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Using delay differential equations to study mathematical models of Parkinson's disease and Huntington's disease is important to show how important it is for synchronization between basal ganglia loops to work together. We used the delay circuit RLC (resistor, inductor, capacitor) model to show how the direct pathway and the indirect pathway in the basal ganglia excite and inhibit the motor cortex, respectively. A term has been added to the mathematical model without time delay in the case of the hyperdirect pathway. It is proposed to add a non-linear term to adjust the synchronization. We studied Hopf bifurcation conditions for the proposed models. The desynchronization of response times between the direct pathway and the indirect pathway leads to different symptoms of Parkinson's disease. Tremor appears when the response time in the indirect pathway increases at rest. The simulation confirmed that tremor occurs and the motor cortex is in an inhibited state. The direct pathway can increase the time delay in the dopaminergic pathway, which significantly increases the activity of the motor cortex. The hyperdirect pathway regulates the activity of the motor cortex. The simulation showed bradykinesia occurs when we switch from one movement to another that is less exciting for the motor cortex. A decrease of GABA in the striatum or delayed excitation of the substantia nigra from the subthalamus may be a major cause of Parkinson's disease. An increase in the response time delay in one of the pathways results in the chaotic movement characteristic of Huntington's disease., (© 2024. Prof. Dr. Jan van der Hoeven stichting voor theoretische biologie.)

Mine water surge is one of the main safety risks in coal mines. This research offers a novel mine water source identification model (BO-CatBoost) to successfully avoid and control mine sudden water catastrophes by properly identifying the sources of mine water. First, the classification model is trained and built using the Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) algorithm. The Gaussian process Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm is used to optimize parameters, and the optimal parameter combination is integrated into the CatBoost algorithm to build the BO-CatBoost mine water source identification model, which further improves the accuracy of mine water source identification. The model was also applied to the Pingdingshan mine to verify the practicality of the model. Then, 29 groups of unknown water sources in Pingdingshan were selected as validation samples for the model and compared with the conventional CatBoost, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (Xgboost) models. The comparison results demonstrate that the accuracy of LightGBM, Xgboost, CatBoost, and BO-CatBoost models can reach 69%, 79.3%, 79.3%, and 100% respectively, and the RMSE is 0.947, 0.643, 0.719, and 0.0 respectively. The comprehensive analysis shows that, when it comes to mine water source detection, the BO-CatBoost model performs noticeably better than other models in terms of discriminative accuracy and generalization capacity. Lastly, the multi-output prediction and decision-making process of the BO-CatBoost water source identification model is visualized by the interpretability analysis performed with the SHAP approach. The research demonstrates that the BO-CatBoost model can more precisely and impartially identify mine water sources, offering fresh concepts for mine water source detection., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Purpose: This study explored models of monoexponential diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI), stretched exponential (SEM), fractional-order calculus (FROC), and continuous-time random-walk (CTRW) as diagnostic tools for assessing pathological prognostic factors in patients with resectable rectal cancer (RRC)., Methods: RRC patients who underwent radical surgery were included. The apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), the mean kurtosis (MK) and mean diffusion (MD) from the DKI model, the distributed diffusion coefficient (DDC) and α from the SEM model, D, β and u from the FROC model, and D, α and β from the CTRW model were assessed., Results: There were a total of 181 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of CTRW-α for predicting histology type was significantly higher than that of FROC-u (0.780 vs. 0.671, p = 0.043). The AUC of CTRW-α for predicting pT stage was significantly higher than that of FROC-u and ADC (0.786 vs.0.683, p = 0.043; 0.786 vs. 0.682, p = 0.030), the difference in predictive efficacy of FROC-u between ADC and MK was not statistically significant [0.683 vs. 0.682, p = 0.981; 0.683 vs. 0.703, p = 0.720]; the difference between the predictive efficacy of MK and ADC was not statistically significant (p = 0.696). The AUC of CTRW (α + β) (0.781) was significantly higher than that of FROC-u (0.781 vs. 0.625, p = 0.003) in predicting pN stage but not significantly different from that of MK (p = 0.108)., Conclusion: The CTRW and DKI models may serve as imaging biomarkers to predict pathological prognostic factors in RRC patients before surgery., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

Salt marshes act as natural barriers that reduce wave energy during storm events and help protect coastal communities located in low-lying areas. This ecosystem can be an important asset for climate adaptation due to its particular capability of vertically accrete to adjust to long-term changes in water levels. Therefore, understanding marsh protection benefits thresholds in the face of sea-level rise (SLR) is important for planning future climate adaptation. In this context, the main goal of this manuscript is to examine how the storm protection benefits provided by salt marshes might evolve under SLR projections with different probability levels and emission pathways. In this study, a modeling framework that employs marsh migration predictions from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) as parameterization into a hydrodynamic and wave model (ADCIRC + SWAN) was utilized to explicitly represent wave attenuation by vegetation under storm surge conditions. SLAMM predictions indicate that the SLR scenario, a combination of probability level and emission pathways, plays a substantial role in determining future marsh migration or marsh area loss. For example, results based on the 50% probability, stabilized emissions scenario show an increase of 45% in the marsh area on Maryland's Lower Eastern Shore by 2100, whereas Dorchester County alone could experience a 75% reduction in total salt marsh areas by 2100 under the 1% probability, growing emissions scenario. ADCIRC + SWAN results using SLAMM land cover and elevation outputs indicate that distinct temporal thresholds emerge where marsh extent sharply decreases and wave heights increase, especially after 2050, and exacerbates further after 2080. These findings can be utilized for guiding environmental policies and to aid informed decisions and actions in response to SLR-driven environmental changes., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Air pollution has a significant global impact on natural resources and public health. Accurate prediction of air pollution is crucial for effective prevention and control measures. However, due to regional variations, different cities may have varying primary pollutants, posing new challenges for accurate prediction. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FP-RF, which integrates clustering algorithms to categorize multiple cities according to their air quality index values. Subsequently, we apply functional principal component analysis to extract the primary components of air pollution within each cluster. Furthermore, an enhanced random forest algorithm is utilized to predict air quality grades for each city. We conduct experimental evaluations using authentic historical data from Anhui Province spanning from 2018 to 2023. The results unequivocally establish the effectiveness of our model, with an average accuracy rate of 98.6% in forecasting six pollution grades and 96.04% accuracy in predicting 16 prefecture-level cities, surpassing performance compared to other baseline models., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Even though many studies have been thus far devoted to landscape services (LS) or vulnerability assessment (VA) alone, the relationship between these two concepts has been less investigated. The current study attempts to model the spatial relationship between LS and VA in the Tarhan area (west of Iran). For this purpose, a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), remote sensing (RS), and geographic information system (GIS) techniques are applied to assess vulnerability. Variogram models and geostatistical simulations are used for mapping and evaluating landscape services. Moreover, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) is operated to predict the relationship between LS and VA. The results indicate that landform and socioeconomic variables are also two main factors shaping variations in VA. As well, the levels of services provided in the possible landscape are affected by the vulnerability. The assessment accordingly establishes that natural and cultural values have significant effects on services, in terms of their spatial distribution and nature. Exploring the relationship between LS and VA correspondingly depicts that VA has a direct influence on the capacity and entity of LS provision (adjusted R 2  = 0.67). The outcomes of the study provide a foundation for nature management and conservation, although it is less able to analyze the trade-off between ecosystem degradation and future development trends. The nexus of LS and future ecological processes in an integrated system can be thus the subject of further research., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Watershed ecosystems play a pivotal role in maintaining the global carbon cycle and reducing global warming by serving as vital carbon reservoirs for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, we based on the "quantity-mechanism-scenario" frameworks, integrate the MCE-CA-Markov and InVEST models to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of carbon stocks in mid- to high-latitude alpine watersheds in China under historical and future climate scenarios. Additionally, the study employs the Geographic Detector model to explore the driving mechanisms influencing the carbon storage capacity of watershed ecosystems. The results showed that the carbon stock of the watershed increased by about 15.9 Tg from 1980 to 2020. Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC), Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) had the strongest explanatory power for carbon stocks. Under different climate scenarios, it was found that the SSP2-4.5 scenario had a significant rise in carbon stock from 2020 to 2050, roughly 24.1 Tg. This increase was primarily observed in the southeastern region of the watersheds, with forest and grassland effectively protected. Conversely, according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the carbon stock would decrease by about 50.53 Tg with the expansion of cultivated and construction land in the watershed's southwest part. Therefore, given the vulnerability of mid- to high-latitude mountain watersheds, global warming trends continue to pose a greater threat to carbon sequestration in watersheds. Our findings carry important implications for tackling potential ecological threats in mid- to high-latitude watersheds in the Northern Hemisphere and assisting policymakers in creating carbon sequestration plans, as well as for reducing climate change., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Soil erosion and sediment yield is a global problem that increasingly contributes to soil degradation. Although erosion analysis requires the availability of erosion and sedimentation data, the lack of sediment monitoring stations and the resulting limitations in collecting sediment measurements have necessitated the use of experimental models in many areas. The present study aimed to compare Factorial Scoring Model (FSM) and Modified Pacific South-West Inter-Agency Committee (MPSIAC) model for estimating erosion in the Mazdaran Basin (Firoozkuh, Iran). For this purpose, the required maps were prepared for both models, and the sediment rate was estimated using the two models to compare their efficiency using the corresponding maximum error (ME) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values. The results showed that considering sediment based on the FSM model, the studied catchment consisted of regions with a high and very high sediment yield, while the MPSIAC model identified regions with low, medium, and high sediment yield. With an R 2 value of 0.62 and an ME value of 2.24, the MPSIAC model provided more accurate estimates of the sediment yield in the studied area. Using the MPSIAC model, sediment yield was 6687.86 tons per year or the equivalent of 2.64 tons/ha per year., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Background: Various factors have been found responsible for the increment in ecological footprint resulting difficulties in maintaining environmental sustainability. This has been noticed through a modeling perspective. Identifying the factors affecting Ecological Footprint helps policymakers to formulate policies regarding sustainability. However, studies conducted based upon systematic reviews on Ecological Footprint through modeling are still limited., Objective: This study intends to identify influential factors associated with ecological footprint through a systematic review., Methods: ProQuest, Science Direct, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were used to search literature systematically. Particular keywords and Boolean operators were applied to dig out relevant studies for the review. Peer-reviewed research articles published in the English language till September 13, 2023, were incorporated for the analysis. Following the guidelines of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA), 1011 articles were identified from four different databases and only 37 research papers were eligible for this study. These articles were assessed and relevant information was extracted and then amalgamated into the systematic review., Results: Gross domestic product, urbanization, energy consumption, renewable energy, non-renewable energy, natural resources, bio-capacity, human capital, foreign direct investment, trade openness, and financial development were observed as key factors of the ecological footprint., Conclusion: Factors known to influence ecological footprint need to be addressed properly for environmental sustainability including widespread use of renewable energy., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Odor pollution is the biggest source of complaints from citizens concerning environmental issues after noise. Often, the need for corrective actions is evaluated through simulations performed with atmospheric dispersion models. To save resources, air pollution control institutions perform a first-level odor impact assessment, for screening purposes. This is often based on Gaussian dispersion models (GDM), which does not need high computational power. However, their outputs tend to be conservative regarding the analyzed situation, rather than representative of the real in-site conditions. Hence, regulations and guidelines adopted at an institutional level for authorization/control purposes are based on Lagrangian particle dispersion models (LPDM). These models grant a more accurate simulation of the pollutants' dispersion even if they are more demanding regarding both technical skills and computing power. The present study aims to increase the accuracy of screening odor impact assessment by identifying the correlation function of the outputs derived from the two simulation models. The case study is placed in northern Italy, where a single-point source, with various stack heights, was considered. The case study is placed in northern Italy, where a single-point source, with various stack heights, was considered. The obtained correlation functions allow the practitioner to have a more accurate first-level odor impact assessment, to save time for training, and to reduce the site-specific meteorological data before proceeding with the simulation. The identified functions could allow institutions to estimate the results that would have been forecasted with the application of the more complex LPDM, applying, however, the much simpler GDM. This solution grants an accurate tool which can be used to address citizens' concerns while saving workforce and technical resources. Limitations are related to the specificity of the method regarding type sources, orography, and meteorological conditions. Comparison with other screening tools is also presented and discussed., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Anaerobic digestion (AD) has the great potential to treat organic waste and achieve remarkable results effectively. However, it is very tough to establish an accurate mechanistic model for this process. Data-driven modeling technology has opened a new door to solving this problem. While when the sample set is small, traditional data-driven modeling methods are often powerless. In this paper, an effective method is proposed for data-driven high-precision modeling in small sample scenarios. A time series generative adversarial network (TimeGAN) is first utilized to augment the original high-quality small-sample data collected during the AD methane production. A novel hybrid kernel extreme learning machine (HKELM) is then designed to form a better structure of the data-driven model, whose regularization coefficient C 0 is optimized by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA). Finally, this semi-finished model (SSA-HKELM) is trained by the augmented data to form the final mathematical model (TimeGAN-SSA-HKELM) for the AD methane generation process. Comparative experiments of the methane daily production prediction error have verified the effectiveness of the method, which can be extended to other similar small sample data-driven modeling scenarios., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Hydrological simulation in karstic areas is a hard task due to the intrinsic intricacy of these environments and the common lack of data related to their geometry. Hydrological dynamics of karstic sites in Mediterranean semiarid regions are difficult to be modelled mathematically owing to the existence of short wet episodes and long dry periods. In this paper, the suitability of an open-source SWAT method was checked to estimate the comportment of a karstic catchment in a Mediterranean semiarid domain (southeast of Spain), which wet and dry periods were evaluated using box-whisker plots and self-developed wavelet test. A novel expression of the Nash-Sutcliffe index for arid areas (ANSE) was considered through the calibration and validation of SWAT. Both steps were completed with 20- and 10-year discharge records of stream (1996-2015 to calibrate the model as this period depicts minimum gaps and 1985-1995 to validate it). Further, SWAT assessments were made with records of groundwater discharge and relating SWAT outputs with the SIMPA method, the Spain's national hydrological tool. These methods, along with recurrent neural network algorithms, were utilised to examine current and predicted water resources available to supply urban demands considering also groundwater abstractions from aquifers and the related exploitation index. According to the results, SWAT achieved a "very good" statistical performance (with ANSE of 0.96 and 0.78 in calibration and validation). Spatial distributions of the main hydrological processes, as surface runoff, evapotranspiration and aquifer recharge, were studied with SWAT and SIMPA obtaining similar results over the period with registers (1980-2016). During this period, the decreasing trend of rainfalls, characterised by short wet periods and long dry periods, has generated a progressive reduction of groundwater recharge. According to algorithms prediction (until 2050), this declining trend will continue reducing groundwater available to meet urban demands and increasing the exploitation index of aquifers. These results offer valuable information to authorities for assessing water accessibility and to provide water demands in karstic areas., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The groundwater salinization process complexity and the lack of data on its controlling factors are the main challenges for accurate predictions and mapping of aquifer salinity. For this purpose, effective machine learning (ML) methodologies are employed for effective modeling and mapping of groundwater salinity (GWS) in the Mio-Pliocene aquifer in the Sidi Okba region, Algeria, based on limited dataset of electrical conductivity (EC) measurements and readily available digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives. The dataset was randomly split into training (70%) and testing (30%) sets, and three wrapper selection methods, recursive feature elimination (RFE), forward feature selection (FFS), and backward feature selection (BFS) are applied to train the data. The resulting combinations are used as inputs for five ML models, namely random forest (RF), hybrid neuro-fuzzy inference system (HyFIS), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), cubist regression model (CRM), and support vector machine (SVM). The best-performing model is identified and applied to predict and map GWS across the entire study area. It is highlighted that the applied methods yield input variation combinations as critical factors that are often overlocked by many researchers, which substantially impacts the models' accuracy. Among different alternatives the RF model emerged as the most effective for predicting and mapping GWS in the study area, which led to the high performance in both the training (RMSE = 1.016, R = 0.854, and MAE = 0.759) and testing (RMSE = 1.069, R = 0.831, and MAE = 0.921) phases. The generated digital map highlighted the alarming situation regarding excessive GWS levels in the study area, particularly in zones of low elevations and far from the Foum Elgherza dam and Elbiraz wadi. Overall, this study represents a significant advancement over previous approaches, offering enhanced predictive performance for GWS with the minimum number of input variables., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

