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Investigating the current and future dynamics of energy consumption in modern economies such as the UK is crucial. This paper predicts the UK's energy consumption using data spanning January 1995 to March 2022 by comparing and evaluating the forecast performance of machine learning, dynamic regression, time series and combination modelling techniques. The analysis reveals that the seasonal ARIMA and TBATS hybrid models yield the lowest forecast errors in predicting the UK's electricity and gas consumption. Although the combination forecasts performed poorly relative to other models, machine learning techniques such as neural network and support vector regression produced better results compared to the dynamic regression models, whereas the seasonal hybrid model performed better than the machine learning and time series models. The results indicate that the UK's electricity consumption would either stabilise or decline over the forecast horizon, suggesting that it will take some years for electricity consumption to attain pre-2019 levels. For gas consumption, the results indicate that consumption would either maintain current levels or increase over the forecast period. We also show that combination forecasts do not often generate the best predictions, and therefore, choice of methodology matters in energy consumption forecasting. Overall, changing seasonal patterns, energy efficiency improvements, shift to renewable sources and uncertainties due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and the Russia–Ukraine crisis appear to be significant drivers of energy consumption in the UK in recent times. These findings are expected to help in designing more effective energy policies as well as guide investor decisions in the energy sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interface of a long-standing movement for sustainability at the urban scale and the imperatives of the carbon-reduction agenda are driving change in urban energy systems. This paper seeks to address the nature of that change and, in particular, to consider how different pathways of change are emerging. To do this it draws on the coevolution and pathways literatures to interrogate a database of current urban energy initiatives within the UK. This analysis reveals the multiple pathways of change though which new modes of energy production and consumption are being developed to deliver carbon reductions through the reconfiguring of urban energy systems. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these changes for urban governance and for carbon reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates energy demand in the British domestic and industrial sectors and analyzes the extent to which energy-saving technological change is exogenous, or induced by the energy price. The paper implements models with a linear trend, models making use of the price decomposition of Dargay and Gately (1995a) and the Structural Time Series Models (STSMs) of Harvey (1989). Stochastic trends have been found to be rather important while in neither of the sectors assessed in this study could the hypothesis of symmetric price effects be rejected. Following Hunt and Judge (2005), stochastic trend and asymmetric price effects are found to be substitutes in the industrial sector. In particular we conclude that asymmetric price effects can substitute for the slope in the stochastic trend. Finally, energy consumption in the industrial sector is strongly influenced by price while the effect of price in the domestic sector is markedly smaller. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of energy used to light homes in the UK continues to rise, despite the availability of compact fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs and significant policy efforts to reduce energy demand for domestic lighting. This paper examines household lighting demand, in the UK, from a socio-technical perspective, drawing on recent in-depth interview data. This research indicates that mood lighting is becoming increasingly significant, that a desire to have stylish interiors can override environmental principles, and that household lighting practices are heavily influenced by the media. The paper concludes that lighting policy must place greater emphasis on engaging with those involved in the design and promotion of household lighting, if we are to significantly reduce energy demand in this sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on a research paper which emphasises that sustainable development means reconciling an aspiration, human wellbeing. The study argues that Great Britain government's approach to this is preventing further increases in unsustainable resource use. The study also argues that sustainability understood as eco-efficiency is impossible. The paper concentrates on domestic energy use. It is suggested that to make any changes, one has to accept the changes politically. The article states that the social and psychological meaning of energy consumption should be understood. Getting more quality of life with less energy services is a way to improve the overall ratio of quality of life to environmental damage, according to the article.

Around 40% of total energy consumption in the UK is consumed by creating comfortable indoor environment for occupants. Occupants’ behaviour in terms of achieving thermal comfort could have a significant impact on a building’s energy consumption. Therefore, understanding the interactions of occupants with their buildings would be essential to provide a thermal comfort environment that is less reliance on energy-intensive heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems, to meet energy-saving and carbon emission targets. This paper presents the findings of a year-long field study conducted in non-air-conditioned office buildings in the UK. Occupants’ adaptive responses in terms of technological and personal dimensions are dynamic processes which could vary with both indoor and outdoor thermal conditions. The adaptive behaviours of occupants in the surveyed building show substantial seasonal and daily variations. Our study shows that non-physical factors such as habit could influence the adaptive responses of occupants. However, occupants sometimes displayed inappropriate adaptive behaviour, which could lead to a misuse of energy. This paper attempts to illustrate how occupants would adapt and interact with their built environment and consequently contribute to development of a guide for future design/refurbishment of buildings and to develop energy management systems for a comfortable built environment. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Ambitiously, the UK aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. Since the use of housing accounts for about 27 per cent of UK CO2, and most new-build adds to the number of homes rather than substituting for them, housing's biggest contribution to better energy use and lower carbon emissions in the UK will come from retrofitting the country's existing stock. Moreover retrofitting particularly matters to registered providers of social housing, who seek guidance about the energy efficiency of their properties. This paper argues that an exclusive focus on just one of the technical, economic or social aspects of retrofit is inadequate. Using both theory and case-based experience, it discusses a number of ways, both technical and qualitative, of best measuring what retrofitting can do. It concludes that an integrated, comprehensive understanding of the retrofit process is essential to the making of informed decisions on the energy efficiency of homes, particularly at the scales required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy prosumption has become a common phrase as more householders and communities are producing and consuming their own electricity and heat. Prosumption is a combination of two words: production and consumption, and emerged as a concept at a time when consumers were beginning to be more proactive and take over steps traditionally thought of as ‘production’. In many ways, energy prosumption is nothing new (e.g. wood combustion), yet development of our modern energy system has changed the relationships between energy producers and consumers (e.g. smart meters, renewable energy production). Thus, there is a growing body of research interested in the motivation and conditions for the uptake of microgeneration technologies and the implications to energy infrastructures and big energy producers. However, this ‘energy prosumption’ scholarship generally lacks a strong conceptual foundation and misses the opportunity to build on existing prosumption literature and related debates. This paper brings the wealth of literature on prosumption into the energy context and reflects on the insights offered by a prosumption lens. Our study explores a particular manifestation of prosumption – when a household is simultaneously a producer and consumer of their heat and/or electricity via microgeneration – and we present data from semi-structured interviews with 28 households living with microgeneration technologies in Scotland, UK. Thus, we provide a robust framework from which future research on household and community energy prosumption can build. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the background information regarding low-carbon housings in the United Kingdom and to raise the concern of the possible high indoor pollution load due to the emissions from building materials and combustion products which would adversely affect the indoor air quality in air-tight buildings, especially homes. The standard guidelines given by the Building Regulations in the UK are reviewed especially in relation to mechanical ventilation with heat recovery systems. Also research literatures in relation to heat recovery ventilators and the use of air-cleaners from Korea, Hong Kong and China and from Europe are also included to illustrate the various possibilities to conserve energy and to achieve adequate ventilation with an improvement of indoor air quality. The effectiveness of using a heat recovery ventilator system and trickle ventilators in unoccupied super-energy-efficient test houses is illustrated by reviewing the long-term indoor volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in these test houses. The awareness of the issue is important for the future design and indoor air management of buildings, so as to provide adequate ventilation for living spaces without costing too much on energy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pilot study described in this paper has investigated how UK Climate Change Agreements have affected the operations of British small and medium sized enterprises, using semi-structured interviews in a sample of