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Background The case fatality ratio (CFR) of Ebola virus disease (EVD) can vary over time and space for reasons that are not fully understood. This makes it difficult to define the baseline CFRs needed to evaluate treatments in the absence of randomized controls. Here, we investigate whether viremia in EVD patients may be used to evaluate baseline EVD CFRs. Methods and Findings We analyzed the laboratory and epidemiological records of patients with EVD confirmed by reverse transcription PCR hospitalized in the Conakry area, Guinea, between 1 March 2014 and 28 February 2015. We used viremia and other variables to model the CFR. Data for 699 EVD patients were analyzed. In the week following symptom onset, mean viremia remained stable, and the CFR increased with viremia, V, from 21% (95% CI 16%-27%) for low viremia (V < [10.sup.4.4] copies/ml) to 53% (95% CI 44%-61%) for intermediate viremia ([10.sup.4.4] ≤ V < [10.sup.5.2] copies/ml) and 81% (95% CI 75%-87%) for high viremia (V ≥ [10.sup.5.2] copies/ml). Compared to adults (15-44 y old [y.o.]), the CFR was larger in young children (0-4 y.o.) (odds ratio [OR]: 2.44; 95% C11.02-5.86) and older adults (≥ 45 y.o.) (OR: 2.84; 95% CI 1.81-4.46) but lower in children (5-14 y.o.) (OR: 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). An order of magnitude increase in mean viremia in cases after July 2014 compared to those before coincided with a 14% increase in the CFR. Our findings come from a large hospital-based study in Conakry and may not be generalizable to settings with different case profiles, such as with individuals who never sought care. Conclusions Viremia in EVD patients was a strong predictor of death that partly explained variations in CFR in the study population. This study provides baseline CFRs by viremia group, which allow appropriate adjustment when estimating efficacy in treatment studies. In randomized controlled trials, stratifying analysis on viremia groups could reduce sample size requirements by 25%. We hypothesize that monitoring the viremia of hospitalized patients may inform the ability of surveillance systems to detect EVD patients from the different severity strata., Introduction An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) of unprecedented magnitude has been ongoing in West Africa since December 2013 [1]. As of 23 September 2015,28,295 confirmed, probable, and suspected [...]

Background: The transmembrane receptor tyrosine kinase HER2 is overexpressed in approximately 15% of breast tumors and correlates with poor clinical prognosis. Several treatments that target HER2 are approved for treatment of HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer. The serum biomarkers most widely used to monitor anti-HER2 therapies in patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer currently are CA15.3 and CEA. Nevertheless, their clinical utility in patients with breast cancer remains a subject of discussion and controversy; thus, additional markers may prove useful in monitoring the therapeutic responses of these patients. The extracellular domain of HER2 can be shed by proteolytic cleavage into the circulation and this shed form, sHER2, is reported to be augmented during metastasis of HER2-positive breast tumors. Here, we studied the clinical usefulness of sHER2, CA15.3, and CEA for monitoring treatment for breast cancer. Methods: We measured prospectively pretreatment and post-treatment serum levels (day 1, 30, 60 and 90) of these three biomarkers in 47 HER2-positive, metastatic breast cancer patients treated with trastuzumab in combination with paclitaxel. Evaluation of the disease was performed according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumor (RECIST) at day 90. Results: Patients with progressive disease at day 90 had smaller relative changes between day 1 and day 30 than those with complete, partial or stable responses at day 90: -9% versus -38% for sHER2 (P = 0.02), +23% versus -17% for CA15.3 (P = 0.005) and +29% versus -26% for CEA (P = 0.02). Patients with progressive disease at day 90 were less likely than the other patients to have a relative decrease of > 20% in their biomarker levels at day 30: 6% vs 33% for sHER2 (P = 0.03), 0% vs 27% for CA15.3 (P = 0.03), 4% vs 29% for CEA (P = 0.04). No patient with progressive disease at day 90 had > 20% reduction of the average combined biomarker levels at day 30 whereas 63% of the other patients had (P = 0.003). Moreover, when we analyzed a > 10% reduction of the average biomarker levels no patient with progressive disease at day 90 had a decrease > 10% at day 30 whereas 78% of other patients had (P<0.001, Se = 100%, Sp = 78%). Conclusion: We show that regular measurement of sHER2, CA15.3, and CEA levels is useful for predicting the therapeutic response and for monitoring HER2-targeted therapy in patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer. The average decrease of the three biomarkers with a threshold of > 10% appears to be the best parameter to distinguish patients who go on to have progressive disease from those who will have a complete, partial or stable response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In France, indications for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention are based on individual-level risk factors for HIV infection. However, the risk of HIV infection may also depend on characteristics of sexual partnerships. Here we study how place-based selection of partners change transmission and the overall efficiency of PrEP. Methods: We used the PREVAGAY survey of sexual behavior and HIV serostatus in men who have sex with men (MSM) in a Parisian district to look for associations between sexual network characteristics and HIV infection. We then simulated HIV transmission in a high-risk MSM population. We used information about venues visited to meet casual sexual partners (clubs, backrooms or saunas) to define sexual networks. We then simulated HIV transmission in these networks and assessed the impact of PrEP in this population. Results: In the PREVAGAY study, we found that HIV serostatus changed