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PurposeThe aim of this experimental study was to investigate whether paper-and-pencil and computerized surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent data quality indicators and risk behavior prevalence estimates.MethodsData were drawn from the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD®) carried out in Italy to monitor drug, alcohol, tobacco use and other risk-behaviors among Italian high school students aged 15-19 years. A sub-sample of schools was recruited for the study (1673 pupils). For each school, two entire randomly selected courses (from the first to the fifth grade) participated and were assigned randomly to the self-administered paper-and-pencil (N = 811) or computerized survey (N = 862). Differences in data quality were assessed using the following indicators: questionnaire completeness (missing gender and/or 50% of missing answers) and internal consistency (repetitive extreme response patterns). Separate logistic regression models were used to estimate the mode effect on the reporting of each risk behavior, controlling for gender and age. Finally, the prevalence estimates of the experimental study were compared to the results of the national ESPAD® study.ResultsThe computerized administration mode produced a higher proportion of invalid questionnaires, but the prevalence estimates generated from responses to the paper-and-pencil and computerized surveys were generally equivalent. Nevertheless, comparing these results with those of the national ESPAD® study, some differences in the prevalence rates were found.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that in a proctored school setting, the computerized survey mode yields almost the same results as the paper-and-pencil mode. However, because of the reliance on existing informatics facilities until when all schools in the country will be sufficiently equipped for the computerized data collection, they should be given the opportunity to choose between paper-and-pencil and computerized survey modes, in order to avoid a possible selection bias.

Ifosfamide blood concentrations are necessary to monitor its therapeutic response, avoiding any adverse effect. We developed and validated an analytical method by UPLC-MS/MS to quantify ifosfamide in dried blood spots (DBS). Blood samples were collected on Whatman 903® filter paper cards. Five 3 mm disks were punched out from each dried blood spot. Acetonitrile and ethyl acetate were used for drug extraction. Chromatographic separation was carried out in an Acquity UPLC equipment with a BEH-C18 column, 2.1 x 100 mm, 1.7 μm (Waters®). The mobile phase consisted in 5 mM ammonium formate and methanol:acetonitrile (40:48:12 v/v/v) at 0.2 mL/min. LC-MS/MS detection was done by ESI+ and multiple reaction mode monitoring, ionic transitions were m/z1+ 260.99 > 91.63 for ifosfamide and 261.00 > 139.90 for cyclophosphamide (internal standard). This method was linear within a 100–10000 ng/mL range and it was accurate, precise and selective. Ifosfamide samples in DBS were stable for up to 52 days at -80°C. The procedure was tested in 14 patients, ages 1 month to 17 years (9 males and 5 females), with embryonic tumours treated with ifosfamide, alone or combined, at a public tertiary referral hospital. Ifosfamide blood levels ranged from 11.1 to 39.7 μmol/L at 12 hours after the last infusion, while 24-hour levels ranged from 0.7–19.7 μmol/L. The median at 12 hours was 19.5 μmol/L (Q25 14.4–Q75 29.0) and 3.8 μmol/L (Q25 1.5–Q75 9.9) at 24 hours, p

Ecological science focuses on the structure and function of the natural environment. However, the study of ecological environments primarily focuses on single-element research and lacks a comprehensive perspective. To examine ecological environmental trends on different scales, the present paper selected Yunnan Province as the study area. Chemical oxygen demand, rocky desertification, forest coverage, natural disaster data and spatial analysis methods were used to obtain the ecological environmental characteristics of each county and construct a comprehensive evaluation method of the ecological environment. The present paper revealed that the environmental capacity in Yunnan Province was at a moderate level, the ecological environment fragility was remarkable, the significance of the ecological environment was very high, natural disasters occurred frequently, and spatial differentiation between ecological environments was obvious. The province may be divided into three functional areas: the comprehensive-balanced area, the efficiency-dominated area and the environment-dominated area. Central Yunnan was a key development zone and the main area for the manufacturing and service industries, which were built as a modern industrial system in Yunnan Province. The ecological environment in northwestern Yunnan and southern Yunnan is of high significance, and this region was an ecological environment protection area that was important area for the construction of the modern agricultural system in Yunnan Province. To achieve sustainable development of the ecological environment, the spatial characteristics of the ecological environment must be determined at the county scale.

The 15-minute community life circle (15min-CLC) strategy is one of Shanghai’s important methods for building a global city and facing a society with a more diverse population structure in the future. In the existing research, the balance between the construction of the life circle and the needs of the people in the life circle still needs to be further fulfilled. This paper is based on the city’s multi-source large data set including 2018 AutoNavi POI (Point of Interests), OSM (OpenStreetMap) road network data and LandScan population data set, and evaluates the current status of Shanghai’s 15min-CLC through the fusion of kernel density estimation, service area analysis and other statistical models and proposes relevant optimization suggestions. The results show that there are the following shortcomings: (1) From the perspective of different types of infrastructure service facilities, the spatial construction of Shanghai’s overall life service facilities and shopping service facilities needs to be optimized. (2) From the perspective of comprehensive evaluation, the comprehensive service convenience of infrastructure service facilities in the downtown area is relatively high, while the comprehensive service convenience of urban infrastructure service facilities in the suburbs and outer suburbs is relatively low; The diversity of basic service facilities in the 15min-CLC in the downtown area is more consistent with the population distribution; However, in the peripheral areas of the urban area, too many infrastructure service facilities have been constructed. Based on the above shortcomings and the perspective of supply and demand matching, relevant optimization strategies are proposed in different regions and different types of infrastructure service facilities: (1) focus on the construction of basic service facilities in the urban fringe and urban-rural areas, improve the full coverage of the basic service facilities, and appropriately reduce the number of basic service facilities in the downtown area. (2) The development of community business models can be used to promote the development of new life service facilities and shopping service facilities. (3) Improve community medical institutions through facility function conversion, merger and reconstruction, etc. (4) Optimize the hierarchical basic service facility system and improve the population supporting facilities of basic service facilities in the 15min-CLC. This paper incorporates people’s needs and concerns on the living environment into the 15min-CLC evaluation model, and uses Shanghai as an example to conduct research, summarizes the existing shortcomings, and proposes corresponding optimization strategies based on the matching of supply and demand. This article attempts to explore a replicable 15min-CLC planning model, so that it can be extended to the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, to provide reference for further research on the 15min-CLC, and to promote urban construction under the concept of sustainable development.

Background A pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged and affected most of the world in early 2020. To inform effective public health measures we conducted a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey among a Hausa Muslim society in Nigeria in March 2020. Methods The study is an analytic cross-sectional survey with questionnaires administered to the general population including Health Care Workers (HCW) in Kano, Nigeria. Participants were recruited by convenience sampling following informed consent. The percentage of KAP scores were categorized as good and poor. Independent predictors of good knowledge of COVID 19 were ascertained using a binary logistic regression model. Results The questionnaire was administered among urban 32.8%, peri-urban dwellers 32.4%, and to online participants 34.8%. The peri-urban and urban participants were given paper questionnaires. There were 886 study participants with mean age 28.58yrs [SD:10.25] (Interquartile range [IQR]:22yrs–32yrs), males 55.4% with 57.3% having had or were in tertiary education. Most participants were students 40% and civil servants 20%. The overall mean [standard deviation (SD)] for knowledge, attitude and practice scores expressed in percentage was 65.38%[SD15.90], 71.45% [SD14.10], and 65.04% [SD17.02] respectively. Out of the respondents, 270(30.47%) had good knowledge (GK), 158(17.8%) had good attitude (GA), and 230(25.96%) had good practice (GP) using cut-off scores of 75%, 86.5%, and 75% respectively. Over 48% did not agree COVID-19 originated from animals while 60% perceived the pandemic to be due to God’s punishment. Also, 36% thought it was a man-made virus. When rating fear, most respondents [63.5%] had marked fear i.e. ≥ 7 out of 10 and 56% admitted to modifying their habits recently in fear of contracting the virus. As regards attitude to religious norms, 77.77% agreed on cancellation of the lesser pilgrimage as a measure to curb the spread of the disease while 23.64% admitted that greater pilgrimage (Hajj) should proceed despite the persistence of the ongoing pandemic. About 50% of the respondents insisted on attending Friday congregational prayers despite social distancing. One in four people still harbored stigma towards a person who has recovered from the virus. 28% felt some races are more at risk of the disease though 66% mentioned always practicing social distancing from persons coughing or sneezing. Almost 70% of respondents said they were willing to accept a vaccine with 39% saying they would be willing to pay for it if not publicly funded. In univariate analysis increasing age and having been ever married were associated with GK while tertiary education was associated with GA [Odds Ratio; 95% Confidence Interval] 2.66(1.79–3.95). Independent positive predictors of GK were those who were or had ever been married, those who had marked fear of COVID-19, and had modified their habits in the last three months. Those who had non-tertiary education and had the questionnaire administered as paper rather than online version had GK but age was not a predictor. Conclusion Knowledge of transmission and preventive measures should be improved in the general population cognizant of cultural norms and Islamic practices. The study highlights the importance of considering belief systems and perception in developing control measures against COVID-19.

The literature on growth convergence has focused to a great extent on the role of initial incomes as a primary determinant of long-term growth outcomes. Expanded versions of growth models have used other explanators to unpack the growth process. In this paper we add to the literature in two significant ways: (a) we use socioeconomic variables that are sometimes overlooked in explaining growth (such as, political stability and political alliance, social heterogeneity, and demographic distribution), and (b) we demonstrate that earlier analyses may be overlooking the problem of normality and endogeneity in regression models (and we provide alternate methods like instrumental variable and distribution dynamics to control for these). In this paper we analyze the per capita income growth at the subnational level in India for the period 1981-82 to 2010-11 using an expanded growth framework. We find that initial incomes, the ratio of working age group to total population, political stability and alliance, and the extent of development expenditure play a positive and significant role in predicting growth. We also find that, contrary to popular belief, the presence of marginalized groups-namely Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes-have not been a hindrance to growth of per capita incomes in states. Our findings on the influence of social institutions may have significant implications for a public policy of affirmative action in India. The results on the impact of development expenditure on growth is also important for states seeking to increase their growth rates through policy intervention.

In this study, it was investigated whether early tweets counts could differentially benefit female and male (first, last) authors in terms of the later citation counts received. The data for this study comprised 47,961 articles in the research area of Life Sciences & Biomedicine from 2014-2016, retrieved from Web of Science's Medline. For each article, the number of received citations per year was downloaded from WOS, while the number of received tweets per year was obtained from PlumX. Using the hurdle regression model, I compared the number of received citations by female and male (first, last) authored papers and then I investigated whether early tweet counts could predict the later citation counts received by female and male (first, last) authored papers. In the regression models, I controlled for several important factors that were investigated in previous research in relation to citation counts, gender or Altmetrics. These included journal impact (SNIP), number of authors, open access, research funding, topic of an article, international collaboration, lay summary, F1000 Score and mega journal. The findings showed that the percentage of papers with male authors in first or last authorship positions was higher than that for female authors. However, female first and last-authored papers had a small but significant citation advantage of 4.7% and 5.5% compared to male-authored papers. The findings also showed that irrespective of whether the factors were included in regression models or not, early tweet counts had a weak positive and significant association with the later citations counts (3.3%) and the probability of a paper being cited (21.1%). Regarding gender, the findings showed that when all variables were controlled, female (first, last) authored papers had a small citation advantage of 3.7% and 4.2% in comparison to the male authored papers for the same number of tweets.

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development.

