Search

Background Reducing disease can maintain personal individual income and improve societal economic productivity. However, estimates of income loss for multiple diseases simultaneously with thorough adjustment for confounding are lacking, to our knowledge. We estimate individual-level income loss for 40 conditions simultaneously by phase of diagnosis, and the total income loss at the population level (a function of how common the disease is and the individual-level income loss if one has the disease). Methods and findings We used linked health tax data for New Zealand as a high-income country case study, from 2006 to 2007 to 2015 to 2016 for 25- to 64-year-olds (22.5 million person-years). Fixed effects regression was used to estimate within-individual income loss by disease, and cause-deletion methods to estimate economic productivity loss at the population level. Income loss in the year of diagnosis was highest for dementia for both men (US$8,882; 95% CI $6,709 to $11,056) and women ($7,103; $5,499 to $8,707). Mental illness also had high income losses in the year of diagnosis (average of about $5,300 per year for males and $4,100 per year for females, for 4 subcategories of: depression and anxiety; alcohol related; schizophrenia; and other). Similar patterns were evident for prevalent years of diagnosis. For the last year of life, cancers tended to have the highest income losses, (e.g., colorectal cancer males: $17,786, 95% CI $15,555 to $20,018; females: $14,192, $12,357 to $16,026). The combined annual income loss from all diseases among 25- to 64-year-olds was US$2.72 billion or 4.3% of total income. Diseases contributing more than 4% of total disease-related income loss were mental illness (30.0%), cardiovascular disease (15.6%), musculoskeletal (13.7%), endocrine (8.9%), gastrointestinal (7.4%), neurological (6.5%), and cancer (4.5%). The limitations of this study include residual biases that may overestimate the effect of disease on income loss, such as unmeasured time-varying confounding (e.g., divorce leading to both depression and income loss) and reverse causation (e.g., income loss leading to depression). Conversely, there may also be offsetting underestimation biases, such as income loss in the prodromal phase before diagnosis that is misclassified to 'healthy' person time. Conclusions In this longitudinal study, we found that income loss varies considerably by disease. Nevertheless, mental illness, cardiovascular, and musculoskeletal diseases stand out as likely major causes of economic productivity loss, suggesting that they should be prioritised in prevention programmes., Author(s): Tony Blakely 1,2,*, Finn Sigglekow 2, Muhammad Irfan 2, Anja Mizdrak 2, Joseph Dieleman 3, Laxman Bablani 1, Philip Clarke 4, Nick Wilson 2 Introduction Health shocks adversely affect [...]

Background Front-of-pack nutrition labelling (FoPL) of packaged foods can promote healthier diets. Australia and New Zealand (NZ) adopted the voluntary Health Star Rating (HSR) scheme in 2014. We studied the impact of voluntary adoption of HSR on food reformulation relative to unlabelled foods and examined differential impacts for more-versus-less healthy foods. Methods and findings Annual nutrition information panel data were collected for nonseasonal packaged foods sold in major supermarkets in Auckland from 2013 to 2019 and in Sydney from 2014 to 2018. The analysis sample covered 58,905 unique products over 14 major food groups. We used a difference-in-differences design to estimate reformulation associated with HSR adoption. Healthier products adopted HSR more than unhealthy products: >35% of products that achieved 4 or more stars displayed the label compared to A limitation of our study is that results are not sales weighted. Thus, it is not able to assess changes in overall nutrient consumption that occur because of HSR-caused reformulation. Also, participation into labelling and reformulation is jointly determined by producers in this observational study, impacting its generalisability to settings with mandatory labelling. Conclusions In this study, we observed that reformulation changes following voluntary HSR labelling are small, but greater for initially unhealthy products. Initially unhealthy foods were, however, less likely to adopt HSR. Our results, therefore, suggest that mandatory labelling has the greatest potential for improving the healthiness of packaged foods., Author(s): Laxman Bablani 1,*, Cliona Ni Mhurchu 2,3,4, Bruce Neal 3,4, Christopher L. Skeels 5, Kevin E. Staub 5, Tony Blakely 1 Introduction Population-based approaches are required to combat unhealthy [...]

Background There is little systematic assessment of how total health expenditure is distributed across diseases and comorbidities. The objective of this study was to use statistical methods to disaggregate all publicly funded health expenditure by disease and comorbidities in order to answer three research questions: (1) What is health expenditure by disease phase for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in New Zealand? (2) Is the cost of having two NCDs more or less than that expected given the independent costs of each NCD? (3) How is total health spending disaggregated by NCDs across age and by sex? Methods and findings We used linked data for all adult New Zealanders for publicly funded events, including hospitalisation, outpatient, pharmaceutical, laboratory testing, and primary care from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2014. These data include 18.9 million person-years and $26.4 billion in spending (US$ 2016). We used case definition algorithms to identify if a person had any of six NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease [CVD], diabetes, musculoskeletal, neurological, and a chronic lung/liver/kidney [LLK] disease). Indicator variables were used to identify the presence of any of the 15 possible comorbidity pairings of these six NCDs. Regression was used to estimate excess annual health expenditure per person. Cause deletion methods were used to estimate total population expenditure by disease. A majority (59%) of health expenditure was attributable to NCDs. Expenditure due to diseases was generally highest in the year of diagnosis and year of death. A person having two diseases simultaneously generally had greater health expenditure than the expected sum of having the diseases separately, for all 15 comorbidity pairs except the CVD-cancer pair. For example, a 60-64-year-old female with none of the six NCDs had $633 per annum expenditure. If she had both CVD and chronic LLK, additional expenditure for CVD separately was $6,443/$839/$9,225 for the first year of diagnosis/prevalent years/last year of life if dying of CVD; additional expenditure for chronic LLK separately was $6,443/$1,291/$9,051; and the additional comorbidity expenditure of having both CVD and LLK was $2,456 (95% confidence interval [CI] $2,238-$2,674). The pattern was similar for males (e.g., additional comorbidity expenditure for a 60-64-year-old male with CVD and chronic LLK was $2,498 [95% CI $2,264-$2,632]). In addition to this, the excess comorbidity costs for a person with two diseases was greater at younger ages, e.g., excess expenditure for 45-49-year-old males with CVD and chronic LLK was 10 times higher than for 75-79-year-old males and six times higher for females. At the population level, 23.8% of total health expenditure was attributable to higher costs of having one of the 15 comorbidity pairs over and above the six NCDs separately; of the remaining expenditure, CVD accounted for 18.7%, followed by musculoskeletal (16.2%), neurological (14.4%), cancer (14.1%), chronic LLK disease (7.4%), and diabetes (5.5%). Major limitations included incomplete linkage to all costed events (although these were largely non-NCD events) and missing private expenditure. Conclusions The costs of having two NCDs simultaneously is typically superadditive, and more so for younger adults. Neurological and musculoskeletal diseases contributed the largest health system costs, in accord with burden of disease studies finding that they contribute large morbidity. Just as burden of disease methodology has advanced the understanding of disease burden, there is a need to create disease-based costing studies that facilitate the disaggregation of health budgets at a national level., Author(s): Tony Blakely 1,2,*, Giorgi Kvizhinadze 1, June Atkinson 1, Joseph Dieleman 3, Philip Clarke 2,4 Introduction The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) has achieved the vision of a coherent [...]

Background An increasing number of countries are implementing taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks to address the growing burden of dietary-related disease, but the cost-effectiveness of combining taxes on unhealthy foods and subsidies on healthy foods is not well understood. Methods and Findings Using a population model of dietary-related diseases and health care costs and food price elasticities, we simulated the effect of taxes on saturated fat, salt, sugar, and sugar-sweetened beverages and a subsidy on fruits and vegetables, over the lifetime of the Australian population. The sizes of the taxes and subsidy were set such that, when combined as a package, there would be a negligible effect on average weekly expenditure on food ( Conclusions With potentially large health benefits for the Australian population and large benefits in reducing health sector spending on the treatment of non-communicable diseases, the formulation of a tax and subsidy package should be given a more prominent role in Australia's public health nutrition strategy., Author(s): Linda J. Cobiac 1,*, King Tam 2, Lennert Veerman 2, Tony Blakely 3 Introduction The relationship between non-communicable diseases and consumption of unhealthy foods and drinks is well known, [...]