companies. Results from the interviews show that the decision to sign a Climate Change Agreement was primarily economic, driven by the financial incentive of recouping up to 80 per cent of the Climate Change Levy. The procedures introduced to meet the Agreement's targets also assisted in coping with subsequent rising energy prices. Further discussions also revealed that trade associations played a positive role in providing information about opportunities provided by Climate Change Agreements and assistance in completion of the relevant documentation. The research also shows that the choice of relative, rather than absolute, targets has caused recent difficulties in view of lower production volumes during the economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the extent to which variation in heating-season, indoor relative humidity (RH) and mould occurrence in English households is explained by dwelling and household characteristics. It is based on analysis of data from a national study of England's Home Energy Efficiency scheme (Warm Front) which provides grants for energy efficiency improvements to vulnerable households. Surveys were undertaken of dwellings and households participating in the scheme in five urban areas. Half-hourly living room and main bedroom temperatures and RH measurements were recorded for two to four weeks in a subset of dwellings (no. = 1604) over the winters of 2001-02 and 2002-03. For each dwelling, regression of indoor vapour pressure excess on outdoor temperature was used to obtain estimates of daily living room and bedroom indoor vapour pressure under standardised conditions (outdoor temperature of 5°C and 80% RH), from which standardised values of indoor relative humidity were derived. We present evidence on the relationship between mould severity and standardised relative humidity, and between both these parameters and household and dwelling characteristics, including Warm Front improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new policy approach is needed to deliver carbon dioxide savings in the UK; this paper proposes carbon rationing for personal energy use. Current policies are extremely unlikely to result in sufficient savings to meet the 2010 national reduction target. Indeed, when international air travel emissions are included, carbon equivalent emissions have not actually fallen since 1990. In the domestic sector, energy efficiency is expected to deliver significant carbon savings, but data from recent decades show this to be a triumph of hope over experience. Instead carbon rations for personal transport and household energy use are suggested. Rations would be equal, tradable, mandatory and would decrease year-on-year. The aim would be to make guaranteed carbon savings in an egalitarian way. Practical details of rationing are outlined and concerns about its effects are debated. Finally, it is concluded that rationing has great potential to enable the UK, and other countries, to meet their carbon saving targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses issues and topics concerning global warming. Several nations around the world have taken measures to fight and counteract global warming. It was also proven that developed countries are the largest contributors of carbon dioxide emissions which are the primary cause of global warming including Great Britain, Australia, Brussels and Danish. It notes that Japan leads in energy efficiency. It was suggested that these great contributors of carbon emission should furnish 95 percent of the needed funds to counteract the global warming. Result of the research also shows that the main effect of carbon dioxide emission is not global warming but deadly acidification and micronutrient starvation of plant plankton in the sea, resulting to loss of all fish in 2048.

Although financial support for renewable electricity sources has existed via the non-fossil fuel obligation since 1990, the UK 'green power' market is still in its infancy. This paper looks at attitudes to tariffs for 'green power' in light of the proposed phase-out of the non-fossil fuel obligation. The hypothesis tested was the consumers' willingness to pay for electricity generated from renewable energy sources and to see if this was related to income and attitude. Data for analysis were taken from replies to a questionnaire sent to an energy-aware sub-population of Leicester which were analysed by a variety of statistical tests. Results of multiple regression analysis indicated that whether someone was willing to pay more was significantly correlated with attitude, experience (whether they had visited an environmental center) and the purchasing power placed on 5. This finding hasimplications for the methods by which support for green tariffs can be increased. Education and raising people's awareness through experience should be able to change attitudes and so increase their willingness to pay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the evolution of energy use and its influences in the United Kingdom over the very long run by combining economic literature and statistical information. Harnessing of wind, water and coal before the nineteenth century; Dominance of coal during the nineteenth century; Information on the fuel industry in the twentieth century.

Editorial. Provides information on clean coal technologies. Contribution of coal to total primary energy consumption; Importance of coal as fuel of choice in developing countries; Alternatives to replace fossil fuels; Recognition of the British government on the importance of coal in the global economy.

