Search

Background Malaria transmission modelling has demonstrated the potential impact of semiquantitative glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing and treatment with single-dose tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax radical cure but has not investigated the associated costs. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of P. vivax treatment with tafenoquine after G6PD testing using a transmission model. Methods and findings We explored the cost-effectiveness of using tafenoquine after G6PD screening as compared to usual practice (7-day low-dose primaquine (0.5 mg/kg/day) without G6PD screening) in Brazil using a 10-year time horizon with 5% discounting considering 4 scenarios: (1) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 66.7% primaquine treatment adherence; (2) tafenoquine for adults and children aged >2 years assuming 66.7% primaquine adherence; (3) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 90% primaquine adherence; and (4) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 30% primaquine adherence. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated by dividing the incremental costs by the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. These were compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of US$7,800 for Brazil, and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. All 4 scenarios were cost-effective in the base case analysis using this WTP threshold with ICERs ranging from US$154 to US$1,836. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the results were most sensitive to severity and mortality due to vivax malaria, the lifetime and number of semiquantitative G6PD analysers needed, cost per malaria episode and per G6PD test strips, and life expectancy. All scenarios had a 100% likelihood of being cost-effective at the WTP threshold. The main limitations of this study are due to parameter uncertainty around our cost estimates for low transmission settings, the costs of G6PD screening, and the severity of vivax malaria Conclusions In our modelling study that incorporated impact on transmission, tafenoquine prescribed after a semiquantitative G6PD testing was highly likely to be cost-effective in Brazil. These results demonstrate the potential health and economic importance of ensuring safe and effective radical cure., Author(s): David J. Price 1,2, Narimane Nekkab 3,4, Wuelton M. Monteiro 5,6, Daniel A. M. Villela 7, Julie A. Simpson 2, Marcus V. G. Lacerda 5,8, Michael T. White 9, [...]

Background: Co-infection of the four major species of human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum (Pf), P. vivax (Pv), P. malariae (Pm), and P. ovale sp. (Po) is regularly observed, but there is limited understanding of between-species interactions. In particular, little is known about the effects of multiple Plasmodium species co-infections on gametocyte production. Methods: We developed molecular assays for detecting asexual and gametocyte stages of Pf, Pv, Pm, and Po. This is the first description of molecular diagnostics for Pm and Po gametocytes. These assays were implemented in a unique epidemiological setting in Papua New Guinea with sympatric transmission of all four Plasmodium species permitting a comprehensive investigation of species interactions. Findings: The observed frequency of Pf-Pv co-infection for asexual parasites (14.7%) was higher than expected from individual prevalence rates (23.8%Pf x 47.4%Pv = 11.3%). The observed frequency of co-infection with Pf and Pv gametocytes (4.6%) was higher than expected from individual prevalence rates (13.1%Pf x 28.2%Pv = 3.7%). The excess risk of co-infection was 1.38 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.67) for all parasites and 1.37 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.79) for gametocytes. This excess co-infection risk was partially attributable to malaria infections clustering in some villages. Pf-Pv-Pm triple infections were four times more frequent than expected by chance alone, which could not be fully explained by infections clustering in highly exposed individuals. The effect of co-infection on parasite density was analyzed by systematic comparison of all pairwise interactions. This revealed a significant 6.57-fold increase of Pm density when co-infected with Pf. Pm gametocytemia also increased with Pf co-infection. Conclusions: Heterogeneity in exposure to mosquitoes is a key epidemiological driver of Plasmodium co-infection. Among the four co-circulating parasites, Pm benefitted most from co-infection with other species. Beyond this, no general prevailing pattern of suppression or facilitation was identified in pairwise analysis of gametocytemia and parasitemia of the four species. Trial registration: This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, Trial ID: NCT02143934. Author summary: The majority of malaria research focuses on the Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax parasite species, due to their large public health burden. The epidemiology of P. malariae and P. ovale parasites has been comparatively neglected, due to a lack of research tools, most notably diagnostics. We present new molecular diagnostic assays for detecting P. malariae and P. ovale gametocytes, the sexual stage of the malaria parasite transmitted to mosquitoes. These assays were applied to samples collected in Papua New Guinea, a rare region with high transmission of the four major malaria parasite species. Patterns of co-infections were characterized accounting for interactions between pairs and triples of parasites. Heterogeneity in exposure to mosquito bites was identified as a key driver of patterns of co-infection. The effect of co-infection on parasite density was analyzed by systematic comparison of all pairwise interactions. The most significant within-host interaction of parasites was the large increase in P. malariae parasite density due to co-infection with P. falciparum. This finding was replicated for P. malariae gametocytes (but did not attain statistical significance due to low sample numbers) suggesting that co-infection provides a key transmission advantage to P. malariae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The landscape of malaria transmission in the Peruvian Amazon is temporally and spatially heterogeneous, presenting different micro-geographies with particular epidemiologies. Most cases are asymptomatic and escape routine malaria surveillance based on light microscopy (LM). Following the implementation of control programs in this region, new approaches to stratify transmission and direct efforts at an individual and community level are needed. Antibody responses to serological exposure markers (SEM) to Plasmodium vivax have proven diagnostic performance to identify people exposed in the previous 9 months. Methodology: We measured antibody responses against 8 SEM to identify recently exposed people and determine the transmission dynamics of P. vivax in peri-urban (Iquitos) and riverine (Mazán) communities of Loreto, communities that have seen significant recent reductions in malaria transmission. Socio-demographic, geo-reference, LM and qPCR diagnosis data were collected from two cross-sectional surveys. Spatial and multilevel analyses were implemented to describe the distribution of seropositive cases and the risk factors associated with exposure to P. vivax. Principal findings: Low local transmission was detected by qPCR in both Iquitos (5.3%) and Mazán (2.7%); however, seroprevalence indicated a higher level of (past) exposure to P. vivax in Mazán (56.5%) than Iquitos (38.2%). Age and being male were factors associated with high odds of being seropositive in both sites. Higher antibody levels were found in individuals >15 years old. The persistence of long-lived antibodies in these individuals could overestimate the detection of recent exposure. Antibody levels in younger populations (<15 years old) could be a better indicator of recent exposure to P. vivax. Conclusions: The large number of current and past infections detected by SEMs allows for detailed local epidemiological analyses, in contrast to data from qPCR prevalence surveys which did not produce statistically significant associations. Serological surveillance will be increasingly important in the Peruvian Amazon as malaria transmission is reduced by continued control and elimination efforts. Author summary: A challenge for eliminating Plasmodium vivax is its relapsing nature that can contribute up to 80% of the P. vivax cases. The detection of this source of transmission remains crucial for focused interventions in settings attempting to achieve elimination. Antibody responses to serological exposure markers to P. vivax have been validated to detect recent exposure and likely hypnozoite carriers in low transmission settings. To evaluate the benefits of adding serology to the detection of infection in areas where malaria transmission is rapidly reduced, we measured the prevalence of P. vivax by qPCR and serology in two sites of the Peruvian Amazon. This study shows that antibody responses to P. vivax antigens can detect more recently exposed people than molecular testing, providing more statistical power for surveillance and critical additional epidemiological knowledge for regions attempting to eliminate malaria transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The undetectable hypnozoite reservoir for relapsing Plasmodium vivax and P. ovale malarias presents a major challenge for malaria control and elimination in endemic countries. This study aims to directly determine the contribution of relapses to the burden of P. vivax and P. ovale infection, illness, and transmission in Papua New Guinean children. Methods and Findings From 17 August 2009 to 20 May 2010,524 children aged 5-10 y from East Sepik Province in Papua New Guinea (PNG) participated in a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of blood- plus liver-stage drugs (chloroquine [CQ], 3 d; artemether-lumefantrine [AL], 3 d; and primaquine [PQ], 20 d, 10 mg/kg total dose) (261 children) or blood-stage drugs only (CQ, 3 d; AL, 3 d; and placebo [PL], 20 d) (263 children). Participants, study staff, and investigators were blinded to the treatment allocation. Twenty children were excluded during the treatment phase (PQ arm: 14, PL arm: 6), and 504 were followed actively for 9 mo. During the follow-up