1. Modeling the dynamics of the COVID-19 population in Australia: A probabilistic analysis.
- Author
-
Eshragh, Ali, Alizamir, Saed, Howley, Peter, and Stojanovski, Elizabeth
- Subjects
- *
SARS-CoV-2 , *COVID-19 pandemic , *COVID-19 , *STOCHASTIC processes - Abstract
The novel coronavirus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The "partially-observable stochastic process" used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF