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With recent technological advances, commanders request the support of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled systems during mission planning. Future AI systems may test a wide range of courses of action (COAs) and use a simulator to test each COA's effectiveness in a war game. The COA's effectiveness is however dependent on the commanders' intent. The question arises to what degree a machine can understand the commanders' intent? Currently, the intent has to be programmed manually, costing valuable time. Therefore, we tested whether a tool can understand a freely written intent so that a commander can work with an AI system with minimal effort. The work consisted of letting a tool understand the language and grammar of the commander to find relevant information in the intent; creating a (visual) representation of the intent to the commander (back brief); and creating an intent-based computable measure of effectiveness. We proposed a novel quantitative evaluation metric for understanding the commanders' intent and tested the results qualitatively with platoon commanders of the 11th Airmobile Brigade. They were positively surprised with the level of understanding and appreciated the validation feedback. The computable measure of effectiveness is the first step toward bridging the gap between the command intent and machine learning for military mission planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we discuss how artificial intelligence (AI) could be used in political-military modeling, simulation, and wargaming of conflicts with nations having weapons of mass destruction and other high-end capabilities involving space, cyberspace, and long-range precision weapons. AI should help participants in wargames, and agents in simulations, to understand possible perspectives, perceptions, and calculations of adversaries who are operating with uncertainties and misimpressions. The content of AI should recognize the risks of escalation leading to catastrophe with no winner but also the possibility of outcomes with meaningful winners and losers. We discuss implications for the design and development of families of models, simulations, and wargames using several types of AI functionality. We also discuss decision aids for wargaming, with and without AI, informed by theory and exploratory work using simulation, history, and earlier wargaming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work reviews the development and tests of an intermediate force capability (IFC) concept development hybrid wargame aimed at examining a maritime task force's ability to counter hybrid threats in the gray zone. IFCs offer a class of response between doing nothing and using lethal force in a situation that would be politically unpalatable. Thus, the aim of the wargame is to evaluate whether IFCs can make a difference to mission success against hybrid threats in the gray zone. This wargame series was particularly important because it used traditional game mechanics in a unique and innovative way to evaluate and assess IFCs. The results of the wargame demonstrated that IFCs have a high probability of filling the gap between doing nothing and using lethal force. The presence of IFCs provided engagement time and space for the maritime task force commander. It also identified that development of robust IFC capabilities, not only against personnel, but against systems (trucks, cars, UAVs, etc.), can also effectively counter undesirable adversarial behavior [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research presents the wargaming commodity course of action automated analysis method (WCCAAM) – a novel approach to assist wargame commanders in developing and analyzing courses of action (COAs) through semi-automation of the military decision making process (MDMP). MDMP is a seven-step iterative method that commanders and mission partners follow to build an operational course of action to achieve strategic objectives. MDMP requires time, resources, and coordination – all competing items the commander weighs to make the optimal decision. WCCAAM receives the MDMP's Mission Analysis phase as input, converts the wargame into a directed graph, processes a multi-commodity flow algorithm on the nodes and edges, where the commodities represent units, and the nodes represent blue bases and red threats, and then programmatically processes the MDMP steps to output the recommended COA. To demonstrate its use, a military scenario developed in the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM) processes the various factors through WCCAAM and produces an optimal, minimal risk COA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ongoing nuclear modernization programs in Russia, China, and the USA have reopened longstanding debates among scholars concerning whether tailored nuclear weapons are likely to have destabilizing consequences for international security. Without data to adjudicate this debate, however, these discussions have remained entirely theoretical. In this article, we introduce an experimental wargaming platform, SIGNAL, to quantify the effect of tailored nuclear capabilities on the nuclear threshold in a simulated environment. We then compare these results with a survey experiment using scenarios related to military basing, cyber operations, and nuclear threats from the wargame environment. While the survey experiments suggest that the presence of tailored nuclear capabilities increases the likelihood of conflict escalation, this trend diminishes in the wargaming context. Across both data-generating processes, we find support for the proposition that lower-yield nuclear weapons are used as a substitute for their higher-yield