Search

This paper examines four simple stereotypical electricity-sector investments and estimates selected direct and indirect job impacts. To do so, the analysis focuses on the development of a simple Input-Output model and generic financial descriptions of energy efficiency and renewable energy interventions. These are applied to the Tunisian electricity sector. Sensitivities are developed around the assumptions required to calibrate the resulting financial flows. All aspects of this analysis are open source and drawing from ubiquitously available social accounting matrices, with the aim of increasing their scalability and lowering the threshold of energy-economy modelling. This analysis is used to develop intermediate data for a dynamic systems model as well as to produce selected policy insights. They relate to: the payback period associated with energy efficiency investments; local content; capital intensity; and implications on gas (for power generation) imports. Associated with this are policy recommendations that relate to the choice of new power generation, the scheduling of energy efficiency programs and defining future data needs to better calibrate the analysis of those interventions.

This work extends a simple open source energy systems model of the Tunisian electricity sector, used for research purposes. The extension includes addition of job creation multipliers from an Input-Output analysis. Test scenarios are then developed, to assess future emissions and job creation trajectories associated with the introduction of energy efficiency and renewable energy programs. The results indicate that increased economic efficiency associated with significant (but limited) injections of energy efficiency and renewable energy reduce gas imports, reduce emissions and increase local jobs. The analysis is cursory and initial. Its objective is to enhance open modelling that can be developed and co-created for deeper policy analysis.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the economy of Tunisia, like that of many other countries. With electricity consumption dropping, consumption patterns changing, international fuel prices oscillating and uncertainty raging, the pandemic has affected not least the planning of investments in electricity supply. Although the government seems unlikely to revise the decarbonisation targets downwards, questions arise on whether the investments planned before the pandemic are still relevant in the changed global landscape and what effects they may have on the country's economy. In this study, we analyse post-pandemic scenarios for the electricity supply system of Tunisia with an energy-economy modelling framework, soft-linking the energy modelling tool OSeMOSYS and an open source Input-Output model. We extract insights on the cost-competitiveness of different – previously planned and new – electricity supply solutions and their impacts on job creation and loss in the entire economy. We find that renewable solutions based on solar photovoltaic remain highly competitive with gas-fired generation under different projections of gas prices and that several low-carbon and energy efficiency solutions have high potential for job creation. We also find that more ambitious investments in renewables and energy efficiency are needed to take Tunisia towards the path of deep decarbonisation.

Energy modelling is the process of using mathematical models to develop abstractions and then seek insights into future energy systems. It can be an abstract academic activity. Or, it can insert threads that influence our development. We argue therefore, that energy modelling that provides policy support (EMoPS) should not only be grounded in rigorous analytics, but also in good governance principles. As, together with other policy actions, it should be accountable. Almost all aspects of society and much of its impact on the environment are influenced by our use of energy. In this context, EMoPS can inspire, motivate, calibrate, and ‘post assess’ energy policy. But, such modeling is often undertaken by too few analysts under time and resource pressure. Building on the advances of ‘class leaders’, we propose that EMoPS should reach for practical goals — including engagement and accountability with the communities it involves, and those it will later affect. (We use the term Ubuntu, meaning ‘I am because you are’ to capture this interdependency). We argue that Ubuntu, together with retrievability, repeatability, reconstructability, interoperability and auditability (U4RIA) of EMoPS should be used to signal the beginnings of a new default practice. We demonstrate how the U4RIA principles can contribute in practice using recent modelling of aspirational energy futures by Costa Rica as a case study. This modelling effort includes community involvement and interfaces and integrates stakeholder involvement. It leaves a trail that allows for its auditing and accountability, while building capacity and sustainable institutional memory.