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BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. METHODS: We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. RESULTS: People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of cladribine tablets, an oral disease-modifying treatment (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS), was established in clinical trials and confirmed with real-world experience. OBJECTIVES: Use real-world data to compare treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in people with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine tablets versus other oral DMTs. METHODS: Retrospective treatment comparisons were based on data from the international MSBase registry. Eligible pwMS started treatment with cladribine, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide tablets from 2018 to mid-2021 and were censored at treatment discontinuation/switch, death, loss to follow-up, pregnancy, or study period end. Treatment persistence was evaluated as time to discontinuation/switch; relapse outcomes included time to first relapse and annualized relapse rate (ARR). RESULTS: Cohorts included 633 pwMS receiving cladribine tablets, 1195 receiving fingolimod, 912 receiving dimethyl fumarate, and 735 receiving teriflunomide. Individuals treated with fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide switched treatment significantly more quickly than matched cladribine tablet cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 4.00 (2.54-6.32), 7.04 (4.16-11.93), and 6.52 (3.79-11.22), respectively). Cladribine tablet cohorts had significantly longer time-to-treatment discontinuation, time to first relapse, and lower ARR, compared with other oral DMT cohorts. CONCLUSION: Cladribine tablets were associated with a significantly greater real-world treatment persistence and more favorable relapse outcomes than all oral DMT comparators.

Background: Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis commonly switch between disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). Identifying predictors of relapse when switching could improve outcomes. Objective(s): To determine predictors of relapse hazard when switching to cladribine. Method(s): Data of patients who switched to cladribine, grouped by prior disease-modifying therapy (pDMT; interferon-beta/glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, fingolimod or natalizumab (NTZ)), were extracted from the MSBase Registry. Predictors of relapse hazard during the treatment gap and the first year of cladribine therapy were determined. Result(s): Of 513 patients, 22 relapsed during the treatment gap, and 38 within 1 year of starting cladribine. Relapse in the year before pDMT cessation predicted treatment gap relapse hazard (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03-5.71). After multivariable adjustment, relapse hazard on cladribine was predicted by relapse before pDMT cessation (HR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.01-4.02), treatment gap relapse (HR = 6.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.65-14.41), switch from NTZ (HR compared to injectable therapies 4.08, 95% CI = 1.35-12.33) and age at cladribine start (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.91-0.99). Conclusion(s): Relapse during or prior to the treatment gap, and younger age, are of prognostic relevance in the year after switching to cladribine. Switching from NTZ is also independently associated with greater relapse hazard.Copyright © The Author(s), 2022.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. METHODS: In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. RESULTS: The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

BACKGROUND: The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability. OBJECTIVE: To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS. METHODS: The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C. RESULTS: A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model. CONCLUSION: Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Background/objective: Observational clinical data from cladribine-treated patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) were recorded in the Australian MS registry powered by the MSBase registry platform (5-year follow-up) and analysed to complement information from the pivotal cladribine clinical trials in MS. Method(s): A cohort of 90 cladribine-treated patients with follow-up data reported by treating physicians and recorded in the Australian MSBase registry (database lock February 2016) were examined. Clinical data included Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, relapses and other disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) administered before and after cladribine treatment. Result(s): Mean age on starting cladribine was 47 years; mean age at MS onset was 34 years, and median baseline EDSS score was 5.25. Disability trajectories in patients with sufficient follow-up suggested an overall increasing trend prior to cladribine treatment which was reduced during the 2-year post-treatment. Approximately 80% of patients were EDSS progression-free, 65% remained relapse-free after 2 years and median time to next DMD was 1.7 years. Conclusion(s): These observational data suggest a disease-modifying effect in this cohort of relapsing MS patients characterised by older and more disabled patients. Since these data represent a single-arm cohort, clinical trials and larger comparative post-marketing studies are needed to validate and extend these findings.Copyright © The Author(s), 2020.

Background: Ocrelizumab (OCR) is a humanised anti-CD20+ monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS), and relapsing forms of MS, including both relapsing-remitting (RRMS) and secondary progressive MS (SPMS) with relapses. Objective(s): In a real-world setting, to describe 1) baseline characteristics of patients with MS treated with OCR, 2) treatment pathway across lines of therapy up to initiation of OCR, and 3) initial clinical experience in patients with >=6 months follow-up data from OCR initiation. Method(s): Secondary data analysis using MSBase Registry data including patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and started OCR therapy within 3 months prior to or at time of MSBase eligible/ initial visit. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze baseline patient characteristics' recorded within 3 months of OCR initiation, including demographics, disease course and duration, prior disease modifying therapies (DMT), and EDSS. Occurrence of relapse was analyzed in patients with >=6 months follow-up data from OCR initiation. Result(s): As of 4th June 2020, MSBase included 2531 patients newly treated with OCR, of whom 1679 had an EDSS evaluation within 3 months of OCR start. There were 1185 patients with RRMS, 236 with SPMS, and 183 with PPMS. Median age at OCR initiation was 41.9 years, 49.5 years, to 50.1 years in RRMS, SPMS, and PPMS, respectively. Mean disease duration from symptom onset up to OCR initiation was longer in SPMS (19.7 years) than in RRMS (10.6 years) and PPMS (9.7 years). OCR was initiated as first line therapy in 17.5%, 5.5%, and 54.2% of RRMS, SPMS, and PPMS patients respectively. Most frequent previous DMT's in RRMS were fingolimod (25.7%) and natalizumab (23.5%). 693 patients with RRMS had >=6 months followup during OCR exposure. Of these, 643 remained relapse free (93%; 95% CI 86.0, 100.0) over a mean OCR exposure of 1.23 years. The annualized relapse rate (ARR) was 0.08 (95% CI 0.06- 0.10)