To keep up with the growth of human population and to circumvent deleterious effects of global climate change, it is essential to enhance crop yield to achieve higher production. Here we review mathematical models of oxygenic photosynthesis that are extensively used, and discuss in depth a subset that accounts for diverse approaches providing solutions to our objective. These include models (1) to study different ways to enhance photosynthesis, such as fine-tuning antenna size, photoprotection and electron transport; (2) to bioengineer carbon metabolism; and (3) to evaluate the interactions between the process of photosynthesis and the seasonal crop dynamics, or those that have included statistical whole-genome prediction methods to quantify the impact of photosynthesis traits on the improvement of crop yield. We conclude by emphasizing that the results obtained in these studies clearly demonstrate that mathematical modelling is a key tool to examine different approaches to improve photosynthesis for better productivity, while effective multiscale crop models, especially those that also include remote sensing data, are indispensable to verify different strategies to obtain maximized crop yields., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.)

Background: Medication reconciliation (MedRec) in hospitals is an important tool to enhance the continuity of care, but completing MedRec is challenging., Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate whether queueing theory could be used to compare various interventions to optimise the MedRec process to ultimately reduce the number of patients discharged prior to MedRec being completed. Queueing theory, the mathematical study of waiting lines or queues, has not been previously applied in hospital pharmacies but enables comparisons without interfering with the baseline workflow., Method: Possible interventions to enhance the MedRec process (replacing in-person conversations with telephone conversations, reallocating pharmacy technicians (PTs) or adjusting their working schedule) were compared in a computer experiment. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients with an incomplete discharge MedRec. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was possible to add a real-life post hoc intervention (PTs starting their shift later) to the theoretical interventions. Descriptive analysis was performed., Results: The queueing model showed that the number of patients with an incomplete discharge MedRec decreased from 37.2% in the original scenario to approximately 16% when the PTs started their shift 2 h earlier and 1 PT was reassigned to prepare the discharge MedRec. The number increased with the real-life post hoc intervention (PTs starting later), which matches a decrease in the computer experiment when started earlier., Conclusion: Using queueing theory in a computer experiment could identify the most promising theoretical intervention to decrease the percentage of patients discharged prior to MedRec being completed., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

The leafroller Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick) is an important pest of temperate fruits. Its biology and population dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature. In this context, this study aims to select a mathematical model that accurately describes the temperature-dependent development rate of A. sphaleropa and applies this model to predict the impact of climate change on the number of annual generations (voltinism) of the pest in southern Brazil. Nine mathematical models were employed to fit the species' developmental rate at different constant temperatures. Voltinism was projected using climate data from the current period (1994-2013) and projections for 2050 and 2070. The Brière-1 model (D(T) = aT(T-T L )(T H -T) 1/2 ) provided the best fit for the temperature-dependent developmental rate of A. sphaleropa. According to this model, the regions with the highest voltinism under current climatic conditions are the northern and central areas of Paraná, the western and northeastern regions of Santa Catarina, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul. The model also predicts a rise in A. sphaleropa voltinism as a consequence of climate change, especially in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with projected increases of up to 25.1%. These regions encompass most areas where temperate fruits used as hosts by the leafroller are cultivated. This study represents a significant advancement in understanding the implications of global warming on A. sphaleropa voltinism and suggests that forthcoming climatic conditions will likely favor the species across much of southern Brazil., (© 2024. Sociedade Entomológica do Brasil.)

This research bears significant implications for river management, flood forecasting, and ecosystem preservation in the Lower Narmada Basin. A more precise estimation of Manning's Roughness Coefficeint (n) will enhance the accuracy of hydraulic models and facilitate informed decision-making regarding flood risk management, water resource allocation, and environmental conservation efforts. Ultimately, this study aspires to contribute to the sustainable management of perennial river systems in India and beyond by offering a robust methodology for optimizing Manning's n tailored to the complex hydrological dynamics of the Lower Narmada Basin. Through a synthesis of empirical evidence and computational modelling, it seeks to empower stakeholders with actionable insights toward preserving and enhancing these invaluable natural resources. Using the new HEC-RAS v 6.0, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed to predict overbank discharge at different points along the basin. The study analyzes water levels, stream discharges, and river stage, optimizing Manning's n and required flood risk management. The model predicted a strong output agreement with R 2 , NSE, and RMSE for the 2020 event as 0.83, 0.81, and 0.36, respectively, with an optimum Manning's n of 0.03. The lower Narmada Basin part near the coastal zone (validation point) appears inundated frequently. The paper aims to provide insights into optimizing Manning's coefficient, which can ultimately lead to better water flow predictions and more efficient water management in the region., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

This study investigates the performance of CMIP6 models in reproducing historical temperature and precipitation data for Iran and neighboring countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, and Iraq) from 1980 to 2014. Reanalysis data from the ECMWF database (ERA5) for temperature and precipitation were utilized as a reference for the period 1980-2014. Additionally, ten Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from CMIP6 were employed to simulate temperature and precipitation data for the study region based on the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report databases. The Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) index was used to evaluate the accuracy of CMIP6 models in replicating daily temperature and precipitation. The results indicate that different CMIP6 models exhibit varying degrees of accuracy in simulating historical temperatures and precipitation, depending on the month and the country. For instance, the IPSL-CM6A-LR model demonstrated the best annual performance in estimating temperature in Azerbaijan (KGE = 0.5), while the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model showed the lowest annual performance in Pakistan (KGE = -1.4). Interestingly, the models were found to be more accurate in simulating temperatures during warm months compared to cold ones. Furthermore, the accuracy of different models in estimating annual precipitation varied significantly, ranging from -0.64 (MRI-EMS2-0 model in Afghanistan) to 0.05 (CMCC-ESM2 model in Armenia). Similar to temperature, the study found that models were generally more accurate in simulating precipitation during cold months compared to warm ones., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Mitigating spill pollution in the Nile River is crucial to protecting aquatic life, water quality, and public health. Extensive studies focused on the assessment of water quality and hydrodynamics of the Nile River, but there have been relatively few studies that have applied integrated hydrodynamic and water quality modeling approaches to simulate actual accidents in the Nile Fourth Reach. The goal of this study is to develop advanced computational models to simulate accidental spills in the Nile River and track the resulting impacts on water quality. Hydrodynamic and water quality simulations were performed using Delft3D software for 144 km of the Nile River, Egypt, from El-Menia to Assuit. Once the hydrodynamic and water quality models were calibrated, two phosphate spill scenarios were modeled under maximum and minimum flow conditions. The spatial distribution of the spill plume along the studied river section was visualized every 12 h following the spill occurrence for both scenarios. The results of the research were calibrated and validated against measured field data. In addition, various error and performance indicators were calculated to thoroughly assess the rigor and reliability of the results. The results demonstrated that flow velocity was the main factor influencing the spill plume characteristics and behavior. Initially, advection force plays a significant role after a spill occurs. After that, phosphate becomes mixed and diluted through dispersion. The spill plume took less time to reach downstream areas during the period of maximum flow compared to minimum flow. Additionally, the concentration of phosphate decreased as the water flowed downstream. The spatial distribution of the spill over time can assist water treatment facilities in developing mitigation strategies to address the spill impacts. However, complex Nile River dynamics demand extensive computational power. Therefore, the model was simplified for spill events, using the modeling capabilities to analyze hypothetical spills and contaminant spread in the absence of real data., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

