arm (6% [(2% to 14%]). By 8 months in Kenya, the corresponding retention outcomes were identical in both arms (137/240 [57%] of intervention-arm patients and 136/237 [57%] of standard-arm patients). Limitations of the trial included limited geographic representativeness, exclusion of patients too ill to participate, missing viral load data, greater study fidelity to the algorithm than might be achieved in standard care, and secular changes in standard care over the course of the study.Conclusions: In South Africa, the SLATE algorithm increased uptake of ART within 28 days by 10% and showed a numerical increase (6%) in retention at 8 months. In Kenya, the algorithm increased uptake of ART within 28 days by 6% but found no difference in retention at 8 months. Eight-month retention was poor in both arms and both countries. These results suggest that a simple structured algorithm for same-day treatment initiation procedures is feasible and can increase and accelerate ART uptake but that early retention on treatment remains problematic.Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02891135, registered September 1, 2016. First participant enrolled March 6, 2017 in South Africa and July 13, 2017 in Kenya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We describe CD4 count recovery among HIV positive individuals who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) with and without severe immune suppression using complete laboratory data from South Africa’s national HIV treatment programme between 2010 and 2014 and discuss implications for CD4 count monitoring. Methods: Retrospective analysis of routinely collected laboratory data from South Africa’s National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS). A probabilistic record linkage algorithm was used to create a cohort of HIV positive individuals who initiated ART between 2010 and 2014 based on timing of CD4 count and viral load measurements. A CD4 count < 50 copies/μl at ART initiation was considered severe immunosuppression. A multivariable piecewise mixed-effects linear regression model adjusting for age, gender, year of starting ART, viral suppression in follow up and province was used to predict CD4 counts during follow up. Results: 1,070,900 individuals had evidence of starting ART during 2010–2014 and met the criteria for inclusion in the cohort -46.6% starting ART with CD4 < 200 cells/μl and 10.1% with CD4 < 50 cells/ μl. For individuals with CD4 counts < 200 cells/μl, predicted CD4 counts > 200 cells/μl, >350 cells/μl and >500 cells/μl corresponded with mean follow up durations of 1.5 years (standard deviation [s.d] 1.1), 1.9years (s.d 1.2) and 2.1 years (s.d 1.3 years). For those with CD4 counts < 50 cells/μl, predicted CD4 count above these threshold corresponded with mean follow up durations of 2.5 years (s.d 0.9 years), 4.4 years (s.d 0.4 years) and 5.0 years (s.d 0.1years) for recovery to the same thresholds. CD4 count recovery varied mostly with duration on ART, CD4 count at the start of ART and gender. Conclusion: For individuals starting with ART with severe immunosuppression, CD4 recovery to 200cells/μl did not occur or took longer than 12 month for significant proportions. CD4 monitoring and interventions recommended for advanced HIV disease should continue until full recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Howiesons Poort (HP) sites, over the past decades, have provided exceptional access to anthropogenic remains that are enhancing our understanding of early modern human behaviour during the Middle Stone Age in southern Africa. Here, we analyse the technological and typological trends in the lithic record that form part of these behaviours, based on the HP sequence recently excavated at Klipdrift Shelter, located on the southern Cape coast of South Africa. This study contributes to enhance knowledge on the mechanisms of changes that occurred during the transition to the post-HP. Despite patterns of continuity observed, notably for core reduction methods, the seven successive lithic assemblages show significant changes in the typological characteristics and raw material selection but also in the relative importance of blade production over time. However, these changes are not necessarily synchronic and occur either as gradual processes or as abrupt technological shifts. Consequently, we cross-examine the association between the lithic phasing and other anthropogenic remains within the HP sequence at Klipdrift Shelter. We explore the implications of these patterns of changes in terms of cultural behaviours and population dynamics during the HP and we highlight the relationship between the different phases of the HP sequence at Klipdrift Shelter and those from other South African HP sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past few decades, a diverse array of research has emphasized the precocity of technically advanced and symbolic practices occurring during the southern African Middle Stone Age. However, uncertainties regarding the regional chrono-cultural framework constrain models and identification of the cultural and ecological mechanisms triggering the development of such early innovative behaviours. Here, we present new results and a refined chronology for the Pietersburg, a techno-complex initially defined in the late 1920’s, which has disappeared from the literature since the 1980’s. We base our revision of