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A common and largely unresolved problem of national-scale landslide early warning systems is their independent evaluation. In a recent paper, Mondini et al. (Nat Commun 14:2466, 2023) proposed a deep-learning system for short-term forecasting of rain-induced shallow landslides in Italy. Here, we independently evaluate the performance of this national-scale system by demonstrating its application between 1 January and 31 May 2021. For the purpose, we use hourly rainfall measurements from the same rain gauge network and different and independent information on the timing and location of 163 rain-induced landslides obtained from the FraneItalia catalogue that occurred in Italy in a period non considered in the construction of the system (https://zenodo.org/records/7923683). Independent demonstration confirmed the good predictive performance of the forecasting system and revealed no geographical or temporal bias in the forecasts. The analysis also showed that the system was more effective at predicting multiple landslides in the same general area than single landslides. This was a good result as multiple landslides are inherently more dangerous than single failures. Analysis of the few misclassified landslides showed that approximately one-third of the landslides were rockfalls, and for approximately another third there was uncertainty about when or where the landslides occurred. We conclude that, despite the inevitable misclassifications inherent in any probabilistically based national-scale landslide forecasting system, the deep-learning system analysed is well suited for short-term operational forecasting of rain-induced shallow landslides in Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last 10 years, also due to climate change, extreme rain events have affected the Basilicata region (southern Italy) causing landslides and floods that have damaged urban fabric, commercial activities and transport infrastructures. In many of these cases, the civil protection system, involving national (DPC) and regional (DRPC) Civil Protection Departments, was activated to manage the emergency phase in cooperation with local administrations and scientific institutions, which in this context are referred to as competence centres (CdCs). Among the latter, the Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA) of the Italian National Research Council (CNR) has been frequently involved in carrying out geophysical investigations in landslide areas, especially during the post-event phase. This paper reports the main results of the in-field geophysical surveys carried out in two areas of the Basilicata region affected by significant landslides in the last 10 years. The aim of the surveys was to provide the DRPC technicians with a useful subsoil geophysical model to improve the knowledge of the geological setting of the slope, to reconstruct the geometry of landslide body and to highlight high water content areas, in order to support the decision-making process. At the end of the paper, a discussion follows with the lessons learned from each case study along with recommendations on how to possibly improve the application of geophysical techniques in landslide investigations in order to further increase their impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a major threat to human activities, and thus an improved understanding of their triggering mechanisms is needed. The paper reports some preliminary inferences on this topic, based on the data recorded over a 2-year period by a multi-parametric monitoring station located on one of the slopes of the Monterosso catchment (Cinque Terre, north-western Italy). This catchment has experienced multiple, concurrent shallow landslides after intense rainfall events. After defining a soil hydraulic model through data interpretation and numerical simulations, slope stability analyses were performed to elucidate several aspects related to shallow landslide occurrence. Both long-term climate conditions and single rainfall events were simulated via physically based approaches. The findings from these simulations enabled us to assume the pattern of infiltration and quantify the impact of soil hydraulic behavior on landslide triggering conditions. In this regard, various analyses were carried out on the same triggering event both at local scale and in the overall catchment, with a view to highlighting the role of initial soil moisture and soil hysteretic behavior in slope stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslide hazards have significant social, economic, and environmental impact. This work provides a critical review of the main existing literature using satellite data for mapping landslides. We created and examined an extensive bibliographic database from Web of Science (WoS) consisting in 291 outputs from > 1,000 authors who studied almost 700,000 landslides across all continents, for a total of 52 countries represented with China and Italy on top of the list with more authors. The outputs are equivalent to ~ 5% of the whole landslide-related production for the period 1996–2022, with a 600% increase in the number of papers after 2014 driven by the availability of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data. Analysis of the geographical location across the 66 different countries analysed shows that, within the total number of contributions, the satellite imagery was used to detect and map two main types of landslides: flows and slides. When specified in the manuscripts, the events have been triggered by rainfall (104 cases), earthquakes (32 cases), or both (17 cases). Slope instabilities in these areas were predominantly identified through manual detection (40%); but since 2020, the advent of artificial intelligence is suppressing all other techniques. Despite the undisputed progress of EO-based landslide mapping over the last 26 years, which makes it a consolidated tool for many landslide-related applications, challenges still remain for an effective and operational use of EO images for landslide detection and mapping, and we provide a perspective for future applications considering the existing and the planned SAR satellite missions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several impacts of climate change are becoming evident and will be more and more apparent in the future. The threats and challenges posed by weather patterns variations can change according to the variables of interest, geography, and socio-economic contexts. At the moment, we are compelled to assess their impacts, so as to identify priorities and devise effective countermeasures. A major concern is that of geo-hydrological risks, including the potential effects of landslide evolution in unstable areas. Based on available data on the relationship between soil–atmosphere interaction and mobility of a slow active earthflow in Southern Italy, the paper tries to correlate the expected future precipitation potential evapotranspiration balance and the water level fluctuations that govern landslide mobility. The investigation is carried out in the framework of the bottom-up approach known as decision scaling, which lets us evaluate landslide dynamics sensitivity to the variations in soil water budget by means of a simple abacus. Such a tool will make it possible to obtain fast updates on assessing landslide trends when new generations of climate projections become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslide early warning systems (LEWS) can be categorized into two groups: territorial and local systems. Territorial landslide early warning systems (Te-LEWS) deal with the occurrence of several landslides in wide areas: at municipal/regional/national scale. The aim of such systems is to forecast the increased probability of landslide occurrence in a given warning zone. The performance evaluation of such systems is often overlooked, and a standardized procedure is still missing. This paper describes a new Excel user-friendly tool for the application of the EDuMaP method, originally proposed by (Calvello and Piciullo 2016). A description of indicators used for the performance evaluation of different Te-LEWS is provided, and the most useful ones have been selected and implemented into the tool. The EDuMaP tool has been used for the performance evaluation of the "SMART" warning model operating in Piemonte region, Italy. The analysis highlights the warning zones with the highest performance and the ones that need threshold refinement. A comparison of the performance of the SMART model with other models operating in different Te-LEWS has also been carried out, highlighting critical issues and positive aspects. Lastly, the SMART performance has been evaluated with both the EDuMaP and a standard 2 × 2 contingency table for comparison purposes. The result highlights that the latter approach can lead to an imprecise and not detailed assessment of the warning model, because it cannot differentiate among the levels of warning and the variable number of landslides that may occur in a time interval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In different areas of the world, shallow landslides represent a remarkable hazard inducing fatalities and economic damages. Then, the evaluation about potential variation in frequency of such hazard under the effect of climate changes should be a priority for defining reliable adaptation measurements. Unfortunately, current performances of climate models on sub-daily