with the type of venues visited, in addition to other individual risk factors. In simulations, we found similar differences in HIV incidence when the choice of venues visited was not random. The use of PrEP allowed reducing incidence, irrespective of the venues visited by PrEP users. However, with the same amount of PrEP, the number of infections adverted could almost double depending on network structure and venues visited by PrEP users. Conclusion: This study shows that characteristics of the sexual network structure can strongly impact the effectiveness of PrEP interventions. These should be considered further to refine individual risk assessment and maximize the effect of individual-based prevention policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Aspergillus colonisation is frequently reported after lung transplantation. The question of whether aspergillus colonisation is related to the hospital environment is crucial to prevention. Method: To elucidate this question, a prospective study of aspergillus colonisation after lung transplantation, along with a mycological survey of the patient environment, was performed. Results: Forty-four consecutive patients were included from the day of lung transplantation and then examined weekly for aspergillus colonisation until hospital discharge. Environmental fungal contamination of each patient was followed weekly via air and surface sampling. Twelve patients (27%) had transient aspergillus colonisation, occurring 1–13 weeks after lung transplantation, without associated manifestation of aspergillosis. Responsible Aspergillus species were A. fumigatus (6), A. niger (3), A. sydowii (1), A. calidoustus (1) and Aspergillus sp. (1). In the environment, contamination by Penicillium and Aspergillus was predominant. Multivariate analysis showed a significant association between occurrence of aspergillus colonisation and fungal contamination of the patient’s room, either by Aspergillus spp. in the air or by A.fumigatus on the floor. Related clinical and environmental isolates were genotyped in 9 cases of aspergillus colonisation. For A. fumigatus (4 cases), two identical microsatellite profiles were found between clinical and environmental isolates collected on distant dates or locations. For other Aspergillus species, isolates were different in 2 cases; in 3 cases of aspergillus colonisation by A. sydowii, A. niger and A. calidoustus, similarity between clinical and environmental internal transcribed spacer and tubulin sequences was >99%. Conclusion: Taken together, these results support the hypothesis of environmental risk of hospital acquisition of aspergillus colonisation in lung transplant recipients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To relate socio-demographic and virological information to phylogenetic clustering in HIV infected patients in a limited geographical area and to evaluate the role of recently infected individuals in the spread of HIV. Methods: HIV-1 pol sequences from newly diagnosed and treatment-naive patients receiving follow-up between 2008 and 2011 by physicians belonging to a health network in Paris were used to build a phylogenetic tree using neighbour-joining analysis. Time since infection was estimated by immunoassay to define recently infected patients (very early infected presenters, VEP). Data on socio-demographic, clinical and biological features in clustered and non-clustered patients were compared. Chains of infection structure was also analysed. Results: 547 patients were included, 49 chains of infection containing 108 (20%) patients were identified by phylogenetic analysis. analysis. Eighty individuals formed pairs and 28 individuals were belonging to larger clusters. The median time between two successive HIV diagnoses in the same chain of infection was 248 days [CI = 176–320]. 34.7% of individuals were considered as VEP, and 27% of them were included in chains of infection. Multivariable analysis showed that belonging to a cluster was more frequent in VEP and those under 30 years old (OR: 3.65, 95 CI 1.49–8.95, p = 0.005 and OR: 2.42, 95% CI 1.05–5.85, p = 0.04 respectively). The prevalence of drug resistance was not associated with belonging to a pair or a cluster. Within chains, VEP were not grouped together more than chance predicted (p = 0.97). Conclusions: Most newly diagnosed patients did not belong to a chain of infection, confirming the importance of undiagnosed or untreated HIV infected individuals in transmission. Furthermore, clusters involving both recently infected individuals and longstanding infected individuals support a substantial role in transmission of the latter before diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study was conducted to assess the impact of chikungunya on health costs during the epidemic that occurred on La Réunion in 2005–2006. Methodology/Principal Findings: From data collected from health agencies, the additional costs incurred by chikungunya in terms of consultations, drug consumption and absence from work were determined by a comparison with the expected costs outside the epidemic period. The cost of hospitalization was estimated from data provided by the national hospitalization database for short-term care by considering all hospital stays in which the ICD-10 code A92.0 appeared. A cost-of-illness study was conducted from the perspective of the third-party payer. Direct medical costs per outpatient and inpatient case were evaluated. The costs were estimated in Euros at 2006 values. Additional reimbursements for consultations with general practitioners and drugs were estimated as €12.4 million (range: €7.7 million–€17.1 million) and €5 million (€1.9 million–€8.1 million), respectively, while the cost of hospitalization for chikungunya was estimated to be €8.5 million (€5.8 million–€8.7 million). Productivity costs were estimated as €17.4 million (€6 million–€28.9 million). The medical cost of the chikungunya epidemic was estimated as €43.9 million, 60% due to direct medical costs and 40% to indirect costs (€26.5 million and €17.4 million, respectively). The direct medical cost was assessed as €90 for