McMeekin P, McCarthy S, McCarthy A, Porteous J, Allen M, Laws A, White P, James M, Ford GA, Shaw L, and Price CI
Background: The long-term health-economic consequences of acute stroke are typically extrapolated from short-term outcomes observed in different studies, using models based on assumptions about longer-term morbidity and mortality. Inconsistency in these assumptions and the methods of extrapolation can create difficulties when comparing estimates of lifetime cost-effectiveness of stroke care interventions., Aims: To develop a long-term model consisting of a set of equations to estimate the lifetime effects of stroke care interventions to promote consistency in extrapolation of short-term outcomes., Methods: Data about further admissions and mortality were provided for acute stroke patients discharged between 2013 and 2014 from a large English service. This was combined with data from UK life tables to create a set of parametric equations in a model that use age, sex, and modified Rankin Scores to predict the lifetime risk of mortality and secondary care resource utilization including ED attendances, non-elective admissions, and elective admissions. A cohort of 1509 (male 51%; mean age 74) stroke patients had median follow-up of 7 years and represented 7111 post-discharge patient years. A logistic model estimated mortality within 12 months of discharge, and a Gompertz model was used over the remainder of the lifetime. Hospital attendances were modeled using a Weibull distribution. Non-elective and elective bed days were both modeled using a log-logistic distribution., Results: Mortality risk increased with age, dependency, and male sex. Although the overall pattern was similar for resource utilization, there were different variations according to dependency and gender for ED attendances and non-elective/elective admissions. For example, 65-year-old women with a mRS at discharge of 1 would gain an extra 6.75 life years compared to 65-year-old women with a mRS at discharge of 3. Over their lifetime, 65-year-old women with an mRS at discharge of 1 would experience 0.09 less ED attendances, 2.12 less non-elective bed days, and 1.28 additional elective bed days than 65-year-old women with an mRS at discharge of 3., Conclusions: Using long-term follow-up publicly available data from a large clinical cohort, this new model promotes standardized extrapolation of key outcomes over the life course and potentially can improve the real-world accuracy and comparison of long-term cost-effectiveness estimates for stroke care interventions., Data Assess Statement: Data are available upon reasonable request from third parties., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting InterestThe author(s) declared the following potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: P.M., S.M., A.M., J.P., M.A., A.L., and L.S. report no conflicting interests. P.W. reports receiving institutional unrestricted educational grants from Stryker, Penumbra, and Metronic and participation on a Data Safety Monitoring/Advisory Board for MR CLEAN NO IV, TENSION, PROTECT U (all unpaid). M.J. reports being an unpaid Trustee for the Stroke Association. G.A.F. reports that his organization receives payments from other NIHR grants, consulting fees from CSL Behring stroke trial design and Astra Zeneca interview on stroke management, payment for lectures from Bayer Cardiovascular, meeting with Primary Care Cardiovascular Society, and meeting expenses from Novartis. G.A.F. also participated on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for CSL Behring Stroke Advisory Board (personal payment), Bayer Stroke trial advisory Board (payment to institution), and Advance Accelerator Applications round table event on radioligand services (personal payment). C.I.P. reports that they receive salary support from the NIHR Program Grant for Applied Research.