time, 18 children (PQ arm: 7, PL arm: 11) were lost to follow-up. Main primary and secondary outcome measures were time to first P. vivax infection (by qPCR), time to first clinical episode, force of infection, gametocyte positivity, and time to first P. ovale infection (by PCR). A basic stochastic transmission model was developed to estimate the potential effect of mass drug administration (MDA) for the prevention of recurrent P. vivax infections. Targeting hypnozoites through PQ treatment reduced the risk of having at least one qPCR-detectable P. vivax or P. ovale infection during 8 mo of follow-up (P. vivax: PQ arm 0.63/y versus PL arm 2.62/y, HR = 0.18 [95% CI 0.14, 0.25], p < 0.001; P. ovale: 0.06 versus 0.14, HR = 0.31 [95% CI 0.13, 0.77], p = 0.011) and the risk of having at least one clinical P. vivax episode (HR = 0.25 [95% CI 0.11,0.61], p = 0.002). PQ also reduced the molecular force of P. vivax blood-stage infection in the first 3 mo of follow-up (PQ arm 1.90/y versus PL arm 7.75/y, incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.21 [95% CI 0.15,0.28], p < 0.001). Children who received PQ were less likely to carry P. vivax gametocytes (IRR = 0.27 [95% CI 0.19,0.38], p < 0.001). PQ had a comparable effect irrespective of the presence of P. vivax blood-stage infection at the time of treatment (p = 0.14). Modelling revealed that mass screening and treatment with highly sensitive quantitative real-time PCR, or MDA with blood-stage treatment alone, would have only a transient effect on P. vivax transmission levels, while MDA that includes liver-stage treatment is predicted to be a highly effective strategy for P. vivax elimination. The inclusion of a directly observed 20-d treatment regime maximises the efficiency of hypnozoite clearance but limits the generalisability of results to real-world MDA programmes. Conclusions These results suggest that relapses cause approximately four of every five P. vivax infections and at least three of every five P. ovale infections in PNG children and are important in sustaining transmission. MDA campaigns combining blood- and liver-stage treatment are predicted to be a highly efficacious intervention for reducing P. vivax and P. ovale transmission. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02143934, Introduction Renewed intensification of global malaria control efforts over the last 15 years have been successful in significantly reducing the global burden of malaria, with many countries in the Asia-Pacific [...]

Background: Antibody responses as serological markers of Plasmodium vivax infection have been shown to correlate with exposure, but little is known about the other factors that affect antibody responses in naturally infected people from endemic settings. To address this question, we studied IgG responses to novel serological exposure markers (SEMs) of P. vivax in three settings with different transmission intensity. Methodology: We validated a panel of 34 SEMs in a Peruvian cohort with up to three years' longitudinal follow-up using a multiplex platform and compared results to data from cohorts in Thailand and Brazil. Linear regression models were used to characterize the association between antibody responses and age, the number of detected blood-stage infections during follow-up, and time since previous infection. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to test the performance of SEMs to identify P. vivax infections in the previous 9 months. Principal findings: Antibody titers were associated with age, the number of blood-stage infections, and time since previous P. vivax infection in all three study sites. The association between antibody titers and time since previous P. vivax infection was stronger in the low transmission settings of Thailand and Brazil compared to the higher transmission setting in Peru. Of the SEMs tested, antibody responses to RBP2b had the highest performance for classifying recent exposure in all sites, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.83 in Thailand, AUC = 0.79 in Brazil, and AUC = 0.68 in Peru. Conclusions: In low transmission settings, P. vivax SEMs can accurately identify individuals with recent blood-stage infections. In higher transmission settings, the accuracy of this approach diminishes substantially. We recommend using P. vivax SEMs in low transmission settings pursuing malaria elimination, but they are likely to be less effective in high transmission settings focused on malaria control. Author summary: Plasmodium vivax still poses a threat in many countries due to its ability to cause recurrent infections. Key to achieving the goal of malaria elimination is the ability to quickly detect and treat carriers of relapsing parasites. Failing to identify this transmission reservoir will hinder progress towards malaria elimination. Recently, novel serological markers of recent exposure to P. vivax (SEM) have been developed and validated in low transmission settings. It is still poorly understood what factors affect the antibody response to these markers when evaluated in contrasting endemic contexts. To determine the factors that influence the antibody response to SEM, we compared the antibody levels in