Background The anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) monoclonal antibody trastuzumab improves outcomes in patients with node-positive HER2+ early breast cancer. Given trastuzumab's high cost, we aimed to estimate its cost-effectiveness by heterogeneity in age and estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status, which has previously been unexplored, to assist prioritisation. Methods and Findings A cost-utility analysis was performed using a Markov macro-simulation model, with a lifetime horizon, comparing a 12-mo regimen of trastuzumab with chemotherapy alone using the latest (2014) effectiveness measures from landmark randomised trials. A New Zealand (NZ) health system perspective was adopted, employing high-quality national administrative data. Incremental quality-adjusted life-years for trastuzumab versus chemotherapy alone are two times higher (2.33 times for the age group 50-54 y; 95% CI 2.29-2.37) for the worst prognosis (ER-/PR-) subtype compared to the best prognosis (ER+/PR+) subtype, causing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the former to be less than half those of the latter for the age groups from 25-29 to 90-94 y (0.44 times for the age group 50-54 y; 95% CI 0.43-0.45). If we were to strictly apply an arbitrary cost-effectiveness threshold equal to the NZ gross domestic product per capita (2011 purchasing power parity [PPP]-adjusted: US$30,300; [euro]23,700; £21,200), our study suggests that trastuzumab (2011 PPP-adjusted US$45,400/[euro]35,900/£21,900 for 1 y at formulary prices) may not be cost-effective for ER+ (which are 61% of all) node-positive HER2+ early breast cancer patients but cost-effective for ER-/PR- subtypes (37% of all cases) to age 69 y. Market entry of trastuzumab biosimilars will likely reduce the ICER to below this threshold for premenopausal ER+/PR- cancer but not for ER+/PR+ cancer. Sensitivity analysis using the best-case effectiveness measure for ER+ cancer had the same result. A key limitation was a lack of treatment-effect data by hormone receptor subtype. Heterogeneity was restricted to age and hormone receptor status; tumour size/grade heterogeneity could be explored in future work. Conclusions This study highlights how cost-effectiveness can vary greatly by heterogeneity in age and hormone receptor subtype. Resource allocation and licensing of subsidised therapies such as trastuzumab should consider demographic and clinical heterogeneity; there is currently a profound disconnect between how funding decisions are made (largely agnostic to heterogeneity) and the principles of personalised medicine., Author(s): William Leung 1,2,*, Giorgi Kvizhinadze 1, Nisha Nair 1, Tony Blakely 1 Introduction Between 12% and 25% of breast cancer cases are human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) [...]

Diet, Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, and Disease Burden Diet is the leading cause of health loss globally according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010, contributing 10% of all health loss [...]

Background: In many countries smoking rates have declined and obesity rates have increased, and social inequalities in each have varied over time. At the same time, mortality has declined in most high-income countries, but gaps by educational qualification persist—at least partially due to differential smoking and obesity distributions. This study uses a compass typology to simultaneously examine the magnitude and trends in educational inequalities across multiple countries in: a) smoking and obesity; b) smoking-related mortality and c) cause-specific mortality. Methods: Smoking prevalence, obesity prevalence and cause-specific mortality rates (35–79 year olds by sex) in nine European countries and New Zealand were sourced from between 1980 and 2010. We calculated relative and absolute inequalities in prevalence and mortality (relative and slope indices of inequality, respectively RII, SII) by highest educational qualification. Countries were then plotted on a compass typology which simultaneously examines trends in the population average rates or odds on the x-axis, RII on the Y-axis, and contour lines depicting SII. Findings: Smoking and obesity. Smoking prevalence in men decreased over time but relative inequalities increased. For women there were fewer declines in smoking prevalence and relative inequalities tended to increase. Obesity prevalence in men and women increased over time with a mixed picture of increasing absolute and sometimes relative inequalities. Absolute inequalities in obesity increased for men and women in Czech Republic, France, New Zealand, Norway, for women in Austria and Lithuania, and for men in Finland. Cause-specific mortality. Average rates of smoking-related mortality were generally stable or increasing for women, accompanied by increasing relative inequalities. For men, average rates were stable or decreasing, but relative inequalities increased over time. Cardiovascular disease, cancer, and external injury rates generally decreased over time, and relative inequalities increased. In Eastern European countries mortality started declining later compared to other countries, however it remained at higher levels; and absolute inequalities in mortality increased whereas they were more stable elsewhere. Conclusions: Tobacco control remains vital for addressing social inequalities in health by education, and focus on the least educated is required to address increasing relative inequalities. Increasing obesity in all countries and increasing absolute obesity inequalities in several countries is concerning for future potential health impacts. Obesity prevention may be increasingly important for addressing health inequalities in some settings. The compass typology was useful to compare trends in inequalities because it simultaneously tracks changes in rates/odds, and absolute and relative inequality measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Food taxes and subsidies are one intervention to address poor diets. Price elasticity (PE) matrices are commonly used to model the change in food purchasing. Usually a PE matrix is generated in one setting then applied to another setting with differing starting consumptions and prices of foods. This violates econometric assumptions resulting in likely mis-estimation of total food consumption. In this paper we demonstrate this problem, canvass possible options for rescaling all consumption after applying a PE matrix, and illustrate the use of a total food expenditure elasticity (TFEe; the expenditure elasticity for all food combined given the policy-induced change in the total price of food). We use case studies of: NZ$2 per 100g saturated fat (SAFA) tax, NZ$0.4 per 100g sugar tax, and a 20% fruit and vegetable (F&V) subsidy. Methods: We estimated changes in food purchasing using a NZ PE matrix applied conventionally, and then with TFEe adjustment. Impacts were quantified for pre- to post-policy changes in total food expenditure and health adjusted life years (HALYs) for the total NZ population alive in 2011 over the rest of their lifetime using a multistate lifetable model. Results: Two NZ studies gave TFEe's of 0.68 and 0.83, with international estimates ranging from 0.46 to 0.90 (except a UK outlier of 0.04). Without TFEe adjustment, total food expenditure decreased with the tax policies and increased with the F&V subsidy–implausible directions of shift given economic theory and the external TFEe estimates. After TFEe adjustment, HALY gains reduced by a third to a half for the two taxes and reversed from an apparent health loss to a health gain for the F&V subsidy. With TFEe adjustment, HALY gains (in 1000's) were: 1,805 (95% uncertainty interval 1,337 to 2,340) for the SAFA tax; 1,671 (1,220 to 2,269) for the sugar tax; and 953 (453 to 1,308) for the F&V subsidy. Conclusions: If PE