The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they can be expensive and time-intensive, limiting their use to specific population subgroups. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach that combines estimated (1) infection fatality rates (IFR) using a Bayesian melding SEIR model with (2) reported case-fatality rates (CFR) in order to indirectly estimate the fraction of people ever infected (from the total population) and detected (from the ever infected). We apply the technique to the U.S. due to their remarkable regional diversity and because they count with almost a quarter of all global confirmed cases and deaths. We obtain that the IFR varies from 1.25% (0.39–2.16%, 90% CI) in Florida, the most aged population, to 0.69% in Utah (0.21–1.30%, 90% CI), the youngest population. By September 8, 2020, we estimate that at least five states have already a fraction of people ever infected between 10% and 20% (New Jersey, New York, Massachussets, Connecticut, and District of Columbia). The state with the highest estimated fraction of people ever infected is New Jersey with 17.3% (10.0, 55.8, 90% CI). Moreover, our results indicate that with a probability of 90 percent the fraction of detected people among the ever infected since the beginning of the epidemic has been less than 50% in 15 out of the 20 states analyzed in this paper. Our approach can be a valuable tool that complements seroprevalence studies and indicates how efficient have testing policies been since the beginning of the outbreak.

Norwegian Health authorities recommend solid food to be introduced between child age 4-6 months, depending on both the mother´s and infant's needs. The aim of this paper is to describe timing of complementary feeding in a current sample of Norwegian mother/infant-dyads and explore potential associations between timing of introduction to solid foods and a wide range of maternal and infant characteristics known from previous literature to influence early feeding interactions. The paper is based on data from the Norwegian randomized controlled trial Early Food for Future Health. In 2016, a total of 715 mothers completed a web-based questionnaire at child age 5.5 months. We found that 5% of the infants were introduced to solid food before 4 months of age, while 14% were not introduced to solid food at 5.5 months of age. Introduction of solid food before 4 months of age was associated with the infant not being exclusive breastfed the first month, receiving only formula milk at 3 months, the mother being younger, not married/cohabitant, smoking, less educated and having more economic difficulties. Not being introduced to solid food at 5.5 months was associated with the infant being a girl, being exclusive breastfed the first month, receiving only breastmilk at 3 months, the mother being older, married and having 3 or more children. This study shows that there are still clear socioeconomic differences regarding timing of complementary feeding in Norway. Infants of younger, less educated and smoking mothers are at higher risk of not being fed in compliance with the official infant feeding recommendations. Our findings emphasize the importance of targeting socioeconomically disadvantaged mothers for support on healthy feeding practices focusing on the infant`s needs to prevent early onset of social inequalities in health.

Introduction Dengue is a rapidly emerging vector-borne Neglected Tropical Disease, with a 30-fold increase in the number of cases reported since 1960. The economic cost of the illness is measured in the billions of dollars annually. Environmental change and unplanned urbanization are conspiring to raise the health and economic cost even further beyond the reach of health systems and households. The health-sector response has depended in large part on control of the Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus (mosquito) vectors. The cost-effectiveness of the first-ever dengue vaccine remains to be evaluated in the field. In this paper, we examine how it might affect the cost-effectiveness of sustained vector control. Methods We employ a dynamic Markov model of the effects of vector control on dengue in both vectors and humans over a 15-year period, in six countries: Brazil, Columbia, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand. We evaluate the cost (direct medical costs and control programme costs) and cost-effectiveness of sustained vector control, outbreak response and/or medical case management, in the presence of a (hypothetical) highly targeted and low cost immunization strategy using a (non-hypothetical) medium-efficacy vaccine. Results Sustained vector control using existing technologies would cost little more than outbreak response, given the associated costs of medical case management. If sustained use of existing or upcoming technologies (of similar price) reduce vector populations by 70–90%, the cost per disability-adjusted life year averted is 2013 US$ 679–1331 (best estimates) relative to no intervention. Sustained vector control could be highly cost-effective even with less effective technologies (50–70% reduction in vector populations) and in the presence of a highly targeted and low cost immunization strategy using a medium-efficacy vaccine. Discussion Economic evaluation of the first-ever dengue vaccine is ongoing. However, even under very optimistic assumptions about a highly targeted and low cost immunization strategy, our results suggest that sustained vector control will continue to play an important role in mitigating the impact of environmental change and urbanization on human health. If additional benefits for the control of other Aedes borne diseases, such as Chikungunya, yellow fever and Zika fever are taken into account, the investment case is even stronger. High-burden endemic countries should proceed to map populations to be covered by sustained vector control., Author summary Transmitted by the Aedes mosquito, dengue affects more than 100 countries and is rapidly emerging as the leading vector-borne disease. There has been a 30-fold increase in the number of cases reported since 1960. The cost of the illness to the health system and to society at large is estimated at several billions of dollars annually. The health sector response has depended in large part on controlling mosquito populations during outbreaks. Recently, the first-ever dengue vaccine received regulatory approval for use in several countries. However, its roll-out and long-term impact still needs to be evaluated in the field. In this paper, we examine how the introduction of this vaccine might alter the investment case for sustained effort to control mosquitoes. To our knowledge, this is the first economic evaluation of mosquito control in the era of the dengue vaccine. We model the cost and effects of mosquito control in Brazil, Columbia, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mosquito control in the presence of a vaccine that does not offer full protection to all individuals. Our results suggest that sustained mosquito control will continue to be cost-effective, even if roll-out of the current vaccine is highly targeted and low-cost. These results support current global policies and strategies for the prevention and control of dengue.

Objective This paper reflected on the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in Bangladesh, which is spreading rapidly in low-income countries. The rationale of constructing more health centers for addressing NCDs was assessed in this paper by determining the relationship between prevalence of NCDs, particularly hypertension and diabetes, and distance to health facilities. Methods From BDHS (Bangladesh Health and Demographic Survey) 2011 data set, 7544 samples were analyzed to demonstrate association between Non-communicable diseases (NCD) and distance from respondents’ home to health facilities like hospitals, community clinics, pharmacies or doctors’ chambers, and community facilities like market, post office or cinema hall. Bivariate analysis was conducted between accessibility to health facilities and prevalence of the diseases. The causal relationship between the spatial effects and the prevalence of the diseases were analyzed by applying Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) was fitted. Results Fitting linear mixed effect models, we found that hypertension and diabetes react differently with various spatial effects. Distance from home to hospital had significant effect (P < 0.001) on hypertension showing people living further from the facilities or town centers seemed to be less hypertensive, whereas diabetes showed no such affiliation. Conclusion Higher prevalence of diabetes (40.9%) over hypertension (26.5%) in people aging 35 or higher, have appeared to have caused the difference, which concluded that each non-communicable disease should be dealt to its own merit for policy making instead considering as a group of diseases.

ObjectivesLittle is known about the gender and age differences associated with the effects of economic fluctuations on hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases. This paper investigates the impact of economic fluctuations on hospitalization for ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and hypertension by age and gender between January 1996 and December 2012 in Taiwan.MethodsWe adopted a multiple-input time series analysis to examine the strength of the immediate and latent effects of the 17-year quarterly unemployment rates (UR), air pollution exposure (APE), gross domestic product (GDP), per capita consumption expenditure in cigarette and alcohol (ECA), and per capita healthcare expenditure (HE) on the adjusted quarterly incidence rate of hospitalization. The data used in this paper were retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database and the website of the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), Executive Yuan.ResultsOur findings indicate that higher UR increased IHD hospitalization in young men and women and middle-aged women but reduced stroke hospitalization in young men. Higher APE increased IHD hospitalization in young men but reduced it for young women, increased stroke hospitalization in old men and middle-aged women but reduced it for young men, and increased hypertension hospitalization in middle-aged men and young women. Higher ECA reduced IHD hospitalization in middle-aged men, increased stoke hospitalization in middle-aged and old men and middle-aged women. Higher HE reduced IHD hospitalization in old men, young and old women, reduced stroke hospitalization in old women, and reduced hypertension hospitalization in young and middle-aged women.ConclusionsOverall, we found that the economic fluctuations caused increased harmful effects in certain population subgroups but also brought some soothing effects to some groups.

We used a retrospective cohort study to measure the impact of caring for children on female Australian researchers. Our aim was to see whether caring for children was associated with reduced outputs and collaboration. Women were randomly selected for inclusion if they published a first author paper in one of three Australian journals during 2007 to 2015, women who did not publish during this time were not included. One-hundred and sixty women were approached and 95 (59%) completed a survey on their history of caring for children. Two key outcomes were the women’s publication and citation counts, which were accessed from Scopus. We also examined the number of authors, affiliations and countries on their published papers, as a reduction in these numbers could indicate an impaired ability to collaborate. We examined the probability of being first or last author as a measure of esteem. There was a small increase in publication counts after the first child that was reversed after the second child. Average citations counts declined after children, particularly after the second child. There was some evidence of a reduced collaboration with overseas collaborators after the first child. The probability of being the last author increased after the second child. Three women were identified as statistically influential and all three had children and were in the top 10% of overall publications and citations. After removing these women the estimated changes in outcomes were noticeably different for most of the outcomes. The repeated presence of statistically influential women shows that it may be impossible to find an “average impact” of caring for children when considering research output. Adjustments may need to be made individually, with women explaining how caring for children has altered their career.

Objectives Research about the mental health of children in Francophone West Africa is scarce. This paper examines the relationships between adverse childhood experiences, including exposure to violence and exploitation, and mental health outcomes among children living in ultra-poverty in rural Burkina Faso. Methods This paper utilizes baseline data collected from 360 children ages 10–15 and 360 of their mothers recruited from twelve impoverished villages in the Nord Region of Burkina, located near the Sahel Desert and affected by extreme food insecurity. We used a Latent Class Analysis to identify underlying patterns of maltreatment. Further, the relationships between latent classes and mental health outcomes were tested using mixed effected regression models adjusted for clustering within villages. Results About 15% of the children in the study scored above the clinical cut-off for depression, 17.8% for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and 6.4% for low self-esteem. The study identified five distinct sub-groups (or classes) of children based on their exposure to adverse childhood experiences. Children with the highest exposure to violence at home, at work and in the community (Abused and Exploited class) and children not attending school and working for other households, often away from their families (External Laborer class), demonstrated highest symptoms of depression and trauma. Despite living in adverse conditions and working to assist families, the study also identified a class of children who were not exposed to any violence at home or at work (Healthy and Non-abused class). Children in this class demonstrated significantly higher self-esteem (b = 0.92, SE = 0.45, p

Background The report of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) for World AIDS Day 2014 highlighted a Fast-Track Strategy that sets ambitious treatment and prevention targets to reduce global HIV incidence to manageable levels by 2020 and end the AIDS epidemic by 2030. The 90-90-90 treatment targets for 2020 call for 90% of people living with HIV to know their HIV status, 90% of people who know their status to receive treatment, and 90% of people on HIV treatment to be virally suppressed. This paper examines how scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services in four priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa could contribute to ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 in the context of concerted efforts to close the treatment gap, and what the impact of VMMC scale-up would be if the 90-90-90 treatment targets were not completely met. Methods Using the Goals module of the Spectrum suite of models, this analysis modified ART (antiretroviral treatment) scale-up coverage from base scenarios to reflect the 90-90-90 treatment targets in four countries (Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, and Uganda). In addition, a second scenario was created to reflect viral suppression levels of 75% instead of 90%, and a third scenario was created in which the 90-90-90 treatment targets are reached in women, with men reaching more moderate coverage levels. Regarding male circumcision (MC) coverage, the analysis examined both a scenario in which VMMCs were assumed to stop after 2015, and one in which MC coverage was scaled up to 90% by 2020 and maintained at 90% thereafter. Results Across all four countries, scaling up VMMC is projected to provide further HIV incidence reductions in addition to those achieved by reaching the 90-90-90 treatment targets. If viral suppression levels only reach 75%, scaling up VMMC leads to HIV incidence reduction to nearly the same levels as those achieved with 90-90-90 without VMMC scale-up. If only women reach the 90-90-90 targets, scaling up VMMC brings HIV incidence down to near the levels projected with 90-90-90 without VMMC scale-up. Regarding cost, scaling up VMMC increases the annual costs during the scale-up phase, but leads to lower annual costs after the MC coverage target is achieved. Conclusions The scenarios modeled in this paper show that the highly durable and effective male circumcision intervention increases epidemic impact levels over those of treatment-only strategies, including the case if universal levels of viral suppression in men and women are not achieved by 2020. In the context of 90-90-90, prioritizing continued successful scale-up of VMMC increases the possibility that future generations will be free not only of AIDS but also of HIV.

Introduction From 1990–2010, worldwide child mortality declined by 43%, and maternal mortality declined by 40%. This paper compares two sources of progress: improvements in societal coverage of health determinants versus improvements in the impact of health determinants as a result of technical change. Methods This paper decomposes the progress made by 146 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in lowering childhood and maternal mortality into one component due to better health determinants like literacy, income, and health coverage and a second component due to changes in the impact of these health determinants. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Regression models are used to estimate impact size in 1990 and again in 2010. Changes in the levels of health determinants were measured using secondary data. Findings The model shows that respectively 100% and 89% of the reductions in maternal and child mortality since 1990 were due to improvements in nationwide coverage of health determinants. The relative share of overall improvement attributable to any single determinant varies by country and by model specification. However, in aggregate, approximately 50% of the mortality reductions were due to improvements in the health sector, and the other 50% of the mortality reductions were due to gains outside the health sector. Conclusions Overall, countries improved maternal and child health (MCH) from 1990 to 2010 mainly through improvements in the societal coverage of a broad array of health system, social, economic and environmental determinants of child health. These findings vindicate efforts by the global community to obtain such improvements, and align with the post-2015 development agenda that builds on the lessons from the MDGs and highlights the importance of promoting health and sustainable development in a more integrated manner across sectors.

Birth registration and obtaining physical birth certificates impose major challenges in developing countries, with impact on child and community health, education, planning, and all levels of development. However despite initiatives, universal registration is elusive, leading to calls for new approaches to understanding the decisions of parents. In this paper, we report results of a survey of students in grades six to eight (age ~12–16) in an under-registered area of Kenya regarding their own understanding of registration issues and their suggestions for improvement. These students were selected because they themselves were also nearing the age for high school enrollment/entrance examinations, which specifically requires possession of a birth certificate. This assessment was also a companion to our previous representative survey of adults in the same Kenyan region, allowing for parent-child comparison. Results supported previous research, showing that only 43% had birth certificates. At the same time, despite these low totals, students were themselves quite aware of registration factors and purposes. The students also made quite prescient sources for understanding their households’ motivations, with many of their suggestions—for focus on communication of pragmatic benefits, or automatic measures shifting responsibility from parents—mirroring our own previous suggestions, and showing a level of pragmatism not witnessed when surveying their parents. This paper therefore adds evidence to the discussion of registration policy planning. More generally, it also builds on an important trend regarding the treatment of children as stakeholders and important sources of information, and raising an intriguing new avenue for future research.

Background Our daily activities imply displacements on various types of soil. For persons with gait disorder or losing functional autonomy, walking on some types of soil could be challenging because of the risk of falling it represents. Methods In this paper, we present, in a first part, the use of an enactive shoe for an automatic differentiation of several types of soil. In a second part, using a second improved prototype (an enactive insole), twelve participants with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and nine age-matched controls have performed the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test on six types of soil with and without cueing. The frequency of the cueing was set at 10% above the cadence computed at the lower risk of falling (walking over the concrete). Depending on the cadence computed at the lower risk, the enactive insole activates a vibrotactile cueing aiming to improve gait and balance control. Finally, a risk index is computed using gait parameters in relation to given type of soil. Results The frequency analysis of the heel strike vibration allows the differentiation of various types of soil. The risk computed is associated to an appropriate rhythmic cueing in order to improve balance and gait impairment. The results show that a vibrotactile cueing could help to reduce the risk of falling. Conclusions Firstly, this paper demonstrates the feasibility of reducing the risk of falling while walking on different types of soil using vibrotactile cueing. We found a significant difference and a significant decrease in the computed risks of falling for most of types of soil especially for deformable soils which can lead to fall. Secondly, heel strike provides an approximation of the impulse response of the soil that can be analyzed with time and frequency-domain modeling. From these analyses, an index is computed enabling differentiation the types of soil.

Voluntary medical male circumcision is an integral part of the South African government’s response to the HIV and AIDS epidemic. Following circumcision, it is recommended that patients abstain from sexual activity for six weeks, as sex may increase the risk of female-to-male HIV transmission and prolong the healing period. This paper investigates the resumption of sexual activity during the healing period among a cohort of school-going males in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The analysis for this paper compares two groups of sexually active school-going males: the first group reported having sex during the healing period (n = 40) and the second group (n = 98) reported no sex during the healing period (mean age: 17.7, SD: 1.7).The results show that 29% (n = 40) of young males (mean age: 17.9, SD: 1.8) who were previously sexually active, resumed sexual activity during the healing period, had on average two partners and used condoms inconsistently. In addition, those males that engage in sexual activity during the healing period were less inclined to practice safe sex in the future (AOR = 0.055, p = 0.002) than the group of males who reported no sex during the healing period. These findings suggest that a significant proportion of young males may currently and in the future, subject themselves to high levels of risk for contracting HIV post circumcision. Education, as part of a VMMC campaign, must emphasize the high risk of HIV transmission for both the males their partners during the healing period.

With the rapid development of ICT and Web technologies, a large an amount of information is becoming available and this is producing, in some instances, a condition of information overload. Under these conditions, it is difficult for a person to locate and access useful information for making decisions. To address this problem, there are information filtering systems, such as the personalized recommendation system (PRS) considered in this paper, that assist a person in identifying possible products or services of interest based on his/her preferences. Among available approaches, collaborative Filtering (CF) is one of the most widely used recommendation techniques. However, CF has some limitations, e.g., the relatively simple similarity calculation, cold start problem, etc. In this context, this paper presents a new regression model based on the support vector machine (SVM) classification and an improved PSO (IPSO) for the development of an electronic movie PRS. In its implementation, a SVM classification model is first established to obtain a preliminary movie recommendation list based on which a SVM regression model is applied to predict movies’ ratings. The proposed PRS not only considers the movie’s content information but also integrates the users’ demographic and behavioral information to better capture the users’ interests and preferences. The efficiency of the proposed method is verified by a series of experiments based on the MovieLens benchmark data set.

Scholars (n = 580) from 69 countries who had contributed articles in the field of Economics during the year 2015 participated in a survey that gauged their perceptions of various aspects of co-authorship, including its benefits, motivations, working relationships, order of authorship and association preferences. Among the main findings, significant differences emerged in the proportion of co-authored papers based on age, gender and number of years the researchers had spent in their present institution. Female scholars had a greater proportion of co-authored papers than male scholars. Respondents considered improved quality of paper, contribution of mutual expertise, and division of labor as the biggest benefits of and motivation for co-authorship. Contrary to common perceptions that Economics researchers used a predominantly alphabetical order of authorship, our study found that a considerable percentage of respondents (34.5%) had practiced an order of authorship based on the significance of the authors' contribution to the work. The relative importance of tasks differed significantly according to whether researchers co-authored as mentors or co-authored as colleagues. Lastly, researchers were found to associate, to varying degrees, with other researchers based on socio-academic parameters, such as nationality, ethnicity, gender, professional position and friendship. The study indicates that Economics authors perceive co-authorship as a rewarding endeavor. Nonetheless, the level of contribution and even the choice of association itself as a co-author depends to a great extent on the type of working relationship and socio-academic factors.

Background While the high prevalence of preterm births and its impact on infant mortality in the US have been widely acknowledged, recent data suggest that even full-term births in the US face substantially higher mortality risks compared to European countries with low infant mortality rates. In this paper, we use the most recent birth records in the US to more closely analyze the primary causes underlying mortality rates among full-term births. Methods and findings Linked birth and death records for the period 2010–2012 were used to identify the state- and cause-specific burden of infant mortality among full-term infants (born at 37–42 weeks of gestation). Multivariable logistic models were used to assess the extent to which state-level differences in full-term infant mortality (FTIM) were attributable to observed differences in maternal and birth characteristics. Random effects models were used to assess the relative contribution of state-level variation to FTIM. Hypothetical mortality outcomes were computed under the assumption that all states could achieve the survival rates of the best-performing states. A total of 10,175,481 infants born full-term in the US between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2012, were analyzed. FTIM rate (FTIMR) was 2.2 per 1,000 live births overall, and ranged between 1.29 (Connecticut, 95% CI 1.08, 1.53) and 3.77 (Mississippi, 95% CI 3.39, 4.19) at the state level. Zero states reached the rates reported in the 6 low-mortality European countries analyzed (FTIMR < 1.25), and 13 states had FTIMR > 2.75. Sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) accounted for 43% of FTIM; congenital malformations and perinatal conditions accounted for 31% and 11.3% of FTIM, respectively. The largest mortality differentials between states with good and states with poor FTIMR were found for SUDI, with particularly large risk differentials for deaths due to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (odds ratio [OR] 2.52, 95% CI 1.86, 3.42) and suffocation (OR 4.40, 95% CI 3.71, 5.21). Even though these mortality differences were partially explained by state-level differences in maternal education, race, and maternal health, substantial state-level variation in infant mortality remained in fully adjusted models (SIDS OR 1.45, suffocation OR 2.92). The extent to which these state differentials are due to differential antenatal care standards as well as differential access to health services could not be determined due to data limitations. Overall, our estimates suggest that infant mortality could be reduced by 4,003 deaths (95% CI 2,284, 5,587) annually if all states were to achieve the mortality levels of the best-performing state in each cause-of-death category. Key limitations of the analysis are that information on termination rates at the state level was not available, and that causes of deaths may have been coded differentially across states. Conclusions More than 7,000 full-term infants die in the US each year. The results presented in this paper suggest that a substantial share of these deaths may be preventable. Potential improvements seem particularly large for SUDI, where very low rates have been achieved in a few states while average mortality rates remain high in most other areas. Given the high mortality burden due to SIDS and suffocation, policy efforts to promote compliance with recommended sleeping arrangements could be an effective first step in this direction., Using state-level birth and death records, Neha Bairoliya identify state- and cause specific burden of infant mortality among full-term infants in the United States, and uncover opportunities for improvement., Author summary Why was this study done? High infant mortality rates in the US compared to other high-income countries have been well documented in the literature. Most of this literature primarily attributes high infant mortality in the US to the high rates of prematurity. Relatively little is known regarding the survival of infants born full-term. What did the researchers do and find? We compared state-level mortality rates among full-term infants in the US to that of 6 European countries with low mortality rates. We showed that infants born full-term in the US face 50%–200% higher risks of infant mortality compared to these European countries. We found that the largest proportion of infant deaths among children born full-term in the US was due to sudden unexpected deaths of infants, which comprised both sudden infant death syndrome and other unexpected causes such as suffocation and violence. What do these findings mean? Major improvements in full-term infant mortality (through increases in full-term infant survival and increases in pregnancy terminations) seem possible in the US. More research is needed to identify the most effective policies to achieve this objective.

Land tenure and tenure security are among the most important factors determining the viability and success of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) initiatives. The premise of the present paper is that territorial conflicts lead to forest loss and compromise the successful implementation of REDD+. Within this context, the main objectives of this paper are to (i) document, relying on participatory methods, the extent to which land conflicts drive deforestation and (ii) reflect on the legal context of REDD+ examining if, from an Indigenous perspective, it offers tools to resolve such conflicts. We used the Upper Bayano Watershed in eastern Panama as a case study of complex land tenure dynamics, and their effects on forest conservation in the context of REDD+. Combining a range of participatory methods including participatory mapping and forest carbon stock assessment, we estimated the consequences of land invasions on forest carbon stocks. Our analysis shows that invasions of Indigenous territories amounted to 27.6% of the total deforestation for the period of 2001-2014. The situation is of paramount concern in the Embera territory of Majé where 95.4% of total deforestation was caused by colonist invaders. Using and validating the maps made freely available by the Global Forest Change initiative of the University of Maryland, we then developed a reference level for the watershed and carried out a back of the envelop estimation of likely REDD+ revenue, showing its potential to bring much needed income to Indigenous communities striving to protect their forest estate. Our analysis of current legislation in Panama highlights confusion and important legal voids and emphasizes the strong links between land tenure, carbon ownership, and territorial invasions. The options and shortcoming of implementing REDD+ in Indigenous territories is discussed in the conclusion taking our legal review into account.

Background Over the last few years, momentum has gathered around the feasibility and opportunity of eliminating gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT). Under the leadership of the World Health Organization (WHO), a large coalition of stakeholders is now committed to achieving this goal. A roadmap has been laid out, and indicators and milestones have been defined to monitor the progress of the elimination of g-HAT as a public health problem by 2020. Subsequently, a more ambitious objective was set for 2030: to stop disease transmission. This paper provides a situational update to 2012 for a number of indicators of elimination: number of cases annually reported, geographic distribution of the disease and areas and populations at different levels of risk. Results Comparing the 5-year periods 2003-2007 and 2008-2012, the area at high or very high risk of g-HAT shrank by 60%, while the area at moderate risk decreased by 22%. These are the areas where g-HAT is still to be considered a public health problem (i.e. > 1 HAT reported case per 10,000 people per annum). This contraction of at-risk areas corresponds to a reduction of 57% for the population at high or very high risk (from 4.1 to 1.8 million), and 20% for moderate risk (from 14.0 to 11.3 million). Discussion Improved data completeness and accuracy of the Atlas of HAT enhanced our capacity to monitor the progress towards the elimination of g-HAT. The trends in the selected indicators suggest that, in recent years, progress has been steady and in line with the elimination goal laid out in the WHO roadmap on neglected tropical diseases., Author Summary Control activities conducted over the last 15 years against gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) have had a tremendous impact on disease transmission, and the elimination of g-HAT now appears achievable. In this context, accurate monitoring is crucial. This paper analyzes g-HAT epidemiological trends by comparing two periods: 2003–2007 and 2008–2012. The number of reported cases decreased from 19,963 in 2003 to 7,106 in 2012. The areas at high or very high risk shrank by 60% between the two study periods. For 2008–2012, 43.4 million people out of a total of 56.4 million at risk lived in areas at low or very low risk of infection, and they have therefore met the criterion of elimination as a public health problem (i.e. < 1 case per 10,000 inhabitants per year). The challenge for the future is twofold. First, to prevent these 43.4 million people from sliding back into a situation of higher risk through effective surveillance. Second, to develop sustainable and adapted strategies to curb transmission in the areas where people are still living at moderate to very high risk. The WHO network for g-HAT elimination provides an opportunity to synergize efforts and to overcome the hurdles in this challenging endeavour.

BackgroundOutbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported for many times in Asia during the last decades. This emerging disease has drawn worldwide attention and vigilance. Nowadays, the prevention and control of HFMD has become an imperative issue in China. Early detection and response will be helpful before it happening, using modern information technology during the epidemic.MethodIn this paper, a hybrid model combining seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NARNN) is proposed to predict the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, using the retrospective observations obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2008 to November 2012.ResultsThe best-fitted hybrid model was combined with seasonal ARIMA [Formula: see text] and NARNN with 15 hidden units and 5 delays. The hybrid model makes the good forecasting performance and estimates the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, which are respectively -965.03, -1879.58, 4138.26, 1858.17, 4061.86 and 6163.16 with an obviously increasing trend.ConclusionThe model proposed in this paper can predict the incidence trend of HFMD effectively, which could be helpful to policy makers. The usefulness of expected cases of HFMD perform not only in detecting outbreaks or providing probability statements, but also in providing decision makers with a probable trend of the variability of future observations that contains both historical and recent information.

Background How can we explain the uneven decline of syphilis around the world following the introduction of penicillin? In this paper we use antenatal syphilis prevalence (ASP) to investigate how syphilis prevalence varied worldwide in the past century, and what risk factors correlate with this variance. Methods 1) A systematic review using PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted to identify countries with published data relating to ASP estimates from before 1952 until the present. Eleven countries were identified (Canada, Denmark, Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK) and Zimbabwe). The ASP epidemic curve for each population was depicted graphically. In South Africa and the USA, results are reported separately for the black and white populations. 2) National antenatal syphilis prevalence estimates for 1990 to 1999 and 2008 were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low risk populations compiled for the Global Burden of Diseases study and from a recent review paper respectively. National ASPs were depicted graphically and regional median ASPs were calculated for both time periods. 3) Linear regression was used to test for an association between ASP in 1990–1999 and 2008 and four risk factors (efficacy of syphilis screening/treatment, health expenditure, GDP per capita and circumcision prevalence). WHO world regions were included as potential explanatory variables. Results In most populations, ASP dropped to under 1% before 1960. In Zimbabwe and black South Africans, ASP was high in the pre-penicillin period, dropped in the post-penicillin period, but then plateaued at around 6% until the end of the 20th century when ASP dropped to just above 1%. In black Americans, ASP declined in the post penicillin period, but plateaued at 3–5% thereafter. ASP was statistically significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990–1999 and 2008 than in the other world regions (P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis in both time periods, ASP was only associated with residence in sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusions Further research is necessary to elucidate the reasons for the higher prevalence of syphilis in sub-Saharan Africa., Author Summary Syphilis rates have varied tremendously between different populations around the world. We conducted a systematic review of syphilis prevalence in pregnant women in 13 populations with available data for the last 100 years. Our findings were that in most populations syphilis prevalence dropped to under 1% before 1960. In the 2 populations from sub Saharan Africa, the syphilis prevalence remained around 6% until 50 years after the introduction of penicillin. Other systematic reviews were utilized to provide syphilis prevalence estimates for all countries with available data for the periods 1990–1999 and 2008. We assessed if there was a correlation between national syphilis prevalence in these periods and five explanatory factors. Only residence in sub-Saharan Africa was associated with syphilis prevalence in both time periods. These findings, considered in conjunction with other types of evidence we review, such as the strong correlations at population level between syphilis prevalence and those of Herpes Simplex Virus-2 prevalence and HIV prevalence, suggest that common risk factors may underpin the spread of all three of these sexually transmitted diseases. Establishing what these factors are is of great importance to improve the health of highly affected populations such as those in sub-Saharan Africa.

Persuasion is at the core of norm creation, emergence of collective action, and solutions to ‘tragedy of the commons’ problems. In this paper, we show that the directionality of friendship ties affect the extent to which individuals can influence the behavior of each other. Moreover, we find that people are typically poor at perceiving the directionality of their friendship ties and that this can significantly limit their ability to engage in cooperative arrangements. This could lead to failures in establishing compatible norms, acting together, finding compromise solutions, and persuading others to act. We then suggest strategies to overcome this limitation by using two topological characteristics of the perceived friendship network. The findings of this paper have significant consequences for designing interventions that seek to harness social influence for collective action.

Michel Guillot and colleagues did a systematic evaluation to assess what proportion of under-five mortality occurs below age one compared with at age one and above, to determine how much observed values deviate from so called “model age patterns” of under-five mortality, Background The under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age 5 y, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and 5 q 0) is a key indicator of child health, but it conceals important information about how this mortality is distributed by age. One important distinction is what amount of the under-five mortality occurs below age 1 y (1 q 0) versus at age 1 y and above (4 q 1). However, in many country settings, this distinction is often difficult to establish because of various types of data errors. As a result, it is common practice to resort to model age patterns to estimate 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of an observed value of 5 q 0. The most commonly used model age patterns for this purpose are the Coale and Demeny and the United Nations systems. Since the development of these models, many additional sources of data for under-five mortality have become available, making possible a general evaluation of age patterns of infant and child mortality. In this paper, we do a systematic comparison of empirical values of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against model age patterns, and discuss whether observed deviations are due to data errors, or whether they reflect true epidemiological patterns not addressed in existing model life tables. Methods and Findings We used vital registration data from the Human Mortality Database, sample survey data from the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and Health Surveys programs, and data from Demographic Surveillance Systems. For each of these data sources, we compared empirical combinations of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against combinations provided by Coale and Demeny and United Nations model age patterns. We found that, on the whole, empirical values fall relatively well within the range provided by these models, but we also found important exceptions. Sub-Saharan African countries have a tendency to exhibit high values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that appears to arise for the most part from true epidemiological causes. While this pattern is well known in the case of western Africa, we observed that it is more widespread than commonly thought. We also found that the emergence of HIV/AIDS, while perhaps contributing to high relative values of 4 q 1, does not appear to have substantially modified preexisting patterns. We also identified a small number of countries scattered in different parts of the world that exhibit unusually low values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that is not likely to arise merely from data errors. Finally, we illustrate that it is relatively common for populations to experience changes in age patterns of infant and child mortality as they experience a decline in mortality. Conclusions Existing models do not appear to cover the entire range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution for estimating 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of 5 q 0. Moreover, this model-based estimation procedure assumes that the input value of 5 q 0 is correct, which may not always be warranted, especially in the case of survey data. A systematic evaluation of data errors in sample surveys and their impact on age patterns of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 is urgently needed, along with the development of model age patterns of under-five mortality that would cover a wider range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary., Editors' Summary Background In 2000, world leaders agreed on eight Millennium Development Goals designed to end extreme poverty by 2015. The fourth of these goals—MDG 4—aims to reduce under-five mortality (the number of children who die before their fifth birthday) to a third of its 1990 level by 2015. A key indicator used to monitor progress towards this target is the under-five mortality rate (the probability of a child dying before his/her fifth birthday, also denoted as U5MR or 5 q 0). In developed countries, data collected through vital registration systems (which record all births and deaths) are used to calculate 5 q 0. However, developing countries, which are where most under-five deaths occur, rarely have vital registration systems, and 5 q 0 is estimated using data collected by programs such as the World Fertility Survey (WFS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), which conduct nationally representative surveys that ask a sample of women about their living and dead children. Why Was This Study Done? Although 5 q 0 is a key indicator of child health, it conceals important information about the age distribution of child deaths. Public health experts need to know the distribution of 5 q 0 with respect to 1 q 0 (the probability that an infant will die before age one) and 4 q 1 (the probability that a child reaching age one will die below age five) to help them reduce child mortality. At a given level of 5 q 0, high values of 1 q 0 indicate high levels of death from congenital (inherited) anomalies and conditions that occur around the time of birth; these deaths can be reduced by improving the care of women during pregnancy and childbirth and the care of newborn babies. By contrast, at a given level of 5 q 0, high values of 4 q 1 indicate high levels of death from infectious diseases; these deaths can be reduced by, for example, introducing immunization programs. 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 are usually estimated from observed (empirical) values of 5 q 0 using the Coale and Demeny or United Nations (UN) “model life tables” (mathematical models of the variation of mortality with age), which were constructed in 1966 and 1982, respectively, using the best data available. Since their construction, additional sources of data about under-five mortality have become available; in this study, the researchers systematically compare global empirical values of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 with values obtained using model life tables. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? The researchers compared empirical combinations of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 (estimated using vital registration data, WFS and DHS data, and data from Demographic Surveillance Sites in sub-Saharan Africa) with the combinations derived from 5 q 0 using the Coale and Demeny and UN model life tables. The empirical values mainly fell within the range provided by these tables, but there were important exceptions. For example, empirical values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0 tended to be above the range provided by the model life tables for sub-Saharan African countries. This pattern was mainly because of epidemiological reasons (epidemiology is the study of disease patterns in populations), such as the occurrence of diseases such as malaria, measles, and diarrhea that generate excess mortality among children older than one year. Interestingly, the emergence of HIV does not seem to have substantially modified preexisting patterns of 1 q 0 versus 4 q 1. Importantly, the researchers also show that populations often experience changes in the age patterns of infant and child mortality as they experience an overall decline in mortality. What Do These Findings Mean? These findings suggest that the existing model life tables do not cover the entire global range of epidemiological situations and trajectories and must, therefore, be used with caution for estimating 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of 5 q 0. The development of new model age patterns of under-five mortality that cover a wider range of epidemiological situations should improve this situation, but a systematic analysis of data errors in sample surveys and the impact of such errors on estimates of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 is also urgently needed to ensure that public health experts have access to accurate information on child mortality. Importantly, this overview shows that a wide range of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 combinations can occur at a given level of 5 q 0. Because the level of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0 provides important information about the disease processes occurring in a population, this finding highlights the importance of determining 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 as well as 5 q 0 whenever possible. Additional Information Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001299. This paper is part of a collection of papers on Child Mortality Estimation Methods published in PLOS Medicine The United Nations Childrens Fund (UNICEF) works for children's rights, survival, development, and protection around the world; it provides information on Millennium Development Goal 4, and its Childinfo website provides detailed statistics about child survival and health, including a description of the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation; the 2011 UN IGME report Levels & Trends in Child Mortality is available The World Health Organization also has information about Millennium Development Goal 4 and provides estimates of child mortality rates (some information in several languages) Further information about the Millennium Development Goals is available Information is also available about the Human Mortality Database, which holds vital registration data; the World Fertility Survey program; the Demographic and Health Surveys program; and model life tables

Background An outbreak of dengue fever (DF) occurred in Guangdong Province, China in 2013 with the highest number of cases observed within the preceding ten years. DF cases were clustered in the Pearl River Delta economic zone (PRD) in Guangdong Province, which accounted for 99.6% of all cases in Guangdong province in 2013. The main vector in PRD was Aedes albopictus. We investigated the socioeconomic and environmental factors at the township level and explored how the independent variables jointly affect the DF epidemic in the PRD. Methodology/Principal Findings Six factors associated with the incidence of DF were identified in this project, representing the urbanization, poverty, accessibility and vegetation, and were considered to be core contributors to the occurrence of DF from the perspective of the social economy and the environment. Analyses were performed with Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to fit parametric and non-parametric functions to the relationships between the response and predictors. We used a spline-smooth technique and plotted the predicted against the observed co-variable value. The distribution of DF cases was over-dispersed and fit the negative binomial function better. The effects of all six socioeconomic and environmental variables were found to be significant at the 0.001 level and the model explained 45.1% of the deviance by DF incidence. There was a higher risk of DF infection among people living at the prefectural boundary or in the urban areas than among those living in other areas in the PRD. The relative risk of living at the prefectural boundary was higher than that of living in the urban areas. The associations between the DF cases and population density, GDP per capita, road density, and NDVI were nonlinear. In general, higher “road density” or lower “GDP per capita” were considered to be consistent risk factors. Moreover, higher or lower values of “population density” and “NDVI” could result in an increase in DF cases. Conclusion In this study, we presented an effect analysis of socioeconomic and environmental factors on DF occurrence at the smallest administrative unit (township level) for the first time in China. GAM was used to effectively detect the nonlinear impact of the predictors on the outcome. The results showed that the relative importance of different risk factors may vary across the PRD. This work improves our understanding of the differences and effects of socioeconomic and environmental factors on DF and supports effectively targeted prevention and control measures., Author Summary Dengue fever is an infectious disease transmitted by mosquitoes. It is a major public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions around the world. Dengue fever is of great interest in the Pearl River Delta economic zone (PRD) of Guangdong province, China because the outbreak in 2013 was the largest in the previous 10 years. Due to the low degree of diversity in the climatic conditions in the PRD, socioeconomic and environmental factors may be the major contributing factors. The objective of this paper was to perform an assessment and detect the socioeconomic and environmental impact on cases at the smallest administrative unit (the township level). Six factors were identified in this work, representing urbanization, poverty, accessibility and vegetation. The effects of all these factors were found to be significant. The results showed that the relative importance of different risk factors may vary across the PRD. The higher risk areas and vulnerable populations identified in this paper will provide guidance for public health practitioners to create targeted, strategic plans and implement effective public health prevention and control measures.

In the first of two papers investigating surgical provision in eight district hospitals in Saharan African countries, Margaret Kruk and colleagues find low levels of surgical care provision suggesting unmet need for surgical services., Background Surgical conditions contribute significantly to the disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet there is an apparent neglect of surgical care as a public health intervention to counter this burden. There is increasing enthusiasm to reverse this trend, by promoting essential surgical services at the district hospital, the first point of contact for critical conditions for rural populations. This study investigated the scope of surgery conducted at district hospitals in three sub-Saharan African countries. Methods and Findings In a retrospective descriptive study, field data were collected from eight district hospitals in Uganda, Tanzania, and Mozambique using a standardized form and interviews with key informants. Overall, the scope of surgical procedures performed was narrow and included mainly essential and life-saving emergency procedures. Surgical output varied across hospitals from five to 45 major procedures/10,000 people. Obstetric operations were most common and included cesarean sections and uterine evacuations. Hernia repair and wound care accounted for 65% of general surgical procedures. The number of beds in the studied hospitals ranged from 0.2 to 1.0 per 1,000 population. Conclusion The findings of this study clearly indicate low levels of surgical care provision at the district level for the hospitals studied. The extent to which this translates into unmet need remains unknown although the very low proportions of live births in the catchment areas of these eight hospitals that are born by cesarean section suggest that there is a substantial unmet need for surgical services. The district hospital in the current health system in sub-Saharan Africa lends itself to feasible integration of essential surgery into the spectrum of comprehensive primary care services. It is therefore critical that the surgical capacity of the district hospital is significantly expanded; this will result in sustainable preventable morbidity and mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary, Editors' Summary Background Every year, about 234 million major surgical procedures take place globally. Of these procedures, only a quarter are performed in low- and middle-income countries where nearly three-quarters of the world's population lives. Put another way, in high-income countries, 10,110 people out of every 100,000 have surgery each year on average compared to only 295 people out of every 100,000 in low- and middle-income countries. Yet conditions that need surgery (including complications of childbirth and traumatic injuries) are common in developing countries and contribute significantly to the burden of disease in these countries. Various organizations are working to reduce this burden by improving emergency and essential surgical care in developing countries. For example, the Bellagio Essential Surgery Group (BESG), which includes experts in surgery, anesthesia, obstetrics (the branch of medicine that cares for women during pregnancy and childbirth), and health policy from several African countries, the World Health Organization (WHO), and the US, aims to increase access to surgical services in sub-Saharan Africa. Why Was This Study Done? One way to improve access to surgical services in sub-Saharan Africa would be to promote the provision of essential surgical services at district hospitals. These hospitals are the first referral facilities for people living in rural areas. Traditionally, patients receive much of their primary health care at these facilities but are referred to secondary and tertiary health care facilities (regional and national referral hospitals, respectively) for more specialized care. However, many surgical conditions—in particular, obstetric emergencies—need to be treated at district hospitals if lives are to be saved. Unfortunately, very little is known about the range and volume of surgical procedures currently undertaken in district hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa and such information is needed before programs can be developed to increase access to surgical services at these facilities. In this retrospective, descriptive study, the researchers (some of whom are part of the BESG) investigate the scope of surgery undertaken in district hospitals in three sub-Saharan African countries. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? The researchers obtained recent data on the surgical procedures done at two representative district hospitals each in Tanzania and in Mozambique and four representative district hospitals in Uganda by examining hospital records and by interviewing administrators. The observed range of surgical procedures performed in these hospitals was narrow, they report, consisting mainly of essential and life-saving emergency procedures such as cesarean sections for the delivery of babies and wound-related procedures. Obstetric procedures accounted for around half of all surgical procedures in all the hospitals except one Ugandan hospital. Hernia repair and wound care accounted for nearly two-thirds of general surgical procedures. The surgical output across the hospitals varied from five to 45 major procedures per 10,000 people in the population (average 25 operations per 10,000 people). Across the hospitals, between one and 17 cesarean sections and between 0.5 and seven hernia repairs were performed per 10,000 people in the population. Finally, the researchers used their data and WHO estimates of the population need for cesarean sections to estimate that in the two Tanzanian district hospitals, between half and two-thirds of women that needed a cesarean section did not have access to this life-saving procedure. What Do These Findings Mean? These findings suggest that there are low levels of provision of surgical care in district hospitals in Tanzania, Mozambique, and Uganda. Further studies are needed to confirm that these findings are generalizable to district hospitals elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa and to quantify the extent to which this low level of surgical care translates into unmet needs. Limitations of the study include a lack of information on outcomes, on referral of patients to higher-level facilities, and on how many of the surgical procedures undertaken at these hospitals dealt with traumatic injuries. Nevertheless, the information collected in this study, together with that in a separate paper that investigates the availability of health workers and funding for the provision of essential surgery in district hospitals in these three countries, suggests that the surgical capacity of district hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa needs to be improved. If this goal can be achieved, suggest the researchers, it should avert many illnesses and deaths in this poor region of the world. Additional Information Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000243. The availability of health workers and funding for surgery in the same hospitals is investigated in a PLoS Medicine Research Article by Margaret E. Kruk et al. Information on the Bellagio Essential Surgery Group is available WHO's Global initiative for Emergency and Essential Surgical Care plans to take essential emergency, basic surgery and anesthesia skills to health care staff in low- and middle-income countries around the world; WHO also has a page describing the importance of emergency and essential surgery in primary health care

Viboud et al. [1] offer thoughtful commentary on our paper [2], opening a scientific exchange that we hope brings attention to a critical issue. We reported the first empirical and quantitative evidence for the effect of airline travel on the rate of epidemic influenza spread. Though other investigators have also found this relationship [3–6], there is no consensus on effect size. We welcome scrutiny of our methods and results and believe the findings stand for the following reasons. Viboud et al., taking a longer historical perspective, suggest that the slower spread and late peaking of the 2001–2002 season is not unique and highlight three other late seasons dominated by influenza B (1992–1993–1973–1974, and 1976–1977). Recent studies, including one by Viboud and colleagues, find that B seasons have different epidemiological characteristics than A/H3N2 seasons, which may explain the late peaking in these years [7,8]. As 2001–2002 was dominated by influenza A/H3N2, late peaking in 2001–2002 cannot be explained by dominant subtype (nor climatic conditions). Our study period from 1996–2005 represents the longest stretch of A/H3N2 seasons in over 30 years, essentially controlling for subtype. Viboud et al. also point to the 2005–2006 season as particularly delayed. We examined peaking during that season using mortality data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in order to compare to our estimates from prior seasons [9]. We find that mortality as well as morbidity was bimodal, with larger peaks in January and December, respectively. We thus reaffirm that 2001–2002, being the latest peaking H3N2 season in over 30 years, is an aberrant season for which airline travel interruption remains the best explanation. Viboud and colleagues' letter does not take into account that our results are not simply based on an outlier year, nor are they based on a single data source. Rather, we have revealed an important correlation across nine influenza seasons. The impact of airline volume on flu spread does not depend on the 2001–2002 season and remains significant even after its exclusion. Since considering longer time series may provide insight, we repeated our methods on the 30-year mortality time series which Viboud et al. also analyzed [10]. We employed the same spatial aggregation (nine geographic regions) and time series methods as described in [2]. We found substantial long-term log-linear trends toward earlier peaking and faster spreading influenza epidemics that are correlated with air travel volume (r2 = 0.460; p < 0.001 and r2 = 0.265; p = 0.004, respectively, Figure 1). Thus, our new analyses of longer-term data support an effect of airline travel volume. Figure 1 Influence of United States Airline Volume on Influenza Spread and the Timing of Yearly Transmission over 30 Influenza Seasons We strongly caution that other factors may influence these trends, including population density, air passenger demographics, ground transportation, and climate. Our design relies on a shorter, more recent time series to avoid confounding by longer term secular trends that may be evident in the 30-year time series. Given the three year backlog of the 30-year dataset, the data Viboud et al. use do not permit the interrupted time series analysis at the core of our investigation. Reconciliation of our different time series methodologies and datasets should be considered in future research. Nonetheless, because our results were confirmed with viral surveillance data, we remain confident in the robustness of our analysis. We agree that other modes of transportation are important influences; our paper makes no claim that air travel is the only mechanism of spread, and we explicitly report that our model explains a portion of the variation in yearly influenza spread and peak. Finally, Viboud et al. emphasize the limited applicability of our findings to pandemics. We agree and have highlighted this limitation in our paper. The decision to restrict travel should be multifactorial. We do hope that it will be evidence based. Our analyses (including those presented here) provide empirical insight into the previously uncharacterized effect of air travel fluctuation on influenza spread. They are one contribution to a small body of investigations that are forming the basis of global policy on flu preparedness. Though the effect we observe might be smaller under pandemic conditions, the benefit of a delay is worthy of consideration by scientists and policy makers where lives are at stake and even a short lead time may be of enormous public health value. We are pleased that Viboud et al. have engaged in a discourse that we hope will strengthen the scientific basis of pandemic preparedness. We call on governments, industry, and health care to create a more accessible, freely available, and well-documented data repository for geographically and temporally detailed data on influenza [11] and encourage empirical analyses of the dynamics and mechanisms of influenza spread.

Psychotic disorders are among the most complex medical conditions. Longitudinal cohort studies may offer further insight into determinants of functional outcome after a psychotic episode. This paper describes the Psychosis Recent Onset in GRoningen Survey (PROGR-S) that currently contains data on 1076 early-episode patients with psychosis, including symptoms, personality, cognition, life events and other outcome determinants. Our goal in this report is to give an overview of PROGR-S, as a point of reference for future publications on the effect of cognition, personality and psychosocial functioning on outcomes. PROGR-S contains an extensive, diagnostic battery including anamnesis, biography, socio-demographic characteristics, clinical status, drug use, neuropsychological assessment, personality questionnaires, and physical status tests. Extensive follow-up data is available on psychopathology, physical condition, medication use, and care consumption. Sample characteristics were determined and related to existing literature. PROGR-S (period 1997-2009, n = 718) included the majority of the expected referrals in the catchment area. The average age was 27 (SD = 8.6) and two-thirds were male. The average IQ was lower than that in the healthy control group. The majority had been diagnosed with a psychotic spectrum disorder. A substantial number of the patients had depressive symptoms (479/718, 78%) and current cannabis or alcohol use (465/718, 75%). The level of community functioning was moderate, i.e. most patients were not in a relationship and were unemployed. The PROGR-S database contains a valuable cohort to study a range of aspects related to symptomatic and functional outcomes of recent onset psychosis, which may play a role in the treatment of this complex and disabling disorder. Results reported here show interesting starting points for future research. Thus, we aim to investigate long-term outcomes on the basis of cognition, personality, negative symptoms and physical health. Ultimately, we hope that this paper will contribute improving the health of patients with psychotic disorders.

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations most affected. Given their density and available infrastructure, refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements can be particularly susceptible to disease spread. In this paper we present an agent-based modeling approach to simulating the spread of disease in refugee and IDP settlements under various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. The model, based on the June open-source framework, is informed by data on geography, demographics, comorbidities, physical infrastructure and other parameters obtained from real-world observations and previous literature. The development and testing of this approach focuses on the Cox’s Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh, although our model is designed to be generalizable to other informal settings. Our findings suggest the encouraging self-isolation at home of mild to severe symptomatic patients, as opposed to the isolation of all positive cases in purpose-built isolation and treatment centers, does not increase the risk of secondary infection meaning the centers can be used to provide hospital support to the most intense cases of COVID-19. Secondly we find that mask wearing in all indoor communal areas can be effective at dampening viral spread, even with low mask efficacy and compliance rates. Finally, we model the effects of reopening learning centers in the settlement under various mitigation strategies. For example, a combination of mask wearing in the classroom, halving attendance regularity to enable physical distancing, and better ventilation can almost completely mitigate the increased risk of infection which keeping the learning centers open may cause. These modeling efforts are being incorporated into decision making processes to inform future planning, and further exercises should be carried out in similar geographies to help protect those most vulnerable., Author summary The spread of infectious diseases presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world. Given their density and available infrastructure, refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements can be particularly susceptible to the dangers of disease spread. This study seeks to understand how COVID-19 spreads in settlements, focusing on the Cox’s Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh. Our model simulates the movements and interactions of each individual in the settlement, incorporating information about family structures and demographic attributes, to understand how COVID-19 might spread under various intervention strategies. Our analysis suggests that mask wearing in indoor locations can have a significant effect on disease spread, even when wearing reusable cotton masks, which the people in the settlement can make themselves. We also look at different ways to treat individuals who only have milder symptoms and don’t yet require hospitalisation, as well as various scenarios which might allow for the safe reopening of schools in the settlement. With almost 80 million forcibly displaced people in the world, we hope that this work will inspire more modeling groups to focus on these vulnerable populations, which have been traditionally under-served by such efforts, to ensure no one is left behind.

ObjectivesThis paper examines the ethnic and gender differentials in high blood pressure (HBP), diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), arthritis and asthma among older people in Malaysia, and how these diseases along with other factors affect self-rated health. Differentials in the prevalence of non-communicable diseases among older people are examined in the context of socio-cultural perspectives in multi-ethnic Malaysia.MethodsData for this paper are obtained from the 2004 Malaysian Population and Family Survey. The survey covered a nationally representative sample of 3,406 persons aged 50 and over, comprising three main ethnic groups (Malays, Chinese and Indians) and all other indigenous groups. Bivariate analyses and hierarchical logistic regression were used in the analyses.ResultsArthritis was the most common non-communicable disease (NCD), followed by HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD. Older females were more likely than males to have arthritis and HBP, but males were more likely to have asthma. Diabetes and CHD were most prevalent among Indians, while arthritis and HBP were most prevalent among the Indigenous groups. Older people were more likely to report poor health if they suffered from NCD, especially CHD. Controlling for socio-economic, health and lifestyle factors, Chinese were least likely to report poor health, whereas Indians and Indigenous people were more likely to do so. Chinese that had HBP were more likely to report poor health compared to other ethnic groups with the same disease. Among those with arthritis, Indians were more likely to report poor health.ConclusionPerceived health status and prevalence of arthritis, HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD varied widely across ethnic groups. Promotion of healthy lifestyle, early detection and timely intervention of NCDs affecting different ethnic groups and gender with socio-cultural orientations would go a long way in alleviating the debilitating effects of the common NCDs among older people.

Objectives The general health questionnaire (GHQ) is commonly used to assess symptoms of common mental disorder (CMD). Prevalence estimates for CMD caseness from UK population studies are thought to be in the range of 14–17%, and the UK occupational studies of which we are aware indicate a higher prevalence. This review will synthesise the existing research using the GHQ from both population and occupational studies and will compare the weighted prevalence estimates between them. Methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the prevalence of CMD, as assessed by the GHQ, in all UK occupational and population studies conducted from 1990 onwards. Results The search revealed 65 occupational papers which met the search criteria and 15 relevant papers for UK population studies. The weighted prevalence estimate for CMD across all occupational studies which used the same version and cut-off for the GHQ was 29.6% (95% confidence intervals (CIs) 27.3–31.9%) and for comparable population studies was significantly lower at 19.1% (95% CIs 17.3–20.8%). This difference was reduced after restricting the studies by response rate and sampling method (23.9% (95% CIs 20.5%–27.4%) vs. 19.2% (95 CIs 17.1%–21.3%)). Conclusions Counter intuitively, the prevalence of CMD is higher in occupational studies, compared to population studies (which include individuals not in employment), although this difference narrowed after accounting for measures of study quality, including response rate and sampling method. This finding is inconsistent with the healthy worker effect, which would presume lower levels of psychological symptoms in individuals in employment. One explanation is that the GHQ is sensitive to contextual factors, and it seems possible that symptoms of CMD are over reported when participants know that they have been recruited to a study on the basis that they belong to a specific occupational group, as in nearly all “stress” surveys.

Romesh Silva assesses and analyzes differences in direct and indirect methods of estimating under-five mortality rates using data collected from full and summary birth histories in Demographic and Health Surveys from West Africa, East Africa, Latin America, and South/Southeast Asia., Background Given the lack of complete vital registration data in most developing countries, for many countries it is not possible to accurately estimate under-five mortality rates from vital registration systems. Heavy reliance is often placed on direct and indirect methods for analyzing data collected from birth histories to estimate under-five mortality rates. Yet few systematic comparisons of these methods have been undertaken. This paper investigates whether analysts should use both direct and indirect estimates from full birth histories, and under what circumstances indirect estimates derived from summary birth histories should be used. Methods and Findings Usings Demographic and Health Surveys data from West Africa, East Africa, Latin America, and South/Southeast Asia, I quantify the differences between direct and indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates, analyze data quality issues, note the relative effects of these issues, and test whether these issues explain the observed differences. I find that indirect estimates are generally consistent with direct estimates, after adjustment for fertility change and birth transference, but don't add substantial additional insight beyond direct estimates. However, choice of direct or indirect method was found to be important in terms of both the adjustment for data errors and the assumptions made about fertility. Conclusions Although adjusted indirect estimates are generally consistent with adjusted direct estimates, some notable inconsistencies were observed for countries that had experienced either a political or economic crisis or stalled health transition in their recent past. This result suggests that when a population has experienced a smooth mortality decline or only short periods of excess mortality, both adjusted methods perform equally well. However, the observed inconsistencies identified suggest that the indirect method is particularly prone to bias resulting from violations of its strong assumptions about recent mortality and fertility. Hence, indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates from summary birth histories should be used only for populations that have experienced either smooth mortality declines or only short periods of excess mortality in their recent past. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary., Editors' Summary Background In 1990, 12 million children died before they reached their fifth birthday. Faced with this largely avoidable loss of young lives, in 2000, world leaders set a target of reducing under-five mortality (death) to one-third of its 1990 level by 2015 as Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4); this goal, together with seven others, aims to eradicate extreme poverty globally. To track progress towards MDG 4, experts need accurate estimates of the global and country-specific under-five mortality rate (U5MR, the probability of a child dying before age five). The most reliable sources of data for U5MR estimation are vital registration systems—national records of all births and deaths. Unfortunately, developing countries, which are where most childhood deaths occur, rarely have such records, so full or summary birth histories provide the data for U5MR estimation instead. In full birth histories (FBHs), which are collected through household surveys such as those conducted by Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), women are asked for the date of birth of all their children and the age at death of any children who have died. In summary birth histories (SBHs), which are collected through household surveys and censuses, women are asked how many children they have had and how many are alive at the time of the survey. Why Was This Study Done? “Direct” estimates of U5MRs can be obtained from FBHs because FBHs provide detailed information about the date of death and the exposure of children to the risk of dying. By contrast, because SBHs do not contain information on children's exposure to the risk of dying, “indirect” estimates of U5MR are obtained from SBHs using model life tables (mathematical models of the variation of mortality with age). Indirect estimates are often also derived from FBHs, but few systematic comparisons of direct and indirect methods for U5MR estimation have been undertaken. In this study, Romesh Silva investigates whether direct and indirect methods provide consistent U5MR estimates from FBHs and whether there are any circumstances under which indirect methods provide more reliable U5MR estimates than direct methods. What Did the Researcher Do and Find? The researcher used DHS data from West Africa, East Africa, Latin America, and South/Southeast Asia to quantify the differences between direct and indirect estimates of U5MR calculated from the same data and analyzed possible reasons for these differences. Estimates obtained using a version of the “Brass” indirect estimation method were uniformly higher than those obtained using direct estimation. Indirect and direct estimates generally agreed, however, after adjustment for changes in fertility—the Brass method assumes that country-specific fertility (the number of children born to a woman during her reproductive life) remains constant—and for birth transference, an important source of data error in FBHs that arises because DHS field staff can lessen their workload by recording births as occurring before a preset cutoff date rather than after that date. Notably, though, for countries that had experienced political or economic crises, periods of excess mortality due to conflicts, or periods during which the health transition had stalled (as countries become more affluent, overall mortality rates decline and noncommunicable diseases replace infectious diseases as the major causes of death), marked differences between indirect and direct estimates of U5MR remained, even after these adjustments. What Do These Findings Mean? Because the countries included in this study do not have vital registration systems, these findings provide no information about the validity of either direct or indirect estimation methods for U5MR estimation. They suggest, however, that for countries where there has been a smooth decline in mortality or only short periods of excess mortality, both direct and indirect methods of U5MR estimation work equally well, after adjustment for changes in fertility and for birth transference, and that indirect estimates add little to the insights provided into childhood mortality by direct estimates. Importantly, the inconsistencies observed between the two methods that remain after adjustment suggest that indirect U5MR estimation is more susceptible to bias (systematic errors that arise because of the assumptions used to estimate U5MR) than direct estimation. Thus, indirect estimates of U5MR from SBHs should be used only for populations that have experienced either smooth mortality declines or only short periods of excess mortality in their recent past. Additional Information Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296. This paper is part of a collection of papers on Child Mortality Estimation Methods published in PLOS Medicine The United Nations Childrens Fund (UNICEF) works for children's rights, survival, development, and protection around the world; it provides information on Millennium Development Goal 4, and its Childinfo website provides detailed statistics about child survival and health, including a description of the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation; the 2011 UN IGME report Levels & Trends in Child Mortality is available The World Health Organization has information about Millennium Development Goal 4 and provides estimates of child mortality rates (some information in several languages) Further information about the Millennium Development Goals is available Information is available about infant and child mortality data collected by Demographic and Health Surveys