three sites with different transmission intensity: Thailand (low), Brazil (moderate) and Peru (high). In this study, we found that transmission intensity plays a key role in the acquisition of the antibody repertoire to P. vivax. In highly endemic sites, it is likely that immunological memory resulting from a constant and sustained exposure will impact the performance of SEMs to detect individuals with recent exposure to P. vivax. In summary, SEMs that perform well in low transmission sites do not perform as well in high transmission regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Plasmodium vivax Reticulocyte Binding Protein (PvRBP) family is involved in red blood cell recognition and members of this family are potential targets for antibodies that may block P. vivax invasion. To date, the acquisition of immunity against PvRBPs in low malaria transmission settings and in a broad age group of exposed individuals has not been investigated. Methodology/Principal findings: Total IgG antibody levels to six members of the PvRBP family (PvRBP1a, PvRBP1b, PvRBP2a, PvRBP2b, a non-binding fragment of PvRBP2c (PvRBP2cNB) and PvRBP2-P2) were measured in samples collected from individuals living in two regions of low P. vivax endemicity in Brazil and Thailand. In both settings, levels of total IgG to PvRBP1a, PvRBP2b, PvRBP2cNB, and PvRBP2P-2 increased significantly with age (rho = 0.17–0.49; P<0.001). IgG responses to PvRBP1a, PvRBP2b and PvRBP2cNB were significantly higher in infected individuals by using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank test (P<0.001). Of the six PvRBPs examined, only antibodies to PvRBP2b were associated with protection against clinical malaria in both settings. Conclusion/Significance: Our results indicate that PvRBP2b warrants further preclinical development as a blood-stage vaccine candidate against P. vivax. Total IgG responses to PvRBPs were also shown to be promising immunological markers of exposure to P. vivax infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plasmodium vivax remains an important cause of malaria in South America and the Asia-Pacific. Naturally acquired antibody responses against multiple P. vivax proteins have been described in numerous countries, however, direct comparison of these responses has been difficult with different methodologies employed. We measured antibody responses against 307 P. vivax proteins at the time of P. vivax infection, and at 2–3 later time-points in three countries. We observed that seropositivity rates at the time of infection were highest in Thailand, followed by Brazil then PNG, reflecting the level of antigenic input. The majority of sero-reactive antigens in all sites induced short-lived antibody responses with estimated half-lives of less than 6 months, although there was a trend towards longer-lived responses in PNG children. Despite these differences, IgG seropositivity rates, magnitude and longevity were highly and significantly rank-correlated between the different regions, suggesting such features are reflective of the individual protein. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As malaria is being pushed back on many frontiers and global case numbers are declining, accurate measurement and prediction of transmission becomes increasingly difficult. Low transmission settings are characterised by high levels of spatial heterogeneity, which stands in stark contrast to the widely used assumption of spatially homogeneous transmission used in mathematical transmission models for malaria. In the present study an individual-based mathematical malaria transmission model that incorporates multiple parasite clones, variable human exposure and duration of infection, limited mosquito flight distance and most importantly geographically heterogeneous human and mosquito population densities was used to illustrate the differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous transmission assumptions when aiming to predict surrogate indicators of transmission intensity such as population parasite prevalence or multiplicity of infection (MOI). In traditionally highly malaria endemic regions where most of the population harbours malaria parasites, humans are often infected with multiple parasite clones. However, studies have shown also in areas with low overall parasite prevalence, infection with multiple parasite clones is a common occurrence. Mathematical models assuming homogeneous transmission between humans and mosquitoes cannot explain these observations. Heterogeneity of transmission can arise from many factors including acquired immunity, body size and occupational exposure. In this study, we show that spatial heterogeneity has a profound effect on predictions of MOI and parasite prevalence. We illustrate, that models assuming homogeneous transmission underestimate average MOI in low transmission settings when compared to field data and that spatially heterogeneous models predict stable transmission at much lower overall parasite prevalence. Therefore it is very important that models used to guide malaria surveillance and control strategies in low transmission and elimination settings take into account the spatial features of the specific target area, including human and mosquito vector distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria would be greatly facilitated by the development of an effective vaccine. A comprehensive and systematic characterization of antibodies to P. vivax antigens in exposed populations is useful in guiding rational vaccine design. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this study, we investigated antibodies to a large library of P. vivax entire ectodomain merozoite proteins in 2 Asia-Pacific populations, analysing the relationship of antibody levels with markers of current and cumulative malaria exposure, and socioeconomic and clinical indicators. 29 antigenic targets of natural immunity were identified. Of these, 12 highly-immunogenic proteins were strongly associated with age and thus cumulative lifetime exposure in Solomon Islanders (P<0.001–0.027). A subset of 6 proteins, selected on the basis of immunogenicity and expression levels, were used to examine antibody levels in plasma samples from a population of young Papua New Guinean children with well-characterized individual differences in exposure. This analysis identified a strong association between reduced risk of clinical disease and antibody levels to P12, P41, and a novel hypothetical protein that has not previously been studied, PVX_081550 (IRR 0.46–0.74; P<0.001–0.041). Conclusion/Significance: These data emphasize the benefits of an unbiased screening approach in identifying novel vaccine candidate antigens. Functional studies are now required to establish whether PVX_081550 is a key component of the naturally-acquired protective immune response, a biomarker of immune status, or both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Plasmodium knowlesi is now recognised as a leading cause of malaria in Malaysia. As humans come into increasing contact with the reservoir host (long-tailed macaques) as a consequence of deforestation, assessing the potential for a shift from zoonotic to sustained P. knowlesi transmission between humans is critical. Methods: A multi-host, multi-site transmission model was developed, taking into account the three areas (forest, farm, and village) where transmission is thought to occur. Latin hypercube sampling of model parameters was used to identify parameter sets consistent with possible prevalence in macaques and humans inferred from observed data. We then explore the consequences of increasing human-macaque contact in the farm, the likely impact of rapid treatment, and the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in preventing wider spread of this emerging infection. Results: Identified model parameters were consistent with transmission being sustained by the macaques with spill over infections into the human population and with high overall basic reproduction numbers (up to 2267). The extent to which macaques forage in the farms had a non-linear relationship with human infection prevalence, the highest prevalence occurring when macaques forage in the farms but return frequently to the forest where they experience higher contact with vectors and hence sustain transmission. Only one of 1,046 parameter sets was consistent with sustained human-to-human transmission in the absence of macaques, although with a low human reproduction number (R0H = 1.04). Simulations showed LLINs and rapid treatment provide personal protection to humans with maximal estimated reductions in human prevalence of 42% and 95%, respectively. Conclusion: This model simulates conditions where P. knowlesi transmission may occur and the potential impact of control measures. Predictions suggest that conventional control measures are sufficient at reducing the risk of infection in humans, but they must be actively implemented if P. knowlesi is to be controlled. Author Summary: Plasmodium knowlesi is a malaria of macaques which is now recognised as a leading cause of human malaria in Malaysia. Although current human infections are a result of human-macaque contact, there is a potential for P. knowlesi to be transmitted solely among humans. The authors developed a multi-host, multi-site transmission model to assess the likelihood of this happening due to increased human-macaque contact as a consequence of deforestation, population growth, and land-use change. How effective currently available malaria control measures were against P. knowlesi was also an important issue that was explored using the model. Although the model predicts that conventional control measures will be sufficient against P. knowlesi, with the push to eliminate malaria by the end of 2015, it is crucial to be aware of zoonotic malarias which may undermine such efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Plasmodium knowlesi is now recognised as a leading cause of malaria in Malaysia. As humans come into increasing contact with the reservoir host (long-tailed macaques) as a consequence of deforestation, assessing the potential for a shift from zoonotic to sustained P. knowlesi transmission between humans is critical. Methods: A multi-host, multi-site transmission model was developed, taking into account the three areas (forest, farm, and village) where transmission is