matrices are applied in settings beyond where they were derived, additional scaling is likely required. We suggest that the TFEe is a useful scalar, but we also encourage other researchers to examine this issue and propose alternative options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite overall improvements in cancer survival due to earlier diagnosis and better treatment, socio-economically disadvantaged people have lower cancer survival than more advantaged people. We aimed to examine differences in cancer survival by area-level socio-economic disadvantage in Victoria, Australia and assess whether these inequalities varied by year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, time since diagnosis and sex. Cases diagnosed with a first primary cancer in 2001–2015 were identified using the Victorian Cancer Registry and followed to the end of 2016. Five-year net survival and the excess risk of death due to a cancer diagnosis were estimated. People living in more disadvantaged areas had lower five-year survival than residents of less disadvantaged regions for 21 of 29 cancer types: head and neck, oesophagus, stomach, colorectum, anus/anal canal, liver, gallbladder/biliary tract, pancreas, lung, melanoma, connective/soft tissue, female breast, ovary, prostate, kidney, bladder, brain and central nervous system, unknown primary, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, multiple myeloma and leukemia. The observed lower survival in more deprived regions persisted over time, except head and neck cancer, for which the gap in survival has widened. Socio-economic inequalities in survival decreased with increasing age at diagnosis for cancers of connective/soft tissue, bladder and unknown primary. For colorectal cancer, the observed survival disadvantage in lower socio-economic regions was greater for men than for women, while for brain and central nervous system tumours, it was larger for women. Cancer survival is generally lower for residents of more socio-economically disadvantaged areas. Identifying the underlying reasons for these inequalities is important and may help to identify effective interventions to increase survival for underprivileged cancer patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Food pricing strategies have been proposed to encourage healthy eating habits, which may in turn help stem global increases in non-communicable diseases. This systematic review of simulation studies investigates the estimated association between food pricing strategies and changes in food purchases or intakes (consumption) (objective 1); Health and disease outcomes (objective 2), and whether there are any differences in these outcomes by socio-economic group (objective 3). Methods and Findings: Electronic databases, Internet search engines, and bibliographies of included studies were searched for articles published in English between 1 January 1990 and 24 October 2011 for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Where [greater than or equal to] 3 studies examined the same pricing strategy and consumption (purchases or intake) or health outcome, results were pooled, and a mean own-price elasticity (own-PE) estimated (the own-PE represents the change in demand with a 1% change in price of that good). Objective 1: pooled estimates were possible for the following: (1) taxes on carbonated soft drinks: own-PE (n = 4 studies), -0.93 (range, -0.06, -2.43), and a modelled -0.02% (-0.01%, -0.04%) reduction in energy (calorie) intake for each 1% price increase (n = 3 studies);(2) taxes on saturated fat: -0.02% (-0.01%, -0.04%) reduction in energy intake from saturated fat per 1% price increase (n = 5 studies); and (3) subsidies on fruits and vegetables: own-PE (n = 3 studies), -0.35 (-0.21, -0.77). Objectives 2 and 3: variability of food pricing strategies and outcomes prevented pooled analyses, although higher quality studies suggested unintended compensatory purchasing that could result in overall effects being counter to health. Eleven of 14 studies evaluating lower socio-economic groups estimated that food pricing strategies would be associated with pro-health outcomes. Food pricing strategies also have the potential to reduce disparities. Conclusions: Based on modelling studies, taxes on carbonated drinks and saturated fat and subsidies on fruits and vegetables would be associated with beneficial dietary change, with the potential for improved health. Additional research into possible compensatory purchasing and population health outcomes is needed. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary., Introduction Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancers, and chronic respiratory disease are the leading preventable causes of global morbidity and mortality [1]. Furthermore, these diseases place substantial [...]

