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This paper investigates the nature of the associations and the potential existence of both short-run and long-run relationships between the stock market indices of Morocco, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and the United States from January 2014 to January 2024. The purpose of analyzing dynamic interconnections and contagion effects is to determine how the stock markets of these countries influence and relate to each other. The study employs a time series Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach, incorporating stationarity, cointegration, and Granger causality tests. Additionally, the Impulse Response Function (IRF) is used to analyze the response of variables to shocks. The bivariate Granger causality test reveals significant causal influences: from France, Germany, and the USA to Morocco; from the USA to the DAX and France; and from the UK to Germany. After establishing the Granger causal relationships, long-run and short-run relationships are further examined. Using the Johansen multivariate cointegration approach, the study suggests a long-term equilibrium among the six stock market indices over time. The short-run adjustments are analyzed using the VECM, which reveals that adjustments in the CAC 40, DAX, and MASI tend to correct deviations from equilibrium, indicating a tendency to move towards equilibrium. For the FTSE 100, S&P 500, and SSEC, the VECM captures the speed and direction of adjustments as these indices respond to short-term disruptions and work towards restoring equilibrium. The findings underscore the importance of closely connected global stock markets, which means that international regulators must coordinate their efforts to reduce the risks of contagion. Policymakers should prioritize improving financial stability through integrated frameworks considering short-term disruptions and long-term equilibrium trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to evaluate the human capital on economic growth impact in Romania. Variables have been selected according to an endogenous growth model basing on including the human capital in the Cobb-Douglas production function (Lucas, 1988). As all over usual, here gross domestic product (GDP) will be the endogenous of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, as physical capital stock), employment (as labour), life expectancy and secondary enrolment rate(as proxies for human capital). We also use expenditure in research and development (R&D) sector (as its percentage in GDP), as control variable. Once our model developed, variables are found as integrated of order one (1) and co-integrated, here allowing a vector error correction model (VECM) for estimation. This will be a system of six equations covering a 25 years (1995-2019) interval for Romania. A long-term relation comes out of our empirical findings, as similarly to Wang (2016), so the GDP growth sees itself determined by: secondary school enrolment, life expectancy(i.e. for human capital), R&D expenditure and labour. Short run causalities have not been found significant for this model

Inflation and financial development are among the factors that influence economic growth and the interaction between them is a major issue in developing countries. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of inflation on financial development indicators in Iran using seasonal data over 2000-2015. To achieve the research objectives, time series data were collected from World Bank and seasonal inflation rate, with 5 financial development indicators were used to measure the research variables. Then I applied Johansen Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to estimate the proposed model. The results show that inflation has a negatively significant effect on financial depth and also positively significant effect on the ratio of total deposits in banking system to nominal GDP in Iran during the observation period. Also the existence of an equilibrium relationship between inflation and other 3 indicators of Iran`s financial development used in this study was rejected.

Regarding the link between economic growth and it’s public outcomes, this paper studies the effect of economic growth on life expectancy in Iran during 1966-2013. To achieve the research objectives, annually data collected from World Bank Database and I used the life expectancy at birth and annually GDP growth rate to measure the research variables. Then I applied Vector Error Correction Model to estimate the proposed model. The results on this study show that economic growth has a positively significant effect on life expectancy in Iran during the observation period.

Milton Friedman's permanent income hypothesis suggests that frictionless open economies with depletable natural resources should increase its external reserves with most of the resource windfalls. Nigeria like any other country endowed with natural resources such as crude oil and liquefied natural gas are often faced by the Dutch disease. The evolution of the Nigeria's foreign exchange market has been influenced by the changing pattern of international trade, institutional changes in the economy and structural shifts in production. The increased export of crude oil followed by the sharp fall in its prices, and enhanced official foreign exchange receipts should give the government a wakeup call. This study focuses on macroeconomic behavior in the presence of crude oil price volatility. The dataset covered the period of 1970-2014, using OLS model. Given the high degree of dependency and contribution crude oil has on Nigeria's revenue generation, this analysis reveals crude oil price to be having a positive impact on Nigeria's economic wellbeing. A 1% increase in its price has an impact of 0.67% increase in GDP. Adding-up all other analyzed variable, crude oil still stand as the mean influential factor to the Nigerian economic development. Therefore, it is of optimum important to quickly diversify the economy, to prevent the repercussion of crude oil price shock, and also heavily invest in the development of infrastructural facilities to create the enabling environment for a non-oil economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]