scales, relevant for heavy rainfall events triggering shallow landslides, are not reliable enough to be used directly for performing slope stability analysis. In an attempt to overcome the constrains by gap in time resolution between climate and hazard models, the paper presents an integrated suitable approach for estimating future variations in shallow landslide hazard and managing the uncertainties associated with climate and sub-daily downscaling models. The approach is tested on a small basin on Amalfi coast (southern Italy). Basing on available basin scale critical rainfall thresholds, the paper outlines how the projected changes in precipitation patterns could affect local slope stability magnitude scenarios with different relevances as effect of investigated time horizon and concentration scenario. The paper concludes with qualitative evaluations on the future effectiveness of the local operative warning system in a climate change framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analysed the evolution of landslide research and research foci in different countries. The data comprise 3105 landslide SCI articles published between January 1977 and June 2015 from the Web of Science. The data are extracted under interaction constraints of the journal title, category, and keywords. The complex network method is used for the analysis. First, from the perspective of topics and methods, the evolution is systematically assessed by generating a co-citation network of the articles and a semantic cluster analysis. Second, from the perspective of topics and landslide-related disasters, the focus in different countries is discussed by generating co-occurrence networks. These networks are the co-occurrence of the countries and keywords, and the co-occurrence of countries and landslide-related disaster phrases. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) landslide susceptibility analysis and methods of machine learning are popular research topics and methods, respectively. The topics change through time, and the article output is influenced by increasing landslide-related disasters, increasing economic losses and casualties, a desire for a more complete and accurate landslide inventory, and the use of effective methods, such as geographical information Science (GIS) and machine learning. (2) The research focus in each country is related with the country-specific disasters or economic costs caused by landslides to some degree. In addition to Italy and the USA, China is the country most commonly affected by landslides, and it should develop its own landslide database and complete in-depth studies of disaster mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a three-phase method that combines multi-source (i.e. topographic, thematic, monitoring) input data in a GIS environment to rank—at small (1:250,000) scale—administrative units (e.g. municipalities) based on their exposure to slow-moving landslide risk within a selected area (e.g. a region) and, accordingly, detect those primarily requiring mitigation measures. The method is applied in the Calabria region (southern Italy) where several municipalities are widely affected by slow-moving landslides that systematically cause damage to buildings and infrastructure networks resulting in significant economic losses. The results obtained are validated based on the information gathered from previous studies carried out at large (municipal) scale. The work undertaken represents a first, fundamental step of a wider circular approach that can profitably facilitate the decision makers in addressing the issue of the slow-moving landslide risk mitigation in a sustainable way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thickness and stratigraphic settings of soils covering slopes potentially control susceptibility to initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides due to their local effect on slope hydrological response. Notwithstanding the relevance of the assessment of hazard to shallow landsliding at a distributed scale by approaches based on a coupled modelling of slope hydrological response and slope stability, the spatial variability of soil thickness and stratigraphic settings are factors poorly considered in the literature. Under these premises, this paper advances the well-known case study of rainfall-induced shallow landslides involving ash-fall pyroclastic soils covering the peri-Vesuvian mountains (Campania, southern Italy). In such a unique geomorphological setting, the soil covering is formed by alternating loose ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and paleosols, with high contrasts in hydraulic conductivity and total thickness decreasing as the slope angle increases, thus leading to the establishment of lateral flow and an increase of pore water pressure in localised sectors of the slope where soil horizon thickness is less. In particular, we investigate the effects, on hillslope hydrological regime and slope stability, of irregular bedrock topography, spatial variability of soil thickness and vertical hydraulic heterogeneity of soil horizons, by using a coupled three-dimensional hydrological and a probabilistic infinite slope stability model. The modelling is applied on a sample mountain catchment, located on Sarno Mountains (Campania, southern Italy), and calibrated using physics-based rainfall thresholds derived from the literature. The results obtained under five simulated constant rainfall intensities (2.5, 5, 10, 20 and 40 mm h−1) show an increase of soil pressure head and major failure probability corresponding to stratigraphic and morphological discontinuities, where a soil thickness reduction occurs. The outcomes obtained from modelling match the hypothesis of the formation of lateral throughflow due to the effect of intense rainfall, which leads to the increase of soil water pressure head and water content, up to values of near-saturation, in narrow zones of the slope, such as those of downslope reduction of total soil thickness and pinching out of soil horizons. The approach proposed can be conceived as a further advance in the comprehension of slope hydrological processes at a detailed scale and their effects on slope stability under given rainfall and antecedent soil hydrological conditions, therefore in predicting the most susceptible areas to initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and the related I-D rainfall thresholds. Results obtained demonstrate the occurrence of a slope hydrological response depending on the spatial variability of soil thickness and leading to focus slope instability in specific slope sectors. The approach proposed is conceived to be potentially exportable to other slope environments for which a spatial modelling of soil thickness would be possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the most important hazards related to ground shaking, causing damages to the environment and, often, casualties. Therefore, it is important to assess the seismic performance of slopes, especially in the near fault regions, evaluating the permanent displacements induced by seismic loading. This paper applies a probabilistic approach to evaluate the seismic performance of slopes using an updated database of ground motions recorded during the earthquakes occurred in Italy. The main advantage of this approach is that of accounting for the aleatory variability of both ground motions and prediction of seismic-induced displacements of slopes. The results are presented in terms of hazard curves, showing the annual rate of exceedance of permanent slope displacement evaluated using ground motion data provided by a standard probabilistic hazard analysis and a series of semi-empirical relationships linking the permanent displacements of slopes to one or more ground motion parameters. The procedure has been implemented on a regional scale to produce seismic landslide hazard maps for the Irpinia district, in Southern Italy, characterised by a severe seismic hazard. Seismic landslide hazard maps represent a useful tool for practitioners and government agencies for a regional planning to identify and monitor zones that are potentially susceptible to earthquake-induced slope instability, thus requiring further detailed, site-specific studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The term debris flow is associated with a wide variety of phenomena as debris slides, debris torrents, debris floods, mudflows, mudslides, hyper-concentrated flows and lahars (in volcanic slopes). In historical times, they frequently occurred in Campania Region (Southern Italy) producing damage and casualties. In this paper, more than 200 events described as "debris flow" between 1924 and 2020 were collected. They are mainly located in the central sector of the region, which is characterized by pyroclastic deposits resting on steep carbonate and volcanic slopes and highly prone to hydrogeological hazards. Debris flow events registered in the region were classified as "gravity processes" (flow-like landslides, FL) or "fluvial processes" (flash floods, FF). This classification is fundamental for designing effective early warning systems and risk mitigation plans, since the two phenomena are triggered by different types of rainfall events and are responsible for damages of different magnitude. In this study, a large rainfall database was explored to identify the time scales and seasonality of the two classes of rainfall events, respectively triggering the two phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ancona landslide is a complex, deep-seated landslide displaying composite rotational-translational kinematisms and affecting a large urban area in the Ancona municipality on the Adriatic coast of central Italy. The landslide was reactivated with a large and destructive event on 13 December 1982 following a long period of precipitation and has remained active since. This paper focuses on the estimation of the landslide kinematics (more specifically, the horizontal and vertical components of average yearly velocity) for subsequent estimation of risk for a set of 39 buildings as presented in a companion paper. The study relies both on the processing of inclinometer and radar interferometer monitoring data through statistical procedures. Triggering factors are not investigated. Outputs from the two sets of monitoring data are compared quantitatively and qualitatively. The inherent limitations in available data are discussed. The validity of the quantitative results in the context of the risk estimation effort is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper illustrates the quantitative estimation of specific risk (i.e., the product of hazard and vulnerability) for 39 buildings located upon the Ancona landslide based on the characterization of landslide kinematics presented in a companion paper. Hazard is quantified based on intensity, intended as the damaging potential of the kinetic and/or geometric attributes of the landslide, and is expressed in terms of expected exceedance of preset cumulative displacement thresholds for a set of five reference time intervals, ranging from 1 to 100 years. The estimation of hazard relies sequentially on (1) Monte Carlo simulation of displacement series, with sampling distributions of average yearly displacement defined on the basis of the statistical processing of inclinometer and radar interferometer data; and (2) the subsequent spatialization of displacement using radial basis interpolation as described in the companion paper. The vulnerability of the set of buildings relies on a quantitative model in which vulnerability is a function of landslide intensity and the resilience of the buildings. Resilience is a function of a set of indicators including structural type, age, and foundation type and is temporally variable due to the progressive structural degradation. Hazard, vulnerability, and specific risk are estimated for the set of five aforementioned reference time intervals. The magnitude and temporal dependence of hazard, vulnerability, and specific risk are assessed critically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reconnaissance, mapping and analysis of kinematic features of slow-moving landslides evolving along medium-deep sliding surfaces in urban areas can be a difficult task due to the presence and interactions of/with anthropic structures/infrastructures and human activities that can conceal morphological signs of landslide activity. The paper presents an integrated approach to investigate the boundaries, type of movement, kinematics and interactions (in terms of damage severity distribution) with the built environment of a roto-translational slow-moving landslide affecting the historic centre of Lungro town (Calabria region, southern Italy). For this purpose, ancillary multi-source data (e.g. geological-geomorphological features and geotechnical properties of geomaterials), both conventional inclinometer monitoring and innovative non-invasive remote sensing (i.e. A-DInSAR) displacement data were jointly analyzed and interpreted to derive the A-DInSAR-geotechnical velocity (DGV) map of the landslide. This result was then cross-compared with detailed information available on the visible effects (i.e. crack pattern and width) on the exposed buildings along with possible conditioning factors to displacement evolution (i.e. remedial works, sub-services, etc.). The full integration of multi-source data available at the slope scale, by maximizing each contribution, provided a comprehensive outline of kinematic-geometric landslide features that were used to investigate the damage distribution and to detect, if any, anomalous locations of damage severity and relative possible causes. This knowledge can be used to manage landslide risk in the short term and, in particular, is propaedeutic to set up an advanced coupled geotechnical-structural model to simulate both the landslide displacements and the behavior of interacting buildings and, therefore, to implement appropriate risk mitigation strategies over medium/long period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows the results of a study aimed at quantitatively estimating—in terms of direct (repair) costs, at large scale (1:5000)—the slow-moving landslide risk to a road network assumed as undamaged as well as the consequences to the same network in damaged conditions. The newly conceived methodological approaches address some challenging tasks concerning (i) the hazard analysis, which is expressed in terms of probability of occurrence of slow-moving landslides with a given intensity level that, in turn, is established based on empirical fragility curves, and (ii) the consequence analysis, which brings to the generation of time-dependent vulnerability curves. Their applicability is successfully tested in a case study in the Campania region (southern Italy) for which both very high-resolution DInSAR data and information gathered from in situ surveys on the severity of damage sustained by the selected road sections are available. Benefits associated with the use of the obtained results in informed decision-making processes are finally discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical analyses have been often used for landslide susceptibility zoning at small to medium scale when relevant base and thematic maps are available. Since the beginning of the last decade, images remotely acquired by spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and processed via Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) proved extremely useful for non-invasive and non-destructive monitoring of displacements of the topographic surface. The present paper proposes an original procedure for the definition of the state of activity of slow-moving landslides via the combined use of multivariate statistical analyses and DInSAR data. The procedure is based on the following essential elements: distinction between terrain units used for computational purposes and the final zoning units; independent statistical and DInSAR analyses and activity models leading to first-level state of activity zoning maps; a consistency model between statistical and DInSAR analyses; two confidence and combination models leading, respectively, to second- or third-level state of activity zoning maps. The application in a test area including 19 municipalities in southern Italy, where slow-moving landslides are widespread and accurately mapped by using geomorphological criteria, allowed the generation of the three above-mentioned levels of zoning maps. The results were successfully crosschecked by exploiting a different DInSAR dataset and the results of previous works based on the use of slow-moving landslide-induced damage to facilities surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geometric and kinematic characterization of landslides affecting urban areas is a challenging goal that is routinely pursued via geological/geomorphological method and monitoring of ground displacements achieved by geotechnical and, more recently, advanced differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (A-DInSAR) data. Although the integration of all the above-mentioned methods should be planned a priori to be more effective, datasets resulting from the independent use of these different methods are commonly available, thus making crucial the need for their standardized a posteriori integration. In this regard, the present paper aims to provide a contribution by introducing a procedure that, taking into account the specific limits of geological/geomorphological analyses and deep/surface ground displacement monitoring via geotechnical and A-DInSAR data, allows the a posteriori integration of the results by exploiting their complementarity for landslide characterization. The approach was tested in the urban area of Lungro village (Calabria region, southern Italy), which is characterized by complex geological/geomorphological settings, widespread landslides and peculiar urban fabric. In spite of the different level of information preliminarily available for each landslide as result of the independent use of the three methods, the implementation of the proposed procedure allowed a better understanding and typifying of the geometry and kinematics of 50 landslides. This provided part of the essential background for geotechnical landslide models to be used for slope stability analysis within landslide risk mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large landslide occurred at Maierato (Vibo Valencia District), Southern Italy, on 15 February 2010, when rapid failure was produced after several days of preliminary movements. The landslide can be classified as a rotational slide with flowing of the mass. It occurred within a larger deep-seated gravitational movement area and was preconditioned for failure by the intrinsic geological weakness of the area. Actually, the in situ survey showed the presence of several ancient movement surfaces all around the urban