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Start Over Author "Zhang Chuancheng" Publisher scientific research publishing, inc.
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2. Day-Ahead Probabilistic Load Flow Analysis Considering Wind Power Forecast Error Correlation

Author

Jingyang Zhou, Chengwei Zhai, Ding Qiang, Dan Xu, Zhang Chuancheng, Sai Dai, and Zhiqiang Luo

Subjects
Engineering, Wind power, business.industry, 020209 energy, Cumulative distribution function, Probabilistic logic, Probability density function, 02 engineering and technology, Wind speed, Reliability engineering, Electric power transmission, Control theory, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Power-flow study, Time series, business
Abstract

Short-term power flow analysis has a significant influence on day-ahead generation schedule. This paper proposes a time series model and prediction error distribution model of wind power output. With the consideration of wind speed and wind power output forecast error’s correlation, the probabilistic distributions of transmission line flows during tomorrow’s 96 time intervals are obtained using cumulants combined Gram-Charlier expansion method. The probability density function and cumulative distribution function of transmission lines on each time interval could provide scheduling planners with more accurate and comprehensive information. Simulation in IEEE 39-bus system demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.

Published
2017

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