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Coral reefs are in global decline, with coral diseases increasing both in prevalence and in space, a situation that is expected only to worsen as future thermal stressors increase. Through intense surveillance, we have collected a unique and highly resolved dataset from the coral reef of Eilat (Israel, Red Sea), that documents the spatiotemporal dynamics of a White Plague Disease (WPD) outbreak over the course of a full season. Based on modern statistical methodologies, we develop a novel spatial epidemiological model that uses a maximum-likelihood procedure to fit the data and assess the transmission pattern of WPD. We link the model to sea surface temperature (SST) and test the possible effect of increasing temperatures on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that the likelihood of a susceptible coral to become infected is governed both by SST and by its spatial location relative to nearby infected corals. The model shows that the magnitude of WPD epidemics strongly depends on demographic circumstances; under one extreme, when recruitment is free-space regulated and coral density remains relatively constant, even an increase of only 0.5°C in SST can cause epidemics to double in magnitude. In reality, however, the spatial nature of transmission can effectively protect the community, restricting the magnitude of annual epidemics. This is because the probability of susceptible corals to become infected is negatively associated with coral density. Based on our findings, we expect that infectious diseases having a significant spatial component, such as Red-Sea WPD, will never lead to a complete destruction of the coral community under increased thermal stress. However, this also implies that signs of recovery of local coral communities may be misleading; indicative more of spatial dynamics than true rehabilitation of these communities. In contrast to earlier generic models, our approach captures dynamics of WPD both in space and time, accounting for the highly seasonal nature of annual WPD outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The coral reefs of Zanzibar Island (Unguja, Tanzania) encompass a considerable proportion of the global coralreef diversity and are representative of the western Indian Ocean region. Unfortunately, these reefs have been recently subjected to local and regional disturbances. The objectives of this study were to determine whether there are potentially non-random processes forcing the observed coral diversity patterns, and highlight where and at which spatial scales these processes might be most influential. Methodology/Principal Findings: A hierarchical (nested) sampling design was employed across three spatial scales, ranging from transects (≤20 m), stations (<100 m), to sites (<1000 m), to examine coral diversity patterns. Two of the four sites, Chumbe and Mnemba, were located within Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), while the other two sites, Changuu and Bawe, were not protected. Additive partitioning of coral diversity was used to separate regional (total) diversity (c) into local a diversity and among-sample b diversity components. Individual-based null models were used to identify deviations from random distribution across the three spatial scales. We found that Chumbe and Mnemba had similar diversity components to those predicted by the null models. However, the diversity at Changuu and Bawe was lower than expected at all three spatial scales tested. Consequently, the relative contribution of the among-site diversity component was significantly greater than expected. Applying partitioning analysis for each site separately revealed that the within-transect diversity component in Changuu was significantly lower than the null expectation. Conclusions/Significance: The non-random outcome of the partitioning analyses helped to identify the among-sites scale (i.e., 10's of kilometers) and the within-transects scale (i.e., a few meters; especially at Changuu) as spatial boundaries within which to examine the processes that may interact and disproportionately differentiate coral diversity. In light of coral community compositions and diversity patterns we strongly recommend that Bawe be declared a MPA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Transmission mechanisms of black-band disease (BBD) in coral reefs are poorly understood, although this disease is considered to be one of the most widespread and destructive coral infectious diseases. The major objective of this study was to assess transmission mechanisms of BBD in the field based on the spatio-temporal patterns of the disease. Methodology/Principal Findings: 3,175 susceptible and infected corals were mapped over an area of 10×10 m in Eilat (northern Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea) and the distribution of the disease was examined monthly throughout almost two full disease cycles (June 2006-December 2007). Spatial and spatio-temporal analyses were applied to infer the transmission pattern of the disease and to calculate key epidemiological parameters such as R0 (basic reproduction number). We show that the prevalence of the disease is strongly associated with high water temperature. When water temperatures rise and disease prevalence increases, infected corals exhibit aggregated distributions on small spatial scales of up to 1.9 m. Additionally, newly-infected corals clearly appear in proximity to existing infected corals and in a few cases in direct contact with them. We also present and test a model of water-borne infection, indicating that the likelihood of a susceptible coral becoming infected is defined by its spatial location and by the relative spatial distribution of nearby infected corals found in the site. Conclusions/Significance: Our results provide evidence that local transmission, but not necessarily by direct contact, is likely to be an important factor in the spread of the disease over the tested spatial scale. In the absence of potential disease vectors with limited mobility (e.g., snails, fireworms) in the studied site, water-borne infection is likely to be a significant transmission mechanism of BBD. Our suggested model of water-borne transmission supports this hypothesis. The spatiotemporal analysis also points out that infected corals surviving a disease season appear to play a major role in the reintroduction of the disease to the coral community in the following season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]