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Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections. Author summary: The 2019 emergence of SARS-CoV-2 is a grim reminder of the threat animal-borne pathogens pose to human health. Even prior to SARS-CoV-2, the spillover of pathogens from animal reservoirs was a persistent problem, with pathogens such as Ebola, Nipah, and Lassa regularly but unpredictably causing outbreaks. Machine-learning models that anticipate when and where pathogen transmission from animals to humans is likely to occur would help guide surveillance efforts and preemptive countermeasures like information campaigns or vaccination programs. We develop a novel machine learning framework that uses datasets describing the distribution of a virus within its host and the range of its animal host, along with data on spatial patterns of human immunity, to infer rates of animal-to-human transmission across a region. By training the model on data from the animal host alone, our framework allows rigorous validation of spillover predictions using human data. We apply our framework to Lassa fever, a viral disease of West Africa that is spread to humans by rodents, and use the predictions to update estimates of Lassa virus infections in humans. Our results suggest that Nigeria is most at risk for the emergence of Lassa virus, and should be prioritized for outbreak-surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lassa virus is a significant burden on human health throughout its endemic region in West Africa, with most human infections the result of spillover from the primary rodent reservoir of the virus, the natal multimammate mouse, M. natalensis. Here we develop a Bayesian methodology for estimating epidemiological parameters of Lassa virus within its rodent reservoir and for generating probabilistic predictions for the efficacy of rodent vaccination programs. Our approach uses Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to integrate mechanistic mathematical models, remotely-sensed precipitation data, and Lassa virus surveillance data from rodent populations. Using simulated data, we show that our method accurately estimates key model parameters, even when surveillance data are available from only a relatively small number of points in space and time. Applying our method to previously published data from two villages in Guinea estimates the time-averaged R0 of Lassa virus to be 1.74 and 1.54 for rodent populations in the villages of Bantou and Tanganya, respectively. Using the posterior distribution for model parameters derived from these Guinean populations, we evaluate the likely efficacy of vaccination programs relying on distribution of vaccine-laced baits. Our results demonstrate that effective and durable reductions in the risk of Lassa virus spillover into the human population will require repeated distribution of large quantities of vaccine. Author summary: Lassa virus is a chronic source of illness throughout West Africa, and is considered to be a threat for widespread emergence. Because most human infections result from contact with infected rodents, interventions that reduce the number of rodents infected with Lassa virus represent promising opportunities for reducing the public health burden of this disease. Evaluating how well alternative interventions are likely to perform is complicated by our relatively poor understanding of viral epidemiology within the reservoir population. Here we develop a novel statistical approach that couples mathematical models and viral surveillance data from rodent populations to robustly estimate key epidemiological parameters. Applying our method to existing data from Guinea yields well-resolved parameter estimates and allows us to simulate a variety of rodent vaccination programs. Together, our results demonstrate that rodent vaccination alone is unlikely to be an effective tool for reducing the public health burden of Lassa fever within West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an important mosquito-borne veterinary and human pathogen that has caused large outbreaks of severe disease throughout Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Currently, no licensed vaccine or therapeutics exists to treat this potentially deadly disease. The explosive nature of RVFV outbreaks and the severe consequences of its accidental or intentional introduction into RVFV-free areas provide the impetus for the development of novel vaccine candidates for use in both livestock and humans. Rationally designed vaccine candidates using reverse genetics have been used to develop deletion mutants of two known RVFV virulence factors, the NSs and NSm genes. These recombinant viruses were demonstrated to be protective and immunogenic in rats, mice, and sheep, without producing clinical illness in these animals. Here, we expand upon those findings and evaluate the single deletion mutant (ΔNSs rRVFV) and double deletion mutant (ΔNSs-ΔNSm rRVFV) vaccine candidates in the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus), a non-human primate (NHP) model resembling severe human RVF disease. We demonstrate that both the ΔNSs and ΔNSs-ΔNSm rRVFV vaccine candidates were found to be safe and immunogenic in the current study. The vaccinated animals received a single dose of vaccine that led to the development of a robust antibody response. No vaccine-induced adverse reactions, signs of clinical illness or infectious virus were detected in the vaccinated marmosets. All vaccinated animals that were subsequently challenged with RVFV were protected against viremia and liver disease. In summary, our results provide the basis for further development of the ΔNSs and ΔNSs-ΔNSm rRVFV as safe and effective human RVFV vaccines for this significant