each outpatient and €2,000 for each inpatient. Conclusions/Significance: The medical management of chikungunya during the epidemic on La Réunion Island was associated with an important economic burden. The estimated cost of the reported disease can be used to evaluate the cost/efficacy and cost/benefit ratios for prevention and control programmes of emerging arboviruses. Author Summary: For a long time, studies of chikungunya virus infection have been neglected, but since its resurgence in the south-western Indian Ocean and on La Réunion Island, this disease has been paid greater amounts of attention. The economic and social impacts of chikungunya epidemics are poorly documented, including in developed countries. This study estimated the cost-of-illness associated with the 2005–2006 chikungunya epidemics on La Réunion Island, a French overseas department with an economy and health care system of a developed country. "Cost-of-illness" studies measure the amount that would have been saved in the absence of a disease. We found that the epidemic incurred substantial medical expenses estimated at €43.9 million, of which 60% were attributable to direct medical costs related, in particular, to expenditure on medical consultations (47%), hospitalization (32%) and drugs (19%). The costs related to care in ambulatory and hospitalized cases were €90 and €2000 per case, respectively. This study provides the basic inputs for conducting cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit evaluations of chikungunya prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite the dramatic decline in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) observed since the introduction of conjugate vaccination, it is feared that several factors may undermine the future effectiveness of the vaccines. In particular, pathogenic pneumococci may switch their capsular types and evade vaccine-conferred immunity. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, we first review the literature and summarize the available epidemiological data on capsular switch for S. pneumoniae. We estimate the weekly probability that a persistently carried strain may switch its capsule from four studies, totalling 516 children and 6 years of follow-up, at 1.5x10-3/week [4.6x10-5-4.8-10-3/week]. There is not enough power to assess an increase in this frequency in vaccinated individuals. Then, we use a mathematical model of pneumococcal transmission to quantify the impact of capsular switch on the incidence of IPD in a vaccinated population. In this model, we investigate a wide range of values for the frequency of vaccine-selected capsular switch. Predictions show that, with vaccine-independent switching only, IPD incidence in children should be down by 48% 5 years after the introduction of the vaccine with high coverage. Introducing vaccine-selected capsular switch at a frequency up to 0.01/week shows little effect on this decrease; yearly, at most 3 excess cases of IPD per 106 children might occur due to switched pneumococcal strains. Conclusions: Based on all available data and model predictions, the existence of capsular switch by itself should not impact significantly the efficacy of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on IPD incidence. This optimistic result should be tempered by the fact that the selective pressure induced by the vaccine is currently increasing along with vaccine coverage worldwide; continued surveillance of pneumococcal populations remains of the utmost importance, in particular during clinical trials of the new conjugate vaccines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To estimate the magnitude of the risks associated with age, obesity, pregnancy and diabetes, we compared the prevalence of these conditions reported in hospitalized severe cases to that in the general population, during the 2009-2010 A(H1N1) pandemic flu in France. Pregnancy, obesity, heart failure and diabetes were risk factors for admission into an intensive care unit (OR=5.2 [95%CI 4.0-6.9], 3.8 [3.0-4.9], 3.3 [2.6-4.1] and 2.8 [2.3-3.4], respectively). Only heart failure, obesity, and diabetes were significantly associated with death (OR=6.9 [4.9-9.8], 3.6 [1.9-6.2], and 3.5 [2.5-5.1], respectively). Elderly adults were at lower risk of being admitted into an ICU, but at higher risk of death.

Background: Experimental results evidenced the infectious potential of the dental pulp of animals infected with transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE). This route of iatrogenic transmission of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) may exist in humans via reused endodontic instruments if inadequate prion decontamination procedures are used., Methodology/principal Findings: To assess this risk, 10 critical parameters in the transmission process were identified, starting with contamination of an endodontic file during treatment of an infectious sCJD patient and ending with possible infection of a subsequent susceptible patient. It was assumed that a dose-risk response existed, with no-risk below threshold values. Plausible ranges of those parameters were obtained through literature search and expert opinions, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted. Without effective prion-deactivation procedures, the risk of being infected during endodontic treatment ranged between 3.4 and 13 per million procedures. The probability that more than one case was infected secondary to endodontic treatment of an infected sCJD patient ranged from 47% to 77% depending on the assumed quantity of infective material necessary for disease transmission. If current official recommendations on endodontic instrument decontamination were strictly followed, the risk of secondary infection would become quasi-null., Conclusion: The risk of sCJD transmission through endodontic procedure compares with other health care risks of current concern such as death after liver biopsy or during general anaesthesia. These results show that single instrument use or adequate prion-decontamination procedures like those recently implemented in dental practice must be rigorously enforced.