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Vector-borne transmission of Chagas disease has become an urban problem in the city of Arequipa, Peru, yet the debilitating symptoms that can occur in the chronic stage of the disease are rarely seen in hospitals in the city. The lack of obvious clinical disease in Arequipa has led to speculation that the local strain of the etiologic agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, has low chronic pathogenicity. The long asymptomatic period of Chagas disease leads us to an alternative hypothesis for the absence of clinical cases in Arequipa: transmission in the city may be so recent that most infected individuals have yet to progress to late stage disease. Here we describe a new method, epicenter regression, that allows us to infer the spatial and temporal history of disease transmission from a snapshot of a population's infection status. We show that in a community of Arequipa, transmission of T. cruzi by the insect vector Triatoma infestans occurred as a series of focal micro-epidemics, the oldest of which began only around 20 years ago. These micro-epidemics infected nearly 5% of the community before transmission of the parasite was disrupted through insecticide application in 2004. Most extant human infections in our study community arose over a brief period of time immediately prior to vector control. According to our findings, the symptoms of chronic Chagas disease are expected to be absent, even if the strain is pathogenic in the chronic phase of disease, given the long asymptomatic period of the disease and short history of intense transmission. Traducció n al español disponible en Alternative Language Text S1/A Spanish translation of this article is available in Alternative Language Text S1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In tropical dry forests, although seed germination and seedling establishment are in general limited by the seasonal availability of water, high interspecific variability, nonetheless, exists in terms of seedling traits and germination dynamics. Differences among species in seed germination and seedling traits may be related to other plant life-history traits, such that assessing these relationships may increase our understanding of factors influencing plant establishment, which would affect the regeneration pathways of tropical dry forest communities. In this study, taking into consideration the effect species' phylogeny, we evaluated the relationships of seed germination metrics (percentage, lag time, and rate of germination) and seedling types (i.e. cotyledons functional morphology), with plant life-history traits (growth form, seed mass, dispersal syndrome and dispersal phenology) for 110 species in a Neotropical dry forest in Mexico. A total of 92% of the species studied disperse their seeds during the dry season, mainly at the beginning of this season (66%), a strategy mostly associated with autochorous herbs. Seed germination was more frequent in species that dispersed seeds at the end of the dry season. Germination percentage was not related to any of the traits studied. However, germination lag time and rate were negatively related to seed mass, a trait that in turn depended on growth form and dispersal syndrome. The dominant seedling type in the community was phanerocotylar epigeal with foliaceous cotyledons (56%), which was mostly associated with small seed mass and herbaceous growth form. Our results provide evidence that several plant life-history traits explain an important part of the variation in seed germination and seedling characteristics observed among species. Therefore, these plant life-history traits may be useful for grouping species in terms of their establishment strategies and roles on the regeneration of tropical dry communities., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.