1. The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation
- Author
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Erika Coppola, Lidija Srnec, David Leutwyler, Volker Wulfmeyer, Thomas Frisius, Klaus Keuler, Josipa Milovac, Stefan Sobolowski, Paola Mercogliano, Merja Tölle, Pedro M. M. Soares, Paolo Stocchi, Heimo Truhetz, Torge Lorenz, Jesus Vergara-Temprado, Klaus Goergen, Alvaro Lavin-Gullon, Jesús Fernández, Antoinette Alias, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Geert Lenderink, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Øivind Hodnebrog, Ivonne Anders, Jan Erik Haugen, Filippo Giorgi, Lluis Fita, Goran Gašparac, Danijel Belušić, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Marianna Adinolfi, Cécile Caillaud, Rita M. Cardoso, Hylke de Vries, Armelle Reca Remedio, Sophie Bastin, Steven Chan, Stergios Kartsios, Nikolina Ban, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Eleni Katragkou, Douglas Maraun, Birthe Marie Rødssæteren Steensen, Bodo Ahrens, Mario Raffa, Mar Janne Zander, Christoph Schär, Emanuela Pichelli, Department of Atmospheric and Cryosphere Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Leopold Franzens Universität Innsbruck - University of Innsbruck, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), REgional Model and geo-Hydrological Impacts (REMHI), Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences [Frankfurt/Main] (IAU), Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum [Hamburg] (DKRZ), SPACE - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Newcastle University [Newcastle], Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Santander Meteorology Group, Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria [Santander]-Universidad de Cantabria [Santander], Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Croatia Control Ltd., Institute of Bio- and Geosciences [Jülich] (IBG), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems (HPSC TerrSys), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg] (BTU), Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), Universidad de Cantabria [Santander]-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), University of Graz, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), CNR Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Center for Environmental Systems Research [Kassel] (CESR), Universität Kassel [Kassel], Institute of Physics and Meteorology [Stuttgart] (IPM), University of Hohenheim, Department of Environmental Sciences [Wageningen], Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Universidad de Cantabria, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET)-Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA), Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, University of Innsbruck, European Commission, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Karl-Franzens-Universität [Graz, Autriche]
- Subjects
Convection ,Kilometer-scale resolution ,Atmospheric Science ,Climate Research ,Scale (ratio) ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,0207 environmental engineering ,Climate change ,02 engineering and technology ,Precipitation ,Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management ,01 natural sciences ,Klimatforskning ,Kilometer ,ddc:550 ,020701 environmental engineering ,health care economics and organizations ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,regional climate models ,multi-model ensemble ,high-resolution ,precipitation ,convection ,WIMEK ,Multi-model ensemble simulations ,Resolution (electron density) ,Regional climate models ,Summer season ,Earth sciences ,13. Climate action ,[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Scale (map) ,Intensity (heat transfer) ,Hydrologie en Kwantitatief Waterbeheer - Abstract
N. Ban et al., Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40% at 12 km to ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales., Open access funding provided by University of Innsbruck and Medical University of Innsbruck., The ETH team, MZ, CNRM IPSL, ICTP, SMHI, Met-Office, DMI, CMCC, HZG, KNMI acknowledge funding from the HORIZON 2020 EUCP (European Climate Prediction System) project (https://www.eucp-project.eu, grant agreement No. 776613). AL-G acknowledges support by the Spanish government through grant BES-2016-078158 and MINECO/FEDER co-funded project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R).
- Published
- 2021
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