this techno-complex on ongoing excavations at Bushman Rock Shelter (BRS) in Limpopo Province, South Africa, where two Pietersburg phases (an upper phase called ‘21’ and a lower phase called ‘28’) are recognized. Our analysis focuses on the ‘28’ phase, characterized by a knapping strategy based on Levallois and semi-prismatic laminar reduction systems and typified by the presence of end-scrapers. Luminescence chronology provides two sets of ages for the upper and lower Pietersburg of BRS, dated respectively to 73±6ka and 75±6ka on quartz and to 91±10ka and 97±10ka on feldspar, firmly positioning this industry within MIS5. Comparisons with other published lithic assemblages show technological differences between the Pietersburg from BRS and other southern African MIS5 traditions, especially those from the Western and Eastern Cape. We argue that, at least for part of MIS5, human populations in South Africa were regionally differentiated, a process that most likely impacted the way groups were territorially and socially organized. Nonetheless, comparisons between MIS5 assemblages also indicate some typological similarities, suggesting some degree of connection between human groups, which shared similar innovations but manipulated them in different ways. We pay particular attention to the end-scrapers from BRS, which represent thus far the earliest documented wide adoption of such tool-type and provide further evidence for the innovative processes characterizing southern Africa from the MIS5 onwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: South Africa has undergone multiple expansions in antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility from an initial CD4+ threshold of ≤200 cells/μl to providing ART for all people living with HIV (PLWH) as of September 2016. We evaluated the association of programmatic changes in ART eligibility with loss from care, both prior to ART initiation and within the first 16 weeks of starting treatment, during a period of programmatic expansion to ART treatment at CD4+ ≤ 350 cells/μl.Methods and Findings: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 4,025 treatment-eligible, non-pregnant PLWH accessing care in a community health center in Gugulethu Township affiliated with the Desmond Tutu HIV Centre in Cape Town. The median age of participants was 34 years (IQR 28-41 years), almost 62% were female, and the median CD4+ count was 173 cells/μl (IQR 92-254 cells/μl). Participants were stratified into 2 cohorts: an early cohort, enrolled into care at the health center from 1 January 2009 to 31 August 2011, when guidelines mandated that ART initiation required CD4+ ≤ 200 cells/μl, pregnancy, advanced clinical symptoms (World Health Organization [WHO] stage 4), or comorbidity (active tuberculosis); and a later cohort, enrolled into care from 1 September 2011 to 31 December 2013, when the treatment threshold had been expanded to CD4+ ≤ 350 cells/μl. Demographic and clinical factors were compared before and after the policy change using chi-squared tests to identify potentially confounding covariates, and logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk of pre-treatment (pre-ART) loss from care and early loss within the first 16 weeks on treatment, adjusting for age, baseline CD4+, and WHO stage. Compared with participants in the later cohort, participants in the earlier cohort had significantly more advanced disease: median CD4+ 146 cells/μl versus 214 cells/μl (p < 0.001), 61.1% WHO stage 3/4 disease versus 42.8% (p < 0.001), and pre-ART mortality of 34.2% versus 16.7% (p < 0.001). In total, 385 ART-eligible PLWH (9.6%) failed to initiate ART, of whom 25.7% died before ever starting treatment. Of the 3,640 people who started treatment, 58 (1.6%) died within the first 16 weeks in care, and an additional 644 (17.7%) were lost from care within 16 weeks of starting ART. PLWH who did start treatment in the later cohort were significantly more likely to discontinue care in <16 weeks (19.8% versus 15.8%, p = 0.002). After controlling for baseline CD4+, WHO stage, and age, this effect remained significant (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.30, 95% CI 1.09-1.55). As such, it remains unclear if early attrition from care was due to a "healthy cohort" effect or to overcrowding as programs expanded to accommodate the broader guidelines for treatment. Our findings were limited by a lack of generalizability (given that these data were from a single high-volume site where testing and treatment were available) and an inability to formally investigate the effect of crowding on the main outcome.Conclusions: Over one-quarter of this ART-eligible cohort did not achieve the long-term benefits of treatment due to early mortality, ART non-initiation, or early ART discontinuation. Those who started treatment in the later cohort appeared to be more likely to discontinue care early, and this outcome appeared to be independent of CD4+ count or WHO stage. Future interventions should focus on those most at risk for early loss from care as programs continue to expand in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat treatment was one of the first transformative technologies in the southern African Middle Stone Age (MSA), with many studies in the Cape coastal zone of South Africa identifying it as an essential step in the preparation of silcrete prior to its use in stone tool