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Background: Bacterial infection is one of the most frequent complications in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which leads to high mortality. However, a specific prognostic model for ACLF patients with bacterial infection has not been well established., Aim: To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting 30-day mortality of hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) patients with bacterial infection., Methods: A total of 513 ACLF patients for HBV reactivation were enrolled in the prospective cohort, and 224 patients with bacterial infection were for derivation. Independent predictors were identified using multivariate logistic model and then assembled into a nomogram to predict 30-day mortality. The performance of the nomogram was assessed based on its calibration, discrimination and clinical utility in a retrospective cohort of 192 HBV-ACLF patients with bacterial infection., Results: Age, total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase, international normalized ratio and soluble interleukin-2 receptor were shown to be independent risk factors for 30-day mortality of HBV-ACLF patients with bacterial infection and the nomogram was constructed. The nomogram showed a good calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.883. Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort also showed a good calibration and discrimination, with the AUC of 0.852. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram., Conclusion: The nomogram was established and validated for predicting 30-day mortality of HBV-ACLF patients with bacterial infection, which may facilitate optimal therapeutic strategies to improve the prognosis of these patients., (© 2021. Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver.)

Background and Aims: Artificial liver support systems (ALSS) have been shown to significantly reduce mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the characteristics of patients who would benefit most from ALSS treatment are poorly understood. This study aimed to delineate the indicators for ALSS and evaluate the effectiveness of plasma perfusion combined with plasma exchange (PP + PE) in patients with hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF)., Methods: A total of 898 patients with HBV-ACLF in a single center were enrolled retrospectively. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used in case-paired analysis. Hepatic or extra-hepatic organ failures were defined by Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) criteria. Complications included ascites, infection, hepatopulmonary syndrome, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy and upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Numbers of organ failures or complications were used for risk stratification., Results: Among all patients, 418 patients received standard medical therapy (SMT) and 480 received PP + PE plus SMT. After one-to-one paired PSM within the two groups without risk stratification, 293 pairs were enrolled. The PP + PE group displayed significantly lower mortality risk in both 28- and 90-day observation durations. When stratified, patients with two or more organ failures or complications from the PP + PE group showed greater decrease in mortality risk. Moreover, PP + PE treatment significantly increased the resolution of organ failures and complications and ameliorated the development of new organ failures and complications., Conclusions: PP + PE treatment significantly reversed organ failures and ameliorated the development of new organ failures and complications, thus reducing mortality risk of patients with HBV-ACLF.

Background and Aim: Cirrhosis is a controversial determinant of mortality in HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). The present study aimed to explore the effects of cirrhosis and the associated risk factors, especially its complications, on the outcome of HBV-ACLF., Methods: A prospective-retrospective cohort of 985 patients was identified from the APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database and the Chinese Study Group. Complications of ACLF (ascites, infection, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding) as well as cirrhosis and the current main prognostic models were measured for their predictive ability for 28- or 90-day mortality., Results: A total of 709 patients with HBV-ACLF as defined by the AARC criteria were enrolled. Among these HBV-ACLF patients, the cirrhotic group showed significantly higher mortality and complications than the non-cirrhotic group. A total of 36.1% and 40.1% of patients met the European Association for the Study of Liver (EASL)-Chronic Liver Failure consortium (CLIF-C) criteria in the non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic groups, respectively; these patients had significantly higher rates of mortality and complications than those who did not satisfy the CLIF-C criteria. Furthermore, among patients who did not meet the CLIF-C criteria, the cirrhotic group exhibited higher mortality and complication rates than the non-cirrhotic group, without significant differences in organ failure. The Tongji prognostic predictor model score (TPPMs), which set the number of complications as one of the determinants, showed comparable or superior ability to the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-ACLF score (COSSH-ACLFs), APASL-ACLF Research Consortium score (AARC-ACLFs), CLIF-C organ failure score (CLIF-C OFs), CLIF-C-ACLF score (CLIF-C-ACLFs), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (MELDs) and MELD-sodium score (MELD-Nas) in HBV-ACLF patients, especially in cirrhotic HBV--ACLF patients. Patients with two (OR 4.70, 1.88) or three (OR 8.27, 2.65) complications had a significantly higher risk of 28- or 90-day mortality, respectively., Conclusion: The presence of complications is a major risk factor for mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. TPPM possesses high predictive ability in HBV-ACLF patients, especially in cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients.