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Background: Echogenic Intracardiac Foci (EIF) are non-structural markers identified during the routine 18–20-week foetal anomaly ultrasound scan yet their clinical significance on future outcomes for the infant is unclear. Objective: To examine the association between EIF and risk of preterm birth, chromosomal abnormalities, and cardiac abnormalities. Design: A review across four databases to identify English language journal articles of EIF using a cohort study design. All studies were reviewed for quality using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist and data extracted for comparison and analysis. Results: 19 papers from 9 different countries were included. Combining these studies showed 4.6% (95% CI = 4.55–4.65%) of all pregnancies had EIF which was on the left in 86% of cases, on the right in 3% of cases and bilaterally in 10%. There was no evidence that EIF was associated with higher rates of preterm birth. However, it is possible that infants with EIF were more likely to be terminated rather than be born preterm as there was a 2.1% (range 0.3–4.2%) rate of termination or death of the foetus after week 20 among those with EIF. There was no evidence that EIF alone is highly predictive of chromosomal abnormalities. There was evidence that EIF is associated with higher rates of minor cardiac abnormalities (e.g. ventricular septal defect, tricuspid regurgitation or mitral regurgitation)) with 5.1% (224 of 4385) of those with EIF showing cardiac abnormalities (3.08% in retrospective studies and 17.85% in prospective studies). However, the risk of cardiac defects was only higher with right-sided EIF and where the EIF persisted into the third trimester. However, this is a rare event and would be seen in an estimated 4 per 10,000 pregnancies. Conclusion: EIF alone was not associated with adverse outcomes for the infant. Only persistent EIF on the right side showed evidence of carrying a higher risk of cardiac abnormality and would warrant further follow-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: School readiness is a measure of a child's cognitive, social, and emotional readiness to begin formal schooling. Children with low school readiness need additional support from schools for learning, developing required social and academic skills, and catching-up with their school-ready peers. This study aims to identify the most significant risk factors associated with low school readiness using linked routine data for children in Wales. Method: This was a longitudinal cohort study using linked data. The cohort comprises of children who completed the Foundation Phase assessment between 2012 and 2018. Individuals were identified by linking Welsh Demographic Service and Pre16 Education Attainment datasets. School readiness was assessed via the binary outcome of the Foundation Phase assessment (achieved/not achieved). This study used multivariable logistic regression model and a decision tree to identify and weight the most important risk factors associated with low school readiness. Results: In order of importance, logistic regression identified maternal learning difficulties (adjusted odds ratio 5.35(95% confidence interval 3.97–7.22)), childhood epilepsy (2.95(2.39–3.66)), very low birth weight (2.24(1.86–2.70), being a boy (2.11(2.04–2.19)), being on free school meals (1.85(1.78–1.93)), living in the most deprived areas (1.67(1.57–1.77)), maternal death (1.47(1.09–1.98)), and maternal diabetes (1.46(1.23–1.78)) as factors associated with low school readiness. Using a decision tree, eligibility for free school meals, being a boy, absence/low attendance at school, being born late in the academic year, being a low birthweight child, and not being breastfed were factors which were associated with low school readiness. Conclusion: This work suggests that public health interventions focusing on children who are: boys, living in deprived areas, have poor early years attendance, have parents with learning difficulties, have parents with an illness or have illnesses themselves, would make the most difference to school readiness in the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ankylosing spondylitis is the second most common cause of inflammatory arthritis. However, a successful diagnosis can take a decade to confirm from symptom onset (via x-rays). The aim of this study was to use machine learning methods to develop a profile of the characteristics of people who are likely to be given a diagnosis of AS in future. The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank was used. Patients with ankylosing spondylitis were identified using their routine data and matched with controls who had no record of a diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis or axial spondyloarthritis. Data was analysed separately for men and women. The model was developed using feature/variable selection and principal component analysis to develop decision trees. The decision tree with the highest average F value was selected and validated with a test dataset. The model for men indicated that lower back pain, uveitis, and NSAID use under age 20 is associated with AS development. The model for women showed an older age of symptom presentation compared to men with back pain and multiple pain relief medications. The models showed good prediction (positive predictive value 70%-80%) in test data but in the general population where prevalence is very low (0.09% of the population in this dataset) the positive predictive value would be very low (0.33%-0.25%). Machine learning can be used to help profile and understand the characteristics of people who will develop AS, and in test datasets with artificially high prevalence, will perform well. However, when applied to a general population with low prevalence rates, such as that in primary care, the positive predictive value for even the best model would be 1.4%. Multiple models may be needed to narrow down the population over time to improve the predictive value and therefore reduce the time to diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing contributor to the global burden of noncommunicable diseases. Early diagnosis and treatment can reduce the severity of kidney damage and the need for dialysis or transplantation. It is not known whether mild-to-moderate renal pelvis dilatation (RPD) identified at 18-20 weeks gestation is an early indicator of renal pathology. The aim of this follow-up to the Welsh Study of Mothers and Babies was to assess the risk of hospital admission in children with mild-to-moderate antenatal RPD compared with children without this finding. We also examined how the natural history of the RPD (whether the dilatation persists in later pregnancy or postpartum) or its characteristics (unilateral versus bilateral) changed the risk of hospital admission. Methods/Findings This population-based cohort study included singleton babies born in Wales between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011 (n = 22,045). We linked ultrasound scan data to routinely available data on hospital admissions from the Patient Episode Database for Wales (PEDW). The outcome was a hospital admission for urinary tract causes (defined by an expert study steering group) in the first three years of life. We used Cox regression to model time to first hospital admission, according to whether there was evidence of RPD at the fetal anomaly scan (FAS) and/or evidence of dilatation in later investigations, adjusting for other predictors of admission. We used multiple imputation with chained equations to impute values for missing data. We included 21,239 children in the analysis. The risk of at least one hospital admission was seven times greater in those with RPD (n = 138) compared with those without (n = 21,101, conditional hazard ratio [cHR] 7.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.31-12.15, p < 0.001). The risk of hospital admission was higher in children with RPD at the FAS and later dilatation (cHR 25.13, 95% CI 13.26-47.64, p < 0.001) and in children without RPD at the FAS who had later dilatation (cHR 62.06, 95% CI 41.10-93.71, p < 0.001) than in children without RPD (n = 21,057). Among children with RPD at the FAS but no dilatation in later pregnancy or postpartum, we did not find an association with hospital admissions (cHR 2.16, 95% CI 0.69-6.75, p = 0.185), except when the initial dilatation was bilateral (cHR 4.77, 95% CI 1.17-19.47, p = 0.029). Limitations of the study include small numbers in subgroups (meaning that these results should be interpreted with caution), that less severe outcomes (such as urinary tract infections [UTIs] managed in the community or in outpatients) could not be included in our analysis, and that obtaining records of radiological investigations later in pregnancy and postpartum was challenging. Our conclusions were consistent after conducting sensitivity analyses to account for some of these limitations. Conclusions In this large population-based study, children with RPD at the FAS had higher rates of hospital admissions when there was persistent dilatation in later pregnancy or postpartum. Our results can be used to improve counselling of parents and develop care pathways for antenatal screening programmes, including protocols for reporting and further investigation of RPD., Author(s): Lisa Hurt 1, Melissa Wright 2, Joanne Demmler 3, Judith VanDerVoort 4, Susan Morris 4, Fiona Brook 5, David Tucker 6, Maria Chapman 7, Nick A. Francis 1, Rhian [...]

Background: Like many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya has experienced rapid urbanization in recent years. Despite the distinct socioeconomic and environmental differences, few studies have examined the adherence to movement guidelines in urban and rural areas. This cross-sectional study aimed at examining compliance to the 24-hour movement guidelines and their correlates among children from urban and rural Kenya. Method: Children (n = 539) aged 11.1 ± 0.8 years (52% female) were recruited from 8 urban and 8 rural private and public schools in Kenya. Physical activity (PA) and sleep duration were estimated using 24-h raw data from wrist-worn accelerometers. Screen time (ST) and potential correlates were self- reported. Multi-level logistic regression was applied to identify correlates of adherence to combined and individual movement guidelines. Results: Compliance with the combined movement guidelines was low overall (7%), and higher among rural (10%) than urban (5%) children. Seventy-six percent of rural children met the individual PA guidelines compared to 60% urban children while more rural children also met sleep guidelines (27% vs 14%). The odds of meeting the combined movement guidelines reduced with age (OR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.35–0.87, p = 0.01), was greater among those who could swim (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.09–9.83, p = 0.04), and among those who did not engage in ST before school (OR = 4.40, 95% CI = 1.81–10.68, p<0.01). The odds of meeting PA guidelines increased with the number of weekly physical education sessions provided at school (OR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.36–3.21, p<0.01) and was greater among children who spent their lunch break walking (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.15–5.55, p = 0.02) or running relative to those who spent it sitting (OR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.27–4.27, p = 0.01). Conclusions: Prevalence of meeting movement guidelines among Kenyan children is low and of greatest concern in urban areas. Several correlates were identified, particularly influential were features of the school day, School is thus a significant setting to promote a healthy balance between sleep, sedentary time, and PA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pregnancy can be a stressful time and the COVID-19 pandemic has affected all aspects of life. This study aims to investigate the pandemic impact on pregnancy experience, rates of primary childhood immunisations and the differences in birth outcomes in during 2020 to those of previous years. Methods: Self-reported pregnancy experience: 215 expectant mothers (aged 16+) in Wales completed an online survey about their experiences of pregnancy during the pandemic. The qualitative survey data was analysed using codebook thematic analysis. Population-level birth outcomes in Wales: Stillbirths, prematurity, birth weight and Caesarean section births before (2016–2019) and during (2020) the pandemic were compared using anonymised individual-level, population-scale routine data held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Uptake of the first three scheduled primary childhood immunisations were compared between 2019 and 2020. Findings: The pandemic had a negative impact on the mental health of 71% of survey respondents, who reported anxiety, stress and loneliness; this was associated with attending scans without their partner, giving birth alone, and minimal contact with midwives. There was no significant difference in annual outcomes including gestation and birth weight, stillbirths, and Caesarean sections for infants born in 2020 compared to 2016–2019. There was an increase in late term births (≥42 weeks gestation) during the first lockdown (OR: 1.28, p = 0.019) and a decrease in moderate to late preterm births (32–36 weeks gestation) during the second lockdown (OR: 0.74, p = 0.001). Fewer babies were born in 2020 (N = 29,031) compared to 2016–2019 (average N = 32,582). All babies received their immunisations in 2020, but there were minor delays in the timings of immunisations. Those due at 8-weeks were 8% less likely to be on time (within 28-days) and at 16-weeks, they were 19% less likely to be on time. Interpretation: Whilst the pandemic had a negative impact on mothers' experiences of pregnancy. Population-level data suggests that this did not translate to adverse birth outcomes for babies born during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: School-based COVID-19 mitigation strategies have greatly impacted the primary school day (children aged 3–11) including: wearing face coverings, two metre distancing, no mixing of children, and no breakfast clubs or extra-curricular activities. This study examines these mitigation measures and association with COVID-19 infection, respiratory infection, and school staff wellbeing between October to December 2020 in Wales, UK. Methods: A school staff survey captured self-reported COVID-19 mitigation measures in the school, participant anxiety and depression, and open-text responses regarding experiences of teaching and implementing measures. These survey responses were linked to national-scale COVID-19 test results data to examine association of measures in the school and the likelihood of a positive (staff or pupil) COVID-19 case in the school (clustered by school, adjusted for school size and free school meals using logistic regression). Linkage was conducted through the SAIL (Secure Anonymised Information Linkage) Databank. Results: Responses were obtained from 353 participants from 59 primary schools within 15 of 22 local authorities. Having more direct non-household contacts was associated with a higher likelihood of COVID-19 positive case in the school (1–5 contacts compared to none, OR 2.89 (1.01, 8.31)) and a trend to more self-reported cold symptoms. Staff face covering was not associated with a lower odds of school COVID-19 cases (mask vs. no covering OR 2.82 (1.11, 7.14)) and was associated with higher self-reported cold symptoms. School staff reported the impacts of wearing face coverings on teaching, including having to stand closer to pupils and raise their voices to be heard. 67.1% were not able to implement two metre social distancing from pupils. We did not find evidence that maintaining a two metre distance was associated with lower rates of COVID-19 in the school. Conclusions: Implementing, adhering to and evaluating COVID-19 mitigation guidelines is challenging in primary school settings. Our findings suggest that reducing non-household direct contacts lowers infection rates. There was no evidence that face coverings, two metre social distancing or stopping children mixing was associated with lower odds of COVID-19 or cold infection rates in the school. Primary school staff found teaching challenging during COVID-19 restrictions, especially for younger learners and those with additional learning needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 infection and the resultant restrictions has impacted all aspects of life across the world. This study explores factors that promote or support wellbeing for young people during the pandemic, how they differ by age, using a self-reported online survey with those aged 8–25 in Wales between September 2020 and February 2021. Open-ended responses were analysed via thematic analysis to provide further context. A total of 6,291 responses were obtained from 81 education settings across Wales (including primary and secondary schools as well as sixth form, colleges and universities). Wellbeing was highest in primary school children and boys and lowest in those who were at secondary school children, who were girls and, those who preferred not to give a gender. Among primary school children, higher wellbeing was seen for those who played with lots of others (rather than alone), were of Asian ethnicity (OR 2.17, 95% CI: 1.26 to 4.3), had a safe play area (OR: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.67 to 2.56) and had more sleep. To support their wellbeing young people reported they would like to be able to play with their friends more. Among secondary school children those who were of mixed ethnicity reported lower wellbeing (OR: 5.14, 95% CI: 1.68 to 15.79). To support their wellbeing they reported they would like more support with mental health (due to anxiety and pressure to achieve when learning online). This study found self-reported wellbeing differed by gender, ethnicity and deprivation and found younger children report the need for play and to see friends to support wellbeing but older children/young people wanted more support with anxiety and educational pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

School closures due to the COVID-19 global pandemic are likely to have a range of negative consequences spanning the domains of child development, education and health, in addition to the widening of inequalities and inequities. Research is required to improve understanding of the impact of school closures on the education, health and wellbeing of pupils and school staff, the challenges posed during face-to-face reopening and importantly to identify how the impacts of these challenges can be addressed going forward to inform emerging policy and practice. This qualitative study aimed to reflect on the perspectives and experiences of primary school staff (pupils aged 3–11) in Wales regarding school closures and the initial face-to-face reopening of schools and to identify recommendations for the future. A total of 208 school staff completed a national online survey through the HAPPEN primary school network, consisting of questions about school closures (March to June 2020), the phased face-to-face reopening of schools (June to July 2020) and a return to face-to-face education. Thematic analysis of survey responses highlighted that primary school staff perceive that gaps in learning, health and wellbeing have increased and inequalities have widened during school closures. Findings from this study identified five recommendations; (i) prioritise the health and wellbeing of pupils and staff; (ii) focus on enabling parental engagement and support; (iii) improve digital competence amongst pupils, teachers and parents; (iv) consider opportunities for smaller class sizes and additional staffing; and (v) improve the mechanism of communication between schools and families, and between government and schools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Maternal depression is a risk factor for depression in children, though the influence of paternal depression has been less well examined. We examined the association between maternal and paternal depression, and the timing of their depression (before or after the child's birth) and outcomes for the child including incidence of child depression and poor educational attainment. Methods: A linked routine data cohort study linking General Practitioner(GP), hospital and education records of young people (aged 0 to 30 years) in Wales. Parental and child diagnosis of depression was identified from GP data. Regression analysis examined the association of maternal and paternal depression with time to diagnosis of depression in the child and odds of attaining educational milestones. Outcomes: In adjusted models, the relative risk of offspring developing depression was 1.22 if the mother had depression before the child was born, 1.55 if the mother had depression after the child was born and 1.73 if she had depression both before and after the child was born (chronic depression), compared to those were there was no maternal depression history. For achieving milestones at end of primary school, odds were 0.92, 0.88 and 0.79 respectively. Association of depression in the child was similar if the male living in the household had depression with risk ratios of 1.24 (before), 1.43 (after) and 1.27 (before and after) for child diagnosed depression and 0.85, 0.79 and 0.74 for achieving age 11 milestones. Interpretation: Children who live with a parent who has depression are more likely to develop depression and not achieve educational milestones, compared to children who live with a parent who has a history of depression (but no active depression in child's lifetime) and compared to those with no depression. This finding suggests that working closely with families where depression (particularly chronic depression) is present in either parent and treating parental depression to remission is likely to have long-term benefits for children's mental health and educational attainment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are commonly prescribed for prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal conditions or for gastroprotection from other drugs. Research suggests they are linked to increased dementia risk. We use linked national health data to examine the association between PPI use and the development of incident dementia. Methods and findings: A population-based study using electronic health-data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank, Wales (UK) from 1999 to 2015. Of data available on 3,765,744 individuals, a cohort who had ever been prescribed a PPI was developed (n = 183,968) for people aged 55 years and over and compared to non-PPI exposed individuals (131,110). Those with prior dementia, mild-cognitive-impairment or delirium codes were excluded. Confounding factors included comorbidities and/or drugs associated with them. Comorbidities might include head injury and some examples of medications include antidepressants, antiplatelets and anticoagulants. These commonly prescribed drugs were investigated as it was not feasible to explore all drugs in this study. The main outcome was a diagnosis of incident dementia. Cox proportional hazard regression modelling was used to calculate the Hazard ratio (HR) of developing dementia in PPI-exposed compared to unexposed individuals while controlling for potential confounders. The mean age of the PPI exposed individuals was 69.9 years and 39.8% male while the mean age of the unexposed individuals was 72.1 years and 41.1% male. The rate of PPI usage was 58.4% (183,968) and incident dementia rate was 11.8% (37,148/315,078). PPI use was associated with decreased dementia risk (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.65 to 0.67, p<0.01). Conclusions: This study, using large-scale, multi-centre health-data was unable to confirm an association between PPI use and increased dementia risk. Previously reported links may be associated with confounders of people using PPI's, such as increased risk of cardiovascular disease and/or depression and their associated medications which may be responsible for any increased risk of developing dementia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Built environments have been cited as important facilitators of activity and research using geographic information systems (GIS) has emerged as a novel approach in exploring environmental determinants. The Active Children Through Individual Vouchers Evaluation Project used GIS to conduct a cross-sectional analysis of how teenager's (aged 13–14) environments impacted on their amount of activity and influences fitness. The ACTIVE Project recruited 270 participants aged 13–14 (year 9) from 7 secondary schools in south Wales, UK. Demographic data and objective measures of accelerometery and fitness were collected from each participant between September and December 2016. Objective data was mapped in a GIS alongside datasets relating to activity provision, active travel routes, public transport stops, main roads and natural resources. This study shows that fitness and physical activity are not correlated. Teenagers who had higher levels of activity also had higher levels of sedentary time/inactivity. Teenagers showed higher amounts of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity if their homes were closer to public transport. However, they were also more active if their schools were further away from public transport and natural resources. Teenagers were fitter if schools were closer to natural resources. Sedentary behaviour, fitness and activity do not cluster in the same teenagers. Policymakers/planning committees need to consider this when designing teenage friendly environments. Access to public transport, active travel, green space and activities that teenagers want, and need could make a significant difference to teenage health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a significant delay between seeking help and a confirmed diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). This delay can lead to poor outcomes for both the families and individuals. Telehealth potentially offers a way of improving the diagnostic pathway for ASD. We conducted a scoping review examining which telehealth approaches are used in the diagnosis and assessment of ASD in children and adults, whether they are feasible and acceptable, and how they compare with face-to-face diagnosis and assessment methods. A search for all peer-reviewed articles, combining the terms of autism and telehealth was conducted from 2000 to 2019. A total of 10 studies were identified for inclusion in the review. This review of the literature found there to be two methods of using telehealth: (a) Real-Time method e.g. video conferencing that enables teams in different areas to consult with the families and to assess the child/adult in real time and (b) A Store-and-Forward method as Naturalistic Observation Diagnostic Assessment (NODA) system to upload videos of child's behaviors to a webportal that enables the clinicians to make an assessment remotely. The findings were positive, finding there to be high agreement in terms of the diagnosis between remote methods and face to face methods and with high levels of satisfaction among the families and clinicians. This field is in the very early stages and so only studies with small sample size using surveys and interviews were identified but the findings suggest that there is potential for telehealth methods to improve access to assessment and diagnosis of ASD used in conjunction with existing methods, especially for those with clear autism traits and adults with ASD. Larger randomised controlled trials of this technology are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although interventions delivered in school settings have the potential to improve children's health and well-being, the implementation of effective interventions in schools presents challenges. Previous research suggests facilitating greater autonomy for schools to select interventions aligned to their needs could improve implementation and maintenance. The aim of this mixed-methods outcome and process evaluation was to explore whether involving headteachers in the developmental stages of health interventions influenced adoption, effectiveness (e.g. pupil fitness and physical activity, assessed quantitatively), implementation and maintenance (assessed quantitatively and qualitatively). Three UK primary schools were provided with a choice of five evidence-based physical activity interventions: Playground scrapstore, daily classroom refreshers, alternative afterschool clubs, parent and child afterschool activities and an 'In the Zone' playground intervention. To evaluate the impact of this autonomous approach, semi-structured interviews with headteachers (n = 3), teachers (n = 3), and a private coach, and focus groups with pupils aged 9–11 (n = 6, 31 pupils, 15 boys), were undertaken. This was alongside an outcome and process evaluation, guided by the RE-AIM framework. This study assessed the impacts on adoption, implementation and maintenance of the autonomous approach and the effect on physical activity (seven day accelerometry–GENEActiv) and aerobic fitness (20m shuttle run). All three schools adopted different intervention components; alternative afterschool clubs, parent and child afterschool activities and daily classroom refreshers. Headteachers welcomed greater autonomy in developing school-based interventions and appreciated the more collaborative approach. Mixed results were reported for the effectiveness, implementation and maintenance of the interventions adopted. Allowing pupils choice and promoting a positive school environment were key factors for enhancing engagement. Moreover, promoting inclusive physical activity projects with a consideration of existing curriculum pressures aided implementation. This mixed-methods study provides valuable insights about autonomous approaches to inform further development, implementation and maintenance for future interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regular physical activity (PA) during childhood is associated with a range of positive health outcomes and higher educational attainment. However, only 2.0% to 14.7% of girls and 9.5% to 34.1% of boys are meeting the current PA guidelines of 60 minutes of moderate to vigorous PA daily. Schools are targeted as a key setting to improve children's PA levels. The Daily Mile (TDM), a teacher-led 15 minute PA intervention was established in 2012 and has been widely adopted globally. However, the dynamic school environment generates challenges for school-based interventions to follow a uniform implementation method resulting in sustainability issues and limited evaluation. The aims of this mixed-methods study were to (1) explore whether whole-school experiences of TDM were related to implementation and (2) examine the association between TDM and CRF in children from high and low socio-economic groups. Focus groups with pupils (n = 6) and interviews with teachers (n = 9) and headteachers (n = 2) were conducted to explore factors associated with successful implementation. Pupils (n = 258 imputed) aged 9–11 from six primary schools in south Wales, United Kingdom participated in CRF assessments (20m shuttle run test) at two time-points (baseline, 6 month follow-up). Thematic analyses of qualitative measures and linear regression analyses of quantitative measures were used to assess the research questions. Qualitative findings identified implementation factors associated with a positive experience of TDM; flexible and adaptable, not replacing current play provision but delivered as an additional playtime, incorporate personal goal setting, teacher participation, whole-school delivery with community support. Both groups demonstrated equal increases in shuttles between baseline and follow-up (deprived: 4.7 ± 13.4, non-deprived: 4.8 ± 16.0). There was no significant difference in this increase for deprived compared to non-deprived children adjusted for age and gender. Findings from this study provide a set of recommendations for the future implementation and sustainability of TDM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between child health, wellbeing and education demonstrates that healthier and happier children achieve higher educational attainment. An engaging curriculum that facilitates children in achieving their academic potential has strong implications for educational outcomes, future employment prospects, and health and wellbeing during adulthood. Outdoor learning is a pedagogical approach used to enrich learning, enhance school engagement and improve pupil health and wellbeing. However, its non-traditional means of achieving curricular aims are not yet recognised beyond the early years by education inspectorates. This requires evidence into its acceptability from those at the forefront of delivery. This study aimed to explore headteachers’, teachers’ and pupils’ views and experiences of an outdoor learning programme within the key stage two curriculum (ages 9–11) in South Wales, United Kingdom. We examine the process of implementation to offer case study evidence through 1:1 interviews with headteachers (n = 3) and teachers (n = 10) and focus groups with pupils aged 9–11 (n = 10) from three primary schools. Interviews and focus groups were conducted at baseline and six months into implementation. Schools introduced regular outdoor learning within the curriculum. This study found a variety of perceived benefits for pupils and schools. Pupils and teachers noticed improvements in pupils’ engagement with learning, concentration and behaviour, as well as positive impacts on health and wellbeing and teachers’ job satisfaction. Curriculum demands including testing and evidencing work were barriers to implementation, in addition to safety concerns, resources and teacher confidence. Participants supported outdoor learning as a curriculum-based programme for older primary school pupils. However, embedding outdoor learning within the curriculum requires education inspectorates to place higher value on this approach in achieving curricular aims, alongside greater acknowledgment of the wider benefits to children which current measurements do not capture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: UK Biobank is a UK-wide cohort of 502,655 people aged 40–69, recruited from National Health Service registrants between 2006–10, with healthcare data linkage. Type 2 diabetes is a key exposure and outcome. We developed algorithms to define prevalent and incident diabetes for UK Biobank. The algorithms will be implemented by UK Biobank and their results made available to researchers on request. Methods: We used UK Biobank self-reported medical history and medication to assign prevalent diabetes and type, and tested this against linked primary and secondary care data in Welsh UK Biobank participants. Additionally, we derived and tested algorithms for incident diabetes using linked primary and secondary care data in the English Clinical Practice Research Datalink, and ran these on secondary care data in UK Biobank. Results and Significance: For prevalent diabetes, 0.001% and 0.002% of people classified as “diabetes unlikely” in UK Biobank had evidence of diabetes in their primary or secondary care record respectively. Of those classified as “probable” type 2 diabetes, 75% and 96% had specific type 2 diabetes codes in their primary and secondary care records. For incidence, 95% of people with the type 2 diabetes-specific C10F Read code in primary care had corroborative evidence of diabetes from medications, blood testing or diabetes specific process of care codes. Only 41% of people identified with type 2 diabetes in primary care had secondary care evidence of type 2 diabetes. In contrast, of incident cases using ICD-10 type 2 diabetes specific codes in secondary care, 77% had corroborative evidence of diabetes in primary care. We suggest our definition of prevalent diabetes from UK Biobank baseline data has external validity, and recommend that specific primary care Read codes should be used for incident diabetes to ensure precision. Secondary care data should be used for incident diabetes with caution, as around half of all cases are missed, and a quarter have no corroborative evidence of diabetes in primary care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: 1) To use data-driven method to examine clinical codes (risk factors) of a medical condition in primary care electronic health records (EHRs) that can accurately predict a diagnosis of the condition in secondary care EHRs. 2) To develop and validate a disease phenotyping algorithm for rheumatoid arthritis using primary care EHRs. Methods: This study linked routine primary and secondary care EHRs in Wales, UK. A machine learning based scheme was used to identify patients with rheumatoid arthritis from primary care EHRs via the following steps: i) selection of variables by comparing relative frequencies of Read codes in the primary care dataset associated with disease case compared to non-disease control (disease/non-disease based on the secondary care diagnosis); ii) reduction of predictors/associated variables using a Random Forest method, iii) induction of decision rules from decision tree model. The proposed method was then extensively validated on an independent dataset, and compared for performance with two existing deterministic algorithms for RA which had been developed using expert clinical knowledge. Results: Primary care EHRs were available for 2,238,360 patients over the age of 16 and of these 20,667 were also linked in the secondary care rheumatology clinical system. In the linked dataset, 900 predictors (out of a total of 43,100 variables) in the primary care record were discovered more frequently in those with versus those without RA. These variables were reduced to 37 groups of related clinical codes, which were used to develop a decision tree model. The final algorithm identified 8 predictors related to diagnostic codes for RA, medication codes, such as those for disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, and absence of alternative diagnoses such as psoriatic arthritis. The proposed data-driven method performed as