manufacture. To date, however, no studies have investigated whether heat treatment is necessary for all silcrete types, and how geographically widespread heat treatment was in the subcontinent. The aim of this study is to investigate experimentally whether heat treatment continued further north into the Kalahari Desert of Botswana and northernmost South Africa, the closest area with major silcrete outcrops to the Cape. For this we analyse the thermal transformations of silcrete from both regions, proposing a comprehensive model of the chemical, crystallographic and ‘water’-related processes taking place upon heat treatment. For the first time, we also explore the mobility of minor and trace elements during heat treatment and introduce a previously undescribed mechanism—steam leaching—causing depletion of a limited number of elements. The results of this comparative study reveal the Cape and Kalahari silcrete to respond fundamentally differently to heat treatment. While the former can be significantly improved by heat, the latter is deteriorated in terms of knapping quality. These findings have important implications for our understanding of the role of fire as a technical solution in MSA stone tool knapping, and for the extension of its use in southern Africa. Silcrete heat treatment—at least in the form we understand it today—may have been a strictly regional phenomenon, confined to a narrow zone along the west and south coast of the Cape. On the basis of our findings, silcrete heat treatment should not be added as a new trait on the list of behaviours that characterise the MSA of the southern African subcontinent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon isotope analysis of four baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) trees from the Pafuri region of South Africa yielded a 1000-year proxy rainfall record. The Pafuri record age model was based on 17 radiocarbon dates, cross correlation of the climate record, and ring structures that were presumed to be annual for two of the trees. Here we present the analysis of five additional baobabs from the Mapungubwe region, approximately 200km west of Pafuri. The Mapungubwe chronology demonstrates that ring structures are not necessarily annually formed, and accordingly the Pafuri chronology is revised. Changes in intrinsic water-use efficiency indicate an active response by the trees to elevated atmospheric CO2, but this has little effect on the environmental signal. The revised Pafuri record, and the new Mapungubwe record correlate significantly with local rainfall. Both records confirm that the Medieval Warm Period was substantially wetter than present, and the Little Ice Age was the driest period in the last 1000 years. Although Mapungubwe is generally drier than Pafuri, both regions experience elevated rainfall peaking between AD 1570 and AD 1620 after which dry conditions persist in the Mapungubwe area until about AD 1840. Differences between the two records correlate with Agulhas Current sea-surface temperature variations suggesting east/west displacement of the temperate tropical trough system as an underlying mechanism. The Pafuri and Mapungubwe records are combined to provide a regional climate proxy record for the northern summer rainfall area of southern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid diagnostic tools have been shown to improve linkage of patients to care. In the context of infectious diseases, assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of such tools at the population level, accounting for both direct and indirect effects, is key to informing adoption of these tools. Point-of-care (POC) CD4 testing has been shown to be highly effective in increasing the proportion of HIV positive patients who initiate ART. We assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing POC CD4 testing at the population level in South Africa in a range of care contexts, using a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission, calibrated to the South African HIV epidemic. We performed a meta-analysis to quantify the differences between POC and laboratory CD4 testing on the proportion linking to care following CD4 testing. Cumulative infections averted and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated over one and three years. We estimated that POC CD4 testing introduced in the current South African care context can prevent 1.7% (95% CI: 0.4% - 4.3%) of new HIV infections over 1 year. In that context, POC CD4 testing was cost-effective 99.8% of the time after 1 year with a median estimated ICER of US$4,468/DALY averted. In healthcare contexts with expanded HIV testing and improved retention in care, POC CD4 testing only became cost-effective after 3 years. The results were similar when, in addition, ART was offered irrespective of CD4 count, and CD4 testing was used for clinical assessment. Our findings suggest that even if ART is expanded to all HIV positive individuals and HIV testing efforts are increased in the near future, POC CD4 testing is a cost-effective tool, even within a short time horizon. Our study also illustrates the importance of evaluating the potential impact of such diagnostic technologies at the population level, so that indirect benefits and costs can be incorporated into estimations of cost-effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health challenge in South Africa. However, little attention is paid to the impact of health related quality of life (HRQL) among TB patients at the beginning and at the end of TB treatment. This study assesses factors associated with HRQL among tuberculosis patients in three high risk provinces in South Africa. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted at primary health care settings. Patients completed the HRQL social functioning (SF)-12 health survey. Comparison of Physical Health Summary Score (PCS) and Mental Health Summary Score (MCS) was assessed at 6 months after treatment. Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were used to examine the factors associated with changes in HRQL. Results: In all patients, after 6 months of treatment there was a significant improvement in HRQL with the biggest increase in the PCS. A higher educational qualification had a strong significant positive effect on the mental HRQL. Psychological distress showed a significant negative association with physical and mental HRQL after six months. Permanent residence showed a significant positive association with mental HRQL among TB patients compared to those living in shack/traditional dwellings. Rating ones health as being good and fair/poor was significantly associated with poor physical HRQL. Twenty drinks or more in the past month had a significant negative effect on the physical HRQL. Conclusion: The findings suggest that programmes targeted at improving TB treatment success should have specific interventions for patients with low educational background, impoverished households/communities and those with hazardous or harmful alcohol use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) infants are a growing population in sub-Saharan Africa especially with the increasing coverage of more effective prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) antiretroviral therapy regimens. This study describes the characteristics of South African HEU infants, investigates factors impacting birth weight and assesses their growth within the first 28 weeks of life. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort based on routine clinical data from two South African PMTCT programmes. Data were collected between 2007 and 2013. Linear regression assessed factors affecting birth weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ) while growth (longitudinal WAZ) was assessed using mixed effects models. Results: We assessed the growth of 2621 HEU infants (median birth WAZ was -0.65 (IQR -1.46; 0.0) and 51% were male). The feeding modalities practised were as follows: 0.5% exclusive breastfeeding, 7.9% breastfeeding with unknown exclusivity, 0.08% mixed breastfeeding and 89.2% formula feeding. Mothers with CD4 <200 cells/μl delivered infants with a lower birth WAZ (adjusted ß -0.253 [95% CI -0.043; -0.072], p = 0.006) compared to mothers with aCD4 ≥500 cells/μl. Similarly, mothers who did not receive antiretroviral drugs delivered infants with a lower birth WAZ (adjusted ß -0.39 [95% CI -0.67; -0.11], p = 0.007) compared to mothers who received antenatal antiretrovirals. Infants with a birth weight <2 500g (ß 0.070 [95% CI 0.061; 0.078], p <0.0001) experienced faster growth within the first 28 weeks of life compared to infants with a birth weight ≥2 500g. Infants with any breastfeeding exposure experienced slower longitudinal growth compared to formula fed infants (adjusted ß -0.012 [95% CI 0.021; -0.003], p = 0.011). Conclusion: Less severe maternal disease and the use of antiretrovirals positively impacts birth weight in this cohort of South African HEU infants. Formula feeding was common with breastfed infants experiencing marginally slower longitudinal growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International Model, which simulates the natural history and treatment of HIV. In this new model, the CEPAC Dynamic Model (CDM), the probability of HIV transmission per sexual encounter between short-term, long-term and commercial sex worker partners depends upon the HIV RNA and disease stage of the infected partner, condom use, and the circumcision status of the uninfected male partner. We included behavioral, demographic and biological values in the CDM and calibrated to HIV prevalence in South Africa pre-antiretroviral therapy. Using a multi-step fitting procedure based on Bayesian melding methodology, we performed 264,225 simulations of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and identified 3,750 parameter sets that created an epidemic and had behavioral characteristics representative of a South African population pre-ART. Of these parameter sets, 564 contributed 90% of the likelihood weight to the fit, and closely reproduced the UNAIDS HIV prevalence curve in South Africa from 1990–2002. The calibration was sensitive to changes in the rate of formation of short-duration partnerships and to the partnership acquisition rate among high-risk individuals, both of which impacted concurrency. Runs that closely fit to historical HIV prevalence reflect diverse ranges for individual parameter values and predict a wide range of possible steady-state prevalence in the absence of interventions, illustrating the value of the calibration procedure and utility of the model for evaluating interventions. This model, which includes detailed behavioral patterns and HIV natural history, closely fits HIV prevalence estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]