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In the California Current Ecosystem, El Niño acts as a natural phenomenon that is partially representative of climate change impacts on marine bacteria at timescales relevant to microbial communities. Between 2014-2016, the North Pacific warm anomaly (a.k.a., the "blob") and an El Niño event resulted in prolonged ocean warming in the Southern California Bight (SCB). To determine whether this "marine heatwave" resulted in shifts in microbial populations, we sequenced the rpoC1 gene from the biogeochemically important picocyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus at 434 time points from 2009-2018 in the MICRO time series at Newport Beach, CA. Across the time series, we observed an increase in the abundance of Prochlorococcus relative to Synechococcus as well as elevated frequencies of ecotypes commonly associated with low-nutrient and high-temperature conditions. The relationships between environmental and ecotype trends appeared to operate on differing temporal scales. In contrast to ecotype trends, most microdiverse populations were static and possibly reflect local habitat conditions. The only exceptions were microdiversity from Prochlorococcous HLI and Synechococcus Clade II that shifted in response to the 2015 El Niño event. Overall, Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations did not return to their pre-heatwave composition by the end of this study. This research demonstrates that extended warming in the SCB can result in persistent changes in key microbial populations., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Prochlorococcus is a marine cyanobacterium that numerically dominates the mid-latitude oceans and is the smallest known oxygenic phototroph. Numerous isolates from diverse areas of the world's oceans have been studied and shown to be physiologically and genetically distinct. All isolates described thus far can be assigned to either a tightly clustered high-light (HL)-adapted clade, or a more divergent low-light (LL)-adapted group. The 16S rRNA sequences of the entire Prochlorococcus group differ by at most 3%, and the four initially published genomes revealed patterns of genetic differentiation that help explain physiological differences among the isolates. Here we describe the genomes of eight newly sequenced isolates and combine them with the first four genomes for a comprehensive analysis of the core (shared by all isolates) and flexible genes of the Prochlorococcus group, and the patterns of loss and gain of the flexible genes over the course of evolution. There are 1,273 genes that represent the core shared by all 12 genomes. They are apparently sufficient, according to metabolic reconstruction, to encode a functional cell. We describe a phylogeny for all 12 isolates by subjecting their complete proteomes to three different phylogenetic analyses. For each non-core gene, we used a maximum parsimony method to estimate which ancestor likely first acquired or lost each gene. Many of the genetic differences among isolates, especially for genes involved in outer membrane synthesis and nutrient transport, are found within the same clade. Nevertheless, we identified some genes defining HL and LL ecotypes, and clades within these broad ecotypes, helping to demonstrate the basis of HL and LL adaptations in Prochlorococcus. Furthermore, our estimates of gene gain events allow us to identify highly variable genomic islands that are not apparent through simple pairwise comparisons. These results emphasize the functional roles, especially those connected to outer membrane synthesis and transport that dominate the flexible genome and set it apart from the core. Besides identifying islands and demonstrating their role throughout the history of Prochlorococcus, reconstruction of past gene gains and losses shows that much of the variability exists at the "leaves of the tree," between the most closely related strains. Finally, the identification of core and flexible genes from this 12-genome comparison is largely consistent with the relative frequency of Prochlorococcus genes found in global ocean metagenomic databases, further closing the gap between our understanding of these organisms in the lab and the wild., Competing Interests: Competing interests. The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.