well as the expert clinical knowledge based methods. Conclusion: Data-driven scheme, such as ensemble machine learning methods, has the potential of identifying the most informative predictors in a cost-effective and rapid way to accurately and reliably classify rheumatoid arthritis or other complex medical conditions in primary care EHRs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a chronic inflammatory arthritis which typically begins in early adulthood and impacts on healthcare resource utilisation and the ability to work. Previous studies examining the cost of AS have relied on patient-reported questionnaires based on recall. This study uses a combination of patient-reported and linked-routine data to examine the cost of AS in Wales, UK. Methods: Participants in an existing AS cohort study (n = 570) completed questionnaires regarding work status, out-of-pocket expenses, visits to health professionals and disease severity. Participants gave consent for their data to be linked to routine primary and secondary care clinical datasets. Health resource costs were calculated using a bottom-up micro-costing approach. Human capital costs methods were used to estimate work productivity loss costs, particularly relating to work and early retirement. Regression analyses were used to account for age, gender, disease activity. Results: The total cost of AS in the UK is estimated at £19016 per patient per year, calculated to include GP attendance, administration costs and hospital costs derived from routine data records, plus patient-reported non-NHS costs, out-of-pocket AS-related expenses, early retirement, absenteeism, presenteeism and unpaid assistance costs. The majority of the cost (>80%) was as a result of work-related costs. Conclusion: The major cost of AS is as a result of loss of working hours, early retirement and unpaid carer’s time. Therefore, much of AS costs are hidden and not easy to quantify. Functional impairment is the main factor associated with increased cost of AS. Interventions which keep people in work to retirement age and reduce functional impairment would have the greatest impact on reducing costs of AS. The combination of patient-reported and linked routine data significantly enhanced the health economic analysis and this methodology that can be applied to other chronic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although inequalities in health and socioeconomic status have an important influence on childhood educational performance, the interactions between these multiple factors relating to variation in educational outcomes at micro-level is unknown, and how to evaluate the many possible interactions of these factors is not well established. This paper aims to examine multi-dimensional deprivation factors and their impact on childhood educational outcomes at micro-level, focusing on geographic areas having widely different disparity patterns, in which each area is characterised by six deprivation domains (Income, Health, Geographical Access to Services, Housing, Physical Environment, and Community Safety). Traditional health statistical studies tend to use one global model to describe the whole population for macro-analysis. In this paper, we combine linked educational and deprivation data across small areas (median population of 1500), then use a local modelling technique, the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system, to predict area educational outcomes at ages 7 and 11. We define two new metrics, “Micro-impact of Domain” and “Contribution of Domain”, to quantify the variations of local impacts of multidimensional factors on educational outcomes across small areas. The two metrics highlight differing priorities. Our study reveals complex multi-way interactions between the deprivation domains, which could not be provided by traditional health statistical methods based on single global model. We demonstrate that although Income has an expected central role, all domains contribute, and in some areas Health, Environment, Access to Services, Housing and Community Safety each could be the dominant factor. Thus the relative importance of health and socioeconomic factors varies considerably for different areas, depending on the levels of each of the other factors, and therefore each component of deprivation must be considered as part of a wider system. Childhood educational achievement could benefit from policies and intervention strategies that are tailored to the local geographic areas' profiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study examines the effect of low daily physical activity levels and overweight/obesity in pregnancy on delivery and perinatal outcomes. Methods: A prospective cohort study combining manually collected postnatal notes with anonymised data linkage. A total of 466 women sampled from the Growing Up in Wales: Environments for Healthy Living study. Women completed a questionnaire and were included in the study if they had an available Body mass index (BMI) (collected at 12 weeks gestation from antenatal records) and/or a physical activity score during pregnancy (7-day Actigraph reading). The full statistical model included the following potential confounding factors: maternal age, parity and smoking status. Main outcome measures included induction rates, duration of labour, mode of delivery, infant health and duration of hospital stay. Findings: Mothers with lower physical activity levels were more likely to have an instrumental delivery (including forceps, ventouse and elective and emergency caesarean) in comparison to mothers with higher activity levels (adjusted OR:1.72(95%CI: 1.05 to 2.9)). Overweight/obese mothers were more likely to require an induction (adjusted OR:1.93 (95%CI 1.14 to 3.26), have a macrosomic baby (adjusted OR:1.96 (95%CI 1.08 to 3.56) and a longer hospital stay after delivery (adjusted OR:2.69 (95%CI 1.11 to 6.47). Conclusions: The type of delivery was associated with maternal physical activity level and not BMI. Perinatal outcomes (large for gestational age only) were determined by maternal BMI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study examines the effect of diabetes in pregnancy on offspring weight at birth and ages 1 and 5 years. Methods: A population-based electronic cohort study using routinely collected linked healthcare data. Electronic medical records provided maternal diabetes status and offspring weight