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Author(s): Ahmed M. Arzika 1, Amza Abdou 1, Ramatou Maliki 1, Nassirou Beido 1, Boubacar Kadri 1, Abdoul N. Harouna 1, Abdoul N. Galo 1, Mankara K. Alio 1, Elodie [...], Background Randomized controlled trials found that twice-yearly mass azithromycin administration (MDA) reduces childhood mortality, presumably by reducing infection burden. World Health Organization (WHO) issued conditional guidelines for mass azithromycin administration in high-mortality settings in sub-Saharan Africa given concerns for antibiotic resistance. While prolonged twice-yearly MDA has been shown to increase antibiotic resistance in small randomized controlled trials, the objective of this study was to determine if macrolide and non-macrolide resistance in the gut increases with the duration of azithromycin MDA in a larger setting. Methods and findings The Macrolide Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) study was conducted in Niger from December 2014 to June 2020. It was a cluster-randomized trial of azithromycin (A) versus placebo (P) aimed at evaluating childhood mortality. This is a sub-study in the MORDOR trial to track changes in antibiotic resistance after prolonged azithromycin MDA. A total of 594 communities were eligible. Children 1 to 59 months in 163 randomly chosen communities were eligible to receive treatment and included in resistance monitoring. Participants, staff, and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. At the conclusion of MORDOR Phase I, by design, all communities received an additional year of twice-yearly azithromycin treatments (Phase II). Thus, at the conclusion of Phase II, the treatment history (1 letter per 6-month period) for the participating communities was either (PP-PP-AA) or (AA-AA-AA). In Phase III, participating communities were then re-randomized to receive either another 3 rounds of azithromycin or placebo, thus resulting in 4 treatment histories: Group 1 (AA-AA-AA-AA-A, N = 51), Group 2 (PP-PP-AA-AA-A, N = 40), Group 3 (AA-AA-AA-PP-P, N = 27), and Group 4 (PP-PP-AA-PP-P, N = 32). Rectal swabs from each child (N = 5,340) were obtained 6 months after the last treatment. Each child contributed 1 rectal swab and these were pooled at the community level, processed for DNA-seq, and analyzed for genetic resistance determinants. The primary prespecified outcome was macrolide resistance determinants in the gut. Secondary outcomes were resistance to beta-lactams and other antibiotic classes. Communities recently randomized to azithromycin (groups 1 and 2) had significantly more macrolide resistance determinants than those recently randomized to placebo (groups 3 and 4) (fold change 2.18, 95% CI 1.5 to 3.51, P.sub.unadj < 0.001). However, there was no significant increase in macrolide resistance in communities treated 4.5 years (group 1) compared to just the most recent 2.5 years (group 2) (fold change 0.80, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.00, P.sub.adj = 0.010), or between communities that had been treated for 3 years in the past (group 3) versus just 1 year in the past (group 4) (fold change 1.00, 95% CI 0.78 to 2.35, P.sub.adj = 0.52). We also found no significant differences for beta-lactams or other antibiotic classes. The main limitations of our study were the absence of phenotypic characterization of resistance, no complete placebo arm, and no monitoring outside of Niger limiting generalizability. Conclusions In this study, we observed that mass azithromycin distribution for childhood mortality among preschool children in Niger increased macrolide resistance determinants in the gut but that resistance may plateau after 2 to 3 years of treatment. Co-selection to other classes needs to be monitored. Trial registration NCT02047981 https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02047981.

Author(s): Ali Sié 1,2,*, Mamadou Ouattara 1, Mamadou Bountogo 1, Clarisse Dah 1, Thierry Ouedraogo 1, Valentin Boudo 1, Elodie Lebas 2, Huiyu Hu 2, Benjamin F. Arnold 2,3,4, Kieran [...], Background Antibiotic use during early infancy has been linked to childhood obesity in high-income countries. We evaluated whether a single oral dose of azithromycin administered during infant-well visits led to changes in infant growth outcomes at 6 months of age in a setting with a high prevalence of undernutrition in rural Burkina Faso. Methods and findings Infants were enrolled from September 25, 2019, until October 22, 2022, in a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate the efficacy of a single oral dose of azithromycin (20 mg/kg) compared to placebo when administered during well-child visits for prevention of infant mortality. The trial found no evidence of a difference in the primary endpoint. This paper presents prespecified secondary anthropometric endpoints including weight gain (g/day), height change (mm/day), weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ), weight-for-length Z-score (WLZ), length-for-age Z-score (LAZ), and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC). Infants were eligible for the trial if they were between 5 and 12 weeks of age, able to orally feed, and their families were planning to remain in the study area for the duration of the study. Anthropometric measurements were collected at enrollment (5 to 12 weeks of age) and 6 months of age. Among 32,877 infants enrolled in the trial, 27,298 (83%) were followed and had valid anthropometric measurements at 6 months of age. We found no evidence of a difference in weight gain (mean difference 0.03 g/day, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.12 to 0.18), height change (mean difference 0.004 mm/day, 95% CI -0.05 to 0.06), WAZ (mean difference -0.004 SD, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.02), WLZ (mean difference 0.001 SD, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.03), LAZ (mean difference -0.005 SD, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.02), or MUAC (mean difference 0.01 cm, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.04). The primary limitation of the trial was that measurements were only collected at enrollment and 6 months of age, precluding assessment of shorter-term or long-term changes in growth. Conclusions Single-dose azithromycin does not appear to affect weight and height outcomes when administered during early infancy. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03676764

Background: Trachoma programs use the indicator trachomatous inflammation-—follicular (TF) to monitor indication for and response to treatment for trachoma at the district level. Alternative indicators, including serologic markers, are increasingly being evaluated for trachoma surveillance. We evaluated seroprevalence of IgG antibodies to the Pgp3 antigen in two districts in Maradi, Niger thought to have low TF prevalence. Methods: Data were collected as part of the baseline assessment of the Azithromycin Reduction to Reach Elimination of Trachoma (ARRET) trial in September 2021. A random sample of 80 communities was selected from Mayahi and Guidan Roumdji districts, both of which had TF prevalence <20% at their most recent trachoma impact survey in 2018. A random sample of 50 children per community was sampled. We collected field grades, conjunctival swabs for processing PCR for ocular Chlamydia trachomatis, and dried blood spots for serologic assessment. Results: Of 3,994 children sampled in 80 communities, 49% were female and median age was 4 years. Overall TF prevalence was 4.6% (95% CI 3.5 to 5.8%) and trachomatous inflammation—intense (TI) prevalence was 0.6% (95% 0.3 to 0.9%). The prevalence of ocular chlamydia was 0.03% (95% CI 0.08%). Seroprevalence for Pgp3 antibodies was 6.3% (95% CI 5.5 to 7.1%) in 1–9-year-olds and 3.7% (95% CI 2.9 to 4.4%) in 1–5-year-olds. TF and Pgp3 seroprevalence were better correlated in 1–5-year-olds (correlation coefficient 0.29) compared to 1–9-year-olds (correlation coefficient 0.09). Conclusions: In this low trachoma prevalence setting in Niger, seroprevalence of antibodies to Pgp3 were consistent with little ongoing transmission of C. trachomatis. Author summary: Trachoma is the leading cause of infectious blindness globally and is caused by the bacteria Chlamydia trachomatis. Trachoma programs use the indicator trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) to monitor the progress of trachoma control efforts in endemic regions. However, TF is an imperfect indicator of trachoma transmission, and alternative indicators may be useful for monitoring trachoma. We evaluated the prevalence of TF, C. trachomatis as measured by PCR, and serologic markers of trachoma in an area of Niger with low prevalence of TF. We found little evidence of ongoing transmission of C. trachomatis, as evidenced by low prevalence of C. trachomatis and low seroprevalence of trachoma markers, suggesting that ongoing antibiotic distribution for trachoma may not be required in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Promotion of facial cleanliness is recommended for the elimination of blinding trachoma, largely because of observational studies that have found an association between various measures of facial uncleanliness and trachoma. However, when a field grader assesses both facial cleanliness and trachoma, associations may be biased. Assessment of photographs of the face and conjunctiva by masked graders may provide a less biased estimate of the relationship between facial cleanliness and trachoma. Methods: Face photographs, conjunctival photographs, and conjunctival swabs were obtained on a random sample of 0–9-year-old children from each of 40 communities in Amhara region, Ethiopia. Face photographs were assessed for the presence of seven measures of an unclean face (i.e., wet nasal discharge, dry nasal discharge, wet ocular discharge, dry ocular discharge, food, dust/dirt, and flies) by three independent masked photo-graders. Conjunctival photographs were similarly graded in a masked fashion for signs of clinically active trachoma. Conjunctival swabs were processed for Chlamydia trachomatis DNA. Results: Of 2073 children with complete data, 808 (39%) had evidence of clinically active trachoma, 150 (7%) had evidence of ocular chlamydia infection, and 2524 (91%) had at least one measure of an unclean face. Dry ocular discharge had the strongest association with clinically active trachoma (age- and sex-adjusted prevalence ratio [PR] 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–1.6) and ocular chlamydia infection (PR 1.9, 95%CI 1.3–2.9), although significant associations were observed between each of the measures of facial uncleanliness and trachoma. Conclusions: Masked assessment of face and conjunctival photographs confirmed prior observational studies that have noted associations between various measures of facial uncleanliness and trachoma. The causal relationship between facial uncleanliness and trachoma is unclear since many features used to measure facial cleanliness (e.g., ocular discharge, nasal discharge, and flies) could be consequences of antecedent ocular chlamydia infection. Trial registration: NCT02754583, clinicaltrials.gov. Author summary: We graded face and eye photographs from children in Ethiopia to characterize the relationship between seven measures of an unclean face and several trachoma outcomes. Dry ocular discharge had the strongest associations with trachoma outcomes, and there was a dose-dependent relationship between the seven facial uncleanliness measures and trachoma. Moreover, using a composite measure of facial uncleanliness, such as the presence of nasal discharge, ocular discharge, or flies, had even stronger associations with trachoma. However, it is difficult to determine the importance of these measures of facial uncleanliness as risk factors for trachoma since ocular chlamydia infection can cause ocular discharge and potentially nasal discharge, each of which may in turn attract flies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Author(s): Ahmed M. Arzika 1, Ramatou Maliki 1, Nameywa Boubacar 1, Salissou Kane 1, Sun Y. Cotter 2, Elodie Lebas 2, Catherine Cook 2, Robin L. Bailey 3, Sheila K. [...], Background Mass azithromycin distributions have been shown to reduce mortality in preschool children, although the factors mediating this mortality reduction are not clear. This study was performed to determine whether mass distribution of azithromycin, which has modest antimalarial activity, reduces the community burden of malaria. Methods and findings In a cluster-randomized trial conducted from 23 November 2014 until 31 July 2017, 30 rural communities in Niger were randomized to 2 years of biannual mass distributions of either azithromycin (20 mg/kg oral suspension) or placebo to children aged 1 to 59 months. Participants, field staff, and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. The primary malaria outcome was the community prevalence of parasitemia on thick blood smear, assessed in a random sample of children from each community at study visits 12 and 24 months after randomization. Analyses were performed in an intention-to-treat fashion. At the baseline visit, a total of 1,695 children were enumerated in the 15 azithromycin communities, and 3,029 children were enumerated in the 15 placebo communities. No communities were lost to follow-up. The mean prevalence of malaria parasitemia at baseline was 8.9% (95% CI 5.1%-15.7%; 52 of 552 children across all communities) in the azithromycin-treated group and 6.7% (95% CI 4.0%-12.6%; 36 of 542 children across all communities) in the placebo-treated group. In the prespecified primary analysis, parasitemia was lower in the azithromycin-treated group at month 12 (mean prevalence 8.8%, 95% CI 5.1%-14.3%; 51 of 551 children across all communities) and month 24 (mean 3.5%, 95% CI 1.9%-5.5%; 21 of 567 children across all communities) than it was in the placebo-treated group at month 12 (mean 15.3%, 95% CI 10.8%-20.6%; 81 of 548 children across all communities) and month 24 (mean 4.8%, 95% CI 3.3%-6.4%; 28 of 592 children across all communities) (P = 0.02). Communities treated with azithromycin had approximately half the odds of parasitemia compared to those treated with placebo (odds ratio [OR] 0.54, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.97). Parasite density was lower in the azithromycin group than the placebo group at 12 and 24 months (square root-transformed outcome; density estimates were 7,540 parasites/[mu]l lower [95% CI -350 to -12,550 parasites/[mu]l; P = 0.02] at a mean parasite density of 17,000, as was observed in the placebo arm). No significant difference in hemoglobin was observed between the 2 treatment groups at 12 and 24 months (mean 0.34 g/dL higher in the azithromycin arm, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.75 g/dL; P = 0.10). No serious adverse events were reported in either group, and among children aged 1 to 5 months, the most commonly reported nonserious adverse events (i.e., diarrhea, vomiting, and rash) were less common in the azithromycin-treated communities. Limitations of the trial include the timing of the treatments and monitoring visits, both of which took place before the peak malaria season, as well as the uncertain generalizability to areas with different malaria transmission dynamics. Conclusions Mass azithromycin distributions were associated with a reduced prevalence of malaria parasitemia in this trial, suggesting one possible mechanism for the mortality benefit observed with this intervention. Trial registration The trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02048007).

Author(s): Jeremy D. Keenan 1,2,*, Zerihun Tadesse 3, Sintayehu Gebresillasie 3, Ayalew Shiferaw 3, Mulat Zerihun 3, Paul M. Emerson 4, Kelly Callahan 4, Sun Y. Cotter 1, Nicole E. [...], Background The World Health Organization recommends annual mass azithromycin administration in communities with at least 10% prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children, with further treatment depending on reassessment after 3-5 years. However, the effect of stopping mass azithromycin distribution after multiple rounds of treatment is not well understood. Here, we report the results of a cluster-randomized trial where communities that had received 4 years of treatments were then randomized to continuation or discontinuation of treatment. Methods and findings In all, 48 communities with 3,938 children aged 0-9 years at baseline in northern Ethiopia had received 4 years of annual or twice yearly mass azithromycin distribution as part of the TANA I trial. We randomized these communities to either continuation or discontinuation of treatment. Individuals in the communities in the continuation arm were offered either annual or twice yearly distribution of a single directly observed dose of oral azithromycin. The primary outcome was community prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection in a random sample of children aged 0-9 years, 36 months after baseline. We also assessed the change from baseline to 36 months in ocular chlamydia prevalence within each arm. We compared 36-month ocular chlamydia prevalence in communities randomized to continuation versus discontinuation in a model adjusting for baseline ocular chlamydia prevalence. A secondary prespecified analysis assessed the rate of change over time in ocular chlamydia prevalence between arms. In the continuation arm, mean antibiotic coverage was greater than 90% at all time points. In the discontinuation arm, the mean prevalence of infection in children aged 0-9 years increased from 8.3% (95% CI 4.2% to 12.4%) at 0 months to 14.7% (95% CI 8.7% to 20.8%, P = 0.04) at 36 months. Ocular chlamydia prevalence in communities where mass azithromycin distribution was continued was 7.2% (95% CI 3.3% to 11.0%) at baseline and 6.6% (95% CI 1.1% to 12.0%, P = 0.64) at 36 months. The 36-month prevalence of ocular chlamydia was significantly lower in communities continuing treatment compared with those discontinuing treatment (P = 0.03). Limitations of the study include uncertain generalizability outside of trachoma hyperendemic regions. Conclusions In this study, ocular chlamydia infection rebounded after 4 years of periodic mass azithromycin distribution. Continued distributions did not completely eliminate infection in all communities or meet WHO control goals, although they did prevent resurgence. Trial registration This study was prospectively registered at clinicaltrials.gov (clinicaltrials.gov NCT01202331).