The effectiveness of an aquaponic system significantly relies on the habitat provided for both the fish and plants. As an integral component of aquaponics, hydroponic cultivation benefits greatly from the controlled environment of a greenhouse. Within this environment, factors such as temperature, carbon dioxide levels, humidity, and light can be carefully adjusted to maximize plant growth and development. This precise regulation ensures an ideal growing environment, fostering the flourishing of plants and contributing to the overall success of the aquaponic ecosystem. This study presented a control approach for an aquaponic greenhouse system. It aims to keep the greenhouse climate parameters (temperature, CO 2 concentration, and humidity) at their ideal levels. The proposed control strategy is a two-layered mechanism in which the first layer presents an optimization framework using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to give the setpoints for the controller, and the second layer demonstrates a constrained discrete model predictive control (CDMPC) strategy to maintain the desired trajectories received from the optimization layer. To validate the results obtained using PSO, this study incorporates genetic algorithms (GA) and assesses their performance in comparison. Given similar computational efficiency and low computational time for both algorithms, the optimal values identified by particle swarm optimization (PSO) are adopted as the setpoints. Two performance criteria, relative average deviation (RAD) and mean relative deviation (MRD), are derived to evaluate the tracking performance of the proposed CDMPC controller under external disturbances. A comparison of the proposed CDMPC with the PI controller is also offered. According to the comparison results, our proposed CDMPC performs better than the PI controller with lower RAD values (temperature, 1.1315; CO 2 concentration, 0.9225; humidity, 2.547) and MRD values (temperature, 0.315; CO 2 concentration, 0.25; humidity: 1.013). The controller is validated to be efficient by its strong control performance, highlighted by robustness, efficient setpoint tracking, and adequate disturbance rejection. This novel approach might prove to be a useful technique for developing environmental control strategies that can be used for potentially boosting production rates of aquaponic greenhouse systems, maximizing profitability, and reducing labor needs. By maintaining optimal conditions, it can enhance ecosystem health, improve yields, and streamline operations, paving the way for greater system performance and sustainability., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Fluidized bed reactor can enhance mass transfer and increase reaction rate. Numerical simulation helps to optimize fluidized bed reactors. The present paper models the photocatalytic oxidation of 2,4-dichlorophenoxy acetic acid in a fluidized bed reactor using the Eulerian-Eulerian model. The drag models have influences on the distribution of catalysts particles. The bed expands under the fluid flow and reaches a quasi-steady height at approximately 3s. The asymmetric distribution of catalysts with respect to the axis plane is predicted. The Gidaspow model predicts the nearly same bed expansion with the experimental data, whereas the Syamlal-O ' Brien model overestimates it. The simulation results at two pH values are in accordance with the experimental data. The removal in the continuous stirred tank reactor decreases with the increase in flow rate., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

This research examines advancements in the development of process-based models of constructed wetlands (CWs) tailored for simulating conventional water quality parameters (CWQPs). Despite the promising potential of CWs for emerging organic contaminant (EOC) removal, the available CW models do not yet integrate EOC removal processes. This study explores the need and possibility of integrating EOCs into existing CW models. Nevertheless, a few researchers have developed process-based models of other wastewater treatment systems (e.g., activated sludge systems) to simulate certain EOCs. The EOC removal processes observed in other wastewater treatment systems are analogous to those in CWs. Therefore, the corresponding equations governing these processes can be tailored and integrated into existing CW models, similarly to what was done successfully in the past for CWQPs. This study proposed the next generation of CW models, which outlines 12 areas for future work: integrating EOC removal processes; ensuring data availability for model calibration and validation; considering quantitative and sensitive parameters; quantifying microorganisms in CWs; modifying biofilm dynamics models; including pH, aeration, and redox potential; integrating clogging and plant sub-models; modifying hydraulic sub-model; advancing computer technology and programming; and maintaining a balance between simplicity and complexity. These suggestions provide valuable insights for enhancing the design and operational features of current process-based models of CWs, facilitating improved simulation of CWQPs, and integration of EOCs into the modelling framework., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Groundwater is the main source of water for agriculture, industry, and families in arid areas. At present, there is an urgent need to protect groundwater due to human activities. In this study, the Qingshui River Basin was selected as the study area. Based on the DRASTIC model, the DRASTIC-Land use type (DRASTICL) model and the analytic hierarchy process-DRASTICL (AHP-DRASTICL) model were constructed by optimizing the indicators and weights. And the three models were applied to calculate the groundwater vulnerability index (GVI), and the groundwater vulnerability map (GVM) was drawn. The validation results of Spearman correlation coefficient show that the DRASTICL model and the AHP-DRASTICL model have higher correlation, which indicates that the optimized model is more accurate. Among them, the AHP-DRASTICL model has the highest correlation coefficient (ρ = 0.92), which is more in line with the actual situation. The results of this study can provide scientific guidance for the protection and utilization of groundwater in the Qingshui River Basin. And it is of guiding significance for the study of groundwater vulnerability, especially for groundwater management in arid and semi-arid areas., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Proper temperature regulation of photovoltaic (PV) modules increases their performance. Among various cooling techniques, phase change materials (PCMs) represent an effective thermal management route, thanks to their large latent heat at constant temperatures. Radiative cooling (RC) is also recently explored as a passive option for PV temperature regulation. In this paper, a heat sink (HS), phase change materials, and radiative cooling are integrated with photovoltaic modules to achieve low and uniform temperature distribution along the PV module and improved performance. Eight different combinations are considered for the proposed system, including HS, PCM, and RC, and their various combinations. The PCM is selected according to the environmental conditions of the selected location. A comprehensive 2-D model is developed and analyzed in COMSOL-Multiphysics software by solving the governing equations using the finite element method. The performance analysis is carried out for the climatic conditions of the Atacama Desert, having high solar radiation and ambient temperature. The effects of PCM height, ambient temperature, wind velocity, and solar radiation on the performance of the proposed system are studied. The performance of eight different configurations is also compared. The maximum reductions in PV temperature, maximum PV power, and a minimum drop in PV conversion efficiency are observed to be 22  o C, 152 W, and 14% using a combined heat sink and radiative cooling systems, among all other configurations. The findings of this study can be used to select the best PV cooling method among different configurations., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

