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Extreme precipitation events lead to dramatic impacts on society and the situation will worsen under climate change. Decision-makers need reliable estimates of future changes as a basis for effective adaptation strategies, but projections at local scale from regional climate models (RCMs) are highly uncertain. Here we exploit the km-scale convection-permitting multi-model (CPM) ensemble, generated within the FPS Convection project, to provide new understanding of the changes in local precipitation extremes and related uncertainties over the greater Alpine region. The CPM ensemble shows a stronger increase in the fractional contribution from extreme events than the driving RCM ensemble during the summer, when convection dominates. We find that the CPM ensemble substantially reduces the model uncertainties and their contribution to the total uncertainties by more than 50%. We conclude that the more realistic representation of local dynamical processes in the CPMs provides more reliable local estimates of change, which are essential for policymakers to plan adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Providing reliable information on climate change at local scale remains a challenge of first importance for impact studies and policymakers. Here, we propose a novel hybrid downscaling method combining the strengths of both empirical statistical downscaling methods and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). In the longer term, the final aim of this tool is to enlarge the high-resolution RCM simulation ensembles at low cost to explore better the various sources of projection uncertainty at local scale. Using a neural network, we build a statistical RCM-emulator by estimating the downscaling function included in the RCM. This framework allows us to learn the relationship between large-scale predictors and a local surface variable of interest over the RCM domain in present and future climate. The RCM-emulator developed in this study is trained to produce daily maps of the near-surface temperature at the RCM resolution (12 km). The emulator demonstrates an excellent ability to reproduce the complex spatial structure and daily variability simulated by the RCM, particularly how the RCM refines the low-resolution climate patterns. Training in future climate appears to be a key feature of our emulator. Moreover, there is a substantial computational benefit of running the emulator rather than the RCM, since training the emulator takes about 2 h on GPU, and the prediction takes less than a minute. However, further work is needed to improve the reproduction of some temperature extremes, the climate change intensity and extend the proposed methodology to different regions, GCMs, RCMs, and variables of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. A pronounced inter-model spread among the RCSMs emerges for the projected changes in the cyclone adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as Ionian Sea and Iberian Peninsula. The differences observed appear to be determined by the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM) and influenced by the RCSM physics and internal variability. These results point to the importance of (1) better characterizing the range of plausible futures by relying on ensembles of models that explore well the existing diversity of GCMs and RCSMs as well as the climate natural variability and (2) better understanding the driving mechanisms of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

17 Spatial distribution of the annual mean number of cells per year above the 10 mm threshold during the extended fall (SOND) for CNRM-AROME and COMEPHORE on the tracking domain for several time periods The original article has been corrected. 11 Spatial distribution of the annual mean number of cells per year above the 10 mm threshold during the extended fall (SOND) between 1997-2016 for CNRM-AROME and COMEPHORE on the tracking domain Graph: Fig. [Extracted from the article]

South-East France is a region often affected by heavy precipitating events the characteristics of which are likely to be significantly impacted in the future climate. In this study, cnrm-arome, a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model with a 2.5 km horizontal resolution is compared to its forcing model, the Regional Climate Model aladin-climate at a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km, self-driven by the era-interim reanalysis. An hourly observation dataset with a resolution of 1 km, comephore, is used in order to assess simulated surface precipitation from a seasonal to hourly scale. The representation of the spatial pattern of fall precipitation climatology is improved by cnrm-arome. It also shows a clear added value with respect to aladin-climate through the improvement of the localization and intensity of extreme rainfall on a daily and hourly time scale on both fine and coarse spatial scales (2.5, 12.5 and 50 km). cnrm-arome in particular is able to simulate intense rainfall on lowlands and makes sub-daily rainfall events more intense than aladin-climate. cnrm-arome still underestimates very extreme precipitation from above 30 mm/h or 230 mm/day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the differences of future climate changes over Europe in summer as projected by state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCM, from the EURO-Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) and by their forcing global climate models (GCM, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and study the associated physical mechanisms. We show that important discrepancies at large-scales exist between global and regional projections. The RCMs project at the end of the 21st century over a large area of Europe a summer warming 1.5–2 K colder, and a much smaller decrease of precipitation of 5%, versus 20% in their driving GCMs. The RCMs generally simulate a much smaller increase in shortwave radiation at surface, which directly impacts surface temperature. In addition to differences in cloud cover changes, the absence of time-varying anthropogenic aerosols in most regional simulations plays a major role in the differences of solar radiation changes. We confirm this result with twin regional simulations with and without time-varying anthropogenic aerosols. Additionally, the RCMs simulate larger increases in evapotranspiration over the Mediterranean sea and larger increases/smaller decreases over land, which contribute to smaller changes in relative humidity, with likely impacts on clouds and precipitation changes. Several potential causes of these differences in evapotranspiration changes are discussed. Overall, this work suggests that the current EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble does not capture the upper part of the climate change uncertainty range, with important implications for impact studies and the adaptation policies that they inform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), have been observed to perturb significantly marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world. Here, we propose a detection method