counterparts. These results have consequences for recent and ongoing policy debates concerning strategic posture and the future of arms control. This work also makes methodological contributions to the design and application of experimental wargaming for social science research, particularly for scenarios where data are limited or non-existent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-duration logistical wargames within the Air domain are complex and highly dynamic events that are driven by aircraft availability. In order to gain insight into the impact of aircraft use, this research developed a simulation tool that uses a stepwise approach for adjudication and provides the user many capabilities including, but not limited to, the ability to have multiple bases and types of aircraft. Daily aircraft availability and missions accomplished are two critical metrics of interest. Within the simulation, the user has the ability to control types of part failures, control parts availability, control maintenance capabilities, and control number of mission scheduled. Finally, the user can account for the possibility of attrition along with the effects of numerous major events present in real-life scenarios. This tool is validated through application of a space covering design along with regression modeling and shows that the tool is well-behaved, functions as expected, and can quickly provide meaningful insights into operational scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cybersecurity threats to railways are increasing, both due to improvements in the techniques of hackers and the increasing merger of cyber and physical spheres. Accepted approaches to safety can be extended to consider the risks from cyber, however the nature of railways as complex cyber-physical systems of systems may require a broader approach beyond functional safety. This paper explores some of the cybersecurity hazards using a war gaming approach. The authors find that, while standard engineering approaches are effective in building new rail control system components, a broader and more creative consideration of attacks has benefits. In particular they identify the ability to cause mass disruption by targeting the fail-safes designed to ensure safety or auxiliary systems that are not directly classified within the scope of the ICS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We demonstrate that game-theoretic calculations serve as a useful tool for assisting cyber wargaming teams in identifying effective strategies. We note a significant similarity between formulating cyber wargaming strategies and the methodology known in the military practice as Course of Action (COA) generation. For scenarios in which the attacker must penetrate multiple layers in a defense-in-depth security configuration, an accounting of attacker and defender costs and penetration probabilities provides cost–utility payoff matrices and penetration probability matrices. These can be used as decision tools by both the defender and attacker. Inspection of the matrices allows players to deduce preferred strategies (COAs) based on game-theoretical equilibrium solutions. The matrices also help in analyzing the anticipated effects of potential human-based choices of wargame strategies and counter-strategies. We describe a mathematical game-theoretic formalism and offer detailed analysis of a cyber-physical table-top wargame executed at the US Army Research Laboratory. Our analysis shows how game-theoretical calculations can indeed provide a useful tool for effective decision-making during cyber wargames. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling complex social interaction creates a number of challenges for the strategic analyst. Firstly, the fundamental basis of an operational model has to be based on rational and verifiable metrics, but recognize that human interaction in the real world is often irrational and is rarely verifiable. Secondly, the evolving discourse between factions almost always influences the ongoing process of interaction — often creating entirely new modes of interaction as the scenario unfolds. Our solution was to continue to base the Peace Support Operations Model (PSOM) Operational Game on verifiable metrics and create an interaction process designed to include those modes of interaction that are ill-suited to structured analysis and better addressed by processes that can adapt to shifts in strategic emphasis. The PSOM Strategic Interaction Process thus follows the same turn-based design as the Operational Game, but creates a framework for political interaction and the recording of faction intent as the game proceeds. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Although the risk of an attack in a US port could be considered a low-probability event, the importance ports and waterways play in domestic and global commerce demands timely and effective mitigation of the extremely high consequences associated with restrictions to port access should we face maritime improvised explosive devices (MIEDs) in our maritime transit system (MTS). In order to address the immediate response needed to defeat this threat, we used a systems engineering design methodology to define the problem, generated appropriate operational metrics, developed a series of system alternatives, and evaluated the alternatives through modeling and simulation analysis. These alternative systems, denoted as Adaptive Force Packages (AFPs), incorporate existing systems and technologies, emerging systems, and concepts under development that can be incorporated in the long term, while addressing the varying effects of port environments on sensors and neutralization assets. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]