The multitube design in the shell-and-tube type latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) system has received intensive attention due to its promising benefits in enhancing heat storage efficiency. In this paper, single and multi-tube shell LHTES systems were experimentally investigated. First, this study experimentally compared the thermal characteristics between a multiple-tube heat exchanger (MTHX) and a single-tube heat exchanger (STHX). The STHX's geometrical parameters coincided with a virtual cylindrical domain in the MTHX, being similar to the single-tube model formulated by simplifying the numerical solution to investigate the MTHX. The experimental data was then used to validate the simplified numerical model commonly used in the literature that converted the multi-tube problem to a single-tube model by formulating a virtual cylindrical domain for each tube in the MTHX system. The results showed that there was a noticeable difference in the thermal characteristics between the actual STHX and the virtual cylindrical STHX domain in the MTHX system. The comparison indicated that the simplified numerical model could not accurately reflect the thermal performance of the MTHX system. An experimental study or three-dimensional numerical modelling was required for the thermal analysis of the multi-tube problems. Second, the effect of tube number in the MTHX was experimentally investigated. It was found that an increase in tube number boosted both charging and discharging rates without inhibiting the natural convection. The five-tube configuration decreased the total charging and discharging duration by 50% compared to the two-tube one. Finally, the effect of heat transfer fluid (HTF) operating parameters on the system performance was evaluated on the five-tube MTHX system. The results revealed that the adoption of higher HTF temperature considerably improved the charging performance. The charging time decreased by up to 41% with the HTF temperature increasing from 70 to 80 °C. Meanwhile, a variation in the HTF flow rate from 5 to 20 L/min showed a more pronounced influence on charging than on discharging due to the different dominant heat transfer mechanisms., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Microplastics in the environment are considered complex pollutants as they are chemical and corrosive-resistant, non-biodegradable and ubiquitous. These microplastics may act as vectors for the dissemination of other pollutants and the transmission of microorganisms into the water environment. The currently available literature reviews focus on analysing the occurrence, environmental effects and methods of microplastic detection, however lacking a wide-scale systematic review and classification of the mathematical microplastic modelling applications. Thus, the current review provides a global overview of the modelling methodologies used for microplastic transport and fate in water environments. This review consolidates, classifies and analyses the methods, model inputs and results of 61 microplastic modelling studies in the last decade (2012-2022). It thoroughly discusses their strengths, weaknesses and common gaps in their modelling framework. Five main modelling types were classified as follows: hydrodynamic, process-based, statistical, mass-balance and machine learning models. Further, categorisations based on the water environments, location and published year of these applications were also adopted. It is concluded that addressed modelling types resulted in relatively reliable outcomes, yet each modelling framework has its strengths and weaknesses. However, common issues were found such as inputs being unrealistically assumed, especially biological processes, and the lack of sufficient field data for model calibration and validation. For future research, it is recommended to incorporate macroplastics' degradation rates, particles of different shapes and sizes and vertical mixing due to biofouling and turbulent conditions and also more experimental data to obtain precise model inputs and standardised sampling methods for surface and column waters., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Downscaling methods are crucial for accessing high-resolution thermal data simultaneously. The DisTRAD model is commonly used for downscaling thermal images, but changes in soil moisture, such as those caused by irrigation operations, can lead to errors in the process. This study investigated the potential use of TOTRAM and OPTRAM models to reduce errors in LST downscaling in irrigated fields. Sentinel satellite imagery was utilised to enhance the resolution of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) from 1000 to 20 m in the fields of Megsal and Hezarjolfa agro-industrial company in Qazvin province. Soil moisture was estimated using the OPTRAM model, and the results were compared with observational data. The findings indicated that on days with NDVI greater than 0.6, the R 2 value exceeded 0.88 and the RMSE value was less than 0.06 cm 3 /cm 3 . Then, MODIS LST images were downscaled to 20 m using codes in Google Earth Engine (GEE). Evaluation was conducted using observational data from collected land surface temperature data for 36 points. Comparison of the downscaled LST data with observational data on days with irrigation revealed a decrease in MAE and RMSE error indices by approximately 0.4 and 1.2 degrees Celsius, respectively, in the OPTRAM-TPTRAM model compared to the DisTRAD model. Consequently, the OPTRAM-TOTRAM model generally outperforms the DisTRAD model in LST downscaling. Lastly, it is recommended to assess the TOTARM and OPTRAM models for downscaling MODIS sensor LST in other irrigated fields., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

An evaluation of flood vulnerability is needed to identify flood risk locations and determine mitigation methods. This research introduces an integrated method combining hydro-morphometric modeling and flood susceptibility mapping to assess Padma River Basin's flood risk. Flood zoning, flooding classes, and resource flood risk were explicitly analyzed in this river basin study. Flood risk was calculated using GIS-based hydro-morphometric modeling. Using Horton's and Strahler's methods, drainage density, stream density, and stream order of the Padma River Basin were determined. The Padma River Basin has five sub-basins: A, B, C, D, and E, with stream densities of 0.53 km -2 , 0.13 km -2 , 0.25 km -2 , 0.30 km -2 , and 0.28 km -2 and drainage densities of 0.63 km -1 , 0.16 km -1 , 0.29 km -1 , 0.35 km -1 , and 0.33 km -1 , respectively. Sub-basin A is the most prone to floods due to its high stream and drainage density, whereas B and C are the least susceptible. This study used elevation, TWI, slope, precipitation, NDVI, distance from road, drainage density, distance from river, LU/LC, and soil type to create a flood vulnerability map incorporating GIS and AHP with pair-wise comparison matrix (PCM). The study's flood zoning shows that the northeastern part of this basin is more likely to flood than the southwestern part due to its elevation and high-order streams. Moderate River Flooding, the region's most hazardous flood class, covers 48.19% of the flooding area, including 1078.30 km 2 of agricultural land, 94.86 km 2 of bare soil, 486.39 km 2 of settlements, 586.42 km 2 of vegetation cover, and 39.34 km 2 of water bodies. The developed hydro-morphometric model, the flood susceptibility map, and the analysis of this data may be utilized to offer long-term advance alarm insight into areas potentially to be invaded by a flood catastrophe, boosting hazard mitigation and planning., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

In this study, the current distribution probability of Ephedra gerardiana (Somalata), a medicinally potent species of the Himalayas, was assessed, and its spatial distribution change was forecasted until the year 2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here, we used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) on 274 spatially filtered occurrence data points accessed from GBIF and other publications, and 19 bioclimatic variables were used as predictors against the probability assessment. The area under the curve, Continuous Boyce Index, True Skill Statistics, and kappa values were used to evaluate and validate the model. It was observed that the SSP5-8.5, a fossil fuel-fed scenario, saw a maximum habitat decline for E. gerardiana driving its niche towards higher altitudes. Nepal Himalayas witnessed a maximum decline in suitable habitat for the species, whereas it gained area in Bhutan. In India, regions of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, and Sikkim saw a maximum negative response to climate change by the year 2100. Mean annual temperature, isothermality, diurnal temperature range, and precipitation seasonality are the most influential variables isolated by the model that contribute in defining the species' habitat. The results provide evidence of the effects of climate change on the distribution of endemic species in the study area under different scenarios of emissions and anthropogenic coupling. Certainly, the area of consideration encompasses several protected areas, which will become more vulnerable to increased variability of climate, and regulating their boundaries might become a necessary step to conserve the regions' biodiversity in the future., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Groundwater salinity is a critical factor affecting water quality and ecosystem health, with implications for various sectors including agriculture, industry, and public health. Hence, the reliability and accuracy of groundwater salinity predictive models are paramount for effective decision-making in managing groundwater resources. This pioneering study presents the validation of a predictive model aimed at forecasting groundwater salinity levels using three different validation methods and various data partitioning strategies. This study tests three different data validation methodologies with different data-partitioning strategies while developing a group method of data handling (GMDH)-based model for predicting groundwater salinity concentrations in a coastal aquifer system. The three different methods are the hold-out strategy (last and random selection), k-fold cross-validation, and the leave-one-out method. In addition, various combinations of data-partitioning strategies are also used while using these three validation methodologies. The prediction model's validation results are assessed using various statistical indices such as root mean square error (RMSE), means squared error (MSE), and coefficient of determination (R 2 ). The results indicate that for monitoring wells 1, 2, and 3, the hold-out (random) with 40% data partitioning strategy gave the most accurate predictive model in terms of RMSE statistical indices. Also, the results suggested that the GMDH-based models behave differently with different validation methodologies and data-partitioning strategies giving better salinity predictive capabilities. In general, the results justify that various model validation methodologies and data-partitioning strategies yield different results due to their inherent differences in how they partition the data, assess model performance, and handle sources of bias and variance. Therefore, it is important to use them in conjunction to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the groundwater salinity prediction model's behavior and performance., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Global warming upsets the environmental balance and leads to more frequent and severe climatic events. These extreme events include floods, droughts, and heatwaves. These widespread extreme events disrupt various sectors of ecosystems directly. However, among all these events, drought is one of the most prolonged climatic events that significantly destroys the ecosystem. Therefore, accurate and efficient assessment of droughts is necessary to mitigate their detrimental impacts. In recent years, several drought indices based on global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) have been proposed to quantify and monitor droughts. However, each index has its advantages and limitations. As each index ensembles different models by using different statistical approaches, it is well known that the margin of error is always a part of statistics. Therefore, this study proposed a new drought index to reduce the uncertainty involved in the assessment of droughts. The proposed index named the Ridge Ensemble Standardized Drought Index (RESDI) is based on the innovative ensemble approach termed ridge parameters and distance-based weighting (RDW) scheme. And the development of this RDW scheme is based on two types of methods i.e., ridge regression and divergence-based method. In this research, we ensemble 18 different GCMs of CMIP6 using the RDW scheme. A comparative analysis of the RDW scheme is performed against the simple model average (SMA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) schemes at 32 locations on the Tibetan plateau. The comparison revealed that RDW has less mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE). Therefore, the developed RESDI based on RDW is used to project drought properties under three distinct shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, across seven different time scales (1, 3, 7, 9, 12, 24, and 48). The projected data is then standardized by using the K-components Gaussian mixture model (K-CGMM). In addition, the study employs steady-state probabilities (SSPs) to determine the long-term behavior of drought. The outcome of this research shows that "normal drought (ND)" has the highest probability of occurrence under all scenarios and time scales., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Satellite-based precipitation estimates are a critical source of information for understanding and predicting hydrological processes at regional or global scales. Given the potential variability in the accuracy and reliability of these estimates, comprehensive performance assessments are essential before their application in specific hydrological contexts. In this study, six satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs), namely, CHIRPS, CMORPH, GSMaP, IMERG, MSWEP, and PERSIANN, were evaluated for their utility in hydrological modeling, specifically in simulating streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The performance of the VIC model under varying flow conditions and timescales was assessed using statistical indicators, viz., R 2 , KGE, PBias, RMSE, and RSR. The findings of the study demonstrate the effectiveness of VIC model in simulating hydrological components and its applicability in evaluating the accuracy and reliability of SPPs. The SPPs were shown to be valuable for streamflow simulation at monthly and daily timescales, as confirmed by various performance measures. Moreover, the performance of SPPs for simulating extreme flow events (streamflow above 75%, 90%, and 95%) using the VIC model was assessed and a significant decrease in the performance was observed for high-flow events. Comparative analysis revealed the superiority of IMERG and CMORPH for streamflow simulation at daily timescale and high-flow conditions. In contrast, the performances of CHIRPS and PERSIANN were found to be poor. This study highlights the importance of thoroughly assessing the SPPs in modeling diverse flow conditions., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