for long-lasting and large-scale summer MHWs, using a local, climatological 99th percentile threshold, based on present-climate (1976–2005) daily SST. To assess their future evolution in the Mediterranean Sea we use, for the first time, a dedicated ensemble of fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models from the Med-CORDEX initiative and a multi-scenario approach. The models appear to simulate well MHW properties during historical period, despite biases in mean and extreme SST. In response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing, the events become stronger and more intense under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. By 2100 and under RCP8.5, simulations project at least one long-lasting MHW every year, up to three months longer, about 4 times more intense and 42 times more severe than present-day events. They are expected to occur from June-October and to affect at peak the entire basin. Their evolution is found to occur mainly due to an increase in the mean SST, but increased daily SST variability also plays a noticeable role. Until the mid-21st century, MHW characteristics rise independently of the choice of the emission scenario, the influence of which becomes more evident by the end of the period. Further analysis reveals different climate change responses in certain configurations, more likely linked to their driving global climate model rather than to the individual model biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean basins can be impacted by severe floods caused by extreme rainfall, and there is a growing awareness about the possible increase in these heavy rainfall events due to climate change. In this study, the climate change impacts on extreme daily precipitation in 102 catchments covering the whole Mediterranean basin are investigated using nonstationary extreme value model applied to annual maximum precipitation in an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Euro-CORDEX experiment. Results indicate contrasted trends, with significant increasing trends in Northern catchments and conversely decreasing trends in Southern catchments. For most cases, the time of signal emergence for these trends is before the year 2000. The same spatial pattern is obtained under the two climate scenarios considered (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and in most RCM simulations, suggesting a robust climate change signal. The strongest multi-model agreement concerns the positive trends, which can exceed + 20% by the end of the twenty-first century in some simulations, impacting South France, North Italy, and the Balkans. For these areas, society-relevant strong impacts of such Mediterranean extreme precipitation changes could be expected in particular concerning flood-related damages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate models (RCMs) constitute a powerful tool to study and understand climate variability and change at local scales. Nevertheless, to correctly interpret regional climate simulations, a number of uncertainties need to be considered. In this study, we investigate the so-called Internal Variability (IV) of an RCM. The IV can be defined as the degree of irreproducibility in an RCM solution observed when it is conducted by the same lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) but initialised from different initial states. The main goal of this work is to investigate how the IV affects the cyclone tracks simulated by an RCM over a Mediterranean domain. For standard variables such as sea level pressure, 2 m temperature and precipitation, our results over the Mediterranean region are consistent with studies conducted over other geographical domains: the IV is stronger at the easternmost part of the domain, where the control exerted by the LBCs is weaker; the IV shows a strong seasonal dependence, reaching larger values in summer than in winter. We show here that the IV values associated with the density of cyclone tracks are much stronger than for the other documented variables, reaching more than 50 % of the estimated total variability. Concerning the cyclone characteristics, long travelling tracks are associated to a greatest IV. Within the latter cyclone category, the fast moving cyclones seems to exhibit also larger IV values. A secondary IV maximum is observed for static cyclones with short travelling distances (thermal lows) during the warm season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980-2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007-2013. Then a 1980-2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medicanes are cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea having a tropical-like structure but a rather small size, that can produce significant damage due to the combination of intense winds and heavy precipitation. Future climate projections, performed generally with individual atmospheric climate models, indicate that the intensity of the medicanes could increase under climate change conditions. The availability of large ensembles of high resolution and ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, performed in MedCORDEX and EURO-CORDEX projects, represents an opportunity to improve the assessment of the impact of climate change on medicanes. As a first step towards such an improved assessment, we analyze the ability of the RCMs used in these projects to reproduce the observed characteristics of medicanes, and the impact of increased resolution and air-sea coupling on their simulation. In these storms, air-sea interaction plays a fundamental role in their formation and intensification, a different mechanism from that of extra-tropical cyclones, where the baroclinic instability mechanism prevails. An observational database, based on satellite images combined with high resolution simulations (Miglietta et al. in Geophys Res Lett 40:2400-2405, 2013), is used as a reference for evaluating the simulations. In general, the simulated medicanes do not coincide on a case-by-case basis with the observed medicanes. However, observed medicanes with a high intensity and relatively long duration of tropical characteristics are better replicated in simulations. The observed spatial distribution of medicanes is generally well simulated, while the monthly distribution reveals the difficulty of simulating the medicanes that first appear in September after the summer minimum in occurrence. Increasing the horizontal resolution has a systematic and generally positive impact on the frequency of simulated medicanes, while the general underestimation of their intensity is not corrected in most cases. The capacity of a few models to better simulate the medicane intensity suggests that the model formulation is more important than reducing the grid spacing alone. A negative intensity feedback is frequently the result of air-sea interaction for tropical cyclones in other basins. The introduction of air-sea coupling in the present simulations has an overall limited impact on medicane frequency and intensity, but it produces an interesting seasonal shift of the simulated medicanes from autumn to winter. This fact, together with the analysis