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This paper presents a validation of outputs from some GCMs of the CMIP6 project when used to assess climate projection and hydrological flows at a catchment scale for the case study area of the Lombardy region (Northern Italy). The modeling chain consists of (i) a choice of climatic scenarios from 10 GCMs of the CMIP6, (ii) the application of a stochastic downscaling procedure to make projections usable at the local scale, and (iii) the use of a semi-distributed physically based hydrological model Poli-Hydro for the generation of hydrological scenarios. Data on observed precipitation and temperature were collected from automatic weather stations, and the hydrological budget of four target catchments within the study area was assessed using Poli-Hydro. An ex-post (back-casting) analysis was performed upon the control data series from the GCMs by comparing statistics of relevant climate variables and model-simulated discharges against observed counterparts during the historical period 2002–2014. Then, during 2015–2021, the goodness of projections was assessed using confidence intervals. Our results show that the accuracy of GCMs in representing regional climate is not always reflected in a credible evaluation of local hydrology. The validation of climate patterns provides somewhat poor results; thus, the interaction among climate and hydrology needs to be explored carefully to warrant the credibility of hydrological scenarios. Overall, the spatial and temporal consistency of GCM projections, as explored here climatically and hydrologically, provides a clue about their dependability for basin scale management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Henan Province is the birthplace of Chinese civilization and one of the earliest human settlements, which means that the area has an important national cultural heritage. Traditional villages are an important facet of this cultural heritage, and studying their spatiotemporal characteristics in different periods has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development and protection of cultural heritage in the region. This paper takes the traditional villages of the Yellow River basin in Henan Province that were formed before 1919 as the research object. Information on the ancient river was obtained through a literature search as well as via field research, and the important tributaries of the Yellow River in different periods were mapped using ArcGIS 10.0 software. The nearest neighbor index, kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse and other methods were adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the traditional villages. The factors that influenced the evolution of traditional villages were explored in depth by combining changes in the course of the river and water conservancy projects. The results show that the formation of traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province has experienced a historical track of growth, contraction, growth and prosperity and stability. The traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province generally show a clustered pattern, forming a dense concentration of traditional villages in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The center of gravity shows a migration trend from southeast to northwest. In terms of influencing factors, the spatiotemporal evolution of the relationship between villages and their distance to water is closely related to climatic fluctuations, changes in channel, water conservancy projects and social and cultural factors. This paper deepens our understanding of the relationship between traditional village evolution and watersheds by improving the consistency between village spatial distribution and historical geography and provides a useful theoretical reference for the sustainable development of China's traditional villages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an assessment of the rates of erosion and sedimentation in hollows of the Temeva Rechka small dry valley catchment, dominated by forest-steppe gray forest soils (Luvic Retic Greyzemic Phaeozems), over the past 55–60 years with the use of the radiocesium technique. This catchment is located in the Myosha River basin (Republic of Tatarstan, European Russia). The hollows have been grouped by the catchment's slope aspects, hollow length, hollow bottom gradient, and shape of the thalweg profile of the hollow bottoms; origin and age, as well as by the specifics of erosion/sedimentation processes. Short agrogenic hollows with a small catchment area on relatively steep western slopes of the Temeva Rechka small dry valley, probably formed after human deforestation, have been identified. The shape of their catchments contributes to the formation of surface runoff, sufficient for the erosion of a significant part of their bottoms at a rate of about 2–4 t/ha per year. Older, polygenetic, and relatively long hollows with a slightly sloping bottom and larger catchments serve as sediment transit zones between plowed areas and the Temeva Rechka small dry valley bottom. They are characterized by alternating areas of soil erosion and sediment accumulation. The average rate of soil erosion in these landforms is 0.8 t/ha per year. In some hollows, when several small tributaries (smaller hollows) flow into their lower parts, soil erosion loss increases to 3 t/ha per year. The average soil erosion loss is 6 t/ha per year on short slopes of the hollows; in their upper parts, it can reach 11 t/ha per year. There is a general decrease in the rates of soil erosion and accumulation of eroded material in recent decades due to changes in climate and land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterizing the response of temperature variables to agricultural irrigation is expected to be an important challenge for understanding the full impact of water management on regional climate change. In this paper, the trend analysis and abrupt change test were applied to detect the global warming effect. Then, the quantitative irrigation-induced cooling effects on temperature variables between April and August from 1970 to 2010 in the Lhasa River basin were estimated using historical time series of gridded meteorological records and a map of the area equipped for irrigation. Trends in the maximum temperature (Tmax) were statistically positive, and a significant increasing trend for the minimum temperature (Tmin) was detected at the 0.01 and 0.05 confidence levels. No abrupt changing point of warming was detected in the time series for Tmax. The abrupt changes in Tmin in the irrigation concentration period took place in 1995, 5 years later than the corresponding change in April. Affected by global warming, the increase in temperature was the largest in July and August, when the irrigation-induced cooling effect was also the most significant. The irrigation-induced cooling effect for Tmax and Tmin in April–August (except for June) ranged from − 0.017 to − 0.009 °C/decade and from − 0.011 to − 0.001 °C/decade, respectively, and the cooling effect for diurnal temperature range (DTR) ranged from − 0.011 to 0 °C/decade. The cooling effect on temperature reached above 0.01 °C in July and August, but for the growing seasons, the effect was weak, only 0.001 °C. The Tmax and Tmin trends during the whole growing seasons decreased by both 0.002 °C/decade, respectively, with a 10% increase in irrigation land proportion. Even in July and August, the trends were expected to decrease by about 0.005 °C/decade with a 10% increase in irrigation land proportion. The irrigation-induced cooling effect could partially slow global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the Upper Tigris River (UTR) drainage basin in Turkey for climate change impacted runoff estimations. Statistical downscaling method (SDM) is used by taking into consideration spatial dependence function (SDF) for the scenario precipitation projections at a set of available meteorology stations. Temporal adjustment between the climate scenarios and precipitation record time series is achieved by the white Markov (WM) stochastic process. Although various climate research center scenario data are considered, herein, only the general circulation model (GCM) A2 scenario data are adapted from the Hadley Center, England. The precipitation and runoff results are presented in decadal groups starting from 2001 to 2050 as cumulative monthly precipitation (CMP) and cumulative monthly runoff (CMR) graphs. It is observed that after 2021, precipitation decreases at about 12.5% and after 2030, it is 26%. Runoff projections indicate that they may decrease at about 30% especial after 2040. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from El Niño to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Niño in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO and P-PO loads is an increase by 20-60 and 24-31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological processes depend directly on climate conditions [e.g., precipitation, potential evapotranspiration ( PE)] based on the water balance. This paper examines streamflow datasets at four hydrological stations and meteorological observations at 79 weather stations to reveal the streamflow changes and underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Meigang, Saitang, Gaosha, and Xiashan) within Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2000. Most of the less than 90th percentile of daily streamflow in each watershed increases significantly at different rates. As an important indicator of the seasonal changes in the streamflow, CT (the timing of the mass center of the streamflow) in each watershed shows a negligible change. The annual streamflow in each watershed increases at different rates, with a statistically significant trend (at the 5 % level) of 9.87 and 7.72 mm year, respectively, in Meigang and Gaosha watersheds. Given the existence of interactions between precipitation and PE, the original climate elasticity of streamflow can not reflect the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE effectively. We modify this method and find the modified climate elasticity to be more accurate and reasonable using the correlation analysis. The analyses from the modified climate elasticity in the four watersheds show that a 10 % increase (decrease) in precipitation will increase (decrease) the annual streamflow by 14.1-16.3 %, while a 10 % increase (decrease) in PE will decrease (increase) the annual streamflow by −10.2 to −2.1 %. In addition, the modified climate elasticity is applied to estimate the contribution of annual precipitation and PE to the increasing annual streamflow in each watershed over the past 40 years. Our result suggests that the percentage attribution of the increasing precipitation is more than 59 % and the decreasing in PE is less than 41 %, indicating that the increasing precipitation is the major driving factor for the annual streamflow increase for each watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Shiyang River drainage basin is located in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon region. Previous studies reached different conclusions about Holocene climatic changes in the basin. Some studies suggested the Holocene climatic changes were mainly controlled by the Asian monsoon and that the climate was relatively humid during the early Holocene (11.6--7.1 cal ka BP). Other studies found the mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum (7.0--5.0 cal ka BP), and this climate condition was similar to the Holocene westerly wind pattern in arid Central Asia. The modern climate is affected by the Asian monsoon and westerly wind in the drainage basin, and the Holocene climatic records showed two different Holocene climatic patterns--a westerly wind pattern and monsoonal pattern. However, it remains unclear what caused the two different Holocene climatic patterns to co-exist in the region. The palynological records are the main evidence for the Holocene climatic changes in the basin. This paper focuses on palynological records for different parts of the drainage basin. Among them, QTH02, QTL-03 and Sanjiaocheng records are located in the terminal lake, and the Hongshuihe record is located in the middle reaches of the basin. In the terminal lake, the palynological records of QTH02 and QTL-03 are similar, but the Sanjiaocheng record differs. The difference is mainly affected by the variable pollen assemblages in the different locations of the lake basin. From comparison and synthesis of the four palynological records, we concluded that the millennial-scale Holocene climatic changes were affected by the combined effects of the Asian monsoon and westerly wind in the drainage basin, which show the complicated Holocene climatic pattern in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aquatic colonial stalked diatom, Didymosphenia geminata, has acquired notoriety in recent years because of huge increases in many rivers of temperate regions. However, in some streams in northern England it has probably or, in the case of the R. Coquet (Northumberland), certainly been abundant for many decades. The paper describes the nutrient environment and phosphatase activities of Didymosphenia in Stony Gill (N. Yorkshire), a fast-flowing stream draining an upland catchment with peaty soils overlying limestone. Organic phosphate formed 85% of the filtrable phosphate in the water during the study (January–August 2000), with a maximum in April. Colonies were most abundant in June, but had disappeared by August. Surface phosphomonoesterase (PMEase) and phosphodiesterase activities assayed from March to July showed low PMEase activity in early March, but otherwise both were high throughout the period and especially so in June and July. Use of BCIP-NBT staining procedure showed that PMEase activity occurred in the stalks. A more detailed study of colony structure and staining with material from the R. Coquet in June 2006 also showed marked PMEase activity, with staining localized in the upper part of the stalks and the cells remaining unstained. It is suggested that organic phosphate is hydrolyzed in the stalk and the inorganic phosphate passes to the cell via a central tube in the stalk. It seems likely that organic phosphate as a major P source is a key factor favouring the success of Didymosphenia. The possible impact of environmental changes in the catchment such as climatic warming, C loss from peat and atmospheric N deposition is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Inner Mongolia grassland of China is representative of semi-arid grasslands in temperate zones. Studying land surface processes in this region will improve the understanding of regional climate formation and the feedback with global climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides an excellent opportunity to study land-atmosphere interactions at the regional scale. It is necessary to develop feasible and reasonable remote sensing-based methods to map surface energy fluxes for a specific study area. In this paper, previously published algorithms and empirical formulae were tested with Landsat 7 ETM+ data to derive the regional distributions of land surface reflectance, surface temperature, NDVI and land surface energy fluxes (net radiation, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux) over the upper Xilin River watershed in Inner Mongolia, China. A new land use/land cover classification was developed and applied for regionalization analysis. Validation of remote sensing derived surface reflectance, surface temperature, net radiation and sensible heat flux with field measurements shows differences of about 13, 4, 1, and 28%, respectively. This study provides valuable guidance for further investigation of the whole watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatially explicit population data can play an important role in studies on environment and sustainability. Several gridded datasets on the present population exist, but global data on future populations are largely lacking. This paper presents a dataset covering three global population forecasts for the period 1990–2100 at 0.5-degrees resolution. The basis for these forecasts is the SRES scenarios developed for the IPCC climate-modeling framework. In addition, a gridded dataset of urban and rural populations for the period 1990–2050 is presented. To illustrate how the datasets can be used, future changes in population density and urbanization were analyzed for some of the world’s major river basins. This analysis shows that the population density in the Ganges basin, which is already very high, is likely to increase considerably. The highest future increase rates were found in some African and Middle-Eastern basins. The population dataset for 2015 was compared with one previously published gridded dataset. The comparison shows some differences in population density, mainly in small, highly urbanized coastal river basins, while for large basins, the two datasets agree fairly well. We hope that the datasets here presented will prove to be a useful resource also for other researchers of global environmental change and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]