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BACKGROUND:The clinical value of therapeutic drug monitoring can be increased most significantly by integrating assay results into clinical pharmacokinetic models for optimal dosing. The correct weighting in the modeling process is 1/variance, therefore, knowledge of the standard deviations (SD) of each measured concentration is important. Because bioanalytical methods are heteroscedastic, the concentration-SD relationship must be modeled using assay error equations (AEE). We describe a methodology of establishing AEE's for liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) drug assays using carbamazepine, fluconazole, lamotrigine and levetiracetam as model analytes. METHODS:Following method validation, three independent experiments were conducted to develop AEE's using various least squares linear or nonlinear, and median-based linear regression techniques. SD's were determined from zero concentration to the high end of the assayed range. In each experiment, precision profiles of 6 ("small" sample sets) or 20 ("large" sample sets) out of 24 independent, spiked specimens were evaluated. Combinatorial calculations were performed to attain the most suitable regression approach. The final AEE's were developed by combining the SD's of the assay results, established in 24 specimens/spiking level and using all spiking levels, into a single precision profile. The effects of gross hyperbilirubinemia, hemolysis and lipemia as laboratory interferences were investigated. RESULTS:Precision profiles were best characterized by linear regression when 20 spiking levels, each having 24 specimens and obtained by performing 3 independent experiments, were combined. Theil's regression with the Siegel estimator was the most consistent and robust in providing acceptable agreement between measured and predicted SD's, including SD's below the lower limit of quantification. CONCLUSIONS:In the framework of precision pharmacotherapy, establishing the AEE of assayed drugs is the responsibility of the therapeutic drug monitoring service. This permits optimal dosages by providing the correct weighting factor of assay results in the development of population and individual pharmacokinetic models.