of two contrasting particular cases, indicates that the negative feedback could be limited or even absent in certain situations. We suggest that the effects of air-sea interaction on medicanes may depend on the oceanic mixed layer depth, thus increasing the applicability of ocean-atmosphere coupled RCMs for climate change analysis of this kind of cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to assess the skill of regional climate models (RCMs) at reproducing the climatology of Mediterranean cyclones. Seven RCMs are considered, five of which were also coupled with an oceanic model. All simulations were forced at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for a common 20-year period (1989-2008). Six different cyclone tracking methods have been applied to all twelve RCM simulations and to the ERA-Interim reanalysis in order to assess the RCMs from the perspective of different cyclone definitions. All RCMs reproduce the main areas of high cyclone occurrence in the region south of the Alps, in the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Seas, as well as in the areas close to Cyprus and to Atlas mountains. The RCMs tend to underestimate intense cyclone occurrences over the Mediterranean Sea and reproduce 24-40 % of these systems, as identified in the reanalysis. The use of grid nudging in one of the RCMs is shown to be beneficial, reproducing about 60 % of the intense cyclones and keeping a better track of the seasonal cycle of intense cyclogenesis. Finally, the most intense cyclones tend to be similarly reproduced in coupled and uncoupled model simulations, suggesting that modeling atmosphere-ocean coupled processes has only a weak impact on the climatology and intensity of Mediterranean cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A performance analysis of the NEMOMED8 ocean regional circulation model was undertaken for the Adriatic Sea during the period of 1961-2012, focusing on two mechanisms, dense water formation (DWF) and the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), which drive interannual and decadal variability in the basin. The model was verified based on sea surface temperature and sea surface height satellite measurements and long-term in situ observations from several key areas. The model qualitatively reproduces basin-scale processes: thermohaline-driven cyclonic circulation and freshwater surface outflow along the western Adriatic coast, dense water dynamics, and the inflow of Ionian and Levantine waters to the Adriatic. Positive temperature and salinity biases are reported; the latter are particularly large along the eastern part of the basin, presumably because of the inappropriate introduction of eastern Adriatic rivers into the model. The highest warm temperature biases in the vertical direction were found in dense-water-collecting depressions in the Adriatic, indicating either an inappropriate quantification of DWF processes or temperature overestimation of modelled dense water. The decadal variability in the thermohaline properties is reproduced better than interannual variability, which is considerably underestimated. The DWF rates are qualitatively well reproduced by the model, being larger when preconditioned by higher basin-wide salinities. Anticyclonic circulation in the northern Ionian Sea was modelled only during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient. No other reversals of circulation that could be linked to BiOS-driven changes were modelled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics of the mesoscale Mistral and Tramontane winds under changing climate conditions are of great interest for risk assessments. In this study, a classification algorithm is applied to identify Mistral and Tramontane-permitting sea-level pressure patterns, thus allowing for estimates of their future characteristics. Five simulations with three regional climate models on a 0.44 $$^\circ$$ grid and five global circulation models are assessed for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Regional climate simulations driven by ERA-Interim are used to test the classification algorithm and to estimate its accuracy. The derived Mistral and Tramontane time series are discussed. The results for the ERA-Interim period show that the classification algorithm and the regional climate models work well in terms of the number of Mistral and Tramontane days per year, but the results overestimate the average length of such events. For both the RCPs, only small changes in Mistral frequency were found in both regional and global climate simulations. Most simulations show a decrease in Tramontane frequencies and average period lengths during the 21st century. Regional climate simulations using RCP8.5 show fewer Tramontane events than those using RCP4.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A hindcast experiment of the Mediterranean present-day climate is performed using a fully-coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Regional Climate Model (AORCM) for the Mediterranean basin. The new model, called LMDz-NEMO-Med, is composed of LMDz4-regional as atmospheric component and of NEMOMED8 as oceanic component. This AORCM equilibrates freely, without any flux adjustment, neither in fresh water nor in heat. At its atmospheric lateral boundary conditions, it is driven by ERA-40 data from 1958 to 2001, after a spin-up of 40 years in coupled configuration. The model performance is assessed and compared with available observational datasets. The model skill in reproducing mean state and inter-annual variability of main atmospheric and oceanic surface fields is in line with that of state-of-the-art AORCMs. Considering the ocean behaviour, the inter-annual variations of the basin-scale heat content are in very good agreement with the observations. The model results concerning salt content could not be adequately validated. High inter-annual variability of deep convection in the Gulf of Lion is simulated, with 53 % of convective winters, representative of the present climate state. The role of different factors influencing the deep convection and its inter-annual variability is examined, including dynamic and hydrostatic ocean preconditioning and atmospheric surface forcing. A conceptual framework is outlined and validated in linking the occurrence of deep convection to the efficiency of the integrated surface buoyancy fluxes along the winter season to mix the initially stratified averaged water column down to the convective threshold depth. This simple framework (based only on 2 independent variables) is able to explain 60 % (resp. 69 %) of inter-annual variability of the deep water formation rate (resp. maximum mixed layer depth) for the West Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) formation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unfortunately, the article "Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM‑AROME Convection‑Permitting Regional Climate Model", written by Quentin Fumière was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on 24 July 2019 without open access with incorrect copyright holder as "© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]