Jon Pedersen and Jing Liu examine the feasibility and potential advantages of using one-year rather than five-year time periods along with calendar year-based estimation when deriving estimates of child mortality., Background Child mortality estimates from complete birth histories from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) surveys and similar surveys are a chief source of data used to track Millennium Development Goal 4, which aims for a reduction of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Based on the expected sample sizes when the DHS program commenced, the estimates are usually based on 5-y time periods. Recent surveys have had larger sample sizes than early surveys, and here we aimed to explore the benefits of using shorter time periods than 5 y for estimation. We also explore the benefit of changing the estimation procedure from being based on years before the survey, i.e., measured with reference to the date of the interview for each woman, to being based on calendar years. Methods and Findings Jackknife variance estimation was used to calculate standard errors for 207 DHS surveys in order to explore to what extent the large samples in recent surveys can be used to produce estimates based on 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-y periods. We also recalculated the estimates for the surveys into calendar-year-based estimates. We demonstrate that estimation for 1-y periods is indeed possible for many recent surveys. Conclusions The reduction in bias achieved using 1-y periods and calendar-year-based estimation is worthwhile in some cases. In particular, it allows tracking of the effects of particular events such as droughts, epidemics, or conflict on child mortality in a way not possible with previous estimation procedures. Recommendations to use estimation for short time periods when possible and to use calendar-year-based estimation were adopted in the United Nations 2011 estimates of child mortality., Editors' Summary Background In 2000, world leaders set, as Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), a target of reducing global under-five mortality (the number of children who die before their fifth birthday to a third of its 1990 level (12 million deaths per year) by 2015. (The MDGs are designed to alleviate extreme poverty by 2015.) To track progress towards MDG 4, the under-five mortality rate (also shown as 5 q 0) needs to be estimated both “precisely” and “accurately.” A “precise” estimate has a small random error (a quality indicated by a statistical measurement called the coefficient of variance), and an “accurate” estimate is one that is close to the true value because it lacks bias (systematic errors). In an ideal world, under-five mortality estimates would be based on official records of births and deaths. However, developing countries, which are where most under-five deaths occur, rarely have such records, and under-five mortality estimation relies on “complete birth histories” provided by women via surveys. These are collected by Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS, a project that helps developing countries collect data on health and population trends) and record all the births that a surveyed woman has had and the age at death of any of her children who have died. Why Was This Study Done? Because the DHS originally surveyed samples of 5,000–6,000 women, estimates of under-five mortality are traditionally calculated using data from five-year time periods. Over shorter periods with this sample size, the random errors in under-five mortality estimates become unacceptably large. Nowadays, the average DHS survey sample size is more than 10,000 women, so it should be possible to estimate under-five mortality over shorter time periods. Such estimates should be able to track the effects on under-five mortality of events such as droughts and conflicts better than estimates made over five years. In this study, the researchers determine appropriate time periods for child mortality estimates based on full birth histories, given different sample sizes. Specifically, they ask whether, with the bigger sample sizes that are now available, details about trends in under-five mortality rates are being missed by using the estimation procedures that were developed for smaller samples. They also ask whether calendar-year-based estimates can be calculated; mortality is usually estimated in “years before the survey,” a process that blurs the reference period for the estimate. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? The researchers used a statistical method called “jackknife variance estimation” to determine coefficients of variance for child mortality estimates calculated over different time periods using complete birth histories from 207 DHS surveys. Regardless of the estimation period, half of the estimates had a coefficient of variance of less than 10%, a level of random variation that is generally considered acceptable. However, within each time period, some estimates had very high coefficients of variance. These estimates were derived from surveys where there was a small sample size, low fertility (the women surveyed had relatively few babies), or low child mortality. Other analyses show that although the five-year period estimates had lower standard errors than the one-year period estimates, the latter were affected less by bias than the five-year period estimates. Finally, estimates fixed to calendar years rather than to years before the survey were more directly comparable across surveys and brought out variations in child mortality caused by specific events such as conflicts more clearly. What Do These Findings Mean? These findings show that although under-five mortality rate estimates based on five-year periods of data have been the norm, the sample sizes currently employed in DHS surveys make it feasible to estimate mortality for shorter periods. The findings also show that using shorter periods of data in estimations of the under-five mortality rate, and using calendar-year-based estimation, reduces bias (makes the estimations more accurate) and allows the effects of events such as droughts, epidemics, or conflict on under-five mortality rates to be tracked in a way that is impossible when using five-year periods of data. Given these findings, the researchers recommend that time periods shorter than five years should be adopted for the estimation of under-five mortality and that estimations should be pegged to calendar years rather than to years before the survey. Both recommendations have already been adopted by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (IGME) and were used in their 2011 analysis of under-five mortality. Additional Information Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001289. This paper is part of a collection of papers on Child Mortality Estimation Methods published in PLOS Medicine The United Nations Childrens Fund (UNICEF) works for children's rights, survival, development, and protection around the world; it provides information on Millennium Development Goal 4, and its Childinfo website provides detailed statistics about child survival and health, including a description of the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation; the 2011 IGME report on Levels and Trends in Child Mortality is available The World Health Organization also has information about Millennium Development Goal 4 and provides estimates of child mortality rates (some information in several languages) Further information about the Millennium Development Goals is available Information is also available about Demographic and Health Surveys of infant and child mortality

Background Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease characterized by intrahepatic bile-duct destruction, cholestasis, and fibrosis. It can lead to cirrhosis and eventually liver failure. PBC also shows some regional differences with respect to incidence and prevalence that are becoming more pronounced each year. Recently, researchers have paid more attention to PBC. To evaluate the development of PBC research during the past 11 years, we determined the quantity and quality of articles on this subject. We also compared the contributions of scientists from the US, UK, Japan, Italy, Germany, and China. Methods The English-language papers covering PBC published in journals from 2000 through 2010 were retrieved from the PubMed database. We recorded the number of papers published each year, analyzed the publication type, and calculated the accumulated, average impact factors (IFs) and citations from every country. The quantity and quality of articles on PBC were compared by country. We also contrasted the level of PBC research in China and other countries. Results The total number of articles did not significantly increase during the past 11 years. The number of articles from the US exceeded those from any other country; the publications from the US also had the highest IFs and the most citations. Four other countries showed complex trends with respect to the quantity and quality of articles about PBC. Conclusion The researchers from the US have contributed the most to the development of PBC research. They currently represent the highest level of research. Some high-level studies, such as RCTs, meta-analyses, and in-depth basic studies should be launched. The gap between China and the advanced level is still enormous. Chinese investigators still have a long way to go.

Few studies have examined the effects of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological conditions on the shift in human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) season in Japan. This study aims to test whether the number of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological conditions are associated with the onset week of HRSV epidemic season. The estimation of onset week for 46 prefectures (except for Okinawa prefecture) in Japan for 4-year period (2014–2017) was obtained from previous papers based on the national surveillance data. We obtained data on the yearly number of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological (yearly mean temperature and relative humidity) conditions from Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), respectively. Multi-level mixed-effects linear regression analysis showed that every 1 person (per 100,000 population) increase in number of overall inbound overseas travelers led to an earlier onset week of HRSV epidemic season in the year by 0.02 week (coefficient –0.02; P

It is essential to equip adolescents with the right information and appropriate skills for a quality transition to their adulthood. This study examines the individual agency of unmarried adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) who were organized into self-help groups (SHG) as compared to those who were not in groups. The paper uses data from a cross-sectional survey conducted with 872 unmarried AGYW aged 15–21 years from 80 villages across two districts of Uttar Pradesh, India. The dependent variables were AGYW’s financial independence, collective action, decisionmaking, mobility, self-expression, generalized perceived self-efficacy, gender norms attitudes, and attitudes toward violence. The primary independent variables were group membership and the duration of the membership. Bivariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between group membership and various components of individual agency. More than half of the respondents, with an average age of 18 years were enrolled in school or college and one-third had 12 or more years of education. The group members, compared to non-members, were significantly more likely to be financially independent (odds ratio [OR] = 2.29, p

There remains a great challenge to minimize the spread of epidemics. This may be particularly true on densely populated, residential college campuses. To construct class and residential networks I used data from a four-year, residential liberal arts college with 5539 students. Equal-sized random networks also were created for each day. Different levels of compliance with mask use (none to 100%), mask efficacy (50% to 100%), and testing frequency (daily, or every 2, 3, 7, 14, 28, or 105 days) were assessed. Tests were assumed to be only 90% accurate and positive results were used to isolate individuals. I also tested the effectiveness of contact tracing and subsequent quarantining of neighbors of infectious individuals.I used class enrollment and residence data from a college with 5539 students to analyze network structure and test the epidemic potential of the infectious disease agent SARS-CoV-2. Average path lengths were longer in the college networks compared to random networks. Students in larger majors generally had shorter average path lengths. Average transitivity (clustering) was lower on days when students most frequently were in class (MWF). Degree distributions were generally large and right skewed, ranging from 0 to 719.Simulations began by inoculating twenty students (10 exposed and 10 infectious) with SARS-CoV-2 on the first day of the fall semester and ended once the disease was cleared. Transmission probability was calculated based on an R0 = 2.4. Without interventions epidemics resulted in most students becoming infected and lasted into the second semester. On average students in the college networks experienced fewer infections, shorter duration, and lower epidemic peaks that occurred compared to dynamics on equal-sized random networks. The most important factors in reducing case numbers were the proportion masking and the frequency of testing, followed by contact tracing and mask efficacy. The paper discusses further high-order interactions and other implications of non-pharmaceutical interventions for disease transmission on a residential college campus.[Model and network data files are available at https://github.com/GreggHartvigsen/Network-epidemic-model-college-campus]Author summaryI built and analyzed daily networks for a college with 5539 students based on class enrollment and residence data over two academic semesters (fall 2019 - spring 2020). I then introduced an infectious disease agent similar to SARS-CoV-2 and tested a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to minimize the spread. The structure of these networks actually resulted in fewer students becoming infected when compared to random networks. Most important, however, was the level of masking and testing that was used to mitigate the spread. I found that with moderate levels of testing and contact tracing and/or masking the number of COVID-19 cases was well contained. Without any of these non-pharmaceutical interventions most students contracted COVID-19. Additionally, larger majors were at a slightly elevated level of risk of infection and students in classes over 40 students also were at a great risk of infection. The results suggest that college campuses should be able to contain infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, through the effective use of moderate levels of masking and testing, with resulting isolation of infectious individuals.

While research on the nexus of migration and wellbeing of individuals has gained recognition in recent years, far less attention has been devoted to intra-urban mobility especially among the urban poor young populations. We assess the drivers of intra-urban mobility using a random sample of 412 migrant street children and youth in Kampala city, Uganda. This paper draws from a larger cross-sectional survey of circular migration and sexual and reproductive health choices among street children in Kampala, Uganda. We define ‘migrants’ as street children and youth with a rural-urban migration experience and ‘intra-urban mobility’ as the number of places stayed in or moved since migrating to the city, measured on a continuous scale. More than half (54.37%) of the migrant street children and youth had lived in two or more places since migrating to the city. Multivariate negative binomial regression analysis reveals migrant street children and youth’s intra-urban mobility to be associated with gender (aIRR = 0.71, 95%CI 0.53–0.96), sex work (aIRR = 1.38, 95%CI 1.01–1.88), a daily income of one USD or more (aIRR = 1.57, 95%CI 1.16–2.13) and duration of stay in the city (aIRR = 1.54, 95%CI 1.17–2.01). Other drivers of intra-urban mobility included availability of causal work, personal safety and affordability of rental costs. Our findings suggest the need for urban housing and health policies to take into account street children and youth’s intra-urban mobility and its drivers. Future research on all drivers of street children and youth’s intra-urban mobility and its linkage with their health outcomes is recommended.

This paper aims to examine the correlates of foreign policy attitudes in Moldova by a multilevel analysis, and to also reveal some characteristics of the Moldova’s difficult geopolitical and economic context, such as the ethnical conflicts and poverty. A set of four foreign policy attitudes are explained upon individual- and regional level socio-economic and demographic correlates, of which poverty is the main focus, being represented here by several objective, subjective, uni- and multidimensional indicators. An indicator of deprivation is derived from a group of poverty indicators by the method Item Response Theory. Deprivation, subjective poverty, ethnicity and the Russian media influence are found to be associated with negative attitudes toward all foreign policies, while satisfaction with economic conditions in the country and a positive attitude toward refugees are both associated with positive attitudes toward all foreign policies.

Ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, various public health control strategies have been proposed and tested against the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. We study three specific COVID-19 epidemic control models: the susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered (SEIR) model with vaccination control; the SEIR model withshield immunitycontrol; and the susceptible, un-quarantined infected, quarantined infected, confirmed infected (SUQC) model with quarantine control. We express the control requirement inmetric temporal logic(MTL) formulas (a type of formal specification languages) which can specify the expected control outcomes such as “the deaths from the infection should never exceed one thousand per day within the next three months” or “the population immune from the disease should eventually exceed 200 thousand within the next 100 to 120 days”. We then develop methods for synthesizing control strategies with MTL specifications. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to systematically synthesize control strategies based on the COVID-19 epidemic models with formal specifications. We provide simulation results in three different case studies: vaccination control for the COVID-19 epidemic with model parameters estimated from data in Lombardy, Italy; shield immunity control for the COVID-19 epidemic with model parameters estimated from data in Lombardy, Italy; and quarantine control for the COVID-19 epidemic with model parameters estimated from data in Wuhan, China. The results show that the proposed synthesis approach can generate control inputs such that the time-varying numbers of individuals in each category (e.g., infectious, immune) satisfy the MTL specifications. The results also show that early intervention is essential in mitigating the spread of COVID-19, and more control effort is needed for morestringentMTL specifications. For example, based on the model in Lombardy, Italy, achieving less than 100 deaths per day and 10000 total deaths within 100 days requires 441.7% more vaccination control effort than achieving less than 1000 deaths per day and 50000 total deaths within 100 days.

There is evidence that adoption of non-pharmaceutical containment measures (NPMs) may have had a major impact on Covid-19 epidemic dynamics, and mitigated its effect on healthcare system. Optimal timing of implementation of these measures however is not known. In Italy, a national lockdown was decided on March 11th 2020 and ended 4th of May. At that time, cumulative incidence (CI) was different in Italian regions which ranged from 11 cases/100,000 inhabitants. In this paper, we aim to evaluate how level of incidence in different regions at the time of implementation of NPMs affected CI and had an impact on the healthcare system in terms of ICU bed occupancy and mortality rates. We used regional daily new COVID-19 diagnosed cases as well number of people hospitalized in ICU and number of deaths for period February 24-May 11 from all the 19 Italian regions and two autonomous provinces. For each region we calculated: temporal daily trend of cumulative cases of Covid-19/100,000 inhabitants, daily trend of ICU bed occupancy and mortality rate at the end of period. We found that the epidemic curves show similar trends for all regions and all tend to flatten between 11–32 days. However, after 2 months, regions with lower CI at lockdown remained at substantially lower CI (

While public engagement with science activities traditionally inhabits physical environments (i.e., museum exhibits), as the Internet becomes more ubiquitous, new types of public engagement with science mediated through information technologies have emerged. Instead of having scientific findings filtered through traditional mediators, scientists have begun to take advantage of social media in order to communicate directly with the general public. This paper focuses on technology mediated public engagement with science in an online environment, specifically the sub-Reddit called “r/science”, on a popular platform, Reddit, in which we investigated the factors contributing to user engagement and perceived effects of science communication from the users’ perspectives. The survey instrument including user engagement scales, perceived effects of science communication, and demographics were distributed among 2000 participants in the r/science Ask Me Anything (AMA) series. We analyzed 146 survey responses using descriptive statistics and ordinal logistic regression. The findings indicated that the participants were generally engaged compared to ones in other studies that used the same user engagement scales and perceived positive effects on science communication, except when it came to building trust. Furthermore, we found that time spent on this particular platform appeared to be the most important factor when it came to positive perceived effects of r/science AMAs. This type of mediated public engagement has been insufficiently investigated, most particularly in terms of the examination of participants’ perspectives. This void is addressed in this study. The findings from the study will also be informative to similar platforms that support mediated public engagement with science.

Hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease is a common childhood illness. The paper aims to capture the spatiotemporal characters, and investigate the influence factors of the HFM epidemic in 15 regions of Xinjiang province from 2008 to 2017, China. Descriptive statistical analysis shows that the children aged 0-5 years have a higher HFM incidence, mostly boys. The male-female ratio is 1.5:1. Through the scanning method, we obtain the first cluster high-risk areas. The cluster time is usually from May to August every year. A spatiotemporal model is proposed to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on HFM disease. Comparing with the spatial model, the model is more effective in terms of R2, AIC, deviation, and mean-square error. Among meteorological factors, the number of HFM cases generally increases with the intensity of rainfall. As the temperature increases, there are more HFM patients. Some regions are mostly influenced by wind speed. Further, another spatiotemporal model is introduced to investigate the relationship between HFM disease and socioeconomic factors. The results show that socioeconomic factors have significant influence on the disease. In most areas, the risk of HFM disease tends to rise with the increase of the gross domestic product, the ratios of urban population and tertiary industry. The incidence is closely related to the number of beds and population density in some regions. The higher the ratio of primary school, the lower the number of HFM cases. Based on the above analysis, it is the key measure to prevent and control the spread of the HFM epidemic in high-risk areas, and influence factors should not be ignored.

Background HIV/AIDS prevalence rates across countries of the world vary more than 500-fold from .06% in Hungary to 33.4% in Swaziland. One of the most cited research papers in the field, utilizing cross country regression analysis to analyze other correlates with this HIV prevalence data, is flawed in that it weights each country's results by the country's population. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on cross-country linear and multiple regressions using newly gathered data from UNAIDS, the number of female commercial sex workers as a percentage of the female adult population is robustly positively correlated with countrywide HIV/AIDS prevalence levels. Confirming earlier studies, female illiteracy levels, gender illiteracy differences and income inequality within countries are also significantly positively correlated with HIV/AIDS levels. Muslims as a percentage of the population, itself highly correlated with country circumcision rates and previously found to be negatively correlated with HIV/AIDS prevalence, is insignificant when the percentage of commercial sex workers in a population is included in the analysis. Conclusions/Significance This paper provides strong evidence that when conducted properly, cross country regression data does not support the theory that male circumcision is the key to slowing the AIDS epidemic. Rather, it is the number of infected prostitutes in a country that is highly significant and robust in explaining HIV prevalence levels across countries. An explanation is offered for why Africa has been hit the hardest by the AIDS pandemic and why there appears to be very little correlation between HIV/AIDS infection rates and country wealth.

Due to the increasing power of personal computers, as well as the availability of flexible forward-time simulation programs like simuPOP, it is now possible to simulate the evolution of complex human diseases using a forward-time approach. This approach is potentially more powerful than the coalescent approach since it allows simulations of more than one disease susceptibility locus using almost arbitrary genetic and demographic models. However, the application of such simulations has been deterred by the lack of a suitable simulation framework. For example, it is not clear when and how to introduce disease mutants—especially those under purifying selection—to an evolving population, and how to control the disease allele frequencies at the last generation. In this paper, we introduce a forward-time simulation framework that allows us to generate large multi-generation populations with complex diseases caused by unlinked disease susceptibility loci, according to specified demographic and evolutionary properties. Unrelated individuals, small or large pedigrees can be drawn from the resulting population and provide samples for a wide range of study designs and ascertainment methods. We demonstrate our simulation framework using three examples that map genes associated with affection status, a quantitative trait, and the age of onset of a hypothetical cancer, respectively. Nonadditive fitness models, population structure, and gene–gene interactions are simulated. Case-control, sibpair, and large pedigree samples are drawn from the simulated populations and are examined by a variety of gene-mapping methods., Author Summary Complex diseases such as hypertension and diabetes are usually caused by multiple disease-susceptibility genes, environment factors, and interactions between them. Simulating populations or samples with complex diseases is an effective approach to study the likely genetic architecture of these diseases and to develop more effective gene-mapping methods. Compared to traditional backward-time (coalescent) methods, population-based, forward-time simulations are more suitable for this task because they can simulate almost arbitrary demographic and genetic features. Forward-time simulations also allow the researcher to perform head-to-head comparisons among gene-mapping methods based on different study designs and ascertainment methods. Unfortunately, evolving a population generation by generation is a random process, so the fates of disease alleles are unpredictable and there is no effective way to control the disease allele frequency at the present generation. In this paper, the authors propose a simulation method that avoids these problems and makes forward-time population simulation a practical solution for the simulation of complex diseases.