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Controlling tsetse flies is critical for effective management of African trypanosomiasis in Sub-Saharan Africa. To enhance timely and targeted deployment of tsetse control strategies a better understanding of their temporal dynamics is paramount. A few empirical studies have explained and predicted tsetse numbers across space and time, but the resulting models may not easily scale to other areas. We used tsetse catches from 160 traps monitored between 2017 and 2019 around Shimba Hills National Reserve in Kenya, a known tsetse and trypanosomiasis hotspot. Traps were divided into two groups: proximal (<1.0 km)) to and distant (> 1.0 km) from the outer edge of the reserve boundary. We fitted zero-inflated Poisson and generalized linear regression models for each group using as temporal predictors rainfall, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and LST (land surface temperature). For each predictor, we assessed their relationship with tsetse abundance using time lags from 10 days up to 60 days before the last tsetse collection date of each trap. Tsetse numbers decreased as distance from the outside of reserve increased. Proximity to croplands, grasslands, woodlands, and the reserve boundary were the key predictors for proximal traps. Tsetse numbers rose after a month of increased rainfall and the following increase in NDVI values but started to decline if the rains persisted beyond a month for distant traps. Specifically, tsetse flies were more abundant in areas with NDVI values greater than 0.7 for the distant group. The study suggests that tsetse control efforts beyond 1.0 km of the reserve boundary should be implemented after a month of increased rains in areas having NDVI values greater than 0.7. To manage tsetse flies effectively within a 1.0 km radius of the reserve boundary, continuous measures such as establishing an insecticide-treated trap or target barrier around the reserve boundary are needed. Author summary: To control African trypanosomiasis, tsetse populations must be reduced to levels that impede disease transmission. Limited reliable information on tsetse temporal dynamics hinders the implementation of effective control strategies. We used two empirical modelling strategies (zero-inflated Poisson and generalized linear Poisson) to link tsetse abundance with environmental and weather data, to understand and explain tsetse temporal dynamics in a heterogeneous environment. Tsetse numbers were consistently high within 1.0 km of the reserve outer boundary due to favorable breeding sites, resting sites, and host availability. Beyond 1.0 km of the reserve boundary, tsetse numbers increased after a month of increased rainfall, but started to decline if rainfall persisted beyond a month. For these localities, higher tsetse numbers were also found in areas with NDVI values above 0.7. These insights provide valuable guidance for the timing and location of tsetse control strategies around Shimba Hills National Reserve, particularly considering the limited resources available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reversing ecological degradation through restoration activities is a key societal challenge of the upcoming decade. However, lack of evidence on the effectiveness of restoration interventions leads to inconsistent, delayed, or poorly informed statements of success, hindering the wise allocation of resources, representing a missed opportunity to learn from previous experiences. This study contributes to a better understanding of spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services at ecological restoration sites. We developed a method using Landsat satellite images combined with a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) design, and applied this to an arid rural landscape, the Baviaanskloof in South Africa. Since 1990, various restoration projects have been implemented to halt and reverse degradation. We applied the BACI approach at pixel-level comparing the conditions of each intervened pixel (impact) with 20 similar control pixels. By evaluating the conditions before and after the restoration intervention, we assessed the effectiveness of long-term restoration interventions distinguishing their impact from environmental temporal changes. The BACI approach was implemented with Landsat images that cover a 30-year period at a spatial resolution of 30 meter. We evaluated the impact of three interventions (revegetation, livestock exclusion, and the combination of both) on three ecosystem services; forage provision, erosion prevention, and presence of iconic vegetation. We also evaluated whether terrain characteristics could partially explain the variation in impact of interventions. The resulting maps showed spatial patterns of positive and negative effects of interventions on ecosystem services. Intervention effectiveness differed across vegetation conditions, terrain aspect, and soil parent material. Our method allows for spatially explicit quantification of the long-term restoration impact on ecosystem service supply, and for the detailed visualization of impact across an area. This pixel-level analysis is specifically suited for heterogeneous landscapes, where restoration impact not only varies between but also within restoration sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To-date, Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred in 38 of the 69 administrative districts in Kenya. Using surveillance records collected between 1951 and 2007, we determined the risk of exposure and outcome of an RVF outbreak, examined the ecological and climatic factors associated with the outbreaks, and used these data to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. Methods: Exposure to RVF was evaluated as the proportion of the total outbreak years that each district was involved in prior epizootics, whereas risk of outcome was assessed as severity of observed disease in humans and animals for each district. A probability-impact weighted score (1 to 9) of the combined exposure and outcome risks was used to classify a district as high (score ≥ 5) or medium (score ≥2 - <5) risk, a classification that was subsequently subjected to expert group analysis for final risk level determination at the division levels (total = 391 divisions). Divisions that never reported RVF disease (score < 2) were classified as low risk. Using data from the 2006/07 RVF outbreak, the predictive risk factors for an RVF outbreak were identified. The predictive probabilities from the model were further used to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. Results: The final output was a RVF risk map that classified 101 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 21 districts as high risk, and 100 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 35 districts as medium risk and 190 divisions (48%) as low risk, including all 97 divisions in Nyanza and Western provinces. The risk of RVF was positively associated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), low altitude below 1000m and high precipitation in areas with solonertz, luvisols and vertisols soil types (p <0.05). Conclusion: RVF risk map serves as an important tool for developing and deploying prevention and control measures against the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]