area. The landslide-triggering factor was the increase in the groundwater flow, consequent to a period of heavy and prolonged rainfall. The aim of the paper is to explain the mechanism of occurrence of the February 2010 composite landslide, in order to assess the landslide hydrogeological susceptibility in the whole urban area of Maierato. For this reason, the present paper deals with: (1) identification of the landslide mechanism and triggering factors (2) slope stability back-analysis using a finite-difference-based shear strength reduction method, and (3) 3D groundwater flow modelling extended to the whole urban area both in pre- and post-failure conditions. The results show that the February 2010 composite landslide was triggered by a water table increase of about 15 m uphill the landslide scarp. This hydrogeological condition could be reached after the period of heavy and prolonged rainfall preceding the landslide event. Finally, based on the groundwater modelling in post-failure condition, a landslide hydrogeological susceptibility map was drawn for the all urban area of Maierato, showing the presence of extended areas exposed to hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last ten thousand years, the explosive activity of some volcanic centers has blanketed with pyroclastic soils the major part of Campania Region, Southern Italy. Experience shows that the sloping deposits may be mobilized by long-lasting precipitations, leading to rapid and sometimes catastrophic flow-type slope movements. This paper summarizes the present knowledge on this subject based on the results of both laboratory tests and experiments and on a review of the main data provided by field surveys. In particular, a careful examination and analysis of the available elements highlight the key role played by lithological and morphological details on failure and post-failure mechanisms, thus affecting landslide hazard. In fact, it is shown that deposition mode and grain size, slope angle, and morphology strongly affect the type of post-failure movement, which may take the features of a debris avalanche, of a debris flow, or of a flowslide and may lead (or not) to soil liquefaction, a mechanism that strongly affects both displacement rate and run-out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Seismic Microzonation of level 3 (SM3) is nowadays a world-wide accepted tool for the mitigation of seismic risk. The SM3 is a complex process involving different disciplines ranging from Geology and Applied Seismology to Structural and Geotechnical Engineering. The outcome of a SM3 is presented on a zoning map in terms of a selected ground shaking intensity parameter and susceptibility to main ground instability (soil liquefaction, settlements, landslides, fault ruptures). In an advanced SM3 study for a given area, four main interdisciplinary steps can be recognized: (1) definition of the reference input motions, (2) construction of the subsoil model, (3) performing of numerical analyses and computing of amplification factors, (4) identification of zones with different geotechnical hazard potential and drawing up of the SM3 map. After the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence, intensive studies have been performed to obtain SM3 maps in 137 municipalities most damaged by the earthquakes. The aim of these studies has been to obtain a clear background on site effects to perform a correct reconstruction of the municipalities. In the paper, main results and critical issues of the above-mentioned steps of SM3 procedure are discussed together with some remarks on the use of SM3 output in supporting seismic design for reconstruction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying the instability areas provides useful information about the recognition of the vulnerable zones and, thus, helps to potentially decrease the harm to the infrastructure and the hazard conditions in inhabited areas. In this regard, morphometric parameters and tectonic setting are widely employed in mapping, modelling and understanding of instability processes. The present study is aimed to analyse the combined effects of slope morphometry (slope gradient, slope curvature, local relief), of lithology, of drainage density and of tectonic setting on the distribution of landslides. The study area is located in the Mesima Basin that lies in the central part of the Calabria region (southern Italy). The morphometric analysis was carried out by geographic information system (GIS) techniques, whereas the geomorphic attributes were computed by a digital elevation model (DEM). The recognized landslides and faults were digitized and stored in a GIS geo-database that allowed the construction of relative density maps. A total of 1 991 landslides and 231 tectonic lineaments were recognized and mapped. The distribution of the collected data suggests that the occurrence of landslides is not random. Indeed, the research highlights as the lithology, the fault density, the slope gradient and the local relief play an important role in determining the landslide occurrence. The used approach is aimed to reinforce the knowledge about the validity of the application of morphometric analysis to the landslide susceptibility. The Mesima Basin is a poorly studied area of the Calabria from a geomorphological viewpoint. Indeed, previous researches focused mainly on geological and on tectonic aspects, as well as on instability phenomena in the Mesima surroundings. Thus, this paper takes a step forward with respect to previous studies because it augments the knowledge about the relationship between faults, morphometric features and the occurrence of landslide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports a case study of the interaction between a slow-moving landslide in clay soil and a railway tunnel protected by sheet pile walls, that crosses the landslide accumulation. The earthflow, that develops in the Southern Apennines, Italy, has been long studied and monitored by different organizations, such as the national railway company and the University of Basilicata. Since the investigated landslide and construction typologies are quite diffused in mountainous areas, the case study can be considered representative of a large number of other similar cases. Differently from other approaches proposed in the literature, the role of the landslide slip surface depth, changing in the directions longitudinal and transversal to the tunnel, and of structural connections, affecting the pile–tunnel system response, are accounted for in detail. Several numerical models are used to simulate the interaction between the sliding soil and tunnel. Different 2D and 3D geotechnical and structural models are adopted to reproduce stress–strain scenarios compatible with the experimental evidence. The modeling results indicate that the interaction varies considerably along the tunnel length because of the 3D geometry of the landslide, and is conditioned by the residual shear strength available on the slip surface. The expansion joints in the tunnel lining only marginally influence the stress in the structure because of the presence of the adjacent sheet pile walls, which enable considerable collaboration between the tunnel sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perceptions of risk are a key issue when seeking to develop systems, practices and policies to protect local populations. This is particularly evident when risk mitigation strategies involve non-structural measures such as relocation and warning systems which presuppose the active involvement of the communities in question. This study adopts an interdisciplinary approach to studying the perceptions, knowledge and opinions on landslide risk amongst residents in Sarno, a small town in Southern Italy which was hit by disastrous landslides on 5-6 May 1998. The paper presents the results of a survey conducted in the months of March, April and May 2013 using a purpose-designed questionnaire. The survey was conducted using face-to-face interviews with 100 residents, 60 of whom live inside the so-called 'red zone', a territory declared at high residual risk soon after the events of 1998. The questionnaire included questions relating to perceived risk exposure, trust in institutions responsible for risk management, evaluations of risk mitigation measures and the early-warning strategy. The results of the study clearly emerges, amongst other issues, that the organisms which are responsible for risk management in Sarno need to develop more effective communication strategies in order to transmit knowledge about the actions implemented to reduce landslide risk in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyse potential drivers of land use policy, in the form of building permits issued in Italian provinces. We first derive testable implications on the basis of a standard political agency framework, augmented to account for the impact of past environmental disasters (floods, landslides and earthquakes) and for the relevance of "building permits intensive" sectors in determining voters' support to an incumbent politician. We then perform an empirical analysis that tests theoretical predictions using a unique dataset covering Italy in the period 2001–2012. Our main conclusions show that the occurrence of floods and earthquakes decreases building permits, implying that a bad history in terms of these phenomena strengthens the importance of voters affected by past disasters. No corresponding evidence