Background: The chlamydial major outer membrane protein, encoded by the ompA gene, is a primary target for chlamydial vaccine research. However, human studies of ompA-specific immunity are limited, and prior studies have been limited in differentiating re-infection from persistent infection. The purpose of this study was to assess whether children living in trachoma-endemic communities with re-infections of ocular chlamydia were more likely to be infected with a different or similar genovar. Methodology and findings: The study included 21 communities from a trachoma-hyperendemic area of Ethiopia that had been treated with a mass azithromycin distribution for trachoma. Conjunctival swabbing was offered to all children younger than 5 years of age at baseline (i.e., pre-treatment), and then at follow-up visits 2 and 6 months later. Swabs were subjected to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect C. trachomatis. A random sample of 359 PCR-positive swabs, stratified by study visit and study community, was chosen for ompA sequencing. In addition, ompA sequencing was performed on all swabs of 24 children who experienced chlamydial re-infection (i.e., positive chlamydial test before treatment, negative test 2 months following mass distribution of azithromycin, and again a positive test 6 months post-treatment). ompA sequencing was successful for 351 of 359 swabs of the random sample and 44 of 48 swabs of the re-infection sample. In the random sample, ompA types clustered within households more than would be expected by chance. Among the 21 re-infected children with complete ompA data, 14 had the same ompA type before and after treatment. Conclusion: The high frequency of ompA concordance suggests incomplete genovar-specific protective immunity and the need for multiple antigens as vaccine targets. Author summary: Trachoma is the world's leading infectious cause of blindness. Periodic mass azithromycin distributions have not resulted in elimination. Re-infection is thought to be an important barrier to elimination, but studies of serovar- or genovar-specific immunity and re-infection with ocular Chlamydia trachomatis have been limited. The present study investigated chlamydial genotypes in children who were infected with ocular chlamydia before azithromycin treatment and were confirmed to have cleared the infection 2 months later, but then were again infected at 6 months. The majority of re-infections were caused by the same ompA strain that was carried pre-treatment, which suggests poor protective immunity to chlamydia. The ompA types clustered by household, suggesting members of the same household as a source of re-infection. These findings could inform future mass treatment strategies and vaccine development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Efficient identification of communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia to assess this hypothesis. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0–5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment, in the context of recent mass drug administration (MDA), to 29% by month 36, following three years without MDA. At baseline, correlation between seroprevalence and Ct infection was stronger among children 0–5 years old (ρ = 0.77) than children 6–9 years old (ρ = 0.48), and stronger than the correlation between active trachoma and Ct infection (0-5y ρ = 0.56; 6-9y ρ = 0.40). Seroprevalence was the strongest concurrent predictor of infection prevalence at month 36 among children 0–5 years old (cross-validated R2 = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58–0.85), though predictive performance declined substantially with increasing temporal lag between predictor and outcome measurements. Geospatial variables, a spatial Gaussian process, and stacked ensemble machine learning did not meaningfully improve predictions. Serological markers among children 0–5 years old may be an objective tool for identifying communities with high levels of ocular Ct infections, but accurate, future prediction in the context of changing transmission remains an open challenge. Author summary: Trachoma, one of the leading infectious causes of blindness globally, is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. District-level estimates of active trachoma among children 1–9 years old are currently used to guide control programs and assess elimination. However, active trachoma, based on diagnosis of clinical signs, is a subjective indicator. Serological markers present an objective, scalable alternative that could be measured in integrated platforms. In a hyperendemic region, community-level seroprevalence aligned more closely with concurrent infection prevalence than active trachoma. The correlation between seroprevalence and infection prevalence was stronger among 0–5-year-olds compared to 6–9-year-olds and was consistent over a three-year period of increasing transmission. Serosurveillance among children 0–5 years old may be a promising monitoring strategy to identify communities with the highest burdens of ocular chlamydial infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Acanthamoeba keratitis is challenging to treat and thought to result in poor outcomes, but very few comparative studies exist to assess whether ulcers caused by Acanthamoeba are worse than those caused by bacteria or fungus. Methods: In a retrospective cohort study, all cases of smear- or culture-proven Acanthamoeba keratitis diagnosed from January 2006 to June 2011 at an eye hospital in South India were identified from the microbiology database. Random samples of the same number of cases of bacterial and fungal keratitis, matched by year, were identified from the same database in order to compare outcomes between the three types of organism. The main outcomes were the time until the following events: re-epithelialization, discontinuation of antimicrobials, perforation/keratoplasty, elevated intraocular pressure, and new cataract. Results: The median time until re-epithelialization was 113 days for Acanthamoeba keratitis, 30 days for fungal keratitis, and 25 days for bacterial keratitis, and the median time until discontinuation of antimicrobial therapy was 100 days for Acanthamoeba keratitis, 49 days for fungal keratitis, and 40 days for bacterial keratitis. Compared to the other two organisms, Acanthamoeba ulcers took significantly longer to re-epithelialize (adjusted HR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3 to 0.6 relative to bacterial ulcers and HR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2 to 0.5 relative to fungal ulcers; overall p<0.001) and had significantly longer courses of antimicrobials (adjusted HR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2 to 0.6 relative to bacterial ulcers and HR 0.5, 95%CI 0.3 to 0.8 relative to fungal ulcers; overall p<0.001). No statistically significant difference was observed between the three organisms for the other time-to-event outcomes. Conclusions: Acanthamoeba keratitis was more difficult to treat and had worse clinical outcomes than bacterial or fungal ulcers, highlighting the lack of adequate treatment regimens for this infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The MORDOR study, a masked, community-level randomized clinical trial conducted in Niger, Malawi and Tanzania (2015 to 2017), showed that biannual administration of single-dose azithromycin to preschool children reduced all-cause mortality. We sought to evaluate its impact on causes of death in children aged 1–59 months in Tanzania. A random sampling of 614 communities was conducted in Kilosa District, Tanzania, with simple random assignment of communities to receive either azithromycin or placebo. In these communities, a census was carried out every 6 months and children aged 1–59 months received biannual (every 6 months), single-dose azithromycin (~20mg/kg) or placebo depending on community assignment, over a 2-year period. Mortality was determined at the time of the biannual census. For child deaths, a verbal autopsy was performed to ascertain the cause using a standardized diagnostic classification. A total of 190- (0.58 /100 person-years) and 200 deaths (0.59/100 person-years) were reported in the azithromycin and placebo arms, respectively. Malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea, accounted for 71% and 68% of deaths in the respective arms. Overall, the mortality was not different by treatment arm, nor were the distribution of causes of death after adjusting for community clustering. The cause-specific mortality for diarrhea/pneumonia was no different over time. In children aged 1–5 months, 32 deaths occurred in the placebo arm and 25 deaths occurred in the azithromycin arm; 20 (62.5%) deaths in the placebo- and 10 (40%) in the azithromycin arm were attributed to diarrhea or pneumonia. Neither differences in the number of deaths nor the diarrhea/pneumonia attribution was statistically significant after adjusting for community clustering. In conclusion, azithromycin was not associated with a significant decline in deaths by specific causes compared to placebo. The non-significant lower rates of diarrhea or pneumonia in children <6 months who received azithromycin merit further investigation in high-mortality settings. Trial registration:NCT02048007. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends continuing azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) for trachoma until endemic regions drop below 5% prevalence of active trachoma in children aged 1–9 years. Azithromycin targets the ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis that cause trachoma. Regions with low prevalence of active trachoma may have little if any ocular chlamydia, and, thus, may not benefit from azithromycin treatment. Understanding what happens to active trachoma and ocular chlamydia prevalence after stopping azithromycin MDA may improve future treatment decisions. We systematically reviewed published evidence for community prevalence of both active trachoma and ocular chlamydia after cessation of azithromycin distribution. We searched electronic databases for all peer-reviewed studies published before May 2020 that included at least 2 post-MDA surveillance surveys of ocular chlamydia and/or the active trachoma marker, trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) prevalence. We assessed trends in the prevalence of both indicators over time after stopping azithromycin MDA. Of 140 identified studies, 21 met inclusion criteria and were used for qualitative synthesis. Post-MDA, we found a gradual increase in ocular chlamydia infection prevalence over time, while TF prevalence generally gradually declined. Ocular chlamydia infection may be a better measurement tool compared to TF for detecting trachoma recrudescence in communities after stopping azithromycin MDA. These findings may guide future trachoma treatment and surveillance efforts. Author summary: Trachoma, caused by repeated infections with ocular Chlamydia trachomatis, substantially contributes to the global burden of blindness. Community-wide distribution of the oral antibiotic azithromycin in trachoma endemic regions has contributed to significant decline in the prevalence of both ocular chlamydia infection and clinical findings of active trachoma. After azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) stops, both ocular chlamydia and active trachoma can return. Our systematic review finds that ocular chlamydia infection may return to communities faster than signs of active trachoma, which may help better understand the utility of different trachoma indicators for post-MDA surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Locally tailored interventions for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are becoming increasingly important for ensuring that the World Health Organization (WHO) goals for control and elimination are reached. Mathematical models, such as those developed by the NTD Modelling Consortium, are able to offer recommendations on interventions but remain constrained by the data currently available. Data collection for NTDs needs to be strengthened as better data are required to indirectly inform transmission in an area. Addressing specific data needs will improve our modelling recommendations, enabling more accurate tailoring of interventions and assessment of their progress. In this collection, we discuss the data needs for several NTDs, specifically gambiense human African trypanosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis. Similarities in the data needs for these NTDs highlight the potential for integration across these diseases and where possible, a wider spectrum of diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Biannual azithromycin distribution has been shown to reduce child mortality as well as increase antimicrobial resistance. Targeting distributions to vulnerable subgroups such as malnourished children is one approach to reaching those at the highest risk of mortality while limiting selection for resistance. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether the effect of azithromycin on mortality differs by nutritional status.Methods and Findings: A large simple trial randomized communities in Niger to receive biannual distributions of azithromycin or placebo to children 1-59 months old over a 2-year timeframe. In exploratory subgroup analyses, the effect of azithromycin distribution on child mortality was assessed for underweight subgroups using weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) thresholds of -2 and -3. Modification of the effect of azithromycin on mortality by underweight status was examined on the additive and multiplicative scale. Between December 2014 and August 2017, 27,222 children 1-11 months of age from 593 communities had weight measured at their first study visit. Overall, the average age among included children was 4.7 months (interquartile range [IQR] 3-6), 49.5% were female, 23% had a WAZ < -2, and 10% had a WAZ < -3. This analysis included 523 deaths in communities assigned to azithromycin and 661 deaths in communities assigned to placebo. The mortality rate was lower in communities assigned to azithromycin than placebo overall, with larger reductions among children with lower WAZ: -12.6 deaths per 1,000 person-years (95% CI -18.5 to -6.9, P < 0.001) overall, -17.0 (95% CI -28.0 to -7.0, P = 0.001) among children with WAZ < -2, and -25.6 (95% CI -42.6 to -9.6, P = 0.003) among children with WAZ < -3. No statistically significant evidence of effect modification was demonstrated by WAZ subgroup on either the additive or multiplicative scale (WAZ < -2, additive: 95% CI -6.4 to 16.8, P = 0.34; WAZ < -2, multiplicative: 95% CI 0.8 to 1.4, P = 0.50, WAZ < -3, additive: 95% CI -2.2 to 31.1, P = 0.14; WAZ < -3, multiplicative: 95% CI 0.9 to 1.7, P = 0.26). The estimated number of deaths averted with azithromycin was 388 (95% CI 214 to 574) overall, 116 (95% CI 48 to 192) among children with WAZ < -2, and 76 (95% CI 27 to 127) among children with WAZ < -3. Limitations include the availability of a single weight measurement on only the youngest children and the lack of power to detect small effect sizes with this rare outcome. Despite the trial's large size, formal tests for effect modification did not reach statistical significance at the 95% confidence level.Conclusions: Although mortality rates were higher in the underweight subgroups, this study was unable to demonstrate that nutritional status modified the effect of biannual azithromycin distribution on mortality. Even if the effect were greater among underweight children, a nontargeted intervention would result in the greatest absolute number of deaths averted.Trial Registration: The MORDOR trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov NCT02047981. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: After approximately 5 years of SAFE (surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness, environmental improvement) interventions for trachoma, hyperendemic (trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) ≥30%) districts remained in Amhara, Ethiopia. This study's aim was to characterize the epidemiology of Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection and load among pre-school aged children living under the SAFE strategy. Methods: Conjunctival swabs from a population-based sample of children aged 1–5 years collected between 2011 and 2015 were assayed to provide Ct infection data from 4 endemic zones (comprised of 58 districts). Ct load was determined using a calibration curve. Children were graded for TF and trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI). Results: 7,441 children were swabbed in 4 zones. TF and TI prevalence were 39.9% (95% confidence Interval [CI]: 37.5%, 42.4%), and 9.2% (95% CI: 8.1%, 10.3%) respectively. Ct infection prevalence was 6.0% (95% CI: 5.0%, 7.2%). Infection was highest among children aged 2 to 4 years (6.6%-7.0%). Approximately 10% of infection occurred among children aged 1 year. Ct load decreased with age (P = 0.002), with the highest loads observed in children aged 1 year (P = 0.01) vs. aged 5 years. Participants with TF (P = 0.20) and TI (P<0.01) had loads greater than individuals without active trachoma. Conclusions: In this hyperendemic setting, it appears that the youngest children may contribute in meaningful ways towards persistent active trachoma. Author summary: Current World Health Organization recommendations for the treatment of trachoma state that hyperendemic districts, districts with a 30% or greater prevalence of the clinical sign trachomatous inflammation-follicular, should receive 5 years of annual mass drug administration with antibiotic to target Chlamydia trachomatis as part of the surgery, antibiotic, facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement (SAFE) strategy. After approximately 5 years of SAFE in Amhara region, Ethiopia, however, many districts remained hyperendemic as measured by observed clinical signs. Given the persistent nature of trachoma in Amhara, a better understanding of the nature of actual Chlamydia trachomatis infection, including the distribution of infectious load within children, would be helpful for Amhara and for programs serving other hyperendemic regions. From 2011 to 2015 nearly 7,500 ocular swabs from 4 endemic zones were collected to monitor Chlamydia trachomatis following 5 years of SAFE among children aged 1 to 5 years, the group most at risk for infection. It was determined that pre-school age children still harbored considerable infection. The youngest children had the highest infection prevalence and highest infectious load burden, and therefore likely contributed in meaningful ways towards the persistent active trachoma observed in some districts. Treatment regimens focused on the youngest children or children harboring the highest infectious loads should be explored to help countries experiencing persistent trachoma reach elimination as a public health problem faster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Antibiotic selection pressure is thought to be an important mechanism of selecting for antibiotic resistance in populations [1]. High antibiotic use is correlated with antibiotic resistance in ecological studies [...], Background: It is widely thought that widespread antibiotic use selects for community antibiotic resistance, though this has been difficult to prove in the setting of a community-randomized clinical trial. In this study, we used a randomized clinical trial design to assess whether macrolide resistance was higher in communities treated with mass azithromycin for trachoma, compared to untreated control communities. Methods and Findings: In a cluster-randomized trial for trachoma control in Ethiopia, 12 communities were randomized to receive mass azithromycin treatment of children aged 1-10 years at months 0, 3, 6, and 9. Twelve control communities were randomized to receive no antibiotic treatments until the conclusion of the study. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from randomly selected children in the treated group at baseline and month 12, and in the control group at month 12. Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed on Streptococcus pneumoniae isolated from the swabs using Etest strips. In the treated group, the mean prevalence of azithromycin resistance among all monitored children increased from 3.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8%-8.9%) at baseline, to 46.9% (37.5%-57.5%) at month 12 (p = 0.003). In control communities, azithromycin resistance was 9.2% (95% CI 6.7%-13.3%) at month 12, significantly lower than the treated group (p Conclusions: This cluster-randomized clinical trial demonstrated that compared to untreated control communities, nasopharyngeal pneumococcal resistance to macrolides was significantly higher in communities randomized to intensive azithromycin treatment. Mass azithromycin distributions were given more frequently than currently recommended by the World Health Organization's trachoma program. Azithromycin use in this setting did not select for resistance to penicillins, which remain the drug of choice for pneumococcal infections. Trialregistration: http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00322972 Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Background: As of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has occurred, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on the current outbreak, with case-count time series from prior outbreaks, to project the short-term and long-term course of the outbreak. Methods: For short- and long-term projections, we modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process that assumes gradually quenching transmission rates estimated from past EVD outbreaks, with outbreak trajectories conditioned on agreement with the course of the current outbreak, and with multiple levels of vaccination coverage. We used two regression models to estimate similar projection periods. Short- and long-term projections were estimated using negative binomial autoregression and Theil-Sen regression, respectively. We also used Gott’s rule to estimate a baseline minimum-information projection. We then constructed an ensemble of forecasts to be compared and recorded for future evaluation against final outcomes. From August 20, 2018 to February 25, 2019, short-term model projections were validated against known case counts. Results: During validation of short-term projections, from one week to four weeks, we found models consistently scored higher on shorter-term forecasts. Based on case counts as of February 25, the stochastic model projected a median case count of 933 cases by February 18 (95% prediction interval: 872–1054) and 955 cases by March 4 (95% prediction interval: 874–1105), while the auto-regression model projects median case counts of 889 (95% prediction interval: 876–933) and 898 (95% prediction interval: 877–983) cases for those dates, respectively. Projected median final counts range from 953 to 1,749. Although the outbreak is already larger than all past Ebola outbreaks other than the 2013–2016 outbreak of over 26,000 cases, our models do not project that it is likely to grow to that scale. The stochastic model estimates that vaccination coverage in this outbreak is lower than reported in its trial setting in Sierra Leone. Conclusions: Our projections are concentrated in a range up to about 300 cases beyond those already reported. While a catastrophic outbreak is not projected, it is not ruled out, and prevention and vigilance are warranted. Prospective validation of our models in real time allowed us to generate more accurate short-term forecasts, and this process may prove useful for future real-time short-term forecasting. We estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen under target levels of 62% coverage due to contact tracing and vaccination, and this model estimate may offer a surrogate indicator for the outbreak response challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mass azithromycin distributions have been shown to reduce mortality among pre-school children in sub-Saharan Africa. It is unclear what mediates this mortality reduction, but one possibility is that antibiotics function as growth promoters for young children. Methods and findings: 24 rural Ethiopian communities that had received biannual mass azithromycin distributions over the previous four years were enrolled in a parallel-group, cluster-randomized trial. Communities were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either continuation of biannual oral azithromycin (20mg/kg for children, 1 g for adults) or to no programmatic antibiotics over the 36 months of the study period. All community members 6 months and older were eligible for the intervention. The primary outcome was ocular chlamydia; height and weight were measured as secondary outcomes on children less than 60 months of age at months 12 and 36. Study participants were not masked; anthropometrists were not informed of the treatment allocation. Anthropometric measurements were collected for 282 children aged 0–36 months at the month 12 assessment and 455 children aged 0–59 months at the month 36 assessment, including 207 children who had measurements at both time points. After adjusting for age and sex, children were slightly but not significantly taller in the biannually treated communities (84.0 cm, 95%CI 83.2–84.8, in the azithromycin-treated communities vs. 83.7 cm, 95%CI 82.9–84.5, in the untreated communities; mean difference 0.31 cm, 95%CI -0.85 to 1.47, P = 0.60). No adverse events were reported. Conclusions: Periodic mass azithromycin distributions for trachoma did not demonstrate a strong impact on childhood growth. Trial registration: The TANA II trial was registered on clinicaltrials.gov . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize the Thiel-Sen regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27. We used these techniques on probable and confirmed case counts with and without inclusion of suspected cases. Probabilistic projections were scored against the actual outbreak size of 54 EVD cases, using a log-likelihood score. With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. With the Thiel-Sen regression model, the median outbreak size was estimated to be 65.0 probable and confirmed cases (95% PI: 48.8, 119.7). Among our three mathematical models, the stochastic model with suspected cases and high vaccine coverage predicted total outbreak sizes closest to the true outcome. Relatively simple mathematical models updated in real time may inform outbreak response teams with projections of total outbreak size and duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/aims: Trachoma programs base treatment decisions on the community prevalence of the clinical signs of trachoma, assessed by direct examination of the conjunctiva. Automated assessment could be more standardized and more cost-effective. We tested the hypothesis that an automated algorithm could classify eyelid photographs better than chance. Methods: A total of 1,656 field-collected conjunctival images were obtained from clinical trial participants in Niger and Ethiopia. Images were scored for trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) and trachomatous inflammation—intense (TI) according to the simplified World Health Organization grading system by expert raters. We developed an automated procedure for image enhancement followed by application of a convolutional neural net classifier for TF and separately for TI. One hundred images were selected for testing TF and TI, and these images were not used for training. Results: The agreement score for TF and TI tasks for the automated algorithm relative to expert graders was κ = 0.44 (95% CI: 0.26 to 0.62, P < 0.001) and κ = 0.69 (95% CI: 0.55 to 0.84, P < 0.001), respectively. Discussion: For assessing the clinical signs of trachoma, a convolutional neural net performed well above chance when tested against expert consensus. Further improvements in specificity may render this method suitable for field use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Program decision-making for trachoma elimination currently relies on conjunctival clinical signs. Antibody tests may provide additional information on the epidemiology of trachoma, particularly in regions where it is disappearing or elimination targets have been met. Methods: A cluster-randomized trial of mass azithromycin distribution strategies for trachoma elimination was conducted over three years in a mesoendemic region of Niger. Dried blood spots were collected from a random sample of children aged 1–5 years in each of 24 study communities at 36 months after initiation of the intervention. A multiplex bead assay was used to test for antibodies to two Chlamydia trachomatis antigens, Pgp3 and CT694. We compared seropositivity to either antigen to clinical signs of active trachoma (trachomatous inflammation—follicular [TF] and trachomatous inflammation—intense [TI]) at the individual and cluster level, and to ocular chlamydia prevalence at the community level. Results: Of 988 children with antibody data, TF prevalence was 7.8% (95% CI 6.1 to 9.5) and TI prevalence was 1.6% (95% CI 0.9 to 2.6). The overall prevalence of antibody positivity to Pgp3 was 27.2% (95% CI 24.5 to 30), and to CT694 was 23.7% (95% CI 21 to 26.2). Ocular chlamydia infection prevalence was 5.2% (95% CI 2.8 to 7.6). Seropositivity to Pgp3 and/or CT694 was significantly associated with TF at the individual and community level and with ocular chlamydia infection and TI at the community level. Older children were more likely to be seropositive than younger children. Conclusion: Seropositivity to Pgp3 and CT694 correlates with clinical signs and ocular chlamydia infection in a mesoendemic region of Niger. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mass azithromycin distribution reduces under-5 child mortality. Trachoma control programs currently treat infants aged 6 months and older. Here, we report findings from an infant adverse event survey in 1–5 month olds who received azithromycin as part of a large community-randomized trial in Niger. Methods and principal findings: Active surveillance of infants aged 1–5 months at the time of treatment was conducted in 30 randomly selected communities from within a large cluster randomized trial of biannual mass azithromycin distribution compared to placebo to assess the potential impact on child mortality. We compared the distribution of adverse events reported after treatment among azithromycin-treated versus placebo-treated infants. From January 2015 to February 2018, the caregivers of 1,712 infants were surveyed. Approximately one-third of caregivers reported at least one adverse event (azithromycin: 29.6%, placebo: 34.3%, risk ratio [RR] 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68 to 1.10, P = 0.23). The most commonly reported adverse events included diarrhea (azithromycin: 19.3%, placebo: 28.1%, RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.96, P = 0.03), vomiting (azithromycin: 15.9%, placebo: 21.0%, RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.02, P = 0.07), and skin rash (azithromycin: 12.3%, placebo: 13.6%, RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.37, P = 0.63). No cases of infantile hypertrophic pyloric stenosis were reported. Conclusions: Azithromycin given to infants aged 1–5 months appeared to be safe. Inclusion of younger infants in larger azithromycin-based child mortality or trachoma control programs could be considered if deemed effective. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In many infectious diseases, a core group of individuals plays a disproportionate role in transmission. If these individuals were effectively prevented from transmitting infection, for example with a perfect vaccine, then the disease would disappear in the remainder of the community. No vaccine has yet proven effective against the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. However, repeated treatment with oral azithromycin may be able to prevent individuals from effectively transmitting trachoma. Methodology/Principal findings: Here we assess several methods for identifying a core group for trachoma, assuming varying degrees of knowledge about the transmission process. We determine the minimal core group from a completely specified model, fitted to results from a large Ethiopian trial. We compare this benchmark to a core group that could actually be identified from information available to trachoma programs. For example, determined from the rate of return of infection in a community after mass treatments, or from the equilibrium prevalence of infection. Conclusions/Significance: Sufficient groups are relatively easy for programs to identify, but will likely be larger than the theoretical minimum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen’s Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Face cleanliness is a core component of the SAFE (Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial cleanliness, and Environmental improvements) strategy for trachoma control. Understanding knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors related to face washing may be helpful for designing effective interventions for improving facial cleanliness. Methods: In April 2014, a mixed methods study including focus groups and a quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted in the East Gojjam zone of the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Participants were asked about face washing practices, motivations for face washing, use of soap (which may reduce bacterial load), and fly control strategies. Results: Overall, both knowledge and reported practice of face washing was high. Participants reported they knew that washing their own face and their children’s faces daily was important for hygiene and infection control. Although participants reported high knowledge of the importance of soap for face washing, quantitative data revealed strong variations by community in the use of soap for face washing, ranging from 4.4% to 82.2% of households reporting using soap for face washing. Cost and forgetfulness were cited as barriers to the use of soap for face washing. Keeping flies from landing on children was a commonly cited motivator for regular face washing, as was trachoma prevention. Conclusions: Interventions aiming to improve facial cleanliness for trachoma prevention should focus on habit formation (to address forgetfulness) and address barriers to the use of soap, such as reducing cost. Interventions that focus solely on improving knowledge may not be effective for changing face-washing behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The WHO seeks to control trachoma as a public health problem in endemic areas. Achham District in western Nepal was found to have TF (trachoma follicular) above 20% in a 2006 government survey, triggering 3 annual mass drug administrations finishing in 2010. Here we assess the level of control that has been achieved using surveillance for clinical disease, ocular chlamydia trachomatis infection, and serology for antibodies against chlamydia trachomatis protein antigens. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of children aged 1–9 years in communities in Achham District in early 2014 including clinical examination validated with photographs, conjunctival samples for Chlamydia trachomatis (Amplicor PCR), and serological testing for antibodies against chlamydia trachomatis protein antigens pgp3 and CT694 using the Luminex platform. Findings: In 24 randomly selected communities, the prevalence of trachoma (TF and/or TI) in 1–9 year olds was 3/1124 (0.3%, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.8%), and the prevalence of ocular chlamydia trachomatis infection was 0/1124 (0%, 95% CI 0 to 0.3%). In 18 communities selected because they had the highest prevalence of trachoma in a previous survey, the prevalence of TF and/or TI was 7/716 (1.0%, 95% CI 0.4 to 2.0%) and the prevalence of ocular chlamydia trachomatis infection was 0/716 (0%, 95% CI 0 to 0.5%). In 3 communities selected for serological testing, the prevalence of trachoma was 0/68 (0%, 95% CI 0 to 5.3%), the prevalence of ocular chlamydia trachomatis infection was 0/68 (0%, 95% CI 0 to 0.5%), the prevalence of antibodies against chlamydia trachomatis protein antigen pgp3 was 1/68 (1.5%, 95% CI 0.04% to 7.9%), and the prevalence of antibodies against chlamydia trachomatis protein antigen CT694 was 0/68 (0%, 95% CI 0 to 5.3%). Conclusion/Significance: This previously highly endemic district in Nepal has little evidence of recent clinical disease, chlamydia trachomatis infection, or serological evidence of trachoma, suggesting that epidemiological control has been achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2014–2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. Methods: The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts’ opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank statistic. Findings: Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher’s information. Each individual expert’s forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Interpretation: Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mathematical models predict an exponential distribution of infection prevalence across communities where a disease is disappearing. Trachoma control programs offer an opportunity to test this hypothesis, as the World Health Organization has targeted trachoma for elimination as a public health concern by the year 2020. Local programs may benefit if a single survey could reveal whether infection was headed towards elimination. Using data from a previously-published 2009 survey, we test the hypothesis that Chlamydia trachomatis prevalence across 75 Tanzanian communities where trachoma had been documented to be disappearing is exponentially distributed. Methods/Findings: We fit multiple continuous distributions to the Tanzanian data and found the exponential gave the best approximation. Model selection by Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) suggested the exponential distribution had the most parsimonious fit to the data. Those distributions which do not include the exponential as a special or limiting case had much lower likelihoods of fitting the observed data. 95% confidence intervals for shape parameter estimates of those distributions which do include the exponential as a special or limiting case were consistent with the exponential. Lastly, goodness-of-fit testing was unable to reject the hypothesis that the prevalence data came from an exponential distribution. Conclusions: Models correctly predict that infection prevalence across communities where a disease is disappearing is best described by an exponential distribution. In Tanzanian communities where local control efforts had reduced the clinical signs of trachoma by 80% over 10 years, an exponential distribution gave the best fit to prevalence data. An exponential distribution has a relatively heavy tail, thus occasional high-prevalence communities are to be expected even when infection is disappearing. A single cross-sectional survey may be able to reveal whether elimination efforts are on-track. Author Summary: Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness and the World Health Organization plans to eliminate it as a public health concern worldwide by the year 2020. It can be difficult for local trachoma programs to assess whether disease is headed towards elimination in their area. Mathematical infectious disease models describe that when a disease disappears, its prevalence across communities in that area form an exponential distribution. However, this theorem has never been tested with field data. In this study, we take trachoma prevalence data from Tanzania, in an area where trachoma was known to be disappearing, and find that the prevalence forms an exponential distribution. The implications of this study could be applied to other infectious diseases to provide evidence that prevalence is headed towards elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Antibiotic use on animals demonstrates improved growth regardless of whether or not there is clinical evidence of infectious disease. Antibiotics used for trachoma control may play an unintended benefit of improving child growth. Methodology: In this sub-study of a larger randomized controlled trial, we assess anthropometry of pre-school children in a community-randomized trial of mass oral azithromycin distributions for trachoma in Niger. We measured