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Building on cornerstone traditions in historical sociology, as well as work in environmental sociology and political-economic sociology, we theorize and investigate with moderation analysis how and why national militaries shape the effect of economic growth on carbon pollution. Militaries exert a substantial influence on the production and consumption patterns of economies, and the environmental demands required to support their evolving infrastructure. As far-reaching and distinct characteristics of contemporary militarization, we suggest that both the size and capital intensiveness of the world's militaries enlarge the effect of economic growth on nations' carbon emissions. In particular, we posit that each increases the extent to which the other amplifies the effect of economic growth on carbon pollution. To test our arguments, we estimate longitudinal models of emissions for 106 nations from 1990 to 2016. Across various model specifications, robustness checks, a range of sensitivity analyses, and counterfactual analysis, the findings consistently support our propositions. Beyond advancing the environment and economic growth literature in sociology, this study makes significant contributions to sociological research on climate change and the climate crisis, and it underscores the importance of considering the military in scholarship across the discipline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling asymmetric relationships is an emerging subject of interest among sociologists. York and Light advanced a method to estimate asymmetric models with panel data, which was further developed by Allison. However, little attention has been given to the large- N, large- T case, wherein autoregression, slope heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence are important issues to consider. The authors fill this gap by conducting Monte Carlo experiments comparing the bias and power of the fixed-effects estimator to a set of heterogeneous panel estimators. The authors find that dynamic misspecification can produce substantial biases in the coefficients. Furthermore, even when the dynamics are correctly specified, the fixed-effects estimator will produce inconsistent and unstable estimates of the long-run effects in the presence of slope heterogeneity. The authors demonstrate these findings by testing for directional asymmetry in the economic development–CO2 emissions relationship, a key question in macro sociology, using data for 66 countries from 1971 to 2015. The authors conclude with a set of methodological recommendations on modeling directional asymmetry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]