Aims: To retrospectively assess factors associated with John Cunningham virus (JCV) seroconversion in natalizumab-treated patients. Background(s): Natalizumab is highly effective for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), but its use is complicated by opportunistic JCV infection. This virus can result in progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Serial assessment of JCV serostatus is mandated during natalizumab treatment. Method(s): Patients treated with natalizumab for RRMS at six tertiary hospitals in Melbourne, Australia (n = 865) and 11 MS treatment centres in Brazil (n = 136) were assessed for change in JCV serostatus, duration of exposure to natalizumab and prior immunosuppression. Sensitivity analyses examined whether sex, age, tertiary centre, prior immunosuppression or number of JCV tests affected time to seroconversion. Result(s): From a cohort of 1001 natalizumab-treated patients, durable positive seroconversion was observed in 83 of 345 initially JCV negative patients (24.1%; 7.3% per year). Conversely, 16 of 165 initially JCV positive patients experienced durable negative seroconversion (9.7%; 3.8% per year). Forty patients (3.9%) had fluctuating serostatus. Time-to-event analysis did not identify a relationship between JCV seroconversion and duration of natalizumab exposure. Prior exposure to immunosuppression was not associated with an increased hazard of positive JCV seroconversion. Male sex was associated with increased JCV seroconversion risk [adjusted hazard ratio 2.09 (95% confidence interval 1.17-3.71) p = 0.012]. Conclusion(s): In this large international cohort of natalizumab-treated patients we observed an annual durable positive seroconversion rate of 7.3%. This rate exceeds that noted in registration and post-marketing studies for natalizumab. This rate also greatly exceeds that predicted by epidemiological studies of JCV seroconversion in healthy populations. Taken together, our findings support emerging ev

Background: Increasingly, people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) are switched to highly effective disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) such as ocrelizumab. Objective(s): To determine predictors of relapse and disability progression when switching from another DMT to ocrelizumab. Method(s): Patients with RRMS who switched to ocrelizumab were identified from the MSBase Registry and grouped by prior disease-modifying therapy (pDMT; interferon-beta/glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, fingolimod or natalizumab) and washout duration (<1 month, 1-2 months or 2-6 months). Survival analyses including multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify predictors of on-ocrelizumab relapse within 1 year, and 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP). Result(s): After adjustment, relapse hazard when switching from fingolimod was greater than other pDMTs, but only in the first 3 months of ocrelizumab therapy (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.57-11.11, p = 0.004). The adjusted hazard for CDP was significantly higher with longer washout (2-6 m compared to <1 m: HR = 9.57, 95% CI = 1.92-47.64, p = 0.006). Conclusion(s): The risk of disability worsening during switch to ocrelizumab is reduced by short treatment gaps. Patients who cease fingolimod are at heightened relapse risk in the first 3 months on ocrelizumab. Prospective evaluation of strategies such as washout reduction may help optimise this switch.Copyright © The Author(s), 2021.

Background: Our current understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies is limited. Objective(s): To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in MS varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Method(s): Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models (MSMs) were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. MSMs were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23 687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMT experienced 20% greater chance of disability improvement [HR 1.20 (95% CI 1.0-1.5)], 47% lower risk of disability worsening [HR 0.53 (0.39-0.71)] and 51% reduction in relapses [HR 0.49 (0.43-0.55)]. The effect of DMT on relapses and EDSS worsening was attenuated with longer MS duration and higher prior relapse rate. The effect of DMT on EDSS improvement and relapses was more evident in low EDSS categories. DMT was associated with 51% EDSS improvement in patients without new MRI lesions [HR 1.51 (1.00-2.28)] compared to 4% in those with MRI activity [HR 1.04 (0.88-1.24)]. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMT was associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR 0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR 0.58 (CI 0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR 1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR 1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, pro

Introduction: Ocrelizumab, a monoclonal antibody targeted against CD20+ B cells, has become a popular treatment for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). The effectiveness of ocrelizumab compared to other treatments is however unknown. Aim(s): To compare the effectiveness of ocrelizumab with interferon-beta, fingolimod and natalizumab in relapsing-remitting MS. Method(s): Using the MSBase registry, we identified patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated for >=6 months with ocrelizumab, interferon- beta (interferon beta-1a, interferon beta-1b subcutaneous or interferon beta-1b intramuscular), fingolimod or natalizumab. All patients required >12-month pre-treatment follow up and the minimum dataset. Patients with comparable baseline characteristics were matched with propensity score on age, sex, MS duration, EDSS, prior relapse rate, prior therapy, disease activity, MRI lesion burden (missing values imputed), reason for discontinuation of preceding therapy (imputed) and country. Annualised rate of relapses (ARR) and cumulative hazard of relapses were compared in pairwise-censored groups. Result(s): 106 patients treated with ocrelizumab were matched with 209 patients on interferon therapies with a mean age of 39 years, 0.8 relapses per year and mean EDSS of 2.4-2.5. Over a pairwise-censored mean follow up of 1.3 years, ocrelizumab was associated with lower relapse rates (ARR 0.08 vs 0.27, p<0.001) and lower risk of relapse (HR 0.30, 95%CI 0.15-0.57) than interferon-beta. 297 patients treated with ocrelizumab were matched with 811 fingolimod-treated patients with a mean age of 41 years, 0.6 relapses per year and mean EDSS of 2.7-2.8. Over a pairwisecensored mean follow up of 1.5 years, ocrelizumab was associated with lower relapse rates (ARR 0.03 vs 0.14, p<0.001) and lower risk of relapse than fingolimod (HR 0.21, 0.13-0.32). 262 ocrelizumab- treated patients were matched with 343 natalizumab treated patients with a mean age of 39 years, 0.8 relapses per year

Background: Cladribine tablets are approved for treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) in many jurisdictions. Real-world outcomes data is very limited. Objective(s): We analysed the cladribine treatment experience in the MSBase registry. We described baseline characteristics, treatment pathways, and relapse and discontinuation outcomes in patients with >=6 months follow-up data from cladribine initiation. Method(s): We performed a secondary data analysis using MSBase Registry data of patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and newly treated with cladribine tablets after regulatory approval. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze baseline patient characteristics recorded within 3 months prior to cladribine tablets initiation, including demographics, disease course and duration, prior disease modifying drugs (DMD), and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Result(s): As of the 4th June 2020, MSBase included 660 patients treated with cladribine from 9 countries, mainly from Australia and Europe. A total of 576 met all inclusion criteria. These included 496 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients. In these, median age at cladribine tablets start was 45 years and median disease duration since clinically isolated syndrome was 12.6 years. Median EDSS at cladribine tablets start was 2.5. Around 13% of all RRMS patients initiated cladribine tablets as first line therapy. Of all RRMS patients switching to cladribine tablets with a treatment gap of <6 months, the most common immediate prior DMDs were fingolimod (17%), followed by natalizumab, teriflunomide and dimethylfumarate (all appx. 10%). Total follow- up time was 340 patient-years. Annualised relapse rate (ARR) on cladribine tablets was 0.12 (95%CI 0.09-0.17), compared to a pre-cladribine ARR of 0.38. Treatment persistence was 95% after 12 months (95%CI 91-98%), and 92% after 24 months (95%CI 87-96%). Conclusion(s): This study characterizes RRMS patients treated with cladribine tablets in a real-world clinic setti

Background: Some cohort studies have reported similar onset age and disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive MS (PPMS, SPMS); others have reported later onset and faster disability accrual in SPMS. Comparisons are complicated by differences in baseline disability and exposure to disease-modifying therapies (DMT), and by lack of a standardized definition of SPMS. Objective(s): We compared hazards of disability accrual in PPMS and SPMS patients from the MSBase cohort using multivariable Cox models, applying validated diagnostic criteria for SPMS (Lorscheider et al., Brain 2016). Method(s): Inclusion required adult-onset progressive MS; >= 3 recorded Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores; and, for SPMS, initial records with EDSS <= 3 to allow objective identification of SPMS conversion. Phenotypes were subgrouped as active (PPMS-A, SPMS-A) if >= 1 progressive-phase relapse was recorded, and inactive (PPMS-N, SPMS-N) otherwise. Disability accrual was defined by sustained EDSS increases confirmed over >= 6 months. Hazard ratios (HR) for disability accrual were obtained using Andersen-Gill Cox models, adjusted for sex and time-varying age, disability, visit frequency, and proportion of time on DMT or immunosuppressive therapy. Sensitivity analyses were performed using (1) PPMS and SPMS diagnosed since 1995, and (2) physician-diagnosed SPMS. Cumulative probability of reaching EDSS >= 7 (wheelchair required) was assessed (Kaplan-Meier). Result(s): 5461 patients were included (1257 PPMS-N; 1308 PPMS-A; 1731 SPMS-N; 1165 SPMS-A). Age at progression onset was older in SPMS than PPMS (47.2 +/- 10.2, vs. 41.5 +/- 10.7 [mean +/- SD]), and in the inactive subgroups of each phenotype. Hazard of disability accrual was decreased in SPMS relative to PPMS (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78-0.92); decreased by proportion of time on DMT (HR 0.99 per 10% increment; 0.98-0.99); and higher in males (1.18; 1.12-1.25). Relative to PPMS-N, hazard was decreased in SPMS-A (0.79; 0.71

Introduction: People with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) commonly switch between disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). Identifying predictors of relapse outcomes when switching to more recently approved therapies such as cladribine could improve outcomes. Aim(s): This study aimed to characterise relapse activity and determine predictors of relapse occurrence in the first year of cladribine treatment, after switching from other DMTs. Method(s): We identified patients with RRMS from the MSBase Registry who switched to cladribine from five prior DMT groups (pDMT; interferon-beta/glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, fingolimod or natalizumab). Relapse occurrence during the washout and in the first year of cladribine were compared between pDMTs and washout duration groups (<1 month, 1-2 months, or 2-6 months). Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyse time to first relapse in the first year of cladribine therapy. Result(s): In a cohort of 333 patients with a mean washout duration of 43.1 days, 17 (5.1%) relapsed during the washout period and 24 (7.2%) relapsed within one year of starting cladribine. Of those who relapsed during their washout period, seven (41.2%) also relapsed on cladribine, compared to 5.4% of those who did not experience a washout relapse. In the adjusted survival model, relapse on cladribine was predicted by washout relapse (hazard ratio [HR]=7.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.48-34.88, p=0.015) and younger age (HR=0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99, p=0.038). Washout durations longer than two months increased relapse risk during the washout, but did not alter relapse risk on cladribine. There were no significant differences in relapse outcomes between pDMTs. Conclusion(s): Washout relapse and younger age are of prognostic relevance when switching to cladribine. Washout durations shorter than two months were associated with fewer washout relapses. Prospective studies are needed to assess if washout period red

Introduction: Cladribine tablets are approved for relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) treatment in many jurisdictions. MSBase investigators are committed to characterising real-world longitudinal treatment outcomes using this registry data. Objective(s): To describe cladribine treatment outcomes in the MSBase cohort. These include baseline characteristics, treatment pathways, discontinuation rate, and relapse outcomes. Method(s): We extracted from the MSBase registry data for all patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MS who were newly treated with cladribine tablets. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse baseline patient characteristics recorded within 3 months prior to cladribine tablets initiation, including demographics, disease course and duration, prior disease modifying drugs (DMD), and EDSS. Relapse and discontinuation outcomes were described in patients with a minimum 6 month observation period. Result(s): As of 3rd March 2021, a total of 782 patients, predominantly from Australia, Canada and Spain, were included. 696 were relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients. The median age of cladribine tablet start was 43.8 years and median disease duration was 11.8 years. Median EDSS at cladribine initiation was 2 (IQR 1.5,4). 13.3% of all RRMS patients initiated cladribine as first line therapy. Of all RRMS patients switching to cladribine tablets with a treatment gap of <6 months, the most common immediate prior DMD was Fingolimod (15%), followed by Natalizumab (10%) and Teriflunomide (9.5%). Total follow-up time was 629 patientyears. Annualised relapse rate (ARR) on cladribine tablets was 0.11 (95% CI 0.09-0.14) compared to a 12-month pre-cladribine ARR of 0.41. Treatment persistence was 96% at 12 months (95% CI 0.94-0.98) and 90% after 24months (95% CI 0.85-0.94). Conclusion(s): The growing MSBase real-world cladribine cohort shows excellent outcomes to date. The most common switches to cladribine are from other high-efficacy DMTs such as Natalizumab or Fingo

BACKGROUND: Family planning and pregnancy decisions are key considerations in the management of women with multiple sclerosis (MS), who are typically diagnosed between the ages of 20-40 years. Despite a strong evidence base that pregnancy is not harmful for women with MS, many knowledge gaps remain. These include: best management strategies through pregnancy in the era of highly effective disease-modifying therapies (DMT); foetal risks associated with DMT exposure in utero or in relation to breastfeeding; knowledge base around the use of assisted reproductive technologies; the long-term impact of pregnancy on disease outcomes, as well as the impact of long-term DMT use on women's health and cancer risk. METHODS: Here, we describe the new MSBase pregnancy, neonatal outcomes and women's health registry. We provide the rationale for, and detailed description of, the variables collected within the registry, together with data acquisition details. CONCLUSION: The present paper will act as a reference document for future studies.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Observational clinical data from cladribine-treated patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) were recorded in the Australian MS registry powered by the MSBase registry platform (5-year follow-up) and analysed to complement information from the pivotal cladribine clinical trials in MS. METHODS: A cohort of 90 cladribine-treated patients with follow-up data reported by treating physicians and recorded in the Australian MSBase registry (database lock February 2016) were examined. Clinical data included Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, relapses and other disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) administered before and after cladribine treatment. RESULTS: Mean age on starting cladribine was 47 years; mean age at MS onset was 34 years, and median baseline EDSS score was 5.25. Disability trajectories in patients with sufficient follow-up suggested an overall increasing trend prior to cladribine treatment which was reduced during the 2-year post-treatment. Approximately 80% of patients were EDSS progression-free, 65% remained relapse-free after 2 years and median time to next DMD was 1.7 years. CONCLUSION: These observational data suggest a disease-modifying effect in this cohort of relapsing MS patients characterised by older and more disabled patients. Since these data represent a single-arm cohort, clinical trials and larger comparative post-marketing studies are needed to validate and extend these findings.

AIMS: To retrospectively assess factors associated with John Cunningham virus (JCV) seroconversion in natalizumab-treated patients. BACKGROUND: Natalizumab is highly effective for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), but its use is complicated by opportunistic JCV infection. This virus can result in progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Serial assessment of JCV serostatus is mandated during natalizumab treatment. METHODS: Patients treated with natalizumab for RRMS at six tertiary hospitals in Melbourne, Australia (n = 865) and 11 MS treatment centres in Brazil (n = 136) were assessed for change in JCV serostatus, duration of exposure to natalizumab and prior immunosuppression. Sensitivity analyses examined whether sex, age, tertiary centre, prior immunosuppression or number of JCV tests affected time to seroconversion. RESULTS: From a cohort of 1001 natalizumab-treated patients, durable positive seroconversion was observed in 83 of 345 initially JCV negative patients (24.1%; 7.3% per year). Conversely, 16 of 165 initially JCV positive patients experienced durable negative seroconversion (9.7%; 3.8% per year). Forty patients (3.9%) had fluctuating serostatus. Time-to-event analysis did not identify a relationship between JCV seroconversion and duration of natalizumab exposure. Prior exposure to immunosuppression was not associated with an increased hazard of positive JCV seroconversion. Male sex was associated with increased JCV seroconversion risk [adjusted hazard ratio 2.09 (95% confidence interval 1.17-3.71) p = 0.012]. CONCLUSION: In this large international cohort of natalizumab-treated patients we observed an annual durable positive seroconversion rate of 7.3%. This rate exceeds that noted in registration and post-marketing studies for natalizumab. This rate also greatly exceeds that predicted by epidemiological studies of JCV seroconversion in healthy populations. Taken together, our findings support emerging evidence tha

Introduction: Ocrelizumab (OCR) is a humanised anti-CD20+ monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS), and relapsing forms of MS, including both relapsing-remitting (RRMS) and secondary progressive (SPMS). Objective(s): In a real-world setting, to describe 1) baseline characteristics of patients with MS treated with OCR, 2) treatment pathway across lines of therapy up to initiation of OCR, and 3) initial clinical experience in patients with >=6 months follow-up data from OCR initiation Methods: Secondary data analysis using MSBase Registry data including patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and newly treated with OCR after regulatory approval. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze baseline patients' characteristics recorded within 3 months prior to or at time of OCR initiation, including demographics, disease course and duration, prior disease modifying therapies (DMT), and EDSS. Occurrence of relapse was analyzed in patients with >=6 months follow-up data since OCR initiation. Result(s): As of 6th March 2019, MSBase included 1216 patients newly treated with OCR (15 countries, mainly from across Europe and Australia), 882 patients with RRMS, 160 with SPMS, and 174 with PPMS. Median age at OCR initiation varied from 42.8 years, 49.2 years, to 52.4 years in patients with RRMS, SPMS, and PPMS, respectively. Most RRMS and SPMS patients were female (69.6% and 64.4%) by contrast to PPMS patients (43.1% females). Median disease duration from symptom onset up to OCR initiation was longer in SPMS (19.7 years) than in RRMS (9.7 years) and PPMS (8.7 years). Median EDSS at OCR start was 3.0, 6.5, and 6.0 in RRMS, SPMS, and PPMS, respectively. OCR was initiated as first line therapy in 11.2%, 3.1%, and 58.1% of RRMS, SPMS, and PPMS patients respectively. 583 RRMS patients initiated OCR switching from another DMT, primarily natalizumab (37.9%) and fingolimod (34.1%). 234 patients with RRMS had >=6 months follow-up dur

Background: Using the MSBase registry, we characterised profiles of patients initiated on the recently approved treatment Cladribine. Objective(s): To describe baseline characteristics of patients with MS treated with cladribine, treatment pathway up to initiation of cladribine, and initial clinical experience in patients with >=6 months follow-up. Method(s): Using MSBase Registry data including patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and treated with cladribine after regulatory approval. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse baseline characteristics recorded within 3 months prior to or at time of cladribine initiation, including demographics, disease course and duration, prior disease modifying therapies (DMT), and EDSS. Occurrence of relapse was analysed in patients with >=6 months follow-up data from cladribine initiation. Result(s): As of the 8th July 2019, MSBase included 317 patients treated with cladribine including 260 RRMS patients and 44 with SPMS. Median age at cladribine initiation was 44.98 years in RRMS and 57.28 years in SPMS. Median EDSS at cladribine start was 2.5 and 6.5 in RRMS and SPMS, respectively. Patientsswitched primarily from fingolimod or natalizumab and for 17%, Cladribine was their first treatment. 207 patients with RRMS had >=6 months follow-up after cladribine exposure. Of these, 10 (4.8%) experienced >=1 clinical relapse within the first 6 months on cladribine. Conclusion(s): This study characterizes patients with MS newly treated with cladribine in a real-world clinical setting. Median EDSS and disease duration were relatively high in this analysis. Rates of discontinuation were low in the first year and relapse rates similar to phase III studies.

Background: Cladribine has recently been introduced to the armamentarium of therapies for relapsing MS. Objective(s): To report relapses and disability in patients who were treated with cladribine as part of a product familiarisation program in Australia in 2011. Method(s): Patients exposed to oral cladribine, cumulative dose 1.75 mg/kg, between January and July 2011, enrolled in the MSBase registry were included. Incidence of relapses and disability (EDSS) were reported by the patients' treating physicians and recorded in the MSBase database. Result(s): This cohort of patients were older and had a higher EDSS at commencing oral cladribine than patients in the clinical trials of oral cladribine. Mean age at commencing cladribine was 47 years, age at MS onset was 34 years, duration of MS was 13 years and median EDSS score was 5.25. Disability trajectories suggested an overall increasing trend prior to treatment with cladribine, which was reduced during the 2 years following treatment. Based on EDSS scores, approximately 80% of patients were free from progression, 65% of patients remained relapse free after 2 years and median time to next DMT was 1.7 years. Conclusion(s): The data from the Australian oral cladribine product familiarisation program complement the information form clinical trials and a head-to-head comparison of observational data. This information suggests cladribine is associated with reduction in the rate of disability worsening for at least two years from the initial treatment administration. The studied data are limited and representative post-marketing studies, including safety surveillance, are needed.

Introduction: Prevention of disability over the long-term is currently the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS). Randomized clinical trials evaluate short-term treatment effect on disability in the form of 3-6-month confirmed disability progression. Using global MSBase registry, this study establishes 6-month confirmed disability progression events as indicators of long-term disability worsening suitable for use in randomized clinical trials. Method(s): A Cox proportional hazards model in the development cohort identified associations between demographic and clinical variables at the time of disability progression and the probability of an event not being sustained in the future. The coefficients from this model were used to calculate a sustained progression score. Its association with the risk that an event will be sustained over timewas evaluated with a Cox model in the validation cohort. Result(s): 11,435 confirmed progression events identified in 6,902 patients constituted the development cohort. Patient characteristics at the time of progression associated with lower probability of subsequent improvement were age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.98), primary progressive (HR=0.37) and progressive-relapsing (HR=0.36) MS, expanded disability status scale score >=6 (HR=0.71) and its change from baseline (HR=0.67), number of affected functional system scores (HR=0.92) and pyramidal(HR=0.79) functional system score (p< 0.05). The strength of the association with pyramidal score decreased with time(HR=1.01). Occurrence of a relapse within previous month (HR=1.46) and worsening in sensory functional system score (HR=1.17) were associated with higher probability of improvement after progression. The associations were confirmed by two sensitivity analyses. The sustained progression score, ranged 0.39-4.79 in the validation cohort with 1,271 progression events, estimated a 53% lower chance of improvement with each unit increase in the score (HR=0.47, 95% confidence interval

Introduction: Cladribine tablets were recently approved for treatment of Multiple Sclerosis in many jurisdictions. We characterised the profiles of patients initiated on cladribine in the global MSBase registry. Objective(s): In a real-world setting, to describe 1) baseline characteristics of patients with MS treated with cladribine, 2) treatment pathway across lines of therapy up to initiation of cladribine, and 3) initial clinical experience in patients with >=6 months follow-up data from cladribine initiation Methods: Secondary data analysis using MSBase Registry data including patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and newly treated with cladribine after regulatory approval. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze baseline patient characteristics recorded within 3 months prior to or at time of cladribine initiation, including demographics, disease course and duration, prior disease modifying therapies (DMT), and EDSS. Occurrence of relapse was analyzed in patients with >=6 months follow-up data from cladribine initiation. Result(s): As of the 5th April 2019, MSBase included 337 patients newly treated with cladribine from 9 countries, mainly across Australian and Europe, including 258 RRMS patients and 51 with SPMS. Median age at cladribine initiation was 44.4 years in RRMS and 56.2 years in SPMS. Median time from diagnosis to cladribine initiation was longer in SPMS (median 19.4 years) than in RRMS (median 6.6 years). Median EDSS at cladribine start was 3 and 6.5 in RRMS and SPMS, respectively. 32.6% and 7.8% of all RRMS and SPMS, respectively, initiated cladribine as the first line therapy. 150 patients switched from an active DMT to cladribine. Of these, patients switched primarily from fingolimod (25.3%) or natalizumab (16.7%). 62 patients with RRMS had >=6 months follow-up after cladribine exposure. Of these, 8 (12.9%) experienced >=1 clinical relapse within the first 6 months on cladribine. Conclusion(s): This study characterizes patients with MS new

A. Background and Goals: It is now well known that patient medical history (or trajectories) is of crucial importance for both prognosis and optimal treatment selection for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients. This longitudinal data is nowadays being collected more systematically and its availability in patient registries opens the way towards precision medicine in MS. However, this information is very challenging to process computationally. By their observational nature, longitudinal patient data are scarcely and irregularly observed (i.e. only few observations are scattered over the whole patient history). Several works have recently attempted to address this issue by substituting full patient history with summary statistics in the modelling (i.e. using metrics such as the maximum and minimum disability score over the patient history as a proxy for the full medical trajectory). This strategy potentially discards relevant prognostic information. In this work, we present a method capable of handling the full information about disease history and its value for individual prognostic modelling. B. Method(s): We propose a novel statistical method relying on state-of-the-art machine learning models (Bayesian Probabilistic Tensor Factorisation, BPTF). Due to its generative nature, this method is able to process the full MS patient trajectories as input to deliver predictions. We infer the tensor decomposition (rank 70) with Gibbs sampling. To illustrate the performances of our approach, we consider the challenging task of predicting patient worsening within 2 years from current visit using 3 years clinical history. Patient worsening was defined with the 2 strata definition of disability progression as in Kalincik et al. (Brain, 2015). Available longitudinal data include Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), magnetic resonance imaging and relapses. Patient static covariates include, among others, age at onset, gender, disease course and first observed EDSS. C. Result(s): W

BACKGROUND: We need high-quality data to assess the determinants for COVID-19 severity in people with MS (PwMS). Several studies have recently emerged but there is great benefit in aligning data collection efforts at a global scale. OBJECTIVES: Our mission is to scale-up COVID-19 data collection efforts and provide the MS community with data-driven insights as soon as possible. METHODS: Numerous stakeholders were brought together. Small dedicated interdisciplinary task forces were created to speed-up the formulation of the study design and work plan. First step was to agree upon a COVID-19 MS core data set. Second, we worked on providing a user-friendly and rapid pipeline to share COVID-19 data at a global scale. RESULTS: The COVID-19 MS core data set was agreed within 48 hours. To date, 23 data collection partners are involved and the first data imports have been performed successfully. Data processing and analysis is an on-going process. CONCLUSIONS: We reached a consensus on a core data set and established data sharing processes with multiple partners to address an urgent need for information to guide clinical practice. First results show that partners are motivated to share data to attain the ultimate joint goal: better understand the effect of COVID-19 in PwMS.

Introduction: A decision to discontinue MS immunotherapies is common in clinical practice - whether in order to switch to another therapy or at an advanced stage of progressive MS without relapses. The evidence regarding individual risk of MS re-activation after treatment discontinuation is limited. Aim(s): To evaluate associations of demographic and clinical patient characteristics with the risk of relapses after discontinuing treatment. Both overall and treatment-specific associations are explored. Method(s): Using the global MSBase registry, we identified all patients who discontinued MS immunotherapy after >=3 months on treatment, with the recorded disability score (EDSS) at the time of discontinuing treatment, and prospectively recorded follow-up of >=6 months. The probability of experiencing a relapse after discontinuing treatment, conditional on patient characteristics, was analysed with Cox proportional hazards model. Differences in these associations among different therapies were studied with interaction terms. Result(s): 24,989 episodes of treatment discontinuation were recorded from 17,871 patients (74% female, mean age at discontinuation 39 years, 88% relapsing-remitting MS, mean MS duration 10 years, median EDSS 2.5). The patient characteristics associated with a lower hazard of MS re-activation were male sex (b=0.87, p< 0.001), older age (b=0.98, p< 0.001), MS duration (b=1.01, p< 0.001), secondary progressive MS (b=0.73, p< 0.001), longer treatment duration (0.95, p< 0.001), greater number of prior treatments (1: b=0.62, p< 0.001; >=2: b=0.39, p< 0.001) and greater number of relapses during the previous year (1: b=1.30, p< 0.001; >=2: b=1.62, p< 0.001). The characteristics associated with a greater risk of MS re-activation were clinically isolated syndrome (b=1.87, p< 0.001) and greater EDSS (4-5.5: b=1.41, p< 0.001; >=6: b=1.17, p=0.001). Therapies used more recently (dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, natalizumab) tended to be associated with a lower h

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) cognitive tests are resource intensive and limited by practice effects that prevent frequent retesting. Brief, reliable and valid monitoring tools are urgently needed to detect subtle, subclinical cognitive changes in people with MS. Cognitive monitoring over time could contribute to a new definition of disease progression, supplementing routine clinical monitoring. METHODS: MSReactor is a web-based battery that measures psychomotor (processing) speed, visual attention and working memory, using simple reaction time tasks. Clinic-based tasks were completed at baseline and 6 monthly with home testing 1-3 monthly. Acceptability, quality of life, depression and anxiety surveys were completed. We studied its correlation with the Symbol Digit Modalities Test, practice effects, test-retest reliability and the discriminative ability of MSReactor. RESULTS: A total of 450 people with MS were recruited over 18 months, with 81% opting to complete home-based testing. Most participants (96%) would be happy (or neutral) to repeat the tasks again and just four reported the tasks made them 'very anxious'. Persistence of home testing was high and practice effects stabilized within three tests. MSReactor tasks correlated with Symbol Digit Modalities Test scores and participants with MS performed slower than healthy controls. CONCLUSION: MSReactor is a scalable and reliable cognitive screening tool that can be used in the clinic and remotely. MSReactor task performance correlated with another highly validated cognitive test, was sensitive to MS and baseline predictors of cognitive performance were identified.

BACKGROUND: Several natural history studies on primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) patients detected a consistent heterogeneity in the rate of disability accumulation. OBJECTIVES: To identify subgroups of PPMS patients with similar longitudinal trajectories of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) over time. METHODS: All PPMS patients collected within the MSBase registry, who had their first EDSS assessment within 5 years from onset, were included in the analysis. Longitudinal EDSS scores were modeled by a latent class mixed model (LCMM), using a nonlinear function of time from onset. LCMM is an advanced statistical approach that models heterogeneity between patients by classifying them into unobserved groups showing similar characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 853 PPMS (51.7% females) from 24 countries with a mean age at onset of 42.4 years (standard deviation (SD): 10.8 years), a median baseline EDSS of 4 (interquartile range (IQR): 2.5-5.5), and 2.4 years of disease duration (SD: 1.5 years) were included. LCMM detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild ( n = 143; 16.8%), moderate ( n = 378; 44.3%), or severe ( n = 332; 38.9%) disability trajectory. The probability of reaching EDSS 6 at 10 years was 0%, 46.4%, and 81.9% respectively. CONCLUSION: Applying an LCMM modeling approach to long-term EDSS data, it is possible to identify groups of PPMS patients with different prognosis.

Introduction: The comparative long term safety profile of disease- modifying drugs (DMD) in Multiple Sclerosis treatment is unknown. MS FIRST, a sub-study of the MSBase registry, is an Australian multi-centre study to implement a user-friendly safety module to track safety outcomes in MS therapy over the long term. Objective(s): MSFIRST is a prospective, longitudinal study, enrolling since 1st January 2012. The primary objective of this study is to track and compare the incidence of safety outcomes in MS patients who either receive DMD or who are on no treatment. Method(s): Rates of adverse events by treatment group including fingolimod (FINGO), natalizumab (NAT), interferon (IFN), glatiramer acetate (GA) or no treatment group were calculated as the number of events per 100 person-years of follow-up. The relative risk of SAE's by treatment was estimated using a longitudinal Poisson regression model offset by DMD exposure time and clustered at the level of the individual patient, adjusting for age, sex and disease duration. Result(s): As per 1st December 2016 there were 3360 patients enrolled contributing to a total of 6033.59 person-years of followup at a mean (SD) of 520.17 days per patient. A total of 1632 adverse events have been observed. A total of 87 immunosuppression related or severe infection events were observed with an incidence rate of 1.44 infections per 100 person-years of follow-up: 89 herpes zoster, 72 non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) and 66 malignancy events observed at an incidence rate of 1.48, 1.19 and 1.09 events per 100 person-years respectively. Compared to a No DMT MS control group, there was a increase in observed infection for NAT (RR 1.52) 0.0011 and FINGO (RR 1.87), p< 0.001. There was an increased risk of NMSC in FINGO (RR 1.75, p< 0.001). All other cancer rates were lower in NAT treated patients (RR 0.42, p< 0.001) and trended lower in FINGO (RR 0.79, p=0.06). Herpes Zoster events were increased only in FINGO treated patients (RR 1.47, p

Background: The objective of this study was to assess the persistence of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients to fingolimod and other available disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) approved for Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) using the MS Base real-world outcomes registry. An initial comparison of relative persistence to fingolimod in a registry (MS Base) and administrative dataset (the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, PBS) is also undertaken. Method(s): All DMT (RRMS-approved) commencements recorded in the Australian component of MS Base (n=1714) between September 2011 and February 2016 were included in the primary analysis. Persistence was defined as the clinician-recorded start and discontinuation date definition used in MS Base. The Kaplan- Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for fingolimod persistence relative to other DMTs. These relative persistence values were then compared with those determined for the PBS dataset using a coefficient of determination. Result(s): Maximum persistence in MS Base was observed for fingolimod (median 24.4 months; IQR 11.2-42.4); significantly higher than natalizumab, the next most persistent treatment (median 18.0 months; IQR 9.5-29.6). The relative persistence of fingolimod compared with alternate DMTs was significantly higher (all p< 0.05) than all other DMTs. HRs for discontinuation ranged from HR=1.22 (95% CI 1.07, 1.39; p=0.003) for natalizumab relative to fingolimod up to a high of HR=3.42 (95% CI 2.70, 4.31; p< 0.001) for intramuscular beta interferon-1a and 1.85 (95% CI 1.52, 2.24; p< 0.001) and 2.08 (95%CI 1.83, 2.37; p< 0.001) for other oral DMTs, teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate, respectively. Furthermore, these relative persistence values were remarkably similar to those observed in the PBS dataset. When the persistence ratios from the PBS administrative dataset and MS Base were compared there was strong agreement between the two datasets w

Background: Dysarthria is highly prevalent in Multiple Sclerosis. The relationship between dysarthria, MS disease severity and other cerebellar manifestations (such as tremor) is poorly understood. Objective: To examine the relationship between objective markers of speech, disease severity and upper limb tremor in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive Multiple Sclerosis. Design Methods: An experienced neurologist determined A) the presence of upper limb tremor, B) the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score and C) the degree of dysarthria (from 0, no disturbance to 4, unintelligible). Through acoustic analysis of speech, we investigated: 1) stability of vocal pitch, in sustained utterance of the vowel /a/; 2) stability of loudness, in the same sustained vowel; 3) diadochokinetic speed, in fast repetition of the meaningless word /pa/ta/ka/ and 4) maximum speed of vocal tract movement (i.e. change in pharynx and mouth cavity shape), measured in the word “always” (from a standard reading passage). After adjustment for multiple comparisons, p<0.0125 was considered for statistical significance. Results: We assessed 24 participants with Multiple Sclerosis and upper limb tremor (47.2±12.3years, 75% female, EDSS=3.7±1.6) and 24 matched patients with Multiple Sclerosis without tremor (51.2±10.7years, 75% female, EDSS=3.6±1.7). Clinical dysarthria scores (median=0, mean=0.375±0.76) correlated with all acoustic variables measured: diadochokinetic speed Spearman’s rho=.561 (p<.001); pitch stability rho=.37 (p=.011); loudness stability rho=.37 (p=.01); and maximum speed of vocal tract movement rho=.363 (p=.012). Diadochokinetic speed strongly correlated with EDSS (rho=.529, p<.001). Speed of vocal tract movement correlated with tremor and differentiated tremor and non-tremor groups (2-tailed t-test p=0.002, rho=.418). Conclusions: In a typically non-to-mildly dysarthric cohort, acoustic speech measurements correlate with disease severity and can differentiate overt

Background: Reduction of brain volume occurs in clinically active disease and correlates with progressive disability in multiple Sclerosis (MS). Although dysarthria is highly prevalent in MS, it only becomes clinically relevant in advanced stages of the disease. The relationship between early sub-clinical markers of dysarthria and overall disease severity is poorly understood. Aim: To examine the relationship between an objective marker of speech performance and validated clinical scores for disease severity in non-dysarthric subjects with relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive MS. Method: An experienced neurologist scored patients according to the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and the Scale for the Assessment and Rating of Ataxia (SARA). Acoustic analysis was used to investigate the diadochokinetic speed in “as fast as possible” repetition of the meaningless word /pa/ta/ka/. Brain images were acquired using 3 Tesla magnetic resonance. Images were automatically segmented using FreeSurfer (5.7) to determine volumes for whole brain (excluding ventricules) and cerebellum. Lesions were automatically segmented by the lesion prediction algorithm as implemented in the Lesion Segmentation Tool version 2.0.15 for SPM (Statistical Parametric Mapping software). Statistical correlations were processed in SPSS (v 23.0) controlling for age. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, a p< 0.01 was considered for statistical significance. Results: We assessed 35 MS patients with normal speech (i.e. SARA speech sub-score 0-1; age=47.7±12years; disease duration=13.2±8.4). Diadochokinetic rate (mean=5.63±0.83 syllables per second) directly correlated with EDSS (Spearman's rho=0.454, 2-tailed p=0.007; median EDSS=3.5, interquartile range=3.5) and SARA (rho=0.515, p=0.002; SARA median=9, interquartile range 11.975), but not with whole brain volume (p=0.022), lesion load (p=0.032) or cerebellar volume (p=0.037). Conclusion: Changes in acoustic markers can be detected bef

BACKGROUND: Characteristics at clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) examination assist in identification of patient at highest risk of early second attack and could benefit the most from early disease-modifying drugs (DMDs). OBJECTIVE: To examine determinants of second attack and validate a prognostic nomogram for individualised risk assessment of clinical conversion. METHODS: Patients with CIS were prospectively followed up in the MSBase Incident Study. Predictors of clinical conversion were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Prognostic nomograms were derived to calculate conversion probability and validated using concordance indices. RESULTS: A total of 3296 patients from 50 clinics in 22 countries were followed up for a median (inter-quartile range (IQR)) of 1.92 years (0.90, 3.71). In all, 1953 (59.3%) patients recorded a second attack. Higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline, first symptom location, oligoclonal bands and various brain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics were all predictors of conversion. Conversely, older age and DMD exposure post-CIS were associated with reduced rates. Prognostic nomograms demonstrated high concordance between estimated and observed conversion probabilities. CONCLUSION: This multinational study shows that age at CIS onset, DMD exposure, EDSS, multiple brain and spinal MRI criteria and oligoclonal bands are associated with shorter time to relapse. Nomogram assessment may be useful in clinical practice for estimating future clinical conversion.

Background: Dysarthria is highly prevalent in Multiple Sclerosis (MS). The relationship between dysarthria, MS disease severity and other cerebellar manifestations (such as tremor) is poorly understood. Aim: To examine the relationship between objective markers of speech, disease severity and upper limb tremor in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive MS. Method: An experienced neurologist determined A) the presence of upper limb tremor, B) the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score and C) the degree of dysarthria (from 0, no disturbance to 4, unintelligible). We used acoustic analysis to investigate 4 speech domains: 1) stability of vocal pitch, in sustained utterance of the vowel /a/; 2) stability of loudness, in the same sustained vowel; 3) diadochokinetic speed, in fast repetition of the meaningless word /pa/ta/ka/ and 4) maximum speed of vocal tract movement (i.e. change in pharynx and mouth cavity shape), measured through change in the second formant frequency in the word “always”, from reading of the “Grandfather Passage”. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, a p< 0.0125 was considered for statistical significance. Results: We assessed 24 MS patients with upper limb tremor (47.2±12.3years, 75% female, EDSS=3.7±1.6) and 24 matched patients without tremor (51.2±10.7years, 75% female, EDSS=3.6±1.7). Clinical dysarthria (median=0, mean=0.375±0.76) moderately correlated with EDSS scores (Spearman's rho =.586, p< .001) and with syllable repetition rates (/pa/ta/ka/ rho=.561, p< .001), marginally correlated with speed of tract movement (rho=.363, p=.012), pitch stability (rho=.37, p=.011), loudness stability (rho=.37, p=.01) but not with upper limb tremor presence (p=.039). Only /pa/ta/ka/ rate correlated with EDSS (rho=.529, p< .001) and speed of tract movement differentiated tremor and non-tremor groups (2-tailed t-test p=0.002, rho=.418). Conclusion: Acoustic speech measurements correlate with MS disease severity and can differentiate overt ce

Introduction: MSFIRST, a sub-study of the MSBase registry, is an Australian multi-centre study to implement a user-friendly safety module to track incidence and characteristics of safety outcomes in MS patients. The comparative long term safety profile of disease-modifying drugs (DMD) in MS treatment is unknown and incidence and trends over time in serious adverse events (SAEs) are less well reported in real world practice. Objective(s): MSFIRST is a prospective, longitudinal study, enrolling since 1 January 2012. The primary objective of this study is to track and compare the incidence of safety outcomes in MS patients who either receive DMD or no treatment. Method(s): Rates of SAE's by treatment group including fingolimod (FTY), natalizumab (NAT) and combined group of interferon and glatiramer acetate (IFN/GA) were calculated as no. of events per 100 person-years of follow-up. The relative risk of SAE by treatment group was estimated using a longitudinal Poisson regression model offset by DMD exposure time and adjusted for age, sex and disease duration. Result(s): At 6 April 2016 there were 3115 patients enrolled contributing 4590.8 person-years of follow-up at a mean (SD) of 17.4 months (14.2) per patient. 1303 adverse events have been observed. A total of 79 immunosuppression related or severe infection events, 75 herpes zoster, 56 non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) and 53 malignancy events observed at an incidence rate of 0.27, 0.33, 0.31 and 0.44 events per 100 person-years respectively. Natalizumab (NAT) was associated with 3.14 times the risk of infections (aRR 3.14; 95% CI 1.04, 9.46) relative to IFN/GA, whilst there was no difference between FTY and IFN/GA (aRR 2.06; 95% CI 0.72, 5.88). There was no difference in the risk of herpes zoster between FTY (aRR 1.00; 95% CI 0.44, 2.29) or NAT (aRR 1.37; 95% CI 0.54, 3.49) relative to IFN/GA group. Similarly, there was no difference in the risk of NMSC between IFN/GA and either FTY (aRR 0.79; 95% CI 0.28, 2.24) or N

Type: Poster Abstract Category: Clinical aspects of MS - Clinical assessment tools Background: Tremor in MS (MST) is difficult to treat and the development of new interventions is limited by the absence of universal measuring systems. At present, therapeutic outcomes are measured by a variety of clinical rating scales that are subjective and lack sufficient sensitivity. With increasing use of interventional treatments such as Botulinum toxin injections or Deep Brain Stimulation for MST, it has become critical to develop precise measurement instruments. Objective: To clinically validate the TREMBAL software in MST. Methods: TREMBAL (Bionics Institute, Melbourne, Australia) utilises an electromagnetic motion tracker (Ascension, Vermont, US) to acquire absolute displacements and rotations of a tremulous body part. Tremor was recorded bilaterally from four locations (second phalanx of the middle finger, wrist dorsum, forearm and upper arm) in five positions (hands resting on lap, arms outstretched in front, finger-nose, batwing static and batwing action). Tremor exercises were video recorded (GoPro Hero3, GoPro Inc., San Mateo, California) and rated by two experts using the 5-point Unified Tremor Rating Assessment (UTRA) scale where 0=no tremor and 4=severe. TREMBAL tremor displacements (measured in units of millimetres) were averaged and log transformed to match the distribution of clinical ratings. Data were pooled across exercises. Congruence between TREMBAL measures and mean clinical ratings was explored using regression analysis and Pearson´s correlation. Results: We assessed ten MST patients over 6 months and rated 200 videos. The median pooled UTRA score was 0.5 (interquartile range 0, 1.5). The average TREMBAL recorded tremor displacement was 1.65 mm (standard deviation 2.1). A strong correlation between UTRA scores and log transformed TREMBAL displacement was found, r = 0.749, p< 0.001. Conclusions: TREMBAL measurements are highly accurate when compared to clin