seems to emerge with reference to landslides. On the other hand, the relevance of the construction sector increases the number of building permits issued. Finally, when elections approach, the number of building permits issued grows, suggesting that incumbent politicians may distort land use policies in order to favour "brown" voters in periods close to elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a mass flow model that includes gravity force, material stresses, drag force and topography effects solving a set of hyperbolic partial differential equations by using a so-called depth-averaged technique. The model is non-linear and general enough to tackle various problems of interest for geophysics and environmental engineering, such as the dynamic evolution of flow-like avalanches, the dam break problem (involving only water flow) and the generation of tsunami waves by landslides. The model is based on a Eulerian fluid solver, using a second-order central scheme with a minmod-like limiter; is tested against a number of typical benchmark cases, including analytical solutions and experimental laboratory data; and also compared with other numerical codes. Through this model, we study a historical tsunamigenic event occurred in 1783 in Scilla, Italy, that resulted to be catastrophic with a toll exceeding 1500 fatalities. The landslide is reconstructed by a mixture debris flow, and results are compared with the observational data and other numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Vajont landslide took place in northern Italy on October 9th 1963 and caused a huge impulse wave to travel along the artificial reservoir and overtop the dam, flooding and devastating a considerable area along the Piave riverbed. In this event about 1900 people died, 1700 of them in the Piave Valley alone. The water depth of the wave in some points exceeded 50 m. Although the phenomenon is clearly tridimensional, the application of a pure 3D hydraulic numerical model to this wide and natural territory is very complicated. Recently, the authors have presented a numerical model of the impulse wave that wasted the Vajont basin as a consequence of the landslide Bosa and Petti (Environ Model Softw 26:406-418, ). In this paper, a 2DH numerical model has been applied to study the effects of the overtopping wave in the Piave Valley, in order to verify if the simplifications assumed by a 2DH model still make it possible to describe the evolution of the wave in the proper manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Active landslides are generally characterized by variations in displacement rate in response to cumulated precipitation. Velocities that are only exceeded in a limited number of days during the year might be considered as critical events, since they might determine, or prelude to, a significant evolution of the landslide. The purpose of this paper is to present a novel approach based on the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for assessing cumulated precipitation thresholds that can provide early warning for the occurrence of critical events such as the exceedance of rare displacement rates. The approach has been developed and tested in the Piagneto landslide, an active complex rock slide-debris slide in the Northern Apennines of Italy, for which a 5-year continuous surveying monitoring dataset is available. On the basis of the first 4 years of monitoring data (training dataset), threshold curves relating cumulative precipitation (mm) to precipitation moving windows (days) have been generated by using different benchmarks that, in literature, are used to estimate the maximum predictive performance of ROC curves. These threshold curves have been successfully validated using the last 1 year of monitoring data (validation dataset). They have then been used to simulate how they might help defining different early warning levels in due advance. The proposed methodology can be replicated in any landslide for which a monitoring dataset that includes recurrent acceleration events in response to precipitation is available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present preliminary results of the IPL project No. 198 'Multi-scale rainfall triggering models for Early Warning of Landslides (MUSE).' In particular, we perform an assessment of the geotechnical and hydrological parameters affecting the occurrence of landslides. The aim of this study is to improve the reliability of a physically based model high resolution slope stability simulator (HIRESSS) for the forecasting of shallow landslides. The model and the soil characterization have been tested in Northern Tuscany (Italy), along the Apennine chain, an area that is historically affected by shallow landslides. In this area, the main geotechnical and hydrological parameters controlling the shear strength and permeability of soils have been determined by in situ measurements integrated by laboratory analyses. Soil properties have been statistically characterized to provide more refined input data for the slope stability model. Finally, we have tested the ability of the model to predict the occurrence of shallow landslides in response to an intense meteoric precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with a quantitative risk analysis, performed using the rockfall risk management (RO.MA.) method, for a road affected by rockfalls. This approach allows evaluating the rockfall risk, also considering existing protection devices. Rockfall hazard and risk were assessed for an important and very busy road stretch linking Positano to Amalfi in the Campania region of southern Italy. An estimate of the rockfall return periods for assigned volume classes was obtained using the magnitude-frequency curves (MFCs) computed through the analysis of a rockfall inventory covering a time span from 1996 to 2008. For rockfall volumes of 0.1, 1.0, and 10 m, using a 2D trajectory simulating code, the involved kinetic energies and run-out distances of boulders that may hit the road were calculated. The risk, expressed as the annual probability of a fatal accident for the three rockfall hazard scenarios has been evaluated both without and with protection devices, respectively. The total final risk is given by the sum of partial risks related to the three scenarios. The analysis showed that regardless of whether there are any rockfall protection devices, the total risk remains almost constant. This is due to the wide spread of slopes protected with inadequate restraining metallic nets characterized by decreasing catching capacities, as possible rockfall magnitude increases. The individual risk is not acceptable, and some actions are requested in order to lower it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seismic crisis that hit Calabria (South Italy) since the beginning of 1783, lasted 3 years with strong earthquakes concentrated in the first 2 months, causing many fatalities and great destruction, as reported by several detailed historical reports. Following an earthquake that occurred on February 6, 1783, a mass with volume of about 6 Mm detached from the flank of Mount Pacì and collapsed into the sea. In 1 min, huge waves attacked the nearby village of Scilla and killed most of the people that had gathered in the wide shore named Marina Grande to escape from seismic danger. More than 1500 people died due to the tsunami, many buildings were destroyed. In the paper, such catastrophic event is studied by means of numerical models. First we reconstruct the initial sliding mass and compute its motion through a Lagrangian model; then, we simulate the tsunami generation, propagation and flooding on the coast of Scilla by means of a nonlinear shallow-water equations model. The results of the simulation are compared against the detailed description of the tsunami effects available from several historical accounts and are found to be in a very satisfactory agreement with the 6-8 m inundation height reported in the Marina Grande beach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite continuing technological advancement in hazard and vulnerability assessment, risk modelling and hazard mitigation techniques, losses to disasters associated with natural hazards continue and in some cases are increasing across Europe and worldwide. This paper focuses on the need to bridge the gap between technical solutions and the sociopolitical contexts in which these are produced, to better understand and create more effective risk management regimes. We do so with application of the science-policy co-production frame to landslide risk management in Italy. The methodology deployed included a desk study informed by semi-structured interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders at national, regional and municipal level. We propose a normative and analytical framework for transferring co-production into natural hazard research by presenting a matrix identifying four contexts within which co-production may unfold. The matrix is based on two axes, which distinguish between innovation and its absence in science and policy domains. We examine several examples of co-production, such as the water-soil integrated approach to risk management or the implementation of hazard/risk assessment. The results highlight that the insulation of science from the institutional context within which knowledge is produced and used is a very problematic issue. This often hinders the implementation of desirable policies and undermines the effectiveness of interventions. Moreover, innovation in science and policy does not automatically result in successful solutions for landslide risk management. Finally, results confirm the utility of co-production but also highlight methodological challenges associated with the introduction of this new conceptual paradigm into the well-structured communities of scientists and policy-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Many regions of the world have to date been affected by changes in precipitation trends since about 1950. In Southern Italy, empirical evidence has indicated a general increase in the number of heavy precipitation events, intensity, and frequency. These effects have important consequences for environmental risks such as floods, landslides, and land degradation. The latter includes both rates of soil erosion in upland cultivated areas and sediment delivered downstream. The increase of soil erosion reduces the national incomes obtained from cultivated lands and requires the availability of robust techniques to identify areas at risk. In this context, the use of fallout radionuclides (FRNs), combined with direct measurements of soil loss on experimental sites, can be an important tool to identify the main drivers of land degradation and to understand better the consequences of climate change on larger areas and on a long-term temporal scale. Materials and methods: A long-term plot experiment carried out in Southern Italy, involving direct observations of soil loss and the use of repeated 137Cs measurements, was performed to estimate soil erosion rates in agricultural areas during the last six decades. More specifically, 11 years of soil loss measurements obtained from four experimental plots were used to document soil erosion rates for the period comprised between 2006 and 2016. In addition, a sampling coring undertaken in four separate field campaigns in 2006, 2010, and 2017 was used to establish the reduction of 137Cs inventories within the same area and the corresponding estimates of erosion rates. Results and discussion: The 137Cs analyses related to these sampling campaigns allowed, at a first stage, estimates of soil erosion rates obtained for two different time windows ranging from the commencement of fallout in 1954 to the dates of sampling (2006 and 2017). The estimates related to the longer time window 1954–2017 are close to those provided by a traditional model (RUSLE) for the same period and provided a first validation of the 137Cs technique. The application of the so-called 137Cs re-sampling approach which enabled accurate estimates of soil erosion rates for the shorter period comprised between the two sampling campaigns (2006–2017) allowed a direct comparison with the direct observations of soil loss obtained for the same period. This comparison showed a good agreement between estimates and measurements of soil loss and allowed a reconstruction of the general trend of soil erosion rates during the last six decades. Conclusions: The overall results confirm an increasing trend of soil erosion rates in the study area during the last six decades. Moreover, the estimates of erosion rates provided by the traditional 137Cs technique are comparable with the corresponding estimates obtained with RUSLE suggesting that, in absence of deposition, the two methods provide similar results. Also, the 137Cs re-sampling technique proved to be very close to the measured data obtained for the same time window. These findings encourage the use of this strategy in the absence of direct observations of soil loss and suggest its adoption to investigate trends of erosion rate in larger areas and for long-term periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terraces are traditional engineered ecosystems that affect the hydro-geological equilibrium, slope stability, and local communities. The aims of this paper are (i) identifying environmental factors that affect terrace stability in the Amalfi Coast, (ii) defining agriculturalists' observations on environmental changes within that system and (iii) exploring potentiality of these observations to better define conservation strategies. All available data on physical and ecological factors recognized to affect the terrace system were collected and analyzed. Interviews were conducted with agriculturalists to obtain long-term observations on environmental factors that interact with this system. Landslides are more frequent where rainfall is high and during winter. Fires have an uneven annual distribution, with higher frequency during summers. Agriculturalists detailed complex interactions among environmental factors, economic elements, and terraces. These observations represent a valuable resource for defining causes and effects of abandonment and for better addressing conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A case study of a debris slide (estimated volume of about 35,000 m) is described in this paper. This slide occurred in April 2009 in the North Western Italian Alps (Aosta valley) and damaged the SR25 road along the Valgrisenche valley. Ground investigations started with severe safety and logistic issues being posed. Given the need to open as soon as possible the road, the design of the landslide stabilization works was carried out using a 'design as you go' approach. The stabilization measures were conceived to be flexible in order to allow for changes and integration during construction, in line with the progressive refinement of the geological-geotechnical slope model being developed. Back analysis by means of the limit equilibrium method (LEM) and the finite element method (FEM) was used. Groundwater level rise following heavy rainfall and spring snow melting was found to be the main cause of the debris slide. The stabilization works were designed by using both the LEM and FEM methods. The stability conditions of the engineered slope were assessed based on the available performance monitoring data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents mineralogical, chemical, and textural data for the Mount Epomeo Green Tuff and an associated polymictic breccia on Ischia Island, Italy with the purpose of defining the alteration history of the two units and the emplacement origin of the polymictic breccia. Our results indicate that the Green Tuff trachytic ignimbrite experienced three alteration events that produced the following mineral assemblages: (1) phillipsite, randomly interstratified (R0) illite/smectite (I/S), Fe-illite, and smectite (in situ Green Tuff); (2) chabazite, phillipsite, R0 I/S, and Fe-illite (proximal facies Green Tuff at Scarrupata di Barano); and (3) analcime, authigenic K-feldspar, Fe-illite, R0 I/S, and smectite (clasts of Green Tuff in polymictic breccia). Phillipsite, chabazite, and R0 I/S within the in situ and proximal facies Green Tuff indicate low-temperature alteration ( T < 70 °C). The proximal facies Green Tuff contains a vertical mineral zonation, suggesting alteration in an open hydrologic system. Analcime and authigenic K-feldspar assemblages in Green Tuff clasts within the polymictic breccia indicate higher temperature ( T > 70 °C) alteration within a mostly closed chemical system. These data suggest that the polymictic breccia represents a debris avalanche deposit created by a catastrophic volcanic collapse, which was associated with low-temperature hydrothermal alteration and thus structural weakening of the volcano. The debris avalanche that produced the polymictic breccia on Ischia may be related to nearby massive debris avalanche deposits recently discovered offshore of southern Ischia. The young age of the polymictic breccia (5.7-8.6 ka) and the possibility of its catastrophic emplacement indicate an additional volcanic hazard for Ischia Island. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the territory of the Campania region (southern Italy), critical rainfall events periodically trigger dangerous fast slope movements involving ashy and pyroclastic soils originated by the explosive phases of the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcano and deposited along the surrounding mountain ranges. In this paper, an integration of engineering-geological and geophysical measurements is presented to characterize unsaturated pyroclastic samples collected in a test area on the Sarno Mountains (Salerno and Avellino provinces, Campania region). The laboratory analyses were aimed at defining both soil water retention and electrical resistivity curves versus water content. From the matching of the experimental data, a direct relationship between electrical resistivity and matric suction is retrieved for the investigated soil horizons typical of an ash-fall pyroclastic succession. The obtained relation turns out to be helpful in characterizing soils up to close saturation, which is a critical condition for the trigger of slope failure. In such a regime, the water content and the matric suction have small variations, while electrical resistivity variations can be appreciated in a larger range of values. For this reason, besides suction measurements on very small soil volumes through classical tensiometers, our analyses suggest the direct monitoring of in situ electrical resistivity values as an effective tool to recognise the hydrological state of larger and more representative soil volumes and to improve early warning of dangerous slope movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a research concerning available historical information about natural hazards (landslides and floods) and consequent disasters in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano, in Northern Italy. A geo-referenced database, collecting information till 2008, was designed with the aim of using available data of historical events for hazard estimation and the definition of risk scenarios as a basis for Civil Protection planning and emergency management purposes. This database and related statistics about landslides and floods are shown, and a brief overview of historical disasters caused by natural hazards in the study area is presented. A case study showing how useful the database can be to define a simple but realistic scenario is described. Information availability and reliability is discussed and possible uncertainties are underlined. The study shows that collecting and making use of historical information for the definition of hypothetical scenarios and the evaluation of territorial threats is a fundamental source of knowledge to deal with future emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Little is known about the vulnerability to landslides, despite landslides causing frequent and widespread damage to the population and the built-up environment in many areas of the world. Lack of information about vulnerability to landslides limits our ability to determine landslide risk. This paper provides information on the vulnerability of buildings and roads to landslides in Umbria, central Italy. Information on 103 landslides of the slide and slide-earth flow types that have resulted in damage to buildings and roads at 90 sites in Umbria is used to establish dependencies between the area of the landslide and the vulnerability to landslides. The dependencies obtained are applied in the hills surrounding the town of Collazzone, in central Umbria, an area for which a detailed landslide inventory map is available. By exploiting the landslide inventory and the established vulnerability curves, the geographical distribution of the vulnerability to landslides is mapped and statistics of the expected damage are calculated. Reliability and limits of the vulnerability thresholds and of the obtained vulnerability assessment are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Landslides of the flow type involving granular geo-materials frequently result in casualties and damage to property because of the long travel distance and the high velocities that these may attain. This was true for the events that took place in Campania Region (Southern Italy) in May 1998, involving pyroclastic soils originating from explosive activities of the Somma-Vesuvius volcano. Although these phenomena have frequently affected various areas of the Campania region over the last few centuries, there were no useful geological and geotechnical references available in the aftermath of the May 1998 events. For this reason Salerno University, which was involved in the scientific management of the emergency, addressed the issue of acquiring data on the geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological features of the slopes where the landslides had taken place. The information acquired made it possible to set up a slope evolution model that is able to interpret, from a geological point of view, past and more recent landslides that had occurred in the same area. As preliminary geotechnical analyses had already validated the above model, more detailed investigations were performed both on the pore pressure regimen of the covers still in place as well as on the physical and mechanical properties of pyroclastic soils, in saturated and unsaturated conditions. The present paper begins by discussing the data acquired during the .rst phase of the studies and then goes on to illustrate the laboratory results so far obtained with the aid of approximate procedures. These help advance our knowledge of pyroclastic soils within a reasonable time frame, thus improving landslide triggering analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslide activity responds to rapid environmental changes and represents a relevant geoindicator in mountainous or hilly areas. This paper discusses the socio-economic relevance of landslide hazard in Italy and the problems encountered in establishing relationships between landslide frequency, climate and vegetation changes at different time scales. Landslides blocking a river channel have been carefully taken into account because they are usually characterized by high intensities (with regard to the involved masses and movement velocities) and their occurrences are often datable via radiocarbon dating. This is due to the recovery of organic matter in the landslide dammed lakes. For these reasons they can be considered important geoindicators in the wider category of slope failures. The marked effects of the anthropogenic activity on slope instability processes in the last 50 years are discussed with reference to two case histories: the Chianti hills in Tuscany and the Cinque Terre National Park in Liguria. Finally, two novel techniques of remote sensing are proposed as tools for a systematic monitoring of slope instability at different time and spatial scales. Both techniques are based on the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technology and differ on the type of platform (satellite and ground-based) used to acquire data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intense rainfall in May 1998 and December 1999 caused disastrous landslides in the Sarno-Quindici and Cervinara areas (Campania, southern Italy). The landslides began with slips of the local pyroclastic covers mantling the carbonate relief and then evolved into debris flows/avalanches. The study discussed in this paper used a numerical modelling approach to assess the influence of man-made cuts on the stability conditions of pyroclastic covers. The model that was developed took into account initial failure conditions in order to better simulate the impact of man-made cuts along the slopes, with or without water seepage into the permeable pumiceous layers of the pyroclastic multilayer. Numerical analysis of stress-strain field clearly showed that tracks or geomorphological discontinuities had a negative impact on the multilayer stability conditions. Consequently, preservation of this vulnerable environment requires correct forest management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Old, large, and dormant landslides were unexpectedly found in southeastern Sicily, a territory of known seismicity but commonly considered as landslide-free or almost so. Purposely undertaken investigations revealed that: (1) these landslides are scarcely compatible with the local geoclimatic environment; (2) they usually show low-angle basal shear surfaces, despite the fact that the properties of the forming material are generally good; (3) they fulfill the known relationships between earthquake magnitude and epicenter–landslide distance; (4) sources coeval with high-energy historical earthquakes occurred in 1169, 1542 and 1693 testify to the occurrence of earthquake-triggered landsliding; and (5) documentary material (presented here for the first time) correlates with certainty a specific landslide to the 1693 earthquake. This geological and historical evidence, accompanied by the absence of contrasting elements, leads us to conclude that these landslides are earthquake-triggered. Because of their typological and geometrical characteristics, nearly all landslides can be reactivated, which has serious implications in terms of hazard, particularly with respect to lines of communication. Obviously, every action aimed at preventing or mitigating risks must start from the awareness of the causative processes, a condition substantially unsatisfied at the moment in SE Sicily. The paper concludes by emphasizing the opportunity not to trust excessively beliefs that, although shared, have never been really checked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key component of disaster management and infrastructure organization is predicting cumulative deformations caused by landslides. One of the critical points in predicting deformation is to consider the spatio-temporal relationships and interdependencies between the features, such as geological, geomorphological, and geospatial factors (predisposing factors). Using algorithms that create temporal and spatial connections is suggested in this study to address this important point. This study proposes a modified graph convolutional network (GCN) that incorporates a long and short-term memory (LSTM) network (GCN-LSTM) and applies it to the Moio della Civitella landslides (southern Italy) for predicting cumulative deformation. In our proposed deep learning algorithms (DLAs), two types of data are considered, the first is geological, geomorphological, and geospatial information, and the second is cumulative deformations obtained by permanent scatterer interferometry (PSI), with the first investigated as features and the second as labels and goals. This approach is divided into two processing strategies where: (a) Firstly, extracting the spatial interdependency between paired data points using the GCN regression model applied to velocity obtained by PSI and data depicting controlling predisposing factors; (b) secondly, the application of the GCN-LSTM model to predict cumulative landslide deformation (labels of DLAs) based on the correlation distance obtained through the first strategy and determination of spatio-temporal dependency. A