at birth and ages 1 and 5 years (n = 147,773 mother child pairs). Logistic regression models were used to obtain odds ratios to describe the association between maternal diabetes status and offspring size, adjusted for maternal pre-pregnancy weight, age and smoking status. Findings: We identified 1,250 (0.9%) pregnancies with existing diabetes (27.8% with type 1 diabetes), 1,358 with gestational diabetes (0.9%) and 635 (0.4%) who developed diabetes post-pregnancy. Children whose mothers had existing diabetes were less likely to be large at 12 months (OR: 0.7 (95%CI: 0.6, 0.8)) than those without diabetes. Maternal diabetes was associated with high weight at age 5 years in children whose mothers had a high pre-pregnancy weight tertile (gestational diabetes, (OR:2.1 (95%CI:1.25–3.6)), existing diabetes (OR:1.3 (95%CI:1.0 to 1.6)). Conclusion: The prevention of childhood obesity should focus on mothers with diabetes with a high maternal pre-pregnancy weight. We found little evidence that diabetes in pregnancy leads to long term obesity ‘programming’. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy rule system is a widely used data mining technique, and is of particular use in the identification of non-linear interactions between variables. However the number of rules increases dramatically when applied to high dimensional data sets (the curse of dimensionality). Few robust methods are available to identify important rules while removing redundant ones, and this results in limited applicability in fields such as epidemiology or bioinformatics where the interaction of many variables must be considered. Here, we develop a new parsimonious TS rule system. We propose three statistics: R, L, and v-values, to rank the importance of each TS rule, and a forward selection procedure to construct a final model. We use our method to predict how key components of childhood deprivation combine to influence educational achievement outcome. We show that a parsimonious TS model can be constructed, based on a small subset of rules, that provides an accurate description of the relationship between deprivation indices and educational outcomes. The selected rules shed light on the synergistic relationships between the variables, and reveal that the effect of targeting specific domains of deprivation is crucially dependent on the state of the other domains. Policy decisions need to incorporate these interactions, and deprivation indices should not be considered in isolation. The TS rule system provides a basis for such decision making, and has wide applicability for the identification of non-linear interactions in complex biomedical data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: 1. to investigate whether 20 m multi-stage shuttle run performance (20mSRT), an indirect measure of aerobic fitness, could discriminate between healthy and overweight status in 9-10.9 yr old schoolchildren using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis; 2. Investigate if cardiometabolic risk differed by aerobic fitness group by applying the ROC cut point to a second, cross-sectional cohort. Design: Analysis of cross-sectional data. Participants: 16,619 9-10.9 year old participants from SportsLinx project and 300 11-13.9 year old participants from the Welsh Schools Health and Fitness Study. Outcome Measures: SportsLinx; 20mSRT, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, subscapular and superilliac skinfold thicknesses. Welsh Schools Health and Fitness Study; 20mSRT performance, waist circumference, and clustered cardiometabolic risk. Analyses: Three ROC curve analyses were completed, each using 20mSRT performance with ROC curve 1 related to BMI, curve 2 was related to waist circumference and 3 was related to skinfolds (estimated % body fat). These were repeated for both girls and boys. The mean of the three aerobic fitness thresholds was retained for analysis. The thresholds were subsequently applied to clustered cardiometabolic risk data from the Welsh Schools study to assess whether risk differed by aerobic fitness group. Results: The diagnostic accuracy of the ROC generated thresholds was higher than would be expected by chance (all models AUC >0.7). The mean thresholds were 33 and 25 shuttles for boys and girls respectively. Participants classified as 'fit' had significantly lower cardiometabolic risk scores in comparison to those classed as unfit (p<0.001). Conclusion: The use of the ROC generated cut points by health professionals, teachers and coaches may provide the opportunity to apply population level 'risk identification and stratification' processes and plan for "at-risk" children to be referred onto intervention services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study examines obesity and factors associated with obesity in children aged 11-13 years in the UK. Methods: 1147 children from ten secondary schools participated in a health survey that included blood samples, fitness test and anthropometric measures. Factors associated with obesity were examined using multilevel logistic regression. Findings: Of the children examined (490 male; 657 female) a third were overweight, 1 in 6 had elevated blood pressure, more than 1 in 10 had high cholesterol, 58% consumed more fat than recommended, whilst 37% were classified as unfit. Children in deprived areas had a higher proportion of risk factors; for example, they had higher blood pressure (20% (deprived) compared to 11% (non-deprived), difference: 9.0% (95%CI: 4.7%-13.4%)). Obesity is associated with risk factors for heart disease and diabetes. Maintaining fitness is associated with a reduction in the risk factors for heart disease (high blood pressure and cholesterol) but not on risk factors for diabetes (insulin levels). In order of importance, the main risk factors for childhood obesity are being unfit, having an obese father, and being large at birth. Conclusion: The high proportion of children with risk factors suggests future interventions need to focus on community and policy change to shift the population norm rather than targeting the behaviour of high risk individuals. Interventions need to focus on mothers' lifestyle in pregnancy, fathers' health, as well as promoting fitness among children. Obesity was not associated with deprivation. Therefore, strategies should be adopted in both deprived and non deprived areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]