public health threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Kyasanur Forest disease virus (KFDV) and Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever virus (AHFV) are closely related members of the Flavivirus genus and are important causes of human disease in India and the Arabian Peninsula, respectively. Despite high genetic similarity, the viruses have distinctly different host ranges and ecologies. Human cases of KFDV or AHFV develop a spectrum of disease syndromes ranging from liver pathology to neurologic disease. Case reports suggest KFDV is more commonly associated with hepatic and gastrointestinal manifestations whereas AHFV is more commonly associated with neurologic disease. Methodology/Principal Findings: Inoculation of three immunocompetent laboratory mouse strains revealed that KFDV was consistently more lethal than AHFV. In subsequent studies utilizing C57BL/6J mice, we demonstrated that KFDV infection was associated with higher viral loads and significantly higher mortality. KFDV-infected mice rapidly developed more severe disease than AHFV-infected mice, as evidenced by significant abnormalities on clinical chemistry panels and more severe pathology in the brain and gastrointestinal tract. Conclusions/Significance: Infections of C57BL/6J mice with KFDV or AHFV resulted in clinical disease syndromes that closely approximate the diseases seen in human cases. Despite high genetic similarity, there were clear differences in survival, viral kinetics, clinical chemistry data and histology. These results suggest that distinct mouse models for AHFV and KFDV are necessary in order to gain a better understanding of the unique pathogenesis of each virus, as well as to provide platforms for testing promising vaccines and therapeutics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previously, we investigated the role of the Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) virulence genes NSs and NSm in mosquitoes and demonstrated that deletion of NSm significantly reduced the infection, dissemination, and transmission rates of RVFV in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The specific aim of this study was to further characterize midgut infection and escape barriers of RVFV in Ae. aegypti infected with reverse genetics-generated wild type RVFV (rRVF-wt) or RVFV lacking the NSm virulence gene (rRVF-ΔNSm) by examining sagittal sections of infected mosquitoes for viral antigen at various time points post-infection. Methodology and Principal Findings: Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were fed an infectious blood meal containing either rRVF-wt or rRVF-ΔNSm. On days 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 14 post-infection, mosquitoes from each experimental group were fixed in 4% paraformaldehyde, paraffin-embedded, sectioned, and examined for RVFV antigen by immunofluorescence assay. Remaining mosquitoes at day 14 were assayed for infection, dissemination, and transmission. Disseminated infections were observed in mosquitoes as early as three days post infection for both virus strains. However, infection rates for rRVF-ΔNSm were statistically significantly less than for rRVF-wt. Posterior midgut infections in mosquitoes infected with rRVF-wt were extensive, whereas midgut infections of mosquitoes infected with rRVF-ΔNSm were confined to one or a few small foci. Conclusions/Significance: Deletion of NSm resulted in the reduced ability of RVFV to enter, replicate, and disseminate from the midgut epithelial cells. NSm appears to have a functional role in the vector competence of mosquitoes for RVFV at the level of the midgut barrier. Author Summary: Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne virus endemic to Africa. Outbreaks of RVFV have resulted in devastating morbidity and mortality in livestock and humans. A novel RVFV vaccine strain has been developed in which two virulence genes, NSs and NSm, have been deleted from the RVFV genome. Previously, we demonstrated that deletion of NSm also significantly reduced the ability of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to transmit RVFV. The objective of this study was to track the spread (dissemination) of wild type RVFV (rRVF-wt) and RVFV lacking the NSm virulence gene (rRVF-ΔNSm) through different tissues in the mosquito body over time by staining lengthwise slices of infected mosquitoes with fluorescent antibody specific to RVFV. We found that midgut infections in mosquitoes exposed to rRVF-wt were extensive, whereas midgut infections in mosquitoes infected with rRVF-ΔNSm were confined to only one or a few small foci. Our data provide supporting evidence that the NSm virulence gene has a functional role in mosquitoes by helping RVFV establish an infection in, and escape from, the midgut. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previously, we investigated the role of the Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) virulence genes NSs and NSm in mosquitoes and demonstrated that deletion of NSm significantly reduced the infection, dissemination, and transmission rates of RVFV in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The specific aim of this study was to further characterize midgut infection and escape barriers of RVFV in Ae. aegypti infected with reverse genetics-generated wild type RVFV (rRVF-wt) or RVFV lacking the NSm virulence gene (rRVF-ΔNSm) by examining sagittal sections of infected mosquitoes for viral antigen at various time points post-infection. Methodology and Principal Findings: Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were fed an infectious blood meal containing either rRVF-wt or rRVF-ΔNSm. On days 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 14 post-infection, mosquitoes from each experimental group were fixed in 4% paraformaldehyde, paraffin-embedded, sectioned, and examined for RVFV antigen by immunofluorescence assay. Remaining mosquitoes at day 14 were assayed for infection, dissemination, and transmission. Disseminated infections were observed in mosquitoes as early as three days post infection for both virus strains. However, infection rates for rRVF-ΔNSm were statistically significantly less than for rRVF-wt. Posterior midgut infections in mosquitoes infected with rRVF-wt were extensive, whereas midgut infections of mosquitoes infected with rRVF-ΔNSm were confined to one or a few small foci. Conclusions/Significance: Deletion of NSm resulted in the reduced ability of RVFV to enter, replicate, and disseminate from the midgut epithelial cells. NSm appears to have a functional role in the vector competence of mosquitoes for RVFV at the level of the midgut barrier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lujo virus (LUJV) is a novel member of the Arenaviridae family that was first identified in 2008 after an outbreak of severe hemorrhagic fever (HF). In what was a small but rapidly progressing outbreak, this previously unknown virus was transmitted from the critically ill index patient to 4 attending healthcare workers. Four persons died during this outbreak, for a total case fatality of 80% (4/5). The suspected rodent source of the initial exposure to LUJV remains a mystery. Because of the ease of transmission, high case fatality, and novel nature of LUJV, we sought to establish an animal model of LUJV HF. Initial attempts in mice failed, but infection of inbred strain 13/N guinea pigs resulted in lethal disease. A total of 41 adult strain 13/N guinea pigs were infected with either wild-type LUJV or a full-length recombinant LUJV. Results demonstrated that strain 13/N guinea pigs provide an excellent model of severe and lethal LUJV HF that closely resembles what is known of the human disease. All infected animals experienced consistent weight loss (3–5% per day) and clinical illness characterized by ocular discharge, ruffled fur, hunched posture, and lethargy. Uniform lethality occurred by 11–16 days post-infection. All animals developed disseminated LUJV infection in various organs (liver, spleen, lung, and kidney), and leukopenia, lymphopenia, thrombocytopenia, coagulopathy, and elevated transaminase levels. Serial euthanasia studies revealed a temporal pattern of virus dissemination and increasing severity of disease, primarily targeting the liver, spleen, lungs, and lower gastrointestinal tract. Establishing an animal LUJV model is an important first step towards understanding the high pathogenicity of LUJV and developing vaccines and antiviral therapeutic drugs for this highly transmissible and lethal emerging pathogen. Author Summary: The pathogenic arenaviruses are a diverse group of human pathogens capable of causing a wide range of human illness ranging from encephalitis to severe hemorrhagic fever throughout the New and Old World. In 2008, a previously unknown virus (now named Lujo virus) caused a high case fatality outbreak (80%) in southern Africa. Limited data available from these patients indicated that LUJV HF was characterized by thrombocytopenia, elevated liver transaminases, coagulopathy, viral antigen in multiple tissues, neurological symptoms in some cases, and eventual death. The source of exposure of the index patient remains unknown. Due to the unusually high lethality and rapid human to human spread, we sought to develop an animal model of Lujo hemorrhagic fever. We report here that after infection with Lujo virus, Strain 13/N guinea pigs develop a hemorrhagic fever syndrome similar to the disease observed in human patients. This animal model of severe Lujo hemorrhagic fever is a critical first step to increase our understanding of this highly pathogenic virus, and to develop anti-viral therapeutics or experimental vaccines for this new and unique threat to human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rift Valley fever virus is an arthropod-borne human and animal pathogen responsible for large outbreaks of acute and febrile illness throughout Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Reverse genetics technology has been used to develop deletion mutants of the virus that lack the NSs and/or NSm virulence genes and have been shown to be stable, immunogenic and protective against Rift Valley fever virus infection in animals. We assessed the potential for these deletion mutant viruses to infect and be transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which are the principal vectors for maintenance of the virus in nature and emergence of virus initiating disease outbreaks, and by Culex mosquitoes which are important amplification vectors. Methodology and Principal Findings: Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes were fed bloodmeals containing the deletion mutant viruses. Two weeks post-exposure mosquitoes were assayed for infection, dissemination, and transmission. In Ae. aegypti, infection and transmission rates of the NSs deletion virus were similar to wild type virus while dissemination rates were significantly reduced. Infection and dissemination rates for the NSm deletion virus were lower compared to wild type. Virus lacking both NSs and NSm failed to infect Ae. aegypti. In Cx. quinquefasciatus, infection rates for viruses lacking NSm or both NSs and NSm were lower than for wild type virus. Conclusions/Significance: In both species, deletion of NSm or both NSs and NSm reduced the infection and transmission potential of the virus. Deletion of both NSs and NSm resulted in the highest level of attenuation of virus replication. Deletion of NSm alone was sufficient to nearly abolish infection