Background: Physical inactivity contributes substantively to disease burden, especially in highly car dependent countries such as New Zealand (NZ). We aimed to quantify the future health gain, health-sector cost-savings, and change in greenhouse gas emissions that could be achieved by switching short vehicle trips to walking and cycling in New Zealand. Methods: We used unit-level survey data to estimate changes in physical activity, distance travelled by mode, and air pollution for: (a) switching car trips under 1km to walking and (b) switching car trips under 5km to a mix of walking and cycling. We modelled uptake levels of 25%, 50%, and 100%, and assumed changes in transport behaviour were permanent. We then used multi-state life table modelling to quantify health impacts as quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and changes in health system costs over the rest of the life course of the NZ population alive in 2011 (n = 4.4 million), with 3% discounting. Findings: The modelled scenarios resulted in health gains between 1.61 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.35 to 1.89) and 25.43 (UI 20.20 to 30.58) QALYs/1000 people, with total QALYs up to 112,020 (UI 88,969 to 134,725) over the remaining lifespan. Healthcare cost savings ranged between NZ$127million (UI $101m to 157m) and NZ$2.1billion (UI $1.6b to 2.6b). Greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by up to 194kgCO2e/year, though changes in emissions were not significant under the walking scenario. Conclusions: Substantial health gains and healthcare cost savings could be achieved by switching short car trips to walking and cycling. Implementing infrastructural improvements and interventions to encourage walking and cycling is likely to be a cost-effective way to improve population health, and may also reduce greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is some evidence that home safety assessment and modification (HSAM) is effective in reducing falls in older people. But there are various knowledge gaps, including around cost-effectiveness and also the impacts at a health district-level. Methods and findings: A previously established Markov macro-simulation model built for the whole New Zealand (NZ) population (Pega et al 2016, Injury Prevention) was enhanced and adapted to a health district level. This district was Counties Manukau District Health Board, which hosts 42,000 people aged 65+ years. A health system perspective was taken and a discount rate of 3% was used for both health gain and costs. Intervention effectiveness estimates came from a systematic review, and NZ-specific intervention costs were extracted from a randomized controlled trial. In the 65+ age-group in this health district, the HSAM program was estimated to achieve health gains of 2800 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 547 to 5280). The net health system cost was estimated at NZ$8.44 million (95% UI: $663 to $14.3 million). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated at NZ$5480 suggesting HSAM is cost-effective (95%UI: cost saving to NZ$15,300 [equivalent to US$10,300]). Targeting HSAM only to people age 65+ or 75+ with previous injurious falls was estimated to be particularly cost-effective (ICERs: $700 and $832, respectively) with the latter intervention being cost-saving. There was no evidence for differential cost-effectiveness by sex or by ethnicity: Māori (Indigenous population) vs non-Māori. Conclusions: This modeling study suggests that a HSAM program could produce considerable health gain and be cost-effective for older people at a health district level. Nevertheless, comparisons may be desirable with other falls prevention interventions such as group exercise programs, which also provide social contact and may prevent various chronic diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001856.]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 [“business as usual,” BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. Methods and Findings: We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000–419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US$2,550 million (95% UI: US$1,480 to US$4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Māori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Māori and non-Māori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45–64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. Conclusions: Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD burden and health inequalities, they will also need to complement tobacco tax increases with additional tobacco control interventions focused on cessation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. Methods: A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. Findings: A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Conclusions: Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Given the high importance of dietary sodium (salt) as a global disease risk factor, our objective was to compare the impact of eight sodium reduction interventions, including feasible and more theoretical ones, to assist prioritisation. Methods: Epidemiological modelling and cost-utility analysis were performed using a Markov macro-simulation model. The setting was New Zealand (NZ) (2.3 million citizens, aged 35+ years) which has detailed individual-level administrative cost data. Results: Of the most feasible interventions, the largest health gains were from (in descending order): (i) mandatory 25% reduction in sodium levels in all processed foods; (ii) the package of interventions performed in the United Kingdom (UK); (iii) mandatory 25% reduction in sodium levels in bread, processed meats and sauces; (iv) media campaign (as per a previous UK one); (v) voluntary food labelling as currently used in NZ; (vi) dietary counselling as currently used in NZ. Even larger health gains came from the more theoretical options of a “sinking lid” on the amount of food salt released to the national market to achieve an average adult intake of 2300 mg sodium/day (211,000 QALYs gained, 95% uncertainty interval: 170,000 – 255,000), and from a salt tax. All the interventions produced net cost savings (except counselling – albeit still cost-effective). Cost savings were especially large with the sinking lid (NZ$ 1.1 billion, US$ 0.7 billion). Also the salt tax would raise revenue (up to NZ$ 452 million/year). Health gain per person was greater for Māori (indigenous population) men and women compared to non-Māori. Conclusions: This study substantially expands on the range of previously modelled salt reduction interventions and suggests that some of these might achieve major health gains and major cost savings (particularly the regulatory interventions). They could also reduce ethnic inequalities in health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper was to see whether all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates vary between Asian ethnic subgroups, and whether overseas born Asian subgroup mortality rate ratios varied by nativity and duration of residence. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to allow for sparse data in the analysis of linked census-mortality data for 25–75 year old New Zealanders. We found directly standardised posterior all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were highest for the Indian ethnic group, significantly so when compared with those of Chinese ethnicity. In contrast, cancer mortality rates were lowest for ethnic Indians. Asian overseas born subgroups have about 70% of the mortality rate of their New Zealand born Asian counterparts, a result that showed little variation by Asian subgroup or cause of death. Within the overseas born population, all-cause mortality rates for migrants living 0–9 years in New Zealand were about 60% of the mortality rate of those living more than 25 years in New Zealand regardless of ethnicity. The corresponding figure for cardiovascular mortality rates was 50%. However, while Chinese cancer mortality rates increased with duration of residence, Indian and Other Asian cancer mortality rates did not. Future research on the mechanisms of worsening of health with increased time spent in the host country is required to improve the understanding of the process, and would assist the policy-makers and health planners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Targeted food pricing policies may improve population diets. To assess their effects on inequalities, it is important to determine responsiveness to price changes across income levels and ethnic groups. Objective: Our goal was to estimate price elasticity (PE) values for major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, by income and ethnicity. PE values represent percentage change in demand associated with 1% change in price of that good (own-PE) or another good (cross-PE). Design: We used food expenditure data from national household economic surveys in 2007/08 and 2009/10 and Food Price Index data from 2007 and 2010. Adopting an Almost Ideal Demand System approach, own-PE and cross-PE estimates were derived for 24 food categories, household income quintiles, and two ethnic groups (Māori and non-Māori). Results: Own-PE estimates (with two exceptions) ranged from −0.44 to −1.78. Cross-PE estimates were generally small; only 31% of absolute values were greater than 0.10. Excluding the outlier ‘energy drinks’, nine of 23 food groups had significantly stronger own-PEs for the lowest versus highest income quintiles (average regression-based difference across food groups −0.30 (95% CI −0.62 to 0.02)). Six own-PEs were significantly stronger among Māori; the average difference for Māori: non-Māori across food groups was −0.26 (95% CI −0.52 to 0.00). Conclusions: Food pricing policies have potential to improve population diets. The greater sensitivity of low-income households and Māori to price changes suggests the beneficial effects of such policies on health would be greatest for these groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Global health challenges include non-communicable disease burdens, ensuring food security in the context of rising food prices, and environmental constraints around food production, e.g., greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions. We therefore aimed to consider optimized solutions to the mix of food items in daily diets for a developed country population: New Zealand (NZ). Methods: We conducted scenario development and linear programming to model 16 diets (some with uncertainty). Data inputs included nutrients in foods, food prices, food wastage and food-specific GHG emissions. Findings: This study identified daily dietary patterns that met key nutrient requirements for as little as a median of NZ$ 3.17 per day (US$ 2.41/d) (95% simulation interval [SI] = NZ$ 2.86 to 3.50/d). Diets that included “more familiar meals” for New Zealanders, increased the cost. The optimized diets also had low GHG emission profiles compared with the estimate for the ‘typical NZ diet’ e.g., 1.62 kg CO2e/d for one scenario (95%SI = 1.39 to 1.85 kg CO2e) compared with 10.1 kg CO2e/d, respectively. All of the optimized low-cost and low-GHG dietary patterns had likely health advantages over the current NZ dietary pattern, i.e., lower cardiovascular disease and cancer risk. Conclusions: We identified optimal foods and dietary patterns that would lower the risk of non-communicable diseases at low cost and with low greenhouse gas emission profiles. These results could help guide central and local government decisions around which foods to focus policies on. That is which foods are most suitable for: food taxes (additions and exemptions); healthy food vouchers and subsidies; and for increased use by public institutions involved in food preparation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A systematic review of simulation studies conducted by Helen Eyles and colleagues examines the association between food pricing strategies and food consumption and health and disease outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]