The water source reservoirs are the important urban water source in northern China. Although external pollution has been greatly improved, the internal pollutants in reservoirs continue to accumulate with the complex deposition and release processes, resulting in potential risks to water supply safety. To address the aforementioned issue, this paper proposed a simulation model of water quality named ECOlab EU1-WSR to simulate the spatio-temporal changes of water quality under the influence of internal pollution for the water source reservoirs. Based on the analysis of the water quality characteristics and the distribution of benthic vegetation in the reservoir, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was established based on MIKE3, the corresponding parameters and the related state variables were set, the ECOlab EU1-WSR model was established by secondly developing the original ECOlab EU1 template, and the real-time dynamic outputs of pollutant content in sediment were added to link the water quality index with sediment nutrition index for better revealing the impact of the internal pollution on the water quality. The performance of the model was evaluated by the case application on the water quality simulation of Daye reservoir and the optimization of the connection project between Daye reservoir and Xueye reservoir in Shandong Province China. The results showed that the model can accurately and simultaneously simulate the pollution in water and sediment by the comparative verification of hydrodynamics, water temperature, and water quality. Moreover, the model can effectively reflect the influence of the accumulation, deposition, and release of internal pollution on water quality by analyzing the correlation between the content of various pollution in water body and those in sediment, such as the total nitrogen and total phosphorus in the water body at the bottom of the water intake, were negatively correlated with the total nitrogen and total phosphorus in the sediments with correlation coefficients of 0.538 and 0.917, respectively. In addition, the optimal water inlet position and water flow rate of the connection project can be optimized and determined by using the model to effectively control water quality. The established model will be a useful tool for the design and management of a reservoir, the interconnection projects, and other water bodies by adaptively recoded., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Physically based or data-driven models can be used for understanding basinwide hydrological processes and creating predictions for future conditions. Physically based models use physical laws and principles to represent hydrological processes. In contrast, data-driven models focus on input-output relationships. Although both approaches have found applications in hydrology, studies that compare these approaches are still limited for data-scarce, semi-arid basins with altered hydrological regimes. This study aims to compare the performances of a physically based model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)) and a data-driven model (Nonlinear AutoRegressive eXogenous model (NARX)) for reservoir volume and streamflow prediction in a data-scarce semi-arid region. The study was conducted in the Tersakan Basin, a semi-arid agricultural basin in Türkiye, where the basin hydrology was significantly altered due to reservoirs (Ladik and Yedikir Reservoir) constructed for irrigation purposes. The models were calibrated and validated for streamflow and reservoir volumes. The results show that (1) NARX performed better in the prediction of water volumes of Ladik and Yedikir Reservoirs and streamflow at the basin outlet than SWAT (2). The SWAT and NARX models both provided the best performance when predicting water volumes at the Ladik reservoir. Both models provided the second best performance during the prediction of water volumes at the Yedikir reservoir. The model performances were the lowest for prediction of streamflow at the basin outlet (3). Comparison of physically based and data-driven models is challenging due to their different characteristics and input data requirements. In this study, the data-driven model provided higher performance than the physically based model. However, input data used for establishing the physically based model had several uncertainties, which may be responsible for the lower performance. Data-driven models can provide alternatives to physically-based models under data-scarce conditions., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

As a flexible electricity pricing mechanism, critical peak pricing (CPP) is one of the important means of demand response under the electricity market. The existing CPP research does not take into account the carbon emission problem of units and weakens the difference between the use of terminal loads on critical peak days and non-critical peak days in the establishment of electricity price model, so this paper studies the feedback mechanism of CPP on coal consumption of power generation side units and proposes a dynamic CPP mechanism that takes into account terminal consumption satisfaction and coal consumption of power generation side units. Firstly, the influence mechanism of CPP on the power generation side is studied. Secondly, the consumer psychology theory is used to construct a user demand response model under critical peak days and non-critical peak days. Then, based on the difference in load usage of end users on critical peak days and non-critical peak days, a multi-objective CPP optimization model that considers the benefits of coal consumption and end user electricity expenditure on the power generation side is constructed. Finally, three scenarios were established to analyze the sensitivity of the user demand response model parameters, terminal satisfaction constraints, prices, and rate restrictions on CPP pricing, load improvement, and unit coal consumption reduction and verify the model's effectiveness. The results show that the proposed CPP optimization model has a significant effect on load improvement and carbon emission reduction; the user response gradient, terminal satisfaction, prices, and rate restrictions have a greater influence on the model optimization results, while the threshold and saturation values have little influence on the model optimization results., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

In this study, Nernst growth model equations are used to explain the anodic biofilm (ABF) modeling, linear sweep voltammetry (LSV) at various growth stages of biofilm, and polarization curve modeling for its electron generation behavior in a miniaturized single-chambered microbial fuel cell (SMFC). Kinetic constants of various growth model equations were determined using non-linear regression analysis. Maximum specific growth rate (μ max ) at anodic surface is observed 0.016 h -1 at a glucose concentration of 12 g L -1 , whereas retardation in μ max is observed 14 g L -1 or more in SMFC. LSV results showed maximum current density of 6720.56 mA m -2 . Anode performance in SMFC is examined through polarization curve resulting maximum open-circuit voltage (OCV), minimum charge transfer loss, and ohmic loss for NWG (NiWO 4 impregnated on rGO), NiWO 4 , rGO, and plain CC (carbon cloth) anode. These results demonstrate significant enhancement in performance of MFC to lead towards model-based process controlling for significant scale-up in future., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