in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, indicating an important role for this protein. The double deleted viruses represent an ideal vaccine profile in terms of environmental containment due to lack of ability to efficiently infect and be transmitted by mosquitoes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever virus (AHFV) and Kyasanur forest disease virus (KFDV) cause significant human disease and mortality in Saudi Arabia and India, respectively. Despite their distinct geographic ranges, AHFV and KFDV share a remarkably high sequence identity. Given its emergence decades after KFDV, AHFV has since been considered a variant of KFDV and thought to have arisen from an introduction of KFDV to Saudi Arabia from India. To gain a better understanding of the evolutionary history of AHFV and KFDV, we analyzed the full length genomes of 16 AHFV and 3 KFDV isolates. Methodology/Principal Findings: Viral genomes were sequenced and compared to two AHFV sequences available in GenBank. Sequence analyses revealed higher genetic diversity within AHFVs isolated from ticks than human AHFV isolates. A Bayesian coalescent phylogenetic analysis demonstrated an ancient divergence of AHFV and KFDV of approximately 700 years ago. Conclusions/Significance: The high sequence diversity within tick populations and the presence of competent tick vectors in the surrounding regions, coupled with the recent identification of AHFV in Egypt, indicate possible viral range expansion or a larger geographic range than previously thought. The divergence of AHFV from KFDV nearly 700 years ago suggests other AHFV/KFDV-like viruses might exist in the regions between Saudi Arabia and India. Given the human morbidity and mortality associated with these viruses, these results emphasize the importance of more focused study of these significant public health threats. Author Summary: Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever (AHF) and Kyasanur Forest disease (KFD) viruses both cause serious and sometimes fatal human disease in their respective ranges, Saudi Arabia and India. AHFV was first identified in the mid-1990s and due to its strong genetic similarity to KFDV it has since been considered the result of a recent introduction of KFDV into Saudi Arabia. To gain a better understanding of the evolutionary history of AHFV and KFDV, we sequenced the full-length genomes of 3 KFDV and 16 AHFV. Sequence analyses show a greater genetic diversity within AHFV than previously thought, particularly within the tick population. The phylogeny constructed with these 19 full-length sequences and two AHFV sequences from GenBank indicates AHFV diverged from KFDV almost 700 years ago. Given the presence of competent tick vectors in the regions between and surrounding Saudi Arabia and India and the recent identification of AHFV in Egypt, these results suggest a broader geographic range of AHFV and KFDV, and raise the possibility of other AHFV/KFDV–like viruses circulating in these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever virus (AHFV) and Kyasanur forest disease virus (KFDV) cause significant human disease and mortality in Saudi Arabia and India, respectively. Despite their distinct geographic ranges, AHFV and KFDV share a remarkably high sequence identity. Given its emergence decades after KFDV, AHFV has since been considered a variant of KFDV and thought to have arisen from an introduction of KFDV to Saudi Arabia from India. To gain a better understanding of the evolutionary history of AHFV and KFDV, we analyzed the full length genomes of 16 AHFV and 3 KFDV isolates. Methodology/Principal Findings: Viral genomes were sequenced and compared to two AHFV sequences available in GenBank. Sequence analyses revealed higher genetic diversity within AHFVs isolated from ticks than human AHFV isolates. A Bayesian coalescent phylogenetic analysis demonstrated an ancient divergence of AHFV and KFDV of approximately 700 years ago. Conclusions/Significance: The high sequence diversity within tick populations and the presence of competent tick vectors in the surrounding regions, coupled with the recent identification of AHFV in Egypt, indicate possible viral range expansion or a larger geographic range than previously thought. The divergence of AHFV from KFDV nearly 700 years ago suggests other AHFV/KFDV-like viruses might exist in the regions between Saudi Arabia and India. Given the human morbidity and mortality associated with these viruses, these results emphasize the importance of more focused study of these significant public health threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marburg and Ebola viruses can cause large hemorrhagic fever (HF) outbreaks with high case fatality (80-90%) in human and great apes. Identification of the natural reservoir of these viruses is one of the most important topics in this field and a fundamental key to understanding their natural history. Despite the discovery of this virus family almost 40 years ago, the search for the natural reservoir of these lethal pathogens remains an enigma despite numerous ecological studies. Here, we report the discovery of Marburg virus in a common species of fruit bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus) in Gabon as shown by finding virus-specific RNA and IgG antibody in individual bats. These Marburg virus positive bats represent the first naturally infected non-primate animals identified. Furthermore, this is the first report of Marburg virus being present in this area of Africa, thus extending the known range of the virus. These data imply that more areas are at risk for MHF outbreaks than previously realized and correspond well with a recently published report in which three species of fruit bats were demonstrated to be likely reservoirs for Ebola virus.