Heterogeneity is a theme acquiring more and more prominence in the energy economic literature from both a modelling and policy-making perspective. We show that useful empirical evidence on this subject can be obtained by applying a parsimonious multivariate cointegration analysis that makes use of the increasingly available time series data on energy demand. We find that there is substantial heterogeneity in the demand for fuels from UK firms belonging to different subsectors, with price and level of production having different degrees of importance in the fuel choice, and with evidence of both substitutability and complementarity between fuels. Moreover, we show that fuel demand for the industrial sector as a whole is considerably more elastic than most estimates presented in the literature, finding which has direct relevance for policies aimed at influencing industrial fuel consumption through fuel switching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from energy efficiency improvements in the delivery of six energy services to UK households, namely: heating; lighting; cooking; refrigeration and clothes washing; entertainment and computing; and private vehicle travel. We use a unique database on the price and quantity demanded of these energy services over the past half century. We estimate a two-stage almost ideal demand system for household expenditure, using these energy services as expenditure categories. We estimate rebound effects in terms of carbon emissions and only include the 'direct' emissions associated with energy consumption. Our results suggest direct rebound effects of 70% for heating, 54% for private vehicle travel and ~90% for the other energy services. However, these effects are offset by negative indirect rebound effects--that is, indirect rebounds contribute additional emission savings. As a result, our estimates of combined rebound effects are generally smaller, namely 54% for lighting, 55% for heating, 41% for refrigeration and clothes washing, -12% for entertainment and computing, 44% for cooking and 69% for vehicle travel. We also find some evidence that rebound effects have declined over time. We provide some important caveats to these results, and indicate priorities for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although clean growth has been identified as one of the grand challenges of the UK Industrial Strategy, public policy paid little attention to the configuration of business support towards enhancing clean growth potential of small and medium-sized enterprises. The dominant approach of policymakers to the design of enterprise support interventions appears to be 'place-blind' and downplays the challenges that small and medium-sized enterprises face in engaging with the clean growth policy agenda. Based on a mixed methods methodology, involving a survey of 306 businesses, a range of public engagement exercises and an extensive interview schedule, the study explores small and medium-sized enterprises engagement with the clean growth challenge and associated business support mechanisms. We conceptualise the nexus of place–policy–practice as a way of framing policymaking approach in addressing the challenge. As part of the clean growth policy implementation, business support mechanisms need to move beyond a singular focus on energy efficiency and shift towards a holistic approach to capacity building for sustainable development. Small business needs to project a district voice in the definition of place in the local industrial strategies and have access to enterprise support which is place-based, policy-informed and practice-relevant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior empirical studies indicate that carbon taxes have a negative impact on energy intensity, yet, the literature is unable to shed much light on the channels through which a moderate carbon tax reduces industrial energy intensity. Using a twostage econometric approach, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of the five components of the energy intensity gain (EIG) arising from the UK climate change levy (CCL). First, we propose an EIG decomposition based on a stochastic energy cost frontier and a confidential panel of UK manufacturing plants covering 2001-2006. In the second stage, we identify the impact of the CCL on EIG components using an instrumental variable (IV) approach that addresses the endogeneity of the carbon tax rules. Factor substitution and technological progress are the dominant firm responses to the CCL, while energy efficiency is surprisingly the least responsive component. Our findings underscore the challenge arising from overreliance on narrow energy policy objectives such as energy efficiency improvements, suggesting that a broader policy approach aimed at improving overall firm resource allocation might be more appropriate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines energy conservation and energy efficiency policies and programs, mainly in the UK but also in Denmark and the Netherlands. It explores the theoretical and practical differences between conservation and energy efficiency and shows how, particularly in the household sector, energy demand continued to increase despite a rangeof policies to improve energy efficiency. Energy efficiency's ability to deliver energy and CO2 savings may be significantly counter-balanced in the short term by trends towards, greater use of appliances and increasing comfort standards. Over the medium and longer term energy efficiency should prove much more beneficial as saturation is reached for many energy services. However without action to raise energy prices (e.g. through taxation) the potentially beneficial effects of energy efficiency programs may be limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we provide a timely account of how sustainable technologies become entangled with cultural practices and thus co-evolve, influencing energy consumption. In doing so, we critique the approach current UK policy takes towards energy renewal and carbon reduction. We investigate the effectiveness of the social housing sector’s efforts to implement environmental policy initiatives that use a technology-driven approach. By looking at how social housing residents consume energy as part of domestic practices, we identify tensions between strategies to influence energy consumption by a housing association, and the ways residents incorporate sustainable technologies into everyday practices. Our findings reveal how sustainable technologies become enrolled in established practices: residents creatively develop novel routine strategies to accommodate new technologies to their daily routines. We contend that policy efforts to engender ‘behaviour change’ through a technology-driven approach have limitations. This approach ignores how practices become entangled, affecting energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a major sector contributing to the UK’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, housing is an important focus of government policies to mitigate climate change. Current policy promotes the application of a variety of energy efficiency measures to a diverse building stock, which will likely lead to a wide range of unintended consequences. We have undertaken a scoping review identifying more than 100 unintended consequences impacting building fabric, population health and the environment, thus highlighting the urgent need for government and society to reconsider its approach. Many impacts are connected in complex relationships. Some are negative, others possibly co-benefits for other objectives. While there are likely to be unavoidable trade-offs between different domains affected and the emissions reduction policy, a more integrated approach to decision making could ensure co-benefits are optimised, negative impacts reduced and trade-offs are dealt with explicitly. Integrative methods can capture this complexity and support a dynamic understanding of the effects of policies over time, bringing together different kinds of knowledge in an improved decision-making process. We suggest that participatory systems dynamics with multi/inter-disciplinary stakeholders is likely to offer a useful route forward, supporting cross-sectorial policy optimisation that places reducing housing GHG emissions alongside other housing policy goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high cost of meeting peak demand for electricity could be reduced if demand could be smoothed. Growth in the use of intermittent, renewable sources of energy will reinforce the need to be able reduce demand when necessary. "Smart" meters for electricity and gas could meet this need, and, by 2018, plans exist for all UK households to have them. However, the UK government's cost-benefit analyses of smart meters for electricity make little mention of their most powerful capability: to set prices in real time, so that consumers pay high prices when supply is tight. Without this, the benefits of smart meters may not be enough to repay the huge cost of their installation. Officialdom's silence on time-of-day pricing means that its impact on poor consumers is not addressed. With smart meters for gas, the case for introduction, even with time-of-day pricing, is equally unconvincing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1997, the European Union adopted the ambitious target of doubling the share of renewables in total primary energy consumption by 2010. However, by 2003 the EU was still recording low achievement levels, due largely to variation in the generosity and stability of member-state policies to support the diffusion of renewable energy. This article surveys national variation in the diffusion of renewable energy, linking this variation to the degree of ambition in governmental policies. After discussing what drives national policies, we conclude that policy ambitiousness reflects the degree to which salient national energy-related problems converge around renewable energy diffusion as a joint solution. Countries with ambitious renewable energy policies are found to have many unsolved national energy-related problems and an abundant primary renewable energy resource base that could be developed for solving these problems. Countries with less ambitious policies, on the other hand, have fewer salient national energy-related problems or a less abundant renewable energy resource base. Among energy-related problems, the lack of national energy security in combination with policy ambitions to assist new industrial activities emerges as a particularly forceful policy driver. A side-effect of the convergence of many national problems around renewable energy diffusion as solution is that strong advocacy coalitions can more readily be forged to lobby for generous and stable governmental renewable energy policies. Local-level factors will, however, condition the effect of central government policies. Countries that have ensured co-decision power for local communities and benefit-sharing rights in renewable energy development are more likely to sec their ambitious national policies result in diffusion, in contrast to countries with policies that ignore demands at the local level. The UK and Spain, representing low- and high-diffusion countries, respectively, are here discussed as major cases, supported by evidence from other EU member countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a structural time series (STS) analysis of transport oil demand in Great Britain and Japan in 2003. Estimation of the income and price elasticities of demand for transportation oil demand in the two countries; Advantage of using STS models in estimating energy demand models; Factors which determine energy demand in a country.

The article focuses on the role of behaviour and behaviour change within the context of energy reduction. It discusses a study, commissioned by Great Britain Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), which found that the use of in-home advice or informative leaflets within social housing and buildings did not significantly reduce gas consumption during the trial period.

There have been a number of initiatives in the UK to increase the energy efficiency of homes by offering improvements to thermal performance through grant schemes. Although the outcomes of these schemes are often linked to health, inherent problems in these schemes mean that is unlikely that there will be any measurable health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]