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Drastic changes were detected in glacial systems of the Antarctic Peninsula in the last decades. The observed phenomena comprise the disintegration of ice shelves, acceleration and thinning of glaciers, and retreat of glacier fronts. However, due to the lack of consistent systematic observations in particular of the higher parts of the glacial systems, it is difficult to predict further responses of the Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to climatic change. The present paper analyses spatial and temporal variations of changes in the dry-snow line altitude on the Antarctic Peninsula as extracted from a time series (1992–2005) of ERS-1/2 SAR and Envisat ASAR data. Upward changes in dry-snow line altitude were observed in general, and are attributed to extreme high-temperature events impacting the central plateaus of the Antarctic Peninsula and the increasing duration of warming periods. A mean decrease in dry-snow line altitude was detected on the west side of the peninsula and is identified as a response to recorded increase in precipitation and accumulation. These results validate the capability of SAR data for deriving superficial parameters of glaciers to be used as indicators of climatic changes in high-latitude regions where operational restrictions limit conventional meteorological observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Peninsula is under pressure from non-native plants and this risk is expected to increase under climate warming. Establishment and subsequent range expansion of non-native plants depend in part on germination ability under Antarctic conditions, but quantifying these processes has yet to receive detailed study. Viability testing and plant growth responses under simulated Antarctic soil surface conditions over an annual cycle show that 16 non-native species, including grasses, herbs, rushes and a succulent, germinated and continued development under a warming scenario. Thermal germination requirement (degree day sum) was calculated for each species and field soil-temperature recordings indicate that this is satisfied as far south as 72° S. Here, we show that the establishment potential of non-native species, in number and geographical range, is considerably greater than currently suggested by species distribution modelling approaches, with important implications for risk assessments of non-native species along the Antarctic Peninsula. Stef Bokhorst et al. simulate a warming scenario in Antarctic soil under laboratory conditions and report the germination and growth of sixteen non-native plant species. These experimental results, combined with calculations of thermal germination requirement at +3 °C and +5 °C warming scenarios demonstrate that the risk of establishment by non-native species in Antarctica may be greater than previously suggested by species distribution modelling approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parts of Antarctica were amongst the most rapidly changing regions of the planet during the second half of the Twentieth Century. Even so, today, most of Antarctica remains in the grip of continental ice sheets, with only about 0.2% of its overall area being ice-free. The continent's terrestrial fauna consists only of invertebrates, with just two native species of insects, the chironomid midges Parochlus steinenii and Belgica antarctica. We integrate ecophysiological information with the development of new high-resolution climatic layers for Antarctica, to better understand how the distribution of P. steinenii may respond to change over the next century under different IPCC climate change scenarios. We conclude that the species has the potential to expand its distribution to include parts of the west and east coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula and even coastal ice-free areas in parts of continental Antarctica. We propose P. steinenii as an effective native sentinel and indicator species of climate change in the Antarctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sixty-seven species of diatoms of 28 genera were identified in Core GC03-C2 acquired from the north slope of Elephant Island, Antarctic Peninsula. The number of diatom valves per gram of dry sediment ranged from 0.2∼17.3×10g, and these were dominated by Fragilariopsis kerguelensis (65.8%). Diatom assemblage analysis reconstructed the Quaternary paleoclimatic change the Elephant Islands. Four diatom assemblage zones were identified according to the frequency of critical taxa as follows: zone I, from 830 to 710 cm (Antarctic Cold Reversal); zone II, from 700 to 550 cm (Deglaciation zone); zone III, from 540 to 260 cm (warm period; Holocene); and zone IV, from 250 to 0 cm (cool period; Holocene). The high abundance of reworked species includes Actinocyclus ingens, Denticulopsis hustedtii, D. praedimorpha, and D. dimorpha appeared in Zone I by turbidity currents and ice rafting in the area during the glaciations-deglaciation event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly since the 1950s. This pronounced and isolated warming trend is collectively captured by 29 twentieth-century climate hindcasts participating in the version 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. To understand the factors driving warming trends in the hindcasts, we examine trends in Peninsula region's atmospheric heat budget in every simulation. We find that atmospheric latent heat release increases in nearly all hindcasts. These increases are generally anthropogenic in origin, and account for about 60% of the ensemble-mean warming trend in the Peninsula. They are driven primarily by well-understood features of the anthropogenic intensification of global hydrological cycle. As sea surface temperature increases, moisture contained in atmospheric flows increases. When such flows are forced to ascend the Peninsula's topography, enhanced local latent heat release results. The mechanism driving the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is therefore clear in the models. Evidence for a similar mechanism operating in the real world is seen in the increasing snow accumulation rates inferred from ice cores drilled in the Peninsula. However, the relative importance of this mechanism and other processes previously identified as potentially causing the observed warming, such as the recent sea ice retreat in the Bellingshausen Sea, is difficult to assess. Thus the relevance of the simulated warming mechanism to the observed warming is unclear, in spite of its robustness in the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show an annual overview of the sea-air CO2 exchanges and primary drivers in the Gerlache Strait, a hotspot for climate change that is ecologically important in the northern Antarctic Peninsula. In autumn and winter, episodic upwelling events increase the remineralized carbon in the sea surface, leading the region to act as a moderate or strong CO2 source to the atmosphere of up to 40 mmol m–2 day–1. During summer and late spring, photosynthesis decreases the CO2 partial pressure in the surface seawater, enhancing ocean CO2 uptake, which reaches values higher than − 40 mmol m–2 day–1. Thus, autumn/winter CO2 outgassing is nearly balanced by an only 4-month period of intense ocean CO2 ingassing during summer/spring. Hence, the estimated annual net sea-air CO2 flux from 2002 to 2017 was 1.24 ± 4.33 mmol m–2 day–1, opposing the common CO2 sink behaviour observed in other coastal regions around Antarctica. The main drivers of changes in the surface CO2 system in this region were total dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity, revealing dominant influences of both physical and biological processes. These findings demonstrate the importance of Antarctica coastal zones as summer carbon sinks and emphasize the need to better understand local/regional seasonal sensitivity to the net CO2 flux effect on the Southern Ocean carbon cycle, especially considering the impacts caused by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]