The use of β-lactam (BL) and β-lactamase inhibitor (BLI) combinations, such as piperacillin-tazobactam (PIP-TAZ) is an effective strategy to combat infections by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing bacteria. However, in Gram-negative bacteria, resistance (both mutational and adaptive) to BL-BLI combination can still develop through multiple mechanisms. These mechanisms may include increased β-lactamase activity, reduced drug influx, and increased drug efflux. Understanding the relative contribution of these mechanisms during resistance development helps identify the most impactful mechanism to target in designing a treatment to counter BL-BLI resistance. This study used semi-mechanistic mathematical modeling in combination with antibiotic sensitivity assays to assess the potential impact of different resistance mechanisms during the development of PIP-TAZ resistance in a Klebsiella pneumoniae isolate expressing CTX-M-15 and SHV-1 β-lactamases. The mathematical models were used to evaluate the potential impact of several cellular changes as a sole mediator of PIP-TAZ resistance. Our semi-mechanistic model identified 2 out of the 13 inspected mechanisms as key resistance mechanisms that may independently support the observed magnitude of PIP-TAZ resistance, namely porin loss and efflux pump up-regulation. Simulation using the resulting models also suggested the possible adjustment of PIP-TAZ dose outside its commonly used 8:1 dosing ratio. The current study demonstrated how theory-based mechanistic models informed by experimental data can be used to support hypothesis generation regarding potential resistance mechanisms, which may guide subsequent experimental studies., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

Accurately predicting potential evapotranspiration (PET) is crucial in water resource management, agricultural planning, and climate change studies. This research aims to investigate the performance of two machine learning methods, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and the deep belief network (DBN), in forecasting PET, as well as to explore the potential of hybridizing the ANFIS approach with the Snake Optimizer (ANFIS-SO) algorithm. The study utilized a comprehensive dataset spanning the period from 1983 to 2020. The ANFIS, ANFIS-SO, and DBN models were developed, and their performances were evaluated using statistical metrics, including R 2 , R adj 2 , NSE, WI, STD, and RMSE. The results showcase the exceptional performance of the DBN model, which achieved R 2 and R adj 2 values of 0.99 and NSE and WI scores of 0.99 across the nine stations analyzed. In contrast, the standard ANFIS method exhibited relatively weaker performance, with R 2 and R adj 2 values ranging from 0.52 to 0.88. However, the ANFIS-SO approach demonstrated a substantial improvement, with R 2 and R adj 2 values ranging from 0.94 to 0.99, suggesting the value of optimization techniques in enhancing the model's capabilities. The Taylor diagram and violin plots with box plots further corroborated the comparative analysis, highlighting the DBN model's superior ability to closely match the observed standard deviation and correlation and its consistent and low-variance predictions. The ANFIS-SO method also exhibited enhanced performance in these visual representations, with an RMSE of 0.86, compared to 0.95 for the standard ANFIS. The insights gained from this study can inform the selection of the most appropriate modeling technique, whether it be the high-precision DBN, the flexible ANFIS, or the optimized ANFIS-SO approach, based on the specific requirements and constraints of the application., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The western flanks of the Western Ghats are one of the major landslide hotspots in India. Recent rainfall triggered landslide incidents in this humid tropical region necessitating the accurate and reliable landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) of selected parts of Western Ghats for hazard mitigation. In this study, a GIS-coupled fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique is used to evaluate the landslide-susceptible zones in a highland segment of the Southern Western Ghats. Fuzzy numbers specified the relative weights of nine landslide influencing factors that were established and delineated using the ArcGIS, and the pairwise comparison of these fuzzy numbers in the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) system resulted in standardized causative factor weights. Thereafter, the normalized weights are assigned to corresponding thematic layers, and finally, a landslide susceptibility map is generated. The model is validated using the area under the curve values (AUC) and F1 scores. The result reveals that about 27% of the study area is classified as highly susceptible zones followed by 24% area in moderately susceptible zone, 33% in low susceptible, and 16% in a very low susceptible area. Also, the study shows that the plateau scarps in the Western Ghats are highly susceptible to the occurrence of landslides. Moreover, the predictive accuracy estimated by the AUC scores (79%) and F1 scores (85%) shows that the LSM map is trustworthy for future hazard mitigation and land use planning in the study area., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Hybrid power systems can be affected by various uncertain parameters such as technical, economic, and environmental factors. These parameters may have both positive and negative impacts on the overall performance of the system. Therefore, in this study, an effective optimization method for modeling and optimization of a hybrid solar-battery-diesel power structure for remote consumers is proposed. The purpose of this method is to find the optimal configuration of the hybrid structure from the technical-economical-environmental point of view to cover the load demand requirements of remote consumers. To verify the performance of the hybrid microgrid, the results of the hybrid system based on the hourly meteorological data and load profile are compared with the results of the conventional diesel generator (DG). The optimization problem is solved using a harmony search optimization algorithm. The results show that the solar/battery/DG system is more suitable than the DG-only system in different uncertainty indexes based on economic and environmental aspects. Also, by the increase of the uncertainty index from 0.5 to 10%, the optimal total cost of the system decreases by 36.5%, while at the same time the unavailability value increases from 0.2259% to 9.9568%. Additionally, when the interest rate value increases from 1 to 7%, the total cost value increases around 17. 4%., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Sea surface temperature (SST), with its complex and dynamic behavior, is a major driver of ocean-atmosphere interactions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the behavior of SST and its prediction using a chaotic approach. Average mutual information (AMI) and Cao methods were used to reconstruct the phase space. The Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension were used to investigate chaos. The Lyapunov exponent index was used to predict SST with a 5-year average prediction horizon using the local prediction method between 2023 and 2027. The results showed a 3-month delay time for the Pacific and Antarctic Oceans, and a 2-month delay time for the Atlantic, Indian, and Arctic Oceans. The optimal embedding dimension for all oceans is between 6 and 7. Our analysis reveals that the dynamics of SST in all oceans exhibit varying degrees of chaos, as indicated by the correlation dimension. The local prediction method achieves relatively accurate short-term SST predictions due to the clustering of SST points around specific attractors in the phase space. However, in the long term, the accuracy of this method decreases as the points in the phase space of SST can spread randomly. The model performance ranking with a Percent Mean Relative Absolute Error shows that the Indian Ocean has the best performance compared to other oceans, while the Atlantic, Pacific, and Antarctic and Arctic Oceans are in the next ranks. This study contributes to understanding the dynamics of SST and has practical value for use in the development of climate models., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

The concept of "smart rotor" is an evolving advancement in wind turbine which enables an intelligent active flow control in rotor. The deformable trailing edge flap (DTEF) is a part of smart rotor concept which implements a customized active load control. The trailing edge flap actuator effectively replaces the tedious blade pitch actuation and conserves the actuation energy required for pitching the entire blade. The DTEFs require a fast computing, anticipatory controller for optimally tuning the flap angle with minimal power compromise. This work analyzes the performance of advanced control strategies like model predictive control (MPC), adaptive MRAC control, and DQ controllers. The MRAC controller is found to reduce the fatigue stress by 40% and the MPC controller damps up to 70% more efficiently than the typical feedback controller. The control strategies are aided by the LiDAR-based preview wind data for the active manipulation of trailing edge flap angle ( θ flap ) control. The validation of proposed controller is done using power analysis curve and the component fatigue lifetime analysis using MLIFE software. The above analyses are done in NREL Onshore 5-MW FAST wind turbine model which could be interfaced with MATLAB with modified AeroDyn code for active flap deflection., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Assessment of water availability in sub-humid regions is important due to distinct climatic and environmental conditions. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) models have been assessed in simulating streamflows in the sub-humid tropical Kabini basin in Kerala, India, spanning 1260 km 2 . Calibration and validation utilized daily weather data from 1997 to 2015 from the Muthankera gauging station. The study investigated the impact of routing methods on runoff simulation in the ArcSWAT, exploring Muskingum and Variable Storage methods. Evaluation metrics encompassed Nash-Sutcliffe Efïciency (NSE), Coefficient of Determination (R 2 ), Percent bias (PBIAS), RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), and Peak Percent Threshold Statistics (PPTS) approach for high-flow values. The result indicates that HEC-HMS outperforms SWAT concerning R 2 and NSE values during daily calibration and validation. Monthly simulations showed HEC-HMS closely aligning with SWAT (Variable storage), outperforming SWAT (Muskingum). The PPTS approach proved effective in simulating high-flow values. Both models exhibited proficiency in streamflow analysis within the study area, promising predictive potential for future hydrological studies in sub-humid regions., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