thought to occur. Latin hypercube sampling of model parameters was used to identify parameter sets consistent with possible prevalence in macaques and humans inferred from observed data. We then explore the consequences of increasing human-macaque contact in the farm, the likely impact of rapid treatment, and the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in preventing wider spread of this emerging infection. Results: Identified model parameters were consistent with transmission being sustained by the macaques with spill over infections into the human population and with high overall basic reproduction numbers (up to 2267). The extent to which macaques forage in the farms had a non-linear relationship with human infection prevalence, the highest prevalence occurring when macaques forage in the farms but return frequently to the forest where they experience higher contact with vectors and hence sustain transmission. Only one of 1,046 parameter sets was consistent with sustained human-to-human transmission in the absence of macaques, although with a low human reproduction number (R0H = 1.04). Simulations showed LLINs and rapid treatment provide personal protection to humans with maximal estimated reductions in human prevalence of 42% and 95%, respectively. Conclusion: This model simulates conditions where P. knowlesi transmission may occur and the potential impact of control measures. Predictions suggest that conventional control measures are sufficient at reducing the risk of infection in humans, but they must be actively implemented if P. knowlesi is to be controlled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spray programs for malaria control are entirely dependent on pyrethroid insecticides. The ubiquitous exposure of Anopheles mosquitoes to this chemistry has selected for resistance in a number of populations. This threatens the sustainability of our most effective interventions but no operationally practicable way of resolving the problem currently exists. One innovative solution involves the co-application of a powerful chemosterilant (pyriproxyfen or PPF) to bed nets that are usually treated only with pyrethroids. Resistant mosquitoes that are unaffected by the pyrethroid component of a PPF/pyrethroid co-treatment remain vulnerable to PPF. There is a differential impact of PPF on pyrethroid-resistant and susceptible mosquitoes that is modulated by the mosquito’s behavioural response at co-treated surfaces. This imposes a specific fitness cost on pyrethroid-resistant phenotypes and can reverse selection. The concept is demonstrated using a mathematical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccination with the pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine RTS,S induces high levels of antibodies and CD4+ T cells specific for the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). Using a biologically-motivated mathematical model of sporozoite infection fitted to data from malaria-naive adults vaccinated with RTS,S and subjected to experimental P. falciparum challenge, we characterised the relationship between antibodies, CD4+ T cell responses and protection from infection. Both anti-CSP antibody titres and CSP-specific CD4+ T cells were identified as immunological surrogates of protection, with RTS,S induced anti-CSP antibodies estimated to prevent 32% (95% confidence interval (CI) 24%–41%) of infections. The addition of RTS,S-induced CSP-specific CD4+ T cells was estimated to increase vaccine efficacy against infection to 40% (95% CI, 34%–48%). This protective efficacy is estimated to result from a 96.1% (95% CI, 93.4%–97.8%) reduction in the liver-to-blood parasite inoculum, indicating that in volunteers who developed P. falciparum infection, a small number of parasites (often the progeny of a single surviving sporozoite) are responsible for breakthrough blood-stage infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccination with the pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine RTS,S induces high levels of antibodies and CD4(+) T cells specific for the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). Using a biologically-motivated mathematical model of sporozoite infection fitted to data from malaria-naive adults vaccinated with RTS,S and subjected to experimental P. falciparum challenge, we characterised the relationship between antibodies, CD4(+) T cell responses and protection from infection. Both anti-CSP antibody titres and CSP-specific CD4(+) T cells were identified as immunological surrogates of protection, with RTS,S induced anti-CSP antibodies estimated to prevent 32% (95% confidence interval (CI) 24%-41%) of infections. The addition of RTS,S-induced CSP-specific CD4(+) T cells was estimated to increase vaccine efficacy against infection to 40% (95% CI, 34%-48%). This protective efficacy is estimated to result from a 96.1% (95% CI, 93.4%-97.8%) reduction in the liver-to-blood parasite inoculum, indicating that in volunteers who developed P. falciparum infection, a small number of parasites (often the progeny of a single surviving sporozoite) are responsible for breakthrough blood-stage infections.

We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).