comparative assessment of model performance illustrates that GCN-LSTM is superior and outperforms four different DLAs, including recurrent neural networks (RNNs), gated recurrent units (GRU), LSTM, and GCN-GRU. The absolute error between the real and predicted deformation is applied for validation, and in 92% of the data points, this error is lower than 4 mm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely and systematic collection of landslide information after a triggering event is pivotal for the definition of landslide trends in response to climate change. On September 15, 2022, a large part of central Italy, particularly Marche and Umbria regions, was struck by an anomalous rainfall event that showed characteristics of a persistent convective system. An extraordinary cumulated rainfall of 419 mm was recorded by a rain gauge in the area in only 9 h. The rainfall triggered 1687 landslides in the area affected by the peak rainfall intensity and caused widespread flash floods and floods in the central and lower parts of the catchments. In this work, we describe the characteristics of the landslides identified during a field survey started immediately after the event. Most of the mass movements are shallow, and many are rapid (i.e., debris flows, earth flows) and widely affecting the road network. Landslide area spans from a few tens of square meters to 105 m2, with a median value of 87 m2. Field evidence revealed diffuse residual risk conditions, being a large proportion of landslides located in the immediate vicinity of infrastructures. Besides reporting the spatial distribution of landslides triggered by an extreme rainfall event, the data collected on landslides can be used to make comparisons with the distribution of landslides in the past, validation of landslide susceptibility models, and definition of the general interaction between landslides and structures/infrastructures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Italy landslides are widespread natural phenomena causing a significant number of fatalities and huge economic losses throughout the country every year. Information on the spatial and temporal distribution of landslides at national scale is critical for developing landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk maps, as well as, more generally, for decision making in landslide risk management.Description: The paper presents, after a brief review on global and national landslide databases, a new geo-referenced catalog of recent landslides affecting the Italian territory. The catalog, called Franeitalia, includes both fatal landslide events and events that did not produce physical harm to people. It has been developed consulting online news sources from 2010 onwards. The following seven steps have been performed to define and populate the catalog: i) selection of news sources; ii) identification of effective search keywords; iii) collection of relevant news articles; iv) identification of landslide categories; v) definition of catalog fields; vi) information mining from news articles; vii) geo-referencing of the events. Landslide events are classified considering two numerosity categories and three consequence categories. The numerosity categories are: single landslide events (SLE), for records only reporting one landslide; and areal landslide events (ALE), for records referring to multiple landslides triggered by the same cause in the same geographic area. Both SLEs and ALEs are divided in three consequence classes according to whether the event produced victims and/or missing people (C1, very severe), injured persons and/or evacuations (C2, severe), or did not cause any physical harm to people (C3, minor). Information on the landslide events collected in the catalog always includes: data on the location of the event, day of occurrence of the landslide (s), source (s) of information, and number of landslides in case of areal events. Additional information may include: onset and duration of the landslide event, landslide characteristics, phase of activity, details on the consequences.Conclusions: Reports and statistics on the landslides included in the catalog are presented highlighting: the main figures of the landslide inventory, currently spanning from the 2010 to 2017 and including 8931 landslides; and time-dependent national and regional trends, with a focus on the consequences induced by the events. The paper also compares and discusses the figures in relation to other catalogs reporting recent landslides that occurred in the Italian territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical/geometric methods rely on simple geometrical connections between some landslide parameters and the runout distance reached by the displaced material. Despite the extreme simplification of the dynamic of this landslide typology, those methods can provide useful information about the propagation of this shallow and fast landslide typology, joining the reliability of the results with easiness of use. The objective of this work is to compare the efficacy of different geometric relationships for the identification of the runout distances in a debris- and mud-flows-prone test area located in Sicily, southern Italy, where several events were analyzed, and a consistent set of data was collected and processed. Notwithstanding some uncertainties in the methodological approach and not negligible scattering between expected and observed runout distances, the use of such geometric approaches, together with the evaluation of kinematic parameters such as velocity and kinetic energy, can significantly boost the implementation of site-specific analyses for a more detailed definition of landslides susceptibility at a local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Campania region (southern Italy), sloping pyroclastic surfaces in partially saturated conditions are frequently affected by flow-like landslides and shallow slip. In this context, safeguarding human life is entrusted to early warning systems (EWSs), typically based on empirical precipitation intensity-duration thresholds that may suffer from missed and false alarms. Indeed, the consequences of heavy rainfall depend on the hydraulic conditions in the soil before the rainstorm. If this aspect is neglected, precipitation intensity-duration thresholds can fail. However, although the current hydraulic condition in the soil is a discriminating factor, it is rarely measured and taken into account. In this regard, the present study focuses on the assessment of the role of the groundwater conditions for the initiation of shallow landslides, and it may be the first step towards the implementation of an innovative early warning system. At this aim, a numerical approach to reproduce the current hydraulic condition in the slope is presented. This study is based on the back-analysis of two debris flows that occurred in the Campania region by means of uncoupled hydromechanical numerical modelling. The stratigraphy and hydromechanical characteristics of the soil layers are known due to surveys and investigations carried out at an experimental test site set up a few kilometres from the two debris flows that occurred. The results show that in the slopes examined, the hydraulic state in the soil before landslide triggering was correctly reproduced through an infiltration analysis starting a few months before, in which rainfall recorded on site was imposed as an entering flow at ground level. Moreover, it was shown that the water storage in the entire loose soil cover was an effective indicator of the average hydraulic state of the slope; more than local variables, such as matric suction and water content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslide risk assessment is fundamental in identifying risk areas, where mitigation measures must be introduced. Most of the existing methods are based on susceptibility assessment strongly site-specific and require information often unavailable for damage quantification. This study proposes a simplified methodology, specific for rainfall-induced shallow landslides, that tries to overcome both these limitations. Susceptibility assessed from a physically-based model SLIP (shallow landslides instability prediction) is combined with distance derived indices representing the interference probability with elements at risk in the anthropized environment. The methodology is applied to Gioiosa Marea municipality (Sicily, south Italy), where shallow landslides are often triggered by rainfall causing relevant social and economic damage because of their interference with roads. SLIP parameters are first calibrated to predict the spatial and temporal occurrence of past surveyed phenomena. Susceptibility is then assessed in the whole municipality and validated by comparison with areas affected by slide movements according to the regional databases of historical landslides. It is shown that all the detected areas are covered by points where the SLIP safety factor ranges between 0 and 2. Risk is finally assessed after computation of distances from elements at risk, selected from the land use map. In this case, results are not well validated because of lack of details in the available regional hydrogeological plan, both in terms of extension and information. Further validation of the proposed interference indices is required, e.g., with studies of landslide propagation, which can also allow considerations on the provoked damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]