height, weight, and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in 12 communities randomized to receive annual mass azithromycin treatment of everyone versus 12 communities randomized to receive biannual mass azithromycin treatments for children, 3 years after the initial mass treatment. We collected measurements in 1,034 children aged 6–60 months of age. Principal Findings: We found no difference in the prevalence of wasting among children in the 12 annually treated communities that received three mass azithromycin distributions compared to the 12 biannually treated communities that received six mass azithromycin distributions (odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval = 0.53 to 1.49). Conclusions/Significance: We were unable to demonstrate a statistically significant difference in stunting, underweight, and low MUAC of pre-school children in communities randomized to annual mass azithromycin treatment or biannual mass azithromycin treatment. The role of antibiotics on child growth and nutrition remains unclear, but larger studies and longitudinal trials may help determine any association. Author Summary: Recent studies suggest that antibiotic use could have an effect on growth in humans. Azithromycin is an antibiotic used for trachoma control, and hence, may have an unintended benefit of improving child growth. Niger is a trachoma-endemic country where mass antibiotic distributions for trachoma take place and where malnutrition is widespread among children. In addition, azithromycin may have an effect on common childhood diseases associated with malnutrition, such as diarrhea, pneumonia, and malaria. In a community-randomized trachoma trial in Matameye, Niger, we assessed child growth by measuring height, weight, and mid-upper arm circumference of pre-school children who have received 3 years of annual or biannual mass azithromycin treatment. While these measures were better in the biannually treated communities, the difference was not statistically significant. Thus, further research will help determine the impact of antibiotics on child growth and nutrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical examination of trachoma is used to justify intervention in trachoma-endemic regions. Currently, field graders are certified by determining their concordance with experienced graders using the kappa statistic. Unfortunately, trachoma grading can be highly variable and there are cases where even expert graders disagree (borderline/marginal cases). Prior work has shown that inclusion of borderline cases tends to reduce apparent agreement, as measured by kappa. Here, we confirm those results and assess performance of trainees on these borderline cases by calculating their reliability error, a measure derived from the decomposition of the Brier score. Methods and Findings: We trained 18 field graders using 200 conjunctival photographs from a community-randomized trial in Niger and assessed inter-grader agreement using kappa as well as reliability error. Three experienced graders scored each case for the presence or absence of trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) and trachomatous inflammation - intense (TI). A consensus grade for each case was defined as the one given by a majority of experienced graders. We classified cases into a unanimous subset if all 3 experienced graders gave the same grade. For both TF and TI grades, the mean kappa for trainees was higher on the unanimous subset; inclusion of borderline cases reduced apparent agreement by 15.7% for TF and 12.4% for TI. When we assessed the breakdown of the reliability error, we found that our trainees tended to over-call TF grades and under-call TI grades, especially in borderline cases. Conclusions: The kappa statistic is widely used for certifying trachoma field graders. Exclusion of borderline cases, which even experienced graders disagree on, increases apparent agreement with the kappa statistic. Graders may agree less when exposed to the full spectrum of disease. Reliability error allows for the assessment of these borderline cases and can be used to refine an individual trainee's grading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths, and trachoma are the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases in the world, and each is frequently treated with mass drug administrations. We performed a survey of neglected tropical diseases experts to elicit their opinions on the role of mass drug administrations for the elimination of these infections. Methodology/Principal Findings: We sent an online survey to corresponding authors who had published an article about a neglected tropical disease from 2007 to 2011. Of 825 unique authors who were invited to complete the survey, 365 (44.2%) responded, including 234 (28.4%) who answered questions regarding one of the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases. Respondents had varying opinions about the goals of programmatic activities for their chosen neglected tropical disease, with elimination or eradication identified as the most important goal by 87% of lymphatic filariasis respondents, 66% of onchocerciasis respondents, 55% of trachoma respondents, 24% of schistosomiasis respondents, and 21% of soil-transmitted helminth respondents. Mass drug administrations, other non-medication health measures, and education were generally thought to be more important for elimination than vector control, development of a new tool, or the presence of a secular trend. Drug resistance was thought to be a major limitation of mass drug administrations for all five neglected tropical diseases. Over half of respondents for lymphatic filariasis and trachoma thought that repeated mass drug administrations could eliminate infection within ten years of the initiation of mass treatments. Conclusions/Significance: Respondents for lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, and trachoma were more enthusiastic about the prospects of elimination and eradication than were respondents for schistosomiasis or soil-transmitted helminths. Mass drug administrations were generally believed to be among the most important factors for the success of elimination efforts for each of the five neglected tropical diseases, highlighting the opportunity for integrating drug distributions. Author Summary: Mass drug administrations are used for each of the five most common neglected tropical diseases: lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths, and trachoma. Three of these infections—lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, and trachoma—are officially targeted for elimination, and mass drug administrations play a key role in the elimination plans for each. While progress has been demonstrated for each of these diseases, it is unclear whether researchers of these diseases think that elimination is feasible, or whether mass drug administrations should play an important role given the potential for drug resistance. We performed a survey of neglected tropical diseases experts to assess their opinions on the likelihood of elimination and the role of mass drug administrations for the five most common neglected tropical diseases. Most experts in lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, and trachoma thought elimination was the appropriate goal of treatment programs, whereas most experts in schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths thought that treatment programs were intended to control, but not eliminate, infection. Drug resistance was thought to be a major limitation for each of the infections. Although there were differences between the five infections, mass drug administrations, non-medication health measures, and education were generally thought to be the most important pieces of a control program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Trachoma, caused by ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, is the leading infectious cause of blindess, but its prevalence is now falling in many countries. As the prevalence falls, an increasing proportion of individuals with clinical signs of follicular trachoma (TF) is not infected with C. trachomatis. A recent study in Tanzania suggested that other bacteria may play a role in the persistence of these clinical signs. Methodology/Principal Findings: We examined associations between clinical signs of TF and ocular colonization with four pathogens commonly found in the nasopharnyx, three years after the initiation of mass azithromycin distribution. Children aged 0 to 5 years were randomly selected from 16 Gambian communitites. Both eyes of each child were examined and graded for trachoma according to the World Health Organization (WHO) simplified system. Two swabs were taken from the right eye: one swab was processed for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using the Amplicor test for detection of C. trachomatis DNA and the second swab was processed by routine bacteriology to assay for the presence of viable Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Staphylococcus aureus and Moraxella catarrhalis. Prevalence of TF was 6.2% (96/1538) while prevalence of ocular C. trachomatis infection was 1.0% (16/1538). After adjustment, increased odds of TF were observed in the presence of C. trachomatis (OR = 10.4, 95%CI 1.32–81.2, p = 0.03), S. pneumoniae (OR = 2.14, 95%CI 1.03–4.44, p = 0.04) and H. influenzae (OR = 4.72, 95% CI 1.53–14.5, p = 0.01). Conclusions/Significance: Clinical signs of TF can persist in communities even when ocular C. trachomatis infection has been controlled through mass azithromycin distribution. In these settings, TF may be associated with ocular colonization with bacteria commonly carried in the nasopharnyx. This may affect the interpretation of impact surveys and the determinations of thresholds for discontinuing mass drug administration. Author Summary: Trachoma, the world's leading infectious cause of blindness, is caused by ocular infection with the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis. In low-prevalence settings and following mass treatment campaigns, clinically active follicular trachoma (TF) can be found in the absence of C. trachomatis infection. We carried out this study to investigate associations between ocular carriage of non-chlamydial pathogens and a clinical diagnosis of TF following a mass treatment campaign in The Gambia. We found that children who carried Streptococcus pneumoniae or Haemophilus influenza in their eyes were more likely to have been diagnosed with TF than children who did not carry these pathogens. In The Gambia, non-chlamydial pathogens may be inducing or exacerbating TF in the absence of C. trachomatis infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trachoma programs have dramatically reduced the prevalence of the ocular chlamydia that cause the disease. Some have hypothesized that immunity to the infection may be reduced because of program success in reducing the incidence of infection, and transmission may then increase. Longitudinal studies of multiple communities would be necessary to test this hypothesis. Here, we quantify transmission using an estimated basic reproduction number based on 32 communities during the first, second, and third years of an antibiotic treatment program. We found that there is little to no increase in the basic reproduction number over time. The estimated linear trend in the basic reproduction number, , was found to be −0.025 per year, 95% CI −0.167 to 0.117 per year. We are unable to find evidence supporting any loss of immunity over the course of a 3-year program. This is encouraging, as it allows the possibility that repeated mass antibiotic distributions may eliminate infection from even the most severely affected areas. Author Summary: Trachoma, caused by repeated infections by the ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis, is the most common infectious cause of blindness in the world. Treatment for trachoma includes mass azithromycin treatments to the entire community. To reduce the prevalence of infection, the World Health Organization (WHO) advocates at least three annual community-wide distributions of oral antibiotics in affected areas, with further mass treatments based on the prevalence of trachoma. Trachoma programs have dramatically reduced the community prevalence of infection, and some have argued that lowered prevalence of infection may lead to reductions in immunity, and that less immunity may in turn lead to increased transmission from what infection remains. Here, we used a stochastic transmission model to analyze data collected from a 3-year antibiotic treatment program (a 32-community, cluster-randomized clinical trial in Tanzania) to assess whether or not transmission actually increases during elimination campaigns. We found no evidence supporting any increase in transmission over the course of the program. The absence of a short term increase in transmission as the prevalence decreases is good news for trachoma programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Control programs for trachoma use mass antibiotic distributions to treat ocular Chlamydia trachomatis in an effort to eliminate this disease worldwide. To determine whether children infected with ocular Chlamydia are more likely to present later for examination than those who are uninfected, we compare the order of presentation for examination of children 0–5 years, and the presence of ocular Chlamydia by PCR in 4 villages in Niger where trachoma is endemic. Methods: We conducted a cluster-randomized, controlled trial where 48 randomly selected villages in Niger are divided into 4 study arms of different mass treatment strategies. In a substudy of the main trial, we randomly selected 1 village from each of the 4 study arms (4 total villages) and we evaluated the odds of ocular Chlamydia versus the rank order of presentation for examination and laboratory assessment before treatment was offered. Findings: We found the odds of harboring ocular Chlamydia dropped by more than 70% from the first child examined to the last child examined (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.13–0.59, P = 0.001) in the 4 randomly selected villages. We found the odds of active trachoma dropped by 80% from the first child examined to the last child examined (OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.10–0.4, P<0.0001) in the 48 villages in the main trial. Interpretation: This study demonstrates that even if the WHO recommended 80% treatment coverage is not reached in certain settings, children 0–5 years with the greatest probability of ocular Chlamydia have higher odds of receiving attention because they are the first to present. These results suggest there may be diminishing returns when using scarce resources to track down the last few children in a mass treatment program. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00792922 Author Summary: Trachoma is the most common cause of blindness from an infection in the world. The bacterium that causes trachoma is called Chlamydia trachomatis and it can be treated with the antibiotic azithromycin. Experts recommend trying to reach at least 80% of children for treatment in a community but it is unknown if this is necessary. We began a clinical trial in Niger in 48 villages in the summer of 2010 with mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin. We found that the odds of an eye infection were the highest in the first children to come for an examination. This means the extra time and money needed to reach all of the children in a village may provide diminishing returns because the easiest children to reach have the highest odds of infection. Perhaps it would be better to try to reach more villages for MDA instead of spending a lot of time and money trying to reach every single child in every single village. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over-prescribing of antibiotics is considered to result in increased morbidity and mortality from drug-resistant organisms. A resulting common wisdom is that it would be better for society if physicians would restrain their prescription of antibiotics. In this view, self-interest and societal interest are at odds, making antibiotic use a classic "tragedy of the commons". Methods and Findings: We developed two mathematical models of transmission of antibiotic resistance, featuring de novo development of resistance and transmission of resistant organisms. We analyzed the decision to prescribe antibiotics as a mathematical game, by analyzing individual incentives and community outcomes. Conclusions: A conflict of interest may indeed result, though not in all cases. Increased use of antibiotics by individuals benefits society under certain circumstances, despite the amplification of drug-resistant strains or organisms. In situations where increased use of antibiotics leads to less favorable outcomes for society, antibiotics may be harmful for the individual as well. For other scenarios, where a conflict between self-interest and society exists, restricting antibody use would benefit society. Thus, a case-by-case assessment of appropriate use of antibiotics may be warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Undernutrition is an important risk factor for childhood mortality, and remains a major problem facing many developing countries. Millennium Development Goal 1 calls for a reduction in underweight children, implemented through a variety of interventions. To adequately judge the impact of these interventions, it is important to know the reproducibility of the main indicators for undernutrition. In this study, we trained individuals from rural communities in Ethiopia in anthropometry techniques and measured intra- and inter-observer reliability. Methods and Findings: We trained 6 individuals without prior anthropometry experience to perform weight, height, and middle upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurements. Two anthropometry teams were dispatched to 18 communities in rural Ethiopia and measurements performed on all consenting pre-school children. Anthropometry teams performed a second independent measurement on a convenience sample of children in order to assess intra-anthropometrist reliability. Both teams measured the same children in 2 villages to assess inter-anthropometrist reliability. We calculated several metrics of measurement reproducibility, including the technical error of measurement (TEM) and relative TEM. In total, anthropometry teams performed measurements on 606 pre-school children, 84 of which had repeat measurements performed by the same team, and 89 of which had measurements performed by both teams. Intra-anthropometrist TEM (and relative TEM) were 0.35 cm (0.35%) for height, 0.05 kg (0.39%) for weight, and 0.18 cm (1.27%) for MUAC. Corresponding values for inter-anthropometrist reliability were 0.67 cm (0.75%) for height, 0.09 kg (0.79%) for weight, and 0.22 kg (1.53%) for MUAC. Inter-anthropometrist measurement error was greater for smaller children than for larger children. Conclusion: Measurements of height and weight were more reproducible than measurements of MUAC and measurements of larger children were more reliable than those for smaller children. Community-drawn anthropometrists can provide reliable measurements that could be used to assess the impact of interventions for childhood undernutrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Laboratory studies have suggested that antibiotic resistance may result in decreased fitness in the bacteria that harbor it. Observational studies have supported this, but due to ethical and practical considerations, it is rare to have experimental control over antibiotic prescription rates. Methods and Findings: We analyze data from a 54-month longitudinal trial that monitored pneumococcal drug resistance during and after biannual mass distribution of azithromycin for the elimination of the blinding eye disease, trachoma. Prescription of azithromycin and antibiotics that can create cross-resistance to it is rare in this part of the world. As a result, we were able to follow trends in resistance with minimal influence from unmeasured antibiotic use. Using these data, we fit a probabilistic disease transmission model that included two resistant strains, corresponding to the two dominant modes of resistance to macrolide antibiotics. We estimated the relative fitness of these two strains to be 0.86 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.90), and 0.88 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.93), relative to antibiotic-sensitive strains. We then used these estimates to predict that, within 5 years of the last antibiotic treatment, there would be a 95% chance of elimination of macrolide resistance by intra-species competition alone. Conclusions: Although it is quite possible that the fitness cost of macrolide resistance is sufficient to ensure its eventual elimination in the absence of antibiotic selection, this process takes time, and prevention is likely the best policy in the fight against resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: As part of the SAFE strategy, mass antibiotic treatments are useful in controlling the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. The World Health Organization recommends treating at least 80% of individuals per community. However, the role of antibiotic coverage for trachoma control has been poorly characterized. Methodology/Principal Findings: In a collection of cluster-randomized clinical trials, mass oral azithromycin was administered to 40 villages in Ethiopia. The village prevalence of ocular chlamydia was determined before treatment, and at two and six months post-treatment. The mean prevalence of ocular chlamydia was 48.9% (95% CI 42.8 to 55.0%) before mass treatments, decreased to 5.4% (95% CI 3.9 to 7.0%) at two months after treatments (p<0.0001), and returned to 7.9% (95% CI 5.4 to 10.4%) by six months after treatment (p = 0.03). Antibiotic coverage ranged from 73.9% to 100%, with a mean of 90.6%. In multivariate regression models, chlamydial prevalence two months after treatment was associated with baseline infection (p<0.0001) and antibiotic coverage (p = 0.007). However, by six months after treatment, chlamydial prevalence was associated only with baseline infection (p<0.0001), but not coverage (p = 0.31). Conclusions/Significance: In post-hoc analyses of a large clinical trial, the amount of endemic chlamydial infection was a strong predictor of chlamydial infection after mass antibiotic treatments. Antibiotic coverage was an important short-term predictor of chlamydial infection, but no longer predicted infection by six months after mass antibiotic treatments. A wider range of antibiotic coverage than found in this study might allow an assessment of a more subtle association. Author Summary: Trachoma, caused by ocular chlamydia infection, is the most common infectious cause of blindness in the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the SAFE strategy (eyelid surgery, antibiotics, facial hygiene, environmental improvements) for trachoma control. Oral antibiotics reduce the transmission of ocular chlamydia, but re-infection of treated individuals is common. Therefore, the WHO recommends annual mass antibiotic treatments to the entire village. The success of treatment is likely based on many factors, including the antibiotic coverage, or percentage of villagers who receive antibiotics. However, no studies have analyzed the importance of antibiotic coverage for the reduction of ocular chlamydia. Here, we performed multivariate regression analyses on data from a clinical trial of mass oral antibiotics for trachoma in a severely affected area of Ethiopia. At the relatively high levels of antibiotic coverage in our study, coverage was associated with post-treatment infection at two months, but not at six months. The amount of infection at baseline was strongly correlated with post-treatment infection at both two and six months. These results suggest that in areas with severe trachoma treated with relatively high antibiotic coverage, increasing coverage even further may have only a short-term benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Repeated mass azithromycin distributions are effective in controlling the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. However, it is unclear when treatments can be discontinued. Investigators have proposed graduating communities when the prevalence of infection identified in children decreases below a threshold. While this can be tested empirically, results will not be available for years. Here we use a mathematical model to predict results with different graduation strategies in three African countries. Methods: A stochastic model of trachoma transmission was constructed, using the parameters with the maximum likelihood of obtaining results observed from studies in Tanzania (with 16% infection in children pre-treatment), The Gambia (9%), and Ethiopia (64%). The expected prevalence of infection at 3 years was obtained, given different thresholds for graduation and varying the characteristics of the diagnostic test. Results: The model projects that three annual treatments at 80% coverage would reduce the mean prevalence of infection to 0.03% in Tanzanian, 2.4% in Gambian, and 12.9% in the Ethiopian communities. If communities graduate when the prevalence of infection falls below 5%, then the mean prevalence at 3 years with the new strategy would be 0.3%, 3.9%, and 14.4%, respectively. Graduations reduced antibiotic usage by 63% in Tanzania, 56% in The Gambia, and 11% in Ethiopia. Conclusion: Models suggest that graduating communities from a program when the infection is reduced to 5% is a reasonable strategy and could reduce the amount of antibiotic distributed in some areas by more than 2-fold. Author Summary: Trachoma, the major cause of infectious blindness in the world, occurs when repeated infections of the ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis lead to a cascade of conjunctival scarring, in-turned eyelids and eyelashes, and eventually blindness due to corneal opacity. To reduce the prevalence of infection, the World Health Organization (WHO) advocates at least three annual community-wide distributions of oral antibiotics in affected areas. This approach has proven effective, but there is room to explore other treatment strategies which reduce the use of antibiotics. Here, we used mathematical models and data from three trachoma-endemic countries (Tanzania, The Gambia, and Ethiopia) to analyze different treatment strategies. In the simulations, we show that a graduation strategy can reduce antibiotic distributions more than 2-fold in moderately affected areas. Both treatment strategies provide favorable results in reducing the prevalence of ocular chlamydia, but high costs and the potential for resistance are important issues to consider when administering mass doses of antibiotics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corrections to the article "Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models" that was published in the 2015 issue are presented.

