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In a recidivism prediction context, there is no consensus on which modeling strategy should be followed for obtaining an optimal prediction model. In previous papers, a range of statistical and machine learning techniques were benchmarked on recidivism data with a binary outcome. However, two important tree ensemble methods, namely gradient boosting and random forests were not extensively evaluated. In this paper, we further explore the modeling potential of these techniques in the binary outcome criminal prediction context. Additionally, we explore the predictive potential of classical statistical and machine learning methods for censored time-to-event data. A range of statistical manually specified statistical and (semi-)automatic machine learning models is fitted on Dutch recidivism data, both for the binary outcome case and censored outcome case. To enhance generalizability of results, the same models are applied to two historical American data sets, the North Carolina prison data. For all datasets, (semi-) automatic modeling in the binary case seems to provide no improvement over an appropriately manually specified traditional statistical model. There is however evidence of slightly improved performance of gradient boosting in survival data. Results on the reconviction data from two sources suggest that both statistical and machine learning should be tried out for obtaining an optimal model. Even if a flexible black-box model does not improve upon the predictions of a manually specified model, it can serve as a test whether important interactions are missing or other misspecification of the model are present and can thus provide more security in the modeling process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are public officials more responsive to requests from affluent or poor constituents? A growing body of evidence suggests that lawmakers are more responsive to the rich when they craft policy. However, some scholars theorize that officials also exhibit a corresponding bias in favor of the poor when they handle casework, essentially giving policy to the rich and services to the poor. In this paper, we test this casework prediction using four experiments in which confederates sent simple requests to state or local officials. In each, our confederates’ reported social classes were randomly assigned and signaled with a brief introductory statement mentioning the sender’s occupation or economic situation. Across our samples, we find precisely-estimated null effects of social class biases: the officials we studied were equally likely to respond regardless of the constituent’s class. These findings raise doubts about whether casework is really a class-biased process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Concurrent sexual partnerships (partnerships that overlap in time) may contribute to higher rates of HIV transmission in African Americans. Attitudes toward a behavior constitute an important component of most models of health-related behavior and behavioral change. We have developed a scale, employing realistic vignettes that appear to reliably measure attitudes about concurrency in young African American adults. Methods: Vignette-based items to assess attitudes about concurrency were developed following focus groups and cognitive testing of items adapted from existing scales assessing psychosocial constructs surrounding related sexual behaviors. The new items were included in a telephone survey of African American adults (18–34 years old) in Eastern North Carolina immediately before and after a radio campaign designed to discourage concurrency. We performed an exploratory factor analysis on each sample (pre- and post-campaign) to cross-validate results. We retained factors with a primary loading of ≥0.50 and no secondary loading >0.30. Cronbach’s coefficient alpha was used to evaluate internal reliability. Associations in the predicted direction between the mean responses to items on the final factor and known correlates of concurrency validated the scale. Results: Factor analysis in a random pre-campaign subsample yielded a one-factor 6-item scale with acceptable internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = 0.79). As expected, the attitude factor was positively associated with participation in concurrent partnerships, whether assessed by self-report (r = 0.298, p<0.0001) or deduced from dates of recent sexual partnerships (r = 0.298, p<0.0001). The factor was also positively associated with alcohol (r = 0.216, p<0.0001) and drug use (r = 0.225, p<0.0001) and negatively associated with increasing age (r = -0.088, p- = 0.02) and female gender (r = -0.232, p<0.0001). Factor analyses repeated in the second random pre-campaign subsample and post-campaign sample confirmed these results. Conclusion: A vignette-based scale may be an effective measure of key attitudes related to concurrency and potentially a useful tool to evaluate interventions addressing this network pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objectives: Despite the widespread acknowledgement of the importance of childhood oral health, little progress has been made in preventing early childhood caries. Limited information exists regarding specific daily-life and community-related factors that impede optimal oral hygiene, diet, care, and ultimately oral health for children. We sought to understand what parents of young children consider important and potentially modifiable factors and resources influencing their children’s oral health, within the contexts of the family and the community. Methods: This qualitative study employed Photovoice among 10 English-speaking parents of infants and toddlers who were clients of an urban WIC clinic in North Carolina. The primary research question was: “What do you consider as important behaviors, as well as family and community resources to prevent cavities among young children?” Five group sessions were conducted and they were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analyzed using qualitative research methodology. Inductive analyses were based on analytical summaries, double-coding, and summary matrices and were done using Atlas.ti.7.5.9 software. Findings: Good oral health was associated with avoidance of problems or restorations for the participants. Financial constraints affected healthy food and beverage choices, as well as access to oral health care. Time constraints and occasional frustration related to children’s oral hygiene emerged as additional barriers. Establishment of rules/routines and commitment to them was a successful strategy to promote their children’s oral health, as well as modeling of older siblings, cooperation among caregivers and peer support. Community programs and organizations, social hubs including playgrounds, grocery stores and social media emerged as promising avenues for gaining support and sharing resources. Conclusions: Low-income parents of young children are faced with daily life struggles that interfere with oral health and care. Financial constraints are pervasive, but parents identified several strategies involving home care and community agents that can be helpful. Future interventions aimed to improve children’s oral health must take into consideration the role of families and the communities in which they live. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are not currently approved or recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or various medical organizations; yet, they appear to play a substantial role in tobacco users’ cessation attempts. This study reports on a physician survey that measured beliefs, attitudes, and behavior related to e-cigarettes and smoking cessation. To our knowledge this is the first study to measure attitudes toward e-cigarettes among physicians treating adult smokers. Methods: Using a direct marketing company, a random sample of 787 North Carolina physicians were contacted in 2013 through email, with 413 opening the email and 128 responding (response rate = 31%). Physicians’ attitudes towards e-cigarettes were measured through a series of close-ended questions. Recommending e-cigarettes to patients served as the outcome variable for a logistic regression analysis. Results: Two thirds (67%) of the surveyed physicians indicated e-cigarettes are a helpful aid for smoking cessation, and 35% recommended them to their patients. Physicians were more likely to recommend e-cigarettes when their patients asked about them or when the physician believed e-cigarettes were safer than smoking standard cigarettes. Conclusions: Many North Carolina physicians are having conversations about e-cigarettes with their patients, and some are recommending them. Future FDA regulation of e-cigarettes may help provide evidence-based guidance to physicians about e-cigarettes and will help ensure that patients receive evidence-based recommendations about the safety and efficacy of e-cigarettes in tobacco cessation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]