This study evaluates hydrology and hydrological extremes under future climate change scenarios. The climate change scenarios were developed from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs), Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and statistical downscaling techniques. To ensure hydrological model robustness, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated using the Differential Split Sample Test (DSST) approach. The model was also calibrated and validated at the multi-gauges of the watershed. Future climate change scenarios revealed a reduction in precipitation (in the order of -9.1% to 4.9%) and a consistent increase in maximum temperature (0.34°C to 4.10°C) and minimum temperature (-0.15 °C to 3.7°C) in different climate model simulations. The climate change scenarios triggered a reduction of surface runoff and streamflow and a moderate increase in evapotranspiration. Future climate change scenarios projected a decrease in high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95). A higher reduction of Q5 and annual minimum flow is also simulated in future climate scenarios, whereas an increase in annual maximum flow is simulated in climate change scenarios developed from the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The study suggests optimal water management structures which can reduce the effect of change in high and low flows., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Ensuring the safety of Arctic shipping and preserving the Arctic ecological environment are emerging as key challenges in the shipping sector. Ship collisions and getting trapped in ice are frequently occurring under dynamic ice conditions due to the Arctic environment, making research on ship navigation in Arctic routes significant. Leveraging ship networking technology, we developed an intelligent microscopic model which considered factors such as the future motion trends of multi-ships in front and the influence of pack ice, and carried out a stability analysis of the model utilizing linear and nonlinear methods. Additionally, the accuracy of the theoretical results was further validated through simulation experiments with diverse scenarios. The conclusions manifest that the model can magnify the anti-disturbance ability of traffic flow. Additionally, the problem of energy consumption due to ship speed is explored, and it is determined that the model has a positive intention in reducing speed fluctuations and ship energy consumption. This paper highlights the potential of intelligent microscopic models in studying the safety and sustainability of Arctic shipping routes, providing targeted initiatives to improve safety, efficiency, and sustainability in Arctic shipping., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

The world has been facing an increase in various natural hazards. The coastal regions are recognized as one of the most vulnerable due to high population pressure and climate change intensity. Mediterranean countries have one of the most burnable ecosystems in the world, one of the most exposed to pluvial floods, and have the highest erosion rates within the EU. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop the first multihazard susceptibility model in Croatia for the Sali settlement (island of Dugi otok). The creation of a multi-hazard susceptibility model (MHSM) combined the application of geospatial technology (GST) with a local perception survey. The methodology consisted of two main steps: (1) creating individual hazard susceptibility models (soil erosion, wildfires, pluvial floods), and (2) overall hazard susceptibility modeling. Multicriterial GIS analyses and the Analytical Hierarchy Process were used to create individual hazard models. Criteria used (32) to create models are derived from very-high-resolution (VHR) models. Two versions of MHSM are created: 1) all criteria with equal weighting coefficients and 2) weight coefficients determined based on public perception. According to MHSM 1, most of the research (58%) area is moderately susceptible to multiple hazards. Highly and very highly susceptible areas are 27% of the drainage basin and are mostly located near roads and houses. MHSM 2 reveals similar results to MHSM 1. The public perceives that the research area is the most susceptible to wildfires. The wildfire ignition risk is ranked as moderate (3.00) with a standard deviation of 1.16. Pluvial flood risk is ranked low (2.78), with a standard deviation of 1.15. The risk of soil is most inferior (2.24) with a standard deviation of 0.91. The the most significant difference between public perception and the GIS-MCDA model of hazard susceptibility is related to soil erosion. However, the accuracy of the soil erosion model was confirmed by ROC curves based on recent traces of soil erosion in the research area. The proposed methodological framework of multi-hazard susceptibility modeling can be applied, with minor modifications, to other Mediterranean countries., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

By increasing solar radiation, the temperature of photovoltaic cells rises, and as a result, the electrical power and lifespan of the panel are reduced. By cooling the panel with two-phase closed thermosyphons (TPCTs), this effect can be minimized. In contrast to typical TPCT, which has a circular cross-section, the thermosyphon used in this study has a square cross-section. In the proposed system, the solar cells place on an aluminum plate to reduce the thermal resistance and improve the heat transfer rate. Investigations have been made on the effects of three different filling ratios, including 25, 45, and 65%. The trial results show that equipped PV panel with square TPCT with a filling ratio of 45% produces the best cooling performance. In this instance, 68.31 kJ of heat energy was transmitted to the tank water. Electrically, the equipped panel has been found to produce up to 3.85% greater output power than a conventional one. A new mathematical model to estimate the performance of equipped PV panel with square TPCT is introduced too. Additionally, the research has looked into how varied tank volumes, solar radiation, and wind velocity affect the temperature difference in tank water. Based on environmental investigations, the proposed solar system is used instead of natural gas and fuel oil, it will prevent the annual emission of 106.3 and 159.4 kg of CO 2 per unit area of the panel to atmosphere., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

The practices of prefabricated buildings illustrate the incentives in prefabricated markets as well as the decision-making behavior of stakeholders, which can influence the transformation, upgrading, and sustainability of the buildings sector. The game between the stakeholders in the prefabricated buildings market becomes complicated by the fact that they dynamically adjust their strategies in response to changing market conditions. With the aim of quantitatively studying the implications of the dynamic decision behavior of prefabricated construction stakeholders on the prefabricated construction market, this study introduces component suppliers as participating agents and government subsidies and penalties as the main measures. And a three-way model of the evolutionary game involving government subsidies and punitive schemes is constructed by this study. The essay examines the evolutionary equilibrium strategies of each game subject as well as the effect of original strategies and different parameter choices on the decision-making of each subject using MATLAB. The findings reveal that (1) decision-making behaviors among the government, component suppliers, and developers are both interrelated and constrained, but governments are the dominant agents in the evolution of prefabricated buildings. (2) Parameters such as subsidies, penalties, costs, and benefits affect the stability of the tripartite evolutionary model, which remains consistent with the previous research. (3) Component suppliers have an equally important position in the development of prefabricated buildings as recognized entities such as developers and contractors. (4) When subsidies are kept at 40% of the incremental cost and penalties at 80% of the incremental cost, the model combines a fast evolutionary rate with stable model evolution. In conclusion, the article's research findings not only validate the rationality and feasibility of component suppliers as research subjects and confirm the importance of component suppliers but also propose a more reasonable boundary value for penalties and subsidies, which provides a reference for the government to improve the incentive and punishment measures as well as the dynamic adjustment strategy of stakeholders and also provides a new perspective to achieve the goal of sustainable development of construction., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Land use changes have profoundly influenced global environmental dynamics. The Yellow River (YR), as the world's fifth-longest river, significantly contributes to regional social and economic growth due to its extensive drainage area, making it a key global player. To ensure ecological stability and coordinate land use demand, modeling the future land allocation patterns of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) will assist in striking a balance between land use functions and the optimization of its spatial design, particularly in water and sand management. In this research, we used a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) with the PLUS model to simulate several different futures for the YRB's land use between 1990 and 2020 and predict its spatial pattern in 2030. An analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use changes in the YRB indicated that construction land expansion is the primary driver of landscape pattern and structure changes and ecological degradation, with climate change also contributing to the expansion of the watershed area. On the other hand, the multi-scenario simulation, constrained by specific targets, revealed that economic development was mainly reflected in land expansion for construction. At the same time, grassland and woodland were essential pillars to support the region's ecological health, and increasing the development of unused land emerged as a potential pathway towards sustainable development in the region. This study could be used as a template for the long-term growth of other large river basins by elucidating the impacts of human activities on land use and rationalizing land resource allocation under various policy constraints., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)