This correction notice from PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases provides updated funding information for a study on the distribution of ocular chlamydia prevalence in Tanzanian communities where trachoma is declining. The correct funding sources are the US National Institutes of Health, National Institute of General Medical Science, Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) and the Partnership for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma study, supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The funders did not have any involvement in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or manuscript preparation. [Extracted from the article]

Children with acute malnutrition are at high risk of morality. Mass azithromycin distribution reduces all-cause mortality among children aged 1-59 months, and effects may be greater in underweight infants. Here, we evaluate the efficacy of azithromycin for reducing all-cause mortality in children aged 6-59 months with acute malnutrition (mid-upper arm circumference, MUAC, < 12.5 cm). Communities in Nouna District, Burkina Faso were 1:1 randomized to biannual mass distribution of single dose azithromycin or placebo to all children aged 1-59 months. Mortality was assessed during each census and treatment round. MUAC measurements were collected for all children. We evaluated the effect of azithromycin on mortality in subgroups of children aged 6-59 months defined by acute malnutrition (MUAC < 12.5 cm versus MUAC ≥ 12.5 cm). In children with MUAC < 12.5 cm, mortality rates were 51% lower among those living in azithromycin communities compared to placebo (incidence rate ratio 0.49, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.25 to 0.99; incidence rate difference -18.1 deaths per 1,000 person-years, 95% CI -37.0 to -0.01), which was greater than the reduction in mortality among children with MUAC ≥ 12.5 cm (P-value for interaction on the relative scale = 0.09; P-value for interaction of the additive scale = 0.03). Children with acute malnutrition may benefit from single dose azithromycin above and beyond those without acute malnutrition. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03676764; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03676764., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Sié et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Recent evidence indicates mass azithromycin distribution reduces under-5 mortality. This intervention is being considered for child survival programs in high mortality sub-Saharan African settings. The delivery approach used in prior studies required a full-time census and distribution team, which is not feasible for most programs. To determine the optimal programmatic approach to delivery, this study aimed to compare treatment coverage, costs, and acceptability of different delivery approaches with existing community health workers (CHWs). This cluster-randomized trial included rural and peri-urban communities in Dosso, Niger (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04774991). A random sample of 80 eligible communities was randomized 1:1 to biannual door-to-door or fixed-point delivery of oral azithromycin to children 1-59 months old over 1 year. Data analysts alone were masked given the nature of the intervention. The primary outcome was community-level treatment coverage defined as the number of children treated recorded by CHWs divided by the number of eligible children determined using a post-distribution census. Costs were monitored through routine administrative data collection and micro-costing. The census included survey questions on intervention acceptability among caregivers, community leaders, and CHWs. After randomization, 1 community was excluded due to inaccuracies in available administrative data, resulting in 39 communities receiving door-to-door delivery. At the second distribution, community-level mean treatment coverage was 105% (SD 44%) in the door-to-door arm and 92% (SD 20%) in the fixed-point arm (Mean difference 13%, 95% CI -2% to 28%, P-value = 0.08). The total cost per dose delivered was $1.91 in the door-to-door arm and $2.51 in the fixed-point arm. Indicators of acceptability were similar across stakeholder groups in both arms, with most respondents in each group indicating a preference for door-to-door. Overall, door-to-door delivery is the preferred approach to azithromycin distribution in this setting and might reach more children at a lower cost per dose delivered than fixed-point. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov NCT04774991., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Arzika et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Low birthweight (birthweight <2500 grams, g) and underweight (weight-for-age Z-score, WAZ, < -2) infants have higher risk of poor outcomes compared to their well-nourished peers. We evaluated the role of azithromycin for reducing mortality and improving growth outcomes in low birthweight and/or underweight infants., Methods: Infants aged 8-27 days of age weighing ≥2500 g at enrollment in Burkina Faso were randomized 1:1 to a single, oral dose of azithromycin (20 mg/kg) or matching placebo. We evaluated mortality and anthropometric outcomes in four subgroups: 1) both low birthweight and underweight at enrollment; 2) low birthweight-only; 3) underweight-only; 4) neither low birthweight nor underweight., Findings: Of 21,832 enrolled infants, 21,320 (98%) had birthweight measurements and included in this analysis. Of these, 747 (3%) were both low birthweight and underweight, 972 (5%) were low birthweight-only, 825 (4%) were underweight-only, and 18,776 (88%) were neither low birthweight nor underweight. Infants who were both low birthweight and underweight receiving azithromycin had lower odds of underweight at 6 months compared to placebo (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.95), but the treatment group by subgroup interaction was not statistically significant (P = 0.06). We did not find evidence of a difference between groups for other outcomes in any subgroup., Interpretation: Azithromycin may have some growth-promoting benefits for the highest risk infants, but we were unable to demonstrate a difference in most outcomes in low birthweight and underweight infants. As a secondary analysis of a trial, this study was underpowered for rare outcomes such as mortality., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03682653., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Bountogo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Trachoma control programs utilize mass azithromycin distributions to treat ocular Chlamydia trachomatis as part of an effort to eliminate this disease world-wide. But it remains unclear what the community-level risk factors are for infection., Methods: This cluster-randomized, controlled trial entered 48 randomly selected communities in a 2×2 factorial design evaluating the effect of different treatment frequencies and treatment coverage levels. A pretreatment census and examination established the prevalence of risk factors for clinical trachoma and ocular chlamydia infection including years of education of household head, distance to primary water source, presence of household latrine, and facial cleanliness (ocular discharge, nasal discharge, and presence of facial flies). Univariate and multivariate associations were tested using linear regression and Bayes model averaging., Findings: There were a total of 24,536 participants (4,484 children aged 0-5 years) in 6,235 households in the study. Before treatment in May to July 2010, the community-level prevalence of active trachoma (TF or TI utilizing the World Health Organization [WHO] grading system) was 26.0% (95% CI: 21.9% to 30.0%) and the mean community-level prevalence of chlamydia infection by Amplicor PCR was 20.7% (95% CI: 16.5% to 24.9%) in children aged 0-5 years. Univariate analysis showed that nasal discharge (0.29, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.54; P = 0.03), presence of flies on the face (0.40, 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.64; P = 0.001), and years of formal education completed by the head of household (0.07, 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.13; P = 0.03) were independent risk factors for chlamydia infection. In multivariate analysis, facial flies (0.26, 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.49; P = 0.03) and years of formal education completed by the head of household (0.06, 95% CI: 0.008 to 0.11; P = 0.02) were associated risk factors for ocular chlamydial infection., Interpretation: We have found that the presence of facial flies and years of education of the head of the household are risk factors for chlamydia infection when the analysis is done at the community level., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00792922.